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05-16

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8

Baseball Therapy: Let's Assume the Ball Isn't Juiced ...
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-09

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4

Baseball Therapy: Do Strikeouts Spread?
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-02

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7

Baseball Therapy: Is the Whole the Sum Of Its Parts?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-25

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6

Baseball Therapy: The Disappearing Left Fielder?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-18

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4

Baseball Therapy: Reliably Stable (You Keep Using That Word)
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-11

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7

Baseball Therapy: Whatever Happened to Predictability?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-04

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5

Baseball Therapy: Stop Shifting (So Much)
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-28

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14

Baseball Therapy: Let's Fix the Pace-of-Play Problem
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-22

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3

Baseball Therapy: The Secret Powers of the Foul Ball
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-14

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11

Baseball Therapy: Bring Back Ball Four
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-07

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2

Baseball Therapy: Is Defense Slump-Proof?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-28

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7

Baseball Therapy: Baseball Needs Some New Words
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-21

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7

Baseball Therapy: Is Win Probability Broken?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-15

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4

Baseball Therapy: Taking the Weirdness Out of Baseball
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-08

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3

Baseball Therapy: The Minor League Milestone Chart
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-01

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9

Baseball Therapy: Blame it on the Plane
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-24

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1

Baseball Therapy: Let's Dig Into These Tunnels
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-17

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8

Baseball Therapy: What Does Batter/Pitcher Matchup Data Tell Us?
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-11

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10

Baseball Therapy: Grinding On Grounders
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-04

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26

Baseball Therapy: The Bullpen of My Dreams
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-23

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9

Baseball Therapy: Worrying About the Money
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-13

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5

Baseball Therapy: The Questions We Can't Answer
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-09

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7

Baseball Therapy: The New CBA, By The Numbers
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-30

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3

Baseball Therapy: The 26th Man
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-17

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2

Baseball Therapy: Can a Closer be Worth $100 Million?
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-08

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2

Baseball Therapy: The Million Dollar Pillow Fight
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-01

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0

Baseball Therapy: I Don't Know What You'll Do Next Summer
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-25

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4

Baseball Therapy: Stop, Miller Time.
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-18

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4

Baseball Therapy: Getting to the Bottom of the Barrel
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-12

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9

Baseball Therapy: Cy Young Catchers
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-05

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3

Baseball Therapy: How Much Is Theo Epstein Worth?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-27

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2

Baseball Therapy: Bullpen Contagion
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-20

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6

Baseball Therapy: Is The American League Just Better?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-13

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3

Baseball Therapy: Should MLB Go For the Gold?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-07

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2

Baseball Therapy: Stop Blaming the September Call-Ups!
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-01

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6

Baseball Therapy: Let's See if We Can Get a Handle on Zach Britton's Cy Young Case
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-23

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3

Baseball Therapy: If I Had A Million Dollars
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-16

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29

Baseball Therapy: Rage Over Roids
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-09

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1

Baseball Therapy: Learning A New Position Is Free
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-03

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4

Baseball Therapy: What Would 7-Inning Baseball Look Like?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-26

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8

Baseball Therapy: Growing Zobrists
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-19

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4

Baseball Therapy: The Pink Elephant Effect
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-06

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7

Baseball Therapy: ...Although I Have No Idea How We'd Measure That
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-28

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2

Baseball Therapy: Dollhouses and Sandboxes
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-31

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3

Baseball Therapy: The Knee
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-24

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4

Baseball Therapy: Framing the At-Bat
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-11

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8

Baseball Therapy: The Even Slightly More Convincing Argument Against the Shift
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-03

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10

Baseball Therapy: The Pretty Good Case That the Shift Doesn't Work
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-27

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7

Baseball Therapy: Can Teams Come Back From a Comeback?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-19

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17

Baseball Therapy: The One About Exit Velocity
by
Russell A. Carleton

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February 21, 2017 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Is Win Probability Broken?

7

Russell A. Carleton

Super Bowls and presidential elections can get you thinking about all sorts of things.

It’s probably a sign of how long we’ve been without baseball that this week’s column was inspired by football. A couple of weeks ago, the Annual Ultimate Flying Handegg Game of Doom was played, and since I live in Atlanta I was vaguely aware of one of the teams playing in the game. According to conversations that I overheard at the water cooler, the Falcons were up 28-3 at one point, but didn’t win. According to various win probability models of football, at one point the Falcons were considered to have a 99 percent chance to win the game. Of course, that didn’t actually happen. So, can we believe win probability models anymore?

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February 15, 2017 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Taking the Weirdness Out of Baseball

4

Russell A. Carleton

One little (proposed) rule changes and so many side effects.

Let me begin by laying my cards on the table. I have a soft spot in my heart for post-apocalyptic survivalist fiction. What would happen if it were really the end of the world as we knew it and we didn’t feel fine? What would happen if all of the phones and lights and motorcars on which we have come to rely were taken away suddenly and we had to survive off the land, Gilligan’s Island style? Now, I’d never want to actually live that way, but it’s fun to torture the edges of anything, including our notions of civilization.

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Teams might be losing potential major leaguers at the intersection of human development and player development.

As a dad of three (and soon to be two more!) I’ve seen my share of developmental milestones. I’ve watched my daughters take their first steps, say their first words, and attend their first baseball games. I even took my oldest daughter to her first no-hitter, which also happened to be my first time seeing a no-hitter. In the ninth inning, I turned to her and, speaking more to my own sense of reverie than anything else, told her that I wished she were older so that she could really appreciate what she was seeing.

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February 1, 2017 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Blame it on the Plane

9

Russell A. Carleton

Taking a needed second, deeper look at jet lagged baseball players.

Last week, there was an article making the rounds about a baseball study that was published in an actual scientific journal! The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) and written by researchers Alex Song, Thomas Severini, and Ravi Allada of Northwestern University, looked at major-league games from 1992-2011. They specifically looked at the effects of travel across time zones for teams.

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January 24, 2017 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Let's Dig Into These Tunnels

1

Russell A. Carleton

Getting started with the many new possibilities.

With the release of BP’s new data on pitcher tunnels, the idea is that one way a pitcher can fool the hitter is to make sure that his pitches all look the same as they fly through the air toward the batter, until they get to the point where the batter has to make his decision of whether he will swing, and if so, where he will aim his bat. If a pitcher can keep all the pitches going through the same “tunnel” and have the break (or lack thereof) be a surprise that reveals itself only after the batter has started his swing, then he’s going to get more swings and misses and weakly hit balls.

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Have we been too quick to dismiss the value of batter vs. pitcher histories?

Because it’s Hall of Fame week, there have been plenty of Edgar Martinez partisans out there making the case for the former Mariners third baseman/designated hitter. Martinez’s case is dulled somewhat by the fact that he spent so much of his career designated to hit, and perhaps more damning that he didn’t reach 3,000 hits nor 500 home runs (nor 50 stolen bases) for his career.

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January 11, 2017 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Grinding On Grounders

10

Russell A. Carleton

Does the grind of the regular season cause fielders to get worse on ground balls?

Those lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer seem so far away. It’s been more than two months since the end of the baseball season and the most interesting thing to talk about in January is Hall of Fame voting. Pitchers and catchers don’t report for another month. We have reached the hungry season where even rumors of what some utility infielder might do next year counts as news. Baseball fandom is a cycle of saturation and deprivation.

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January 4, 2017 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: The Bullpen of My Dreams

26

Russell A. Carleton

Are modern managers misusing their bullpens or is there actually a good reason why leverage doesn't determine reliever usage?

“Doc, I had that dream again.”

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Internships are the clearest paths to jobs in baseball, but the system knocks out candidates before they even have a chance.

Last week, Braves general manager John Coppolella did something that most GMs would never dream of doing. He got on Twitter and took questions. It’s something that he does once in a while as part of his #AskCoppy series. Most of the questions were about various Braves personnel, along with a few “get to know you” questions.

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Gambler's falacies among umpires and social capital in clubhouses.

I’d like to do something entirely theoretical. I’d like to propose some studies that will likely never actually see the pages of Baseball Prospectus, but would be fun to do anyway. Since it’s the offseason, let’s have some fun.

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Breaking down all the changes--and non-changes--in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which seemingly pushes MLB closer to a salary cap.

There will be baseball next year!

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November 30, 2016 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: The 26th Man

3

Russell A. Carleton

LOOGYs? Speed? Defense? Dads? How should teams fill a potential 26th spot on the roster.

Negotiations for MLB’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) are heating up, and one item reportedly being discussed is the possible addition of a 26th roster spot. It would be the first expansion of active rosters in a very long time and, if it happens, would bring up the question of what teams will do with that 26th spot.

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