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Chat: Jason Collette

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday March 23, 2012 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jason Collette.

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Join Jason for hours of afternoon draft discussion as you prepare to pick players this weekend.

Jason Collette: OK, finally at my hotel in Times Square after the longest shuttle ride from LGA in the history of mankind. Let's have those questions!

Andy McGeady (Dublin, Ireland): What should my beer of choice be for Sunday's Fantasy baseball League of Ireland auction? I'm thinking Smithwick's. (yes this is a serious question - such things can decide the fate of a fantasy franchise!)

Jason Collette: Excellent choice - just practice moderation so you don't end up paying $10 for Brent Morel in an auction as I did in LABR

Paul (DC): There are a couple of new Non-Darvish Japanese pitchers this year: Wei-yin Chin, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Hisashi Iwakuma. Will any of them have decent seasons in America?

Jason Collette: I like Iwakuma's chances more than Chin. Unfortunately, the Mariners gave Millwood a rotation spot over Iwakuma for now but that presents a bit of a draft day bargain.

DandaMan (SeaCliff): Hey Jason, how much playing time do you see John Mayberry & Allen Craig getting? Sleepers? Thanks, Dan

Jason Collette: Mayberry should be a cinch to get 500 PA while Craig is a 50/50. I don't know if Mayberry can be considered a sleeper any longer as he should be a 20+ HR guy & 10 SB guy that will struggle to hit above .270

Sky (The Roc, NY): Jason, what are some of the most important spring battles yet to be decided, where the winner might be worth $5+ just for being a full-timer?

Jason Collette: If the Orioles end up stealing PA's from Reimold to give to Endy Chavez simply because they want a leadoff guy while Roberts is out, there's one. Sean Rodriguez now will get a majority of the playing time early at shortstop with Brignac out with the foot issue and Rodriguez's struggles vs RHP should hold down his value enough at the draft table where he could go for $5-7 and then double that in season because he has the potential to go 20/15

chiefsalsa (Utah): Miggie. With my draft Sunday, I am worried he could not be 3B elig. until the end of April. Who is a good late round 3B to draft in case Miggie misses time?

Jason Collette: Brent Morel or Ty Wigginton for cheap power. Hopefully, you'll only need them 2-3 weeks. I like Morel, but we're also talking about a guy with one good month in his entire career.

TJ (So Cal): Dee Gordon is trending up in mocks. With me drafting 8th I got no shot at Tulo. I don't want to reach for Dee, so give me a good 10th to 15th round starting SS.

Jason Collette: The youngsters are going sky high in auctions and drafts this month. Wait 30 picks after Gordon is taken and grab Bonifacio who is good for 25-30 steals

Chick (Indy): Standard rules, 12 teams. I drew 12th. I am thinking of doubling up on SP and abandoning HR's until later (Dunn, Trumbo, etc.). With steals and runs bountiful later as well, I think this is a good risk. Opinion?

Jason Collette: Don't. A lot of people will chastise people for taking a pitcher in the first two rounds. I am not one of those people but I am one of those that would if you take SP at picks 12 and 13. Dunn has to rebound in a big way and Trumbo has to get playing time and try to get his OBP over .300 this season. Way too risky

Billy (Wildwood, NJ): The hometown creep is big in my league. Phillies go early. How much weight do you put into the "creep" when drafting?

Jason Collette: An extra $2 in auctions and 1 round earlier than ADP in drafts. I don't reach because my competition is reaching. Each time they do, that's a value for me later on.

Worker bee (In hiding): Will Pomeranz and Brothers both make COL's opening day roster? If so, what roles will they have. Asking for a NL only league.

Jason Collette: Everything I've read has Pomeranzs to AAA to start the season so not sure how that holds up. Brothers would be ideal for a setup role but I am a BIG fan of Betancourt who has had the skills to be a closer for a long time now. Draft Brothers for K help in MR rather than what he may get as saves because I don't expet much.

Allan (Vancouver, BC): Hi Jason, 5x5 mixed keeper league with 8 man bench. I need to keep two of Kendrick, Hardy and Storen. I am tempted to throw Storen back due to his elbow issues. Agree or pair with Clippard and dump one of the hitters?

Jason Collette: Kendrick and Hardy -- closers are recyclable parts in a keeper league for me. That would give you a strong MI

chiefsalsa (Utah): One more Miggie question. Would you drop him behind Bautista with this injury? He proved he is no fluke and the Jays got some power to back him up. I am thinking of taking him #1 if I draw it. Miggie was my #1 until this injury.

Jason Collette: I only think the injury costs him a week - not enough for me to take Joey Bats over Cabrera.

Worker bee (In hiding): NL only - whose potential would you be more willing to pay for Cuddyer, Chris Young, or Maybin?

Jason Collette: Cuddyer because he qualifies on the infield and if you use 15 games as your benchmark, he qualifies at 3 positions. Take away that and I love Maybin

Mark Trumbo (Anaheim): Why don't rotoheads and SABR dorks like me? I am ready to punch Brian Kenny in the mouth!

Jason Collette: Kenny is standing on first base waiting giving you that chance knowing that 71% of the time, he'll avoid your punch. You have massive power, stop hitting the ball on the ground so much and you'll be fine.

Worker bee (In hiding): I have accumulated a lot of value players going into the draft. I am thinking of buying a lot of top tier guys that became available this season. If I do, I may not have any buy low guys this year. Bad idea??

Jason Collette: Play year to year and let your in-season record dictate what you do moving forward. Buy as much talent as you can and if your team doesn't perform as you hope it will, trade the top tier guys for better values and try again next season.

Cal (L.I.): Johan excites me. 10 team, NL league. I am thinking maybe the 10th round of reaching for him. Pitchers go early in my league, so what do you think?

Jason Collette: Pitchers coming off of major shoulder surgery do not excite me enough to take them in the 10th round. Ask yourself this - if he wasn't a Met (seeing as you live on Long Island), would you take him in the 10th?

Chris H. (Boise): Would you explain Hanley Ramirez to me? Coming off a bad year, change to 3B, bad attitude, Ozzie will make him cry. But, in mock drafts he goes between 15 and 25. Am I the only one who sees the risk with this flake?

Jason Collette: Tons of risk, but also tons of upside and he qualifies at 3B/SS a week into the season in most leagues. If I'm in a league and he's still there at 20, I pounce. We're talking about a guy that was a top five lock this time last season.

batts40 (IL): NL-only, limited keeper, OPS instead of BA. The following 1b are kept: Sanchez, Berkman, Belt, Votto, Freeman, Posey, Morse. What guy should I target out of the scrap heap that's left? Should I pay overvalue for one of the few decent guys left to make sure I don't end up with James F. Loney?

Jason Collette: Oh joy of joys, the smoke detector in my room is going off. Who let Elijah Dukes in here?

You're talking to the wrong guy - I like Loney out of what is left in your league unless the Ike Davis story doesn't scare you. A 100% healthy Ike Davis would be the guy to get

Mike (OSU): Would you give a pitcher in next week's Japan games a cup of coffee spot start? McCarthy seems a good value. I got him in the 17th round in my mixed, 10 team league.

Jason Collette: Smaller parks, but it's the Mariners. I am starting McCarthy in AL LABR next week. Hell, neither offense it that prolific so it's worth the risk. Ignore the Arizona numbers as that entire league is a hitter's haven.

Cal (L.I.): I do not know why, but with my league, they go pitcher crazy early. And I am a Sox fan! Johan looks to be pretty strong. He would be my 3rd starter.

Jason Collette: I just don't like taking 3 starters in the first 10 rounds of a draft. If the league is zigging toward taking pitchers, zag and pick up all the hitting they're leaving on the table. They'll come crying to you eventually when they're sinking in the power categories

will.I.ain't (Lost in my mind): With Kemp's value so high, what is too high to go in a NL only? He could eat a lot of salary.

Jason Collette: too high would be $45 -- as thin as the NL talent is this season, stars and scrubs strategies are going to be the name of the game

qatman (($19 Soria-less)): Best chance for saves in Seattle after League - Wilhelmsen, Sherrill, Kelley, Ruffin, or other?

Jason Collette: If you think you have to handcuff League, go get Ruffin. I don't think it's necessary though.

Davy (Delco): Mixed, 14 team, two keepers. All 14 guys are back, so no expansion draft this tear. We drew numbers last night. I got the 11. We have until our draft tomorrow to trade. My two keeps are Votto and Verlander. One guy dropped Cliff Lee from his two keepers. Would you trade Votto and the 11th pick for the 3rd pick to take him? I am sure he will be there at the 3.

Jason Collette: I would not. Votto is already worth more than Lee and you're throwing in a draft pick on top of that making it worse.

Chello-619 (The 619): Goldschmidt as my starting 1b? I know I can get him late and fill up my OF early.

Jason Collette: Sure, he's risky with batting average, but the power is legit.

faztradamus (home4weekend): I have both Pujols and Fielder in a dynasty league (20-teams, very deep rosters). I have nothing to write home about at SS or 3B. Which one would you prefer over the next 10 years?

Jason Collette: Pujols won't make it 10 more years, so Fielder. If you have both in a 20 team league, you should still be able to do extremely well with me as your SS or 3B.

qatman ((West Sacramento)): Thanks, was just prospecting since my only other closer is Thornton. Any thoughts on Herrera in KC?

Jason Collette: Holland or Broxton would be the guys in KC and my money is on Holland.

brantparsons (Orlando): Lorenzo Cain has been tearing it up in Spring. Is he the real deal and worth a flyer in 10-team mixed leagues?

Jason Collette: Orlando!! Cain is a slasher with real speed and would work well as a 5th outfielder on the steals alone. I'm a bit worried about Bourgeois taking some PT away from him if Cain struggles but not enough to pass on him.

chiefsalsa (Utah): Who is the #1 RP on your board? In a mixed league, what round would you target him in?

Jason Collette: Kimbrel but he'll be gone before round 6. I don't target high end closers and prefer to go for low Tier II/high Tier III types. 30% of closers lose their job each season - some crappy ones by being crappy and some great ones by getting hurt. I'll spend my $20+ on a safer position.

Chris H. (Boise): I see Angel Pagan not even getting drafted in most mock drafts. Is this nuts? He is a great late round steal. Right?

Jason Collette: Only if you're getting the 2010 Pagan that stayed off the disabled list. He breaks down more often than my Chevy Citation did in college

Joe (Bellvue): Looking forward to my prospect draft next season. Taijuan Walker v. Archie Bradley. Xander Bogaerts v. Javier Baez, Michael Choice v. Rymer Liriano. Who'd you take in those matchups?

Jason Collette: Bradley, Bogaerts, Liriano. Walker is the wildcard for me because he could be the very good version of Edwin Jackson we saw a few years ago or the one that has been around most other seasons.

Shawn (Dallas): When do you see Arenado and J.Paxton up respectively? And what can we expect for '12 and '13 production from them?

Jason Collette: Paxton comes up first and I love him in Safeco but pitch efficiency is an issue. Arenado turned a lot of heads in the AFL and in camp but I wouldn't expect him up until after the break unless he opens up a giant can of whoopass in the PCL to challenge Ron Kittle's numbers of 1982 (go look them up)

Chaz (South Philly): I got a great one 4 ya! I got the 3 pick. The 1 is gonna be Kemp, he already called it. The guy with the 2 is kinda stoopit. I am in his ear telling him Cabrera is hurt bad, might miss a month, so on. He is ready to jump off a ledge. Is it moral to do this? I think its funny to mess with guys heads before the draft.

Jason Collette: There are no friends in fantasy baseball, only obstacles.

chiefsalsa (Utah): To follow up, I reach for closers. In Yahoo mocks, I have seen top shelf guys like Hanrahan and Bell go after the 8th, so I am going to wait this year. For my 3rd closer, which I get about round 18, do you like League, or Francisco of the Mets?

Jason Collette: I like League but you should be happy if either guy is there in the 18th

Teddy (Albany): It is my year to cater the draft. I am doing carved roast beef sandwiches, a Heineken keg and I hooked up my Plasma TV to show the picks with a scroll on the bottom. How cool am I?

Jason Collette: If I weren't in Manhattan drafting for Tout Wars this weekend, I'd drive up and crash your draft. You da man

Billy (Wildwood, NJ): OK. List your top 5 late round, who the Hell is that guy sleepers. Any position.

Jason Collette: Trevor Plouffe, Tyler Flowers, Brian Bogusevic, Hisashi Iwakuma, Brian Matusz

bryn87 (iowa): is starlin castro for real, i got cubs fans in my league and i read that guy who talked about a hometown creep, i want him but i know one of these cubs guys will reach for him

Jason Collette: He's too impatient to hit .300 for a 3rd straight season but 10 HRs & 20+ SB should be guaranteed while he hits in the high 200's. Yea, that's real

Jon KK (Elkhart, Ind.): Jason, thanks for the chat! What prospects do you like to take large leaps up the rankings during this season?

Jason Collette: Jonathan Singleton, Brad Boxberger, Mikie Mahtook, Kolten Wong

Len (New York): Looking for late round flyers. How would you rank these upside OF in a league using OBP: De Aza, Cespedes, JD Martinez, L. Cain, Mayberry or even Harper & Trout Thanks for the help.

Jason Collette: Cespedes would be my favorite there followed by Mayberry and then De Aza. Not looking at high OBPs from the rookies, but will take Trout over Harper for 2012

will.I.ain't (Holding pattern): Does Brandon Belt finally get the everyday chance this season? What do you think he will do with it?

Jason Collette: I think he does and he could have a good Adam LaRoche type season if everything goes right

Jerome (T Hills): Does Grandal make SD roster this year?

Jason Collette: Not a chance. He has 18 PA above AA ball and he needs the regular reps more than he does sitting the pine in San Diego

gls (OKC): I am in Love with Erick Aybar. Will reach for him in the 12th. His numbers warrant a reach at SS. What do you think?

Jason Collette: It's guy love between two guys and Aybar is worth it.

Shawn (Dallas): What is going on w/Mike Montgomery? On the heels of his horrible '11 his spring was downright scary, not just the #s but his velocity. Has the shine dimmed on him? And what do you think a realistic ETA is for D.Bundy in Balt?

Jason Collette: I felt he was rushed in 2010 and paid for it last season. There's nothing wrong with stepping these guys up a level at a time but 150 of his 400 career innings came last season in Omaha.

hip2hops (seattle): What do you see from Nicasio this year? Sounds like he's all but wrapped up a swpot in the Rox rotation, so what kind of IP and WHIP seems reasonable?

Jason Collette: I just traded for him a few minutes ago in my local league giving up a $1 Motte for a $27 Phillips, $8 Nicasio, and $10 Heisey in a 10 team league with inflation. Put me down for 160 IP and a 1.28 WHIP

Brian (Tinley Park): Jason - I am in an OBP league with 2B3B as an extra category and have the #3 pick. I am choosing between Braun and Cabrera. Is Cabrera's eye injury enough to move Braun ahead of him in the draft? I am worried that the eye injury could be just the start of things for Cabrera as he is playing out of position. Thanks, Brian

Jason Collette: I'm still fine with taking Cabrera.

Andrew Stoeten (drunkjaysfans.com): Career All Star Appearances for Brett Lawrie, 2.5, Over or Under?

Jason Collette: It will have to be as a reserve as long as Longoria is in the league and/or Yankee/Sox fans are stuffing the ballots. I love Lawrie, but he has so much helium in his ADP/Auction $$ right now I'm staying away. Put me at the over

Steven (Chicago): If you were in charge of MLB, would you allow your videos on youtube?

Jason Collette: No, but I'd put the embed code on every one of them that are hosted on mlb.com. I want the traffic for my videos.

It is also impossible to monitor this, but I'd allot every user 60 seconds of video a month to put on youtube. They could put it all in one video, or six separate shots. In the end, it is valuable intellectual property and they should be a stingy as they want with it. Adding the embed coding in recent months was a huge step in the right direction. Getting rid of the archaic blackout policy for mlb.tv and Extra Innings package is the next big concern

Matty (Iraq): Did you buy The New iPad?

Jason Collette: Nope. What spare cash I have these days goes into my gas tank or into my kids. I'm happy with my legacy iPad and iPhone

DandaMan (SeaCliff): Jason- any chance you guys put out a combined OF rankings and a combined SP rankings? Mentioned this in one of Derek's posts, but didn't hear anything. Draft this weekend. Much appreciated, Dan

Jason Collette: At this time of day, it wouldn't be ready for your draft as we don't publish content over the weekend.

Sam (Pittsburgh): For my birthday, my wife has given me a choice of either a 20 game ticket package for the Pirates or a 16GB New iPad with the MLB.TV package. Which one should I pick?

Jason Collette: Why should anyone be forced to watch the Pirates play 20 times this season? Only kidding....sorta. New iPad with mlb.tv service is the way to go. It is e-crack; once you get your first hit of it you'll never want to give it up.

Marissa (Calgary): Is there any hope left for Travis Snider?

Jason Collette: He loves the month of March. I'm not ready to give up on him but he's looking more like a platoon outfielder than an everyday middle of the lineup guy as we thought he would be a few years ago.

Lake (New York): I have a serious question, is MLB (Execs, Managers, Players, Clubhouse) ready for a Gay Player?

Jason Collette: They've had them for years, they just haven't known who the players were. When you look at the percentages, there has to be gay players in clubhouses. When you look at the trends in polls in terms of acceptance of gay rights and gay marriage trending upward, one would think the same would happen in the clubhouse. In the end, I would say it depends on the clubhouse.

Brian (Tinley Park): Jason - I heard you mention some changes that BJ Upton made late last season on a Baseball HQ podcast. Do you think that he will carry those changes through to this year and have a pretty good year? Thanks

Jason Collette: He has tinkered with his swing before and then reverted back to comfortable habits. That said, I don't recall him having the kind of success he did last season over the final five weeks and with him heading into a contract year, he may be more open-minded to sticking with something that worked for him to close out the season.

Donald (Oak Park): In a dynasty league a guy has been asking me a lot about Banuelos. The only player he has that I am interested in is Gerrit Cole. Obviously a heads up trade is out of the question. How much more would you want (as a Cole owner) in addition to ManBan (use players as an example)?

Jason Collette: I think Cole has more upside but is also riskier due to the neck up issues. I really like Banuelos myself and his ability to change speeds. I'd rather have him than Cole right now.

Alex (Toronto): Can I expect 30 saves out of Santos this season?

Jason Collette: Sure..Roberto Hernandez saved 30 games in 3+ seasons for awful Devil Ray teams in the AL East so why can't Santos? Great trade by AA to get him.

davelamb (cubicle farm): Jason --- Could I pass along a PFM request/question? Will the "expert rankngs" for OF & SPs be added anytime soon now that the NL/AL SP & OF articles have been published? Thanks

Jason Collette: I do believe so, yes. I will check with Derek this weekend as we're both here in NYC

Chris (Towson, MD): Minor, Niese, or Bard

Jason Collette: If Bard was going in the rotation, him all day long. It appears he is not so give me Niese

Silv (NY, NY): Either of uberprospects Nolan Arenado or Brett Jackson likely to have substantive value this season? I've stashed both in NL only as long term plays, but am hoping they'll get their licks in for 2012, as well.

Jason Collette: Jackson should have an earlier opportunity and I love the pop/speed combo. Substantive value may be a bit much to ask though

Jason Collette: I need to call it a day and work on a project before the Tout Wars party tonight at Foley's. Good luck this weekend!


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