Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris

Chat: Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday June 05, 2014 2:00 PM ET chat session with Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris.

Talk to BP draft expert Nick J. Faleris before and during today's first round of the amateur draft.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Thanks for joining me for this MLB Draft chat! We are going to keep things running throughout the evening, with probably an hour or so break at some point as I'll be shifting locations. It's an exciting class and tonight should give us a lot to talk about. If you haven't already, make sure you check out 100,000+ Draft-related words published at BP here: tinyurl.com/2014DraftIndex

GrinnellSteve (Grinnell): I saw three different mock drafts this morning that had the top 3 the same and in the same order: Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek. Each of the three had a different player going to the Cubs? Are the Cubs that much of a wild card in this process? Or is there absolutely no consensus after the top 3 players and any team in the fourth spot would be sending out schizophrenic signals about several equal candidates?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I'd argue there is no consensus anywhere, even if all the folks mocking seem to be reaching the same conclusions. To me, there are three elite talents, but the fall-off to that second tier is small enough that, depending on the opportunities you have later in the draft (where you picks are located) you could make a case for seven or so guys worthy of top three consideration.

Nick (Chicago): If the Astros don't take Aiken at 1-1, would the Marlins pop him at 1-2?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: If they aren't at least considering it, I would be shocked. Aiken is an elite profile.

Ace (PA): Could Keith Weisenberg go in the second round? Are there any sign-ability concerns with him?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Definite signability concerns, as is the case with most Stanford commits. The profile fits top 50 or so overall, but it could take big money to keep him away from Stanford. And contrary to convention, going to college is not a terrible thing for all ballplayers, from a financial standpoint.

DH (Pittsburgh): JP Crawford or Nick Gordon? Any similarities?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Crawford is more tools and promise; Gordon is refinement. Not many similarities to my mind, no.

Nate (Illinois): Is Ti'Quan Forbes someone we'll have to dream on for the next 5 years? Or are his skills refined enough that he could be pushed at an accelerated (relative to other prep hitters) rate?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Five years is a bit hyperbolic, but you probably will have to wait on the body maturing some and the actions catching up to the body and athleticism. Very high upside, but likely to be a non-linear developmental path.

Max (Peoria): Why would any of the top tier guys signs for a million or more below slot as you mentioned on effectively wild? Is it just risk that they won't get as much if they re-enter? Anything keeping draftees from colluding with eachother to make sure they ls refuse to accept less than slot in order to maximize bonuses?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: From an advisor/player standpoint, it's a matter of trying to lock in the best deal you can. Remember the slot allotment fall-offs are steep in the top five picks (that's the first grade of decrease, with the next 15 picks declining at a lesser rate, and the 20 after that lesser still). What that means is the money a team has at #2 overall is two million or so more than the money the team has #4 overall, and it's around $4.5 million difference between 1 and 8. In a class where the talent is tightly packed, it very well might make sense to agree to, say $6 MM at 1 overall rather than risking a fall to #4 where the most a team can offer you is $4.6 MM without going over slot. Players won't collude because it's not in their interest (and definitely not in advisors' interest).

Ace (PA): Thoughts on Joe Gatto?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Write-up from my positional preview piece (tinyurl.com/2014PosRev-RHP)

Gatto is another cold weather arm who could entice teams looking for prep pitchers that haven't been chewed up by year-round throwing. The body is a pro body already, with additional room to add strength. His fastball currently sits in the 90 to 92 mph range, touching 94, but the arm is quick and easy and could see a bump in velo as the body continues to mature.

He'll show an above-average low-70s curve with downer action, as well as feel for an changeup in its early developmental stages. Gatto has the present stuff and projection to warrant first round selection, and could be good value if he manages to slip to the second.

TwistedLogic (Toronto): If you were drafting for the Blue Jays and had the choice between Turner or Pentecost, who do you go for and why?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Pentecost. Better all around player; higher floor; more valuable position.

jwferg (Budapest, today): Are there any *expected* early high-school draftees that have scholarship offers and are genuinely undecided yet on college?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I read this question as "are there HS kids with signability concerns that are not yet known to drafting orgs?" I wouldn't think so. Teams investing an early pick and the money that goes along with it put in the work to make sure the kid is singable. If it falls through, it generally reflects very poorly (rightly or wrongly) on the guys responsible for that diligence -- primarily the area guy.

Frank (New Orleans): Who are some top position players on the board?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I assign a price tag to each of my top 180 or so draft targets. The top five for me in order are Alex Jackson (C, Rancho Bernardo (San Diego, CA)), Nick Gordon (SS, Olympia (Orlando, FL)), Michael Chavis (3B/2B, Sprayberry (Marietta, GA)), Braxton Davidson (1B, TC Roberson (Asheville, NC)), and Derek Hill (CF, Elk Grove (Elk Grove, CA)). I'd be shocked if those were the first four position players off the board considering none are collegians.

OwlFan (Boca Raton, FL): Florida Atlantic's Austin Gomber has been listed as one of the top 100 prospects by many outlets. In which round do you see him going in the draft?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: 3rd or 4th round on the merits, but could get squeezed to the late 4th, or even 5th, depending on how aggressive teams are with the deep crop of high school arms.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Would you agree that power is the weakest tool in this draft?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: It's not an overly impressive defensive class. I think there's a fair amount of raw power, but it's playability is an issue.

Josh (Boston): Can Forrest Wall play CF? Or is his ultimate position 2B?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: He has the foot speed for center field and I wouldn't be surprised to see him show a good nose for the ball there. The arm is going to be below-average, but he might be able to make it work. He's a solid defensive second baseman, though. I think he sticks.

Keith (Manchester, CT): Thanks Nick, How high do you think Jeff Hoffman might go in the draft if he were healthy? And assuming he comes back strong from TJ surgery, where do you put his ceiling? No. 2 starter maybe?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: He'd get top three overall consideration. He was the best arm I saw all year.

Rick (Chicago ): Any Illinois prep guys cracking the first 3 rounds?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Evan Skoug (C/1B, Libertyville) has a shot -- the bat has first round upside but the game is raw behind the dish. Jake Godfrey (RHP, Providence Catholic) looked like a potential second rounder entering the year but stalled out some developmentally -- if a team likes him enough from the summer/fall showings, he could get third round attention.

Spencer (Berkeley): As an admitted sofa-scout who's overdosed on youtube vids, scouting reports etc. Am I insane to have Touki near the top of "my pref list"? It seems like his ceiling approaches or even exceeds Kolek and Aiken; mechanics are solid-albeit inconsistent- and the stuff's electric.. that curve...

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Touki is a worthy top five overall target, for me. I like the growth in his game over the last 18 months, lots of projection, relatively low-mileage on the arm, and you can't teach that spin rate on the curve.

Mike (IN): Will you follow me on twitter?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Potentially, but I guess it depends on the utility of your tweets (quality of info/entertainment).

tomshipley75 (Chicago): Do you think it's a good strategy to take the best bat available at the top of the draft and look to stock up on pitching in later rounds/free agency? Seems that this is the thinking of Epstein & Hoyer (especially if they take a bat at #4 tonight).

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I think it's dependent on the talent available, right? I can see the argument for it in this draft if you value a portfolio approach. There is potential for impact arms to be available in the second and third, maybe even fourth, rounds, so if there is a bat you like at the top why not pop him there?

Myrick (Charleston, SC): Name 5 players expected to be drafted that have the highest hit tool/power combo?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Braxton Davidson (TC Roberson (Asheville, NC))
Kyle Schwarber (Indiana)
Alex Jackson (Rancho Bernardo (San Diego, CA))
Derek Fisher (Virginia)
Michael Chavis (Sprayberry (Marietta, GA))

Conforto lacks the hit for me and Zimmer the pop.

James (South Bend): Is Max Pentecost's bat first round worthy if he had to move off catcher? Is he athletic enough to make a Craig Biggio-like transition to second base and how would the bat play there? Thanks.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Yes, especially when taking position into account. He is athletic enough to find a new home if he needs to, though my guess is that would be more a result of the rigors of catching 130+ games a year than an inability of Pentecost to handle the position defensively. I'd be fine with the bat at second base, but it drops his aggregate value.

Shawn (Office): When is the deadline for MLB teams to sign draftees?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Would have to double-check the date -- around July 15.

Ace (PA): Some think Kodi Medeiros goes top 15. Doesn't that seem like a reach? I'd rather have Luis Ortiz.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Oritz comes with some medical concerns, but I agree he's the better draft day investment for me. Medeiros is a second-pick dream, though, for an org that wants to roll the dice on big, big upside. The floor isn't too shabby either.

Young Beedah (Vandy): How far do I fall? If I fall to the 20's which teams would be most interested? Any chance I join Sonny in Oaktown?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: The team that's interested is going to be the team that believes you can rein things in a bit and start consistently executing your pitches. Doesn't seem like an A's arm, but i'm sure they would consider the total value of the profile -- upside/risk -- in making that determination.

Shawn (Office): Who is someone that will be popped in the late 1st/sandwich rd that in 3-4 years we won't believe how he lasted that long?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: It's a long list considering the tight clustering of talent and team-to-team variation on the boards. Some of my favorite talents that I don't see readers often asking about (which I take to mean they aren't getting big national pub) are Michael Kopech (RHP, Mt. Pleasant (TX)), Mitch Keller (RHP, Xavier (IA)), Alex Blandino (3B/2B, Stanford), Chase Vallot (C, St. Thomas More (LA)), Carson Sands (N. Florida Christian (FL)), and Sean Reid-Foley (Sandalwood (FL)).

If by chance Touki or Chavis fall, that could be a steal, as well.

Shawnykid23 (CT): How would you compare the top 3 arms in this year's draft to last year's? Basically, ignoring MILB performance, only coming into the draft how would you rank Appel, Gray, Stewart, Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I'd strike Kolek and add Nola as third best arm in this class. Then give me Gray, Aiken, Rodon, Appel, Nola, Stewart. I could be talked into arranging the last three in basically any order. Also I could be talked into Aiken over Gray without much effort. How's that for hedging my bets?

MetsFaithful5 (Syracuse ): Give us mets fans a brief scouting report on Sean Newcomb? What's his potential? How quickly could he be in the big leagues?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Here is my write-up from the left handed pitcher positional preview piece (over 5700 words on the top LHP for the draft): tinyurl.com/2014PosRev-LHP

"Big bodied lefties with four major-league offerings will always be in high demand on draft day-even moreso when two of those four offerings have plus potential. That's what you get with the Hartford lefty, who can run his fastball up to 97 mph while working comfortably in the 90 to 94 mph range. His slider flashes plus in the low-8os, with good shape and some bite. His curve and changeup will both flash average, with the curve coming with clean 1-to-7 action, capable of changing the hitter's eye level and serving as an effective change of pace.

Newcomb doesn't repeat his delivery consistently, and as a result he can struggle at times to command his stuff and show consistent execution, particularly with his secondaries. If it all clicks, there's front-end upside, but he profiles better as a solid mid-rotation arm capable of eating innings. There's a lot to work with, and team buying into the ability of its dev staff to tease more consistency out of the mechanics and execution could pop him as early as the top 10 picks."

Mike (DC): What grades would you give for present/future #flow?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: You've got to tell me who I'm grading, Mike!

GrinnellSteve (Grinnell): I saw the Perfect Game mock draft with contributions from you. They went Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Gordon, Nola. Does your personal mock draft differ from theirs? Thanks.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I participated in the PG mock by sharing info I thought relevant to the project, but I'm not really in the mock draft game. To be honest, I don't see the point (but I understand why fans are so interested). To me, from a draft fan's perspective, the aggregate collection of draft talent is so interesting I don't really care that much about figuring out who is going where before it happens. Plus, I don't like pumping guys for info when they have so much else going on. There's a lot of pressure tied into the amateur draft evaluation game, and I prefer to interact with the evaluators (at the field or by email/text) with them knowing I'm not going to turn around and break "news" they share.

All that said, I think I'm going to publish a "should draft" this afternoon, which will step through the guys I think teams "should" select, with a discussion about draft strategy with each pick. I find that way more interesting from an analytical standpoint, and it's something not many other draft coverage folks provide (even if it comes off as a little pretentious).

Mike (DC): Sorry. Your Flow.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Highly volatile as of late. When everything is clicking, it's borderline elite. Unfortunately, when the mechanics get a little out of whack things ripple quickly. 70/75 raw, 60 playable on average. Grade gets a bump due to #thickness and #body

Matt (Fresno): Why might the Giants deviate from their usual MO of drafting a pitcher with such a high pick? The only time in the last 20 years have they selected a position player when selecting 14th or higher was Buster Posey in 2008.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Depends on who is available and what they are looking to get out of the pick. While "draft best available" is a mantra you will hear repeated, teams often manipulate their boards to match 1) org needs, and 2) player profiles the org is good at developing. That's a general statement, which is not true of all teams, but as a overarching matter is accurate. College bats, HS arms, and college arms all strong possibilities as far as excellent value in that 14 spot.

aidanh21 (So Cal): If the Astros don't take Aiken do the Marlins scoop him up? If not who does?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: It's hard for me to envision Aiken falling out of the top 4 picks, especially with the Cubs system light on advanced arms.

Quick call; be back in 5 or so. Thanks!

MKPJ (chicago): You're not very high on Conforto's hit tool. Could you give me an eventual Avg/Obp/Slg that I should expect once he settles in as a regular Major Leaguer? Thanks

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: He's in the range of a .260/.335/.475 guy to me, with some potential volatility in the OBP and SLG depending upon how effectively MLB arms can challenge him in the zone.

Spencer (Waterloo, ON): AA says the Blue Jays will balance risk/certainty more this draft than in recent years. Does that preclude them from taking both Hoffman and a prep pitcher in the first round?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I don't think so. There are certainly prep arms that carry less risk than others, and there is also an opportunity to go with higher floors in the second, third, fourth round to help create a more balanced risk portfolio for the draft class.

Flash (Texas): Does Dee Gordon's long awaited development into a major league regular have any impact whatsoever on Nick's draft status? Does it give teams a little more to dream on, now that Dee looks like (for two months, anyway), a solid major league 2B.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Their games aren't really similar, nor is their physical makeup, so it's unlikely the developmental path of one will much affect opinions on the other. Nick is a more refined player is more physical than his brother, with a lot less speed.

jeshleman13 (home): You seem to be higher on Braxton Davidson than some other analysts. Do you think he can play the OF, or is it that the bat is so good that he's still worth a high pick even as a 1B?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I think the performance-related struggles with Davidson are tied to fixable quirks in his swing that were present in the spring and not a factor last summer. The upside is big enough on the back end that I don't mind a little developmental risk on the front end -- especially when we are talking about a potential 60/60 hit/power left-side bat that won't turn 18 until after the draft.

Anthony (Nj): With more younger players coming into the league and making a bigger impact during the past 3 years. Are teams looking at newly drafted players to make an impact sooner than they have in the past? Has draft strategy changed because of it?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Also, in response to the previous question, I think Davidson is a first baseman, but I don't have any issue running him out of an outfield corner to see how he handles it.

To Anthony, I think there is added focus on young, cost-controlled major league talent right now, and as a result teams are doing a better job (or at least trying to do a better job) of giving the bump in value to draft profiles that come with more certainty, even if it's at the cost of upside. I think you can see some orgs skewing in that direction, certainly, if only by way of a more balanced approach.

confused (chicago): Seems like there is a consensus top 3 but then from 4 to 8 or so it's all over the map. Is there a big talent drop from 3 to 4? Are the Cubs just in an unfortunate position for not having tanked a game or two?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I don't think there is a consensus top 3. AIken/Rodon/Jackson are the top three for me, and I could listen to arguments slotting others ahead of Rodon and/or Jackson. The Cubs are in a very good place, though the broad range of options puts added pressure on the process, since you ultimate have to pick one route and go with it.

Myrick (Charleston, SC): Can you tell me about Nick Gordon's offensive potential?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Potential plus hit tool, maybe better depending on how you view the added strength this spring, with a chance for average power if he gets a little more loft in the barrel. Could sacrifice some average for power, or pump the hit in exchange for closer to 40/45 pop on the 20-80 scale. Solid range of outcomes and has the feel for the game and make-up to take in instruction and reach that potential.

Ace (PA): Chances Chris Oliver starts in pro ball?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I think he has a decent shot. Probably not a quick mover, but there's physical projection, he's relatively young, and the fastball/breaking ball is a solid one-two right now, if a little inconsistent. I draft him without too many concerns about him sticking in a rotation, but knowing he has a chance to see his best two pitches play-up in shorter stints.

Litigator (Chicago): Keith Law said today that the White Sox have moved off of Kolek, and will take Nola instead. He has Kolek dropping to #8. Why? Kolek seemed like a great choice at #3 to me.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Kolek's body and velocity kept him on short lists as someone the teams up top absolutely needed to keep tabs on, but once that short list gets paired down it's easy to see why Kolek might get dropped in favor of a less risky proposition. Kolek is 11th on my board, and that's a result of him being highly underdeveloped, showing secondaries that at present fair often play below average, below average command, almost no track record (didn't play on the scouting circuit and had minimal exposure to the rest of the high-profile HS talent in the class), and highly overmatched spring competition (which could essentially be dominated by erratic fastballs).

He's a great prospect, and really interesting from a developmental standpoint. But it's more of a $3 MM investment profile for me than $4.5 or 5.5 MM.

jmoultz (Chicago): Thanks for rocking the marathon chat today, Nick! Any thoughts on what's going on with Matt Barnes? Doesn't seem like the curveball is making steps and the knack for getting hit hard seems to have followed him from AA to AAA this season. Is it time to downgrade his ceiling a notch or two? He's starting to look like a #3, at best.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Barnes has always been a #3 guy for me, but I honestly can't say I've seen him or talked to any one about him recently given my recent focus on the draft. Hit up Chris Mellen on Twitter -- should have money thoughts for you (@ChrisMellen).

Silverback38 (VA): Medical issues aside, would you rank Luis Ortiz above or below Lucas Sims, Miguel Almonte, and Daniel Norris?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I had Daniel Norris ranked higher than the other two Rule 4 eligible arms -- his issue as a HSer was finding consistency in his mechanics and executing his stuff. The raw grades were always borderline elite. I wasn't on Almonte as an international amateur, so it's tough for me to include him in the comparison.

Prich (Seattle): Could you rank the strength and depth of this class in the following regards: HS bats; HS arms; College bats; College arms

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: It's ridiculously deep on the high school arm side. The college arms took a hit with injuries up top, but it's still a solid collection. Maybe about average. HS bats are solid but a little light up-the-middle. The college bats are thin, but that's becoming more common as teams gobble up the high upside high school players, so it's probably closer to average than we evaluators give it credit for. There isn't a standout elite bat close to Bryant, though I think Schwarber would be a potential top 5 overall guy if he had defensive value.

jimbeau (Left Coast): Hi Nick, thanks for the chat. From what I've seen and read, I'd really like to see Cleveland go Chaivis, Chapman, Forbes. What are the aggregate odds that they would each/all be available when Cleveland is up? What do you think are the (substantialy lower) odds that Cleveland might do this? If, pe chance, they did, how would you asses that for a top end to their draft? Thanks.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I think there is a chance Chavis and Forbes are available, and I think that would be a steal to get Forbes that low. Chapman will certainly be available -- hit tool concerns and didn't have an overly productive spring. I think Chapman is available in the second, maybe third round, so look elsewhere for that pick. If you want a college bat consider Mike Papi (OF, Virginia) and certainly Derek Fisher (OF, Virginia) if he is somehow available. Blandino (3B, Stanford) a good target, as well.

jeshleman13 (home): Some prep arms have great stuff but struggle with command. What do drafting teams look for to distinguish between those who might improve command vs. those that probably won't? Athleticism? Mechanics?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Athleticism, arm action, and effort in delivery (included in this is the mechanism used by that pitcher to generate his power). Everything else basically ripples off of those aspects of the profile. Actually, I should include experience/coaching in that list as well.

edwardarthur (Illinois): Can you explain a little more about how you put dollar figures on prospects? Is it driven by total slot allocations or is it absolute? Stated another way, if Kolek is a $3 million profile, would that be what you'd advise a team to spend on him if he were a kid from the Dominican Republic?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: It's limited to the first year player draft (so not applicable to international signees) and done wholly independent of slot. Putting a $3 MM label on Kolek means the whole package (upside, risk, external variables) is worth a $3 MM investment. It includes external factors (which is unfair but a necessity) such as whether added money is required to buy that player out of a college commitment, with the easiest way to get a big bump being whether the profile is unique as compared to his contemporaries.

Utilizing a dollar value makes much more sense in the real world, because it has utility across the board. If I am the Indians with extra supplemental picks and Kolek has for reason slid to the first of my extra picks, I have a $3 MM valuation to work off of. Take my $1.5 MM slot and I have to come up with about 1.5MM in savings elsewhere in order for that signing to make sense. If I like that option, I have to gauge whether he is singable for that price before finally pulling the trigger. A lot of moving pieces, but that's the level of diligence you need to fully leverage your opportunities in the draft.

Bill (Bozeman): Nick, this marathon chat is great! Thanks so much!! Most mocks I've seen link KC to prep arms at 1/17, 1/28 and 1/40. I'm dying for them to pop a polished bat in the first round. It sounds like Schwarber has enough helium that he won't last, would you rather have Conforto with his hit tool concerns or Zimmer, a defensive tweener? Anyone that might be in the mix there?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: My preference is Conforto. I think his defense is undersold in left (not impact, but he can get the job done) and the power is legit to pull. Zimmer is a twiner for me that has more swing and miss in his game (esp. with wood) than is debited from his public profile, the power might be light for a corner, and it's likely the body is going to hang more mass.

The last two statements might seem to contradict each other, but I think the added mass detracts from his mobility without adding tons to his power game (because he isn't a strength/leverage guy at the plate).

Dave (KC): Big fan of Forrest Wall. Do you think the Royals would be reaching if they took him at #17 and is the weak arm that concerning?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Wall is a fine choice at 17. The arm isn't an issue for me because I think he handles second base just fine at present (if the arm were to get weaker it could be an issue). I'd definitely buy into an argument for targeting Wall in that range. It might be the best hit tool in the draft -- Ackley-esque ability to match plane and barrel, only Wall does it well with wood already.

Myrick (Charleston, SC): Could you tell us more about Schwarber?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: From my positional review piece covering catchers at BP (tinyurl.com/2014PosRev-C):

"Schwarber has a case for the title of best overall bat in the class at the collegiate ranks, showing plus to plus-plus raw power from the left side and the potential to hit for average at the next level. His strength and bat speed allow him to cover the quadrants and drive the ball to all fields, and he utilizes an advanced understanding of the strike zone to help find his pitches.

Schwarber's impressive offensive upside is key, as he's at best a coin flip to stick behind the plate. He is a below-average receiver with below-average arm strength, though he does move well for a player his size. If he were to move out from behind the plate, first base is likely the best fit, though a team could give him some time in left field to see if he can handle the position. The bat should play across the diamond. Schwarber is a clear first rounder that could fit anywhere from the back of the top 10 to the back of the round."

Derek ((MO)): Who do you see as logical options for the Cardinals at picks 1-27 and 1-34?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: If Fisher or Blandino are available at 1-27 I like those fits. Then I go one of the big HS arms at 1-34: Kopech, Adams, Ortiz, Sheffield, Keller, even Medeiros as an upside play (I don't know STL shares that sentiment). If Fisher/Blandino not available, I go with the HS arm first and round it out with maybe Papi, Gillaspie, or Dylan Davis? Would really depend on the full body of available talents.

ithmus (Delaware): If Kolek slips and Nola is off the board, it seems like the Phillies selection at #7 could come down to Kolek or Newcomb. Who would you pick?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Basically a coin-flip for me, with Kolek ranked ever so slightly higher. But I'm going to say Newcomb because I think the profile better fits Philly's current organizational needs and I don't think I'm losing much in the process.

Prich (Seattle): Who are some late RD 2/Early RD 3 names that you like that fit the following criteria: med floor/low ceiling college arm, high upside HS arm?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Hard to know which HS arms will slip, but Mitch Keller, Weisenberg, Gatto, Fulenchek, Supak, Cease, are all interesting upside options, in each case provided the price tag makes sense. Med floor/lower ceiling college arms I probably look to a reliever like Cederoth/Lindgren, or a starter like Stinnett, Graves, Oliver, Ellis, Strahan. I sound like a broken record (does the iPod generation even know what that means?), but it's highly dependent on who is available and if I think I can get any of those guys with my next pick.

Alan (IN): Can you give a quick rundown on Kyle Freeland? Are the elbow concerns the only reason he seems to have fallen in the past few weeks (BA had him outside the top ten in their mock today)?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: He had a very off day in his MVC tourney start (my video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VX-lpJSzmPo&feature=youtu.be ) and believe it or not that may have impacted a couple of the high level decision-makers in attendance. My understanding is that there is a split camp as to the medicals, with org policy basically governing how much risk, if any, to assign. He could certainly slip, but he's also a worthy top ten target.

Okay, sorry I'm not keeping up with all of the questions. Going to step away for about 90 minutes as I change venue and set up shop for this evening. Thanks for your time and see you again around 6pm eastern!

Shawnykid23 (CT): Do you think the Astros passing on the higher upside guys like Gray and Bryant for Appel last year (and very early on looking like the wrong move), further influences them to take Brady Aiken at 1:1?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Hi all; I'm at my new locale and ready to go through the rest of the evening. Thanks for spending your draft time here at Baseball Prospectus!

I think the Astros have a process, are driven by that process, and will make a decision based upon that process. If the process points to Aiken, that's where they'll go, irrespective of the org's opinion on Bryant vs Gray vs Appel a year later.

Amanda (MN): Seeing reports that Rodon's bonus demand is $6M+. Does that change the top of the draft at all? How far could he slide if the Marlins don't take him?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I wouldn't think so. If he slips past the first two picks that supposed $6+ MM price tag isn't going to matter. It would make no sense to put himself in the same position as did Appel two years ago.

wileecoyote121 (Larchmont, NY): Are the Mets seriously thinking about taking a high school second baseman with 1.10 today? Seems like an extreme overreach. Smokescreen?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: It makes sense as a smokescreen if there is a name attached to Toronto that the Mets really want. Don't give Toronto a reason to pop that player with their first of two picks. I could see a team kicking the tires on Wall that high, though, if they buy into the hit tool as a future 7 (which is not impossible).

Jasper (Leiden, the Netherlands): Hi Nick, I was wondering about Cody Reed, and why he's not more in the compensation round discussion. He's obv got a big fastball, but is the body also too big? The level of competition too low? The secondaries not good?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: So, the risk there is tied to the body and the rapid jump in velo. Then you have a commitment to Vanderbilt, a school that is known for holding on to its commits. The secondaries show promise but are still a work in progress, so an elevated price tag (if that is the case) is going to play against him if there is similar upside with other players in the supplemental first without as many risks attached to the profile.

xian (England): The Orioles have pick no 90, do they get a solid 3 rounder or stretch for a higher talent guy with questions? The positive of the latter option is if it works out you could get that first round talent guy, but the downside if it doesn't work out is you basically wasted the top pick of a Draft where you didn't have many top picks to begin with.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Baltimore will be restricted by its aggregate pool allotment, so there is a limit to how creative (and aggressive) they can get. The good news is the draft is deep enough that the players available to the O's could be equivalent to a 2nd round talent in, say, last year's class.If the right upside play is there, the Orioles could scrape together seven figures by saving on under slot signings later on.

Ace (PA): Any notes on Josh Prevost? What's keeping him out of the top 5 rounds?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: He likely fits in the mid-single-digit rounds (maybe late 4th to 6th? -- the more team friendly the signing bonus demands likely the higher he goes). Big body with a chance for a plus fastball, and a solid slider. I've heard potential reliever label attached to him, where his fastball-slider would play above average to plus.

wileecoyote121 (Larchmont, NY): Is Wall the fastest riser up the charts today? Didn't hear much about him over the last few days, now he's a potential Top Ten pick.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I had him in the 17-24 range based on my valuation, and have long felt he has a chance to be the best hit tool in the class. So it isn't a shock to hear his name as high as the early teens. That said, it's pretty rarified air for a prep 2b, so that drafting org would have to REALLY believe in the bat, because that's the carrying tool.

jimbeau (Left Coast): Thanks Nick! Continuing from before for Cleveland, so if we put off Chapman to Rd 2 or 3, how about a Chavis/Forbes/upside HS arm Maderios/Bukauskas/Gatto/Kopech or maybe Davidson if he is still there? I think I would be exited about the beginnings of the AZ Rookie Lg team! But, alas, I think this highly unlikely out of the Cleveland FO.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I like the aggressiveness but with three picks in that range I'd probably try to find some balance with a college selection. Of course, you could line up your next three picks with collegians and you'd probably find some good value there.

danrnelson (MPLS): If you were giving a future role grade to Nick Gordon, what would it be? Is he a first-division talent? I know comps are hard, but just for fun, any decent current ML comps?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: First division talent. Potential above-average regular at a high skill position with a 65/50 hit/power ceiling. That's not the most likely outcome, but it's pretty impressive upside.

Tito (Minneapolis): Why would a team move Alex Jackson off C? Is getting him to the big leagues quicker really more important than maximizing his positional value?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: For me it comes down to what you are looking to get out of the pick. The track record for high school catchers as a grouping is not great, and it generally takes a lot of work to turn a prep catcher with rough spots into a solid MLB caliber backstop. It also takes an awful lot of work to turn a prep bat into an MLB caliber bat. There's a lot of value in the bat, and you want to make sure first and foremost you give it every opportunity to develop. If Jackson is comfortable behind the plate I keep him there to start until I have reason to believe it's stunting his offensive growth. After that, I try him at third before RF and am willing to tolerate pretty bad defense up through Double A so long as the bat is progressing. The bottom line is if you're investing$4+ MM in the bat, you better but developmental focus on the bat.

meiersam22 (Sterling, IL): I'm probably just ignorant here, but what's with the "pop him" buzz phrase? Is this standard lingo or just a recent trend in draftspeak?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Has been used for as long as I've been around the fields in an evaluative role -- so almost ten years now (and I assume well before then).

Rob (Baltimore): Is Tyler Kolek's stock dropping? I've seen him fall as low as 8th in some mock drafts

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Hi, Rob. As noted earlier, I think there's some media correction in Kolek's value, which in reality probably runs as high as the top of some boards and as low as the teens on other boards. The Nola stuff could be an attempt to gain leverage for Kolek to lower an asking price, or the White Sox might have dropped him some as the pared down their short list and dug into the risks.

Cris E (St Paul, MN): So this year there doesn't seem to be as much consensus as in the past. Is it because the teams aren't certain how they're going to approach things or are the player evaluations just not agreeing/more varied? (Or is too much data making for too many rumors?) Or is this just like every other year and I'm crazy?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: The talent is tightly clustered and skewed to pitching, which is a grouping that shows a wide range of valuation processes between organizations (different focuses as far as risk, mechanics, body, etc.). That's a big part of it. Also, a lot of injuries and questions up top, which always complicates things.

JoeRandom (San jose): If you were the GM of a team, is there any one player you would "reach" for?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I'll take this question and narrow it a bit. "Pick someone that has a chance of being around in the third round or later that you would pick in the first if you had to find first round value."

Ignoring tough sign ability guys who otherwise would be considered as high as the first, I'll go with Josh Morgan or Cole Tucker. Different profiles with Cole Tucker offering impressive upside and projection and fun, high energy actions. Morgan a less sexy ceiling but a solid "now" skill set that can stick in the middle of the diamond with a chance for above-average hit.

Ace (PA): What's up with all these ridiculous comps on TV right now? It just feels uncomfortable hearing some of them. Am I crazy?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Full disclosure, I have the TV on mute and am listening to MLB Network radio on SiriusXM -- I recorded a bunch of the audio scouting reports that will be played as the players are selected, with the talented evaluators at Perfect Game USA also supplying a lot of the audio reports.

Mike (Detroit): Central Michigan RHP Jordan Foley is falling off draft boards, what gives??

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Was he ever that high on draft boards? I have him as a likely reliever; plus, hitters see the ball well.

Spencer (Oakland, CA): We're doing a draft thread over at Athletics Nation. Assuming they're all available, which of the following who do you think is the best fit for the A's? (not necessarily who they'll going to take): Wall, Forbes, Harrison, Blandino, Chavis, or should they fall, Finnegan, Fedde or Beede.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I have Forbes, Harrison, Blandino, Wall, in that order, next to each other on my pref list. All would be great gets.

Marie (San Francisco): Would the Giants consider Beede if he's there at 14? And is he one of those players who could be fast tracked?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: The key for Beede will be finding a way to rein in the stuff enough that he can more effectively wield it. It's legit front-end quality power pitching, but the command and control issues are hugely problematic. I like the upside pick, but would feel more comfortable if my dev staff had a plan laid out for me.

Shawn (Office): Do you think any team's success or lack thereof so far this year has altrered their draft strategy significantly? I see a lot of reports with the Tigers being linked to college guys who could help out of the bullpen by the end of the year?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I think orgs vary as to how they prefer to utilize the draft; if there are fast moving players available that can give you value as soon as this year, why not consider them?

Albert (Chicago): Is SiriusXM the only way to listen in to MLB Network radio?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I believe it's exclusive to SiriusXM, yeah.

@hopjake (Kansas City): Think a team pulled a Dozier in the top 10 again?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: There isn't a great opportunity because you have multi-pick land mines throughout the first round. So, for example, the Cubs saving money for a big spend could have their preferred target off the board before they even pick again.

canada (Canada): Any reasonable shot of Gordon falling past the Twins? If so, how far does he get or does he just then go to Seattle?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I don't think he slips out of the top ten. Seattle could be a fit but it would depend on who else is available.

Aiken to Houston at 1:1. Would have been my pick, as well.

hopjac (Kansas City): Great job on the podcast. Do you think teams are going to start to look at the north east for prep arms because they have less miles on them?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I think mileage on an arm is an important consideration. The trade-off is you may have more work to do on the developmental side as far as stuff is concerned.

Kolek goes #2. Any of the mock drafting media sites hit that one? I haven't seen them all.

jlarsen (Twittersphere, IL): Jake Gatewood a possibility for the Rays at 20?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Possibility? Sure. Would fit their sometime preference for big upside regardless of risk. There's a lot of work to do, though, and Tampa doesn't have the most sterling record when it comes to developing prep bats, right?

MarkL (Vegas): How many spots will a pitcher drop b/c of TJ?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Fedde probably the candidate to drop the most. Was a likely top ten overall pick and could drop into the supplemental-first. Hoffman has the advantage of being one of the few truly elite talents when healthy, so less chance he drops that far.

Alex (GA): Could Sam Howard of Georgia Southern be a first round pick?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: No. More mid-single-digit round profile. Maybe as high as fourth, but I'd think 5th/6th more likely.

Doc (Illinois): http://image.cdnllnwnl.xosnetwork.com/pics32/640/UB/UBKJDVQJXWXBRKC.20120608185701.jpg Has Nola already fixed this?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Is it just the arm angle? I can't see the picture.

Matt (NJ): any chance rodon could fall to the cubs based on bonus demands?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Nope.

Josh ((IA)): Does Dylan Cease get drafted in the top 3 rounds? Is Keller a second rounder and what is his ceiling?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: If Cease is singable, he get drafted. May not be in the top 3 rounds but someone will set aside the money for him. Keller is definitely a second round caliber talent; upside is front end starter, but there's obviously some space between present profile and that ceiling.

bob (pa): Who do you see the Phils taking with #7------they obviously need pitching------is Nola a good fit for them there?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Nola would be a great get there.

wileecoyote121 (Larchmont, NY): Thanks for staying with us today. Which draft pick today is going to combine the highest degree of risk (medical, tools-related, etc.) with the highest selection slot? One of the TJ pitchers, maybe?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Interesting question. Hoffman is the most likely answer. I think Trea Turner might top him, though. Real questions about the skill set playing and he's been at least mentioned with top 10 teams.

@hopjake (Kansas City): How many first rounders from last years draft would be in this one?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Maybe eight to ten? Bryant, Frazier, Appel, Gray, Ball, Shipley, Stewart, Crawford, McGuire?

jjdouglas (PA): Schwarber a bit of a reach? I trust the Cubs more than some teams, but this is unexpected.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: He can really hit. The position is a bit of a question, and I wonder if this doesn't signify the org is going to be moving one of their current prospect corner bats for some pitching.

Zack (Chicago): Cubs fan;thoughts on Schwarber? Law has him 26th

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I like the bat a lot. Loses value because of position; as noted above, makes me think they could be moving present corner bat prospect(s) for pitching.

Sheila (Daly City, CA): Which players drafted today could we see up in the Majors before the end of the season?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Most likel options would be Nick Burdi, Nick Howard, Aaron Nola, maybe Brandon Finnegan.

Nick Gordon going fifth overall to the Twins.

Straw Man (Birmingham): Rangers fan here. I've seen several mock drafts coming out yesterday and today as respective people's "final" mocks. Monte Harrison looks to have dropped in these drafts to #23, #25, #28, and a couple have him to the Rangers at #30. I love his athleticism and upside. 2 points: 1) do you think he drops to the Rangers and 2) what doe you think it takes to sign him away from his Nebraska commitment?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: He could definitely drop to the Rangers and would be good value there. I think he is singable in that range, as well.

Ian (OK): Where would Lewis Thorpe go if he were draft eligible?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Tough to answer since we have pro track record to look at. Seems like a first round fit.

Pat (Detroit): Who is the best talent on your board right now?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I go Toussaint, Nola, Freeland, Hoffman, Holmes at this point, but could loop 4 - 6 more guys and consider it comparable talent plateau.

Peter (St Pete): Lets say a team thinks this draft class is weak but projects the following year draft class as extremely strong. Could you see a scenario where a team drafts a player in the first round but has no intention of signing him so that they could get another first round pick the following year? Did the jays secretly do this with Bickford??

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I don't think so. I believe they really did like Bickford. Of the top guys in this class, a bunch of them really weren't known commodities last year, so banking on this kind of depth would have been pretty risky.

It's a good spot to mention, though, that this is why you don't freak out and yell that anytime you lose a pick it's bad for you long term. If the Jays pick a college arm with the comp pick they could end up with a comparable talent that reaches the bigs more quickly than would have Bickford.

RJB (Crystal Lake): Thoughts on the first five picks? Any mistakes? Steals?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I think all of those picks are solid. I'm really interested to see how Kolek progresses in the Marlins' system. Schwarber could move quickly and essentially jump in along side Almora and Vogelbach, and could ultimately catch Bryant and Soler in Tennessee before the season is up.

Zack (Chicago): after our first selection, who could we be targeting at 45?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Overslot arm. They don't have enough $$ in the pool to convince someone like Hoffman to so sky high with demands (Marlins/Astros/Indians/Nationals/Red Sox/etc. could all pop first), but if Fedde lasts that long he could be the guy. Probably a dozen HS arms that would make sense there.

@hopjake (Kansas City): Think the Yankees go the prep route?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Chase Vallot (C, St. Thomas More (LA)) would fit the profile; big upside bat.

Silverback38 (VA): Before the year started Michael Gettys was getting a lot of love. Now, everyone is saying he can't hit and will drop to low 1st rd. Can a team's developmental process fix his issues to make the pick a value later on?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Not if the issue is neurological (#Parks) and deals with processing info. It's possible he just can't pick up spin. A dev staff can help to smooth the swing, but a feel for the barrel is almost impossible to teach.

David Lo Pan (San Francisco Chinatown): Do you think there is a chance that the Giants snag Jack Burton in the first round?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I hear they've narrowed the list to two girls with green eyes.

Mario66 (Pittsburgh): Hey Nick. What position players who you project to go outside of the first two rounds (other than signability guys) have the highest upside? How about pitchers?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Evan Skoug has a potential impact bat and doesn't really fit in first two rounds. Bobby Bradley, as well. Isan Diaz, Cole Tucker, and Josh Morgan are interesting prep middle infielders that could fit that as well.

Pitchers, could be any number of guys that slip. Supak, Fulenchek, Adams, Varga, Sands, Verdugo, Blewett, etc.

Ryan (Denver): How quickly can Freeland move?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: He could be in the bigs by the end of next year. He'll need to make some adjustments as he tackles advanced bats, but he's comfortable on the corners and the stuff is legit.

Wesley (Utah): The Rockies take another college lefty? This is blasphemy!!

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Midwest arms; show some love.

sharkey (Twins Territory): How should I calibrate early hopes/dreams for a Nick Gordon ETA? 2018? '19?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Could move much more quickly. This isn't a raw toolshed. Gordon has a refined skill set and big league instincts. Could move very quickly.

Bill (Bozeman): Any sense for who the first team might be that mixes things up with a reach that messes up other draft boards?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I don't think we see many picks that cause board altering ripples (in a bad way). There are tons of options throughout, and particularly through the middle of the round. So lots of value to be found no matter who comes off the board ahead of you.

Casey (Iowa): Who do you have the St Louis Cardinals taking?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: High school arms and college bats would seem to be the likely options at that point.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Who has the best of the following tools of this draft class: Power (Raw/Playable) Speed Hit Tool Fielding Ability Arm Fastball Change-up Breaking Ball

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Power (Raw): Gatewood
Power (Playable): Schwarber
Speed: Derek Hill
Defense: Milton Ramos
Hit: Wall/Chavis/Gordon
Arm: Gettys
Fastball: Hoffman/Burdi
Change-up: Hoffman/Nola
Breaking Ball: Toussaint/Rodon

faithdies (DE): Am I the only one who worries about a guy who picks up velocity in College and then ends up getting Tommy John?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Don't a majority of arms pick up velocity in college. Seems like it would be tough to avoid that profile.

Wesley (Utah): Seriously, the Rockies since 2008 have drafted in the first round Rex Brothers, Christian Friedrich, Tyler Anderson and now Kyle Freeland. All Collee LHP, is this a theme of taking these low-ceiling players?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I wouldn't call Freeland low-ceiling. Has legit plus stuff and fills up the zone with it. Good performance arm with the scouting card to back it up.

Have to step away for about 20 mins on a couple of calls. Be back...

Lucas (Myrtle Beach): How many looks do teams typically get at their first round picks? 6? 7?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Double digits; multiple looks from area scout and regional supervisor plus multiple looks for national level guys (scouting director/cross-checkers) and then potential additional looks from top level baseball ops guys like special assistants, GM, etc.

Alex (Lancaster): Could brady Aiken pitch for us this year?? I want to see what all the hype is about

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: He is equipped to, but that isn't the Astros MO when it comes to developing their prep talent, I wouldn't think. He could see time in the complex and then maybe some starts in the MWL.

Jason (NYC): How many of these college arms that are drafte will play minor league ball this year? Or will teams shut them down?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Depends on 1) when the arms sign, and 2) how deep some of them continue to play in the college post-season. I could see Rodon shutting down for the summer than returning to the action in the AFL, for example.

Frank (KC): Do you see any players that could play in the majors now? Similar to Paco Rodriguez?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Nick Burdi, depending on how many more innings he logs. Brandon Finnegan, if right, could add value now. Nick Howard has the stuff for it. Lindgren. Nola, if they wanted to push him.

Most likely would be Burdi/Howard/Lindgren/Finnegan, all depending on where they go.

Dennis (LA): Did the Angels get a steal drafting Sean Newcomb with the 15th pick? How do you like him?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: It's absolutely great value. I had him as a $2.75 MM guy; slot about 300K below that, I believe. Potential mid-rotation arm that could bump to front-end if a dev staff can help him find a little more consistency in his release.

Mike (NY): Thanks for doing this awesome draft day chat Nick. Really appreciate it. I'm a big Mets fan. What are your thoughts on Michael Conforto? If you had to estimate, what would be his ETA? What's his scouting report? Thanks again Nick. These chats are great. Can't really find this info anywhere else.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Here's the write-up from my corner outfield preview (tinyurl.com/2014PosRev-COF):

"Conforto mashed his way through the regular season, slashing .364/.518/.578, drawing 50 walks to 35 strikeouts over 250 plate appearances. There's more pull-side power in the bat than his seven home runs would indicate, and he gets to it easy thanks to a pronounced uppercut in the swing and raw strength that allows him to generate easy lift and carry. The tradeoff is a diminished overlap of swing and pitch plane due to the barrel's quick passage through the hit zone. He can struggle adjusting to secondaries away, and there is risk the hit tool will lag at the next level as he is more consistently challenged with quality off-speed stuff.

Defensively it's a left field profile whose nose for the ball outdistanced the physical tools he uses to chase them down. He's a below-average runner with average arm strength that should be able to provide adequate defense at the seven spot, but lacks the arm for right or the coverage for center. He profiles as a power-first middle-of-the-order bat capable of 25-plus home runs a year. While the on-base production this spring has been staggering, the walks will likely drop some as more advanced arms challenge him in the zone. He could come off the board in the top 15 picks and is a lock for first round selection."

Videos at tinyurl.com/2014DraftVids

HalfStreet (Fairfax VA): Is it still Fedde the one for the Nats?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Yup. Here's video of Fedde from his stint with the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAzjS-F_j-g&feature=youtu.be

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: We're going to shift the convo over to Twitter where it's a little easier for me to post video of these guys (which seems to be a hit). We'll chat again on Monday with a recap of all the draft action. Thanks for the great questions; sorry I didn't quite get to them all. I promise if you hit me up on Twiter I'll answer at some point before I go to bed. Happy draft; don't forget to check out all the BP Draft Content at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23783!