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Chat: Derek Carty

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday August 11, 2011 1:00 PM ET chat session with Derek Carty.

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Chat out your fantasy problems with Derek Carty!

Derek Carty: Hey everyone. Sorry I'm starting late here. I'll be sure to stick around until I answer everyone's questions. Let's get started!

Jesus M (Triple A Hell): I'm getting ready to pack my bags for New York, but will I really get enough AB's to be a worthy starter?

Derek Carty: The BP Depth Charts, which I have a heavy hand in, have Montero down for 108 PA the rest of the season - roughly 55% playing time. I could see that jumping up another 10 or 15% once he actually gets the call, so it really depends on the league. In a 12-team mixed, it seems unlikely that Montero will be a real asset. In an AL-only, he needs to be grabbed now if he's still available.

Dan (Gotham): Derek- love the idea of the trading cards, but have a question- most of the time I do a trade there a multiple players involved. How does your system account for this? or does it only take into account the trades that were 1 player straight up for another?

Derek Carty: For those unsure what this question is referring to, check out BP Fantasy's newest column, The BP Trading Post, which debuted today: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14769

Mulit-player trades are incorporated into the Rest of Season (and Year-to-Date) Player Value and Return Value fields.

Let's say we have Player A ($20) and Player B ($2) traded for Player C ($10) and Player D ($5). We add up the return value = $10+$5 = $15. We subtract the extra players on the other side to isolate the player in question (Player A, in this case) = $15-$2 = $13. So in the example, Player A's trade value is $13, or a loss of $7.

DanDaMan (The Vineyard): Derek, gotta admit I was worried when Marc left, but you've continued to make fantasy coverage a bright spot for the site. Wondering about which call-ups over the next few weeks you think will have the biggest fantasy impact. Specifically, players like Montero who haven't been called up yet and may still be available. Thanks.

Derek Carty: Thanks, Dan. I really appreciate the kind words.

We've seen most of the big names called up over the past couple weeks with guys like Goldschmidt, Lawrie, Trayon Robinson, and others getting the call. A few others still left in the minors that could prove valuable are Montero, Leonys Martin, Brett Jackson (if he continues hitting), Brad Peacock, Devin Mesoraco (if someone gets injured in Cincy), and maybe Matt Moore, especially with Alex Cobb done for the year.

Andrew (Las Vegas): Your early top 5 for next season?

Derek Carty: Wow, it's very early, but based off feel (and in no particular order), I'd probably go with Bautista, Pujols, Kemp, Braun, and Granderson (maybe a little overzealous with Grandy top 5, but I really like him). There are others you could make a case for (A-Gon, Fielder, Upton, Cabrera), but that's what I'd go with now in a totally non-scientific, off-the-cuff kind of way.

DanDaMan (Vineyard): It's slim pickin's at shortstop in my league. Just picked up Betancourt who has been hot. Is he a better play than Jed Lowrie over the remainder of the season? I know Marc N. was high on Lowrie, but he didn't play all that well for me earlier in the season and I worry about him not getting enough playing time.

Derek Carty: I'm probably not as high as Marc on Lowrie; never being a huge fan. He's good, but he'll split PT, at least partially, with Scutaro, and I'd probably go with Betancourt, as unspectacular as he is. If nothing else, he's a safer play.

NoahBraun (SD): Bigger fantasy impact next year, james darnell or alex liddi?

Derek Carty: I'd take Liddi. Neither have incredibly high ceilings, but for next season, Liddi might be a bit more ready and 3B will be there for the taking in Seattle if the M's are ok with his defense and don't look externally.

Andrew (Las Vegas): Who are some current non-closers whom you could see closing at the beginning of next season?

Derek Carty: This is a planned article topic for the near future, but I haven't taken a super close look yet. Guys that come to mind include Bobby Parnell, Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, Kenley Jansen, and Aaron Crow.

faztradamus (Chicago): How valuable will Trevor Bauer be in a dynasty keeper league; more or less than Arodys Vizcaino?

Derek Carty: That's a very difficult question. There's a lot to like about Bauer and there's a good ceiling there, but he's very far away so projectability is all he has for the moment. Vizcaino also the potential to be special and is closer to the majors now, so I'd probably take him, all else equal.

keepers (cleveland): for 2 years, i can keep 2 of the following - ackley and jennings for $1, strasburg for $4. i am trying to flip one or two of those guys for significant upgrades this year. i still have kipnis at $1, hamels at $21 that i would consider as well. I guess the question is, who would you try harder to keep: ackley or jennings? 6x6, with OPS as the last cat (and BB for pitchers) thanks!

Derek Carty: I think I'd try harder to keep Jennings. Kipnis maybe even be a better bet than Ackley, for next season at least. Don't get me wrong, I like Ackley, but I think you could get something decent for him and keep Jennings and Strasburg.

T-Boz (Factory Hollow): Do you have a rule of thumb for how you value prospects relative to established major leaguers in keeper leagues? Come up with a ceiling projection and then decide what percent chance there is the guy reaches it?

Derek Carty: There's no real rule of thumb that I use. It all depends on the keeper league setup. It's very difficult to say without knowing how the keeper system works since there's so many variations on contracts, number of keepers, years they can be kept, etc. In general, though, ceiling is more important for prospects than average expectation in a keeper league than it would be in a redraft league, especially if you have a bench or minor league system that you can stash them in until they become usable.

Derek Carty: That's going to wrap it up for today, guys. Be sure to check out BP Fantasy's newest column, The BP Trading Post, debuting today. And if you have any additional questions, you can always e-mail me or catch me on Facebook or Twitter (@DerekCarty). Thanks!


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