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Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday June 07, 2016 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

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Jeffrey is a senior member of our prospect team and host of our brand new BP Mets podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hello all, Jeffrey Paternostro here from the prospect team and BP Mets. I will also be at our July 9th stadium event at Citi with notable luminaries like Sand Alderson, TJ Barra, and Wags. Let's chat.

DJ (Dallas): Jeffrey, Thanks for the chat! It's been a revelation watching Jurickson Profar. What kind of production do you expect from him (assuming he stays with Rangers)? If he stays, how do the Rangers find ABs for him? Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Jeffrey Paternostro: So he probably isn't a .370 hitter, and he probably needs to walk a bit more (which will happen once he stops smashing everything), but wouldn't you feel better with him as your everyday DH over Fielder, even ignoring what Profar can give you in the field as well?

dylanrox (New Orleans ): Better start this week - Chen at MIN or Odorizzi at Arizona?

Jeffrey Paternostro: For a moment, I thought this referred to Bruce Chen and I was shocked he was pitching for a team other than the Twins. It's Wei-Yen, and both pitchers have similar profiles. I guess I would take the guy facing the Twins. Arizona lineup still has some dangerous hitters and it is a tough park. But one game variance here.

Lefty08 (Arkansas): For 30 team fantasy leagues, what is a general strategy for prospects. Is it a general rule to lean more towards bats, or is it better to be more down the middle? Thanks for the work!

Jeffrey Paternostro: I assume this means a whole lot of prospects get rostered (for reference when you ask me these things the last fantasy league I played in was an AL-only H2H where I rode a good John Lackey Angels season and a post-deadline-dealt Placido Polanco to a title). I would go for balance. Guys far away with upside, closer, higher floor guys, arms and bats. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Jim (St Louis): I kn ew Jake Arrieta was a fraud. The guy is terrible. He sucks. Every Cardinals pitcher is way better

Jeffrey Paternostro: Best chats in baseball

D- Lezz (Cleveland): My Indians are really good huh? Do you like them? Do you like them a lot? are you proud of them?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Honestly I thought the White Sox would be the sneaky good team in that division. looked good for a quarter of the season I guess.

bc (bensalem): any names that you are hearing in for phillies in round 2?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Chris is the better guy to ask this question and he is chatting Thursday conveniently. It does seem pretty obvious they are going significantly underslot at 1.1 to try and grab a guy at 2.1 that drops. That is a long wait though, and a lot of teams pick twice before their second pick, even if those teams don't have quite the bonus pool. I've heard the same names you have, Anderson, Rutherford, etc. Someone always drops. Just don't know if it will be that far, barring a pre-draft deal (which aren't allowed (winkwinknudgenudgesaynomore)

Steve (Delaware): I know you havent seen him yet and its only 2 starts but what can you tell us about Andrew Church and his repetoire? Is he someone us Mets fans should be keeping a close eye on?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Acast has him touching 95 and throwing a slider. That is intriguing if nothing else (and more than enough for the Sally). It was such a weird amateur profile, and then he was never really healthy as a pro. They worked hard on his change in Kingsport in 2014, that will be the difference between intriguing, and legitimate starting pitching prospect. Also, he has to stay healthy of course, and the best indicator of future pitcher injury is past pitcher injury.

Enrique (Long Island): What is your preferred choice for the Bingo team name next yr.....I personally hope, for comedy sake, that they go with "Stud Muffins". Would go well with their Netflix and Chill promo ;)

Jeffrey Paternostro: I am a Rumble Ponies guy. Though I do enjoy the thought of a giant anthropomorphic muffin as a mascot. Still annoyed the Yard Goats overthought it and didn't go with a goat in an old timey conductor's uniform.

BC (Urbandale): I recently saw a BN article that said if the Jays think theyre out by deadline, Cubs could be a landing spot for Bautista. Thoughts? Smut? that lineup would have to come with a parental advisory.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think this is just idle gossip. I don't see the Jays selling, as I think the East will be close enough, and the WC race a mess in the AL. That said, where exactly is he playing for the Cubs? LF I guess?

Eric (DC): This summer's Victor Robles?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh how about Wilkerman Garcia? I don't know that he jumps to top 10 prospect by Summer 2017 like Robles, but I probably should have figured out a way to get Garcia on the Yankees top ten (and definitely should have figured out a way to get Tyler Wade on there). And a lot of the industry sees Staten Island.

Craig (NYC): Thoughts on Amed Rosario's Potential?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I guess Rosario could be this Summer's Robles? Gotten huge reports on him both internally here at BP and from scouts that have seen him. He is repeating (though still young for the level) and I do want to see how the approach holds up in Double-A, but the offensive tools seem to be catching up with the defensive ones.

Joe (Cincy ): Assuming Phillies take Puk at #1, do you like Lewis or Senzel for the Reds ?? Thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: Again, I would defer to Chris here, but I will say that Lewis' profile would scare me a bit me at #2.

Alexei (At Work): Jeffrey. Are there any Low Minor Mets Prospects you are higher on then others who haven't been discussed?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would assume Ali Sanchez, Desmond Lindsay, and Luis Carpio are fairly well-known nowadays. I liked Harol Gonzalez in Kinsport last year, but I don't know if the frame holds up as a starter and it is far more polish than projection. Nabil Crismatt has a chance to make a major league pen. I liked what I saw from Max Wottell in a brief GCL look. Arnaldo Berrios is fun as a mini-Baez that will never hit even as much as maxi-Baez. I guess Raphael Ramirez is my guy, he is super-raw, but it's a true CF profile with some potential pop.

David (Atlantis): Hey Jeffrey. As a member of a prospect team is there a specific type of player you seem to be more inclined to? Some former members have been more inclined towards Dominican hitters & some other with pitchers with good change ups.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I used to like fringy grinders and polished arms with advanced change-ups (Milone, Ynoa), but nowadays I am more inclined to take dudes on a case-by-case basis. For example, I was really impressed with Raimel Tapia this week, and that would never be a profile I would have fallen for in the past. I guess young middle infielders with some polish (Wade, Luis Guillorme, Carpio) would be the closest I have to a type right now.

Dom Smith (Binghamton): Which recent Mets draft pick would you take back if you were in charge and time travel was possible?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, okay, fine. I'd take Jose Fernandez over Brandon Nimmo.

Gregory (Queens): Rene Rivera is really bothering me - I know he's got the cannon and he's good for controlling the game when Syndergaard is pitching but I crunched the numbers (to prove that my eye test wasnt wrong) and ithe guy is having Syndergaard suddenly throw his 4 seamer more often than his 2 seamer, is lessening his slider usage all the while upping his FB usage in general. Is the guy an idiot? I guess this is a long way of saying I miss Travis d'Arnaud......

Jeffrey Paternostro: I wouldn't read too much into that, it's what 3-4 starts? Also, throwing a 93 mph slider a lot seems like it could have bad consequences. I will say that I have noticed some odd things with sequencing team-wise from time to time.

seddrah (Seattle): Why is Blake Snell still in the minors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.

Leonard (None of Your Business): Could you tell us what should we think about the performance of Cody Reed so far this season? (I refer to the Arizona one) Is his performance something we should be paying attention to as legitimate or is it more smoke & mirrors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I haven't seen him, but James Fisher did and filed a pretty glowing report.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=356

I will say that low 3/4 slot lefties with a four-pitch mix will obliterate A-ball even if they don't have Reed's stuff, but cautious optimism sounds good here.

dave (ny): what grades would you give to each of thor's 5 pitches? you think he might 1 day be a guy with 4 80's in his repetoire?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If we are separating out the fastballs, right now it is probably something like 80 4S, 80 2S, 80 SL, 65 CH, 60 CU. The change could get to 7, but I can't see it getting to 8, and it really doesn't matter.

dustinbayley (Toronto ): What are your thoughts of Carlos Rodon's potential rest of season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Man, I thought he would be a breakout guy this year for the White Sox. Like top 20 in the AL breakout. But the fastball command just hasn't been there. Brooks has hitters slugging .627 off his four-seamer. That is a problem. I still believe, but sometimes hard-throwing lefties take time.

David (NJ): Dunno how much you follow the draft but who would you like to see the Mets go after and who intrigues you the most at their 2 early spots?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It sure sounds like the Mets are popping Wake Forest 3B Will Craig as an underslot pick at 19. I assume they will use the savings to grab an interesting prep arm at 31, but the draft is very fluid at that point.

Gotta grab a quick call. Be back in a jiffy.

Andrew (State College PA): I don't understand how the 19th pick could be locked up at this point? This is all about pre-draft deals? Why would Craig agree to an underslot deal with the Mets and not another team?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This is just speculation, but from Craig's standpoint, underslot at 19 pays more than slot at 35.

Tim (Chi Town): #1 prospect in 2018?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh geez. I could troll Phillies fans and predict Jason Groome, but let's go with something closer to chalk and Victor Robles.

Matt (Bluegrass State): Speaking of Tyler Wade... what can you tell us about him? First division regular?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He sure has a shot at it. Would help if he can stick at SS, but everything looks right at the plate, borderline plus-plus runner, strong approach, and kid can hit.

mjm488 (New York): After kind of falling out of prospect favor, is there anything to make of Nimmo's seeming resurgence over the past month? Or just Vegas noise?

Jeffrey Paternostro: A couple Nimmo questions in the queue. We talked about Nimmo a bunch with Toby Hyde on this week's episode of For All You Kids Out There (available on iTunes). He is pretty much the same guy, doesn't hit lefties, does hit righties, can play centerfield. That guy has a ten-year career if he makes the last adjustment to major league pitching, but it isn't sexy. It's like David Murphy. Mets also don't have a role for a LHH platoon guy with Cespedes flanked by two lefties.

Ian (NY): Any shot in hell Senzel, or another college bat who is not a first baseman, falls to the Mets? Or is this a question for Thursday's Crawford chat?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I really don't see a college bat falling. Those guys generally go more or less where they should. There is some more fluidity overall this year with the class, but it sure looks like Craig is the guy.

Jasmine (Syracuse): Who is the safest of the elite prospects? If you had to put your $$ on a hitter and a pitcher to make 5+ All Star Games in their career...who do you choose?

Jeffrey Paternostro: JP Crawford. Premium position, good defender, close to the majors. Even if the power doesn't come, it's Lindor lite.

lipsgardner (Couch): Clint Frazier is slowly getting better and better. Swing and miss is still there, but not as much. And he's walking more, hitting for a higher average, the power is showing up, and his body seems to be really developing. He'll end up in a corner, but do you see him jumping up in to the top 15 or 20 by the second half? And if not, why?

Jeffrey Paternostro: That is a bit high for me. As you said, he is a corner guy, and there is still some risk in the hit tool. I have gotten more positive reports on him than in the past, but you really have to be a future star as a corner guy to get that high. I can't quite buy in that much yet.

Kaylee (Delaware): No chat is complete without a Byron Buxton question.. What are your thoughts on him and do you think he will live up to his potential ceiling?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Which potential ceiling? He was getting Trout comps once upon a time. He has struggled with spin a lot, but the tools will cover for that some. If he turns into an gold glove CF and gives you a .250/.300/.420 line, that's a massive player

sbnbaseball (NYC): when do we see Dahl and Tapia patrolling the outfield in Coors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I have a feeling they will go year-by-year with Tapia. Dahl hasn't looked amazing when I have seen him, but he performance probably merits a promotion to AAA for the second half. Let's say Dahl June 2017, Tapia late 2017. Don't know how they are going to figure that PT out.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): What is going on with Wuilmer Becerra? He's smashing the ball but with zero power. Shouldn't we be seeing that now that he's 21 and no longer plays in the SAL?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The great unanswered Mets prospect question of 2016 (it's been really boring otherwise). Got a report on him that says he has flattened out the swing a bit and is gearing for contact and it is working. He also has had shoulder and back issues this year, that could sap power. This is where I put in the Twitter shrug and hope they promote him in July.

sbnbaseball (NYC): Have to think Twins fans would be very disappointed if Buxton slashes .250-.300-.420, no?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Twins fans are disappointed that Brian Dozier doesn't make enough productive outs. It's a low bar.

lipsgardner (Toilet): I picked up Josh Hader a few weeks ago after seeing his gaudy numbers. He's put up similar numbers all the way up the ladder, and this year in AA the numbers are even better. Do his stuff and ceiling seem to match the numbers, or am I looking at a back-end guy, in your opinion? Cause when I watch video of him, it's hard to not see a little bit of Chris Sale, and his numbers back that up

Jeffrey Paternostro: The dangerous thing about Chris Sale comps is you usually end up with Alex Wood.

Andrew (State College PA): I haven't heard you talk about Cecchini in a while. What's your current opinion of him? Is he a utility infielder or can he start at SS/2B in the majors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I haven't talked about him much recently because my opinion hasn't really changed. He is what he is. He can hit .270, maybe walk a bit, and stand in the middle infield. If he was even a passable SS that plays, but the defensive tools just aren't there. Your good utility role 45 guy that won't kill you if he has to start for two weeks.

Cory (Ohio): Think Gallo or Profar gets traded?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think they can find a role for both of they want to acknowledge sunk costs, but they could also get you just about any available dude in July. Will be interesting to see how Daniels balances 2016 and the future.

Dan (LA): Next BIG prospect nobody is talking about?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The funny thing is, this guy doesn't exist anymore. There is just so much coverage from 16yo IFAs to the upper minors. There are guys I like more than others, guys I am and have been a year early on, but you can't go around throwing 6s and 7s on guys most people haven't heard of. Well at most places at least.

Jeffrey Paternostro: That is all for me today, but if you want to find me a beer or two in, talking on background and using more profanity, join us at our Citi Field event on July 9th. Oh yeah, Sandy Alderson will be there too. You can ask him the fantasy baseball questions. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29194


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