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Chat: Derek Carty

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday August 27, 2012 2:00 PM ET chat session with Derek Carty.

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BP's fantasy manager answers all the questions about your teams that no one else wants to tackle.

Derek Carty: Good afternoon ladies (hey, I can hope) and gentleman! Whether youíre gearing up for a championship run or retooling for next year, Iím here to answer all your fantasy questions. Letís get started.

exer (Rome, Italy): Which of these young pitchers do you see having the best career? Skaggs, Cashner, Straily and Turner? Thanks!

Derek Carty: Skaggs has the highest upside of the group. Really good stuff, and while he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, he's actually already pretty good. He'd be the best bet.

Will Myers (KC Bound): Assuming I get called up soon, how relevant do I become in fantasy terms?

Derek Carty: It all depends on how you're used. Given how crowded the Royals outfield would become, unless they just say 'screw it' and commit to playing you every day (which is possible), I'd think your value is restricted to AL-only leagues.

Alex (Anaheim): So Ortiz is probably done?

Derek Carty: For the seasons? As a Red Sock? Both could be 'yes.' It sounds like they're going to give him a plasma injection and then wait a week to reevaluate, but it seems entirely possible his season is done. And given the mass payroll exodus for Boston, they could definitely let Ortiz walk this winter.

Trevor24 (Cincy): Do you call-up Billy Hamilton if you are the Red? What do you think about his chances of overtaking Cozart at some point next year?

Derek Carty: I'm not sure all of the specifics with adding him to the 40-man roster, whether they'll need to add him to protect him yet or not, but in terms of what he can do for the club, sure, why not? I'm not sure he's quite ready to hit at the major league level yet, but as a pinch-runner (which they're saying he'd be), he can absolutely be useful. Marginally so, yeah, but at least you give him a taste of the big leagues and a playoff run and get some use out of him.

It might be a little early to talk about him overtaking Cozart, but the Reds do figure to have a decision to make pretty soon.

WesleyTilson (Roanoke, Virginia): I think an under the radar guy in deeper leagues is Jonathan Niese. Do you see him putting up similar numbers moving foward?

Derek Carty: Yes, I agree, and I absolutely do. I think what he's doing now is right about what we can expect of him going forward.

redsoxin2004 (Columbia, CT): Please talk me down from the ledge. Explain to me how this trade really improves the 2014 Red Sox. (Yes, I'm already writing off 2013!)

Derek Carty: I might not be the best guy to try and talk you down, but aside from the tangible return on the deal -- Webster and de la Rosa are good prospects, and Sands has upside -- it clears a ton of aging-player salary off the books. It helps the Sox wipe the slate clean and try again. The AL East is super competitive right now, the current Boston team wasn't getting it done, so they'll try again in a couple years in a way that's maybe more sustainable. That's my best shot :)

Chris (Omaha): The Royals have said that Wil Myers will stay with Omaha as long as they remain in the playoffs. Last year Omaha's last playoff game was September 19. I wouldn't count on Myers this year at all.

Derek Carty: Well there we go. Those of you who have stashed Myers, keep a close eye on Omaha's playoff run.

Sara (Tacoma): Would you trade Ian Kennedy and Tyler Skaggs for David Price in a keeper league, or is that too steep?

Derek Carty: What are the rules of the keeper league? It's all about context.

Michael (Milwaukee): Ernesto Frieri: Buy or Sell? Why?

Derek Carty: Soft "buy." He's the best reliever in the Angels bullpen and is the one getting the majority of the saves right now. They could work Downs or even Walden back into the mix, but Frieri is the best option.

Don H. (Oak Lawn): I'm rebuilding my bullpen, and I'm looking for cheap saves for next season. Given their injuries/surgery, should I buy in on Madson and Soria? I have less concern over Soria, but with Chapman/Marshall in Cincinnati, I have some concerns there.

Derek Carty: If they're cheap and the league is deep, yes. As you alluded to, though, they're far from sure things to even have a chance to close games to start 2013. I probably take Soria before Madson. With how Chapman has been, it seems likely the Reds decline Madson's mutual option this winter, but that doesn't mean anyone else will be knocking down his door to come close games for them. He might have to settle for a setup role to begin. It's really just speculation at this point.

Sara (Tacoma): It's dynasty format, typical scoring (w/ QS, HLD). No limits on how long we keep them; no minor league system. No prices or salaries attached. 20 Teams with 25-man rosters (5 SP and 6 RP slots).

Derek Carty: I might try to find a way to give up a little less, but overall it's not a bad deal if it's the best you can get.

Marco (San Diego): What are your thoughts about Josh Rutledge moving forward? He's likely going to be a 2B but still a lot to like right?

Derek Carty: Yes, there's definitely a lot to like. He doesn't have superstar upside, but he is and should remain a very solid player going forward. He really knows how to hit and should be a .300 hitter with moderate power and speed contributions. Especially as an NL-only player, that has serious value.

eliyahu (DC): Phil Hughes going forward -- fungible starter or poised to break out as #2 guy?

Derek Carty: I still believe he has a little room to grow, but I'm not sure I buy him as a legit number-two, especially for a team like the Yankees. Not necessarily fungible either, maybe a solid number-three guy.

RogerHorfford (Tacoma): In keeper leagues, are you a buyer or seller of Yovani Gallardo after this year?

Derek Carty: I buy him as exactly what he's been over the past couple years. He's not the cream of the crop, but he's a very good pitcher. He's still 27 next year, so I'd have no problem buying in a keeper league.

Corey31 (Detroit): Although he missed his start last week, what do you make of Doug Fister's resurgence in the 2H?

Derek Carty: I think it's mostly just been a correction of some bad luck in the first-half. His peripherals were still good in the first half -- they were actually their best during his worst month, June -- and he was just a bit unlucky. I buy into Fister as like a 3.50 ERA type of guy.

Chillie (Cincinnati): Is Homer Bailey good enough next year or he peaked?

Derek Carty: Nope, I think Bailey will be at least as good as he's been this year and still even has a little upside on top.

Lewis26 (New York): I've been really surprised Wade Miley continues to put up really good numbers. Would you expect regression next year, or do you think he's capable of putting up similar numbers?

Derek Carty: He's definitely not 2.80-ERA good. Some big regression is coming, but if he can wind up as a 4.00-4.25 ERA pitcher, owners should be happy with him. And I think there's a good chance that's the kind of pitcher he is.

Alan32 (At Work): I have Desmond Jennings in a Keeper League. I have been impressed by the power/speed combo in the limited time he's been on the field this year, but the average is nowhere near what I'd like to see. Do you think that his average this year has more to do with the time off and having to re-adjust coming back, or is it a case of what you see is what you get?

Derek Carty: There's certainly upside on his BA, but I wouldn't go into the 2013 season expecting anything more than .250-.260. If he can take that step forward, terrific, but it's not something I would count on happening. It's not something I would pay for.

Short Shorts (Venice Beach): I keep waiting for the sky to fall on Kris Medlen, but he's looking awesome. Assuming he keeps this up, I'm in a 12 team keeper league (15 protected) with shallow pitching (W, ERA, WHIP, K's categories), what do you do?

Derek Carty: I've always really liked Medlen, and I'm glad he's finally getting another chance to start. That said, he's not *this* good, and in a league of your depth, he's probably not at the top of my list to protect. Of course it depends on your other options, but I think he's a mere middle-of-the-road option in a league of that depth.

Eddie (Tampa, FL): C.C. Sabathia has been pretty disappointing to me this year, with the injuries and increasing runners on base, where do you rank him with next year's starters?

Derek Carty: I think you might just have that perception of him. His WHIP is actually the lowest it's been since 2009, so he's not really letting more runners on base. Injuries suck, obviously, but assuming he's healthy going into spring training, I still rank him amongst the game's elite.

dan11995 (ATL): Is Brian McCann done? After injuring his oblique in the 19 inning affair w/Pittsburgh last year, McCann's numbers for the past calender year have been awful. No need to resign a player on the decline, especially when you already have an Uggla sized albatross weighing down the budget.

Derek Carty: No, I don't think so. The only thing that's really out of line with what he's done in the past is his BABIP, which is easy enough to chalk up to bad luck. The power is still there, his plate discipline is still there, so I wouldn't be jumping ship on McCann yet.

Keeper (Deep): Closer Carousel time: 20*35 league, all players have the same salary, how would you rank them? Luke Gergerson, Alfredo Aceves, Sergio Romo, Joaquin Benoit?

Derek Carty: It's still really early, but I'll go Benoit, Aceves, Gregerson, Romo.

Derek Carty: That's going to do it for today guys. Thanks for joining me, and best of luck to you down the homestretch!


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