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2013 Projections (seasonal age 24) - Rest of Season Projections
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Standard
| YEAR | TEAM | AGE | G | GS | IP | IP-SP | IP-RP | W | L | SV | BS | QS | BQS | PA | H | R | ER | HR | TB | BB | UBB | HBP | SO | ERA | FIP | FRA | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | DET | 20 | 31 | 31 | 170.7 | 170.7 | 0.0 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 720 | 176 | 81 | 75 | 23 | 274 | 52 | 52 | 3 | 89 | 3.96 | 4.82 | 5.78 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2010 | DET | 21 | 27 | 27 | 162.7 | 162.7 | 0.0 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 700 | 188 | 96 | 89 | 18 | 273 | 38 | 36 | 7 | 84 | 4.92 | 4.28 | 5.19 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| 2011 | DET | 22 | 31 | 31 | 182.0 | 182.0 | 0.0 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 784 | 210 | 103 | 96 | 18 | 313 | 46 | 45 | 8 | 104 | 4.75 | 4.09 | 4.60 | 14.5 | 1.3 |
| 2012 | DET | 23 | 31 | 31 | 176.3 | 176.3 | 0.0 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 783 | 226 | 101 | 90 | 16 | 331 | 44 | 41 | 6 | 107 | 4.59 | 3.86 | 4.82 | 11.4 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | DET | 24 | 8 | 7 | 38.0 | 36.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 159 | 42 | 25 | 25 | 6 | 68 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 27 | 5.92 | 4.45 | 5.93 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| Career | 128 | 127 | 729.7 | 727.7 | 2.0 | 50 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 1 | 3146 | 842 | 406 | 375 | 81 | 1259 | 188 | 182 | 25 | 411 | 4.63 | 4.27 | 5.12 | 27.2 | 2.6 | ||
Advanced
'opp' stats - quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.| YEAR | Team | Lg | G | GS | IP | FRA | FRA+ | TAv | oppAVG | oppOBP | oppSLG | oppTAv | BABIP | PPF | PVORP | PWARP | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | LAK | A+ | 24 | 24 | 125.0 | 5.18 | 95 | .235 | .265 | .336 | .393 | .261 | .270 | 105 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | DET | MLB | 31 | 31 | 170.7 | 5.78 | 75 | .256 | .276 | .344 | .437 | .274 | .277 | 96 | -1.7 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2010 | DET | MLB | 27 | 27 | 162.7 | 5.19 | 87 | .263 | .266 | .332 | .416 | .269 | .307 | 103 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| 2010 | TOL | AAA | 4 | 4 | 28.0 | 4.60 | 97 | .221 | .280 | .348 | .431 | .261 | .296 | 99 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | DET | MLB | 31 | 31 | 182.0 | 4.60 | 99 | .272 | .264 | .325 | .412 | .268 | .316 | 102 | 13.8 | 1.5 | 14.5 | 1.3 |
| 2012 | DET | MLB | 31 | 31 | 176.3 | 4.82 | 95 | .280 | .266 | .330 | .427 | .271 | .344 | 104 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 11.4 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | DET | MLB | 8 | 7 | 38.0 | 5.93 | 70 | .269 | .258 | .327 | .426 | .272 | .308 | 102 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| Career | MLB | 127 | 729.7 | 5.21 | 86 | .268 | .268 | .332 | .423 | .271 | .312 | 76 | 14.3 | 1.5 | 15.8 | 1.2 | ||
Statistics For All Levels
| Year | Team | Lg | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | GB% | BABIP | H/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | LAK | A+ | 8 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 125.0 | 116 | 33 | 72 | 7 | 66% | .270 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 1.19 | 2.66 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2009 | DET | MLB | 14 | 9 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 170.7 | 176 | 52 | 89 | 23 | 55% | .277 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 1.34 | 3.96 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2010 | DET | MLB | 10 | 12 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 162.7 | 188 | 38 | 84 | 18 | 51% | .307 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 1.39 | 4.92 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| 2010 | TOL | AAA | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 28.0 | 24 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 65% | .296 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 1.21 | 3.21 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | DET | MLB | 14 | 9 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 182.0 | 210 | 46 | 104 | 18 | 54% | .316 | 10.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5.1 | 1.41 | 4.75 | 14.5 | 1.3 |
| 2012 | DET | MLB | 10 | 12 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 176.3 | 226 | 44 | 107 | 16 | 54% | .344 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 1.53 | 4.59 | 11.4 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | DET | MLB | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 38.0 | 42 | 8 | 27 | 6 | 56% | .308 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 6.4 | 1.32 | 5.92 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
Injury History beta
| Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury | Severity | Surgery Date | Reaggravation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-03-17 | 2009-03-21 | Camp | 4 | 0 | Right | Fingers | Laceration | Fingernail | - |
Compensation
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BP Articles
Rick Porcello is referenced in the following articles.
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BP Chats
| Date | Question | Answer |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-12-14 13:00:00 | In your opinion, do you think Jacob Turner is the real deal, or Rick Porcello 2.0? (Anello from Chicago) | Rick Porcello 2.0 isn't exactly a bad thing, but I get the point. I think Turner's the real deal. (Jason Parks) |
| 2011-09-02 14:00:00 | Would Rick Porcello, at age 22, fall into the same category that you just put Jeremy Hellickson in? I.E. with his stuff he needs time to learn, even after 3 seasons? Thanks. (lemppi from Iowa) | That's a fascinating way to look at things, and while I'm not totally convinced, I think it's possible to think you are onto something. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2011-06-14 13:00:00 | Just recently made a trade in one of my fantasy leagues. I get Mark Melancon and Brandon Lyon, but I give up Rick Porcello. I plan to have Melancon and Lyon replace Matt Guerrier and Phil Coke, and I will replace Porcello with James McDonald. Thoughts? (Big Bob from Cleveland) | My first thought is that the Yankees might like to have Melancon right about now. Sounds like a plan to me, though I know the fantasy cognoscenti always say it's easy to find saves. (Ben Lindbergh) |
| 2010-12-20 13:00:00 | Cahill put up some gaudy stats last season, but his peripherals weren't strong. I think he had 118 Ks. How does he become a true front-line starter instead of a guy who performs well because of the stadium he pitches in? (Tom from Madison) | WAYYYY too early to tell. Some pitchers are able to succeed in spite of poorer peripherals. Others aren't. It's easy to think that poor peripherals means he will be less effective next season, but very rarely do people consider that he could improve those peripherals. Rick Porcello hasn't. Maybe Cahill will. (Eric Seidman) |
| 2010-12-14 13:00:00 | How Concerned should Tigers fans be about Rick Porcello's drop in K's last year? He's probably not the next Justin Vernlander after all, but is he the next Jeremy Bonderman? (DetroitDale from Tallahassee, FL) | He ought to be more durable, but Porcello has to prove he's more than a one-trick pony, otherwise nobody's going to be swinging and missing. A great sinker is a thing of beauty, but if everyone knows it's coming... (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2010-12-02 13:00:00 | A half decade from today, who's had the better 5 seasons? Zach Greinke, or Rick Porcello? (singledigit from San Diego) | This is the sort of question that might very well come back to haunt someone, especially given the possibility of injury. Right now, though, I'd say Greinke, and it's not particularly close. I'm really worried about Porcello's inability to miss bats, and while the groundballs are nice, he needs to strike more guys out to be much more than a third starter. He struck out more after his stint in the minors last year, but not enough to allay my concerns unless it was the first step of a major trend. (Ken Funck) |
| 2010-11-11 13:00:00 | By the time they both hit about 32-yrs old....who has had the better career, Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello? (lemppi from Ankeny, IA) | Scherzer. He's already shown that he can strike out major league hitters, and that is the best predictor of future success. There's no doubt that Porcello has crazy upside but he's not getting whiffs yet, and so I have to play the odds and say Scherzer. (Matt Swartz) |
| 2010-11-02 13:00:00 | Rick Porcello -- can he become a third ace in the Tigers rotation, or does the last two years lower his ceiling somewhat? (Jim Osterberg from Detroit Rock City) | I have to be careful here. I was once assaulted with a barrage of mean-spirited questions when I said that I thought Kershaw would become an ace and Porcello would disappoint about two years ago I think. In short, no, I don't think he will become a third ace. I think he could be a really good #4-type pitcher with his current repertoire and "stuff" but he doesn't strike anyone out, and I haven't seen enough to indicate that is going to change moving forward. This doesn't mean I think he is bad, or that he couldn't become better, but that I still just do not see it yet. The same thing happened with Gavin Floyd, though, who looked a bit lost before turning it on. Maybe Porcello follows a similar path. (Eric Seidman) |
| 2010-09-21 13:00:00 | Did Rick Porcello's career effectively end as a potential ace last year when he was worked like a rented mule? (RhubarbOrDeath from Portland) | I think his decision to stick with this two-seamer is holding him back a lot more than that. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-06-07 18:30:00 | Rank these big name, big time HS Righthand Pitchers: Josh Beckett, Rick Porcello, Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon. (Cult of Basebaal from Pasadena of Los Angeles) | Beckett, Taillon, Porcello, Cole. Love them all. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2010-05-05 13:00:00 | What do you do with young Tigers' pitcher Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello going forward? (nschaef from CT) | I wasn't high on Porcello this year to begin with, though I don't mean he doesn't have a bright future. I just mean that I figured there would be some struggles this year (for reference, when asked about this before, I felt Brett Anderson was much further along in his development). He's going to be great, but I don't think that word applies to 2010.
Scherzer's velocity seems to be down a bit, but it's early so I'm having a hard time getting too worked up about it. I'm sticking with him in my AL-only league (though I may have to deal him for an outfielder given my previously referenced situation. Le sigh). (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-01-21 13:00:00 | My last slot in a deep keeper league looks like it's coming down to Dexter Fowler and Rick Porcello. I usually prefer the position player, but Porcello could be special. At the same time, both might have another year or two of development before they really get going. Preference for 2010? Long-term? (Rob from Alaska) | I would normally prefer the position player too, but Porcello's last two months were pretty impressive. I just wish his strikeouts would jump up, but it will happen with time. He could be a beast in the second half of 2010... (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-01-13 13:00:00 | Who is the better bet for a long and effective career?: Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson or Tommy Hanson. (Scott from New Jersey) | Tommy Hanson. I really think he has dominant, No. 1-ace stuff, though Porcello and Anderson both have good chances of enjoying outstanding careers, too. (John Perrotto) |
| 2009-12-29 15:00:00 | Thanks for the chat. Here's the order in which I rank the following young SPs in projected career value - Tommy Hanson, Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, Neftali Feliz, Chris Tillman, Mat Latos, Madson Bumgarner. I realize that guessing at career value for young SPs is a crapshoot but do you violently disagree with any aspect of this order? (KerryFam4 from Atlanta, GA) | I'd have Feliz higher, and I'm not totally convinced the last two belong in this discussion. Porcello might be best, too. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-10-23 16:00:00 | Did Porcello start in Minny impress u-I know u think he is chopped liver compared to Brett. (JOESAV from ny) | Let me try and put an end to this. I don't dislike Rick Porcello. At all. There is a definitive middle ground between thinking someone will be a star and thinking someone will be a bust. I personally think Porcello is and will be a very good major league pitcher but I just did not get the same feeling watching him that I did watching Kershaw last year or Anderson this year. That doesn't mean I dislike him. I'm just not as high on him as others and not convinced that he is going to turn into a perennial all star or Cy Young Award candidate. That's it. End of story. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I don't have anything against the guy. (Eric Seidman) |
| 2009-10-13 14:00:00 | I asked Kevin and he demured, I'll try you: Rick Porcello or Tommy Hanson? (SC from Minneapolis) | Kevin's wise to demur; I'm not, so I'll go with Hanson, having already tipped my hand here. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2009-10-06 13:30:00 | Tigers fan here. Talk me down from the ledge... please? (David from Winston Salem) | I'd love to but I can't do it in good faith. I think it's going to be awfully hard to win in the Metrodome, though I did have a chance to visit with Rick Porcello earlier this year and came away very impressed with the poise and maturity he shows for such a young guy. (John Perrotto) |
| 2009-10-06 13:30:00 | Your pick for today? Your 4 picks in this round? I'm going to say Twins then Yanks, Angels, Cardinals, and Rockies. (GrinnellSteve from Iowa) | I'm going against all logic and laws of momentum today and picking the Tigers. I have a lot of faith in Rick Porcello. As far as my first-round picks, I'll go Yankees, Red Sox, Rockies and Dodgers. (John Perrotto) |
| 2009-09-02 13:00:00 | porcello walks too many? and joba doesn't? you can really make a straight faced arguement that joba is a better pitcher right now? just looked at the numbers, and the 20 year old kid looks better (ct tiger from ct) | Rick Porcello is currently striking out 4.97 batter per nine innings, a rate that Paul Byrd would even laugh at. Walking 2.94 per nine is nice, but not by comparison to the strikeout rates. He has a 56% GB rate meaning he is very dependent on the team's defense. Joba is not in the same boat, and I feel that it is more likely Joba decreases his walks than Porcello increases the whiffs. (Eric Seidman) |
| 2009-07-13 14:00:00 | Most believe the Tigers need a bat. Does one bat solve enough of their issues? Or does getting a rotation piece help fortify the formula of pitching/defense that has worked so far? Thanks. (lemppi from Ankeny, IA) | That may depend on what they can get from Rick Porcello the rest of the way. Do they have three starters now or two? And is last year's Armando Galarraga anywhere to be found? On the flip side, how much would a healthy Carlos Guillen change the mix? Finally, what do they have to trade? Throw it all in a hat, and I think they'll be pretty quiet. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-05-12 13:00:00 | Are you in the camp of "Make Joba a reliever" or "Keep him as a starter"? It seems that right now, he's just not making it through five innings with out a lot of unnecessary difficulty. (Tim from Tampa, FL) | Then again, he's leading Yankees starters in ERA. There is some difficulty right now, but until he shows he can't worth through it, he's a starter. Besides, with Hughes in the majors, Wang wounded, and Ian Kennedy having an aneurysm cut out of his armpit, who should take over for Joba? Red Ruffing?
Sometimes, just to tease me, when I say to my wife, "Matt Scherzer had a good start tonight" or Rick Porcello, or Chad Billingsley, she'll say, "But he'd be more valuable in the bullpen." I have a great wife. Only people who truly love you care enough to give you that kind of grief. (Steven Goldman) |
| 2009-02-16 14:00:00 | Question 1: In conclusion, Kevin, which system more closely resembles the Great dust bowl: The Astros or the Tigers?
Question 2: What has Engel Beltre shown to merit inclusion on the list that you haven't seen from Martin Perez?
(Or from Dallas) | 1. At least the Tigers have a shining oasis in Rick Porcello. 2. Utterly ridiculous tools. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2008-10-09 14:00:00 | So which prospect SPs take the place of Price, Kershaw, etc. as the next big thing? (Jake from Dallas) | Well, I don't think we're done seeing if those guys get over the hump yet, particularly considering Price has just 14 innings under his belt.
IANKG (I am not Kevin Goldstein) but looking over his Top 100 update from earlier in the summer, Rick Porcello (Detroit), Neftali Feliz (Texas) and Chris Tillman (Baltimore) look like the highly-ranked guys who moved up without losing eligibility. Beyond that, I'm out of my league. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2008-06-04 16:00:00 | Without even throwing a pitch, you had both David Price and Rick Porcello in the top 12 prospects in all of baseball. Do you see any of this years' draft picks making it into the top 10 in similar fashion? (ericmilburn from San Francisco) | Actually, no. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2008-03-03 13:00:00 | Kevin,
Based on your comments in today's Monday Ten Pack, does your gut tell you that Rick Porcello will outrank David Price on next year's prospect list? (DB from New York) | Not especially. I mean it wouldn't shock me if he did, but you're looking at the opinion of one scout, and you are talking about two guys who are among the elite arms in the minors, so it's hard to see why one of them is going to suddenly drop. (Kevin Goldstein) |
BP Roundtables
| Date | Roundtable Name | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2009-06-09 14:30:00 | 2009 Draft Coverage | Baltimore eyed young pitching all along, but in the end, they decided that the top guys weren't worth the coin as they take Matt Hobgood, A guy most people saw as a mid-to-late first round kind of talent. If you see the video on MLB, you can see why conditioning could end up an issue. MLB people talking about how he moved up, but there's only one reason -- when teams called him, he didn't mention the name Rick Porcello. (Kevin Goldstein) |
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