Biographical

Portrait of Keyvius Sampson

Keyvius Sampson PPadres

Padres Player Cards | Padres Team Audit | Padres Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 23)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
118.3 4.19 1.38 107 4 8 0 0.3
Birth Date1-6-1991
Height6' 0"
Weight225 lbs
Age23 years, 9 months, 16 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.32014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2009 EUG A- 2 1 5.0 2.70 137 .196 .252 .323 .354 .248 .250 93 1.3 0.1 1.3 0.1
2009 PDR Rk 2 1 3.0 4.24 125 .299 .284 .336 .372 .262 .333 110 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0
2010 EUG A- 10 10 43.0 4.95 73 .262 .255 .336 .359 .264 .320 90 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.1
2011 FTW A 24 24 118.0 4.41 105 .222 .251 .322 .372 .263 .266 100 15.7 1.6 15.7 1.6
2012 SAN AA 26 25 122.3 5.02 81 .257 .262 .329 .398 .268 .287 95 3.5 0.4 1.0 0.1
2013 SAN AA 19 18 103.3 3.73 109 .220 .250 .316 .385 .255 .254 95 14.3 1.5 14.4 1.4
2013 TUC AAA 9 9 38.0 6.88 66 .310 .272 .341 .414 .270 .320 108 -1.1 -0.1 -1.9 -0.2
2014 ELP AAA 38 14 91.7 7.89 50 .298 .271 .338 .430 .264 .297 102 -11.6 -1.2 -10.0 -0.8

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2009 EUG A- 0 0 0 2 1 5.0 3 3 5 0 67% .250 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.0 1.20 3.60 1.3 0.1
2009 PDR Rk 0 0 0 2 1 3.0 1 0 3 0 33% .333 3.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.33 3.00 0.2 0.0
2010 EUG A- 3 3 0 10 10 43.0 35 17 58 4 50% .320 7.3 3.6 0.8 12.1 1.21 3.56 0.7 0.1
2011 FTW A 12 3 0 24 24 118.0 81 49 143 8 38% .266 6.2 3.7 0.6 10.9 1.10 2.90 15.7 1.6
2012 SAN AA 8 11 0 26 25 122.3 108 57 122 11 44% .287 7.9 4.2 0.8 9.0 1.35 5.00 1.0 0.1
2013 TUC AAA 2 3 0 9 9 38.0 44 29 25 5 38% .320 10.4 6.9 1.2 5.9 1.92 7.11 -1.9 -0.2
2013 SAN AA 10 4 0 19 18 103.3 74 33 110 9 45% .254 6.4 2.9 0.8 9.6 1.04 2.26 14.4 1.4
2014 ELP AAA 2 5 0 38 14 91.7 91 68 94 19 40% .297 8.9 6.7 1.9 9.2 1.73 6.68 -10.0 -0.8

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 0 d1 year (2014)

Details
  • 1 year (2014). Contract purchased by San Diego 11/20/13. Re-signed by San Diego 3/3/14.
  • Drafted by San Diego 2009 (4-114) (Forest HS, Ocala, Fla.). $0.6M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 8.1 8.5 0 28 28 138.1 102 57 125 14 .258 1.15 3.10 3.37 23.6 2.4
80o 7.4 8.6 0 27 27 131.1 103 57 118 14 .271 1.23 3.47 3.77 15.7 1.6
70o 6.9 8.6 0 26 26 126.1 104 58 114 14 .280 1.28 3.74 4.06 10.5 1.1
60o 6.5 8.6 0 25 25 122.0 104 58 110 14 .288 1.33 3.97 4.32 6.4 0.6
50o 6.2 8.7 0 24 24 118.2 105 58 107 14 .296 1.38 4.20 4.56 2.8 0.3
40o 5.8 8.7 0 23 23 114.4 105 58 104 14 .303 1.43 4.42 4.8 -0.4 -0.0
30o 5.4 8.7 0 22 22 110.4 105 59 100 14 .311 1.48 4.66 5.07 -3.8 -0.4
20o 5 8.6 0 22 22 105.9 105 59 96 14 .321 1.55 4.95 5.38 -7.2 -0.7
10o 4.4 8.6 0 20 20 99.7 105 58 90 14 .334 1.64 5.36 5.83 -11.4 -1.2
Weighted Mean6.28.602424118.01045810714.2941.374.174.533.20.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2015246602121121105611171341.3011.374.014.367.84.58.71.00.4
2016256702121124106601251441.3021.343.894.237.74.39.01.00.6
2017266702121126107581201541.2891.313.894.227.64.18.61.10.6
2018276602020117100531141441.2951.303.824.167.74.18.71.10.7
2019286602121124104531201341.2941.273.603.927.63.98.70.91.1
2020297602121125105531231441.2951.263.593.917.63.88.91.01.1
2021307602121125106521201441.2941.273.613.927.73.88.71.01.1
2022316602121123104501181441.2931.263.583.897.63.78.71.01.1
2023326602020120101461171341.2921.233.443.747.63.48.81.01.3

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
0.12.79.82.89.311.736.3

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 88)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 95 Mauricio Robles 2012 0.00 DNP
2 94 Deck McGuire 2012 0.00 DNP
3 93 Andrew Chafin 2013 0.00 DNP
4 93 Kelvin De La Cruz 2012 0.00 DNP
5 92 Scott Barnes 2011 0.00 DNP
6 92 Brandon Erbe 2011 0.00 DNP
7 91 Jay Jackson 2011 0.00 DNP
8 91 Neil Ramirez 2012 0.00 DNP
9 91 Jake McGee 2010 1.80
10 91 Max Scherzer 2008 3.86
11 91 Andres Santiago 2013 0.00 DNP
12 90 Sean Nolin 2013 40.50
13 90 Donnie Veal 2008 0.00 DNP
14 90 Will Inman 2010 0.00 DNP
15 90 Dan Cortes 2010 5.06
16 90 Jake Odorizzi 2013 3.94
17 90 Jose Cisnero 2012 0.00 DNP
18 90 Kasey Kiker 2011 0.00 DNP
19 90 Casey Crosby 2012 9.49
20 90 Tyson Ross 2010 5.49
21 89 David Bromberg 2011 0.00 DNP
22 89 Trevor Reckling 2012 0.00 DNP
23 89 Alex Colome 2012 0.00 DNP
24 89 Jake Arrieta 2009 0.00 DNP
25 89 Wilmer Font 2013 0.00
26 89 Aaron Miller 2011 0.00 DNP
27 89 Christian Friedrich 2011 0.00 DNP
28 88 Matt Magill 2013 8.13
29 88 Chuck Lofgren 2009 0.00 DNP
30 88 Adam Conley 2013 0.00 DNP
31 88 Graham Stoneburner 2011 0.00 DNP
32 88 Ariel Pena 2012 0.00 DNP
33 88 Carlos Carrasco 2010 4.03
34 88 Michael Stutes 2010 0.00 DNP
35 88 Sammy Solis 2012 0.00 DNP
36 88 Austin Wright 2013 0.00 DNP
37 88 Tyler Thornburg 2012 4.50
38 88 Luis Marte 2010 0.00 DNP
39 88 Carlos Pimentel 2013 0.00 DNP
40 88 Anthony Ranaudo 2013 0.00 DNP
41 88 Kyle Drabek 2011 6.18
42 88 Wily Peralta 2012 2.48
43 87 Tyler Pill 2013 0.00 DNP
44 87 Blake Wood 2009 0.00 DNP
45 87 Justin Grimm 2012 9.00
46 87 Adam Ottavino 2009 0.00 DNP
47 87 Chris Withrow 2012 0.00 DNP
48 87 Maikel Cleto 2012 7.00
49 87 Sean West 2009 5.23
50 87 Juan Oramas 2013 0.00 DNP
51 87 Omar Poveda 2011 0.00 DNP
52 87 Steven Hensley 2010 0.00 DNP
53 87 Alex Cobb 2011 3.59
54 86 John Gast 2012 0.00 DNP
55 86 Erik Johnson 2013 5.20
56 86 Dan Straily 2012 4.35
57 86 Dellin Betances 2011 6.75
58 86 Josh Outman 2008 4.91
59 86 Gio Gonzalez 2009 6.20
60 86 Kevin Slowey 2007 5.26
61 86 Ethan Martin 2012 0.00 DNP
62 86 Rob Rasmussen 2012 0.00 DNP
63 86 Antonio Bastardo 2009 6.85
64 86 Anthony Swarzak 2009 6.56
65 86 Erik Goeddel 2012 0.00 DNP
66 86 Buddy Baumann 2011 0.00 DNP
67 86 Eric Surkamp 2011 6.08
68 86 Lance Lynn 2010 0.00 DNP
69 86 Travis Wood 2010 3.94
70 86 Jeremy Hellickson 2010 3.47
71 86 Tyler Jones 2013 0.00 DNP
72 86 Nick Additon 2011 0.00 DNP
73 86 Frank Garces 2013 0.00 DNP
74 86 David Rollins 2013 0.00 DNP
75 86 Chris Reed 2013 0.00 DNP
76 86 Jarrod Parker 2012 3.52
77 86 Jordan Zimmermann 2009 5.03
78 86 Chad Bettis 2012 0.00 DNP
79 85 Garrett Olson 2007 7.79
80 85 Chris Mason 2008 0.00 DNP
81 85 Bradley Holt 2010 0.00 DNP
82 85 Alex Torres 2011 4.50
83 85 Rudy Owens 2011 0.00 DNP
84 85 Tyler Wilson 2013 0.00 DNP
85 85 Tyler Herron 2010 0.00 DNP
86 85 Eric Jokisch 2013 0.00 DNP
87 85 Forrest Snow 2012 0.00 DNP
88 85 Jess Todd 2009 7.66
89 85 Wade LeBlanc 2008 8.02
90 85 Brad Hand 2013 3.05
91 85 Dimasther Delgado 2012 0.00 DNP
92 85 Phillippe Aumont 2012 3.68
93 85 Jeremy Bleich 2010 0.00 DNP
94 85 Anthony Capra 2010 0.00 DNP
95 85 Michael O'Brien 2013 0.00 DNP
96 85 Deryk Hooker 2012 0.00 DNP
97 85 Chris Dwyer 2011 0.00 DNP
98 85 Josh Lindblom 2010 0.00 DNP
99 85 Brett Oberholtzer 2013 3.27
100 85 Joe Wieland 2013 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Sampson skipped a level after enjoying a strong full-season debut in the Midwest League in 2011. The aggressive promotion was intended to challenge Sampson and place him in an environment where he could develop his breaking ball. The results were mixed. Three times he worked six or more scoreless innings, but five times he allowed five runs or more (although only one of those came after June 1). His ERA away from pitcher-friendly Wolff Stadium was nearly four runs higher than at home. That he missed so many bats at Double-A is encouraging, but Sampson remains a work in progress whose ultimate role and timetable are uncertain.
2012 Sampson started his 2011 with a bang, retiring all 18 batters he faced on Opening Day in his full-season debut. He struck out 10 in that game en route to 143 on the season, third best in the Midwest League. Sampson features a mid-90s fastball but is smallish and, considering he's had shoulder problems in the past, there are concerns about how he will handle heavier workloads. The good news is that he survived the season without any major incidents. Beyond staying healthy, Sampson must continue to improve his command and secondary offerings. With the sudden organizational depth in pitching, he will advance one level at a time and should arrive in San Diego by the second half of 2014. There is plenty of upside here, but patience and health are keys to his development.
2011 Keyvius Sampson has a powerful arm that belies his small stature. He was held back in spring training, but dominant when on the mound; the right-hander sits around 95 but can touch 97 with his fastball, which helped him whiff over 12 batters per inning at Low-A. Elbow soreness was a problem.

BP Articles

Keyvius Sampson is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Spring Training Games of March 11Jeff Moore2014-03-12
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Spring Training Games of March 5Jeff Moore2014-03-06
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Relief Pitcher ProspectsBen Carsley2014-03-05
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: San Diego Padres Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2014-01-13
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: AFL Recap for Games of October 29Jeff Moore2013-10-30
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 8, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of July 19-21Zach Mortimer2013-07-22
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, July 1Zach Mortimer2013-07-02
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, June 26Zach Mortimer2013-06-27
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of May 14Kevin Goldstein2012-05-15
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Surprising Minor League AssignmentsKevin Goldstein2012-04-06
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: NL West Prospect PreviewKevin Goldstein2012-04-06
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Top Nine High-Ceiling Prospect RotationsKevin Goldstein2012-02-21
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: San Diego Padres Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2011-12-13
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of August 25Kevin Goldstein2011-08-26
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of July 31Kevin Goldstein2011-08-01
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of July 18Kevin Goldstein2011-07-19
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of June 14Kevin Goldstein2011-06-15
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of April 26Kevin Goldstein2011-04-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Scoresheet Supplemental Draft TipsRob McQuown2011-04-15
Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of April 13Kevin Goldstein2011-04-14
Future Shock: Opening Day MadnessKevin Goldstein2011-04-08
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: San Diego Padres Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2011-02-01
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday Ten PackKevin Goldstein2010-08-09
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday Ten PackKevin Goldstein2010-06-21


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2013-09-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Keyvius Sampson the guy who dominated AA, or the guy who got killed in AAA (approx. 1/1 K/BB) both before and after his stint in AA?
(edwardarthur from Illinois)
Keyvius has one of the coolest names in the minors, so he has that going for him. He is both the guy who dominated AA and the one who struggled in AAA - Sampson has a powerful delivery that he struggles to repeat, and though he was able to ride his stuff in AA, it appears that AAA hitters waited him out. Looking at the game logs, he never walked more than 3 batters across 18 starts in AA, but he walked 4 or more in 4 of his 9 starts in AAA.

Sampson is an example of why pitchers with great momentum get a bad rap. It is more difficult to harness the higher levels of kinetic energy, but the key is finding each pitcher's ideal timing pattern. Right now he is too fast into foot strike, and his signature asks for a slightly slower delivery. Most pitchers are too slow, however, and though they can stabilize balance a bit easier, they also open up a larger window of time for the delivery to fall off-track. His solution lies somewhere in the middle.

On the jukebox: Megadeth, "Train of Consequences" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-08-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Higher ceiling: burch smith or keyvius sampson?
(Matt from San Diego )
I wrote up Smith very strong early in the season, when he was holding 92-96 mph and touching 98 and showing plus command. He's had trouble holding that same velo and staying on the mound since. So I'll go with Keyvius Sampson, although neither one is a surefire MLB starter. I'm really interested to see which Burch Smith shows up in spring training 2014 – the dominant early-season Smith of this year, or the MLB version that was sitting 89-92 mph by the third inning. (Jason Cole)
2013-08-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)David Holmberg or Keyvius Sampson for you ?
(Ernie from Houston)
Holmberg. (Paul Sporer)
2011-02-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Jason, I've never contributed a chat question, but I wanted to tell you I enjoy the podcast, especially when I listen with a Coca-Cola con azucar from my 30 refrigerator. As for baseball, I know you focus on the Rangers in ST, but I was wondering if you noticed anyone from another Arizona team, the Padres, who you really like as a prospect? Someone other than the obvious top-5 guys like Decker, Castro and the players obtained from the Red Sox.
(Padre from South America)
In AZ, I spend a lot of time watching the Rangers/Royals, but I also enjoy watching the Padres, DOdgers, Giants, and Mariners. I love watching Tate on the field. He's not pretty during game action, but he gives you a ton to dream on. Superstar level tools and about a .02% chance of full actualization. I think Jedd Gyorko is a player to watch just because of his name. Keyvius Sampson is another great name, but he also has a really good arm. (Jason Parks)
2011-01-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Best bet to make big 2011 rankings jump... A - Keyvius Sampson, B - Luke Jackson, C - Taijuan Walker D - Madison Younginer
(Mike from WI)
C. (Kevin Goldstein)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.

 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Keyvius Sampson has thrown 184 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2013 and 2014, including pitches thrown in Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (93mph), also mixing in a Change (85mph) and Slider (87mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (75mph).