Nick wraps up the draft and talks prospects.
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Hi all! Thanks for all your questions already in the queue! Today we put the 2013 draft to bed and also look ahead to the Futures Game and second half of the season. Let's get started!
steve (NY, NY): Which of the 2013 rule IV picks would make the BP top 50? Appel, Gray, Braynt... anyone else?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Jason Parks' updated midseason top 50 posted at the end of June here -- http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21024 -- and included Appel and Gray (with a note that Bryant would have made the list, as well, had he signed at the time the list was published. If there was a Faleris list publishing today, it would potentially include Gray, Appel and potentially Frazier, Bryant (in that order). All should be comfortably in the Top 101 discussion this offseason, provided no injuries or setbacks during the remainder of the season and fall instructs/AFL.
john s (nyc): Can you explain your comment in a previous 10 pack that Ynoa's "upside is that of a mid-rotation or late-inning arm."
That seems rather conservative. Given his stature and fastball in the mid-90s, I would think that, even if the chances were slim of getting there, his upside would still be that of a top of a rotation guy. So, is there something you're seeing now which you think makes his ceiling that of a mid-rotation guy?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Sure. While the fastball can reach the mid-90s, it is more often in the low-90s, touching the mid-90s, and he is still having his innings-per-start limited. We need to see further growth in stuff (bump in grade), improved consistency in execution, durability, improved command, and a better third offering to start talking "better than mid-rotation" projections, and that's a lot that still needs to go right. Good news is that he's healthy and throwing well this year, which is an important first step.
Mac (NOVA): Who do you think will be the first all star selection from this draft class?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Pretty cool question -- taking into account opportunity, upside, and other options from their drafting team, I think you have to give Appel the nod. He could be the best arm on the club by next summer. Bryant could get the nod, as well, due to the fact that he could show up and hit a bunch of HRs, even if the rest of the offensive game is choppy.
cal Guy (cali): On a 1-10 scale, rate the chances that Correa, Bogaerts and Russell stay at SS in the big leagues for at least 5 years.
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: All should start as shortstops, and all have a decent shot to stick there for a while. Note, I'm assuming they aren't forced off the position due to better options already in the system: Correa (7), Boegarts (7), Russell (8).
CC (ABQ): How would you rank the top players from the last two draft classes? How does 2014 compare?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Looking quickly at the top of my board on draft day this June and last, I quickly come out this way:
1 Gausman (2012)
2 Almora (2012)
3 Correa (2012)
4 Buxton (2012)
5 Gray (2013)
6 Appel (2013)
7 Giolito (2012)
8 Frazier (2013)
9 Stewart (2013)
10 Zimmer (2012)
11 Shipley (2013)
12 Ball (2013)
13 Bryant (2013)
14 D Smith (2013)
15 Reese McGuire (2013)
Free_AEC (South Jersey): Did Joey Martarano sign with the Phillies?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I do not believe so -- that budget was pretty well tapped.
Jim Callis (Chicago): Did you think that George Springer is the best power and speed combination prospect?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I guess that ultimately depends on how playable that power ends up at the top level. Buxton may the best bet. Clint Frazier is a darkhorse, but will face utility questions, as well, until we see how the high effort swing plays against more advanced arms.
maicunni (Toledo): Which one of the positional players is the most major league ready? #chisox
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Probably DJ Peterson (1b/dh, Mariners). Most advanced hit tool in the class and low defensive threshold at his natural position.
laynef (Oregon): Kris Bryant or Clint Frazier: Highest career WARP? Does Frazier stick in CF?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Safe bet is Bryant, simply because he'll get there much quicker, but give me Frazier. I'm a believer. He has the tools to stick in center, but if the bat clicks early he could get shifted to a corner quickly so that the offensive development isn't stalled waiting for the routes/reads to develop.
Cal Guy (Cali): Where do you think Correa would have been picked if he were eligible in the 2013 draft?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Assuming Appel is the 2013 version, and we aren't transposing any other 2012 draftees, I think Appel still goes #1 (with limited overslot targets fitting the Astros' profile this year for 2nd Rd). I think the Cubs still pop Bryant and Gray and Stewart are both highly tempting for Colorado/Minnesota. Somewhere in the 3-6 range would make sense.
Peter (Toronto): Thanks for the chat. Was Bickford really the right pick at 10 or do we believe the conspiracy theory of 2 2014 1st round picks?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I haven't heard a conspiracy theory along those lines, and don't think it makes much sense to tank a pick to try and gain an extra pick a year later. That said, anyone who claims a team can't be better off with the pick the following year, as opposed to the present, isn't fully engaged with the intricacies of the draft. This is actually a situation where a team in the Blue Jays position could easily come out ahead -- sounds like an article idea...to be continued...
GrinnellSteve (Iowa): Matt Dermody was drafted 4 times. How unusual is that? He was set to sign last year with Arizona until a medical issue cropped up. He's in the Blue Jays' system now. What are his prospects for one day sniffing a major league roster?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Unusual with a 4year college guy -- requires sophomore eligibility or a redshirt. You see it at the JuCo level with the kids that continually view themselves as early round picks despite continually being selected much lower.
Dan (The Beach): Will you be releasing a 2014 draft ranking any time soon?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: No -- I just now started preliminary tiering and have a whopping five guys I feel comfortable putting to the dry erase board. Our partners over at Perfect Game are a good resource for early high school rankings since they get to see so much of the underclass through their various tournaments and showcases. This is a very good class, though, and I am more than comfortable stating we're likely to be discussing a LOT of high end talent at this time next year. I may put together some tiering as part of the next "Shadow Draft" series, which we'll start much earlier this year. But that won't come until after Jupiter in October.
Chris Mellen (Boston): Nick, which pitcher has the highest upside in this draft class? Also, did you think Trey Ball is #1 in the future?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Kohl Stewart, but he is highly unlikely to be a quick mover. Ball is a #2 upside, #3 profile for me, but has the combination of body/athleticism that you mark as having the potential to outgrow his projections. Really nice prospect.
Dan (The Beach): You tweeted last night that Fried flashed top of the rotation stuff. His stat line sure doesn't look like it. Details?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Uneven defense behind him and some soft hits that fell in. It was an ugly line, and he wasn't at his most surgical, but he worked the fastball east/west, and particularly well to the inside against righties, and the curve was very good. He's tipping both his secondaries right now, but I'm not convinced Wisconsin was picking up on it. Just one of those nights where the line didn't match the stuff.
Nate (Office): Hi Nick,
Just a question regarding college vs professional ball. I see that a couple big names signed this week, Kris Bryant and Colin Moran. My question is hitter specific. Both of these players played college ball and I think that I heard Bryant is going into low class A or rookie league to start his career. Is college baseball comprable to rookie league or do they start at a low level to shake off the rust of not playing for such a long time? I assume that a polished college hitter should be able to move up the ranks quickly and maybe start at a higher level. Just curious of your thoughts on the subject. Thanks for the chat!
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Thanks for the question! For the most part, the top college talents should be able to step into High-A and perform, but you hit the nail on the head with regards to working back into playing shape after layoffs. There are also team-specific issues relating to projected arrival times, but those generally shouldn't come into play until the first full year of pro ball.
john s (NY, NY): On Ynoa, I think the thing which is confusing me is the use of the term "upside". To me, that says that his ceiling is that of a mid-rotation guy. However, your answer seems to indicate that if he sorts some things out he could be more than a mid-rotation guy. If that's the case, can you really say his ceiling/upside right now is mid-rotation? Am I misinterpreting the use of "upside"?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: An excellent question, and a distinction that should be revisited periodically. As an evaluator I always take the term "upside" to mean "reasonable upside", which takes into account the hurdles the prospect is facing. I tangentially touched on this concept with the Trey Ball answer. I'd generally address your concerns as I did with Ball if the profile is one in which I think the finished product could outdistance my current idea of the player's reasonable upside. Hope that clears it up some, but feel free to ask further, or email/twitter to discuss further. Thanks for the great question(s).
Theo (Chicago): Because of his contract, does Soler have a chance to contribute for the Cubs in 2014? What kind of career do you expect?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I guess it's possible he progresses quickly and sees some time in Chicago next year, but the Cubs aren't really incentivized to move him that quickly. As is, it looks like 2015 could see the arrival of Bryant, Almora, Soler and Baez if everyone continues as projected -- that's a pretty intimidating group, huh?
mbarr4 (Dallas): What do you think of Hunter Dozier and the Royals draft day strategy?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I thought the strategy was excellent based on the picks available and provided they had one or two additional "overslot" targets circled in case Manea came off the board in the 1st Round. I respectfully disagree as to this strategy being a good one for this particular draft class, but that's a friendly disagreement as to player evaluation and not strategy. If they liked Manaea and one or two others as worthy targets for the money, they picked a fine spot to implement this move.
Mac (NOVA): Who on the BP midseason top prospect list do you think makes the biggest jump when the professor does the updated top 100 in the offseason?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Off the top of my head, Frazier (who missed the list), Mondesi, Urias. My dark horse for completely off most fans' radar but in 101 talks this winter, I think Terry McClure (of, Rockies) is going to have a lot of positive reports submitted between today and the end of fall instructs.
GrinnellSteve (Iowa): Does Tim Anderson have the chops to stay at short? He's been an error mill so far. Does he head to center if he can't stick at short? Will his bat play well enough at another position that Sox fans will look back on this pick as a big success?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: He has the athleticism to do it -- we'll know quickly whether his issues are more feel- or rep-based. I liked his profile more as a center field fit, and the bat fits well up-the-middle, regardless of ultimate spot.
jlogandjr (DC): In your ranking of '13 and '12 draft picks (the fifth answered question), where would Carlos Rodon rank?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Up there with Gausman, but Rodon is a little slider heavy for my taste up top (picking nits).
Jason Parks (Brooklyn): Nick, have you ever seen Travis Harrison this season? If yes, can you talk about your thoughts?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I have. Long evaluative history with Harrison, and it's been a roller coaster. Looks to be in better shape right now and has at least a chance to stick at third (whereas last year I would have said he was almost certainly limited to first). Getting out in front too often, and swing-and-miss looks like a long term trade-off for the leverage, but I like what I see right now.
Mark (Walcott, IA): Someone from BA said Bryant would be rated higher than Braun if both were coming out of the draft this year. Does Bryant have that kind of power and hit tool, and does he come up in 2014?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I can't speak for the individual who said that, but if I had to guess I would say we are ultimately talking about a situation where the "ceiling" was surpassed. Braun was an uneven defender that didn't project particularly well anywhere, and the power didn't project as well as Bryant's true plus-plus raw. Additionally, Braun has a lot going on in his swing, though I'd argue it's often better to bet on the bat speed with some quirks (Braun) than the leverage with length (Bryant).
Josh G (Sacramento, CA): How much does the Giants signing Johneshwy Fargas, Jonah Arenado, and John Riley improve their class?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Good picks, but circle Christian Jones (lhp, Oregon). Could be an absolute steal!
Cal Guy (Cali): If you could choose just one for their careers, would it be Correa or Russell?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Close call. I guess give me Russell due to the athleticism. Really six of one, half dozen of the other. Both could be top 10 prospects next year.
Have to step away for two minutes but lots of good questions still in the queue and I'll stick around as long as you guys want.
scottiedawg (Seattle): If you have two players, one who will produce 15.5 WAR in 6 team controlled year, but only a 15% chance to reach that level, and another who will produce 3 WAR in 6 team controlled years, with a 75% chance of reaching that level. Obviously I picked numbers so that the expected WARs are basically equal (2.325...2.25).
All things equal (position, team's spot on marginal win curve, etc), would a team rather draft Player A or Player B?
All things equal, would a team rather draft 5 Player As or 5 Player Bs?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: This is another draft strategy question that really deserves a full article. The obvious answer is a mixture of the two, but if you have to pick one it has to be Player A. If you're drafting, you are talking about multiple years before you start realizing profits on your investment. To dig deeper, there are further advantages -- the higher upside guys will generally nab you more in trade, and you'll have institutional knowledge dealing with the players day-in and day-out to help you get the better of those trades.
Cal Guy (Cali): Rendon is showing a bit of pop lately... how many HR do you expect from him at his peak?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I think he's a 5+ power guy that can hit 22-26 home runs regularly. I like power that's steeped in bat speed, as opposed to brute strength, and that's Rendon.
Adam (Toronto): Right now reports are that Bickford isn't going to sign. Disaster for Blue Jays or huge disaster?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Touched on this a bit earlier, but seeing as Brentz signed, it will likely work out fine for Toronto. Bickford is a really nice arm, but Toronto will have a shot at a comparable or better arm next year and potentially one with a shorter developmental horizon. Again, I'll hit on this more fully in an article.
GrinnellSteve (Iowa ): Jacob May: Great pick? Or best pick ever?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Are those my only choices? How about fun player to watch that will probably need to prove himself at each level along the way to start making prospect list impact?
Titus (Wisconsin): How'd the Brewers do considering no first rounder? Is the system improving?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: They got a first round caliber player in Devin Williams, who was one of my favorite arms in the draft class. There's also some upside in picks like Uhen and Hllis. The system on the whole has seen its share of successes and set backs -- right now two of my favorite prospects are both Low-A Brewers kids -- Orlando Arcia and Tyrone Taylor. Taylor in particular should get a really nice bump in prospect land as everyone's new lists start to roll out.
Alex (Korova Milk Bar): Who were the best bargains and worst overpaid this draft? Manaea could be both, right right?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Comes down to evaluative preference in a lot of cases, so I'm usually wary of passing judgment on particular selections by teams. Noting this is based on my own preferences, I think Terry McClure (of, Rockies), Devin Williams (rhp, Brewers), Jon Denney (c, Red Sox), Christian Jones (lhp, Giants), Andrew Mitchell (rhp, White Sox), Chris Rivera (mif, Cardinals), Dustin Driver (rhp, Athletics), and Josh Uhen (rhp, Brewers) were really nice gets. Cole Wiper (rhp, Rangers) wasn't a discount, but I really like the aggressiveness in getting him seigned, as well. I personally did not like the risk/cost/reward combination for Manaea.
Chris P (Boston): Tell me the Red Sox made the most of the early draft picks!
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: They had a really nice draft, and I want to write on them more since it seems like I arrived at some similar conclusions as to draft strategy for this particular class. I know Ryan Boldt had a set number and a strong comfort level with Nebraska, but the Sox did an excellent job of putting themselves in a position to make a competitive run in case he changed his mind. Boldt was one of my favorites in the class, so I really hope the college route works out well for him. As a midwest-based evaluator, I am looking forward to seeing him in Big 10 action.
Ron (Washington, D.C.): Thanks for chatting, Nick.
As an A's fan, I'm happily shocked that they were able to sign their top 15 picks. Would have loved to see them land Iolana Akau, the Hawaiian catcher, but I don't think anyone expected the A's to sign all four of Dillon Overton, Chris Kohler, Bobby Wahl and Dustin Driver.
Are you surprised they all signed? With all of them in the fold, do you think the A's draft cracked the top 10?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Good news, Akau actually was signed! And I agree, the Athletics did a really impressive job. They earned additional flexibility due to Overton's underslot signing (though that comes with the price of Tommy John surgery). Lots of upside arms, a really nice bat in first rounder McKinney, and I liked grabbing Edwin Diaz in the early teens. Pinder/Healy is a solid corner infield tandem early on, as well. In a hit-and-miss class, Oakland seemed to pack in a whole lot of highly interesting acquisitions. That's a great accomplishment.
Steve (Lafayette): Trevor Clifton was signed by the Cubs today. He seems to be their main overslot guy (from what little information I've read). What kind of upside does he have? Also, (if you have time): Paul Blackburn, small sample size, good results. You like him?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Clifton is a fun arm, but doesn't fit my preferred profile (while he should get stronger, I don't know that his frame is one that projects to physicality -- more wiry strength). That's not to say he can't start long term, but it isn't the profile I generally look for. Nice arm and chance for a really nice fastball/curveball combo. Blackburn is a nice arm to have in the system, and he's showing well this year. We'll get a better idea as to his ultimate profile once he tackles full season ball, but you have to be encouraged by his ability to handle a good number of college bats as a 19 year old. Really bright future for the Cubs; great job by their front office and evaluators over the past couple seasons.
Byron (Taiwan): Thanks for the chat, Nick. Do you think Stephen Gonsalves will be a nice steal pick for Twins?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I think he got more money than his profile deserved, so I wouldn't label his signing a steal. That said, he's an arm that looked like a potential Day 1 talent during the summer scouting circuit, so even with the uneven spring it's nice to bring in the talent as a 4th rounder. I will say that, at least with respect to the evaluators I spoke with about Gonsalves, he's a highly divisive profile. More my money, I would have let him go to school. But the Twins weren't alone in thinking he was work some jingle -- especially in this class.
GrinnellSteve (Iowa): How often does it end up being a bad idea to forego a boatload of money and head to college or return to college? I know it works out financially in some cases, but as a risk/reward thing I can't imagine it's generally a good plan for a player. A lot of bad things can happen in a year's time. Plus, it seems like if you have pro legitimate aspirations, you'd want to bank the money and get the professional instruction going. Your thoughts?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I'm actually working on a series of pieces that explores a number of issues that high school draftees face, including this particular question. Of course, a lot of this comes down to what you define as "boatload". Generally, it's a good idea to take seven figures if you're being offered seven figures, but once you get past the first 50 picks or so, the water gets murky. A lot depends on what you are looking to get out of a college experience, what your profile suggests with regards to probability (likelihood you have a major league career), the program you are considering at the collegiate level, and believe it or not your aspirations once you're done playing ball (whether that's five or fifteen years from draft day).
Again, it's tough to give a satisfactory answer in a chat format, but the quick and dirty is that you have to consider the likelihood you'll improve your takeaway by the time you're eligible again, hedging with the other benefits that come with college ball on a player-to-player basis. Shoot me an email (nfaleris (at) baseballprospectus (dot) com and remind me about this question and put together a blog post at BP Unfiltered to explore this a little more. Thanks!
BobcatBaseball (Athens, OH): Weren't as many college seniors this year as opposed to 2012, why do you think that is?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Simple -- there were fewer high school kids worth significant overslot money, negating the need to save in the back half of the top ten rounds. I mean, I guess you'd have to go through each scouting director and ask their personal reasoning. But I feel pretty darn comfortable that my read on the class is probably one shared by a lot of the decision makers in the game.
Reed (Florida): Out of Correia, Lindor, and Baez who has the best potential, best bat, and best fielding?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Lindor is the best overall talent -- the glove is special and the hit tool has the potential to play to plus, as well. Correa is a nice offensive profile with enough feel for the position unless his body gets in the way later on. Baez isn't a shortstop for me. I know the physical capabilities, but his style fits better at third and I still think the profile slips off of the six spot sooner rather than later.
Esteban (Indiana): How prospecty is Junior Lake? Does he get a cup of coffee this year and what is his most likely role?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Can contribute, and isn't the type of prospect you worry about starting the clock on. So, the Cubs could give him time with the big club in 2013. 4th OF for me, but there are evaluators that really like him as a potential everyday guy.
bruno7481 (Indiana): Almora over Buxton huh?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Yeah, that was my draft day evaluation, which is what I took the question to be covering. I argued strongly for Buxton as the top prospect in the Twins system when we were discussing the rankings last winter, and he was a top five guy for me at the time of the draft last year. So I liked him. Almora got the nod for me as a no doubt center fielder that would provide above-average defense and a hit tool that I thought was a safe bet to be above-average, as well. As a full profile, I liked Almora better. Buxton exploded this year and Almora has been very good. Could be Buxton ends up being the far superior player, and I'm more than good with that. I am trying to put together systemic decisions that, in the long run, win out. That said, I'd be crazy if I wasn't going back over everything I had on Buxton from my looks in order to figure out if this is a case of "sometimes it just clicks" or "I missed something".
Tyler (Evansville): Why don't the Red Sox let Trey Ball go two ways in the lower minors? He was supposedly good enough to be a top 10 pick as a hitter or as a pitcher
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: They probably could let him swing it a little during instructs, and of course nothing says they don't let him go both ways. But Trey was open to doing whatever his drafting team thought was best, so if Boston likes him on the bump why divide his attention? This isn't a situation where the org needs to work with strong player feelings -- Ball is on board.
@hopjake (Kc): Hate the new cba since the final day isn't as drama filled. You concur?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I don't like drama for this stuff. I think a lot of this is pretty black and white, as far as player value, leverage, and reasonable ranges for bonuses. Don't get me wrong -- I'm an attorney; I love negotiating. But that negotiating window should be fairly well defined for most of these players in the top ten rounds.
Cal Guy (Cali): Please rank the following for career fantasy value, Myers, Taveras and Polanco. Thanks!
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I only half pay attention to the two leagues I play in, and seldom perform well. You still want me to answer?
Okay, I'd go Taveras, Polanco, Myers.
Cal Guy (Cali): Please rank the following for career fantasy value, Myers, Taveras and Polanco. Thanks!
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I only half pay attention to the two leagues I play in, and seldom perform well. You still want me to answer?
Okay, I'd go Taveras, Polanco, Myers.
Jordan (LA): How odd was it for Paco Rodriguez to spend very little time in the minors before being called up to the majors? Do you see that happening to any other players in the future?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Paco was essentially fully baked. His game is rotating through fastball/cutter/slider while throwing in some gimicky deception. Not a whole lot to "work on". Generally, that's rare, and I'd go so far as to say it's almost exlusively limited to relievers with small scope profiles.
Reed (Florida): Why do you think about Almora? Highest floor from the 2012 draft besides Buxton?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Amongst high school kids or everyone? Actually, might be the same answer. Pre-draft, Almora was clearly the higher floor. Today, I think Buxton has shown enough that his athletic advantage bridges the refinement gap. I'd still have Almora second, yes, as far as HS position players.
Bill (New Mexico): Between call-ups and the draft, any guesses at how the team system rankings would look if redone today? St. Louis would obviously not be #1 any more because of all their pitching graduations, but how far do they drop, and who's #1 now?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I'd imagine the Twins are at the top. Cardinals probably still top five, along with the Cubs, Rangers, Astros? Obviously would take a longer look, but off feel that sounds about right. I think the Cardinals were one of the best draft classes, for what it's worth, considering draft position and opporutnities.
Cal Guy (Cal): How would you rank the first picks of the last 3 drafts?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: At the time of the draft: Cole, Correa, Appel.
Today: Cole, Correa, Appel
john s (NYC): Which of this years draft class could you see playing in the majors this time next year?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Complicated due to the fact that a number of teams are incentivized not to push players (since they aren't likely to compete in 2014). Marco Gonzalez is much better than most fans realize, but the Cardinals are stacked in the rotation. Appel is pretty far along the developmental curve, but the Astros don't have a particular need to rush him. Bryant could have a longer adjustment period than expected due to mechanical issues. The Mariners already have a number of corner infielders ahead of Peterson and no real need to push him. I guess Appel is the most likely. The Tigers could push some of their college arms -- Knebel, Crawford, Thompson, Zimoek, Kubitza, etc., depending on if the org is willing to move some to the pen.
Mitch (STL): Does Jake Brentz have Carlos Rodon upside?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Breaking ball too far behind "now" Brentz profile to make a real comparison. Also, Rodon is a big, strong, beast of a pitcher -- Brentz has some presence, but physically has some work to do to catch up to Carlos. If the Jays get any starter production out of Brentz, it's a huge developmental victory. Barring injury Rodon is likely to get over $3 million dollars, and will be a disappointment if he's anything less than a mid-rotation arm.
Reed (Florida): Do you think the Cubs have the second best prospects behind the Twins. With Almora, Baez, and Soler all being top 25 and Bryant now. Also would you rank Bryant in the top 50?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I think there is a strong argument for it, but how each team's high school draftees respond to pro instruction this fall is a huge piece of the puzzle for me. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a better top 4 as far as positional prospects.
Bryant is a fringe top 50 guy for me right now.
@hopjake (Kc): Do you think we will have a world draft within 5 yrs?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: In some form, yeah. A lot to work through to get it to work, though.
Cal Guy (Cali): Cole has been impressive in that he seems to have a good grasp of "pitching" rather than just throwing hard, but do you see him taking a step forward and actually dominating as his stuff suggests he is capable?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Yes. I think it will come incrementally, but when an evaluator breaks out the notepad and sketches a picture of a future number 1, it looks like Cole. (Gerrit, not AJ).
Benjammin (NY): Thoughts on the Mets draft? Lots of people saying King was a steal.
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I had King as a third or fourth rounder, so he's borderline for me if we are talking "steals". I thought the Mets had a nice balance to the draft class, with Smith being a strong first round selection in particular.
R.A. Wagman (Toronto): Nick - before the server shuts this bad boy down, how much do the signings of Tellez and Brentz mitigate the failure to ink Bickford? Any idea behind the real reason for his not signing?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I touched on this a bit earlier, RA -- completely agree. I guess I'd rephrase in that losing Bickford in and of itself was not a tragedy. Not being ableto sign Brentz, considering the money available, would have been problematic for me. That number should have been well known on draft day if you're spending an 11th round pick on him. I'm not heavy on Tellez, but Toronto had the money and you can't deny there is raw power in the bat. Looking forward to getting al ook at him again when he comes through Lansing.
Brady Childs (On the couch with his dear mother): What's your reaction to the spectacular debut of Jarred Cosart? Can we get used to this? And by this, I mean 8 innings of 2 hit ball, of course.
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: I only see a stat line, since I didn't get a chance to watch the game (will check it out on MLB.TV later tonight). I mentioned in today's Call-up Piece at BP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21183) that the lively fastball and ability to induce grounders will help mitigate the issues he'll face with walks and imprecise command. Long term, he needs to spot the ball and miss bats. If he doesn't, the bullpen is still the likely landing spot. Love seeing successful debuts, though, and am very happy Cosart has a great night to look back on for the rest of his life. Really a special occasion for a major leaguer -- I always pull for the debuting player to have a special night.
@hopjake (Kc): Sounds like 2014 HS RHP is a lot better any guy you really like? Anyone better than Stewart ?
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Still way too early to start comparing the 2014 arms to 2013 -- we're still figuring out how these kids handle heavier loads, and much of the showcase circuit is very short stints. THere are a LOT of great arms for 2014 from what we can tell so far. Whether or not they ultimately grade out as on par with or better than Stewart is still to be seen. Let's revisit again in October/November? Email/tweet me to remind me to put out a list of arms to watch and I will -- clocks about to strike server-switch!
Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day: Sorry the chat cut off with the server maintenance last night. Thanks for all the great questions; let's do it again soon!