Analyze This is a new weekly blog series in which Special Assistant Jesse Behr looks at a variety of intriguing and comparable stats that could stir up some discussion. Today, we’ll look at Javier Vazquez’s two adventurous campaigns with the New York Yankees.

August 26, 2004 – NY Yankees vs. Cleveland
1.1 IP, 5 H 6 E, 2 BB, 1 SO

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Analyze This is a new blog series in which special assistant Jesse Behr looks at a variety of intriguing and comparable stats that could stir up some discussion. Today, we’ll look at how a few key players have fared since getting dealt this past July in order of descending VORP:

Diamondbacks RHP Daniel Hudson

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Julio Borbon’s statistical low point came on May 6th. Following a game against Kansas City where he went 0-4 in a 13-run Ranger effort, Borbon’s slash line dipped to .184/.202/.230.  He had come to the plate 91 times, collected just two extra base hits (both triples) and had just a single walk against 14 strikeouts.  The following evening, he went 2-3 and effectively took his season off life support.  In the 143 plate appearances since then, he’s hit .364/.397/.477.

The improved batting average is great, but what you really want is for Borbon to use his wheels and rack up the steals for your team.  Unfortunately, while he’s been getting on base more, the steals haven’t followed.  In fact, it’s been an outright disappointing base stealing year for the Ranger outfielder.  Here are his various base running rates from his two years in the majors:

Russell Martin was bound to regress a little after the fantasy nightmare that was the 2009 season. After posting batting averages in the .280-.290 range in each of his first three seasons, he batted .250 thanks to a career-low .284 BABIP. After hitting double-digit home runs in those three seasons, he hit just seven homers in 2009, posting a puny .079 ISO. And after averaging 20 steals in his last two full-time seasons, he only swiped 11 bags. Martin probably isn't the home run hitter he was in 2007 (HR/FB% of 12.2%), but neither is he the popless guy of 2009 (5.4% HR/FB%). With a regression to his career HR/FB% and BABIP, you could once again expect something close to the 2008 version of Martin.

But that will have to be put on hold as Martin will be out 4-6 weeks with a groin pull to start the year. Martin's replacements are fantasy duds. A.J. Ellis will get the bulk of the time at catcher, with Brad Ausmus serving his honorary backup/mentor role. In the minors, Ellis was known for one thing: drawing walks. In 1795 minor league PA, he's drawn 273 walks while striking out 248 times. He also has a minor-league ISO of just .100, with only 17 home runs. Essentially, he walks like Adam Dunn, with Juan Pierre power and Bengie Molina speed. Ausmus is a man who needs no introduction, because he should never be on your fantasy team.

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Jon Sciambi, who does play-by-play of Major League Baseball games for ESPN, has been kind enough to grace the Baseball Prospectus site with a guest column.

Let me tell you about an argument I had with Chipper Jones. Last year, I came across an interesting nugget on Fangraphs while doing pre-game prep: Besides Albert Pujols, Chipper sees the fewest first-pitch strikes in the majors.

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Before the season started, this website ran a series of team previews called "Hope and Faith" in which the writers gave a scenario in which each of the 30 major-league clubs could win it all in 2007. That series title was a play on one of Commissioner Bud Selig's favorite phrases, in which he likes to say fans can now use that phrase more than ever because Major League Baseball's revenue-sharing plan has brought about parity.

While fans in places like Pittsburgh, Kansas City and St. Petersburg might have a problem buying into hope and faith, the participants in this year's League Championship Series show that a large payroll does not automatically guarantee a team an invitation to October. In fact, three of the four teams still standing began the season with payrolls among the eight lowest in the major leagues. The Indians ranked 23^rd among the 30 clubs at $62 million, while the Rockies were 25^th at $54 million, and the Diamondbacks were 26^th at $52 million. The Red Sox are the last of the big spenders still playing, as their Opening Day payroll of $143 million was second in the majors only to the $190 million spent by the Yankees, who have already been knocked off by the Indians in the ALDS.

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Itís been an unfortunate part of writing for BP that Iíve written a number of words about the passing of friends. Today, Iíve got another obituary to write, but this one is not in the least bit painful.

Baseball analysis is dead.

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I was working the city desk on a slow night in May when my phone started ringing off the hook. It was Skip, a dish jockey at a midtown chop house; just one of the dozens of soda jerks, bellboys, elevator operators, manicurists, hack drivers, switchboard divas, pin monkeys, and counter clerks I kept on retainer to feed me tidbits of dope from which I could build stories. I was only two years on the job and still needed a magnifying glass to find something to shave every morning, but I knew this much: you're only as good as your leads.

"What's on your lip, Skip?"

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On being down 2-0
For those still floating on the artificial high of

Scott

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Baltimore Orioles

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I understand why sports columnists write about their soul-rending debates over who should get their MVP or Cy Young vote (or hypothetical vote). When I wrote for the Daily Prospectus once in a while, it was easy to write when the Muse spoke to me (of games and the men, skilled in all forms of contending). Now that I'm trying to work in a regular, longer format, the blank Document1 window stares back at me as I go through that week's notes, and I find myself wishing I had something as easy, as gift-wrapped for discussion as who I'd vote for my MVP and Cy Young.

It's been suggested that there should be different awards, so the MVP would be split into (essentially) the Best Player and the Best Player for a Contender Awards (stackable). This won't ever happen, if for no other reason than the fact that MVP votes are writers who need topics, and no topic's better than themselves and the importance of their jobs.

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The most rewarding thing about getting into sabermetrics is having more tools on the workbench. To me, it's what Prospectus is all about: furthering our understanding of baseball, the same as SABR, or Retrosheet, or in a weird way, the bartender who insists on telling me stories of how Bob Gibson would pitch to the score. I'm probably the least stat-heady member of the authors, prone to taking shortcuts to rough some stats out and see if there's something interesting there instead of making sure I've included sacrifice bunts in my runner advancement data. But I love the investigation.

There's been a rumor that Freddy Garcia, who last year appeared to be an ascending ace, has been tipping his pitches, and that's why opposing teams have been teeing off on him. I regard stories like this with a lot of skepticism: most pitching coaches watch a lot of video and wouldn't be oblivious to this sort of thing, so the possibility a pitcher's struggling and, say, Bryan Price didn't think of it is slim. What happens in a local media cycle is this:

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