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Baseball Therapy 

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05-20

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19

Baseball Therapy: Would the Astros' Piggyback Starters Model Work in the Majors?
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-14

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17

Baseball Therapy: How Reliable Are Our Fielding Metrics?
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-09

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5

Baseball Therapy: Should I Worry About My Favorite Pitcher?
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-06

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7

Baseball Therapy: What is a Good Hitting Coach Worth?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-29

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16

Baseball Therapy: On the Evolution of the Patient Hitter
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-22

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8

Baseball Therapy: What is a Good Pitching Coach Worth?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-15

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35

Baseball Therapy: Boys Will Be Boys?: The Carlos Quentin and Zack Greinke Story
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-08

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43

Baseball Therapy: Rethinking Randomness: Pitchers and Their BABIPs
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-27

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9

Baseball Therapy: The Lessons of Lohse
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-25

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34

Baseball Therapy: Could the All-Bullpen Approach Actually Work?
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-21

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25

Baseball Therapy: Is Brandon Inge Worth 10 Wins Behind Closed Doors?
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-18

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14

Baseball Therapy: You Gotta Keep 'Em Separated
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-11

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21

Baseball Therapy: Maybe I'm Wrong
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-04

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22

Baseball Therapy: Of Dogs, Men, and Stolen Bases
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-26

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10

Baseball Therapy: Can't Buy Me Chemistry?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-18

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23

Baseball Therapy: What Really Predicts Pitcher Injuries?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-11

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25

Baseball Therapy: How to Measure Clubhouse Chemistry
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-28

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25

Baseball Therapy: Fact or Fiction: The Verducci Effect
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-21

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6

Baseball Therapy: Pitchouts and My Underage Gambling Problem
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-14

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22

Baseball Therapy: Does Having a Veteran Around Help Young Players?
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-10

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14

Baseball Therapy: Lessons from the Hall of Fame Vote
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-07

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7

Baseball Therapy: What Really Happens When a Baseball Player Turns 18
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-17

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9

Baseball Therapy: There is No Unicorn
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-10

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3

Baseball Therapy: Do Closers Age Differently Than Other Relievers?
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-03

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14

Baseball Therapy: Does the Way the Draft Works Now Hurt Bad Teams?
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-28

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15

Baseball Therapy: The Truth About Adderall
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-26

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3

Baseball Therapy: The 2012 Silly Awards
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-19

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5

Baseball Therapy: Defining Change in Player Performance from Year to Year
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-12

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21

Baseball Therapy: Assessing the Risk: Hamilton, Greinke, and Mental Health
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-05

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13

Baseball Therapy: In Praise of the Modern Bullpen
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-29

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21

Baseball Therapy: The Proper Care and Feeding of Minor Leaguers
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-22

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9

Baseball Therapy: Are Three-True-Outcomes Players Better in the Playoffs?
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-15

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19

Baseball Therapy: The Case for Cano
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-11

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2

Baseball Therapy: Is Joe Saunders a Double Play Machine?
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-02

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9

Baseball Therapy: WARP for People Who Didn't Like Math Class
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-01

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9

Baseball Therapy: When Do Players Stop Developing?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-28

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22

Baseball Therapy: A Sabermetric Case for Miguel Cabrera's MVP Candidacy
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-24

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8

Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran, Part 3: Smoking, Hitting, and the Search for an 80 Brain
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-21

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18

Baseball Therapy: Wild-Card Game Theory
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-18

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3

Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran, Part 2: Reading and Fear of Failure
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-10

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16

Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran, Part 1: Intro and Losing Focus
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-05

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43

Baseball Therapy: Is There Really Racism in the Broadcast Booth?
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-27

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27

Baseball Therapy: One-Run Winners: Good or Lucky?
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-20

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9

Baseball Therapy: Are Closers Worse When They're Surprised?
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-06

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28

Baseball Therapy: So You Wanna Be a Manager
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-30

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1

Baseball Therapy: Seven Minutes of Terror
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-24

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6

Baseball Therapy: It Happens Every May
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-16

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16

Baseball Therapy: It's a Small Sample Size After All
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-09

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67

Baseball Therapy: Hire Joe Morgan
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-03

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29

Baseball Therapy: Why Are Games So Long?
by
Russell A. Carleton

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Considering the pros and cons of an innovative experiment.

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article in which I suggested that teams might benefit from going to a model that gets rid of the traditional starting pitcher. Instead of having five men who are expected to go 6-7 innings over 100 pitches, I suggested a model in which three pairs of pitchers each throw 50 pitches, and on the third day, they would pitch again, in fulfillment… I should stop there. I argued that a team that committed to that model could leverage a group of (cheap!) pitchers who were good for a couple innings, but not for six. In this way, a team could get the same sort of results that they might expect from having a bunch of pretty good starters, but for a fraction of the (David) Price.

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How long fielding stats take to stabilize.

A little more than a week ago, Jon Heyman of CBS sent out a tweet wondering why it was that Starling Marte and Bryce Harper had the same WAR. Heyman was quoting Baseball-Reference's version of WAR, which at that moment in time showed Marte and Harper tied at 1.7 wins. Harper had clearly been the superior hitter, but drilling down, it turned out that the fielding metric used by Baseball-Reference loved Marte's defense enough (and thought Harper's was average enough) to call them equals.

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When pitching stats stabilize.

Of course. He's a pitcher.

Read the full article...

In some cases, quite a bit.

Two weeks ago in this space, I asked what a good pitching coach—someone like noted magician Leo Mazzone—is worth to a major-league team. I came up with an estimate that Mazzone might have been worth four wins to the Braves (and Orioles) per year during his tenure.

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Have hitters become too passive, or is there something else going on?

Last week, in an article in Sports Illustrated, Tom Verducci put forth an argument that the modern game of baseball has a problem. Hitters, he claimed, have become too passive in their approach at the plate as they attempt to drive up the pitch counts of the opposing pitcher. He mixes together a couple of case examples (Joey Votto, Jayson Werth) with some data that appear to show that hitters have become more passive in their approach over time, and are paying for it in declining run production. Maybe Joey and Jayson, and by proxy the rest of the baseball players out there, should swing the bat a little more.

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April 22, 2013 5:46 am

Baseball Therapy: What is a Good Pitching Coach Worth?

8

Russell A. Carleton

Assigning a value to the coaches behind the arms.

Leo Mazzone is a genius. Dave Duncan can take a scrap heap veteran and turn him into something useful. Don Cooper is dreamy. Right?

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How baseball's latest brawl was emblematic of American culture.

Last Thursday night, in the bottom of the sixth inning of the Dodgers-Padres game—which the Dodgers led 2-1 at the time—Zack Greinke hit Carlos Quentin with a 3-2 pitch. Words were exchanged, and Quentin (6'2", 235 lbs) charged the mound. Greinke (6'2", 195 lbs) tried to mosh with Quentin, leading with his left (non-pitching) shoulder, but Quentin had a 60-foot running start and 40 pounds’ worth of advantage. In the classic physics equation, force equals mass times acceleration. Quentin had the advantage on both counts.

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Are we still too accepting of the idea that pitchers have little to no control over balls in play?

I think that we've really misunderstood pitcher BABIP over the years.

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March 27, 2013 5:00 am

Baseball Therapy: The Lessons of Lohse

9

Russell A. Carleton

Does the hard time Kyle Lohse had finding a job suggest that we should change the draft pick compensation system?

He finally signed. Kyle Lohse finally signed with someone, and I hope we all learned something in the process. No, not that his last name is not spelled L-O-S-H-E. There has to be a bigger moral to all of this, right? At the end of every long saga, there's a scene where the characters sit down together and rehash all that has happened, take stock of it, and generate some pithy phrase that encapsulates the whole story.

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Considering all the pros and cons of a revolutionary way to structure a roster.

Baseball games come with built-in subtitles. Dwight Gooden vs. Roger Clemens in the 1986 World Series. Bob Gibson vs. Denny McClain in the 1968 World Series. Kyle Lohse vs. Ross Detwiler in Game 4 of the NLDS last year. It's one thing to see a game between the Yankees and Tigers, but it's an entirely different game if CC Sabathia is pitching against Justin Verlander. And no one ever subtitles the game A-Rod vs. Miguel Cabrera.

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An attempt to quantify the effect a good clubhouse guy has on his teammates.

Brandon McCarthy thinks that Brandon Inge is worth 10 wins or so to a team behind closed doors. Jonny Gomes, too. Participating in a player panel at the SABR Analytics Conference earlier this month, McCarthy posited that if Inge and Gomes had been removed from the 2012 Oakland A's, they might have fallen from a 94-win team to a 70-win team, purely by virtue of being deprived of the effect the two players had in the clubhouse. According to WARP, Gomes was worth 2.2 wins last year, while Inge was worth 0.6. So, assuming that if neither had been on the team, they would have been replaced by... well, replacement level players, that means that Inge and Gomes somehow combined for 21.2 wins just by being good guys in the clubhouse.

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March 18, 2013 5:00 am

Baseball Therapy: You Gotta Keep 'Em Separated

14

Russell A. Carleton

Does separating starters of the same type in the same rotation make sense?

It's the time of year when managers start thinking about games that will actually count. Positional battles are heating up, because decisions need to be made. Opening Day starters are being named. Variations in lineups are being considered, for facing righties, lefties, and Pat Venditte. Your favorite team has spent the spring trying to decide between two players, both of whom are relative unknowns. Due to the 50/50/90 rule (when you have a 50/50 chance of getting something right by chance, you will get it wrong 90 percent of the time), they will pick the wrong utility infielder and the other guy will become a decent starter for some other team.

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