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05-03

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2

Draft Study
by
Adam McInturff

05-03

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2

Pebble Hunting: Clayton Kershaw's 28 'Mistakes' Last Month
by
Sam Miller

05-03

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1

Notes from the Field: May 3, 2016
by
BP Prospect Staff

05-03

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8

Closer Report: Week Five
by
Matt Collins

05-03

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6

Minor League Update: Games of Monday, May 2nd
by
Mark Anderson

05-03

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1

Expert FAAB Review: Week Five
by
Mike Gianella

05-03

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7

Baseball Therapy: The Pretty Good Case That the Shift Doesn't Work
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-03

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0

Rubbing Mud: Stop What You're Doing And Consider The Cubs' Incredible Defense
by
Matthew Trueblood

05-03

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0

What You Need to Know: Nomar Mazara Makes Five Of Us Look Smart
by
Daniel Rathman

05-02

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0

BP South Side
by
Frank Firke

05-02

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2

The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, May 2
by
Matt Sussman

05-02

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7

Players Prefer Presentation: Upon Further Review, We Will Never Be Happy
by
Meg Rowley

05-02

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6

Prospectus Feature: I Come to Praise Quality Starts, Not to Bury Them
by
Rob Mains

05-02

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5

An Agent's Take: Arizona Surprise
by
Joshua Kusnick

05-02

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3

Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 2, 2016
by
BP Prospect Staff

05-02

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5

Minor League Update: Games of April 29-May 1
by
Christopher Crawford

05-02

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5

What You Need to Know: Zimmermann Dealin'
by
Ashley Varela

05-02

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6

The Buyer's Guide: Patrick Corbin
by
J.P. Breen

04-29

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2

What You Need to Know: Meet the Phillies
by
Nicolas Stellini

04-29

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3

The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 29
by
Matthew Kory

04-29

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1

Raising Aces: Debut Ante: Jose Berrios
by
Doug Thorburn

04-29

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0

The Call-Up: Michael Fulmer
by
Grant Jones and J.P. Breen

04-29

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0

The Call-Up: Sean Manaea
by
Grant Jones and George Bissell

04-29

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Gabe Kapler, Dodgers Player Development Director
by
Wilson Karaman

04-29

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19

Fifth Column: The Shift: I Am Girardicus
by
Michael Baumann

04-29

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5

Youth Movement: Baseball PROSPECT-us Mailbag
by
Mark Anderson

04-29

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1

Prospectus Feature: The Differences Between Latin Pitching Schools
by
Octavio Hernández

04-29

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8

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week Five
by
Greg Wellemeyer

04-29

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7

Deep League Report: Week Four
by
Scooter Hotz

04-29

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0

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 84
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-29

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7

Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, April 28th
by
Mark Anderson

04-29

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8

Free Agent Watch: Week Four
by
George Bissell and J.J. Jansons

04-29

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2

Prospectus Feature: Goodbye, April: You Are Not Special
by
Rob Mains

04-28

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7

The Stash List: Fourth Edition, 2016
by
J.J. Jansons

04-28

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0

Fifth Column: Chaff
by
Michael Baumann

04-28

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8

Prospectus Feature: Your Favorite Prospect Did Not Take Place
by
Trevor Strunk

04-28

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: The Best Fastballs of the First Few Weeks
by
Wilson Karaman

04-28

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0

TDGX Transactions: Oh the Places You'll Cano
by
George Bissell

04-28

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1

Transaction Analysis: Rochester's Lovely This Time of Year
by
Dustin Palmateer, Nicolas Stellini and Christopher Crawford

04-28

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0

BP Wrigleyville
by
Leigh Coridan

04-28

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4

The View From Behind The Backstop: The Stars are Projectors
by
Jeffrey Paternostro

04-28

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12

Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, April 27th
by
Christopher Crawford

04-28

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1

What You Need to Know: The Braves Might Not Have a Floor
by
Demetrius Bell

04-27

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0

BP Kansas City
by
Craig Brown

04-27

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5

What You Need to Know: David Price is a True Red Sox
by
Emma Baccellieri

04-27

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7

Baseball Therapy: Can Teams Come Back From a Comeback?
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-27

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5

Life at the Margins: In Dusty They Trusty
by
Rian Watt

04-27

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15

Some Projection Left: Tiered Draft Rankings
by
Christopher Crawford

04-27

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5

The Fantasy Verdict: Is Storytime Over?
by
J.P. Breen

04-27

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0

Notes from the Field: Draft Notes: April 27
by
Steve Givarz

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May 3, 2016 6:00 am

Draft Study

2

Adam McInturff

Where does successful high school pitching come from?

Each June, high school pitching in the amateur draft is (more or less) is accepted to be the most volatile demographic. On the flip side, there’s been compelling research suggesting prep hitters from powerhouse baseball states such as California, Georgia, Texas, and Florida have a higher correlation with big-league contributions than high school hitters from non-hotbed states. Numerous components of amateur player development undeniably fall in favor of the hotbed-state hitter, especially relative to the kid coming coming out of the snow: Your typical Georgian, for example, gets to play outdoors year-round, while facing off against higher-quality pitching in the aggregate on a game-to-game basis. More swings for development, and more exposure to the sorts of pitches that force development, makes for a more mature hitter, the eminently logical thinking goes.

However, the valuation in regards to a high school pitching prospect hailing from outside these regions seems to be less “one size fits all” across the industry than it does for a hitter. A high school pitcher from a non-hotbed state usually has more projection remaining mechanically and stuff-wise. Additionally, from an injury-prevention standpoint, they’ve generally thrown a lot fewer pitches and innings overall by the ages of 17 or 18. "You draft hitters from the south, pitchers from the north," one scouting axiom says.

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May 3, 2016 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Clayton Kershaw's 28 'Mistakes' Last Month

2

Sam Miller

On the pitches the best pitcher in baseball has thrown, by one way of measuring it, the worst--and why they didn't hurt him.

An English teacher once gave us a writing assignment: Describe the taste of the best chocolate you ever had, to somebody who has never had chocolate. Without the self-referential crutch (“It tastes like chocolate, but, like, really chocolaty”), how do you convey what makes chocolate good?

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May 3, 2016 6:00 am

Notes from the Field: May 3, 2016

1

BP Prospect Staff

Notes on Chance Sisco, Albert Abreu, and more.

Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles (Double-A Bowie)
Sisco hits from a relaxed upright stance with a slightly-open base. There’s minimal movement in his hands and load before the swing, and his stroke has a “hitterish” appearance with fluid bat-speed and a compact, downward path with a two-handed finish. He’ll show close to average raw power on his best loft contact, though his overall hitting mechanics and swing path lend themselves better to a hit over power type of output; Sisco’s .325 and .109 career batting average and ISO would only further that assertion. I liked the maturity of his overall approach and demeanor in the batter’s box—he continually worked late into counts and carried a seasoned, big-league attitude with him at the plate, never getting too high or low.


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May 3, 2016 6:00 am

Closer Report: Week Five

8

Matt Collins

Surveying the ninth-inning situations around the league.

Welcome back to the Closer Report. We’re a month into the season, and there hasn’t been a ton of major movement in bullpens thus far. Without doing any research on this matter, it feels as if there should be a lot of movement over the next few weeks, as bad performances start to look more permanent. Here is the updated closer grid. As always, changes since last week are highlighted. To the news!

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May 3, 2016 6:00 am

Minor League Update: Games of Monday, May 2nd

6

Mark Anderson

Notes on prospects who stood out yesterday, including Daniel Robertson, Renato Nunez, Angel Perdomo, Amir Garrett, and Yohander Mendez.

Prospect of the Day:

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May 3, 2016 6:00 am

Expert FAAB Review: Week Five

1

Mike Gianella

A look at how the wise guys spent their money in expert leagues this week.

Welcome to The FAAB Review, the series that looks at the expert bidding in LABR mixed, Tout Wars NL, and Tout Wars AL every week in an effort to try and help you, the Baseball Prospectus reader, with your fantasy baseball bidding needs. Bret Sayre and I participate in LABR mixed while I have a team in Tout Wars NL, so I can provide some insight on the bids and the reasoning behind them. LABR uses a $100 budget with one-dollar minimum bids, while the Tout Wars leagues use a $1,000 budget with zero-dollar minimum bids. I will also be including Bret’s winning bids in Tout Wars mixed auction league where applicable.

LABR and Tout Wars both use a bidding deadline of Sunday at midnight ET.

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Reevaluating the shiny new toy.

Here’s a cheeky question that I ask in complete sincerity: How many home runs were hit against The Shift last year? I’m sure someone out there knows the answer to the question, but there are probably more people wondering why I even bothered to ask it. If the ball was hit over the wall, what does it matter whether The Shift was on or not? Either way, the fielders weren’t going to be able to get to it.

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It's ridiculous, is what it is.

The Chicago Cubs’ April was insane, frankly. Through 22 games, they went 17-5 (first team since the 2010 Rays to be that good or better, and before those Rays, it had been since 2003), outscored their opponents by 79 runs (second-best run differential over the first 22 in over 100 years, trailing only the 2003 Yankees; the fourth team in the last decade to outscore opponents by so much over any 22-game stretch), and were on pace to cruise past the all-time record for team walks. Oh, and at 6.18 runs per game, they were on pace to score over 1,000 runs, which would put them in the company of the 1999 Indians, the only team to score that many since MLB became fully integrated.

You probably knew all of that, though, and more to the point, we know none of that will keep up. The Cubs played a very weak April schedule. They got some key hits and strong overall performance from the likes of Matt Szczur and David Ross. They lost Kyle Schwarber for the season and Miguel Montero for at least a couple weeks. Jason Heyward has not made the hoped-for changes to his offensive game, remaining instead a patient hitter capable of hitting the ball hard, but not of getting it off the ground often enough to tap into the full power of that contact. Dexter Fowler played out of his mind for two weeks, but while he’s a better player than the (ahem) market decided he was this winter, he’s still Dexter Fowler. The Cubs aren’t a 110-win team. I’m not sure I would peg their final record any higher today than I would have on Opening Day, all things weighed and accounted for.

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Adam Wainwright is a exit-velo monster at the dish, Dallas Keuchel loses a streak, and Lorenzo Cain has a tough night.

The Monday Takeaway
For those who sought to go out on a limb with their World Series picks this spring, the Rangers represented an alluring dark horse. They were so alluring, in fact, that, at least in this neck of the woods, the horse in question wasn’t dark at all. Five BP’ers, including yours truly, pegged Texas to go all the way in 2016, giving Jeff Banister’s club more backing than any other except the Cubs.

The Rangers had plenty going for them as a tempting pennant pick. They’d have a full season of Cole Hamels. They sported a breakout candidate in Rougned Odor. They’d added a cheap, high-upside bat in Ian Desmond near the end of the offseason. And, beyond all that, the injury-ravaged 2015 outfit had managed to win 88 games and the American League West. But, while I can’t speak for my colleagues, the determining factor behind my preseason vote was the potential for internal reinforcements to greatly bolster the roster midyear.


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May 2, 2016 9:21 am

BP South Side

0

Frank Firke

Looking at the precedents (or lack of precedents) for releasing a player like John Danks at a time like right now.

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Help, I'm alive, my heart's still beating like a Hit List.

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On replay reviews, genies out of bottles, and our nitpicky natures.

Early last week, Yonder Alonso was called out trying to steal second in the top of the second inning. He was initially called safe, but forensic replaying showed he came off the bag just a little bit for just a little bit. The Blue Jays challenged, and Alonso was called out. And then some folks got a little bit grumpy.

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