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Chat: Paul Sporer

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday May 07, 2013 1:00 PM ET chat session with Paul Sporer.

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Paul Sporer indulges your wildest fantasy questions.

Paul Sporer: Welcome everybody! We'll get started here in a few minutes, but feel free to start putting your questions into the queue. How about my boy Allen Craig hitting .355/.375/.516 the last two weeks w/16 RBI, 9 R, and his first homer!!

Larry (NY): I'm in a 14 team 5x5 league and have to make some decisions about starting pitchers towards the bottom of my roster. What do you think of Straily, Vargas, Liriano, Lincecum, Tepesch, and Kendrick and how woudl you rank them?

Paul Sporer: Lincecum still comes out ahead because there is so much likeness in that group that his upside stands out quite a bit. Otherwise I like Kendrick, Vargas, Straily, Lirano (gotta see him first, of course), Tepesch.

Chesty (New Bern NC): Paul,would you rate the following according to these stats.Jay Bruce, V.Wells,T.Hunter,J.Willingham,B.Gardner .I have Dl coming active and need to drop some. the stats are-HR,RBI,AVE,SB,RUNS,XBH.Thanks

Paul Sporer: Wells and Gardner are the first cuts from that group even with Bruce struggling.

CharlieHodge (MetsNation): Would you trade Ryan Howard for Evan Gattis and Adam Eaton?

Paul Sporer: That's tough because Gattis could be squeezed once McCann is 100% back and Heyward returns. Eaton hasn't had AB one yet. I would pass.

ares1800jr (SanAnto): Where do you rank Ozuna($3 bid will prob get him) among these OF? Reimold($1), Arcia($1), reddick($1), in a keeper league.

Paul Sporer: Reddick, Reimold, Arcia, Ozuna

rjblakel (Australia): Howdy - need to cut 1 in a non-keeper points league....how do you rank the following guys? Mark Reynolds Andre Ethier Jayson Werth BJ Upton

Paul Sporer: Reynold, Werth, Upton/Ethier kind of a tie. Ethier is a platoon player and BJ has been terrible thus far. He'll get better.

Rob (New York): 12 team NL, 5x5, both teams competitive in all categories, who gets the better of this trade: Cuddyer and Mujica for Minor and Prado? Suppose Duda is traded instead of Prado?

Paul Sporer: That's pretty fair, but I prefer the Prado/Minor side. I think it takes it a hit flipping Duda in Prado.

Dick Gozinya (Silicon Valley, CA): How good would the Giants of the sixties have been if they had signed Roberto Clemente as they were within minutes of doing before Pirates scouts spirited him aeay?

Paul Sporer: Oh man, that'd have been insane.

Jarrod Parker (Oakland): I know I'm young, but is it possible I'm just not that good? Owners in 12 team leagues everywhere are threatening to cut me.

Paul Sporer: I guess it's possible, but it doesn't make much sense to draw that conclusion at this point. Moving on from him in a 12-teamer is fine for now, especially with short benches, but to give up on him and suggest he isn't good is silly.

Matt Trueblood (Fridley, MN): Writing this Monday afternoon, and as of now, The Mariners have played 33 games, a half-dozen have played 32, most have played 31 or 30, and then there are the White Sox (29), Mets (28), Indians (28), Royals (27) and Twins (27). How much do you value the extra games, the games not yet played, that guys on those last few teams still have in front of them? In other words, taking an otherwise neutral trade (i.e., Matt Wieters (32 games played for the Orioles so far) for Joe Mauer, or something), how much should those games matter?

Paul Sporer: Not much at all. It's five games, probably 3-5% of a catcher's seasons and you have no idea how they'll fare (or if they'll even play those games). It'd have to be 10+ to start mattering.

Spirou (Montreal): Hi Paul.Just traded Brett Anderson and Salty for Samrdzija and a pick in a Scoresheet league .Will I depply regret making that move ?

Paul Sporer: No way. Love Samardzija. Anderson is a walking injury and Salty is just whatever.

Adam (Rochester, NY): Hi Paul, how would you rank Webster, Taillon and Wacha for this year and next, in a 20 team 5 x 5 league?

Paul Sporer: Taillon ...gap... Webster/Wacha

Brian (Tinley Park): Hey Paul - I am in a WHIP, ERA, K, Net Win, and Net Sv league and was wondering who you would want to have right now - J. Fernandez, M. Estrada, or D. Haden? Thanks, Brian

Paul Sporer: Haren, Fernandez, Estrada

Brady Childs (English Class): Paul, you look like a college kid in all your pictures. How old are you?

Paul Sporer: 31

Brian (IL): Would you trade Cargo for the duo of Asdrubal Cabrera and Doug Fister?

Paul Sporer: No. Love both of those players, but you need more for a surefire second rounder, borderline first rounder

conjoinedtwins (Toronto): Which unsuccessful pitchers (so far) have good velocity and peripherals and are good Buy Low candidates? Thanks very much.

Paul Sporer: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20351 - The buy low concept is an antiquated one that isn't as readily available as it used to be. It'll be tough to really get a major discount on struggling studs, but that doesn't mean they aren't worth buying even at market value.

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): Hi Paul Sporer. I have Alex Avila in a super deep 22 team scoresheet league. According to Rod Allen he's now "cheesing like a chess cat", does that increase or decrease his value going forward? Thank you.

Paul Sporer: It puts him *juuuuuuust* behind Posey and well ahead of Carlos Santana, who is apt to cheesing like a checkers cat far too often.

Joseph (Seattle): I just dropped Andrew Bailey for Yuni because Neil Walker is on the DL. I feel like I lost a piece of my soul. Where's the redemption?

Paul Sporer: Drugs.

Peter (Boston): Buy low on David Price? Or stay away? I never would have seen this coming!

Paul Sporer: Buy! Me neither.

vigilantebsball (Seattle): Hisashi Iwakuma... talk amongst yourself.

Paul Sporer: We are, he's here right now eating these grapes from me.

Alex (Anaheim): Is Slowey worth owning for more than short periods in a 12-team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: Who knows how he'll do in the long term, but he should be owned in those formats right now.

Paul (Georgia): How real is Big Erv and what do you expect from him the rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: Real-ish. I like him in the preseason. He has good stuff. It's all about avoiding HRs. My podcast cohost wrote this at RW - http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/showArticle.htm?id=17488

CraigDesign (Atlanta): Kubel or Allen Craig? I think I know the answer.

Paul Sporer: If I could ban people...

Mark Micciche (Secaucus): Paul, how did you get to be so smart and handsome?

Paul Sporer: Tons of luck.

marksborrred (Twitterverse): How did your MLB 13 The Show character do last night, what his is name and what is his pitching repertoire?

Paul Sporer: Paul Sporer and he was ROLLING in Double-A, but then exiting out of an appearance it froze and I bet it corrupted. We'll see later tonight, but I might have to restart. Throws a sick sinker, circle change, and knucklecurve.

Luke (NYC): Just dealt Headley, Fister & Asdrubal for Yu Darvish & Jean Segura. Thoughts? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Hot fire. I believe enough in Segura to make that worthwhile.

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): Are you buying lowish on Bautista, Dickey and BJ Upton or are you running away from them as fast as you can? Or just walking at a leisurely pace?

Paul Sporer: YES, sure, better be REALLY low.

Iodine (Yes): What is love?

Paul Sporer: Love is not asking when prospects are coming up.

Mark (Ky.): Who gets more steals this year: Dee Gordon or Michael Bourn? And who should I play at 2B: Everth Cabrera or Matt Carpenter?

Paul Sporer: Bourn/Carp

mblthd (Columbia, SC): Am I the only one who thinks the ubiquitous rope-necklace thing looks silly?

Paul Sporer: Not at all. You're in the majority I'd say!

Zbigniew (Bala Cynwyd): Whither Eric Hosmer?

Paul Sporer: Oof, it's starting to seem that way. Too early to give up on him long-term, but this year's prospects are dwindling.

Spirou (Montreal): What to do with Jay Bruce now ? Been holding on to him for some time and he has to be the most frustrating player to own.Is it time to trade him while he has good market value ?

Paul Sporer: If you have him in roto, set it & forget it. Too early to move on. This guy is one of those hit 4-5 HRs in a week types.

Fantasy Newbie (NY): I have to make some pitching decisions in a 14 team, non keeper, rotisserie/5x5 league. How would you rank Lincecum, Straily, Tepesch, Vargas, Colon, Kendrick? One of them has to go today and another when Cueto comes off the DL.

Paul Sporer: I think I already answered this or someone had the SAME exact dudes they asked about, so scroll down... or up... whichever shows you previous questions & answers.

Nic (StL): Who makes more starts RoS BAnderson or JJohnson?

Paul Sporer: Can't you just clear the DL spot for someone else?


(JJ)

Hugh Jazz (Backside, LA): Erasmo Ramirez... seemed like your boy, but can't beat out Blake Beaven or Aaron Harang for a rotation spot. Droppable? If hes as hurt as claimed, might he be passed by Hultzen or Walker for the second half

Paul Sporer: Well ya kinda answered the question there. It wasn't that he couldn't beat those guys out, rather that he was hurt. He hasn't pitched yet. Reserve roster AL-only or deep mixed, hang on; otherwise go ahead & move on.

Ryan (Manhattan): I own R.A. Dickey in an 7x6 (Don't ask) 13 tm. roto league. What do I do with him? Think this is injury related, or league switch problems? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Waaaaay too early to consider dropping him or anything. Maybe sell him at a discount if you're ready to get out, but otherwise you have to be patient. This is why I don't like drafting pitching early, though. Especially old pitching. His age wasn't a major concern bc of what he throws, but his body is still old.

Chesty (New Bern N.C.): Paul,best value In this trade Segura or Ian Desmond

Paul Sporer: Pretty close. I'd lean Desmond for track record, but I like both a good bit at a painfully thin SS.

Matt10 (London): Have you finalised the name for your podcast yet? How long till it finds it's way to iTunes?

Paul Sporer: We have. Working on ep 2, it'll be out today. Waiting on iTunes approval. Details at paulsporer.com this afternoon.

MickeyRivers (NJ): Ubaldo has shown some signs of life his last 2 times out. Any chance he becomes ownable in a 12 team mixed league? 7 SO innings vs. KC and 8 Ks vs. OAK.

Paul Sporer: I guess there's a *chance*, but I buy it not one bit. Smoked Det & StL back-to-back last year in both of their yards in early June. Had a 5.72 ERA the rest of the way. Just as awesome pitchers have implosions every once in a while, below average guys have their gems.

Chesty (New Bern,NC): How do you rank the following sp.Ian Kennedy,Josh Johnson,M.Garza,Z.MacCalister. Going forward .W,K,Whip,K/9,Era.Thank you

Paul Sporer: Kennedy (not special, but just solid & healthy hence edge over JJ), JJ, McAllister, and Garza. Garza is just too much of unknown.

cello (boston): jason hammel. worried about the underlying stats? not getting as many groundballs or strikeouts this season

Paul Sporer: No. He keeps getting a little better here & there. Watching him closely, I like what I'm seeing. Wish there was more production, but I'm holding firm with him.

kcasey1029 (Around): How legit is Arenado's power? If he keeps hitting this way is he a top 10 3B?

Paul Sporer: I don't think he's much better than a 13-15 HR guy. If he keeps hitting this way he's a top 2 3B! :) He'll hit a rookie wall like every player does. Will Middlebrooks had a similar first 7 games. He came back down to earth (though was still very good) and now look how he's doing so far this year. And WMB has a decent bit more power.

Chesty (New Bern,NC): Paul,thanks for your help.

Paul Sporer: Any time!

dianagram (VORGville): Which are your favorite "non-traditional" roto categories to have in a league? Holds? Net Saves? Net SB? Other?

Paul Sporer: I love middle relievers bc I'm a nerd so I like holds. The net categories are pretty solid, espec. net SB. I'd say OBP is still pretty non-traditional, though it's gaining ground. I love OBP. In lieu of different categories bc I quite like the std. 5x5 ('cept OBP over AVG), I'd like to play more points leagues with an array of categories counting for things. Preferably not H2H, but I could be swayed there.

PB (OHIO): Is anthony ranuado for real? Is he better that Jesse Biddle long term?

Paul Sporer: Realish in that he's super-talented, but let's see more. I'd still bet on Biddle just bc AR is still a bit behind the curve.

Mark (Ky.): Why do I think the second I drop Will Middlebrooks, he'll figure it out and start mashing line drives over the Monster? Should I keep him around or not.

Paul Sporer: Well because he's already mashing 'em. He has a 186 ISO. You need some 1B and 2B to get that horrendous .195 AVG up. It really depends on league format & who would be replacing him.

G Money (Five Guys): Kendrick and S Perez for C Santana, who wins?

Paul Sporer: Santana side by a lot if that's Kyle Kendrick; dead even if that's Kendrick Lamar.

Britt (Cincinnati): Please tell me Tony Cingrani isn't getting sent down when Cueto comes back.

Paul Sporer: That seems unlikely with the way he's pitching right now, but we'll see if he keeps it up and how Mike Leake does in the interim.

Rogelio (Cambridge): Hold onto Garza in an NL-only, hoping for health this year, or take Cashner now?

Paul Sporer: Take the Cash now.

PMGrenko (Coolsville): Will you be at the Seattle BP event?

Paul Sporer: Maybe. Definitely want to hit a non-Texas event or three and I'd love to get to Safeco.

Damon (Missouri): Bruce/Price/Victorino for Prince/Heyward. Selling to low on Price and Bruce. 10 team mixed league.

Paul Sporer: Much prefer Prince/Heyward!

Carlos Quentin (Petco): You ever play in a league that counts HBP? You should.

Paul Sporer: You gonna charge me if I don't?

DanDaMan (SeaCliff): Paul- thanks for the chat. Wondering about injury updates, always a key part of fantasy. I haven't seen any regular columns this year on the site. Am I missing something? If so, please tell me where to look. Thanks

Paul Sporer: You're welcome. Do you mean injury updates in a regular column from BP?

Pablo Sandoval (SF): Should I come out of the closet and admit that I prefer golf?

Paul Sporer: I assume this refers to your penchant for swinging at crazy pitches? Playing golf in a closet seems terrible.

Paul (Ottawa ): Who are some good Buy Low candidates right now for a very deep AL only league?

Paul Sporer: Smyly before he goes into the rotation. It's super-tough to say because I don't really believe in the notion of buy-low, sell-high. Most fantasy managers are smarter than that these days. Sort by ERA from high to low and start looking at guys with a real track record whose skills still look strong & buy those dudes. Like Price, I'd buy him 100%.

dhale243 (san diego): 14 team h2h mixed got offered gio gonzalez, nelson cruz, and shelby miller for my cliff lee and allen craig who wins.

Paul Sporer: That's pretty fair, but I'd hold your pair. Not just bc it has Craig, either.

Mark (Ky.): I'm expecting at least 10 minutes on Cingrani in your next pitching podcast, even though he prolly deserves 20. Can't remember a lefty who relies that much on his fastball -- and it working!

Paul Sporer: Got more than that I think. We recorded overnight. Going up shortly after this chat.

boneil33 (Boston): Does Teheran ever live up to the hype?

Paul Sporer: Probably not, but that's the nature of prospects. Does he ever become something of note? Yeah, probably, but it could be three years from now when he's 25. That's why I suggest not fawning over prospects.

I.P. Freely (Springfield): Is Jonathan Niese a buy low candidate or should I avoid him at all costs?

Paul Sporer: Cool name. You're 9 years old, lol. I'd buy at a reasonable price.

dianagram (VORGville): Very deep (20 team) HTH non-keeper league with these categories R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, Net SB, IP, SV, ERA, WHIP, K/9, QS (needed 3b help): I have no 3B, but Trumbo can play 1B, so I traded Pujols/Tepesch for Ryan Zimmerman/HyunJin Ryu. How did I do?

Paul Sporer: You did pretty well. Tepesch was/is fool's gold whereas Ryu has some sustainability as Doug & I spoke about in our latest episode (up later today). Zimm just needs to stay on the field for you and you'll do really well there.

Damon (Missouri): Love the Towers of Power podcast. I like the fact that it is "uncensored" because it feels like more real life reactions to things, best example being the live recording during the Greinke-Quentin fight. I wish there were a little bit of a warning though as the first time I listened was in the car with the kids (ages 4 and 7). Don't change a thing but maybe a heads up for other new listeners would be good.

Paul Sporer: Thanks, Damon. I think there is a little red "Explicit" tag from iTunes that alerts folks when they download.

michaelmcduffe (ottawa): Leaving SO out of the equation which guy do I keep? Peralta or Estrada. They're both killing me.

Paul Sporer: I guess Estrada bc he has more experience, but leaving out SO is like saying leaving out the face for Kim Kardashian because that's really all there is. The rest is pure trash.

BRS (Boston): Is Ike Davis worth waiting for at my Util slot or should I abandon ship and grab Swisher, Alvarez or Reddick?

Paul Sporer: Swish!!!

BJ Birdy (Ontario ): I'd love your perspective on Rubby De La Rosa? Up this year? As an SP or bullpen guy? He was promising in LA.

Paul Sporer: I'm a HUGE fan. Whether he's an SP depends on a spot opening more than anything else. BB are the issue. More of a 2014 play for me. If I had to bet, I'd bet RP with maybe a spot start or 3 this year.

Bradley (Baltimore ): Is Strop or O'Day the backup in Baltimore right now? Will Strop rebound?

Paul Sporer: Strop's been fine for the most part, but two 3 ER outings will kill an RP's numbers. I like O'Day as a backup, but it's probably moot since JJ is awesome.

Guancous (Washington DC): Please rank: Middlebrooks, Alvarez, Valbuena, Moustakas, Seppaku

Paul Sporer: Reverse order? Honestly WMB, Alvarez, and Mous are all the same player. Their track record, even WMB's short record, gives em all the nod over Valbuena though he is someone I've always thought had some talent.

Shawnykid23 (CT): I'm holding onto Robert Stephenson in a Dynasty League. Should I drop him for someone closer like a Yordano Ventura (dominant again last night) or J.R. Graham? Any additional thoughts on any of these 3?

Paul Sporer: I'd have to rely on our prospect guys there, but I personally have Stephenson and like a good bit. I really like Yordano, but he feels RP-esque.

DetroitDale (Florida (eternal spring training)): How late is too late to say it's still early? At what point to hot or cold starts become not just streaks or actual signs of the team's quality? More specifically are is the good start by KC and the bad start by Anaheim signs of their actual ability?

Paul Sporer: Here is a piece of player stability - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17659; team stability, I'm not really sure. I mean we've seen teams have a good 2-3 months and then fold like a cheap shirt. I didn't hate the trade for KC nearly as much as most folks, especially for 2013 specifically so I think there is some sustainability there, but they still have a steep uphill battle to compete for the playoffs. LA has no pitching, they didn't really have any before the season started, either. Too many of us got drunk on their lineup in predicting them to win the West.

jojokamish (Mass): How embarrassed should I feel to be in an 8 team league?

Paul Sporer: 0% if you have fun. If it's competitive and cool, rock on. It's not for me personally, but I don't begrudge anywhere their league setup. Play with what ya got!

Jacob (Springfield): Any thoughts between these three (brutal) 3B options in a 14 team mixed OBP league (yes, I effed up my draft on this position): Marwin Gonzalez, Pedro Alvarez, Luis Valbuena.

Paul Sporer: Reverse order 'em.

Tim (NYC): Which former Rays outfield prospect will have the better year? BJ Upton, Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young, or Rocco Baldelli?

Paul Sporer: Elijah Dukes.

chris (Vancouver ): How would you rank these AL starters or the balance of 2013? Ubaldo, Maurer, Fausto, Straily, Bauer. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Straily, Maurer, Hernandez, Bauer, my beagle, me, the mouse I'm using on my laptop, Ubaldo.


(Tim, you probably had the right order re: your Rays guys unless Hambone stops swinging at LITERALLY everything ever.)

Sean (NY): Can Rafael Montero's secondary pitches project to plus with some more refinement? His change up has good fade and the breaking pitches are heavy.

Paul Sporer: Looked amazing so far. It seemed to be his change that needed the work. I'd reach out to our prospect team to see what's driving his early success. He's someone I like, but it's not my wheelhouse to check out low level prospects in-season. Nor have I read any reports to date.

Carlester (The Present): Hi Paul, what are your thoughts on CC for the rest of this year?

Paul Sporer: I think he'll be fine. Pretty much last year's guy from a composite value standpoint.

Steve (Bayshore): Thoughts on Anthony Rizzo. Slow start but seems to be coming on. A good play from here on out?

Paul Sporer: He's been excellent so far. If this is a slow start, he's going to have a tremendous season (has a 905 OPS, 9 HR, and 142 OPS+ so far)

Elijah Dukes (Alone): I'm not even 30 yet. Surprised?

Paul Sporer: Terrified.

Mark (Ky.): What do fantasy owners who don't have room for another catcher do with Evan Gattis? Love the pop he provides but if he's only playing 2-3 games a week is it worth keeping him on the roster?

Paul Sporer: Really depends on league format, but probably not in most mixed league formats.

Elijah Dukes (Parts Unknown): IN THE FAAAACE!

Paul Sporer: LOL.

Shawn (My Cubicle): Who has more value ROS- Porcello or Smyly?

Paul Sporer: Smyly, a better fit for the ballclub.

Mike (Tampa): How soon is too soon to punt *2* statistical categories in a 5x5 league assuming you're relatively well set in the other 8?

Paul Sporer: Always. You're putting way too much pressure on your team to dominate 8 categories if you wanna win punting 2 cats.

eamuscatuli15 (neb): is scoresheet awesome?

Paul Sporer: I'm enjoying it so far. Inherited a crummy franchise that is hanging in there and drafted a behemoth that is sustaining the Stanton injury well enough.

James (Manhattan): Big AL-only 5x5 with OBP instead of AVG. Have two spots for three less-than-desirable MI: Dozier, Keppinger, and Nakajima on the DL. Whom do I lose when Nakajima comes back?

Paul Sporer: I'd have to see something from Nakajima first, but honestly, Keppinger is probably the odd man out especially since he's an AVG dude.

Finley (Swampscott): Hi there. Any interesting AL only value coming out of the Astros recent lineup changes?

Paul Sporer: Not really.

DanDaMan (SeaCliff): Paul- I'm in a 12 team league with just 6 bench spots. Right now I have Eric Hosmer (.258 zero home runs) and Brett Lawrie (batting a wopping .185) taking up 2 spots based on their potential. What point do you cut bait? or would you have already done that?

Paul Sporer: I have those jerkstores in an AL only so it's less painful. It really depends who you are replacing them with. I imagine there's more depth at 1B of if he's not your starter, then cut Hos and pick up an upside player off the wire.

eamuscatuli15 (neb): so on scoresheet...you pay for a team, then i guess you would have a league fee to make it a pay league?

Paul Sporer: Fair question, but I don't know the answer. My teams were both free.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Thoughts on Daniel Hudson, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino? Will any have value this year? Who's best long-term?

Paul Sporer: No idea this year, wouldn't really waste much time. Hudson long-term.

Izzy Alcantara (Not a good place): Pretty sure Dukes just stole my line.

Paul Sporer: Probably not all he took, either.

cracker73 (Florida): What are your thoughts on Pettite's recent problems and how do you think he will do the rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: The simple answer is a good one here. He's a hundred. Homers have been an issue since coming back and those are always killers. Houston can get loose every once in a while so I don't really freak out over that start. Despite that thrashing, he still has league avg stats. I'd just stand pat.

trippical (cville): Hey Paul, rank these pitchers for 5x5 rest of season: Paul Maholm, Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, Marco Estrada, Kyle Kendrick, Jarrod Parker. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Maholm, JJ (injury guys just scare me & TOR is a mess; upside keeps him 2nd), Kendrick, Parker, Estrada, the chapstick I'm putting on, the desk this computer is on, Halladay

MickeyRivers (NJ): Any hope for Jorge DLR to regain his K numbers?

Paul Sporer: Sure, but give him time. Wouldn't bet on it for this year. He's only pitched 102 IP since start of 2011.

Carlester (The Present): with Tazawa getting the nod over Uehera, how many saves do you think Tazawa gets this year?

Paul Sporer: 6-7. Not convinced he keeps it all year.

cracker73 (Florida): Will Josh Beckett turn it around this season? Is he worth keeping on a fantasy roster?

Paul Sporer: Yes, yes. Skills still strong. Really just been an ugly home run spell.

buddons42 (Detroit): At what point should I go from kind of nervous to outright panic over Matt Kemp's utter lack of power? A .077 ISO is starting to really worry me.

Paul Sporer: Makes sense, that's why it's tough to invest in guys coming off of major injuries.

Marc (Flagstaff): Does Elvis Andrus turn it around soon? His early season struggles are killing me (OBP league).

Paul Sporer: Yeah, but he's not ALL that great in the first place. Still on pace for 30 SB and 81 R. The SB is about right, the R should jump a little. Stand pat if only bc the position is a wasteland.

Tony (Work): Saw some criticism of Farrell for choosing Tazawa over Uehera. Their thought was Uehera is a 1 IP-only guy and Tazawa is the guy Boston uses to get out of jams, considering how well he's done with inherited runners this year, and they don't really have a good guy to replace Tazawa in that role. Do you think Farrell is making the right call?

Paul Sporer: Sure do - https://twitter.com/sporer/status/331606337203101696

Mark (Ky.): Another pod request: Trevor Bauer. I don't know how good he will be, but everything about that guy fascinates me. Thanks for answering all my Qs here and on twitter.

Paul Sporer: He will definitely get in there. Email our new show email addy once you hear it on ep 2.

Carlester (The Present): Sorry if I submitted a question twice, my computer is annoying

Paul Sporer: NEVER let it happen again!!!!

eamuscatuli15 (neb): current roster in a 11tm/pts/mixer... mauer, konerko, phillips, trumbo, tulo, cespedes (he's dashing), carlos gomez, heyward, coco, vwells, t. hunter, profar, O. taveras, hosmer, Aoki, Yu, Burnett, CC, Hellickson, Rafael soriano, eJax, De la Rosa, shark, F. Liriano, Bartolo, and Straily. do you like that roster?

Paul Sporer: Pretty hot!

Jonathan (LA): Was offered a trade in a full keeper league: Give: C Crawford, Posey, Gregory Polanco Get: Headley, Andrus, DArnaud I am in a rebuilding year and looking for long term solutions all over. What say you?

Paul Sporer: You're giving way too much if you're rebuilding. Posey should net a lot more. Don't buy young Cs, they're a bad investment, IMO. Posey is the exception, not the rule. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20258

MickeyRivers (NJ): Any reason to be believe in Scott Feldman's success?

Paul Sporer: No.

cracker73 (Florida): What do you expect from Kazmir this season? He seems to have his velocity back.

Paul Sporer: I think he'll be decent. Ups and downs, probably best as a spot-starter in 10-12 tm mixers, but upside for more if his stuff really is back and the command comes along.

Joseph (Seattle): What does one do in a dynasty league where injuries completely destroy a team? I have around 8 players DL'ed right now. Suffer through the beginning or sell low? My team should be competing this year but has underperformed.

Paul Sporer: Depends how long term the injuries and how far behind you get. Maybe ride out the month and then start selling if you're still badly behind with no reprieve in sight.

Shawn (My Cubicle): What kind of pitcher would Francis Underwood make? An ace SP with 80 grade heat right??

Paul Sporer: More like one of those quality 3s who looks like a 1 on several days, but still takes him lumps. Very craft, gets by with quality secondary stuff, 90-grade guile, every trick in the book, and wringing every ounce of talent out of what most saw as a second-division guy.

nictaclacta (Phoenix): Hey Paul, Is the recent success of Danny Salazar (Akron Aeros) indicative of his future or just a statistical fluke? Hoping that the combination to his talent vault has been found. You suggest #3 in SP Guide. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: He's certainly taking steps toward that #3 ceiling with his second go at Double-A. Still a lot of work to be done, but great start to his season.

Segalman (Boston, MA): What do I do with Lincecum and Hellickson? They've under-performed for the most part, but show signs of success from time to time. Should I keep them or dump them?

Paul Sporer: It really depends on league format and roster size as do most of these answers. In a vacuum you wanna hang on because of their upside, albeit different types of upside. If I had to bet on one and didn't desperately need Ks, I'd lean toward Hellickson as Lincecum as the shakier recent history.

Phillip (South Bend): Buying into what Kevin Slowey is selling?

Paul Sporer: Always been a favorite of mine http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20429

Tripp (VA): Ike Davis was just dropped in my 14 team 5x5 league. To add him I'd have to drop either Kevin Gregg or Kyuji Fujikawa. Because of his upside in this deep league, do I go for it? And which Cub do I drop?

Paul Sporer: Eh, I don't know. There is probably another Davis type on the wire. His upside isn't really THAT high after seeing what he did last year. He's a power source, nothing more.

kcasey1029 (Denver): 12 team mixed keeper league. Is it worth holding onto Hosmer? He's my only 1B and is KILLING me. Yonder Alonso, Matt Adams, James Loney, and Mitch Moreland are the only decent names on waivers? Would you take any of them over Hosmer or try to make a trade for someone better?

Paul Sporer: I'd prefer a trade since 1B is an elite offensive position, but in the meantime scoop Alonso to get some 1B production going. Hang onto Hosmer (unless he's part of the trade), but go and sit him for a bit.

FCF (CLEVELAND): Hey Paul, whats your crystal ball show you on Jesse Biddle? how quickly will he be up? how quickly will he be affective? What is his ceiling and floor? Thanks again.

Paul Sporer: That'd be a tough one even for the prospect guys especially since it's almost impossible to know questions 2 and 3 re: when & how good. I'd take a look at his prospect profile from this spring http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19360

jlebeck66 (WI): Anything change with Porcello from ST to real season other than the competition? Thought this might be the year.

Paul Sporer: His stuff certainly looked more crisp, but that's why Spring Training can be and often is so deceiving. He's a poor fit for that ballclub as he really needs a sharp D behind him to best maximize his skills.

MikeL (NC): Im in a deep NL Keeper lg and need to speculate on AL trades. How likely do you think it is Asdrubal gets traded at the deadline? (Cards perhaps)? TY

Paul Sporer: Not very unless they're wallowing at the bottom of the standings. Their offense is quite good which is keeping them afloat. They have MI depth in the minors, but it's quite a ways out.

davelamb (Alameda): Who do you like in a 14 team league with SS but no CI position? Alexi Ramirez, Crawford, Cosart, Drew, Scutaro

Paul Sporer: I was in on Crawford at the start of the season (stop bragging, Paul), so I'll stick with him.

Damon (MO): You're right. Totally missed the explicit tag on the podcast. My bad.

Paul Sporer: No problem. We wanted to make sure that was on there for the obvious reasons as we know some folks listen with children around or whilst at work.

MN Mike (MN): I currently do not have an active 3B on the roster and no teams are interested in trading. Any off the radar (like not in the top 20 at the position guys) you would use in your lineup? I am looking at guys like Chisenhall, Gillaspe, Nunez, Nix, etc.) Will Ryan Wheeler make an appearance this year or he essentially blocked by Nolan Arenado?

Paul Sporer: Chis should be on the fat side of the platoon & he's raking righties. If they use him as platoon only, he works. Gillaspie might get more burn as Keppinger fails.

Shawn (My Cubicle): I didn't think my man crush for Matt Moore could be topped, but man Yu Darvish is dreamy

Paul Sporer: Mine and Jason's top 2 for LABR Mixed

Dave (Canada): 10-team mixed points league. (IP, W, BB, K, QS). Starting to panic about Ian Kennedy. Have the option to pick-up Corbin, Helix, Minor, D. Holland, Cobb, Miller, Haren. Should I make a move or hold tight on Kennedy? If so, how do you rank these? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I like Kennedy, but 2011 is the outlier. I think 2012 is what you should be looking for and he'll back to that level. Overall if you wanna go elsehwere and stream with that spot, it makes sense as his 2012 isn't a HUGE asset in 10-team. Better real life pitcher than he is 10-team mixer pitcher.

Carlester (The Present): Wasn't it Heraclitus who said that a chat host can never truly answer the same question twice. That said, what are your thoughts on Ryan Cook (deep AL keeper)?

Paul Sporer: Solid enough reliever who is a decent bet for next-in-line work. I'd definitely hang onto him in that format.

Jim (St Paul): What do you think about Hector Santiago the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: He's been great in his tiny sample as a starter for his career, but it's tiny so it's not terribly reliable. Mostly a wait-and-see, stream type in 10- and 12-team mixed leagues.

Jim Clancy (Exhibition Stadium): In a dynasty league in which I'm competing, but I'm weak at SP, I can trade 2 prospect picks, Gerrit Cole, & Brian McCann for Chris Sale and Alex Cobb. I'm leaning no because I lurve me some Cole. Still, I have Carlos Santana, and with Josh Johnson, Halladay, & Haren all disappointing, I could use the help (Rest of staff is Medlen, Moore, Gallardo, Wainwright, and CC). Should I pull the trigger?

Paul Sporer: I love Cole, too, but if you're in contention to win this year, you do the deal. Prospect love kills folks in these leagues bc they get married to endless cycle of the future and then they want to compete now and have future assets. Just focus on now. I'd do the deal.

Geoff (VT): Marte or Jennings ROS in points?

Paul Sporer: Marte

Dave (Canada): Thanks Paul! Certainly appreciate your insights. How would you then rank these: Corbin, Helix, Minor, D. Holland, Cobb, Miller, Haren?

Paul Sporer: You're welcome. Cobb, Holland, Minor stand out.

Mat (Toronto): Is Justin Smoak worth keeping around in 16 team dynasty league, or is he just taking up a spot?

Paul Sporer: Oof, probably just taking a spot. I've about lost all hope.

Paul Sporer: Alright folks, with 120 questions in the books, that'll end it for this one. I hope to be back soon for another chat and we'll break some records 'n stuff!


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