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Chat: Jarrett Seidler

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday June 27, 2017 8:00 PM ET chat session with Jarrett Seidler.

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Jarrett is a member of the prospect team, writer at BP Mets and co-host of the BP Mets podcast For All You Kids. Also, he knows who the #1 prospect in baseball will be in 2021.

Jarrett Seidler: Howdy all, here to talk prospects, MLB, and whatever else! (I am not a fantasy expert.)

Mike (NY): So is the 2021 Top Prospect Amed Rosario?

Jarrett Seidler: Ha! There sure are a lot of Amed Rosario questions in the queue here. Obviously he's not up and obviously it's increasingly weird that he's not up with the Mets making quite a big deal of moving Asdrubal Cabrera to second. I can't imagine this situation doesn't resolve by next April, but...

AI (BK): Is Dustin Fowler a fair return for Addison Reed or is that unrealistic? Shouldn't he net a similar return as Melancon? Could you see the Mets packaging Reed/Duda in a deal with NYY?

Jarrett Seidler: We've got multiple Dustin Fowler to the Mets questions even. The Melancon trade is kind of a weird one because they traded him for another MLB reliever, but Dustin Fowler is the type of fringe top 100 prospect I expect Reed to go for. And Duda makes sense too, of course.

At the same time, when was the last time the Mets and Yankees made a substantial trade? Armando Benitez?

Ceej (Pittsburgh): For keeper leagues, how do we view the injured Gleyber and Urias for next year and beyond?

Jarrett Seidler: Gleyber probably loses a few months in the majors and there's a slight developmental risk since it's a bit of an unprecedented injury, but his stock is still overall up on the season.

Urias...the history of pitchers with that injury is not good. I just don't have an answer here.

Lester (St Lucie): Is Andres Gimenez a better prospect now than he was before this season? Or is a .272/.335/.354 line about what you would've expected from him after his monster summer in 2016?

Jarrett Seidler: Yeah, I think his stock is up. Anytime an 18-year-old jumps from a foreign complex league and posts a league-average line in full-season ball, that's a big win. And we have greater verification on what the tools and package looks like.

Yuri (Florida): Gun to your head: who does Otani sign with and when does he sign?

Jarrett Seidler: The Dodgers nearly signed him as an amateur and are an obvious fit on a number of levels (financial, analytical) unless he wants specifically to sign with an AL team to play both ways. He certainly claims he's coming over this year, and weirdly gains a ton of leverage on things like that if he signs this year with the new CBA restrictions. I don't know how MLB stops a team from making a handshake agreement to sign him to a monster extension a year or two in, either.

kjesanis (New Hampshire): Where does Hunter Greene slot on your mid season 50?

Jarrett Seidler: We don't rank new draftees on the midseason list. We've typically ranked similar prospects in the teens or 20s after the season.

Dan (PITT): Can Chris Flexen be a rotation piece by this time next year? Feel like he is under-discussed a bit and has flown under the radar, especially in a system that does well with pitchers of his type

Jarrett Seidler: I agree, and I've hyped him up a little along the way, but he keeps getting hurt. Stuff did jump this year in his cameo, though.

Sam (NJ): Would you say that Dom Smith has improved his prospect status since the 2017 began, or is it largely the same?

Jarrett Seidler: He's hitting nearly exactly what we expected him to given that run environment, and I haven't heard nor seen any significant profile changes. It's up a little just because of the natural order of things -- if your performance is static and acceptable as you move up and stay healthy, your stock is always ticking up a little...

BC (Urbandale): Schwarber struck out 3 times last night in Des Moines. looks absolutely lost at the plate. can you compare this to another guy in recent past who was hot, then struggled like this but bounced back?

Jarrett Seidler: As with all Kyle Schwarber questions, the answer is always Michael Conforto, somehow.

Mark (Wisconsin ): Travis Demerite got a lot of hype last year, is he still a decent prospet?

Jarrett Seidler: I was never on that hype train so much, and I think a lot of his "ups and downs" are more run environment and quality of opposing pitching. He's still a decent prospect though, sure.

Dusty (Colorado): How do you compare Andres Gimenez to Wander Javier?

Jarrett Seidler: Well, Gimenez has done it at a much higher level now. Javier is way more toolsed up, Gimenez is way more polished?

LucasDad (MPLS): I am I going to get any value out of Bird or Dahl this season? Spent a pretty penny on them in my auction draft this year, and can keep 12...would like to have a big enough sample this year to make a decision about them for next year. Have not even seen any recent news on Dahl lately.

Jarrett Seidler: Well, you're in luck: Dahl just got moved to the 60-day DL with no timetable for his return. I have no idea if he's back this season, sorry, and Bird may not be looking at a clean path to playing time given the Yankees' contention.

Jack (Philly): After seeing Sixto, is he as good as advertised? Potential number 2?

Jarrett Seidler: Yes, and number 2 might be low. He's that special in terms of stuff -- but also very, very far from the majors, with unproven durability and something of a slight frame.

ssimon (Pelham, N.Y.): Fair to say that deGrom and Gsellman, perhaps Harvey before the injury, were developed by the Mets into much more than they were expected to become?

Jarrett Seidler: deGrom was expected to be a fringy backend guy or reliever that turned into a top of the rotation guy and Harvey was supposed to be a mid-rotation guy that turned into a straight ace, so yeah, there's a lot of extra development there. Gsellman...jury's still out on that one, and now he's openly hurt instead of whatever's been going on recently...

Punchoutpappy (First in Flight): Clint Frazier... Not so good in the triple a SSS. What are your feels on him?

Jarrett Seidler: He's hitting .250/.340/.473 in the Triple-A league that's actually tough to hit in. That's pretty darned good! Although as always with Clint Frazier, it feels like the best is right around the corner and not here yet.

I am the local high man on Frazier. He's one of the best outfield prospects in the game and has enormous hitting upside.

Rob (Alaska): The prospect team was, I thought, appropriately bullish on Anderson Tejeda in the offseason rankings. Anybody have eyes on him this season? The numbers don't look great, but I'm trying to ignore #s at that level. Any insight?

Jarrett Seidler: Unfortunately Hickory's first trip through here was the same weekend as the Baltimore BP event, so I didn't get him then. I should in about a month. Stat line itself isn't good obviously, and scouts we've spoken to are a bit more bearish than coming into the season.

MJ (Waukanda): Time to sell David Price in dynasty formats?

Jarrett Seidler: It doesn't look good, but it's only six starts and it's still David Price. What are you getting back for him if you sell?

Bradley (Chicago\): Purely Fantasy - Carter Kieboom or Bo Bichette. Or is there a better up and coming SS?

Jarrett Seidler: Bichette, but neither is a particularly good bet to stay at short.

delatopia (the 415): Has Tomas Nido's prospect status been affected one way or the other after posting a solid if unspectacular year at Double-A?

Jarrett Seidler: It's about even. He'd probably be higher on a system ranking because it's been a bad year for the system overall.

Hector (Denver): Tyler Glasnow is not learning anything in Triple A. I think they need to bring him up and let him start and figure it out at the major league level instead of Chad Kuhl.

Jarrett Seidler: I don't mind giving him a few weeks to catch his breath -- he was really getting crushed and looking awful doing it. I might be more inclined to give him a month of middle-leverage relief work and see how that looks than to throw him back in the rotation, but when top prospects go that far south there aren't easy answers.

Linda (Trenton): I think it was Skyler who reported that Szapucki wasnt throwing his slider in the start that he saw and I suppose that could explain his somewhat rocky start to the season. Do you know whether he's throwing it again, especially coming on the heels of his dominating start Sunday?

Jarrett Seidler: It was his curve, and yes it's shown back up. He has apparently added something in the slider/cutter band as well.

kjesanis (New Hampshire): Anyone in SS, Rookie, or DSL standing out to you?

Jarrett Seidler: This is way too early to answer and I haven't even made it out to any Penn League games yet, but the reports on Matt Manning are kind of crazy.

Willy (Yonkers): Who are some of the guys in A-ball who are having or could have breakout years like the ones we've seen in the past (Acuna, Soto, Robles, etc)... Looking to stash a few of them on my roster.

Jarrett Seidler: Nobody quite as out of nowhere as those guys, but Bo Bichette and Sixto Sanchez have both jumped from off the 101 to top-tier guys

Ike (Pittsburgh): What are your thoughts on Shane Baz? Could he be a big time pitching prospect in the future?

Jarrett Seidler: I didn't do a ton of draft stuff this year (New Jersey didn't have Jay Groome and Luca Dalatri this year, for starters) but yeah, he's that kind of potential guy.

Cal Guy (Cal): Jarrett, Giants are looking like they might get the #2 pick in the 2018 draft. The last time they picked that high they came away with a college 1B, not the most historically popular demographic for such an early pick. That guy, Will Clark, turned out pretty well. What are your thoughts on Seth Beer as a potential #2 pick for SF?

Jarrett Seidler: BP alum and good friend Michael Baumann wrote an article over at the Ringer appropriately destructive of first base draft picks a few weeks ago: https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-draft-first-base-prospects-brendan-mckay-eric-hosmer-7c4345729889

Beer's in the early mix, but the college folks seemed to think his stock is down after his sophomore season. Between him and Kumar Rocker, it's a hell of a draft for names, though.

Cal Guy (Cal): Jarrett, So just who will be the #1 prospect in baseball be in 2021?

Jarrett Seidler: I guess I have to answer one of these, right?

Give me Adrian Morejon.

Ben (Maine): Thoughts on Mark Vientos' potential?

Jarrett Seidler: He's a Florida prep, so it's not like I've ever seen him or anything, but everyone I've talked to on him gives him huge upside. Opinions are varied on what kind of chance he's got to reach that upside.

John (Columbus): Top 3 SS prospects in 2019 will be?

Jarrett Seidler: Brendan Rodgers, Bo Bichette, and Fernando Tatis

Dan (DC): Next Big SS prospect will be?

Jarrett Seidler: It sure would be fun if it was Jeter Downs, wouldn't it?

a.j. (las vegas): a lot of payroll coming off the books this year. is there a particular free agent or position you would target?

Jarrett Seidler: Assuming this is a Mets question, the guy is Lorenzo Cain.

pmuehlenkamp (Cincinnati): Since the present is ugly and the gloried past can only be kicked around so many times, let's talk about the Reds' future... Including the 2017 Draftees, where does the Reds farm system rank among the 30 franchises? Is this rebuild progressing in the short term or are we looking at building around Hunter Greene in 4 years?

Jarrett Seidler: Hmmm. 17th coming into the season, basically swapping in Greene for Amir Garrett. A few guys stock up, a few down...probably somewhere in the 10-15 range?

This is the type of stuff that we honestly need to go through the list-writing process to make clear.

Jeb (IC): What are your thoughts on Mitch Keller? Future #2?

Jarrett Seidler: Yep. There are about three or four guys with a case as the best pitching prospect in baseball and Keller is one of them. Back injury is a small but existent red flag though.

Justin (Des Moines, Iowa): Can Cutch fetch back a top 100 prospect or two?

Jarrett Seidler: Reasonably priced option for 2018 and has bounced most of the way back? Heck yeah he should.

Jim (Kentucky): Meadows just can't seem to stay healthy. What is his upside?

Jarrett Seidler: Upside is still a star. Injuries are piling up and making that harder to reach.

Jeb (IC ): Can C.J. Edwards become a top 10 closer someday?

Jarrett Seidler: He's pretty darned close to a top ten righty reliever already, so absolutely. Because of the optics, perhaps some teams are less likely to have him close?

Mike (ATL): Next Year's Ronald Acuna?

Jarrett Seidler: Blake Rutherford about right for where Acuna was coming into the season?

Adam (NJ): Top 5 prospects in 2019?

Jarrett Seidler: Brendan Rodgers, Eloy Jimenez, Sixto Sanchez, Juan Soto, Vlad Jr.

Max (CALI): What kind of potential does Fernando Tatis have? Top 10 prospect eventually?

Jarrett Seidler: Yeah, we've got some really great reports on him. Top ten might be aiming high, but that James Shields deal looks nuttier by the day.

Bob (Louisiana): What should I do with Urias in my forever keeper, 5x5 roto league? Do you think he comes back to full strangers eventually (2019?) or should I try to deal him away?

Jarrett Seidler: As with the earlier Price question, what are you getting for him? If there's real value, absolutely flip, but you're probably stuck with the distressed asset for now.

Tracey (Louisville): What kind of career do you expect from a couple Cubans: Lazarito and from Luis Robert?

Jarrett Seidler: They're both in the DSL. Foreign complex leagues are a huge blind spot for the public scouting community. I've heard better things about Robert than Lazarito, for whatever that's worth.

Paul (Georgia): Please rank the offensive potential only of these players: V. Guerrero, Robles, Soto, B. Rodgers, Eloy, Maitan, and Acuna. Thank you

Jarrett Seidler: Eloy, Robles, Rodgers, Acuna, Soto, Guerrero, Maitan. The first six could be in any order.

Bambino (Bronx): Do you expect any of these Yankees prospects to be fantasy standouts: Rutherford, Wade, Fowler, Andujar, Florial? Thank you in advance.

Jarrett Seidler: Rutherford's got the best shot, all but Andujar have a decent shot. Florial is another name that's really risen this season.

dtothew (Atlanta, GA): Apart from having one of the best names in the minors, what can you tell me about Genesis Cabrera? He seems like the latest in a long line of pop up Rays pitching prospects.

Jarrett Seidler: Steve Givarz is the king of Florida and he wrote him up earlier this season as an athletic fastball/slider lefty up to 95.

Todd (NY): What have you heard on Andres Gimenez? Seems to really be holding his own despite skipping 3 levels......what can we Mets fans dream on with this kid?

Jarrett Seidler: Saw him for a series, quite liked him but it's not necessarily a huge tools upside profile like Rosario is. He's not going to be on the midseason 50, but he has a shot at the 101.

pedro (Deep South): How good can tyler mahle be as a fantasy SP?

Jarrett Seidler: The consensus on Mahle is mid-rotation upside. But remember what I just said about Steve? Steve really loves Tyler Mahle.

tom (NH): Brandon Marsh or Khalil Lee as a young building block in a dynasty league?

Jarrett Seidler: I suppose if forced to pick I'd pick Lee, but how deep a league are you in to be looking at these guys as building blocks?

Charley (SC): Scott Kingery or JP Crawford in dynasty league? Do you still have any hope JP Crawford can be better once he reaches majors (like Lindor)? Does he have a Lindor like ceiling still?

Jarrett Seidler: I'd take Crawford, so yes, I still have hope. But Lindor? Man, Lindor barely had a Lindor-like ceiling, MLB Lindor is a very very very high percentile outcome for Prospect Lindor.

Carl (UC Davis): Is Edwin Rios destined to be a Quad A superstar or does he have a path to being a big league slugger?

Jarrett Seidler: Wilson has written him up as a potential regular with plus-plus raw power. Cody Bellinger might be the most formidable roadblock in baseball right now, though.

Lord Hayes (Connecticut): Is Nick Neidart a t100 prospect? Close?

Jarrett Seidler: I would expect him to be in consideration at the end of the season, but there are dozens of guys in consideration that don't make the list.

Seth (Washington, DC): Where do you see Juan Soto ending up at the end of the season in the prospect rankings?

Jarrett Seidler: Top ten to fifteen if he comes back healthy and keeps doing his thing.

Baseballdeity (Chi Town): Understanding that Bellinger is an outlier - who are some 1B prospects currently in the minors ready to contribute at a MLB level?

Jarrett Seidler: Bellinger is a literal unicorn. Rhys Hoskins and Dom Smith are probably both as ready as they're going to be.

Baseballdeity (Chi Town): Does F. Martes project as a starter or reliever long term? 6.06 BB/9 in a SSS so far since his call up but was 7.79 BB/9 in AAA before the call up (SSS).

Jarrett Seidler: I always have to check to make sure we're talking about Francis Martes and not Frankie Martes. Does anyone else have to?

Martes projects as a starter with a relief fallback. (Montas projects as a reliever all the way.)

RDBL2014 (Concord, CA): When do you think we will see Ryan McMahon in Colorado? He seems to have really turned a corner this year.

Jarrett Seidler: Bunch of Ryan McMahon questions in the queue here, so let's talk McMahon: he's regained a lot of his stock, but the actual Hartford park has turned out to be a comical bandbox and now he's in Albuquerque, one of the best offensive environments in baseball, so let's tap the brakes a *littie* here. The downsides: it's settling in as a first base profile, there's concern he might be a platoon player, and there's concern he might not hit better spin (which is probably not something he's going to learn how to do in Albuquerque, a peril of the PCL).

kjesanis (New Hampshire): Does Amed Rosario's poor June (highest k rate, .220/.272/.347) give more credibility to the Mets decision not to promote him? Is it an adjustment, or is he just "bored"?

Jarrett Seidler: Monthly splits are basically a Voros's Law thing. If someone has a bad *report* on him, that would give greater credibility.

I will say that one concern of leaving Rosario down there is that Vegas tends to run high temps in the 100s and 110s this time of year, and that facility exacerbates the heat issues.

kjesanis (New Hampshire): Whose your favorite fringe prospect?

Jarrett Seidler: It used to be Tyler Wade until he ended up on our 101. Nick Fanti is a "crafty" lefty in the Lakewood rotation without premium stuff, but he has awesome pitchability and command for the level, and he's got enough stuff to be a real if fringy prospect.

Trixie (San Diego): Where do you think Zach Cozart ends up?

Jarrett Seidler: With Tampa trading for Hech, I can't think of an obvious trade fit. Maybe the Reds extend him?

Ham (Ny): Any Mets improve their prospect status this year?

Jarrett Seidler: Jordan Humphreys the most so.

Mike (NY): So what do you think of Francisco Lindor's profile, went from a high average hitter with some pop to a low average bomber.

Jarrett Seidler: Given that he's only 23, he's probably going to do all of these things at the same time in some season to come. I'd say that would make him the MVP, but Mike Trout is still not of this planet.

Greg b (Queens ): Is Johan Urena back to being in the Mets top 20 prospects

Jarrett Seidler: I don't think quite yet -- remember that he's double-repeating the level. But I haven't mentally mapped it out that far to be honest.

Mike (NY): So when is Victor Robles getting promoted to AA, also who do you like better him or Devers?

Jarrett Seidler: I can't imagine Robles is far off a promotion. I think I like Robles better by a hair, but they're both right there for me, likely global top five now.

Punchoutpappy (First in Flight): I kinda like what Anthony Banda has been doing. The ERA/DRA are not good, but he pitches in a place where the laws of gravity don't exist. Your thoughts?

Jarrett Seidler: Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about Reno stats. Everything's still pointing towards a mid-rotation upside. Heck, we ranked him first in the system last offseason.

Punchoutpappy (First in Flight): After watching A LOT of Willy Adames in Durham, I don't get the hype. His glove is fine. But I've seen him dribble the ball throughout the infield and hit a ton of IFFB. Reports are still warm on him. Where do you think he ends up in the midseason?

Jarrett Seidler: Adames has always been a profile prospect for me: a polished prospect and a good bet to hit a little while staying up the middle, the type of player who is very likely to be an average or slightly better regular but not likely to be a star. I think generally his rankings have reflected that.

It would be cheating if I told you his ranking, ha.

Punchoutpappy (First in Flight): Thyago Vieria had been getting quite a bit of publicity for his heater during AFL. Has there been anything of note on him since?

Jarrett Seidler: Don't think we've had eyes on him and I haven't heard much chatter. As weird as it sounds, minor league relievers popping triple digits just isn't that notable an event anymore.

Mike (NY): So gut feeling who do you think will be the biggest prospect traded at the deadline?

Jarrett Seidler: We had an interesting discussion at the Baltimore event about this. I think I landed on Triston McKenzie or Kyle Tucker.

Arnie (NYC): Who'd you rather target in a dynasty league as a seller. Clint Frazier, Vladito, or Ronald Acuna?

Jarrett Seidler: Frazier due to proximity with similar upside.

tbdubbs (New York): Two part question and thanks for doing the live chat! First, what's a way to evaluate minor league numbers? I see a guy like Willy Adames put up a mediocre BA but some put him developmentally ahead of Gleyber Torres at his age. How can we read beyond scouting reports and box scores to see the real talent? Second, do guys like Ryan McMahon or Alex Verdugo have a shot of getting a permanent callup this season?

Jarrett Seidler: Adames hasn't been ahead of Gleyber Torres for some time. Torres has way more hitting potential, but it's not something that's necessarily obvious from a triple-slash; it's more to due with raw power and bat speed. The best way to tell is, of course, making it out to games and watching a lot of baseball. Secondarily, talk to as many people as you can who know the players and know the game.

McMahon and Verdugo could both be up at any time. Both those teams are contending and don't have an immediate organizational need, so it depends on injuries and the like.

John (San Francisco): Can you tell me nice things about A.J. Puk? Or give me hope that Matt Olson will learn how to hit left-handed pitching?

Jarrett Seidler: Kate Morrison saw Puk's Double-A debut and had some very nice things to say about his fastball/slider combo in the Ten Pack this past week. Olson...yeah, that sure looks like a platoon profile.

Mark (Cleveland): Monte Harrison or Jake Gatewood, who is going to be more of an MLB impact bat?

Jarrett Seidler: Gatewood has always had monster tools and has a plausible narrative for why he used to suck and now doesn't -- finally got contacts to correct poorly diagnosed vision problems. So I'll take Gatewood.

Ceej (Pittsburgh): So do you see Gleyber up next Julyish?

Jarrett Seidler: I think the clawback for a year of service next year is something like April 21st. Reckon they'll send him down to "work on his defense" or whatnot.

Brian (NY): Why don't you guys like David Thompson, you and Jeff wouldn't even discuss him in a recent podcast?

Jarrett Seidler: He's a fringe 3B with a fringe bat who hasn't been young for his levels. Until he shows something else, it's a role 3 profile.

Baseballdeity (Chi Town): When can we expect the mid season 50?

Jarrett Seidler: Probably next week.

scooby (MM): Who would you rather own right now in a dynasty -- Gausman or Gsellman. Follow up: are they buy lows or sell for pennies?

Jarrett Seidler: Gausman has a longer track record of MLB success. I would buy low on both, but it should be really, really low.

rkessl (Chicago): Thoughts on Alfaro? Power with swing and miss and no walks doesn't sound that exciting.

Jarrett Seidler: Same kind of prospect he's been for about six years now, just at Triple-A now instead of short-season ball. Still has the great raw tools, still could put them together into a monster at any time, but aiming at an okay regular profile if he doesn't.

Catchers are weird and not subject to normal developmental paths, though. We were taking these types of questions about Gary Sanchez at this time last year and now he's the second-best catcher in the game. It just clicked one day.

Mike (NY): So has Yoan Moncada slipped since the start of the season, High K-Rate, lower ISO, and still poor defense.

Jarrett Seidler: Nah, he's fine, and a contender for the top overall prospect spot.

Kodak (PA): Am I crazy for thinking that either Nimmo or Cecchini can end up as an average or better regular?

Jarrett Seidler: I think Cecchini's got a better shot to end up there than Nimmo now. Average regular is still within reach for both, but Nimmo's just never going to get that physical projection and Cecchini's defensive issues have hurt his stock a lot.

Mike (NY): So in 10 years who is the best SS? Lindor, Correa, Seager, Bogaerts, Turner, Rodgers, Torres, Rosario?

Jarrett Seidler: Are we confident that any of these guys except Lindor is a shortstop in 2027?

Charlie (Tampa): Should we start to get excited about Alec Hansen's potential with the White Sox?

Jarrett Seidler: I think I'm officially the BP Alec Hansen advocate. Yeah, it really seems like he's put it back together, and it was a 1-1 type profile before it fell apart. Whole thing puts him a little back on the developmental curve -- he's now a level behind Puk, for example -- but he's a pitcher so that's not a huge deal.

Jarrett Seidler: Thanks for the questions, everyone. Excited to get the midseason content going soon and I'm sure I'll be back chatting soon.


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