Biographical

Portrait of Chris Tillman

Chris Tillman POrioles

Orioles Player Cards | Orioles Team Audit | Orioles Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 26)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
166.7 4.17 1.33 134 13 7 0 0.9
Birth Date4-15-1988
Height6' 5"
Weight210 lbs
Age26 years, 6 months, 9 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
0.02010
0.82011
0.82012
1.02013
1.82014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2009 BAL 21 12 12 65.0 65.0 0.0 2 5 0 0 4 0 285 77 40 39 15 137 24 23 2 39 5.40 6.14 6.61 -2.6 -0.3
2010 BAL 22 11 11 53.7 53.7 0.0 2 5 0 0 4 0 236 51 37 35 9 95 31 30 1 31 5.87 5.86 6.44 0.4 0.0
2011 BAL 23 13 13 62.0 62.0 0.0 3 5 0 0 4 0 287 77 41 38 5 113 25 25 4 46 5.52 4.03 4.43 7.9 0.8
2012 BAL 24 15 15 86.0 86.0 0.0 9 3 0 0 9 0 347 66 38 28 12 120 24 24 1 66 2.93 4.20 4.45 7.9 0.8
2013 BAL 25 33 33 206.3 206.3 0.0 16 7 0 0 21 1 845 184 87 85 33 326 68 66 3 179 3.71 4.45 4.58 10.9 1.0
2014 BAL 26 34 34 207.3 207.3 0.0 13 6 0 0 21 0 871 189 83 77 21 296 66 65 4 150 3.34 4.04 4.51 9.5 0.9
Career118118680.3680.30.04531006312871644326302951087238233155114.004.534.8634.03.4

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2006 EVE A- 5 5 19.1 4.96 88 .301 .253 .334 .368 .273 .371 97 2.6 0.3 2.6 0.3
2006 MRN Rk 5 0 11.0 2.86 153 .218 .267 .367 .365 .282 .346 113 4.7 0.5 4.7 0.5
2007 WIS A 8 8 33.0 3.82 111 .248 .257 .334 .380 .263 .312 94 5.2 0.5 5.2 0.5
2007 HDS A+ 20 20 102.7 4.82 120 .257 .274 .348 .429 .272 .322 120 28.0 2.7 28.0 2.7
2008 BOW AA 28 28 135.7 4.17 113 .227 .268 .345 .410 .261 .302 103 24.9 2.5 24.9 2.5
2009 BAL MLB 12 12 65.0 6.61 72 .289 .270 .340 .438 .266 .302 107 -2.6 -0.3 -2.6 -0.3
2009 NOR AAA 18 18 96.7 3.80 116 .223 .266 .333 .402 .250 .302 101 16.2 1.6 16.2 1.6
2010 BAL MLB 11 11 53.7 6.44 74 .276 .262 .333 .428 .263 .256 115 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 0.0
2010 NOR AAA 21 21 121.3 4.48 103 .234 .261 .328 .406 .253 .301 98 10.7 1.0 10.7 1.0
2011 BAL MLB 13 13 62.0 4.43 106 .289 .254 .320 .399 .259 .348 106 7.9 0.8 7.9 0.8
2011 NOR AAA 15 15 76.3 7.37 36 .281 .265 .329 .412 .257 .263 92 -14.3 -1.4 -14.3 -1.4
2012 BAL MLB 15 15 86.0 4.45 101 .235 .253 .316 .405 .261 .221 101 7.9 0.8 7.9 0.8
2012 BOW AA 1 1 3.3 5.19 81 .245 .260 .341 .385 .270 .364 98 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
2012 NOR AAA 16 15 89.3 3.91 111 .243 .261 .331 .385 .254 .323 94 10.9 1.1 10.9 1.1
2013 BAL MLB 33 33 206.3 4.58 93 .260 .260 .325 .414 .272 .269 100 11.5 1.2 10.9 1.0
2014 BAL MLB 34 34 207.3 4.51 92 .253 .254 .318 .388 .263 .267 100 9.3 1.0 9.5 0.9

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2006 EVE A- 1 3 0 5 5 19.1 25 15 29 4 44% .371 11.8 7.1 1.9 13.7 2.09 8.01 2.6 0.3
2006 MRN Rk 2 0 1 5 0 11.0 9 5 16 0 50% .346 7.4 4.1 0.0 13.1 1.27 0.82 4.7 0.5
2007 WIS A 1 4 0 8 8 33.0 31 13 34 1 43% .312 8.5 3.5 0.3 9.3 1.33 3.55 5.2 0.5
2007 HDS A+ 6 7 0 20 20 102.7 107 48 105 12 40% .322 9.4 4.2 1.1 9.2 1.51 5.26 28.0 2.7
2008 BOW AA 11 4 0 28 28 135.7 115 65 154 10 40% .302 7.6 4.3 0.7 10.2 1.33 3.18 24.9 2.5
2009 NOR AAA 8 6 0 18 18 96.7 85 26 99 5 41% .302 7.9 2.4 0.5 9.2 1.15 2.70 16.2 1.6
2009 BAL MLB 2 5 0 12 12 65.0 77 24 39 15 39% .302 10.7 3.3 2.1 5.4 1.55 5.40 -2.6 -0.3
2010 NOR AAA 11 7 0 21 21 121.3 120 30 94 10 39% .301 8.9 2.2 0.7 7.0 1.24 3.34 10.7 1.0
2010 BAL MLB 2 5 0 11 11 53.7 51 31 31 9 42% .256 8.6 5.2 1.5 5.2 1.53 5.87 0.4 0.0
2011 NOR AAA 3 6 0 15 15 76.3 77 38 54 17 41% .263 9.1 4.5 2.0 6.4 1.51 5.19 -14.3 -1.4
2011 BAL MLB 3 5 0 13 13 62.0 77 25 46 5 41% .348 11.2 3.6 0.7 6.7 1.65 5.52 7.9 0.8
2012 BOW AA 0 1 0 1 1 3.3 4 2 2 0 36% .364 10.8 5.4 0.0 5.4 1.80 8.10 0.1 0.0
2012 NOR AAA 8 8 0 16 15 89.3 85 30 92 5 51% .323 8.6 3.0 0.5 9.3 1.29 3.63 10.9 1.1
2012 BAL MLB 9 3 0 15 15 86.0 66 24 66 12 36% .221 6.9 2.5 1.3 6.9 1.05 2.93 7.9 0.8
2013 BAL MLB 16 7 0 33 33 206.3 184 68 179 33 41% .269 8.0 3.0 1.4 7.8 1.22 3.71 10.9 1.0
2014 BAL MLB 13 6 0 34 34 207.3 189 66 150 21 42% .267 8.2 2.9 0.9 6.5 1.23 3.34 9.5 0.9

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2009 1156 0.5078 0.4351 0.8410 0.6048 0.2601 0.8930 0.7162 0.1590
2010 942 0.4926 0.4299 0.8444 0.6293 0.2364 0.9110 0.6726 0.1531
2011 1163 0.4996 0.4480 0.8599 0.6351 0.2612 0.9079 0.7434 0.1363
2012 1431 0.5080 0.4542 0.8169 0.6300 0.2727 0.8734 0.6823 0.1831
2013 3470 0.5378 0.4631 0.8258 0.6367 0.2612 0.8577 0.7351 0.1736
2014 3406 0.5323 0.4592 0.8465 0.6498 0.2423 0.8981 0.6891 0.1535
Career115680.5220.45380.83730.63580.25490.88450.70890.162

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-05-12 2014-05-16 DTD 4 4 - Groin Soreness - -
2013-03-22 2013-04-06 15-DL 15 4 - Abdomen Recovery From Strain - -
2013-03-04 2013-03-22 Camp 18 0 - Abdomen Strain - -
2012-09-03 2012-09-17 DTD 14 13 Right Elbow Nerve Injury Ulnar Neuritis - -
2012-07-26 2012-07-26 DTD 0 0 - General Medical Illness - -
2011-05-16 2011-05-16 DTD 0 0 Trunk Soreness Rib Cage -
2010-02-20 2010-02-26 Camp 6 0 Low Back Tightness -
2009-05-24 2009-06-02 Minors 9 0 Groin Tightness -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 BAL $546,000
2013 BAL $508,500
2011 BAL $417,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
3 yrPrevious$925,500
2011Current$546,000
4 yrPvs + Cur$1,471,500
4 yrTotal$1,471,500

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
2 y 113 d1 year/$0.546M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$0.546M (2014). Re-signed by Baltimore 3/11/14.
  • 1 year/$0.5085M (2013). Re-signed by Baltimore 3/8/13. Award bonuses, including $25,000 for All-Star selection.
  • 1 year (2012). Re-signed by Baltimore 3/10/12.
  • 1 year/$0.417M (2011). Re-signed by Baltimore 2/11.
  • 1 year (2010). Re-signed 3/9/10. Optioned to Triple-A 3/30/10. Recalled 5/29/10.
  • 1 year (2009). Contract purchased 7/29/09.
  • Acquired in trade from Seattle 2/8/08.
  • Drafted 2006 (2-49) (Fountain Valley HS, Calif.). $0.68M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 10.9 9 0 29 29 191.1 165 56 153 24 .259 1.16 3.23 3.51 31.7 3.2
80o 10.6 9.5 0 29 29 185.1 168 57 148 24 .268 1.22 3.55 3.86 24.1 2.5
70o 10.3 9.9 0 29 29 180.9 170 58 145 25 .275 1.26 3.79 4.11 18.8 1.9
60o 10.1 10.2 0 29 29 177.3 171 59 142 25 .281 1.30 3.99 4.33 14.3 1.5
50o 9.9 10.6 0 29 29 174.0 173 59 139 25 .286 1.33 4.18 4.54 10.1 1.0
40o 9.7 10.9 0 29 29 170.7 174 59 137 25 .292 1.37 4.37 4.75 6.0 0.6
30o 9.5 11.2 0 29 29 167.2 175 60 134 25 .297 1.41 4.58 4.97 1.7 0.2
20o 9.2 11.7 0 29 29 163.2 177 60 131 26 .304 1.45 4.82 5.24 -3.3 -0.3
10o 8.9 12.2 0 29 29 157.7 179 61 126 26 .314 1.52 5.16 5.61 -9.9 -1.0
Weighted Mean9.910.502929174.11725913925.2851.324.164.5210.51.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
35% 69% 10% 17% 93%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20152710902727166152501432140.2781.223.583.898.32.77.81.12.3
2016289802525150140431322140.2811.223.653.968.42.67.91.31.9
2017298702121126113371141840.2731.193.513.828.12.68.11.31.9
2018307601919110100311051440.2841.193.413.718.22.58.61.11.8
20193166018181049830851540.2771.233.754.078.52.67.41.31.2
2020326501717979327831440.2831.233.704.038.62.57.71.31.2
2021336501515898524761340.2841.233.724.048.62.47.71.31.1
2022345501414817822701240.2851.233.744.068.72.47.81.31.0
2023354401212716920601040.2871.253.844.178.72.57.61.30.7

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
3427.213.316.316.47.6107

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 81)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 91 Gavin Floyd 2009 4.34
2 90 Homer Bailey 2012 4.20
3 89 Micah Owings 2009 5.64
4 88 Jordan Zimmermann 2012 3.17
5 87 Garrett Olson 2010 4.78
6 87 Glen Perkins 2009 5.98
7 86 Luke Hochevar 2010 5.33
8 86 Tommy Hunter 2013 2.92
9 86 Jeff Francis 2007 4.30
10 86 J.P. Howell 2009 2.97
11 86 Brett Cecil 2013 2.97
12 85 Travis Wood 2013 3.29
13 85 Sean Gallagher 2012 0.00 DNP
14 84 Noah Lowry 2007 4.38
15 84 Scott Baker 2008 3.45
16 84 Andrew Miller 2011 5.95
17 84 Dan Haren 2007 3.68
18 84 Edinson Volquez 2010 4.31
19 83 Kevin Slowey 2010 4.63
20 83 David Huff 2011 6.22
21 83 Wil Ledezma 2007 6.37
22 83 Ivan Nova 2013 3.17
23 82 Jon Niese 2013 4.28
24 82 Gio Gonzalez 2012 3.12
25 82 Tommy Hanson 2013 5.67
26 82 Taylor Buchholz 2008 3.12
27 82 Charlie Morton 2010 8.92
28 82 Wade Davis 2012 2.56
29 82 Carlos Carrasco 2013 6.94
30 82 Jerome Williams 2008 0.00 DNP
31 82 Ian Snell 2008 5.86
32 82 Ricky Romero 2011 3.40
33 82 Dillon Gee 2012 4.60
34 81 Jake Arrieta 2012 6.44
35 81 Felipe Paulino 2010 6.19
36 81 Kyle Davies 2010 5.59
37 81 Bud Norris 2011 4.50
38 81 Ricky Nolasco 2009 5.40
39 81 James Shields 2008 3.93
40 81 Brian Matusz 2013 3.71
41 81 Greg Smith 2010 6.46
42 81 Lance Lynn 2013 4.11
43 81 Kris Medlen 2012 1.70
44 80 Jeremy Hellickson 2013 5.33
45 80 Francisco Liriano 2010 3.62
46 80 Billy Buckner 2010 11.77
47 80 Brad Bergesen 2012 4.25
48 80 Tom Gorzelanny 2009 5.74
49 80 Ervin Santana 2009 5.35
50 79 Aaron Crow 2013 3.56
51 79 Tyler Clippard 2011 1.83
52 79 Jason Hammel 2009 4.79
53 79 Ryan Madson 2007 3.05
54 79 Miguel Asencio 2007 0.00 DNP
55 79 Jimmy Gobble 2008 8.53
56 79 Kyle Kendrick 2011 3.92
57 79 Joe Blanton 2007 4.15
58 78 Marc Rzepczynski 2012 4.24
59 78 Edwin Jackson 2010 4.77
60 78 Justin Germano 2009 0.00 DNP
61 78 Jered Weaver 2009 3.88
62 78 Andy Sonnanstine 2009 7.68
63 78 Anthony Swarzak 2012 5.31
64 78 Derek Holland 2013 3.80
65 78 Shaun Marcum 2008 3.57
66 78 Dana Eveland 2010 7.29
67 78 John Danks 2011 4.70
68 78 Brett Myers 2007 4.33
69 78 Max Scherzer 2011 4.62
70 78 Rick VandenHurk 2011 9.00
71 78 Trevor Bell 2013 0.00 DNP
72 77 Chad Gaudin 2009 5.19
73 77 Brian Bannister 2007 4.15
74 77 Sean Marshall 2009 4.54
75 77 Billy Pierce 1953 3.12
76 77 Kirk McCaskill 1987 6.15
77 77 Chuck James 2008 9.10
78 77 Jesse Litsch 2011 4.80
79 77 Ben McDonald 1994 4.29
80 77 Kevin Millwood 2001 4.91
81 77 Seth McClung 2007 6.00
82 77 Carlos Villanueva 2010 4.61
83 77 Cal Eldred 1994 4.83
84 77 Billy Loes 1956 6.05
85 77 Chris Volstad 2013 10.80
86 77 Johnny Cueto 2012 3.03
87 77 Daniel Hudson 2013 0.00 DNP
88 77 Juan Nicasio 2013 5.54
89 77 Johnny Podres 1959 4.29
90 77 Anthony Reyes 2008 2.76
91 77 Luis Tiant 1967 3.20
92 77 Don Wilson 1971 2.69
93 77 Steve Busby 1976 5.27
94 77 Zach Duke 2009 4.27
95 77 Blake Wood 2012 0.00 DNP
96 77 Juan Marichal 1964 2.98
97 77 Wade Miller 2003 4.61
98 77 Andy Benes 1994 4.28
99 77 Dustin McGowan 2008 4.85
100 77 Brett Tomko 1999 5.39

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .246 .307 .422 .254
11 vs R (Multi) .233 .299 .423 .250
18 Split (Multi) .013 .007 -.001 .005
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .247 .311 .433 .256
31 vs R (2013) .232 .293 .418 .242
38 Split (2013) .015 .018 .015 .015
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Tillman finally broke his three-year cycle of preseason promise followed by offseason disappointment. Just when it became tempting to write the once bright-eyed ingenue off, Tillman delivered on his nearly forgotten potential, pushing his major-league ERA below 5.00 for the first time in his career. He worked hard last spring, and his fastball was up a full 3 mph from the 90 he threw in 2011. More importantly, however, Tillman took a step forward with his command. His extreme fly-ball nature limits his upside, but he boasts above-average stuff, and if his control gains are legitimate, he should be a quality mid-rotation pitcher for the Orioles.
2012 Tillman is one of the trickiest pitchers in baseball to figure out. He'll look great one start and terrible the next, and in three stints in Baltimore has yet to find success. While his fastball used to sit in the low-90s, it was just over 89 mph this season. He still has the kind of stuff that should let him be successful, but if only he can command his pitches. The thing to remember with Tillman is that he's still just 23 years old, and if it ever clicks for him, he'll be a quality major leaguer. If in a couple years it hasn't clicked, he could still wind up as a valuable reliever. Those are big "ifs" but in a system like Baltimore's, "ifs" are the new upside.
2011 It was something of a surprise when Tillman was demoted out of spring training. An April no-hitter against Gwinnett was merely an interesting sidelight along the way to adding a cutter and, at least theoretically, improved command. That command was nowhere in evidence when Tillman was called up in late May, and he was hustled back to Triple-A with an ERA of 8.40. Another call-up in July, not long after a complete-game one-hitter against Norfolk, resulted in a split decision, with Tillman taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Rangers before receiving a pounding by the Rays, followed by another quick demotion. Finally plugged into the rotation for good when rosters expanded, he held opposing hitters to a .172 average in 28.2 innings, but walked 18 and was frighteningly easy to take deep. As Tillman’s occasional moments of dominance suggest, the makings of a successful pitcher remain inside him, but will require a lot of work to unearth. Still just 23, he has ample time left for digging.
2010 Tillman's arrival was eagerly anticipated in Baltimore, and he made his debut the same day that George Sherrill—who had come to the organization with him from Seattle in the Bedard trade—was dealt off to Los Angeles. His long, skinny frame is absolutely loaded with potential, and what he has now is already pretty darned good. His fastball clocks in at 92-94 mph with a boring-in action, his power curveball is a true swing-and-miss offering, and his changeup is solid. He does tend to pitch up in the zone, and tired noticeably in September, losing velocity and adding more than a run to his ERA with his last five outings. Note that he cut his walk rate way down in the minors last year, one of the big items on his to-do list; just 22 next April, one of the best pitching prospects out there is still evolving.
2009 Thank you, Mr. Bavasi, once again. Yet another piece of the Bedard trade, the tall, thin Tillman brought his act to Bowie and did not disappoint people expecting a top prospect. The youngest pitcher to start the year in Double-A, Tillman throws in the low 90s, with a very good curve and a... well, OK, he's not perfect, he's still working on the changeup. Tillman has made progress on control, but still has some work to do there as well. Something that sets him apart from other pitching prospects is that nebulous, unquantifiable "presence" that's part attitude, part confidence, and part intelligence. Scouts and opposing hitters say he has it.
2008 Tillman's minor league ERAs are a little deceptive. For one thing, 27 unearned runs were scored on him between two levels last year, which is a high total even in the bus leagues. On the other hand, the tall right-hander finished the season as the youngest pitcher in the hitter's paradise that is the Cal League. The Mariners love his makeup, his mid-90s heat, and his improving command, "Improving" being the key word-he still uncorked 13 wild pitches and hit 12 batters last year, so he's far from a finished product.
2007 Chris Tillman, another 2006 prep pick, is Butler`s right-handed bookend, another kid who runs the fastball up to 95 MPH, but is still miles away from the Show.

BP Articles

Chris Tillman is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-10-23 14:00:00 (link to chat)What does Chris Tillman's season look like next year? Asking because it seems like he overperformed his PECOTA projections this year
(Aaron from MD)
The lazy answer is that he'll give half of it back, regress some to the mean, but raise his baseline for expected performance, right? Well, I see an upward trajectory for a pitcher going into his age-27 season, who has consecutive seasons of 200-IP under his belt. He could continue his upward trajectory, though a pitcher who has outplayed his FIP for 3 consecutive seasons will have his share of doubters. The fastball is his main weapon, and Tillman has lost about 1.5 mph over the past couple of seasons while upping his usage of the pitch - with progressively better results - a combination that will further confuse prognosticators. I think that it has more to do with his refinement of pitch command and movement, and if that trend continues, then he will outplay his FIP once again in 2015.

On the jukebox: Jimi Hendrix, "Stone Free" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the great work you do here, Doug. What are you seeing when you watch Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman? What does each do well and what could improve?
(Matt from Austin)
Gausman has an insane change-up, and he can play off the change-fastball combination given his elite raw velocity, though his breaking stuff lags behind and will likely impede his chances of hitting K-related ceilings. There is great power in Gaus' delivery, and he has the upside for plus stability but is still a bit volatile as he continues to mature physically.

Tillman has an exceptionally tall arm slot, releasing the ball at heights of 6.75 feet or higher. His ultra-high release stems from a combination of physical height (he's 6'3"), a tendency to stay tall in the delivery (high center-of-gravity with minimal flex in the knees), and a spine-tilt that artificially raises his slot. The power grades out as average, and Tillman has room for improvement in the balance department, but downhill plane is not an issue.

On the jukebox: Pantera, "Cemetery Gates" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-04-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Using BrooksBaseball, I noticed Chris Tillman used his cutter a lot more against the Tigers than the Red Sox. His control of the pitch on Sunday was the best its been in his career. In 2013, he only threw it 6% of the time because he didn't know where it was going. If he's able to get the frequency of the pitch above 10%, will he become more than just a solid #3?
(Ace from PA)
The cutter adds another weapon with a different velocity range than his other pitches, and it will be interesting to see if he adjusts his usage patterns. He currently uses the pitch almost exclusively vs RHB's, and I think that had as much to do with his DET-BOS split as anything. Detroit had just three batters from the left side in that game - VMart, Tyler Collins, Bryan Holaday - while the Sawx had a more intimidating 5-pack that included Papi, Carp, Nava, Sizemore, and Pierzynski. I like Tillman's upside, and though his mechanics report card is full of average-ish grades, the guy has an incredibly tall release point (avg of 6.75 feet of height in 2013) that gives him the downhill-plane advantage. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-02-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)Are you riding the Chris Tillman train? The movement on his pitches is insane according to pitch f/x, his velocity is back up, and his mechanics are above average.
(NightmareRec0n from Boston)
I'm not on it full time but I think there's something there. He has to fix his homer happy tendencies but I think he's going to be a solid mid rotation guy. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)12 tm, AL Only, both Chris Tillman $6 + AJ Griffin $3 need extensions. Do you extend both or just one: Tillman $11 or Griffin $8? I worry that I'll extend the wrong one (leaning Tillman).
(Teenwolf from Vancouver, BC)
I could extend both for one year, but if it's just one, then Griffin (and I love Tillman, but gimme the better park and $3) (Paul Sporer)
2014-02-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you make of it when we see highly touted prospects who still have excellent stuff don't produce the results we expect? Garrett Richards comes to mind. He throws gas,has a plus slider/curve, but can't strike anyone one out. Chris Tillman is another guy good fastball with life, dropping curve ball, and a slider with a ton of movement
(NightmareRec0n from Boston)
The gap between the highest level of the minor leagues (Triple-A) and the major leagues is the biggest gap across any professional sport. I think Tillman could still be a good starter, though. (Ronit Shah)
2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Chris Tillman in a QS league?
(Mitch from Iowa)
Tillman is underrated. I'm a fan. I actually prefer him to Tanaka in 2014. (Ben Carsley)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty points league with a salary cap of $162. My team is currently around $125 and likely to add another $10 through the draft. Before the next round of free agent bidding, I can choose to lock up one of these three: David Ortiz $9/2 yrs, Iwakuma $9/2, or Chris Tillman $5/3. Which do you prioritize? For the other two, I'll have the right to match the highest bid placed on them. If you need more context, please let me know. Thanks!
(doog7642 from Blaine, mn)
Hey doog.

Given raw ability/value I'd probably want Papi but given age and probably want Iwakuma. It's a close call between those two but I'd go Iwakuma just based on age and the fact that your salaries are so low. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)16 team dynasty league. My current OF (3) is a combo of Leonys Martin, Wil Myers, BJ Upton, Nick Swisher, Mike Morse. Ive got an offer of George Springer for my Michael Wacha. Im up in the air on it as I think my rotation (Verlander, Teheran, Ian Kennedy, Chris Tillman, Jose Quintana and Ubaldo) can handle the loss but Im wondering how you see a deal like that shaking out long term? Springers hit tool worries me long term as I could see him being a .240 hitter which impacts his counting stats production as well. What do you see he and Wacha turning into?
(dzemens from Adrian, MI)
I think I would make that deal in a dynasty. Springer's average might never be great, but his power/speed combo in fantasy is enticing and a Raul Mondesi type wouldn't surprise me. I like Wacha a lot, but I see him as more of a 2/3 type than an ace. Springer might not be a top real life hitter but he could be in fantasy because of the speed. I'd make the deal. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think what we saw out of Chris Tillman in 2013 is legit? Or do you think he will regress?
(Tom from Dallas)
I'll reference myself on that one - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22482 and http://painttheblack.com/2013/09/have-you-noticed-chris-tillman/ Tl;dr - I'm a fan. (Paul Sporer)
2013-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Chris Tillman's future prospects?
(Kevin from Montpelier)
I was really impressed with what he showed in 2013 and I think you're looking at a nice middle of the rotation arm for the next few years. (Mark Anderson)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Is Felix Dumbrount worth keeping on a 12 team mixed roster? He's pitching today and don't feel confident in starting him. Any high upside pitchers to target for end of the rotation SP spots?
(RC from PDX)
Was that a Freudian slip? He's not really worth owning in a 12 teamer for now. You can find better pitching on the wire. How about someone like Chris Tillman or Ervin Santana? Or Francisco Liriano?? Someone help me. Seriously. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)What is ur feeling on Tillman? First start was bad, but a step forward was expected. Wait & see, or don't start again until he shows something. Lost Weaver, any other low end starters to help out in a deep league.
(Donald Loria from Milwaukee)
Like a lot of the BP staff, I was high on Chris Tillman coming into this year. He was limited in Spring Training and then went on the DL due to an abdominal injury. There's probably some rust here. If Tillman's available in your deep league and you need to replace Jered Weaver, he's probably going to be one of your better choices. (Mike Gianella)
2013-03-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Tillman, Bedard, or Kazmir for a backend starter in fantasy?
(Manny from NY)
I don't know much about how fantasy stats work, but if it's not Chris Tillman, then I don't think I want to play. (Zachary Levine)
2013-02-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)In your opinion who may be a few pitchers outside the top 100-150 or so that will possibly take a leap forward or make a name for themselves in 2013 that could be possible steals at the end of some drafts?
(Chris from NJ)
Using the bottom 100 names from the PFM: Lucas Harrell, Nate Eovaldi, Chris Tillman, Alex Cobb, Jason Hammel (Jason Collette)
2013-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who's a good buy-low MLB regular for SP this season?
(Sara from Tacoma)
I'll give you a few to cater to leagues of a variety of sizes. Hisashi Iwakuma is a sleeper I like a great deal. His high groundball percentage will help him in the transition to Safeco's new ballpark dimensions. Brett Anderson was impressive in his brief return to the hill at the end of last year and is currently a draft value at his current draft position in Mock Draft Central mocks. A few ugly starts to begin Ryan Dempster's time with the Rangers seem to have driven down his value. He'll be fine pitching in Boston and remains an undervalued starter. Chris Tillman enjoyed his first taste of success in the majors last year. He's not as good as his sub-3.00 ERA suggests, but some backlash from those looking at the peripherals may make him a value in AL-only in deep mixed leagues. I think he's capable of improving his underlying stats and staving off some of the regression that would otherwise come from him pitching at the same level this year. (Josh Shepardson)
2011-04-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Chris Tillman: 88 mph buzzkill like Hughes, or kid working on his mechanics and will see his velocity return?
(Drungo from SoMd)
To paraphrase Joe Morgan, I haven't seen him pitch this season, so I'll reserve judgement. I read that the velo drop was at least partially an intentional measure to increase control and movement, but I'm skeptical. Progressive velo decline is the norm for pitchers, unfortunately, but big velo drops are usually a cause for concern. (Ben Lindbergh)
2010-11-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)What's your general approach to pitchers that struggle in their first couple exposures to major league hitters but keep getting it done in the minors? Do you keep running Chris Tillman out there next year until he figures it out?
(Aaron from YYZ)
I think you have to approach it on a player by player basis. You need to find out what the stuff is and why it isn't working in the big leagues. Tillman is very frustrating, as his stuff has backed off, but just a little, and not enough to define his struggles. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-06-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Orioles fan. Nobody in the majors is performing. Nobody in the minors is performing. I know they won't always be this bad, but realistically, when is the earliest they could contend? Last year pundits thought it was 2011/2012, but now that seems ridiculous. Will I have to wait until a salary cap is implemented or Angelos sells the team?
(Dan from Maryland)
This has been pretty much a lost year, as just about all of the key youngsters on whom the Orioles' future hinges has taken a step backwards - Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman... In retrospect, I think the team waited too long to pull the plug on Dave Trembley, because the situation has just festered, but keep in mind the Orioles' poor standing also has to do with the fact that the other four teams in the division are especially strong; the O's are 8-25 (.242) against them, which is worse than the 1962 Mets' pace.

In terms of contention, I think a lot depends upon whom they hire as a manager. Buck Showalter might be able to get them playing respectable baseball by sometime next year, but contention will take some front office smarts, and I'm not sure the guy who signed Garrett Atkins need apply. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-05-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)We're approaching 40 games into the season, and the shock of the O's dismal start is starting to fade, and now I can't help but feel bitter. Wasn't this the year they were supposed to make it to .500, beginning an upward trend for at least a few years? Can you help me make sense of it all?
(tmcghan from Bay Area, CA)
Well, losing Brian Roberts for a couple of months is a major blow, but you're right, there's some disconcerting stuff going on there, such as Adam Jones' chilly start, the odd shipment of Nolan Reimold to Triple-A, and the inexplicable continuing presence of Garret Atkins. Still, Matt Wieters is making progress, as is Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman appears to be coming around at Triple-A. Just remember that a turnaround for an organization with such a back history of losing takes time, and probably a change at the helm -- I'd have bet that Dave Trembley would get the axe before Trey Hillman, and I doubt he'll be around for much longer. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-03-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any thoughts on the Orioles' Chris Tillman? For such a highly regarded prospect last year with a guaranteed job in the bigs, I find there to be surprisingly little buzz about him.
(Aaron from YYZ)
He's a bit overshadowed by Brian Matusz, who seems more big-league ready at the moment and who as a lefty has skills that are a bit more rare. Tillman's 2.1 HR/9 last year suggests he's got some growing pains still ahead of him, but as a long-term play, there's a lot to like. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-03-24 11:00:00 (link to chat)Is it just me or is Chris Tillman or the Orioles something of a forgotten man the young pitcher discussions this year?
(Aaron from YYZ)
"The Forgotten Man" struck me as superficial, but Chris Tillman's future does not. I think he'll be a solid middle of the rotation guy. I don't think his ceiling is quite what Matusz' is, but it's very nice for the Orioles to have that young talent. As for right now, he's gonna struggle a little bit. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-02-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)I read today that the Orioles were thinking of putting Chris Tillman in AAA to start the year. Does this make sense? Thanks for your reply.
(Paul from San Francisco)
I think that's your basic February pre-camp motivational cloud talk of the nobody's-guaranteed-nuthin' variety. That said, Tillman gave up 2.1 HR/9 in his trial last year, and he's got to seriously improve that to survive in the majors. The Orioles aren't winning anything this year, so I don't see the harm in making sure he irons that out in Triple-A rather than burning more service time. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-01-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)Which young dynamic duo would you choose for your team long term? Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland or Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz?
(Chad from Arlington)
Feliz/Holland, I think. The combined upside is higher. (Tommy Bennett)
2009-12-29 15:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat. Here's the order in which I rank the following young SPs in projected career value - Tommy Hanson, Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, Neftali Feliz, Chris Tillman, Mat Latos, Madson Bumgarner. I realize that guessing at career value for young SPs is a crapshoot but do you violently disagree with any aspect of this order?
(KerryFam4 from Atlanta, GA)
I'd have Feliz higher, and I'm not totally convinced the last two belong in this discussion. Porcello might be best, too. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-05-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)With Chris Tillman's good start, do you think we'll see before the ASB?
(NG from NYC)
I think you'll see him, but probably not that soon. Seems like a perfectly good waste of service time to me. (Kevin Goldstein)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Chris Tillman has thrown 11,576 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph), also mixing in a Curve (76mph), Change (84mph) and Cutter (86mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker (91mph).