Biographical

Portrait of Greg Holland

Greg Holland PRoyals

Royals Player Cards | Royals Team Audit | Royals Depth Chart

2016 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 30)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
42.3 3.30 1.19 51 2 1 29 0.5
Birth Date11-20-1985
Height5' 10"
Weight205 lbs
Age30 years, 8 months, 7 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2.12012
2.52013
2.12014
0.52015
0.52016
+proj
DRA-Based WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA. (For previous card version with FAIR_RA, click here.)
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA WARP
2010 KCA MLB 15 0 18.7 23 8 23 3 .249 112 11.1 3.9 1.4 11.1 36% .377 .290 1.66 3.96 6.75 92 4.04 0.2
2011 KCA MLB 46 0 60.0 37 19 74 3 .267 107 5.5 2.9 0.5 11.1 45% .250 .192 0.93 2.24 1.80 67 2.27 1.8
2012 KCA MLB 67 0 67.0 58 34 91 2 .264 102 7.8 4.6 0.3 12.2 47% .346 .246 1.37 2.24 2.96 71 2.15 2.1
2013 KCA MLB 68 0 67.0 40 18 103 3 .268 101 5.4 2.4 0.4 13.8 40% .282 .184 0.87 1.39 1.21 49 1.47 2.5
2014 KCA MLB 65 0 62.3 37 20 90 3 .266 101 5.3 2.9 0.4 13.0 49% .268 .185 0.91 1.86 1.44 61 1.72 2.1
2015 KCA MLB 48 0 44.7 39 26 49 2 .256 100 7.9 5.2 0.4 9.9 51% .319 .248 1.46 3.24 3.83 95 3.78 0.5
CareerMLB3090319.723412543016.2631036.63.50.512.145%.301.2161.122.232.42692.289.2

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA
2007 IDA Rk 22 0 33.7 28 15 37 1 .261 94 7.5 4.0 0.3 9.9 61% .309 .227 1.28 3.48 3.47
2008 WIL A+ 32 7 84.3 70 35 96 4 .261 94 7.5 3.7 0.4 10.2 43% .299 .249 1.25 3.07 3.42
2009 NWA AA 29 0 45.3 46 19 49 2 .251 115 9.1 3.8 0.4 9.7 48% .355 .232 1.43 2.93 3.18
2009 OMA AAA 6 0 9.0 12 5 1 2 .287 80 12.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 57% .303 .354 1.89 8.12 7.00
2010 KCA MLB 15 0 18.7 23 8 23 3 .249 112 11.1 3.9 1.4 11.1 36% .377 .290 1.66 3.96 6.75
2010 OMA AAA 36 0 56.7 40 30 60 3 .267 98 6.3 4.8 0.5 9.5 46% .248 .214 1.23 3.74 3.81
2010 LAG Wnt 14 0 19.0 13 9 35 0 .000 6.2 4.3 0.0 16.6 0% .361 .000 1.16 0.72 2.37
2011 KCA MLB 46 0 60.0 37 19 74 3 .267 107 5.5 2.9 0.5 11.1 45% .250 .192 0.93 2.24 1.80
2011 OMA AAA 13 0 21.7 13 11 27 1 .267 119 5.4 4.6 0.4 11.2 65% .255 .191 1.11 3.41 2.08
2012 KCA MLB 67 0 67.0 58 34 91 2 .264 102 7.8 4.6 0.3 12.2 47% .346 .246 1.37 2.24 2.96
2012 NWA AA 2 2 2.0 1 0 3 0 .289 106 4.5 0.0 0.0 13.5 75% .250 .105 0.50 0.28 0.00
2013 KCA MLB 68 0 67.0 40 18 103 3 .268 101 5.4 2.4 0.4 13.8 40% .282 .184 0.87 1.39 1.21
2014 KCA MLB 65 0 62.3 37 20 90 3 .266 101 5.3 2.9 0.4 13.0 49% .268 .185 0.91 1.86 1.44
2015 KCA MLB 48 0 44.7 39 26 49 2 .256 100 7.9 5.2 0.4 9.9 51% .319 .248 1.46 3.24 3.83

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2010 309 0.4693 0.4628 0.7273 0.6483 0.2988 0.8723 0.4490 0.2727
2011 935 0.4770 0.4717 0.6327 0.5852 0.3681 0.8352 0.3389 0.3673
2012 1125 0.4738 0.4756 0.6897 0.6510 0.3176 0.7925 0.5000 0.3103
2013 1059 0.4816 0.4599 0.6099 0.5725 0.3552 0.7397 0.4154 0.3901
2014 970 0.4485 0.4351 0.6232 0.5356 0.3533 0.7897 0.4180 0.3768
2015 712 0.4551 0.4537 0.6625 0.5833 0.3454 0.8201 0.4403 0.3375
Career51100.46830.46010.64860.59120.34410.79750.4260.3514

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-09-04 2014-09-12 DTD 8 7 Left Arm Tightness Triceps -
2012-04-21 2012-05-12 15-DL 21 18 Left Trunk Stress Fracture Ribs - -
2009-08-14 2009-09-08 Minors 25 0 Not Disclosed -
2008-05-26 2008-06-19 Minors 24 0 Not Disclosed -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2015 KCA $8,250,000
2014 KCA $4,675,000
2013 KCA $539,500
2012 KCA $497,150
YearsDescriptionSalary
6 yrPrevious$13,961,650
6 yrTotal$13,961,650

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
5 y 28 dBoras Corp.1 year/$8.25M (2015)

Details
  • 1 year/$8.25M (2015). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/13/15 (avoided arbitration, $9M-$6.65M). Award bonuses, including $0.1M for reliever of the year ($50,000 for second or third place). Assignment bonus: $0.1M if traded. Non-tendered by Kansas City 12/2/15.
  • 1 year/$4.675M (2014). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/12/14 (avoided arbitration, $5.2M-$4.1M). Award bonus: $50,000 for All-Star selection.
  • 1 year/$0.5395M (2013). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/20/13. Award bonuses, including $50,000 for All-Star selection.
  • 1 year/$497,150 (2012). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/22/12.
  • 1 year (2011). Re-signed by Kansas City 3/11.
  • 1 year (2010). Contract purchased by Kansas City 7/29/10.
  • Drafted by Kansas City 2007 (10-306) (Western Carolina). $50,000 signing bonus.

2016 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/15/2015 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 3.4 1.7 46.8 60 0 58.7 38 18 72 5 .247 0.96 2.03 2.21 17.0 1.9
80o 3 1.4 41.6 54 0 52.9 37 18 64 5 .261 1.03 2.41 2.62 12.9 1.4
70o 2.8 1.3 38.1 50 0 48.8 36 17 59 5 .271 1.09 2.68 2.92 10.2 1.1
60o 2.5 1.1 35.1 47 0 45.3 35 17 55 5 .280 1.14 2.92 3.18 8.1 0.9
50o 2.3 1 32.4 43 0 42.2 34 16 51 4 .288 1.19 3.15 3.42 6.4 0.7
40o 2.1 0.9 29.8 40 0 39.1 32 16 48 4 .297 1.24 3.38 3.67 4.9 0.5
30o 1.9 0.8 27.1 37 0 35.9 31 15 44 4 .306 1.29 3.63 3.94 3.4 0.4
20o 1.7 0.7 24.1 33 0 32.2 29 14 39 4 .316 1.36 3.92 4.26 1.9 0.2
10o 1.4 0.5 20.1 28 0 27.2 27 13 33 3 .330 1.45 4.34 4.72 0.2 0.0
Weighted Mean2.313243041.63316514.2861.183.123.396.50.7

2016 Rest-of-Season Forecast

Last Update: 7/27/2016 10:21 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 3.2 1.6 46.3 60 0 58.7 38 18 71 5 .246 0.96 2.26 2.55 13.7 1.5
80o 2.9 1.4 41.2 54 0 52.9 37 18 64 5 .260 1.03 2.61 2.94 10.1 1.1
70o 2.6 1.2 37.7 50 0 48.8 36 17 59 5 .270 1.09 2.87 3.23 7.7 0.8
60o 2.4 1.1 34.7 47 0 45.3 35 17 55 5 .279 1.14 3.09 3.48 5.9 0.6
50o 2.2 1 32.1 43 0 42.2 34 16 51 4 .287 1.19 3.31 3.72 4.4 0.5
40o 2 0.9 29.5 40 0 39.1 32 16 47 4 .295 1.24 3.52 3.96 3.1 0.3
30o 1.8 0.8 26.9 37 0 35.9 31 15 43 4 .304 1.29 3.75 4.22 1.8 0.2
20o 1.6 0.7 23.9 33 0 32.2 29 14 39 4 .315 1.36 4.03 4.53 0.5 0.1
10o 1.3 0.5 20 28 0 27.3 27 13 33 3 .329 1.45 4.42 4.97 -0.9 -0.1
Weighted Mean2.2131.743041.63316504.2851.183.283.694.50.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
27% 45% 32% 8% 94%

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2016 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201731314663061502476849.2921.213.423.867.33.511.21.20.6
201832314865063522577849.2931.223.423.867.43.611.01.10.7
201933314055053452162749.2931.253.594.057.63.610.51.20.4
202034313953052442062649.2971.243.503.957.73.510.81.00.5
202135213345044391752649.2991.283.744.228.03.510.71.20.3
202236213142041361648549.2991.283.654.118.03.510.61.10.3
202337213244043371650549.2971.243.574.027.83.410.51.10.4
202438213243042371649549.2981.263.654.127.93.410.51.10.3
202539212940039351545549.3011.273.694.168.03.410.31.10.3

Long-Term Forecast Based on RoS PECOTA (Beyond the 2016 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201731314561059492371749.2931.233.413.847.53.510.91.10.6
201832314966064522577749.2901.203.343.767.33.510.81.00.7
201933314054053452059649.2921.233.493.937.73.410.11.00.5
202034314459058482168649.2921.203.353.787.53.310.60.90.7
202135213548046421853649.3001.293.734.218.23.510.31.20.3
202236212738037321441549.2971.253.664.137.93.410.11.20.3
202337212939038331443449.2941.233.433.877.73.310.10.90.4
202438213547046401751549.2971.243.543.997.83.310.01.00.4
202539213041040361645549.2971.293.734.218.03.610.01.10.2

Upside By Year

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PEAK 5
24.721.123.81819.717.2107.2

Previous Year Preseason Upside By Year

Yr Proj 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PEAK 5
201524.721.123.81819.717.2107.2

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 71)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 85 Michael Gonzalez 2008 5.61
2 84 Francisco Rodriguez 2012 4.62
3 84 David Robertson 2015 3.84
4 82 Scott Williamson 2006 5.95
5 82 Hong-Chih Kuo 2012 0.00 DNP
6 80 Jose Valverde 2008 3.50
7 80 Carlos Marmol 2013 4.78
8 79 Tyler Clippard 2015 3.17
9 79 Jonathan Papelbon 2011 3.08
10 78 B.J. Ryan 2006 1.49
11 78 Brian Wilson 2012 9.00
12 78 Frank Francisco 2010 3.93
13 78 Rafael Soriano 2010 2.02
14 77 Sergio Romo 2013 2.98
15 76 Joakim Soria 2014 3.86
16 76 Rich Gossage 1982 2.32
17 76 Brian Fuentes 2006 3.44
18 75 Billy Wagner 2002 2.52
19 75 John Wetteland 1997 2.49
20 75 Sergio Santos 2014 9.43
21 74 Troy Percival 2000 4.86
22 74 Brad Lidge 2007 3.90
23 74 Ryne Duren 1959 2.11
24 74 Sean Marshall 2013 2.61
25 74 Andrew Bailey 2014 0.00 DNP
26 73 Jim Kern 1979 2.33
27 73 Bryan Harvey 1993 1.83
28 73 Luke Gregerson 2014 2.49
29 73 Rob Murphy 1990 7.42
30 72 Lee Smith 1988 3.76
31 72 Duane Ward 1994 0.00 DNP
32 72 Bobby Jenks 2011 6.89
33 72 John Axford 2013 4.43
34 71 Mike MacDougal 2007 7.87
35 71 Mike Jackson 1995 2.39
36 71 Damaso Marte 2005 4.17
37 71 Robb Nen 2000 2.05
38 71 Juan Cruz 2009 6.08
39 71 C.J. Wilson 2011 3.59
40 71 Joel Hanrahan 2012 2.72
41 70 Jason Frasor 2008 4.37
42 70 Paul Shuey 2001 4.14
43 70 Derrick Turnbow 2008 15.63
44 70 Matt Mantei 2004 12.66
45 70 Michael Wuertz 2009 2.97
46 70 Jonathan Broxton 2014 2.30
47 70 Rob Dibble 1994 0.00 DNP
48 70 Bruce Sutter 1983 4.53
49 70 Pedro Strop 2015 3.18
50 69 Juan Rincon 2009 7.12
51 69 Darren O'Day 2013 2.47
52 69 Kyle Farnsworth 2006 4.64
53 69 Jeff Nelson 1997 3.66
54 69 Keith Foulke 2003 2.18
55 69 Kevin Jepsen 2015 2.45
56 69 Will Ohman 2008 4.14
57 68 Greg McMichael 1997 3.59
58 68 Sean Burnett 2013 0.93
59 68 Jeff Montgomery 1992 2.50
60 68 Fernando Rodney 2007 4.80
61 68 Scott Linebrink 2007 4.22
62 68 Jesse Crain 2012 2.44
63 68 Francisco Cordero 2005 3.65
64 68 Jason Motte 2012 2.88
65 68 Jason Isringhausen 2003 3.00
66 68 Ramon Ramirez 2012 4.66
67 68 Justin Duchscherer 2008 2.86
68 67 Felix Rodriguez 2003 3.10
69 67 Mark Melancon 2015 2.58
70 67 Heath Bell 2008 3.58
71 67 Mel Rojas 1997 4.96
72 67 Hoyt Wilhelm 1953 3.95
73 67 Tony Watson 2015 2.03
74 67 Octavio Dotel 2004 4.01
75 66 Eric Gagne 2006 0.00
76 66 Dick Radatz 1967 7.86
77 66 Willie Hernandez 1985 3.38
78 66 Ugueth Urbina 2004 4.67
79 66 Nick Masset 2012 0.00 DNP
80 66 Armando Benitez 2003 3.33
81 66 Joe Nathan 2005 2.83
82 66 Jeff Reardon 1986 4.35
83 66 Joaquin Benoit 2008 5.60
84 66 Sparky Lyle 1975 3.43 DNP
85 66 Roberto Hernandez 1995 4.68
86 66 Rollie Fingers 1977 3.20
87 66 J.P. Howell 2013 2.18
88 66 Dan Wheeler 2008 3.39
89 66 Peter Moylan 2009 3.58
90 65 Kelvim Escobar 2006 4.42
91 65 Norm Charlton 1993 3.12
92 65 Trevor Hoffman 1998 1.60
93 65 Scot Shields 2006 3.08
94 64 Dave Righetti 1989 4.17
95 64 Erik Bedard 2009 3.14
96 64 J.R. Richard 1980 2.45
97 64 Pat Neshek 2011 4.38
98 64 George Sherrill 2007 2.36
99 64 Bill Campbell 1979 4.61
100 64 Vinnie Pestano 2015 6.94

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .207 .302 .320 .233
11 vs R (Multi) .205 .280 .275 .205
18 Split (Multi) .002 .022 .045 .028
19 LgAvg (Multi) .009 .023 .019 .016
30 vs L (2015) .250 .370 .408 .280
31 vs R (2015) .230 .316 .299 .219
38 Split (2015) .020 .053 .109 .061
39 LgAvg (2015) .009 .024 .022 .017

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2016 Holland just never seemed right all season, as the Kansas City closer soldiered through bouts of sketchy control and shockingly reduced velocity to post 32 saves before it was discovered that he had been pitching with a partially torn ligament in his elbow; he'll miss the entire 2016 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October. While baseball is replete with cases of TJ survivors returning stronger than ever, there are no guarantees, especially for a pitcher as slider-reliant as Holland. Whether his otherworldly slide piece helped to speed the fray in his elbow, and whether he'll still be able to throw it with such wild abandon upon his return are open questions. What's certain is that the timing couldn't be worse for Holland, as he'll spend what would have been his walk year building up his strength in anonymous training facilities instead of sending muttering batsmen back to the bench in the heat of another pennant race.
2015 How fantastic is Holland's slider? Hitters don't miss it; their bats are merely too star-struck to approach it. Salvador Perez could flash his signs above his head and batters still wouldn't touch it. Joe Morgan refuses to call it a “slide piece” because it's too noble a beast for such dismissive informality. The most common name for baby girls in Kansas City last year was "Emma," but "Hollandslider" came in second. Batters whiff on it nearly 60 percent of the time, and when they do put it in play they pound it into the ground 60 percent of that time. (One of these sentences is true.) As long as Holland can pair it with his plus fastball and remain healthy, he'll be a top-shelf closer.
2014 What can you say? It gets filthy in the Dirty South. Hollands moniker is appropriate, as his improved command and further refinement of a wicked slider turned him into one of the true lock-down closers in the game. His slider had the league's second-highest whiff rate, and when he was ahead in the count batters hit .101 and slugged .131 against him. He never made an appearance over an inning and started the frame in 67 of his 68 appearances, joining Dan Quisenberry, Jeff Montgomery and Joakim Soria in the Royal Pantheon of Closers with more than 40 saves in a season. The shelf life of closers is short, but in a sense the shelf life for all of us is short.
2013 Moved into the closer role with the midseason trade of Jonathan Broxton to Cincinnati, Holland made the transition from the eighth to ninth inning with ease. He features mostly a fastball-slider combo, but will show a curve from time to time. The heater clocks in around 96 mph, the slider at 86 mph, and his curve at 76 mph to give the hitters plenty to think about while digging into the box. His overall numbers were down a bit from 2011, but he pitched through the first part of April with a rib injury suffered in spring training that eventually sent him to the DL. From his return on May 12 to the end of the season, he had a 2.08 ERA and a 12 SO9. He looks like the replacement for Joakim Soria.
2012 Had a cup of coffee in 2010, ran into a little bad luck, but his 11.1 SO/9 and swing and miss rate of 20% pointed to some upside. He opened the year in Omaha but was recalled in mid-May and quickly established himself as the most dependable reliever in the Royals bullpen. He again punched out hitters to a rate of 11.1 SO/9this time with a 27 percent swing and miss ratewhile he shaved a full walk off his BB/9 rate. Holland also didnt allow a home run over his final 27 innings of work. The combination of control and his ability to miss bats means he will begin the year as Kansas Citys primary set-up man and could see a few save opportunities if Soria should experience another rough patch.
2011 While he looks like Andre the Giant compared to Tiny Tim Collins, Holland still fits firmly in the little-guy/big-arm category. Under six feet tall and without a wide body, Holland still parks his fastball at 95-96 mph and chases it with a slider in the upper 80s. He doesn't make it look easy, and has all the accessories of a max-effort deliverycontrol issues and injury concernsbut the ability to miss bats at the big-league level made him a uniquely valuable addition to the Royals' bullpen at the end of last season. He has earned a another look.

BP Articles

Greg Holland is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
TDGX Transactions: Embracing DarknessGeorge Bissell2016-05-04
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This article requires BP Premium accessFifth Column: What Would an MVP Reliever Look Like?Michael Baumann2016-02-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: A Look at Preliminary ADP DataWilson Karaman2016-01-08
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Categorical Breakdowns: Holds: The General LandscapeGeorge Bissell2015-12-22
This article requires BP Premium accessFantasy Categorical Breakdowns: Saves: The General LandscapeJ.P. Breen2015-12-21
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessRetrospective Player Valuation: AL PitchersMike Gianella2015-11-19
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Categorical Breakdowns: Strikeouts: The General LandscapeGreg Wellemeyer2015-11-12
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Feature: Repeat After Me: HDDGeorge Bissell2015-11-05
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: A Tale of Two ClosersGeorge Bissell2015-10-27
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2015-09-17 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think is the cause of Greg Holland's dramatic dip in velocity? Do you think it's fixable this year? At any time in the future?
(gpessin from New York City)
Velocity drops happen to most pitchers over time, but they tend to happen to extreme over-the-top pitchers more often than most. This is mostly anecdotal, mind you, but it's something that I've noticed in my " Under the Gun" series each year. Holland is one of the most extreme examples of spine-tilting over-the-top that you're going to see, and given the possible link to poor posture and shoulder injuries and the shoulder's role in generating velocity, it makes sense that these spine-tilting pitchers would lose velocity more rapidly. I do worry that there is damage to his shoulder. Stay tuned.

Just a side note: I have daddy duty today, so there might be some pauses in the action as I tend to baby Halle. Apologies in advance. (Doug Thorburn)
2015-02-13 19:00:00 (link to chat)Just to clarify - drop Greg Holland and keep Wade Davis? Or you thought about Derek Holland? I'm fighting for championship this year. Thanks for answer!
(navarra from Ukraine)
I thought you meant Derek. Keep Greg, yes. I'd probably drop McCann. (Mike Gianella)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)If I had asked you three months ago what the Royals' offseason would look like, what would you have said? What about now?
(Justin from KC)
The biggest difference wrought by these three months, I think, is the Royals will show even more faith in Mike Moustakas. Their needs remain the same: They need an RF, a DH, another starting pitcher and some bullpen help.

Why?

Right field: Nori Aoki is a free agent, and he'll certainly play for more than $1.5 million in 2015. KC may make an attempt to retain him.

DH: The Royals have a $12.5 million team option on Billy Butler, and they certainly won't pick it up. He wants to stay, even after an awkward September spent sometimes on the bench. That feeling may not be mutual, but a World Series trophy could alter any potential plans to cut ties with him. Butler is a popular player with the ownership group, and his roots here are deep.

SP: James Shields is a free agent. He'll get a qualifying offer and decline it. If the Royals sign him after that, Andy Martino will cover spring training in a Speedo.

Bullpen: You always need bullpen arms. Here is the one other major difference. It appeared pretty clear throughout the season that the Royals had to make a decision about Greg Holland and Wade Davis. Their total paycheck for 2015 should land around $15 million (give or take $100,000 based on Holland's arbitration figure), and that's a high price to pay for two one-inning relievers. But, of course, this run may alter their internal calculus. Our Sam Mellinger reported the Royals believe they make at least $1 million for every playoff game they host. If they have the spare cash, they may feel its imperative to retain the ingredients of this formula.

That said, relievers are relievers are relievers, and relievers are inherently damaged pitchers. They end up as relievers because there's something wrong with them that prevents them from starting. So they can be volatile. Holland missed a good chunk of September with, essentially, a cranky arm. His triceps was tight. He has the most trade value of the duo, but between his profile as a one-inning reliever and some injury concerns of rival officials, the team won't exactly be able to trade him for a front-line hitter. One suggestion I heard - from neither a Royals official nor a Nationals official - was a fair swap would be Holland for Tanner Roark. I'm not sure the KC front office would be overwhelmed by that offer, but that's the type that could be awaiting them.

All of this is to say: Yes, Moustakas will be back in 2015, despite hitting .212/.271/.361 in 140 games this year. (Andy McCullough)
2014-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)Greg Holland: closing for ___insert ballclub here___ in 2015.
(Francois from Toronto)
Kansas City Royals. (CJ Wittmann)
2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Doug, Greg Holland and Kenley Jansen are putting up incredible K rates with high velocity (Jansen is on pace for 150 Ks as a reliever!) Do you see either keeping up this kind of pace over the rest of the season?
(seabass77 from Milwaukee)
Both pitchers have posted ridiculous K rates in the past, and though it is tempting to assume that there will be some regression (Jansen just has to regress, right?), the fact that the game is trending more and more toward high strikeout numbers suggests that they could maintain eye-popping numbers.

On the jukebox: Sepultura, "Troops of Doom" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Why does it seem so wrong to keep a closer in fantasy leagues? Is this an approach you would avoid? The reason I ask is because I could keep Greg Holland this year at 13th round value and he is projected to go well before that. Thoughts?
(Clyde from Missouri)
I'm not a great fantasy player but it's because they only have so much impact, right? A starting pitcher can rack up more innings in one start than a closer can all week, etc.

Without knowing your league I think you're in a much better position to judge, but that seems like positive value to me. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-09-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)Doug - To both the good and the bad, which pitcher's results this year most flew in the face of his mechanics? Thanks
(R.A. Wagman from Thornhhill)
The good - Probably Greg Holland, who I discussed last week in Raising Aces. His mechanics absolutely do not support such a low walk rate, and he is surviving on pure fastball velocity and sheer movement on the slider.

The bad - Jeremy Hellickson. I really like his delivery overall, and prior to this season he had shown exceptional repetition of mechanical timing, such that Jose Molina could set up outside the borders of the strike zone and expect Helix to hit the location. Most frustrating is that Hellickson has changed his approach with runners on, invoking a slide step on every pitch from the stretch. He used to mix in the occasional slide step from the stretch, but most of his pitches with runners on base were actually better than the windup because he increased his momentum while maintaining a big leg kick, giving him a deeper release point. But his release is very shallow when uses the slide step, and the massive timing difference from windup to stretch has tarnished his repetition this season. The Rays are smart organization, so here's hoping that they can get him to revert back to what worked for the past few seasons.

On the jukebox: Ozzy Osbourne, "Mr. Crowley" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-02-27 20:00:00 (link to chat)Romo & Holland are amongst my keepers this season - do both keep their closer jobs all year?
(Mike from Chi-town)
I'd say yes to Sergio Romo in all likelihood... keeping in mind that the Giants aren't afraid to switch roles at the earliest sign of trouble. I think Greg Holland will be OK, but Kelvin Herrera is extremely talented. If you're a believer in the skills versus roles thing, Herrera's a guy you'll want to grab in deeper formats. (Mike Gianella)
2013-02-27 20:00:00 (link to chat)Who are some underrated closers to target later in drafts? Do you like Casey Janssen or Jason Grilli?
(zissou from naples)
Grill probably falls into the underrated category. There is a lot of noise about Mark Melancon taking Grilli's job, but Grilli's numbers were solid last year and if he's healthy he probably hangs on. Greg Holland's walk rate was high last year, but the other numbers were strong and like Grilli the noise about Holland's set-up might keep the price low. Tom Wilhelmsen is a somewhat low profile but proved himself in 2012. I like Janssen if the health is there but the health gets me nervous. At least at the moment. (Mike Gianella)
2013-02-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)Which lower tier closers have the best chance at becoming elite, if any.
(rupertoooo from Lorton, VA)
time to plug my closer matrix article! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19615 -- I would love to see David Hernandez get a shot at closing. I like Bobby Parnell, Glen Perkins, and Greg Holland. (Jason Collette)
2013-02-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)Are the chances good that Carter Capps and Kelvin Herrera can unseat Tom Wilhemsen and Greg Holland is the (primary) 9th inning option?
(Mateo from Reno)
I'd say more for injury than skills as I like both of those incumbents. (Jason Collette)
2012-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)What young player(s) on the Royals are you most excited about?
(Lucas Apostoleris from Massachusetts)
Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon (does he still count?), Greg Holland. I'm curious to see if Lorenzo Cain is the real deal. Now that the Royals have some legitimate hitting stars on the corners again, I'd really like to see them solidify the middle of the defense with players who can contribute on both sides of the ball. Obviously the Royals aren't going to have every position filled with a star, but if Cain can be a solid regular in the field and in the lineup, that helps a lot. (Mike Fast)
2011-09-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)One last question and I know it may be early for this one... Any hitters or pitchers you like a breakout candidates next year?
(Jquinton82 from NY)
Hm, I like the look of Jerome Williams in a small sample this year. I think Fister and McCarthy may be the real deal, though they're not exactly breakout candidates any more. I like Brian Duensing coming into this season, and still do.

Dave Robertson and Kenley Jansen are two names that will surprise no one, but they could end up in bigger roles. In that vein, Greg Holland for the Royals, Vinnie Pestano for the Indians. And in the this-guys-stuff-intrigues-me-but-his-wildness-scares-me category, plus he has a cool name: Fautino de los Santos. (Mike Fast)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2016, Greg Holland threw 5,699 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2010 and 2015, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2015, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (94mph) and Slider (86mph), also mixing in a Curve (78mph). He also rarely threw a Splitter (87mph).