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Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday July 06, 2017 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

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Jeff is the senior prospect writer at Baseball Prospectus, and co-host of the BP Mets podcast For All You Kids. He also just released the mid-season top 50 prospect list.

Jeffrey Paternostro: A Lisztomania Think less but see it grow Like a riot like a riot oh Not easily offended Know how to let it go From the mess to the masses

UZ82 (Nowhere, USA): I've seen, at least in fantasy midseason lists, Vlad Jr ranked in the top 10, sometimes top 5. I get it, walking more than striking out is insanely good at his age and level. But damn, really?!

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's probably even a bit more valuable as a fantasy prospect than a real prospect, because the offensive upside is so high. I said we might end up a year late preseason. We ended up six months late.

Nose Pincher (Florida): Got a favorite out of this mish mash of low level prospects? Monte Harrison, Khalil Lee, Yanio Perez, Brandon Marsh, A.Gimenez, Nolan Jones, Jake Gatewood

Jeffrey Paternostro: If this is a fantasy question, I'd go after Harrison's offensive upside, and he's actually one of the closer guys there to major league horizon. For prospect list purposes I think Gimenez was probably closest to making the 50, although he wasn't all that close.

Hank (Raleigh): Any consideration for Dom Smith?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was considered. Stock is a bit up from preseason, though not hugely so. Also not in the next 10-15 guys we "agonized over" but likely a 101 guy if he doesn't end up at first for half a year after a Duda deal.

Dan (SD): What position does Fernando Tatis Jr end up?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I've literally heard like five different potential landing spots for him. I think second base is the best long term fit for now, but things can change fast for teenaged bodies.

Dan (PITT): Anything of note with Chris Flexen?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So I saw him last week, and he'll be written up for BP Mets next week now that I am out of Midseason List hibernation. He's noteworthy now. Fastball up to 95 with plane. Commands it to both sides. Slider is potentially plus, curve isn't bad either. Change...well there was one good one. There's gonna be durability and health questions given his injury hitsory, but he's still younger than you think and pitching well in Double-A. Certainly a Mets Top 10 guy, and I might take him over Dunn if you asked me today.

Porter (Chicago): As I look at all the Kopech love around me, I ask myself "Did we not learn anything from Tyler Glasnow?"

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's not a great comp in so much as it's very different body types, but I do think there is reason to be cautious with #thegreatstuff guys that are just a control/command jump away from putting it all together.

Buff (CO): Could you mention 2-3 NL hitters who just missed?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Closest NL bats were probably Moniak and Kieboom.

Good Lord (Just Inside the Pearly Gates): My boy Jesus Sanchez has been quite good this year and I figured he'd sneak on the back end here. Was he close? Great list either way, you'll be rewarded in the afterlife.

Jeffrey Paternostro: 101 guy, not 50 for us. This will be a familiar refrain.

Eric (San Diego): Fernando Tatis Jr - a top 10 prospect next year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We got feedback that he was now.

Jimmy (Delaware ): Riley Pint over Forrest Whitley?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We spent a decent chunk of last night arguing about that last tier of pitchers. Because while at that point the order doesn't reeeeeeally matter, this is the kind of shit we care about too much. Ultimately more ceiling for Pint and a bigger fastball, but we like both a lot.

mymorningjacket (philly): did jesus sanchez or taylor trammel receive consideration for the top 50? are either/both of them top 100 prospects?

Jeffrey Paternostro: They did, and probably. I'm literally starting this again in two months. So I have a bit of time to suss it out at least.

Brian (CT): How close was Estevan Florial to the top 50?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So part of the problem of with doing a midseason list is the timing of looks. We haven't seen Charleston yet, but are getting several team looks in the next month. The reports are really good, and I had one that was reeeeeeeeeally good, but I'm exercising a little caution until we get eyes on him. His name did come up though, as did like 12 different Yankees.

Jason (Jacksonville): Thanks for chatting, Jeff. Lots of talk about Sixto, but how far off was org mate Kilome?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was another guy that was in amongst that last tier of pitching prospects on various iterations of the list. Command is a little wobblier and stuff isn't that much better than Medina, who I think was closer to making it in the end.

Fred (Fargo): Thanks for chatting! Did Quantrill get into the discussion near the back of this list? I know in your process you don't consider other publications, but the BA guys have been waxing poetic about him. Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: He did. Wilson has our most recent look and while he liked him a lot, didn't think he was QUITE a Top 50 guy. So he ended up just off. There wasn't much push back from inside the game on it either FWIW.

ChazzHands (Cleveland): Were you guys surprised at how high Mejia ended up on the list?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So Jarrett alluded to someone making an impassioned case for him at 1. That was me, so no I am not surprised.

Ethan (Milwaukee): Thanks for chatting, Jeff! I know he's not eligible for these sorts of exercises any more, but Raul Mondesi has been very impressive (at least statistically) in a (finally) age appropriate assignment in AAA this season. I know BP was always very aggressive in ranking him in the past. If eligible, could you see him in the top 25 or so names?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I have never been much of a Mondesi guy personally. That said, his development path has been so aggressive it's hard to know exactly how/if he will progress from here. He's a 21 year old sure shot shorstop mashing in the PCL. Granted it's the only place he's ever mashed, but it would be hard not to rank him somewhere if that's all you knew. It's not all we know though. So I guess this is a long-winded way off saying I am glad I don't have to deal with his being eligible.

Willson (Oakland): Thanks for chatting, Jeff. My boy Franklin Barreto got the call recently, but had he not been in the majors, where could you have seen him ranked? I'm guessing before getting called up he was on some iteration of this list. Thoughts on what you've seen from him in the majors so far?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was around 30 as I recall. I will confess to not catching a ton of actual major league baseball the last couple weeks, so I don't have much more than what the stat line would tell you, overmatched at times, flashes of that talent at others. I'd be inclined to give him the rest of the year to make adjustments. But I won't be shocked if we end up having to rank him in the offseason either.

Eric (NJ): What type of prospects could you see the Mets getting back from the Yankees if they traded them either of Reed, Blevins or Duda? What could they get if they packaged 2 of them in 1 deal?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I heard that a Duda for Wade proposal made both Yankees and Mets fans mad online, so that probably means it's fair. The problem is there is no real precedent for a Mets/Yankees deal, so I don't know who wants to extract what premium if at all.

Danny (Philly): So safe to say Medina and Kilome would both be on the top 100 list? If so it seems (except backwards and worries about Crawford) Phillies system is taking a big step foreword this year, no?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably safe to say. We liked them a lot last year, but the teams in front of them will see a few major graduations, so I could see them higher this year for sure. Off the top of my head they have something like 10 Top 101 candidates.

Andrew (DC): Carter Kieboom was in consideration for a top-50 slot? What's changed with him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was. Basically he got hurt. So the track record is just shorter. He was also on various iterations of the list, and would be in the next 10-15. I know these become boring answers but it's what happened.

Hiura Fan (Milwaukee): So, I guess Keston Hiura is going to be developed as a 2B? Love how he's hit the ground running too.

Jeffrey Paternostro: You'd certainly want to try. He's my personal favorite dude from this draft class, but it is a wonky profile that's difficult to rank in a 101 context.

Connor (Boston): It seems like you guys have no problem FIRING guys up these lists (Sixto and Vlad both shot up 80+ spots) but are more reluctant to drop guys. Crawford (long underwhelming hitting, no power, no SB prowess) and Alvarez (absolutely horrendous reports from scouts this season) come to mind.

Jeffrey Paternostro: This isn't unfair I think. Sixto did have a real stuff jump, and Vladito was just a bad miss on my part. I'll also be the last one to give up on Crawford because of what I have seen in the past. This is less likely to be the case on an offseason list, but I am disinclined to weight three months of bad reports/performance too too much against a longer track record. I do think that the Crawford drop was fairly significant in the context of the top of a list which tends to be more stratified.

jdsuss (Queens): Jeff -- I'm so happy for you & glad BP has you to leading the way. Obviously your team's list has an emphasis on upside. From a Mets perspective, who in the system has you excited and fits the profile of your list -- young, toolsy with high upside -- but wouldn't necessarily be the next Mets' prospect on this list?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hi JD! It's probably still Desmond Lindsay who hasn't hit and still can't stay healthy, but every time I see him it just looks right. I will say it is a player profile the Mets don't really have a ton of right now.

Peter (Gville): Alfaro's value seems almost entirely tied up in defense. I know he has 70-grade raw power, but it hasn't showed up in games and it looks like he's going to have a severe time adjusting to MLB pitching and be a big liability. Is a catcher with his cannon of an arm worth ranking that high if he hits .240/.310/.440?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So that line is roughly league average offensive production I think? As a good defender behind the plate? If you could guarantee me that performance, we have him low. There just aren't many good catchers right now. That's Travis d'Arnaud with an elite arm basically. And of course there is the added sweetener of the chance it just clicks at the plate one day.

The downside risk here is significant though, for sure.

Hasselhoff (The Beach): I'm drafting for a midseason minor league draft and I've read the midseason top 50 but I wondered who of these available players have the highest future fantasy value: Bichette, Sixto, Kyle Wright, Wander Franco, Kingery and MacKenzie Gore. Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: For fantasy purposes I'd go with Bichette pretty comfortably. Too much risk in the arms. Kingery is the "safer" bat but not so much it would pull me off Bichette's upside.

Ryan (Montreal): Do you have a 'Just Missed' list for the updated top 50? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: This will be a supplement or an upcoming ten pack of some sort.

Mike (Sandy Springs): Can you explain Albies at 40? Dominating AAA right now and is the youngest player in the league. Still has not faced a pitcher younger than him and the power is emerging. 5HR's in the last few weeks, steals bases, good in the field and had hit everywhere he's gone and he's only 20 years old!

Jeffrey Paternostro: So this is one of those things where he's just never done it for me. It's not a very physical profile, it's incredibly hit tool driven, and he doesn't have, say, Verdugo's bat control. I think he's a better fit at second base too. I know I am out of step with the prospect-ranking industrial complex on this one, and I might take an 'L' here, but it's 'just' an average regular for me. I did get some significant push back on this one actually, but I stuck with it. If I'm wrong, it will be pretty obvious why. You listed all the reasons.

John (Phoenix): Asking about a couple of guys who just mash with the bat in Willie Calhoun and Rhys Hoskins. Obviously the defensive profile makes them difficult to run too far up the list, but the bats seem very potent. Would we have seen them had we extended this list a bit further?

Jeffrey Paternostro: More than a bit further to get to those two, but we'd get there before I ran out of spots I think.

Steve (Philly): Daniel Brito - Top 101 but not Top 50?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Correct

John (MD): Would Juan Soto have ranked any higher if he wasn't hurt for the last 6 weeks?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Maaaaaaybe. I probably should have ranked him lower for the same reason we dropped Kieboom, but sometimes your guys are your guys.

Andrew (DC): How close was Erick Fedde to the top 50?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So some of this is on the Nats because if they'd just kept him a starter the whole season he probably would have made it? Like you can basically plug in the Chance Adams blurb for him and it applies equally well.

Benjamin (Chicago): Was Luis Robert eligible for this list? If not where would he rank?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was, technically, and there is a note about him at the bottom.

SansRig (Work): Is Austin Hays looking like a top 101 guy? I’m guessing he will be on the fringes of that, but I wonder if he was mentioned while drafting this list.

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was far enough off the 50 to not get a ton of consideration (although we like him internally), but fringe 101 guy seems fair.

Bobba Fett (Death Star): In a 30 team dynasty league, would you trade Eloy Jimenez, Bo Bichette, and Juan Soto for Yoan Moncada?

Jeffrey Paternostro: No, I would want multiple shots at the All-star level outcome given the volatility of prospects.

Ryan (Montreal): Is Alcantara being on the list more about his arsenal improving? His numbers have been uninspiring so far this year. Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Basically yes. Springfield is a brutal place to pitch too. He is risky to be sure.

AJ (Nantucket): Uh, who has been calling Juan Soto "the Dominican Bryce Harper"?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I can't reveal the source for that one, but it was somewhat tongue-in-cheek

Ryan (Montreal): Were there many guys that did not make the preseason top 100 that were under consideration for this top 50? If so, who? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, a few of them even made it. Some other notable ones that were considered were Kieboom, Josh Lowe, Jesus Sanchez, Conner Greene.

Jason (Jacksonville): Derek Fisher has mashed all season. Is the defensive profile still that much of a question mark that the other tools don't get him on the list? I've been very encouraged by his improvement in K rate.

Jeffrey Paternostro: So Fisher got screwed a little by being in the majors and off our radar for a large portion of the list discussion. But if you want to quibble with the profile, he's a corner outfielder that projects more as solid regular than star.

Dustin (Houston): Where would you have had Martes had he been eligible? About ballpark where did you have Derek Fisher, Franklin Perez, and Yordan Alvarez? Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh geez, probably a little lower than preseason. The struggles have been exactly what you would worry the struggles would be. Glad I didn't have to pick a spot for him. Fisher and Perez would in the next 10-15, Alvarez wasn't really in consideration.

andwoo (DC): Any Mets prospects beyond the recently drafted or recent large $ J2 signings to pay attention to in the SS leagues? Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: Brooklyn is pretty barren this year. Kingsport has Christian James, Juan Uriarte, and Edgardo Fermin (theoretically Cameron Planck as well). GCL has Daison Acosta, Jaison Vilera, Gregory Guerrero and Mark Vientos.

a.j. (las vegas): Yankees prospects are dropping like flies (torres, kaprelian, fowler, sheffield). do you think that lessens the chance they trade for help this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: They still have plenty of pieces to make a deal if so inclined. Especially given their likely targets. Someone like Yu Darvish is probably out of play now though.

Bwe206 (Myspace.com): Over under 1.5 guys from today's list being traded in the next month?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We had a long discussion at the Camden Yards event about the highest prospect likely to get dealt. I think we came up with Triston McKenzie. Alex Verdugo might be the better answer, although the Dodgers sound inclined to hold onto him. I guess never bet against Dombrowksi going nuts, but I'm gonna take the under.

Venaseph (Pennsylvania): So how long till the Bartyolo announcement?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Guys usually clear officially at 4 PM I think?

bwe206 (Chicago): Would you be able to roughly put the list into tiers (e.g. 1-10 are 60 FV, 11-30 55, etc)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure, we discussed this internally and it was like 1-9, 10-18, 19-30, 31-50 (and really out to 65 or so). 1-9 are the guys we think our stars, 10-18 are the guys we think are stars but riskier, though Senzel is kind of his own thing in that tier. 19-30 are the guys we like better than everyone else basically, it's a bit of a mishmash of dudes.

Eric (Norwalk, CT): How many Braves came up in conversation? And do you still consider them #1 overall farm in the sport?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Past the ones on the list, I think Pache, Wentz, and Gohara were all talked about. I think they are down enough (and graduated Swanson of course) that the Pads, Brewers, and Phillies are in the conversation as well now.

Mike (OH): I know these lists are the consensus of several minds, but where do YOU personally stand with Austin Meadows these days? Curious as to your thoughts.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think the consensus and me personally both landed on "I really don't know." Have a supplemental piece about the guys I just don't know about (Meadows, Crawford, Pint, Giolito, Reyes) coming soon.

greg (ny): i know you were planning on writing a piece in andres gimenez - can you just basically give over the short version of what your thoughts were on him and what you think his potential is?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I did! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31954

Jeff (Bay Area): Is Anderson Espinoza's exclusion purely injury related?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yes. Although for a guy who was already gonna have durability questions, it becomes a further complicating factor in the profile. I talked about this on Flags Fly Forever last night, but this is also the risk with Sixto.

jgaztambide (DC): Is Bobby Bradley doing enough to crack the 101? 21 in AA, reducing his K-rate significantly while maintaining a good BB rate and a .240+ ISO. I know 1B are tough to get excited about, but does Bradley warrant excitement?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Bobby Bradley is super fun, and showed about as good as Bobby Bradley can show for the weekend I caught him (lord there were dingers). That said, even that look still included some serious issues with spin.

Mark (TN): If someone said Kyle Wright was going to be a top 30-40 prospect on the offseason list, would you argue that much?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Without drilling down into the player, that is roughly the range where dudes with that amateur pedigree/bonus go so probably not. I do tend to be a little bit more cautious with draftees than my colleagues generally.

Jim (CT): Braves down as a farm system?

Jeffrey Paternostro: They graduated the second best prospect in baseball, and Newcomb is probably following close behind. These things happen. Still one of the better ones in baseball.

someguynamedkenn (NJ): Is Jose Miguel Medina a guy, dude or non-prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Is that the OF or the Pitcher? I have trouble keeping them straight. I'm not a huge fan of either but the pitcher was 85-87 last year in Kingsport so...

Tbdubbs (Upstate NY): Thanks to you and the BP staff for the list and for taking our questions. For the "second tier prospect MI's": do you/staff see Tatis ranking over Adames and Albies as a higher ceiling guy versus higher floor guys or something else?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's the ceiling.

Splat (Hartford): Jay Groome: can a great 10-start run to close the season push him into top 20 by next spring? Seems like he probably just needs to prove he's fully healthy. Thanks, I love lists!

Jeffrey Paternostro: I struggled with what to do with Groome. It's similar to the Manning issue, where it looks right, but we are publishing two weeks into it looking right. But yeah, maybe not QUITE Top 20, but significantly higher than his midseason ranking.

Charlie (LA): Was it hard to rank Buehler when the Dodgers aren't letting him go more than 75 pitches in a start? I'd think it'd present challenges when a 22 year old prospect is being handled that carefully.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Jarrett talks about this in his supplemental piece today, but this isn't just a Walker Buehler problem, all these guys get handled pretty carefully now. Other than Mike Soroka apparently. It makes things trickier for sure.

Wells (Queens): Newcomb showed the same pros and cons he always has in the minors this year but got promoted before this came out. In the discussion if he hadn't been called up? He's looked pretty filthy in (most of) his starts in Atlanta.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I love me some Sean Newcomb, he'd have been in the mix.

Ben (MA): A few weeks ago, I traded Jason Groome for Kyle Wright, thinking both have high upsides but that Wright could get there a lot sooner. How do you think I did there?

Jeffrey Paternostro: May have sold a little early on Groome, but I think you did all right. I don't know if Wright's upside is quite there though.

Steve (Philly): Which prospect do you wish you could get eyes on? Geographically it's difficult to get a read on everyone, but is there someone in particular you would want to get a report for?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Luis Robert

Steve (San Diego): Did Luis Urias get any consideration for that hit tool?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was in discussions. Divisive dude within the team.

BravesOptions (RVA): Explain what you mean by this re: Ronald Acuna "Why He Might Fail: In five years he has a chance to be 24"

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's an old Casey Stengel quip about prospect development not always working out. A lighthearted reference to the general risk of teenagers with swing and miss, nothing more.

Steve (CRAIGSMELLSYLVANIA): Is there a pun that an editor made you remove that you wish you could have back in the article? Recent chat question makes me realize Bo Bichette isn't far from Boba Fett in terms of sound, but I'm only 80% of the way to a joke with it.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Craig knows better than to try and edit me.

Alex (CT): Are the Braves, Yankees and Padres still considered the top farm systems?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yankees have enough injuries and graduations they are probably down a little, swap them with the Phillies I think. This changes further once we get a better feel for draftees and short-season guys so don't hold me to any of it.

Bob (TX): I thought the recent report on Whitley was underwhelming so I am surprised to see him as a Top 50 prospect. Does that suggest that the middle of most top 100s are pretty mushy and filled with guys with some serious flaws?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Plus fastball, cutter, curve, starter's frame. You must be difficult to whelm. You are basically right though. Functionally those guys are more 50-60 once you factor in guys that are up but won't graduate, draft guys, maybe the odd short season breakout. At that point in the list, especially with pitchers, you run into these types of guys.

Tim (Illinois): What other prospects in the Pirates Org are worth getting excited about other than Keller and Meadows?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We like Cole Tucker. I think I am more neutral on Hayes, but he definitely has his fans here as well. The Newman reports I got this year have been...less exciting

AJ (Canada): Shed Long had a great first half with Daytona, performing at least as well as Senzel (though he' struggled so far at Pensacola) - did he get any consideration for the top 50?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Eric is the third door on the left.

(we like him a fair bit, especially Craig. I think his name came up once but was bucketed potential 101, but not 50)

Jim (Detroit): I can't imagine Thomas Szapucki was in the discussion for this list given his health concerns. Is he still on the 101? How does he compare to other non-listers like Dylan Cease, Franklin Perez, and Mitch White?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Szapucki is another Manning/Groome type guy, it's started to look better, the velo isn't quite all the way back though, and we have a back injury and a shoulder impingement in the last year. That's not great, Bob. Upside is comparable to those dudes still (behind Cease if you really like Cease which many of us do), but the risks here are extreme now. His 101 status is pretty contingent on the next two months I'd think.

greg (nyc): How good a prospect is Ryan McMahon?

Jeffrey Paternostro: McMahon looked much better this year in Hartford, using the whole field again, driving the other way with authority, still a pretty good third baseman. I didn't see him at second, but I was told the athleticism will play there enough that he's viable. Still struggles with spin, still struggles with lefties. He needs those to click, and I'm not entirely confident it will enough to make him a good regular. Useful major leaguer for sure though.

Fred (NY): How would you rank these guys purely on upside: Gimenez, Lindsay, Dunn, Flexen, Szapucki?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Szapucki, Lindsay, Gimenez, Dunn, Flexen

Kap (NY): So clearly not as good a player as Reyes, but Kaprielian in the same situation being out for the year with TJ. Is he a guy you'd be willing to hedge your bets on at the back end of a 101 as a high upside guy who could come back strong from surgery?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Significantly shorter track record of performance/stuff makes it difficult. But he's still top 150 so he's at least in play for 101

Aaron (NY): Where would you have slotted Clint Frazier? Also, it seems like O'Neill is adjusting to AAA after a slow start. What are your current thoughts on him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I forget exactly where Frazier was pre-promotion, somewhere amongst Acuna, Soto, Tucker, Senzel in the teens. O'Neill is another guy who "failed" in exactly the way you would worry it would go bad, which makes dealing with him trickier.

Justin (Iowa): What is Mitch Keller's upside? Cole/Taillon territory?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Not quite that high, but #2 starter is in play.

Matt (KY): Do guys like Ryan Mountcastle and Bo Bichette figure to move to 2B before having to venture to the OF? Not being able to handle SS is one thing, but surely they can handle the keystone... am I wrong?

Jeffrey Paternostro: You aren't, but some of this comes down to organization need, some of it to how their bodies develop and where the toolset fits best. There is of course a big gap in the offensive bar between second base and left field, so you ideally want to put the "not sticking as shortstop guys" as far left on the defensive spectrum as you can.

heterodude (PHI): DJ Peters is up to 18 HR and got a decent 55/50 OFV outlook in his Eyewitness account back when he was graded with 60 power. If he can get that power up, as his HR numbers are indicating, would he be a back half of the 101 candidate?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The key here is less amping the game power in the Cal, and more if he continues to get it into games at higher levels given his size and long levers in the swing. Wilson's grades were in line with what we gave Renfroe though, and he snuck on this year. That also elucidates some other risks in the profile.

Matt (KY): Orlando Arcia obviously isn't eligible, but how similar are he and JP Crawford at this point? I seem to see a lot of the same remarks made about the two guys over the last 2-3 years.

Jeffrey Paternostro: If you told me the range of JPC outcomes was somewhere between 2016 Arcia and 2017 Arcia (with different shape to the offense I'd imagine) I'd be amenable.

Steve (NJ): Who would you estimate as your 300th best prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So a backend top ten guy for someone, probably a 5/4 type grade. That's a huge mush, so I'd want a guy with some upside and up the middle tools...maybe Yeison Yrizzari.

Efrim (CT): Uh, good point about Soroka. What's their deal in handling him? Huge innings jumps and high pitch counts. Is the guy just a horse?

Jeffrey Paternostro: They sure seem to think so. And he sure seems to be managing the load. These things change quickly though.

Alex (CT): Max Fried and Luiz Gohara? Any consideration for either in the Top 50 - would they be in Top 101?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Gohara more than Fried.

Greg (ATL): Next Braves prospect outside the top 50?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably either Maitan or Pache

Kyle (Los Angeles): Any Yankee names receive considering that might surprise us?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think so. Wade would have been in consideration if he was eligible. Fowler was talked about. I mentioned Florial earlier.

Dan (Brooklyn): Given his lofty ranking, is it fair to say that you're more confident in Buehler remaining a SP long-term?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Or we think everyone around him also has some reliever risk. We are making a bet on the stuff more than the body.

Lucroy Fan (Milwaukee): Considering the Lucroy almost trade for Meija, would you take Meija or Brinson + Ortiz right now? Is Ortiz another top 101, but not top 50 guy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd want Mejia, but the Rangers package looked closer at the time, and is still a fine consolation prize. Ortiz got talked about but we ended up with 101, not top 50, yeah.

bwe206 (Brooklyn): Any reason why the Mets haven't signed Peterson? Is this to help manage his innings?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably. Or he just wanted a break. They've already announced an "innings plan" and signed everyone else they had a realistic shot at. I would suspect they already have a deal worked out and he's just getting a few weeks off.

Andrew (DC): How do you evaluate a guy with character concerns in pro ball like Seth Romero? If a year goes by and he stays clean, does it revise your estimate of him up?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I get a little weird about "evaluating" makeup. College kids are assholes. God knows I was. But yeah, there is no shortage of guys with bad makeup tags as amateurs that became model citizens, at least by baseball standards. Obviously sometimes it goes the other way too. Our good friend Michael Baumann also made the point that coaches and college guys often use the same "bad makeup" language for "likes to smoke pot" as "has bodies in an ice cooler in his garage."

buckb2 (Huntsville): Did Tyler Mahle get any consideration? Looked like the best SP in the Southern League this year, and it didn't seem to be just smoke and mirrors - good K rate, low walks, kept throwing one great game after another.

Jeffrey Paternostro: He did. He's another guy that gets unfairly dinged because our Southern League coverage is a bit patchy this year, and we haven't gotten a team member on him before the list got locked. Like with Florial, have some coming up.

Jeffrey Paternostro: All right, gotta run and do some radio, but thanks for chatting and thanks for reading. We have exactly two months until I have to start on the 101 and Team top tens. The lists go on forever and the party never ends.


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