The Professor talks prospects.
Jason Parks: Die Hard is a 1988 American action film directed by John McTiernan and written by Steven E. de Souza and Jeb Stuart, based on the 1979 novel Nothing Lasts Forever by Roderick Thorp. Die Hard follows off-duty New York City Police Department officer John McClane (Bruce Willis) as he takes on a group of highly organized criminals led by Hans Gruber (Alan Rickman), who perform a heist in a Los Angeles skyscraper under the guise of a terrorist attack using hostages, including McClane's wife Holly (Bonnie Bedelia), to keep the police at bay.
Here we go.
Tony (Work): Have your thoughts on Harper or Taveras changed at all? It seems like a lot of people have soured on both. Any new concerns with either or confident as ever?
Jason Parks: No. I don't see how you can sour on either player.
scott (az): Jason could you give me the low down on this Manuel Margot kid?
Jason Parks: Sure. J2 sign from 2011 (Red Sox/Dominican); very good athlete; lacks major league strength at present; good bat-to-ball skills; easy plus runner with instincts; can play CF; arm is a little light; power is a question mark given physical profile. 19 y/o and more than holding his own at the full-season level. We had him as an On the Rise player coming into the season, and he looks to be a top ten player (in that org) going forward.
scott (az): Joe Ross seems to be having a good year so far, is he going to be better then his brother?
Jason Parks: I'm not sure. I was always hesitant to go crazy on Joe Ross because I didn't see the bat-missing secondary stuff. As he climbed, I was always wondering where the outs will come from. But he looked much sharper in camp, and continues to show more bat-missing ability with both the lively FB and sharp breaking ball. The uptick in stuff and improved command are very encouraging developments.
scott (az): Is Trevor Story jumping back up on prospect lists with his great start or is his K rate still to high?
Jason Parks: Another guy who looked better in camp. Story had a really poor 2013 season, and some players fold when they fail and some take steps forward. Story is a gamer, and he is showing the ability to make adjustments. I'm not quite as high on his long-term outlook as I previously was, as I was probably too high on him coming into last season. But he can play shortstop, has some skills at the plate, and has a high baseball IQ, so its possible that he will turn himself into a legit player one day.
Steve (colorado): Will Kyle Parker be the next big thing at 1B for the Rockies after Morneau's contract is up next year? Guy is doing very well in the minors.
Jason Parks: I've never been very high on him. Its a tough profile to get excited about, and I think major league quality arms will get the best of him and minimize his power. Up and down guy for me, or perhaps a below-average regular.
Ryan (Atlanta): Any chance Corey Seager stays at SS? What is his potential?
Jason Parks: I think he's a 3B at the end of the day. Bat is going to play; hit and power. Most likely a ML regular with a chance to be 1st division. He gets overrated on lists based on the projection at shortstop, which as I mentioned, I disagree with and see a future 3B.
Jonah (Redwood): Hunter Harvey is blowing a lot of people's minds. I was pretty psyched for him pre-draft (mayhaps on lineage alone), but this is some video game shit. Can he keep this up?
Jason Parks: Sure. The stuff is legit. He will need to continue to refine his command and overall picthability, and that can take time. He will continue to dominate the A ball level, and won't face a serious challenge until he hits AA.
Craig (New York): Gavin Cecchini has surprised many by showing improved power this yr. By all accounts he's looked much better and has been on a major tear lately. Has his outlook perked up a bit?
Jason Parks: Not for me. I still see the same projection, which is a very good player--most likely a regular. But not the type of player at the major league level that his minor league numbers suggest is possible.
Dave (Queens): What are your thoughts on the early season success of Brandon Nimmo? Do you see his ceiling possibly as Shin Soo-Choo (but maybe with better defense).....lefty, decent avg, decent power, decent speed, high obp
Jason Parks: I don't see a ceiling quite as high as Choo. I've been low on Nimmo since he signed, as I'm not sold he's going to be a very good hitter. I might be too low on him and perhaps I should construct an article looking at why I'm so low on him. I'm not sold he's anything more than a good 4th OF.
Opi (Sheboygan ): Two questions regarding Kris Bryant
1. Who is a good comp for him? Longoria?
2. If he were playing this whole year in the majors what would you expect his stat line to look like by seasons end?
Thanks big dog.
Jason Parks: 1) Maybe Troy Glaus; 2) Bryant in the majors this season? He'd get abused but would still manage to hit some bombs. Very low batting average, 10-15 HR.
kiper90 (Rochester, NY): Professor Parks, what would your order be of these prospects if you had them in your farm? Alexander Reyes, Hunter Harvey,Francisco Mejia, Franchy Cordero, Ryan McMahon?
Jason Parks: Harvey, Reyes, Mejia, McMahon, Cordero
Javier Bust Ezz (Mendoza Line): Small sample size says quad A player. Approach says Corey Patterson clone. How long until you start to waiver and worry? What are other scouts saying?
Jason Parks: We need to see more. Period. But obviously you want to see elite-level players produce accordingly. I'm not panicking--by any means--but you have to be a little concerned with the extreme day/night shifts, and if that suggests a more substantial issues with his eyes/recognition ability. It's still a small sample and pressing could be the biggest issue right now. I'll just say that I'll be quite happy if his early struggles are the result of his confidence/comfort in the box rather than a recognition/vision issue, which can doom a player.
diarrhea (MD): what makes lucas giolito's fastball an 80 potential pitch? when I saw it it was really straight and 94 mph but maybe he was just having an off day
Jason Parks: COuld be an 80 based on the projection of velocity, movement, plane, and command. He can work that pitch in the mid-upper 90s, and when he stays over it, create a steep plane to the plate. Once he's able to spot that offering, its all over. That's the potential, anyway.
Turner (San Fran): Should I take a chance on Bradley or Snydergrass or Bauer?
Jason Parks: On Christmas Eve, New York City Police Detective Lieutenant John McClane arrives in Los Angeles to reconcile with his estranged wife, Holly. McClane is driven to the Nakatomi Plaza building for a company Christmas party by Argyle. While McClane changes clothes, the party is disrupted by the arrival of Hans Gruber and his heavily armed group: Karl, Franco, Tony, Theo, Alexander, Marco, Kristoff, Eddie, Uli, Heinrich, Fritz, and James. The group seize the tower and secure those inside as hostages except for McClane who manages to slip away, armed only with a service pistol.
Steve (Philly): If you could combine any two players tools into a Voltron, who would it be? I think a Betts/Gallo combination would destroy cities.
Jason Parks: A Betts/Gallo combination would destroy cities. His name would be Oscar Taveras
Ethan Spalding (Madison, Wi): Can Jose Abreu keep up his torrid home run pace, or will the swing-and-miss in his game eventually be exploited?
Jason Parks: Clearly shows elite strength and over the fence ability in the swing, but I do think he will start to get exploited more as we go along. But that's the name of the game: adjustments. If he can make the secondary adjustment after the book is written, he could be an elite player. But that's not an easy task.
UshMalik (Chicago): Can Baez hit .300 in his prime years, or is that just too much with the likely k-rate? Also, do you think Almora will have surprise power years? (25+ bombs)
Jason Parks: I doubt Baez will ever sniff .300. But left-side infielders with 30+ bomb potential are all-stars.
Almora has more raw pop than people give him credit for. I can see 20 HR potential.
Mikeked (Chicago ): With Hoffman going under if you were to rethink your choice for the cubs at number 4 in the draft, who would it be?
Jason Parks: Our mock draft wasn't about the team; writer's preference. I was given the #4 pick in the draft, and Hoffman was on the board when I was on the clock, so it was a no-brainer at the time. The exercise was just about talent, not team needs or direction. But I do think the Cubs will go with an arm, and they will be in an excellent position to draft a fast-moving pitcher, like Rodon (in the event that he falls) or a high school arm like Grant Holmes, who has terrific now stuff, a now body, and the chance to move very quickly for a HS arm
Ryan (Sarasota): Ben Lively anything more than a back end starter?
Jason Parks: That's about where I have him pegged. Maybe a #3 in a perfect world scenario, but a likely 4/5 type. Deceptive arm slot/action; FB works 90-92 and can touch higher; changes sight lines and can work all four quadrants; riding action; slider can miss barrels and is either a 55 or 60 pitch depending on the source; average to solid average CH/CB; good pitchability and workhorse build. Not bad.
Schiraldi (Philly): If you need a third baseman for the next ten years, would you take Gallo or Seager?
Jason Parks: Seager is safer; Gallo is the impact choice. From that position, I would be more tempted to roll the dice on the upside and take Gallo, even if I think he ends up in RF long-term.
EricJ (SF): Will Allie Stetson's bat end up better or worse than Ankiel's?
Jason Parks: I doubt it.
Tom (Boston): Can you tell me what to expect from Blake Swihart at the MLB level? Any good comparison players?
Jason Parks: It might seem a bit lazy, but I do think Swihart could get close to Varitek level production; 15 HR type with some contact ability, secondary skills to reach base, good defensive catcher that can control a game, captain type of makeup. I'm a big believer in Swihart, as you wont find many players in the game with his level of focus and work ethic. He's going to make it.
Jason (San Diego): In the debate between Burt Reynolds and Tom Selleck I see it this way: Selleck had a better all-around tool set, but Reynolds had more #sack that allowed his tools to play up to, and maybe above Selleck's. Agree/disagree?
Jason Parks: I agree that Selleck had a better all-around tool set and that Reynolds could play up to that level in the right environment. But I don't think he could play above Selleck.
EricJ (SF): Jorge Polanco is having a great season so far but does hit size severely limit his upside? I can't imagine where the power will come from
Jason Parks: Excellent bat-to-ball skills, but not the physical profile for big game power. The lack of power will limit the profile, but as long as he hits, he will have a chance to make an impact.
Kevin (San Diego): 5X5 keeper league, do I hold onto Fernandez through the possible TJS? I can keep him at the cost of a 7th round pick, so pretty good value.
Jason Parks: Gruber singles out Nakatomi executive Joseph Takagi claiming he intends to teach the Corporation a lesson for its greed. Away from the other hostages, Gruber interrogates Takagi for the code to the building's vault as McClane secretly observes. Gruber admits that they are using terrorism as a distraction while they attempt to steal $640 million in bearer bonds in the vault. Takagi refuses to cooperate and is executed by Gruber. McClane accidentally gives himself away and is pursued by Tony. McClane manages to kill Tony, taking his weapon and radio, which he uses to contact the Los Angeles Police Department.
Brandon (BC, Canada): What are your thoughts on Jorge Soler? If he can stay healthy I think he could be the best of the Cubs' "Big 4". He has everything you'd want from a RF'er #Diesel #Sparkle
Jason Parks: I'm not as high on Soler as most. 80 grade raw power. Its insane. But I haven't seen much adjustment ability out of him yet, either pitch-to-pitch or game-to-game. I think he can crush mistakes and punish crap arms, but I'm not sold he can make the type of adjustments necessary to find sustainable success against high-end pitching. I will gladly change my mind should I see these traits I'm looking for.
John (Baltimore): What do you look for in a hitter when he comes up to bat?
Jason Parks: Balance. Bat speed. Natural bat-to-ball ability. Strength. Recognition skills.
Cal Guy (Cal): Professor, Any news on A. Bradley, and has his prospect status diminished slightly given his struggles in AAA or do you attribute the struggles to his injury?
Jason Parks: I attribute his struggles to being a young pitcher that was not only dealing with some minor injuries but also (and more importantly) pressing a bit and thinking too much. He's going to be just fine.
spencersilva (Oakland, CA): Why aren't 20-80 grades given for on-base skills? It seems like most scouting reports note plate discipline in the abstract, but don't give a gradient view of how well a hitter gets on-base. Should this be integrated into "hit" tool assessment, or are on-base skillz the 6th tool (starring Bruce Willis)?
Jason Parks: Getting on base is a skill, and the 20-80 scale is normally reserved for physical tools. I think getting on-base is a by-product of sound pitch recognition skills and a sound approach to the overall process of when to swing and when not to swing, which can elevate the utility of a hit tool because it puts the hitter in more friendly conditions at the plate and allows them to take advantage of opportunities.
Tjco (Mattress Factory across from the Goldsteins ): With short season ball coming next month, other than this years draftees, which pitchers are you most looking forward to?
Jason Parks: I'm dying for short-season ball to start, and selfishly, I can't wait to see the arms slated for Brooklyn, such as Marcos Molina and Casey Meisner.
Tony (Work): Who's the one player that you're the most proud of the job you did scouting them?
Jason Parks: I tabbed Alfaro as a future all-star after watching him as a 16-year-old. We shall see how that pans out; saw a 16-year-old Mondesi on the backfields and felt strongly about his future.; same with Almonte on the same fields. Only time will tell with those types. Some of the scouting is pretty easy when the tools shine at that age. I love tools. I hit on some and miss on others.
heterodude (Philadelphia): Which Die Hard scene is most like watching a Joey Gallo plate appearance in person?
Jason Parks: Clay, Bill Clay.
JoeRandom (San Jose): When you dream on Victor Reyes, what do you see?
Jason Parks: Reyes can hit. The overall profile might be problematic, as its probably a LF profile and the game power is a question mark. But he can absolutely hit a baseball, and that should continue as he climbs.
Chris (Phoenix): Can you tell me anything about Franmil Reyes? Big and young in the Midwest League and holding his own.
Jason Parks: I wasn't on Franmil Reyes during camp. I thought he looked 28 years-old instead of 18. Huge kid. Hulking frame. Normally I would be all over this profile, but I don't think he will hit. Of course, he's hitting very well at the full season level, and the player that I found to be dramatically superior (Franchy Cordero) was pressing and failed in his first pass at the same level.
Andrew (Waco): Joey Gallo is becoming ever more wet. Three BBs yesterday. He always seemed to have good plate discipline, but it appears to have taken a leap forward this year. How much of that is due to pitchers deciding they don't want to throw him anything in the zone, and if it continues do the Rangers leave him in High-A all year to help consolidate his ability to lay off stuff outside the zone, or does he get bumped to AA at some point where he'll be forced to make adjustments?
Jason Parks: HIs approach has improved, meaning he isn't trying to yank everything out of the park and will use more of an all fields approach. Walks are great--I get it--but its far too common to overvalue walks at the minor league level. Most A ball pitchers can't locate numerous offerings, so if you were so inclined, you could probably keep the bat on your shoulders and walk once a game. What does that prove? Gallo is certainly a guy you don't want to make a mistake to, and I know some pitchers will avoid challenging him, But it needs to be remembered that most of these pitchers lack the command or the arsenal to be THAT careful to big hitters, so its not all that special to see a guy like Gallo drawing walks. At that level, I care way more about what the bat is actually doing than just looking at the walk totals. More to approach than just taking a walk.
Daff (Sheffield, UK): Hi Professor,
Have you seen Giolito pitch this season - any thoughts on his year so far?
Jason Parks: I haven't seen him yet, but CJ Wittmann from the Prospect Team has. Here is his report (always free): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=75
Nick (Chicago): Would the White Sox really pass on Tyler Kolek in favor of a college arm like Nola, Beede, or Finnegan?
Jason Parks: I would doubt it.
jbirenbaum (Toronto): Why can't Aaron Sanchez throw strikes?
Jason Parks: Delivery just isn't all that conducive for repeatability and his FB moves a ton, making it even harder to fully command. Here is Chris Mellen's latest report on Sanchez: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=104
Mike (Houston): Should we astros fans be worried about Mark Appel now? Supposed to be our future ace and is having issues in High-A?
Jason Parks: No. I don't think he will ever be an ace, despite where he was drafted, but people shouldn't be down on Appel because of his early High-A struggles. He didn't really get a full ST, and struggled a bit (the stuff was still very good) in his initial assignment. Perhaps the tandem system isn't ideal for a guy like Appel, but the Astros appear to want to take is slow and easy with him, protecting their sizable investment, Sending him back to extended ST is just a reset, a chance for him to get in some work without the pressures of a minor league game. I think he will be fine, most likely a very good 2/3 starter type, but I never saw a potential #1
jeshleman13 (PA): So many questions about bat speed. Is it something good scouts can just see with the eye test? What do scouts look for when assessing bat speed? Is it all about the hands? How palpable is the difference between average and above average bat speed? Is it something that a player can improve (and if so, how?) or is bat speed static? Conceptually, what's the relationship between bat speed and a long/short swing? I could keep going.
Jason Parks: You can tell the difference between good bat and poor bat speed. Just watch enough crappy backfield baseball and the good is easy to separate from the bad. A player can get stronger and improve the bat speed, but its usually there or it isn't. Long to the ball or short, you can still possess high end bat speed. I look for fast hands/wrists and the ability to fire the hips and whip the bat around and into the zone. I don't care how it gets there as long as bat speed is present and the hitter can control the barrel in order to square a ball.
Tim (GA): You've been higher on Victor Reyes than many. As a Braves' fan, I'm giddy at his stat line. Do you see power developing in the future? Maybe 15 or so homers?
Jason Parks: Not a ton of power; maybe 15-20 at the peak. Its more hit tool/contact, with very good gap potential. Several sources see a future .300 hitter at the highest level.
troy (arlington): has Ryan Rua turned himself into a legit prospect yet?
Jason Parks: He has plus raw power and can crush mistakes. He might end up an up and down AAAA type, or maybe even a below-average regular on the right team. He profiles to at least make the majors, so that makes him a prospect and not just an org guy, which is a scouting and development win for the Rangers. But he's not an impact talent and I don't see a sustainable future at that level.
Goose (Chicago): Do you think Mike Foltynewicz ultimately ends up as a late-inning reliever?
Jason Parks: I do. Grip it and rip at 98-101.
I'm going to take a few minutes to eat a bagel. Be back in 7 minutes. Over 350 questions waiting in the queue. You people are crazy and I love it.
WisBrave99 (Wisconsin): I’m in a 12 team Roto with three keepers, only one C. My main needs are R, SB, SV and a stop gap for G.Polanco and/or O.Taveras.
I was offered P. Fielder, C.Davis, S. Marte, G.Holland, S.Perez, A.Jackson, A.Sanchez for J. Abreu, K.Seagar, M.Holliday, A.Wood, G. Polanco, H. Rendon, M. Montero.
M.Montero,J.Abeu, D.Murphy, N,Arenado, I.Desmond, X.Bogaerts, K.Seager, M.Trout, J.Heyward, M.Holliday, C.Young, G.Parra, J.Gyorko, W.Rosario, G.Polanco, O.Taveras, J.Kipnis
A.Wainwright, J.Fernandez, S.Kazmir, J.Chavez, T.lyons, G.Flyod, A.Wood, T. Rosenthal, H.Rondon, B.Shaw.
I typically stream my back end of my rotation. I’m thinking I should sit tight with Young and Parra as stop gaps.
Jason Parks: Sgt. Al Powell is sent to investigate. Gruber sends Heinrich and Marco to stop McClane, but McClane manages to kill both. Powell, finding nothing strange about the building, attempts to leave, but McClane drops Marco's corpse onto Powell's car, alerting the LAPD who surround the building. McClane takes Heinrich's bag containing C-4 explosives and detonators.
Mike (Worcester): Any concern about Tim Anderson's complete lack of plate discipline? is this something that he can learn at this point?
Jason Parks: He's very raw and its not always pretty, especially when he's just swinging away at the plate. But it can look so pretty when it clicks, and I absolutely love Anderson. I love him. I think he's a 2B at the end of the day, but an impact player on all sides. It's just going to take a lot of time.
bryan (Santa Cruz): Music for the mood?
Jason Parks: I'm listening to John Frusciante's "To Record Only Water for Ten Days" record. Its incredible, as is everything he puts out on his own. 80-grade profile. Incredibly underrated as both a musician and songwriter.
Silverback38 (VA): Damn 350 questions! We love prospects. Curious….do you get tired of talking prospects when you're not on the job. I figured I better ask before you get here for the BP's DC Park Party.
Jason Parks: I never get tired of talking about prospects or player development. Its my passion.
nottes (MD): How was the bagel?
Jason Parks: Not great. Rushed it. But the cream cheese was #supple.
Steve (Nebraska): Still in love with Adalberto Mondesi?
Jason Parks: Still.
Dave from Pittsburgh (Boston): Josh Bell is starting to kill it in Bradenton, looks like your faith in him was well placed.
Jason Parks: Strong kid with good athleticism and feel for hitting, Its easy to like that profile. Add in his Texas roots and his ability to grow a mustache and it makes it even easier.
Mike Evans (North Side): Is Jeff Samardzija success a reality?...Or is he still just a football player pretending to be a pitcher?
Jason Parks: It's clearly a reality based on a large sample.
Mark (Naples): You're the only one who goes to eat in the middle of a prospect chat. You're the greatest. #want
Jason Parks: Thanks. I enjoy eating whenever I get the chance. But the patience is appreciated, and I apologize but I have to step away for a few minutes to take a call. My day never stops. I can't complain. Back in a few.
Brad (Joliet): Is there a snake oil salesman component to projecting minor league players? I ask that because in the Baez scouting report it mentions that he could achieve Miguel Cabrera level heights, but then barely a month into the season and you don't believe Baez will "ever sniff" hitting .300. Surely the report on the player hasn't changed that much, so what's the deal there?
Jason Parks: My opinion on Baez hasn't really changed. On the site, we attach our names to our individual assessments. When we put out prospect lists, that's a collective work of the staff and sources, compiled to show both ceiling and floor. While its entirely possible Baez reaches those heights--meaning he could hit 40 bombs from the left-side of the infield and crush all souls--its not necessarily representative of my specific feelings. Of course, my feelings are pretty close to that, even if I don't see a future .300 hitter. I see a monster, impact bat, possessing the type of power that warrants comparison to a Cabrera. Add in left-side defensive potential and there you have it. His ceiling is ridiculous even without a high batting average.
Steve (Milwaukee): Is Real Chili either real or chili?
Jason Parks: That place is pure crap and the chili tasted like Baez's contact rates in night games.
Daniel Norris (Florida): Have I developed into a Top 100 Prospect?
Jason Parks: You should have been coming into the season. I admitted that right after the list was published.
Andy5Schwall (MKE): Just wanted to say thanks to you and Mike for taking 10 minutes during the Brewer game to talk hitting with me. Really enjoyed the conversation. Hope BP comes back to Milwaukee soon because that was a fun event!
Jason Parks: We will definitely be back to Milwaukee. All of the events, that one crushed it on all levels, from the tailgate, to the Q&A, to the game, to Alan Parsons showing up at the post-game bar gathering, which was just strange.
Eric (Visalia): How much do you read into the nice offensive start Clint Coulter has had? Will he stick at catcher? How would his bat play if he had to move positions?
Jason Parks: Production is never a bad thing, but I see a really strong mistake hitter right now, and I'm not sold the bat will carry. I also don't see a catcher long-term, but that can take time and he can improve enough to make it work.
Clint Frazier (Lake County): How long before I make a transition of 5 O'clock hitter to game time power. Ive got the tools right?
Jason Parks: You have the tools. It will happen. Pull heavy approach writes the book for pitchers, but you can adjust. Incredible hands/wrists and premium bat speed.
Michael Kay (Yankee Stadium): Are you buying into Luis Severino? You had suggested preseason you projected him as a reliever.
Jason Parks: Fantastic arm. I would bet on him being a reliever.
James (Texas): Is Joey Gallo the best prospect in the minors right now?
Jason Parks: No he isn't.
Kevin (Houston): Brady Aiken or Carlos Rodon or if Daz Cameron was in this years draft?
Jason Parks: I bet Aiken goes 1:1, and its hard to bitch about that given the specifics of the profile. Rodon is tough to peg and I think we might over-think it a bit. He's a stud and shouldn't fall far. Cameron is a serious dude and would go very high in this class were he eligible, but I'm not sold he would go over those two arms.
Kevin Goldstein (Houston): I told you many times that Correa is better than Buxton. Look it right now, Buxton can't make contact and he is going to be a bust.
Jason Parks: Nice hat
Kevin (SF Bay Area): With the struggles Bubba Starling has had at the plate do you see converting him to a pitcher as a realistic possibility?
Jason Parks: I don't. I see him playing in the outfield, most likely reaching the highest level as a 5th outfielder (if he reaches the level at all)
Kevin (Baltimore): Is Hunter Harvey a top 5 pitching prospect in the minors right now? I am very happy about 20 team to pass him up.
Jason Parks: I wouldn't go that high considering the more experienced talent in front of him. But he will get there. He's legit.
eliyahu (DC): Josh Vitters' failure is due to:
1 -- Inability to adjust to better pitching
2 -- Decision not to go to college
3 -- Lousy coaching in minors
4 -- Poor oversight from Cubs FO
Jason Parks: 1.
Or (Denton, TX): Game of Thrones or Lost? #fantasyquestions
Jason Parks: I've never seen Game of Thrones, and I only watched a few episodes of Lost on Netflix and it didn't do much for me. When it comes to fantasy, I still look at pictures of Tom Verducci. That's all the fantasy I need.
Ben Lively (Reds Farm): At what point do my stats start to mean something? Everyone thinks I have backside potential only. Is there a certain point where these numbers will be taken more seriously?
Jason Parks: His production is being taken seriously, but the scouting is why he is projected to have backend potential. The numbers don't dictate his future.
Nick (Chicago): With the outbreak of TJ surgeries, would it make sense for a team (like the White Sox) to target Hoffman at 1-3, assuming his elbow will become stronger and won't need TJ in the future?
Jason Parks: That's too high in this class. It's also not accurate to assume his elbow will be stronger or that he won't need TJ in the future.
Tim (Chicago): One of the recent eyewitness reports had very similar grade tools for Dozier and Correa, but Correa is always considered the elite prospect. On a grade basis, where's the difference?
Jason Parks: He's much younger (so technically its more abstract; more room to develop) and is currently able to handle SS, a position that some think he can stay at for a while. Pretty big factors.
APJ74137 (Tulsa): Le Professuer, does Heaney come up and take Jose's spot in the rotation in the aftermath of the tragedy?
Jason Parks: Not a bad option.
Dan (NY): 4x4 AL Only, I can keep up to 15 players or 75% of the $260 budget if I finish in the top 4. Question is: why aren't scouts seeing Sam Elliott's mustache playing at the next level? It looks like 7 #fluff. Does the baritone impact perceptions?
Jason Parks: A SWAT team assaults the building with an unarmed M8 Greyhound armored car but the attack is anticipated, and James and Alexander destroy the car and massacre the SWAT team with rockets. McClane uses the C-4 to blow up the building floor occupied by James and Alexander, killing them both. Holly's coworker Harry Ellis attempts to mediate between Hans and McClane for the return of the detonators.
Victor (Dumfries): Has Hunter Dozier displayed enough to be deserving of his higher draft position and does this affect your outlook on him?
Jason Parks: He's legit. At the time, it seemed like quite the reach, even after they were able to pop Manaea. But after watching him a ton in camp, and talking to teams that drafted soon after the Royals did, Dozier wasn't going to last very long in that draft. He has more industry fans that I initially realized.
Tommy (Dallas): Will Rougned Odor stick?
Jason Parks: Eventually, yes. He wasn't brought up to stick at this time.
Boston (Boston): What kind of line can we expect from Lindor at the MLB level? 10-12 bombs with doubles and 300 avg. ?
Jason Parks: Yes. That's entirely possible (eventually)
Greg (Knoxville): Is Raimel Tapia a future big league starter or more of a 4th outfield profile? What MLB player is a good comp for him?
Jason Parks: Yes, he's a future first-division player. He doesn't have a 4th OF profile, in my opinions. I loved how people were so quick to jump off the off-season bandwagon after he started the season slow. It takes time and Tapia is still physically underdeveloped. CarGo is the comp several scouts seem to enjoy dropping, but I'd rather avoid that until he gets further along in the developmental process.
SonnyJames (Not Texas): What did Prof. Parks write in his secret notebook this week?
Jason Parks: I'v been working on a solo record, so I've been writing a lot.
aspolane (Houston): Should people be concerned about George Springer yet?
Jason Parks: They shouldn't have concerns beyond the concerns that they already should have had.
Chris Cotillo (High School, but soon Chapel Hill): Why do you hate me? #UNC18
Jason Parks: I don't. I'm a bully and you make it too easy. We just talk a lot of shit on Twitter. It's not all that serious. I hit Jeff Passan daily and he's a good friend and someone I actually respect even though I don't always agree with his approach. You are young and eager and I respect the hell out of that and wish you the best. Seriously. But it seems like you desperately want to be like Jon Heyman or Darren Rovell, and you appear to be well on your way given your advanced feel for self-importance and solipsistic approach. Kudos for that. But it does make for an easy target. You'll be fine. Ignore the likes of me and Jorge and keep doing what you do. Hopefully you avoid the trappings of a guy like Rovell.
Adding Mass (Studio): Any plans for a 2nd The Bear Coat album?
Jason Parks: We have two albums out already; Adding Mass was our second studio project, recorded in 2009 and released in 2010. The third record was written several years ago, and we already put down numerous tracks. But my life got crazy, and my studio partner had a baby, so things were pushed back. I'm currently working on a solo studio project; a conceptual and acoustic album about my alter-ego falling in love with various inanimate objects throughout the course of a day. We will see how fast I can push that out.
Steven (NOLA): Correa has really shown his power tool in games the past two years. Is he still growing into it, or is he going to be the hitter he currently is?
Jason Parks: He is still growing into his body, adding strength, and learning how to hit for power. He could be a monster.
Tom (Jersey): Where does Raimel Tapia end up in the midseason rankings?
Jason Parks: I'll let you know around the mid-season point. Haven't re-ranked anybody yet.
Bill (Bozeman): Do you see any chance Brett Eibner turns into an adequate major league hitter?
Jason Parks: I don't think so, sorry.
Zack (Ottawa): Any chance of a BP event in canada (toronto)?
Jason Parks: We would love to. Not always easy to set up.
porcupunk (Philly): You get a brand new MLB franchise and can pick one of the following two to get started: Trout, Bean. Who do you pick and why?
Thanks for all the hard work, including this chat!!
Jason Parks: Trout.
Burt (#stache): Pretty sure the Oscars created a new category for Best Chest Hair after Burt's performance in Deliverance. Also to consider in the Burt vs Selleck debate: Burt owned a nightclub in the '70s called Burt's Place. Burt's Place...that had to be the coolest club of all time.
Jason Parks: Good point. I might need to reconsider.
Todd (Chicago): Who from the 101 or just off has made the biggest jump so far in your eyes this early in the season?
Jason Parks: Gallo
sprite (Golden Triangle): Does Kolek have better stuff than Giolito heading into the draft?
Jason Parks: He has a bigger now FB, but I wouldn't put his secondary stuff on the same level as Giolito.
Zack (Ottawa): just give us some more die hard
Jason Parks: Sorry. Had to take a call.
I am John Galt (parts unknown): Which Asheville OF do you like best: Dahl or Tapia?
Jason Parks: I really like them both. A lot. But I would take Tapia.
Tony (Work): Do you think Carson Kelly can develop into a major league regular at catcher?
Jason Parks: Absolutely, I really like that kid.
Derek (KC): Raul Mondesi is such a high prospect, and supposed to be the next top of the order guy. I'm worried about his OBP skills though. What can we expect out of him?
Jason Parks: He's in High-A. Why worry about his OBP skills right now? He's swinging the bat, His skills can refine as he matures and advances.
Dave from Pittsburgh (Boston): What did you do to mourn the loss of Jose Fernandez?
Jason Parks: I drank a lot. Sorry for the delay. Had a player dev source call and I had to take it.
Rick (Evanston): I know you've been very negative about Delino DeShields's #want in the past, but in a roundabout way, was that ball off the face the best thing that could have happened to him? Everyone commented how upbeat he was afterwards, and it seems like a that type of injury, which could have ended his career, can really allow someone to appreciate the skills he has. And of course, acknowledging the SSSS (super small sample size), he has been raking since his return.
Jason Parks: Maybe. I think he's overrated by many. I rarely hear anything positive about DeShields. I think he reaches the majors, but settles in as more of a 4th OF type, which is not the type of player that I think belongs high on prospect lists, despite the bloodlines and MilB stats.
Steve (Philly): Better long-term ceiling: Ben Lively, Aaron Blair, or Jen-Ho Tseng?
Jason Parks: I would take Tseng. I dig it.
Mike (Worcester): Any reason to be concerned about Robert Stephenson's control issues? Is this just AA growing pains and learning how to command his offerings, or a possible injury sign?
Jason Parks: Just shows you the difference between major league pitchers and minor league throwers. Stephenson has incredible stuff, but if he can't locate it or make a pitch when he needs to make it, he's not going to find much success in the majors. This is what the minors are for. Development.
Luca (Milan): What the heck could happen to the World if Michael Sam will sack Johnny Manziel one day?
Jason Parks: Nothing. It will be a play on a football field. Nothing more.
Bret (Toronto): I know the draft isn't entirely your specialty, but how would you handle a case like Jeff Hoffman's if you were advising a team or working as a Scouting Director?
Jason Parks: Depends on where the team was drafting, the financial commitments, and my experience with the player. It's a very solid draft class, especially with HS talent and college arms. Hoffman has very big upside, but its a risk to pop him too high, in my opinion. I would probably advise a team to pass on Hoffman unless he slipped or we held a surplus of early picks.
nubber (tx): Do you think Jorge Alfaro will be a top 20 prospect in the game by next season?
Jason Parks: If he continues to progress with his development, yes, its entirely possible. His tool-based ceiling could make him a top 5 talent in the minors if he really pops. He's a power hitting catcher with a motherfucker arm. Those are unicorns.
rsambrook (Sacramento): In your opinion, will Rodon's heavy usage and high pitch counts cause teams to pass on him and ultimately cost him money as his draft position slips. Are college pitchers aware of this and is there anything they can do about it?
Jason Parks: What do you want them to do about it, refuse to pitch? These are highly competitive athletes that want to win, and only a small percentage of them will amount to anything on the pro level, so this is their de facto pro level and they treat it accordingly. Far too many people criticize college coaches for playing to win rather than tailoring their approach to please the developmental process at the professional level. COllege isn't a farm system for pro baseball, and its not their job to make decisions based on that faulty premise. But coaches do have a responsibility to handle their own players with an eye towards their own health, and that should be true regardless of any pro aspirations a player might have. Of course, who is to stay what constitutes a breach of those on-the-field ethics? It certainly shouldn't be third-party writers or Twitter experts throwing blame on every college coach who lets his pitcher pass the 100 pitch barrier. It's a complicated issue, but I think some of the workload complaints are unfounded and misguided, at least as blanket accusations. As for the specifics of the question: Yes; it could hurt his stock. But you aren't getting that ball from Rodon's hands, and that is something I admire in a pitcher and would elevate his stock for me. He's a huge competitor and winning means more than anything. I'll take that guy.
AJ (Phoenix): Lucas Giolito. Barring setbacks (read: injuries), it's looking like he's living up to his no-shit 1:1 caliber ceiling, no?
Jason Parks: It's possible. That's a lofty ceiling, but he has all the ingredients to make it happen if he can refine and execute.
Greg (Omaha, NE): Amed Rosario was getting a lot of press as an up and comer in the offseason. Any chance to see him lately? Thoughts on his ceiling?
Jason Parks: He's in ext ST; will play in the NYPL for Brooklyn, where I will stalk the shit out of him.
Mookie (Portland, Oregon): I'm so good that I could be a better CF than Jackie Bradley. Sell JBJ and bring me to field the Triangle!
Jason Parks: No. You couldn't be a better CF than Bradley. Sorry, Mookie. You are tearing the cover off the ball in Double-A and it looks much better than expected. But the emphasis here should still be on the fact that its AA and not the majors, and there is a huge difference in talent.
Nicky (Minnesota): Why Twins passed up "stud" Hunter Harvey and select "bust" Kohl Stewart? Was Stewart overrated?
Jason Parks: No. He was rated appropriately, and still is. Harvey was underrated by many and has made that very clear in his first full-season. But just because Harvey is blowing up the world doesn't mean Stewart--who was selected ahead of him--is a bust.
Kyle Zimmer's Shoulder (On Top of the Arm): Am I a concern going forward or just a minor issue?
Jason Parks: Shoulders scare me more than elbows--and elbows scare me as much as clowns.
trigger1583 (CA): Assuming health, what is Julio Urias' floor?
Jason Parks: #3 starter
Rob (Florida): Alex Reyes Ks are up BB down and I read his stuff is electric. What say you?
Jason Parks: He's very good and I'm glad he made his way onto the BP 101 this off-season. He still has a lot to refine, but again, this is why he's in the minors. If a pitcher could command two plus offerings, they wouldn't be in the minors anymore, would they? People throw around plus too much as well. Could be plus and is currently plus are two completely separate things. Throwing 92-95 is fantastic, especially when you can also show a true hammer of a curve. But until you can put that FB where you want it, and offer more than just a pretty CB shape and occasional command, you belong in the minors.
Sam (St Louis): Hunter Harvey - top 20 prospect in midseason rankings?
Jason Parks: Haven't put them together yet. Seems high but possible if he keeps it up and the scouting continues to back up the stats.
JMR (Chicago): Jeff Samardzija for Mookie Betts and Henry Owens. Who says no?
Jason Parks: The Cubs?
Rob (Baltimore): Kevin Gausman is being called up to start against the Tigers wed. Do you think he is here to stay?
Jason Parks: I hope so. We are very high on Gausman.
Kevin Brown (NY): How hard is it for you to get a grip on a prospect you only see while they are on a big hot streak and hitting everything?
Jason Parks: You can learn a ton from a player when he hits and a ton when he doesn't. You look for how he is hitting and why. Same when he isn't. In hitters, I want to see balance, bat speed, and barrel control.
Dave from Pittsburgh (Boston): Do you think Glasnow can overcome his control problems or do you see the bullpen in his future?
Jason Parks: He's an electric arm with very high upside, so you keep developing him as a starter until its no longer possible. I took a lot of shit from Pirates fans for not blowing him up in the off-season rankings, as some were extreme on him and put him in the top 25 range in baseball. Based on the ceiling, you can make that case. But I never felt THAT strongly about it to make such a case, because the control is well below-average, there is a lot of body to control, and the secondary stuff doesn't project quite as high as some of the other arms he was ranked ahead of nationally. I think he could become an erratic mid-rotation type or a high-leverage bullpen arm, but either eventuality will require a several grade jump in command.
Matt (Chicago): Where do you come down on the "sliding debate?" Should orgs start teaching against the head first slide as soon as they get players into the system?
Jason Parks: They probably should, but again, its hard to curb the natural aggressiveness of a player, and sometimes the headfirst slide is just a split-second athletic reaction. The last thing you want a player doing on a field is over-thinking something as natural as a slide. Maybe HS coaches (and lower) should start this process while muscle memory and neurological function is still forming.
WB (Florida): Does Max Stassi push the Astros to deal Jason Castro in the next two years to open up a slot for him? If not, would he profile as part-time DH / backup C.
Jason Parks: They shouldn't. Castro is the superior talent. Of course if they want to keep losing 100 games a season, sure trade Castro.
Todd (MN): Any team's farm been hit harder than the Twins this year?
Jason Parks: I doubt it. Its been tough.
Joe Random (San Jose): what kind of upside does Domingo German have? front of the rotation?
Jason Parks: Most likely a late-innings arm, with double-plus FB and an above-average slider coming from a whippy release.
Shawnykid23 (CT): What do you think of Alex Meyer. Do you think some of his success is due to a new change-up, and if so couldn't he be a monster?
Jason Parks: He could be a monster. Deep arsenal; unteachable size; impact offerings. Yes please, regardless of his future role.
sickboy19 (boston): Keith Law is still icing down after that slap re: College Coaches & Workload
Jason Parks: It wasn't directed at Keith, or any specific person. I just don't buy into the blanket arguments that college coaches are bad because some pitchers end up getting hurt. The issue [itself] is complicated and requires nuance, and just throwing out a cloud of blame isn't constructive and it doesn't solve anything. It often comes off like loud noise made for the sake of making loud noise. That accomplishes very little if anything.
Bert (Ticuma): Jake Thompson in highA for DET. Is he someone rising in your eyes? What is the report? I think he's a Texan also.
Jason Parks: Here is the (free) scouting report on Jake Thompson: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=68
Asking For a Friend (Chicago): What is one player that you wish you could have scouted as an amateur?
Jason Parks: Bo Jackson. I would have ended up in prison.
Aaron (LA): Who do you think will be the better MLB player. Austin Meadows or Joc Pederson?
Jason Parks: Pederson and I don't think it will be remotely close.
Esteban (South Jersey): What's the latest Franklin Barreto buzzbuzzbuzz?
Jason Parks: He's in extended ST. The buzz is muted until short-season starts.
tonynelson19 (MN): Based on your history of responses to fantasy related questions, it's safe to say you're not big into fantasy baseball. However, the increasing popularity of dynasty leagues has brought a lot of interest to prospects and scouting in the last couple of years. What are your thoughts on this? Do you see the added attention to prospecting as a good thing, as it creates more awareness of a huge part of the game that a lot of people don't know about? Are the self-serving needs of fantasy owners putting unrealistic expectations on minor leaguers still going through the typical struggles of the development process? Is it similar to someone turning your favorite classic movie into a drinking game and enjoying it for the wrong reasons?
Jason Parks: Excellent question(s). First of all, the rise of fantasy interest in prospects is basically paying my salary, so its appreciated in that regard. It can be problematic from the standpoint of reality because the rise of the fantasy player puts an unhealthy and often unrealistic interest in production, which is not always the first priority of a functioning developmental system. Do I get tired of being asked about prospects? Never. Do I get tired of being asked prospects as it relates to a fantasy draft or whatever? Rarely, as long as its about the scouting and not the stats. But I don't play fantasy baseball--nor does my work specifically focus on fantasy--so when I get asked very esoteric fantasy questions, I respond by being an asshole for my own amusement. Its a trade off and a paradox.
Johnson (New York): What makes you conclude Severino is a reliever? I'm not doubting the projection, I'm just curious. His delivery? His arsenal? Is there at least a non-zero chance he's a starting pitcher?
Jason Parks: The mechanical profile and the Yankees developmental success rate in recent years with similar pitchers with similar projections.
Tony (Work): Was reading the report on Bubba Starling and it seems like a lot of the problems with his swing is obvious, so why isn't it correctable? Should that be something that time in the cage could fix? Or do some guys just struggle to make those small adjustments?
Jason Parks: If its neurological, its not as fixable. Poor pitch recognition is something that I think has a finite ceiling, most likely established before I player is even drafted. You can make some adjustments and enhance your execution with the bat, but if you struggle to pick up the ball early out of the hand, diagnose the pitch, and react accordingly, I don't see that improving a great deal as a player ages. Basically, I'm a believer that the neurological stuff is either there or it isn't there, and I'm always shocked when dysfunction in this specific characteristic isn't discovered sooner in the process. If teams are willing to spend millions on a player, one would think they would explore such neurological functions in order to determine recognition and reaction ability before drafting or signing a player.
Eddie (Cali): In a Dynasty league - Hunter Harvey or Brady Aiken?
Jason Parks: McClane refuses to return them, causing Gruber to execute Ellis. While checking the explosives attached to the roof, Gruber is confronted by McClane. Gruber passes himself off as an escaped hostage and is given a gun by McClane. Gruber attempts to shoot McClane but finds that the gun is unloaded. Before McClane can act, Karl, Franco, and Fritz arrive. McClane kills Fritz and Franco, but is forced to flee, leaving the detonators behind.
Kyle (Canada): Hypothetical scenario: the Blue Jays season goes down the tubes, and your boy Dan Evans is named the new General Manager. He calls you up and offers you any position you want in the front office, saying he'll move the necessary people around to make it work.
Which position do you ask for and why?
Jason Parks: It would be an honor work under Dan Evans, in any capacity. But I do get asked this question often, and the truth is I'm not sure how to answer. Every situation would be different. But if I were to join a team, I would want to be a part of something with a structure and process that I believe in, a process that is built on intelligence and progressive thought and not just the trappings of the norm.
For the right team, the specifics of my job wouldn't matter. I would do anything that was needed of me. But my skill-set allows for options, such a compiling internal acquire lists by working with pro, amateur, and international scouts; scouting on all three landscapes, etc. It's not about the individual at that point. It would be about doing anything and everything to make your team better. The better your team does, the more likely you are to stick around for a while and really build something substantial.
Obviously the long-term goal would be a special assignment scout or special assistant, someone who gets to stay in the shadows but has a powerful voice within an org, regardless of the specific tasks involved. That's the long-term goal for most, I would assume, so I'm hardly different with my aspirations.
Jack Burton (Pork Chop Express ): What's your average day look like? What about your year? Does it change every day?
Jason Parks: Good question. It changes, obviously, but I can walk you through a typical day:
I get up very early most of the time, and I go to bed late and I often drink, so that's fun. But I always wake up early because I love to read and that is often a good time to either read or enjoy a cup of coffee with the wife. That's my time. But then I start working, which I absolutely love to do. During the season, that means reading incoming scouting reports, getting in contact with some of my guys on staff, planning future articles for myself (and others on the team) and absorbing information about what is happening on the fields. I work from home, so I take breaks often throughout the day, but I end up working late because I'll get calls about players from sources or staff late in the evening, and I love that shit so I don't complain. Weekdays are the same as weekends, and I end up doing something 7 days a week, although some days are heavier than others.
During the year, I have hot and cold periods of activity: I spend 4-5 weeks to start the year in camp, humping games every day and getting notes on players (great for developmental perspective as the year continues). Then I might hit a few series in the April/May months, but I'm mostly going over reports from my staff and writing articles. Then I try to hit it a little harder over the summer, especially when short-season ball starts, as that's my cup of tea (AZL, NYPL) When the season ends, its instructs time and then its lockdown for five months as I put together the prospect rankings and work almost entirely from home, excluding a few amateur trips to PG events in October or DR showcase events in January. Rinse and repeat come March.
Whenever I have free time I like to write music or have a life, but my days are usually consumed by baseball.
Theo Tacumsa (Little Geneva): Lucas Sims- SSS or working on something new for his arsenal-- or just figuring stuff out as a young guy in highA ball? #supahorny
Jason Parks: Throughout the developmental process, players are always working on things, from command to a new pitch to the utility of a pitch to pickoff moves to whatever. Sims is a stud. Do not worry.
Piz (Pittsburgh): Do you think Cecchini will be a high OBP type player in the pros? I've seen your not that high on him but is that due to the lack of power from the corner infield position or his overall hit tool?
Jason Parks: He has on-base skills that will translate on some level, mostly because he can swing the bat and make hard contact, which should be enough to keep pitchers honest despite not having crazy power. Its the high OBP guys in the minors that lack a punch with the bat that I often worry about. Why would a pitcher be afraid to throw to them?
James (Los Angeles): Regarding the Bo Jackson answer, was there even a player good enough to be the "perfect world" comp for Jackson's tools profile? Mays? Mantle?
Jason Parks: I can't speak to those players because, 1) I never saw them live, and 2) Different era/different athletic context. But as far as pure athletic gifts are concerns, its tough to put anybody over Bo Jackson, regardless of era or sport.
Frank (Texas): Who has the higher ceiling: Vogelbach or Ronald Guzman?
Jason Parks: Guzzie
Rob (Texas): Verducci has an article up now on SI arguing that the "outbreak" of TJ surgeries is due at least in part to increased velocity throughout all levels of baseball beginning in the recent past. To me, the injuries smell like a poor run of luck. I'm actually more interested how he talks about wide-spread increased velocity like it's a known fact. Is it?
Jason Parks: It's obviously a complicated issue, and the specifics of the TJ stuff is above my pay grade, which is why I'm not writing generic articles about it. I think there is something to the increased velocity, and let's not pretend that kids aren't bigger and stronger at earlier ages, throwing in more max effort scenarios in more competitive environments than ever before. Perhaps all of these things play a role, in addition to hard breaking balls or pitch counts or whatever else could cause it. But it seems rather funny to throw an object downhill from an elevated platform as hard as possible without injuries occurring, so I'm never THAT shocked when a pitcher gets injured.
Piz (Pittsburgh): Is La Stella in the Cecchini category then?
Jason Parks: La Stella just hits. Not sure what he will be, but he can swing the bat and make hard contact. Those guys carve out careers, regardless of where they find a home on the diamond or other weaknesses.
Silverback38 (VA): Jason,
I just want to thank you for the extensively long chat today. It's always great to see someone who loves what they do and supports our prospects addiction.
Jason Parks: I'm the one that needs to be thanking you guys. The response has been insane. Over 500 questions in the queue, which is approaching my personal chat record that previously took over 6 hours to reach. I really appreciate it. (even if I can't answer that many)
Frank (Denver): What are your thoughts on the notion that all pitchers are ticking time bombs and therefore more should be brought up sooner rather than later to get what they can provide before their health gives way?
Jason Parks: I think all personnel decisions need to be player specific, and that a pitcher/player will show you when he's ready to handle the challenges of the major league level.
JJ (MPLS): Do Crick's control problems at AA worry you?
Jason Parks: His control has always worried me--at least as it pertains to his ability to develop into a viable starter at the highest level.
Steve (Nakatomi Plaza): Here is the passage that darkwarriorblake removed from Wikipedia's Die Hard plot:
After being called a common thief, Gruber remarks that he is an exceptional thief. But even an exceptional thief would get thrown out at second by Jorge Alfaro.
If only people asked you more fantasy questions!
Jason Parks: I love my job
Ned (cubicle): Who has a higher ceiling, C. Frazier or Tapia?
Jason Parks: This is a great question because it puts two high ceiling/higher risk types against each other, both with some questions about the overall profile and long-term projection. I'm going with Tapia because I believe he can stick in CF as he continues to mature physically, and I'm not sold on Frazier at the position. I think Frazier is slightly ahead in the present, and could end up actualizing before Tapia puts it together. But I'm very high on Tapia--as you know--and I think his tool-based ceiling is a bit higher. Good question.
Jim (Portland): As incredible as Bo Jackson's tools were, why do you think he didn't reach his ceiling? Are injuries solely to blame or did he not make the necessary adjustments?
Jason Parks: Didn't focus on one sport early in the process; had approach/contact issues with the bat. If Bo focused on baseball in high school, signed out of high school, and entered a pro development system at that age, he's in the baseball HOF right now. Same with football. Think about that for a second. Wow.
Steve (Nakatomi Plaza): I re-did it. Go check before that jerk deletes it again. Follow up: Which minor league prospect is most likely to correct plot summaries to movies on wikipedia?
Jason Parks: Brilliant. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_Hard
Goldeye99 (Winnipeg): Thanks for the extra long chat today (don't tell anyone I'm at work!). It would have been interesting to see what a healthy Bo Jackson AND a healthy Eric Davis could have done with full careers.
Jason Parks: Davis is another player that gets forgotten. That's a no shit HOF and generational legend if he stayed healthy. Excellent call.
Dave from Pittsburgh (Boston): I thought you got a divorce? When did you get remarried or did you just not get divorced?
Jason Parks: I did get a divorce. Shit happens. It wasn't a good fit. But I met a very special person a year ago and it changed my life. It's like the Indians getting Lindor in the 2011 draft. You just have to be smart enough to accept something beautiful when it falls in your lap.
Ryan (Cincy): If you were a GM, what would your draft strategy be? Always best available? High risk, high reward? College arms? Focus on 1 tool? A mix of everything?
Jason Parks: Not always best available, although that would likely be my philosophy in the first round. After that, I would listen to my scouts and draft the best talent that fit our organizational plan. I wouldn't be scared of risk, but I also wouldn't be immature about it and I would trust the process the org had in place, which would mean a heavy focus on information, not just scouting.
James (Butte): Hearing anything positive about Austin Wilson so far? The early numbers look good, but he's pretty old for Low-A ball. What are people's eyes seeing?
Jason Parks: I wasn't impressed early on, but will reserve judgment until I either see him again or get an updated report.
Francisco Lindor (Cleveland): You left me for someone else?
And when your now-wife was scouting you, was she most impressed by your #rig, your #sparkle, or your #want?
Jason Parks: This is no joke: When I first met her I was wearing a shirt with Puyol's face on it. No joke. That happened. When a relationship starts like that, it always ends in marriage. I call her my wife, but we aren't actually married yet. Getting married on the 25th of this month. Lindor will be invited. He can give me away.
oscarbluth (Madison, WI): What are the advantages and disadvantages to Tapia's wide stance? Do you think he would be better off losing it?
Jason Parks: It doesn't bother me; it works for him. He stays balanced, shows bat speed and bat control. That's all I care about.
Bill (Bozeman): Prof, how do you quantify or objectively evaluate pitch recognition?
Jason Parks: I just watch how they react to velocity and spin. It requires a larger sample of course, but if you watch enough, especially in the right conditions (plus velo/spin/sequence) you can start to tell which hitters struggle with it more than others.
Silverback38 (VA): I know you're a professional and you would do the right thing…..but if you worked for a major league club, how difficult would it be to curb your insatiable lust of Dominican Republic players?
Jason Parks: We all have preferences, subjective or otherwise, and I wouldn't curb my love of high ceiling players. I would try to be smart about it, but I'll always be a ceilings junkie.
Peter (Jacksonville ): Wow you are in love with tapia. Bunch of scouts have wrote about him having no arm and slow first steps and will be slower when he matures and you profiling him as cf?
Jason Parks: His arm was at least average and possible a plus tool at the end of the day. I saw him make several long, accurate throws during workouts and in game action. He's also not slow and I thought his reads/routes in CF would be fine with more repetition. This is a really thin kid, so added weight [read: strength] is likely going to help with his speed, not hurt it.
Nate (Fort Worth): But what about Crick's control problems as they pertain to he being in the bullpen? Would that help?
Jason Parks: It would help minimize some of the impact, but at the same time, you still need to be able to make your pitches in a bullpen. You just don;t have to sequence or pace yourself as much because you aren't cycling through an order numerous times.
Dave from Pittsburgh (Boston): I'm happy for you man, I've loved your stuff for a long time, loved Up and In and I love Fringe Average. I hope I can eventually attend a BP event and tell you that to your face. Hopefully it won't be that awkward.
Jason Parks: It might be, but I welcome it anyway. Many thanks. Appreciated.
Steve (Philly): What compels someone to get married on the Sunday of Memorial Day weekend? Is it a destination wedding or did you just want to thin out the guest list a bit?
Jason Parks: Very small gathering in a very small setting. The holiday weekend will not play a role.
Rick (Colorado): Tapia - top 25 prospect in your midseason rankings?
Jason Parks: Doubtful, but haven't started working on that stuff yet
Frank (Canton): Who has the best #culo in the Minors?
Jason Parks: BJ Boyd would be in the running.
Jon (TX): What is Luis Sardinas ceiling right now, and would he be better off getting full playing time in AA right now?
Jason Parks: He would, but getting a taste of the majors won't kill him--developmentally speaking. Its good to see what it is you are working so hard for.
James Kolek (Texas): Did you think you were underrated on Tyler Kolek? Kolek has higher ceiling than Stewart and Harvey, he is an ace in the future.
Jason Parks: I haven't ranked Kolek, so its hard to underrate him. I've seen him several times, and he's a big-bodied Texan that can throw 100. I don't love the secondary stuff at present, but its hard to really complain about Kolek's raw stuff. He will likely be a top 3 pick in this draft. How is that for underrating him? Or was this just a blanket comment towards anybody that doesn't think he's a 1:1 reality and the next Nolan Ryan?
Jimmy (MN): A common word brought up with all these TJ injuries is fatigue. To me, fatigue is a matter of conditioning. Do you think anyone will have the cajones to condition their pitchers (slow and gradual) into being able to throw 130+ pitches in an outing, that way they aren't "fatigued" at 100?
Jason Parks: I like your thinking
Chris (Phoenix): Matt Olson is walking about as much as he is striking out. The power is there but the average has been lackluster. I haven't looked at BABIP but I would imagine he's getting a little unlucky. Am I being too optimistic with his current profile?
Jason Parks: Hitting is what impresses me at the A ball level, not watching pitches and raking up walk totals.
Johnny (NY): By when will your man crush Mondesi be in the top 10 prospect rankings?
Jason Parks: Not sure. Maybe in 2015. He could be on his way, but he has a long way to go and they class of prospects right now is thick.
Ryan (Cincy): Think this is the year Jesse Winker starts getting some more attention? He continues to hit, power seems to be developing and his approach looks above average. Not a star, but could be productive for awhile.
Jason Parks: I'll probably continue to underrate him and he will end up being a much better major league player than he was a minor league prospect, at least in terms of ranking and national attention. Its just not the sexiest profile, and I'm still not sold he brings corner power to the table at the major league level.
Dan (Mpls): Jose Fernandez is done for the year and the Twins farm system has been fucked by injuries. Please, give me hope for the future, Prof. Tell me something good about anything.
Jason Parks: This chat contained 660 questions and I'm moved by that. I'm also going to go hang out with Jorge Arangure tonight and eat a #burg.
Jason Parks: I love you guys. Your #want is unmatched. You set the record for questions asked. Amazing. Let's do this again soon.