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Chat: Jason Collette

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday July 11, 2012 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jason Collette.

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Fantasy expert and podcast host extraordinaire Jason Collette stops by to take your questions.

Jason Collette: Connection issue solved...let's do this!

Sara (Tacoma): I'm looking to trade Hamels in a dynasty league. What kind of return should I expect/accept? I'd like to get more pitching back, so something like a 2:1 or 3:1 would work well for me. Thanks!

Jason Collette: When dealing a stud like Hamels, you need quality back and not quantity. Go for a 2:1 deal and get an established pitcher along with a guy with some upside.

Jackson (Charming): What's the best way to go about trading prospects in a dynasty or a keeper? My team has 4-5 guys in the minor that I'd like to capitalize on their believed potential, what's the best way t market/sell them?

Jason Collette: Find the owner who currently has the player that is blocking your prospect. Prospects aren't for everyone - some love them and some ignore them.

Francois (Toronto): Dynasty League: I give Pomeranz + Archer, I get Ubaldo. Yes? no? maybe? Typical stats are used, but K/BB in addition. I have Kershaw, Darvish, and Kennedy; Bundy for the future.

Jason Collette: Maybe....I still believe in Ubaldo a bit and there is a lot of risk/reward in the two kids you are offering. Doesn't wow me, but it passes the sniff test

bmmolter (Worcester): Looking to trade CJ Wilson for some offense. who are some names that spring to mind in a 5x5 roto league w/ obp?

Jason Collette: I traded him for Adam Dunn a few weeks ago in a standard 5x5 league where I was in sore need of power and had a lot of pitching. In an OBP format, that's a fit as well.

Matt (NY): Looking to next year, who would you rather keep....Ian Kennedy, Matt Moore, or Tommy Hanson?

Jason Collette: Matt Moore...see Price 2009 vs Price 2010

lesley (CT): Any reason to own Heath Bell in 10-team? every time my ERA corrects a bit he destroys it...

Jason Collette: If collecting bad contracts and ratios are a category in your league, he's an MVP candidate. Outside of that, nope.

Shane (Riverside, CA): I have Lincecum and I'm in contention, but it's a keeper league. Do you take whatever you can get at this point to try and contend or hold?

Jason Collette: I sell as low as 70 cents on the dollar for him. I see some Kazmir 2.0 issues there with declining velocity and stuff.

Liam (Portland, ME): My league uses contracts and salaries. I have Matt Moore unsigned at $1. What should I do with him - option him for $1 for 2013 or sign him to a 2, 3, or 4 year contract? (Salary goes up by $5 each year)

Jason Collette: I never go more than 3 yrs with any pitcher. At $1, I have no issue going to $16 for him

dave (boston): Best 2nd half bet: Rickie, Ike or Delmon?

Jason Collette: I like Ike

AJ (Lake Tahoe): How did you get started in baseball writing? for BP?

Jason Collette: I found RotoJunkie.com (now rjbullpen.com) on a web search in 1999. I saw nobody was writing about minor leagues for fantasy purposes, so I volunteered. A few years ago, Fanball (RIP) picked me up and then the opportunity to write here came up the same week Fanball had the plug pulled by the conglomerate that owned them. I'm grateful to Bob Kohm and Byron Cox for giving me a chance and their support throughout the years.

mikey (KC): Can I get by with Clippard, Reed, Janssen, Parnell as closers rest of the way? Or need to trade for a stud?

Jason Collette: I see nothing wrong with that mixture.

TomLongwell (Minneapolis): I just traded Andre Ethier for Tim Lincecum, straight up, in my 10 team HTH points league. I know PECOTA loves Lincecum, but did I just go out on a serious limb here?

Jason Collette: High risk, high reward

Renfei (DC): Over/under on these three categories for Ian Desmond this season: .275 AVG, 30 HR, 20 SB

Jason Collette: Under, under, over

Charles (NYC): Random Rays game from last two months: 2nd inning -- Opponent 2, Rays zip... Aside from that, what is your diagnosis of James Shields? The color guys seem to say that his mechanics are different this year, falling off the mound to the first-base side as he completes his motion, and that his "stuff" isn't as sharp as it used to be. He also looks a bit stockier than last year, but I don't know if that means anything.

Jason Collette: I wrote about this a bit on Tuesday. The replacement level defense behind him has been atrocious, particularly on the left side of the infield. Shields went from a 60% groundball guy to a 45% guy since Longoria has left as he appears to be falling back into habits of strikeouts and flyballs because he doesn't trust the guys on the infield behind him. With Zobrist in the OF most games with Joyce out, the IF tends to be Conrad/Keppinger, Johnson, and Rodriguez/Rhymes and Rodriguez is the only defender in that bunch that grades out as even average. I'm currently trying to deal a $16 Scherzer in a 15 team mixed league for a $12 Shields to a guy that needs the K's

Ben (NYC): Ian Desmond is the #1 shortstop on the ESPN Player Rater by a decent margin. Do you see him as a top 3 shortstop the rest of this season?

Jason Collette: Yes, but mainly because the position has been such a disappointment in fantasy baseball this season.

Lorenzo Cain (KC): Assuming I stay healthy, how relevant am I in fantasy? Better than Rajai Davis or Cameron Maybin for example?

Jason Collette: I like all 3 of you because you play for skippers that let you run but I'm still taking you last in that trio.

Mike (Dover AFB): I just started listening to the podcast. You and Sporer have mentioned daily fantasy, scoresheet, diamondmine, and "the game." While I was able to find "the game," where can I find these other formats? Are there any that you and Sporer play that I haven't mentioned? Thanks.

Jason Collette: DiamondMind is run by CDM sports at http://diamondchallenge.cdmsports.com/, and scoresheet is its own format and is found at www.scoresheet.com. I only do roto and this is my first jump into scoresheet

Andy (Pitt): Does Bedard turn it around at all in the 2nd half? Or should I stay away?

Jason Collette: The fact that Bedard is still healthy at this point is a miracle. Don't get greedy

tylerk (Nebrask): Lost Pedroia, is Punto the best pickup or should I be targeting others?

Jason Collette: I'd rather target Elliot Johnson than Punto if he were available.

wes (boston): Bouncebackers for 2nd half: R. Weeks, Ike Davis, Delmon?

Jason Collette: Davis, Delmon, Weeks

Jon (here): Thought I'd built an elite staff for 2nd half with Verlander, Cliff Lee, Strasburg, Haren, Kennedy, Kuroda. Now I'm not sure. Make moves or stay put? We count QS, W and K/9.

Jason Collette: I'd ride it out depending on how long Haren is out with the back.

greg (yesm): Ian Kennedy 2nd half - yay or nay?

Jason Collette: yay, but not YAY. He is what he is and doesn't have a lot of upside or downside.

Brian (Worcester): did you watch the futures game? Who were some of the players that impressed you the most?

Jason Collette: I was only able to catch a few innings as I had some stuff come up. Profar looks amazing, Bethancourt has a howitzer for an arm behind the plate, Gose is an incredible athlete, and Rick Sutcliffe really sucks at commentating.

Tomm (SF): I traded FOR Cliff Lee, Haren, JUpton, Kennedy, Bonifacio and picked up Ike Davis. Keep them all for the 2nd half?

Jason Collette: nice buy lows -- keep them

GhostofDickCheney (The Ether): 20 team h2h, mixed re-draft league, 6x6 (hld, obp). I'm currently in 15th/16th and am 14 games out of the playoffs. I can still make it. My team has been crippled with injuries : I had 7 DL'd at one point, now down to 3 (Crawford, Feliz, Pedroia). My question in two parts: Who are some second half names to target for a rebound? & Generally speaking, is there another way besides trades to really pull oneself out of the gutter and into contention (FA market is pretty barren)

Jason Collette: at this point in the season, trades are all you have but you have less than half the season left as some teams will have played 87 games by the end of this current scoring period. Your bad fortunes may have dug you more of a hole than you can dig out of at this point.

Trevor24 (Phoenix): What kind of 2h do you expect from De Aza?

Jason Collette: More of what he's done so far rather than what he did last year

Justin (Chicago): How much do you believe in Ernesto Frieri long term? I am in a league where saves are pretty valuable, but I have been offered a couple of decent bats in return. Is right now the perfect time to sell high?

Jason Collette: I treat all closers not named Rivera or Papelbon on a year to year basis. They're too damn volatile. Bats for closers is a deal I do every time.

Greg (Milwaukee): Any timeline for Morrow? Would you still buy him with the injury?

Jason Collette: I haven't heard a timeline for him but I'd buy him if he's at a 50% discount from his draft day value

Sully (NYC): How do people play in shallow leagues (12-16 teams)? I've played exclusively in 20-teamers since 04, and tried ONE "normal" league this year... had to opt out.

Jason Collette: I do a 10 team NL & AL only league locally only because we struggle to find owners here in central Florida. I do a 15 team one nationally which is better. Sometimes it is a supply and demand issue and other times, it is a schedule issue as people don't have the time to put in what is truly needed in deeper leagues.

Ryan (Chino, CA): Im looking to buy Lincecum in any format. What should I be offering (if you were his owner)?

Jason Collette: If you offered me Ubaldo Jimenez right now, I'd take it.

dave (boston): Are better things in store for Ian Kennedy? Or only start him on the road?

Jason Collette: more of the same from the 1st half - that's what he is

Short Shorts (San Fran): De Aza or Maybin for Lincecum do you do it in a 5x5 12 team keeper?

Jason Collette: very high on Maybin for the ROS

dogtothedog (toronto): Who is your world series long shot?

Jason Collette: The White Sox

Peter (Eugene, OR): Keeper league (wins, k's, era, whip). I've had some offers for Lincecum, including Marcum, Harrison and Morrow. Would you do any of those, which do you like?

Jason Collette: I would have done Harrison a month ago and I'd still take him as he's the healthiest of that bunch.

BlueJaysFan (Toronto): Strasburg or Moore...who's the better keeper?

Jason Collette: Strasburg

Nathan (Phoenix): Any advice for someone interested in writing for/about fantasy baseball? Somehow, graduate school doesn't seem like it's worth it (not for baseball, obv.).

Jason Collette: Stick with it. If you're writing for site hits, you'll quit 3 months in as nobody will notice your work. Eventually, someone will notice. Check out what Mike & Toz do at http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/ -- that's the model they've used and it has worked out well.

Kelvin (Manhattan): While Encarnacion has been a beast, it's time for me to part with E5 in my keeper. Given his year, do I maybe slightly downgrade at 1B to upgrade elsewhere, or do I shoot high and package him for Votto?

Jason Collette: Aim high with him -- the power is legit but this is him at his best. If you have even a 50% chance at Votto, you have to try.

BlueJaysFan (Toronto): I need a bit of pitching help and have an offer for Lee + 15th rounder (24 rounds) and I'd give up Molina + 5th. To me, that seems a bit much...am I crazy? It's a keeper league and I have Salvador Perez

Jason Collette: split the difference and counter with the 10th. If not, walk

greg (Omaha): Verlander, Strasburg, Cliff Lee, Haren, Kennedy, Kuroda - goot things in store for my 2nd half staff?

Jason Collette: How's the weather there? I'm flying to Omaha once I get on this plane to then drive over to Des Moines (rates were SO much cheaper). 2nd half should be better than the 1st

Sutkis (Tinley Park): In a dynasty or keep, if I'm out of contention: semi-smart move to target the injured guys for cheap (Madson, Vizcaino, D-Hud, Rivera, Beachy, et. al.)?

Jason Collette: hey, I've been to Tinley Park too....Madson, Rivera, Beachy, sure.

Lefty (NC): Do Craig owners need to add Berkman if possible? What do you see happening here in 2nd half?

Jason Collette: They can't take their 2nd best bat out of the lineup. Craig will get his playing time, somewhere.

Sven (Zurich): On the podcast, you and Sporer both agree that banners fly forever. Have you ever seen anyone successfully blow up their team and go the prospect route, then with said team or prospects (or most of them) one day go on to win a title?

Jason Collette: Yep, I've done it. I blew up my 2008 team in one league and then finished in the top 2 spots each of the next 3 years. Don't deal for the Bubba Starling types - go after guys that are in AA/AAA right now that you can get help from in 2013 rather than 2015.

lnodolf (Fillmore, CA): Who has most upside, Devin Morasco or Jean Segura?

Jason Collette: Mesoraco, due to position.

Waiver Wire Gold (10-teamer): Weird problem in 10-team league: can you help me sort through all of these name/upside options on the wire in my shallow league? Anyone a must own for 2nd half? Rickie, Maybin, Berkman, Laroche, Delmon, Kelly Johnson, Markakis, Fowler

Jason Collette: Maybin, Laroche, Johnson, and Fowler would all be on my team

Vic (San Diego): Think Haren can turn it around in the 2H?

Jason Collette: All depends on the back. It's a shame he didn't shut it down earlier rather than try to pitch through it.

Jack in the Box (In N Out): Your all under-25 team, using LF, CF, RF (not OF), one DH, 5 SP? I'll allow you an over-25 guy (if you want) for the DH. Go!

Jason Collette: How dare you mix those 2 establishments together? That's like mixing Kate Upton with Kate Capshaw these days :) LF - Trout, CF - McCutchen, RF - Harper. DH - Upton, 5 P: Strasburg, Moore, Kershaw, Sale, Bumgarner. I love lefties

BlueJaysFan (Toronto): Do you think Profar is worth an early stash since it is unlikely he'll start 2013 with the Rangers?

Jason Collette: Unlikely to start next year

Brian (Worcester): rank mediocre 1b/of for 2nd half in obp league - duda, morneau, c. pena, k. morales, c. lee, d. davis, alonso.

Jason Collette: Lee would be last for me -- ballpark move hurts. Rest of them are fine as they are.

IanField (Oakland): Thoughts on Chris Carter so far and if he can work his was into more playing time?

Jason Collette: I'm amazed he only has 5 K's in his first 18 ABs as I would have thought it would be 15 in his 1st 18. He's only valuable if he's hitting long balls and defense won't allow him more PT as he's all bat.

Elena (Tulsa): Is BP your day job? Also, podcast recording tomorrow?

Jason Collette: I wish it was, but I work in the education market and travel frequently for work. Episode 12 of the podcast will be all interviews: Jonah Keri was recorded yesterday, Jay Jaffe is recording tonight, and Paul & I are chasing one more but we do plan on publishing by Friday morning.

nick (nyc): Making a 2nd half bounceback add: Maybin or Ike?

Jason Collette: I'm trying to get Maybin anywhere I can right now.

Kelvin (Cincy): Aoki's been playing pretty well with more playing time. Do you think he will continue to receive ab's and what kind of 2h runs/sbs/avg would you expect?

Jason Collette: He's been a great $1 buy for people who took the chance. No splits either so he doesn't hurt his own chances. Put me down for 25ish runs and 8-10 steals with a .280 avg

JDub (San Diego): Just looking average, runs and steals, better 2h Alejandro De Aza or Norichika Aoki?

Jason Collette: De Aza

Brian (Worcester): Is it harder to make up ground in a ratio category (in which the larger the population, the harder it is to make a change in placement) or a counting stat (in which opponents only gain, not lose)?

Jason Collette: Ratios are tough because you can't just tally up the difference you have to close while counting categories are easy to do and throwing players at the issue is easier to do. If I'm down in ratios, I throw as many SP as I can at the problem and hope they don't kill it while they help me in K's and maybe wins. If I'm up, I'll work more relievers in to protect those ratios.

Dynasty Depth (Denton): Do I target Taijuan Walker to beef up my already deep rotation, or Oscar Taveras to be my full-time DH? Trade my pick for Billy Hamilton? Order of preference?

Jason Collette: I'd trade my kids for Billy Hamilton in a fantasy league. I want Taveras over Walker.

bmmolter (worcester): what do you see myers doing once he's called up in terms of triple slash? is he worth stashing in a 10 team redraft now? do you think he's up before 7/31?

Jason Collette: if you're in a 10 team redraft and have the roster spot, absolutely. .260/.330/.440 ROS if he were to come up right now.

GTW (Right Coast): What are your thoughts on either Desmond Jennings or B.J. Upton bouncing back after the break? I own both and am willing to sell one of them low for some much needed pitching help. Do you see either of them getting on base more often or hitting for much power? (OPS as 6th category)

Jason Collette: Upton can't make any contact these days. 24 K's in his last 59 AB (40% rate) and he looks awful doing it. Jennings is chasing high fastballs again (go use the new feature on the player cards to check it out!) - I'm hoping to write both up for an article at DRaysBay tomorrow.

Mike (Indy): Harder to do right now: lose 20 lbs, or trade Stanton in a keeper?

Jason Collette: I'd put Richard Simmons on a tee for Stanton to slam with a bat

BlueJaysFan (Toronto): Sheets says he "hasn't felt this good in years"...over under on him making it past 3 starts?

Jason Collette: forget 3 starts, how about 3 innings?

Don (Inwood): 10-team roto for 2nd half: Alexei or KJ at MI? Maybin or Victorino? Ike or LaRoche?

Jason Collette: KJ, Maybin, Ike

BlueJaysFan (Toronto): Not considering position...would you take Profar over Myers? Profar seems to have a little Soriano in him.

Jason Collette: w/o position, no I would not.

Taco Bell (Chipotle): Now how about the C through SS of that under-25 team? :-)

Jason Collette: C - Posey, 1B - Hosmer, 2B - Kipnis, SS - Andrus, 3B - Lawrie

Brian (Cleveland): Have been offered Morrow for Lincecum in a keeper, what do you think?

Jason Collette: Done

wes (east coast): Maybin or Fowler ROS?

Jason Collette: Maybin - Fowler is a home only start for me

Vic (San Diego): What makes you a buyer on Maybin?

Jason Collette: the steals and what he did last year along with some subtle changes he's made at the plate. Tune into Jonah Keri's interview on the podcast this week to hear more.

gus (NJ): What about making up ratios in leagues with GS limits (mine's 200)? I'm in a 10-team league like that and killing everything except ratios. Is it reasonable to roster a bunch of solid ratios RPs to chip away in the 2nd half? If so, who'd you sugest?

Jason Collette: someone like Wade Davis or Jason Grilli..guys that get the work in. You need more than just 1 IP spots

don (follow-up): Would you DROP Victorino, Swisher, De Aza or Ike for Maybin in 10-team? Crowded OF and have Craig to play CI (instead of Ike).

Jason Collette: I'd drop Ike to make room for Maybin's speed and move Craig to CI

Jason Collette: OK, time to get to flying. Thanks for all that participated!


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