Biographical

Portrait of J.A. Happ

J.A. Happ PBlue Jays

Blue Jays Player Cards | Blue Jays Team Audit | Blue Jays Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 31)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
102.7 4.77 1.47 83 7 6 0 0.0
Birth Date10-19-1982
Height6' 5"
Weight205 lbs
Age32 years, 0 months, 4 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
-0.12010
0.62011
1.92012
0.92013
0.82014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2007 PHI 24 1 1 4.0 4.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 0 0 21 7 5 5 3 17 2 2 0 5 11.25 11.93 9.96 -1.5 -0.1
2008 PHI 25 8 4 31.7 23.7 8.0 1 0 0 0 3 0 138 28 13 13 3 41 14 13 1 26 3.69 4.12 4.85 1.3 0.1
2009 PHI 26 35 23 166.0 144.3 21.7 12 4 0 0 14 0 685 149 55 54 20 244 56 54 5 119 2.93 4.29 4.33 14.5 1.5
2010 HOU 27 13 13 72.0 72.0 0.0 5 4 0 0 9 0 304 60 33 30 7 95 35 34 1 61 3.75 4.18 4.82 -0.7 -0.1
2010 PHI 27 3 3 15.3 15.3 0.0 1 0 0 0 0 0 70 13 4 3 1 19 12 12 0 9 1.76 5.13 5.03 -0.2 -0.0
2011 HOU 28 28 28 156.3 156.3 0.0 6 15 0 0 11 2 698 157 103 93 21 268 83 78 2 134 5.35 4.66 4.85 7.6 0.6
2012 HOU 29 18 18 104.3 104.3 0.0 7 9 0 0 12 0 457 112 58 56 17 196 39 39 1 98 4.83 4.53 4.78 4.1 0.5
2012 TOR 29 10 6 40.3 33.3 7.0 3 2 0 0 2 0 170 35 21 21 2 57 17 16 1 46 4.69 2.75 2.61 13.2 1.4
2013 TOR 30 18 18 92.7 92.7 0.0 5 7 0 0 5 0 415 91 53 47 10 146 45 45 2 77 4.56 4.34 4.45 8.5 0.9
2014 TOR 31 30 26 158.0 153.0 5.0 11 11 0 0 13 0 673 160 79 74 22 278 51 51 2 133 4.22 4.29 4.76 6.4 0.8
Career164140840.7799.041.751530069236318124243961061361354344157084.244.354.5953.25.5

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2004 BAT A- 11 11 35.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .247 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 LWD A 14 12 72.3 3.23 121 .229 .256 .332 .388 .261 .286 83 14.6 1.4 14.6 1.4
2005 REA AA 1 1 6.0 2.43 -21 .000 .241 .324 .341 .210 .231 1.9 0.2 1.9 0.2
2006 CLR A+ 13 13 80.1 4.76 88 .232 .251 .326 .369 .258 .255 86 5.6 0.6 5.6 0.6
2006 REA AA 12 12 74.1 2.59 138 .234 .247 .316 .362 .258 .297 96 19.2 2.0 19.0 1.9
2006 SWB AAA 1 1 6.0 4.98 82 .202 .263 .322 .381 .253 .118 97 -0.2 -0.0 -0.2 -0.0
2007 PHI MLB 1 1 4.0 9.96 10 .410 .268 .336 .427 .269 .364 109 -1.3 -0.1 -1.5 -0.1
2007 OTT AAA 24 24 118.3 4.87 84 .270 .263 .334 .405 .263 .317 90 1.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.1
2008 PHI MLB 8 4 31.7 4.85 95 .239 .260 .327 .413 .262 .266 99 2.0 0.2 1.3 0.1
2008 LEH AAA 24 23 135.0 5.31 73 .247 .266 .337 .414 .268 .308 88 -3.3 -0.3 -4.4 -0.7
2009 PHI MLB 35 23 166.0 4.33 102 .245 .260 .327 .412 .261 .267 97 16.7 1.7 14.5 1.5
2010 HOU MLB 13 13 72.0 4.82 80 .260 .251 .313 .397 .262 .265 91 0.7 0.1 -0.7 -0.1
2010 PHI MLB 3 3 15.3 5.03 74 .276 .251 .309 .374 .251 .250 91 -0.1 -0.0 -0.2 -0.0
2010 CLR A+ 1 1 3.0 4.42 94 .205 .255 .316 .412 .256 .273 95 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0
2010 REA AA 3 3 12.3 7.19 62 .293 .245 .317 .370 .246 .366 116 -0.9 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1
2010 LEH AAA 5 4 22.3 4.89 88 .318 .265 .323 .424 .255 .348 92 -0.8 -0.1 0.3 0.0
2011 HOU MLB 28 28 156.3 4.85 85 .294 .251 .313 .390 .257 .298 101 4.0 0.4 7.6 0.6
2011 OKL AAA 3 3 18.0 3.56 133 .192 .271 .338 .442 .259 .239 101 5.5 0.5 5.9 0.5
2012 HOU MLB 18 18 104.3 4.78 85 .291 .252 .310 .401 .257 .315 97 3.6 0.4 4.1 0.5
2012 TOR MLB 10 6 40.3 2.61 144 .253 .256 .325 .425 .268 .317 105 13.2 1.4 13.2 1.4
2013 TOR MLB 18 18 92.7 4.45 98 .273 .252 .314 .392 .263 .288 102 8.5 0.9 8.5 0.9
2013 DUN A+ 1 1 5.0 2.08 156 .134 .273 .356 .386 .273 .300 103 1.9 0.2 1.9 0.2
2013 BUF AAA 3 3 13.3 5.62 76 .311 .251 .329 .372 .254 .385 99 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 -0.0
2013 BLJ Rk 1 1 3.0 6.22 75 .261 .269 .348 .382 .285 .286 101 -0.3 -0.0 -0.3 -0.0
2014 TOR MLB 30 26 158.0 4.76 92 .276 .251 .309 .389 .261 .297 106 6.9 0.8 6.4 0.8
2014 DUN A+ 1 1 5.0 3.80 130 .204 .215 .268 .312 .213 .250 117 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.1
2014 BUF AAA 1 1 4.7 4.41 103 .276 .255 .337 .388 .262 .364 97 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2004 BAT A- 1 2 0 11 11 35.7 22 18 37 1 0% .247 5.5 4.5 0.3 9.3 1.12 2.02 0.0 0.0
2005 LWD A 4 4 0 14 12 72.3 57 26 70 3 47% .286 7.1 3.2 0.4 8.7 1.15 2.37 14.6 1.4
2005 REA AA 1 0 0 1 1 6.0 3 2 8 0 54% .231 4.5 3.0 0.0 12.0 0.83 1.50 1.9 0.2
2006 SWB AAA 1 0 0 1 1 6.0 3 1 4 1 39% .118 4.5 1.5 1.5 6.0 0.67 1.50 -0.2 -0.0
2006 REA AA 6 2 0 12 12 74.1 58 29 81 2 41% .297 7.0 3.5 0.2 9.8 1.17 2.67 19.0 1.9
2006 CLR A+ 3 7 0 13 13 80.1 63 19 77 9 51% .255 7.1 2.1 1.0 8.7 1.02 2.81 5.6 0.6
2007 OTT AAA 4 6 0 24 24 118.3 118 62 117 12 34% .317 9.0 4.7 0.9 8.9 1.52 5.02 -0.3 -0.1
2007 PHI MLB 0 1 0 1 1 4.0 7 2 5 3 14% .364 15.8 4.5 6.8 11.2 2.25 11.25 -1.5 -0.1
2008 LEH AAA 8 7 0 24 23 135.0 116 48 151 14 44% .308 7.7 3.2 0.9 10.1 1.21 3.60 -4.4 -0.7
2008 PHI MLB 1 0 0 8 4 31.7 28 14 26 3 35% .266 8.0 4.0 0.9 7.4 1.33 3.69 1.3 0.1
2009 PHI MLB 12 4 0 35 23 166.0 149 56 119 20 40% .267 8.1 3.0 1.1 6.5 1.23 2.93 14.5 1.5
2010 LEH AAA 0 1 0 5 4 22.3 26 15 22 3 51% .348 10.5 6.1 1.2 8.9 1.84 4.84 0.3 0.0
2010 HOU MLB 5 4 0 13 13 72.0 60 35 61 7 41% .265 7.5 4.4 0.9 7.6 1.32 3.75 -0.7 -0.1
2010 PHI MLB 1 0 0 3 3 15.3 13 12 9 1 37% .250 7.6 7.0 0.6 5.3 1.63 1.76 -0.2 -0.0
2010 CLR A+ 0 1 0 1 1 3.0 3 0 2 0 64% .273 9.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 1.00 6.00 0.2 0.0
2010 REA AA 1 0 0 3 3 12.3 18 4 10 3 45% .366 13.2 2.9 2.2 7.3 1.79 8.05 -0.9 -0.1
2011 OKL AAA 1 0 0 3 3 18.0 11 9 16 0 41% .239 5.5 4.5 0.0 8.0 1.11 1.50 5.9 0.5
2011 HOU MLB 6 15 0 28 28 156.3 157 83 134 21 35% .298 9.0 4.8 1.2 7.7 1.54 5.35 7.6 0.6
2012 TOR MLB 3 2 0 10 6 40.3 35 17 46 2 38% .317 7.8 3.8 0.4 10.3 1.29 4.69 13.2 1.4
2012 HOU MLB 7 9 0 18 18 104.3 112 39 98 17 48% .315 9.7 3.4 1.5 8.5 1.45 4.83 4.1 0.5
2013 BUF AAA 0 2 0 3 3 13.3 17 8 13 2 44% .385 11.5 5.4 1.4 8.8 1.88 6.75 -0.1 -0.0
2013 DUN A+ 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 3 0 7 0 10% .300 5.4 0.0 0.0 12.6 0.60 0.00 1.9 0.2
2013 TOR MLB 5 7 0 18 18 92.7 91 45 77 10 38% .288 8.8 4.4 1.0 7.5 1.47 4.56 8.5 0.9
2013 BLJ Rk 0 0 0 1 1 3.0 4 0 0 0 64% .286 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.33 0.00 -0.3 -0.0
2014 BUF AAA 0 0 0 1 1 4.7 5 2 6 1 33% .364 9.6 3.9 1.9 11.6 1.50 1.93 0.4 0.0
2014 DUN A+ 1 0 0 1 1 5.0 3 1 5 0 75% .250 5.4 1.8 0.0 9.0 0.80 3.60 1.1 0.1
2014 TOR MLB 11 11 0 30 26 158.0 160 51 133 22 42% .297 9.1 2.9 1.3 7.6 1.34 4.22 6.4 0.8

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 541 0.4972 0.4325 0.8547 0.6357 0.2316 0.9006 0.7302 0.1410
2009 2610 0.5249 0.4519 0.8270 0.6197 0.2661 0.8799 0.6909 0.1713
2010 1560 0.4782 0.4365 0.8194 0.6394 0.2506 0.8721 0.6961 0.1806
2011 2960 0.4801 0.4393 0.8246 0.6460 0.2482 0.8660 0.7251 0.1738
2012 2532 0.5154 0.4672 0.7963 0.6406 0.2828 0.8624 0.6369 0.2029
2013 1722 0.5064 0.4521 0.8201 0.6353 0.2635 0.8773 0.6786 0.1799
2014 2708 0.5292 0.4627 0.8436 0.6301 0.2745 0.8904 0.7229 0.1564
Career146330.50680.45170.82370.63510.26370.87560.6950.1754

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-03-26 2014-04-13 15-DL 18 12 - Low Back Inflammation - -
2014-03-04 2014-03-19 Camp 15 0 - Low Back Tightness - -
2013-05-08 2013-08-05 60-DL 89 77 - Head Fracture Batted Ball and Laceration - -
2012-09-04 2012-10-04 60-DL 30 28 Right Foot Surgery Fracture 2012-09-13 -
2011-03-29 2011-03-31 Camp 2 0 Left Abdomen Strain Oblique -
2010-04-16 2010-07-06 15-DL 81 72 Left Forearm Strain Flexor Pronator Mass -
2009-10-08 2009-10-08 DTD 0 0 Left Lower Leg Contusion Batted Ball Off Shin -
2009-09-18 2009-09-18 DTD 0 0 Right Abdomen Soreness Oblique -
2009-09-03 2009-09-18 DTD 15 15 Right Trunk Strain Intercostal -
2007-09-29 2007-09-29 WIN 0 0 Left Elbow Strain -
2007-05-30 2007-06-14 Minors 15 0 Left Elbow Inflammation -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2015 TOR $200,000
2014 TOR $5,200,000
2013 TOR $3,700,000
2012 HOU $2,350,000
2011 HOU $474,000
2010 PHI $470,000
2009 PHI $405,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
5 yrPrevious$7,399,000
2011Current$5,200,000
6 yrPvs + Cur$12,599,000
1 yrFuture$200,000
7 yrTotal$12,799,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
5 y 47 dJay Fee Sports1 year/$3.7M (2013)

Details
  • 1 year/$5.4M (2014), plus 2015 club option. Signed extension with Toronto 3/27/13. 14:$5.2M, 15:$6.7M club option, $0.2M buyout.
  • 1 year/$3.7M (2013). Re-signed by Toronto 1/18/13 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$2.35M (2012). Re-signed by Houston 1/17/12 (avoided arbitration). Acquired by Toronto in trade from Houston 7/20/12.
  • 1 year/$0.474M (2011). Re-signed by Houston 2/27/11.
  • 1 year/$0.47M (2010). Re-signed by Philadelphia 2/10. Acquired by Houston in trade from Philadelphia 7/28/10 (Roy Oswalt deal).
  • 1 year/$0.405M (2009). Re-signed by Philadelphia 3/3/09.
  • 1 year (2008). Re-signed by Philadelphia.
  • 1 year (2007). Contract purchased by Philadelphia 6/30/07.
  • Drafted by Philadelphia 2004 (3-92) (Northwestern). $0.42M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 8.4 7.1 0 23 23 150.1 130 57 119 18 .259 1.24 3.71 4.03 18.1 1.8
80o 8.1 7.6 0 23 23 143.4 132 58 114 18 .271 1.32 4.09 4.44 11.8 1.2
70o 7.9 7.9 0 23 23 138.7 133 58 110 18 .279 1.38 4.37 4.75 7.2 0.7
60o 7.7 8.2 0 23 23 134.8 134 59 107 18 .286 1.43 4.61 5.01 3.5 0.4
50o 7.5 8.5 0 23 23 131.1 134 59 104 18 .293 1.47 4.84 5.26 0.0 0.0
40o 7.3 8.8 0 23 23 127.5 135 59 101 19 .300 1.52 5.07 5.51 -3.4 -0.3
30o 7.1 9.2 0 23 23 123.7 135 59 98 19 .307 1.58 5.32 5.79 -7.1 -0.7
20o 6.8 9.6 0 23 23 119.3 136 60 94 19 .315 1.64 5.62 6.11 -11.2 -1.1
10o 6.4 10.2 0 23 23 113.4 136 60 90 19 .327 1.73 6.04 6.57 -16.8 -1.7
Weighted Mean7.58.502323131.01335810418.2921.464.815.230.40.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
11% 40% 21% 25% 78%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20153271202727160181771242739.3111.625.786.2810.24.37.01.5-1.7
201633690222212813862962039.2961.565.435.909.74.36.71.4-0.9
201734680202011612955831839.3031.595.556.0410.04.36.41.4-1.0
20183557016169410645621539.3011.615.636.1210.14.35.91.4-0.8
201936580181810612149711739.3021.605.656.1410.24.16.01.4-1.0
2020374601414829539571439.3091.635.886.3910.44.36.31.5-1.0
2021383501212708033481239.3071.625.856.3610.34.36.21.6-0.8
2022393501111667830431139.3091.635.806.3010.64.15.81.5-0.7
2023403501111667730421139.3071.635.816.3210.64.15.81.5-0.7

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
25.923.914.76.2out of baseball6.770.6

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 85)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 89 Armando Galarraga 2013 0.00 DNP
2 88 Vicente Padilla 2009 4.64
3 88 Jason Schmidt 2004 3.32
4 88 Sid Fernandez 1994 5.15
5 88 John Maine 2012 0.00 DNP
6 88 Jack Harshman 1959 5.09
7 88 Bob Welch 1988 3.94
8 87 Tim Belcher 1993 4.66
9 87 Mario Soto 1988 5.07
10 87 Andy Benes 1999 5.31
11 87 Chuck Smith 2001 4.81
12 87 Bartolo Colon 2004 5.27
13 87 Bill Singer 1975 5.28 DNP
14 87 Mike Boddicker 1989 4.29
15 87 Brian Bannister 2012 0.00 DNP
16 87 Jorge Sosa 2009 6.85
17 87 Jerry Koosman 1974 3.84
18 87 Ted Lilly 2007 3.96
19 87 Rick Sutcliffe 1987 3.94
20 86 Todd Wellemeyer 2010 5.68
21 86 Mark Mulder 2009 0.00 DNP
22 86 Vida Blue 1981 2.89
23 86 Wade Miller 2008 0.00 DNP
24 86 Carl Erskine 1958 5.58
25 86 Jorge De La Rosa 2012 11.81
26 86 Randy Wolf 2008 4.73
27 86 Kip Wells 2008 6.93
28 86 Ray Culp 1973 5.72
29 86 Bob Lemon 1952 2.99
30 86 Pat Dobson 1973 4.72
31 86 Todd Stottlemyre 1996 4.03
32 86 Sonny Siebert 1968 3.33
33 85 Bruce Kison 1981 3.68
34 85 Johnny Antonelli 1961 7.36
35 85 Gary Peters 1968 4.37
36 85 Pat Jarvis 1972 4.66
37 85 Kevin Appier 1999 5.64
38 85 Alex Fernandez 2001 0.00 DNP
39 85 Tony Armas 2009 0.00 DNP
40 85 Kevin Correia 2012 4.68
41 85 Rodrigo Lopez 2007 4.88
42 85 John Smoltz 1998 3.11
43 85 Dave Bush 2011 6.51
44 85 Andy Messersmith 1977 4.75
45 84 Joe Saunders 2012 4.53
46 84 Denny Neagle 2000 4.69
47 84 Juan Guzman 1998 4.99
48 84 Mark Langston 1992 4.05
49 84 Chuck Finley 1994 4.66
50 84 Danny Darwin 1987 4.00
51 84 Mark Portugal 1994 4.46
52 84 Gil Meche 2010 6.13
53 84 Kenny Rogers 1996 4.88
54 84 John Tudor 1985 2.23
55 84 Mark Redman 2005 5.00
56 84 Jack Sanford 1960 4.48
57 84 Mickey Lolich 1972 2.75
58 83 George Brunet 1966 3.74
59 83 David Cone 1994 3.15
60 83 Gene Conley 1962 4.32 DNP
61 83 Steve Carlton 1976 3.35
62 83 Jose Deleon 1992 4.83
63 83 Billy O'Dell 1964 5.82
64 83 John Thomson 2005 4.74
65 83 Dave Stewart 1988 3.62
66 83 Ray Sadecki 1972 3.81
67 83 Jeff Francis 2012 5.65
68 83 Dave Goltz 1980 4.78
69 83 Ted Higuera 1989 3.72
70 83 Bert Blyleven 1982 6.20
71 83 Nate Robertson 2009 6.16
72 83 Rudy May 1976 4.33
73 83 Juan Pizarro 1968 4.10
74 83 Jim Bunning 1963 4.31
75 83 Milt Wilcox 1981 3.30
76 83 Mike Flanagan 1983 3.81
77 83 David Palmer 1989 9.87
78 83 Freddy Garcia 2008 4.80
79 83 Stan Williams 1968 2.96
80 83 Al Downing 1972 3.60
81 82 Rick Wise 1977 4.77
82 82 Pascual Perez 1988 2.82
83 82 Josh Fogg 2008 7.93
84 82 Stu Miller 1959 3.54
85 82 Joe Blanton 2012 4.99
86 82 Early Wynn 1951 3.35
87 82 Joe Nuxhall 1960 4.66
88 82 Shawn Chacon 2009 0.00 DNP
89 82 Frank Lary 1961 3.82
90 82 Carl Pavano 2007 5.56
91 82 Rick Rhoden 1984 3.06
92 82 Aaron Sele 2001 3.89
93 82 Mike Cuellar 1968 3.15
94 82 Jim Rooker 1974 3.15
95 82 Saul Rogovin 1955 4.40
96 82 Mark Clark 1999 8.84
97 82 Don Drysdale 1968 2.38
98 82 Gaylord Perry 1970 3.78
99 82 Jim Beattie 1986 6.25
100 82 Adam Eaton 2009 8.08

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .276 .337 .418 .272
11 vs R (Multi) .249 .334 .427 .275
18 Split (Multi) .026 .003 -.009 -.002
19 LgAvg (Multi) -.026 -.032 -.063 -.030
30 vs L (2013) .304 .371 .431 .293
31 vs R (2013) .229 .319 .389 .259
38 Split (2013) .075 .052 .042 .033
39 LgAvg (2013) -.025 -.031 -.062 -.029

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Last October, Happ became the eighth Toronto pitcher to end his season early when a break was discovered in his right foot. This season youd expect him to step back into his slot in the back of the rotation, and on a team that hadnt just acquired three good starting pitchers, that would happen. Happ should be a perfectly cromulent fourth or fifth starter. He gets his strikeouts (a career high 9.0 K/9 last season), but walks and hard-hit balls have been a problem. Hes always been a starter, but on this team hes a long man out of the pen. Considering his four-seam fastball has jumped 1.6 mph to 91.2 mph since arriving in the majors, maybe thats a blessing in disguise.
2012 J.A. Happ is the one who started it all. Sure, J.R. Towles had debuted before Happ arrived, but he didn't stick as a full-time player until the next season. The next thing you know, there's a J.D. And a J.B. Who knows where it will end . . . J.Z.? The bill finally came due on Happ's charmed life and his ERA caught and surpassed his FIP, which also soared like the numerous moonshots he allowed. Facing more pressure situations, Happ pressed. He threw more fastballs, and while he actually showed slightly beter velocity than he had in the past, that wasn't a good thing. For J.A., less is more, and his best successes come when he's using the J.M., as in Jamie Moyer, playbook.
2011 After perusing his peripherals and considering the two ballparks he has called home in his brief major-league career, it becomes clear that Happ has led a charmed on-field existence. He's far from dominant, recording 6.8 strikeouts, 3.8 walks, and 1.1 home runs per nine innings, and as a fly-ball pitcher with just two pitches (fastball/changeup) who has called two hitters' parks (Citizens Bank and Minute Maid) home, he has no right to a career ERA in the low-3.00s. Unfazed by the facts, Happ continued to be quite effective last season after missing most of the first half with a strained forearm. The Phillies dealt the southpaw to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt deal, which will put Houston on the hook when the law of averages catches up to Happ and his .273 career BABIP.
2010 Happ may have lost out on top rookie hardware to Florida's Chris Coghlan but settling for the team lead in SNWP (.602, which ranked 12th of the 129 pitchers with 100+ frames) and SNLVAR (5.1) will have to suffice. He also led the Phillies rotation in ERA and was the most reliable starter on the staff. Did we mention that he was a rookie last season? Yes, Happ benefited from a lofty 85 percent rate of stranding runners when the league generally hovers closer to 72 percent, and he may not strike out enough hitters to make that high walk rate stand up. However, with his size and some deception in his delivery, he manages to come on top of hitters with his fastball, mixing in his slider, and getting good angles on his slider, which combine to compensate for the lack of a true out pitch. Happ won't be this good every time out, but he should be a rotation stalwart for years to come.
2009 Happ took another step forward in 2008 thanks to improved command and a much better slider. He remains a finesse pitcher, but that's easier to swallow when the pitcher in question is tall left-hander with naturally deceptive arm action. He pitched fairly well as both a starter and reliever at the end of the year, but there's no room for him in the Philadelphia rotation, making his best bet the idea that he sticks as a long reliever.
2008 For the first three years of his career, Happ never posted an ERA above 2.81 at any level, but as a tall lefty with average-at-best velocity who got by on location and changing speeds, he was seen as a pitcher whose style wouldn't play well against more advanced hitters. The rubber hit the road in 2007, tThough some elbow soreness didn't help matters. He looks like no more than a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever.
2007 Happ cleared two levels in 2006 and finished the year by pitching in the Arizona Fall League. His stuff is unimpressive--a fastball that generally stays below 90 and a slider that`s too frequently a slurve. What he does have is control, a deceptive delivery that makes his fastball look faster than it really is, a good changeup, and an intelligent, polished approach to pitching. That`s good and bad--learning how to pitch effectively is where a lot of minor league pitchers develop, so it is difficult to see where and how he`s going to improve.

BP Articles

J.A. Happ is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 26Wilson Karaman2014-09-19
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Call-Up: Daniel NorrisMark Anderson2014-09-02
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Call-Up: Daniel NorrisCraig Goldstein2014-09-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 22Wilson Karaman2014-08-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Week 21Mike Gianella2014-08-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Week 21Bret Sayre2014-08-21
This article requires BP Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 20Mike Gianella2014-08-14
This article requires BP Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 20Bret Sayre2014-08-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 31Ian Lefkowitz2014-08-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 31Jared Weiss2014-08-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 31Ben Murphy2014-08-14
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily League Strategy: Up LatosPaul Sporer2014-08-12
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 8, 2014Morris Greenberg2014-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 8, 2014Sam Miller2014-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 8, 2014Andrew Koo2014-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 8, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-08-08
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 19Bret Sayre2014-08-08
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 19Mike Gianella2014-08-08
Daily League Strategy: Two Servings of FlandePaul Sporer2014-07-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: The MLB Trade Landscape, BuyersMike Gianella2014-07-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 17Wilson Karaman2014-07-18
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 15Wilson Karaman2014-07-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 11Mike Gianella2014-06-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week 11Bret Sayre2014-06-12
Eyewitness Accounts: June 11, 2014BP Prospect Staff2014-06-11
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 11Wilson Karaman2014-06-06
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week NineMike Gianella2014-05-30
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFree Agent Watch: Week NineBret Sayre2014-05-30
Daily League Strategy: Kluber ClubPaul Sporer2014-05-30
Daily League Strategy: Two Stud PitchersPaul Sporer2014-05-20
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Stash List: Sixth EditionBret Sayre2014-05-20
BP Unfiltered: This Week's New Pitching Lines, 5/16Sam Miller2014-05-16
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Stash List: Fourth EditionBret Sayre2014-05-06
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Call-Up: Marcus StromanBen Carsley2014-05-05
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Call-Up: Marcus StromanNick J. Faleris2014-05-05
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Weekend Wrap-Up, 5/5Daniel Rathman2014-05-05
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Meltdown in MinnesotaDaniel Rathman2014-04-18
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Preview: AL East 2014 Preseason PreviewZachary Levine2014-03-25
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Preview: AL East 2014 Preseason PreviewAndrew Koo2014-03-25
This article requires BP Premium accessRaising Aces: Over the Radar 2.0Doug Thorburn2014-03-07
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Whither Santana?Daniel Rathman2014-02-20
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Where the Remaining Free Agents Would Matter the MostBen Lindbergh2014-02-12
The Lineup Card: Nine Moves that Teams Still Need to MakeBaseball Prospectus2014-01-30
Baseball ProGUESTus: The 2013 All-Out-of-Position TeamAndrew Mearns2014-01-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: Toronto Blue JaysBen Carsley2013-12-06
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Astros Acquire a Player!Sam Miller2013-12-04
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Beltran to the Bronx?Daniel Rathman2013-11-26
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 29, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Fool's Gold: American League Starting PitchersBen Carsley2013-09-27
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 24, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 26Paul Sporer2013-09-20
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 19, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-19
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 13, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-13
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 8, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-08
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 28, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-28
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August's Surprising Power PerformancesDaniel Rathman2013-08-28
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 23, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 22Paul Sporer2013-08-23
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 18, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-18
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 17, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-17
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 13, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-13
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 20Paul Sporer2013-08-09
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 8, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-08
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 7, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-07
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 4, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-04
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 20, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-20
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 14, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-14
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 4, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-04
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 26, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-26
Painting the Black: Birds SongR.J. Anderson2013-06-24
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 21, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-21
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Pitchers Take the WheelJohn Perrotto2013-06-20
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 19, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-19
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 18, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-18
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 17, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Fast Starts and Slow StartsMike Gianella2013-06-10
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 8, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-08
This article requires BP Premium accessIn A Pickle: The Bunts That Lead to Big ThingsJason Wojciechowski2013-05-31
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 25, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-25
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Call-Up: Sean NolinBret Sayre2013-05-24
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Call-Up: Sean NolinMark Anderson2013-05-24
This article requires BP Premium accessSkewed Left: A Somewhat Happy 40th for the Immortal Ramon OrtizZachary Levine2013-05-22
The Week in Quotes: May 6-12Jonah Birenbaum2013-05-13
The Week in Quotes: May 6-12Pete Barrett2013-05-13
The Week in Quotes: May 6-12Andrew Koo2013-05-13
Fantasy Beat: Weekly #streameroftheday UpdateBret Sayre2013-05-10
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 10th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-10
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 9th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-09
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: No-Hitting NationalsJohn Perrotto2013-05-09
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 8th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-08
Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 5/3Ben Lindbergh2013-05-03
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 3, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-03
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: The Bronx Band of Misfit ToysDaniel Rathman2013-04-29
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: April 28, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-28
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: April 23, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week FourPaul Sporer2013-04-19
Fantasy Beat: Weekly #streameroftheday UpdateBret Sayre2013-04-18
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: April 18, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-18
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: April 13, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-13
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: High-Stakes League Free Agent RundownJason Collette2013-04-09
Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 7, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-07
Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 7, 2013Joe Hamrahi2013-04-07
Transaction Analysis: Five Years For WainwrightR.J. Anderson2013-03-29
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Aged to Perfection?John Perrotto2013-02-25
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: A Snag in the Grand PlanDaniel Rathman2013-02-25
A Little Relief: Six Bullpen Arms Still AvailableJonah Birenbaum2013-01-18
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: The Moves Alex Anthopoulos Made Before the BlockbusterBen Lindbergh2012-11-14
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: The Surprisingly Hard-to-Hit Pitches of 2012Ben Lindbergh2012-09-19
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessWeekly Planner: Week 23Paul Sporer2012-08-31
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: Starting Pitching for 8/30/12Paul Sporer2012-08-30
What You Need to Know: Wednesday, August 29Daniel Rathman2012-08-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessWeekly Planner: Week 22Derek Carty2012-08-24
What You Need to Know: Thursday, August 23Daniel Rathman2012-08-23
Bizball: How Low Will Jim Crane Go with the Astros?Maury Brown2012-08-20
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Process: Resetting the Astros RosterBradley Ankrom2012-08-17
This article requires BP Premium accessIn A Pickle: Why We Want to Be SmartJason Wojciechowski2012-08-10
On the Beat: Snaking Up the StandingsJohn Perrotto2012-08-09
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Improving Your Team, or Butting In?Derek Carty2012-08-09
What You Need to Know: Tuesday, August 7Daniel Rathman2012-08-07
BP Unfiltered: The Trade Deadline Transaction Analysis Thread UPDATEDBaseball Prospectus2012-07-31
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Snider and Lincoln Change Scenery, LA Adds League, and Thames Joins the M'sBen Lindbergh2012-07-31
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Snider and Lincoln Change Scenery, LA Adds League, and Thames Joins the M'sKevin Goldstein2012-07-31
Baseball ProGUESTus: How to Root for Your Team's Recently Acquired Rent-a-PlayerJosh Worn2012-07-31
The Process: When Will We Know Who Won the 10-Player Trade?Bradley Ankrom2012-07-26
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: Two Good Starts and a TradeSam Miller2012-07-25
Transaction Analysis: Shaking Out the 10-Player SwapR.J. Anderson2012-07-20
Transaction Analysis: Shaking Out the 10-Player SwapKevin Goldstein2012-07-20
BP Unfiltered: Three Potential Reasons for Today's 10-Player TradeLarry Granillo2012-07-20
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessWeekly Planner: Week 15Paul Sporer2012-07-13
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Starting Pitchers to TargetDerek Carty2012-06-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessWeekly Planner: Week 12Paul Sporer2012-06-15
BP Unfiltered: Which 14 K Perfect Gamer Faced a Better Lineup?Paul Sporer2012-06-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: Starting Pitching for 6/14/12Paul Sporer2012-06-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: Starting Pitching for 5/24/12Paul Sporer2012-05-24
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Beckett and HydeJay Jaffe2012-05-16
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessWeekly Planner: Week FivePaul Sporer2012-04-27
Painting the Black: Occam's RubberR.J. Anderson2012-04-17
Resident Fantasy Genius: Tout Wars and LABR NL DraftsDerek Carty2012-03-26
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: NL Rotation RumbleJay Jaffe2012-03-12
Prospectus Preview: NL Central 2012 Preseason Preview, Part IStephani Bee2012-03-01
Prospectus Preview: NL Central 2012 Preseason Preview, Part ILarry Granillo2012-03-01
This article requires BP Premium accessHeartburn Hardball: The Race to the Bottom in 2012Jonathan Bernhardt2012-02-16
Internet Baseball Awards: National LeagueGreg Spira2011-11-21
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Junkballin'Jay Jaffe2011-09-15
Divide and Conquer, NL Central: The Astros vs. the Peanuts GangLarry Granillo2011-08-09
Transaction Analysis Blog: Braves, Rays Make Rotation MovesR.J. Anderson2011-08-07
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: A Pence for His ThoughtsJohn Perrotto2011-08-04
Future Shock: Friday Fun: Minor League Update for July 29... 2006?Kevin Goldstein2011-07-29
Baseball ProGUESTus: The Horror of Their Times: The Glory of Baseball's WorstsKing Kaufman2011-07-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #16Craig Brown2011-07-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #12Craig Brown2011-06-17
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: NL: The Valdez Non-DisasterJay Jaffe2011-05-31
Transaction Analysis: Calling for the CavalryBen Lindbergh2011-05-31
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 29Larry Granillo2011-05-30
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #9Craig Brown2011-05-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #5Craig Brown2011-04-29
BP Unfiltered: For Amusement Only 4/5John Perrotto2011-04-04
This article requires BP Premium accessTeam Injury Projection: Houston AstrosCorey Dawkins2011-03-24
This article requires BP Premium accessTeam Injury Projection: Houston AstrosMarc Normandin2011-03-24
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: DisAstros in the MakingJay Jaffe2011-03-17
This article requires BP Premium accessTeam Injury Projection: Philadelphia PhilliesCorey Dawkins2011-03-15
This article requires BP Premium accessTeam Injury Projection: Philadelphia PhilliesMarc Normandin2011-03-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Know Your EnemyBill Baer2011-03-14
This article requires BP Premium accessThe BP Broadside: Ben Francisco, Open Your Golden GateSteven Goldman2011-03-07
Spitballing: Fourth Time's the HarmJeremy Greenhouse2011-03-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: NL Starting Pitcher RankingsMarc Normandin2011-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Scoresheet Draft Prep, BP Kings, and YouRob McQuown2011-02-25
Fantasy Beat: BP Scoresheet Early Draft PrepRob McQuown2011-02-07
Checking the Numbers: Ranking R2C2Eric Seidman2010-12-15
Checking the Numbers: Sneaky Good in the Senior CircuitEric Seidman2010-11-10
This article requires BP Premium accessGM for a Day: Houston AstrosSteven Goldman2010-11-02
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Philadelphia PhilliesKevin Goldstein2010-10-27
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Philadelphia PhilliesMarc Normandin2010-10-27
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Philadelphia PhilliesESPN Insider2010-10-27
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: The FinaleJay Jaffe2010-10-06
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Eyeing The Glass SlipperJohn Perrotto2010-09-29
Prospectus Hit List: NL: Getting SortedJay Jaffe2010-09-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #25Craig Brown2010-09-17
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Houston AstrosKevin Goldstein2010-09-17
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Houston AstrosSteven Goldman2010-09-17
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Houston AstrosESPN Insider2010-09-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: The Recent Happenings of J.A. HappMarc Normandin2010-09-10
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: NL: Trouble at the TopJay Jaffe2010-09-09
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #22Craig Brown2010-08-27
This article requires BP Premium accessChanging Speeds: The Golden GenerationKen Funck2010-08-19
This article requires BP Premium accessAhead in the Count: Only Two Games WorseMatt Swartz2010-08-17
This article requires BP Premium accessAhead in the Count: Only Two Games WorseEric Seidman2010-08-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #20Craig Brown2010-08-12
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: All Chipper'd Out?Jay Jaffe2010-08-12
This article requires BP Premium accessAhead in the Count: The 2010 Trade DeadlineMatt Swartz2010-08-06
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Rotation PromotionsBill Baer2010-07-30
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: Texas Fold 'EmKevin Goldstein2010-07-29
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: Texas Fold 'EmChristina Kahrl2010-07-29
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: NL East and CentralChristina Kahrl2010-07-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Starting PitchersBill Baer2010-07-23
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Returns and DeparturesJay Jaffe2010-07-22
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: Shuffling SeniorsChristina Kahrl2010-07-12
BP Unfiltered: The Paper Trail of July 6John Perrotto2010-07-06
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Monday UpdateJohn Perrotto2010-07-05
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Friday UpdateJohn Perrotto2010-07-02
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: Dealing and DecapitatingChristina Kahrl2010-07-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Ailing Starters: Who to WatchBill Baer2010-06-23
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Gain a Pitcher, Lose a PitcherWill Carroll2010-06-16
This article requires BP Premium accessExpanded Horizons: In the RedTommy Bennett2010-06-15
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Friday UpdateWill Carroll2010-06-11
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Neither a Berroa Nor a [Ver]lander BeBen Lindbergh2010-06-10
This article requires BP Premium accessAhead in the Count: Most Net Valuable PlayerMatt Swartz2010-05-07
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Runaway RedbirdsJay Jaffe2010-05-05
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Blue Moon RisingWill Carroll2010-05-05
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: Central PreoccupationsChristina Kahrl2010-05-03
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: A Case of the MondaysWill Carroll2010-05-03
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: NL RoundupChristina Kahrl2010-05-02
This article requires BP Premium accessAhead in the Count: Ryan Howard and the New MORPMatt Swartz2010-04-27
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: National League RoundupChristina Kahrl2010-04-23
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Checking Out Aroldis ChapmanWill Carroll2010-04-23
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Woe Are The O'sWill Carroll2010-04-20
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: Senior ShuffleChristina Kahrl2010-04-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: Pre-season Fantasy PredictionsBaseball Prospectus2010-04-04
BP Unfiltered: UPDATED NL Projected Opening Day RostersJohn Perrotto2010-04-01
Between The Numbers: SIERA in Stat ReportsMatt Swartz2010-03-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: NL Starting PitchersMarc Normandin2010-03-09
The Week in Quotes: March 1-7Alex Carnevale2010-03-08
This article requires BP Premium accessDivision Preview: NL EastKevin Goldstein2010-02-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTeam Health Reports: Philadelphia PhilliesWill Carroll2010-02-11
This article requires BP Premium accessAhead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 3Matt Swartz2010-02-04
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Weekend UpdateJohn Perrotto2010-01-31
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: Overpaying Pineiro and Little Sarge's Big Apple AdventureChristina Kahrl2010-01-22
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: NL Shopping ListsJoe Sheehan2009-12-06
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Midweek UpdateJohn Perrotto2009-11-18
Voting For Real: NL Rookie of the YearWill Carroll2009-11-16
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: Awards SeasonJoe Sheehan2009-11-16
The 2009 Internet Baseball Awards: NL Results and Wrap-UpGreg Spira2009-11-10
Prospectus Today: Looking Both Forwards and BackJoe Sheehan2009-11-06
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Philadelphia PhilliesBaseball Prospectus2009-11-06
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Anatomy of a ChampionshipJay Jaffe2009-11-05
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: The Crown Rests LightlyJoe Sheehan2009-11-05
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Shorting OutJay Jaffe2009-11-03
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: The Trouble With SouthpawsJay Jaffe2009-11-01
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: World Series Weekend UpdateJohn Perrotto2009-11-01
This article requires BP Premium accessWorld Series Prospectus: Yankees versus Phillies PreviewJay Jaffe2009-10-28
This article requires BP Premium accessWorld Series Prospectus: Four KeysBaseball Prospectus2009-10-27
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Rotation ExasperationJay Jaffe2009-10-22
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: Keeping You GuessingJoe Sheehan2009-10-17
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Left Too LongJay Jaffe2009-10-16
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: The NLCSJoe Sheehan2009-10-15
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Dodgers vs. Phillies LCSJay Jaffe2009-10-15
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: A Game Three ClassicJoe Sheehan2009-10-12
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Season FinaleJay Jaffe2009-10-12
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: Second Day RoundupJoe Sheehan2009-10-09
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Phillies versus Rockies LDSEric Seidman2009-10-07
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Health Report: National LeagueWill Carroll2009-10-06
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Final Weekend UpdateJohn Perrotto2009-10-04
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Closing Up on '09Will Carroll2009-10-02
On the Beat: Midweek UpdateJohn Perrotto2009-09-30
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: The Final StretchWill Carroll2009-09-28
Prospectus Hit List: Nearly All Wrapped UpJay Jaffe2009-09-25
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: Post-season BullpensJoe Sheehan2009-09-24
This article requires BP Premium accessFab Fours: Picking the Best Playoff RotationsChristina Kahrl2009-09-24
This article requires BP Premium accessChecking the Numbers: Perceived VelocityEric Seidman2009-09-22
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Interest Over ImpactWill Carroll2009-09-18
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Western WoesWill Carroll2009-09-14
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Warning IndicatorsWill Carroll2009-09-09
This article requires BP Premium accessUnder The Knife: Down and OutWill Carroll2009-09-08
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Weekend RoundupJohn Perrotto2009-08-30
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Scheduling Impact in the NLJay Jaffe2009-08-28
Prospectus Hit List: Breaking in and Breaking DownJay Jaffe2009-08-28
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: The Left WingJoe Sheehan2009-08-19
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: Settling InJoe Sheehan2009-08-14
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: Assorted Senior CircuitryChristina Kahrl2009-08-14
This article requires BP Premium accessChecking the Numbers: Anatomy of a Good ProblemEric Seidman2009-08-14
On the Beat: Midweek UpdateJohn Perrotto2009-08-12
Checking the Numbers: Scouting the Cubs/Phillies SeriesEric Seidman2009-08-11
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Weekend RoundupJohn Perrotto2009-08-09
Prospectus Hit List: The Post-Shuffle ShuffleJay Jaffe2009-08-07
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: August 6Kevin Goldstein2009-08-06
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Rust Belt Teams Rusted Out?John Perrotto2009-08-02
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Major Moves RoundupChristina Kahrl2009-07-30
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Rookie PitchersMarc Normandin2009-07-28
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Striking Bargains and Striking OutJohn Perrotto2009-07-26
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Mid-Week UpdateJohn Perrotto2009-07-22
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Buyers Rush Nearly Empty Shelves?John Perrotto2009-07-16
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Mid-Season SnapshotJohn Perrotto2009-07-12
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: NL Add-OnsChristina Kahrl2009-07-11
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Call the DoctorJay Jaffe2009-07-09
Prospectus Hit List: Beating the Holiday TrafficJay Jaffe2009-07-03
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Trouble at HomeJay Jaffe2009-06-24
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Mid-Week UpdateJohn Perrotto2009-06-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Opponents of QualityMarc Normandin2009-06-16
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: NL East RoundupChristina Kahrl2009-06-16
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Mid-Week RoundupJohn Perrotto2009-06-10
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: Phillies at MetsJoe Sheehan2009-06-09
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Sunday SummaryJohn Perrotto2009-06-07
Prospectus Hit List: The RisingJay Jaffe2009-06-05
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Can't Anyone Here Play This Game?Jay Jaffe2009-05-22
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Mid-week RoundupJohn Perrotto2009-05-20
Prospectus Hit and Run: Rotation Freak ShowsJay Jaffe2009-05-19
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Senior Circuit ShufflingChristina Kahrl2009-04-02
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Season to Come: NL Projected StandingsJay Jaffe2009-04-02
This article requires BP Premium accessChecking the Numbers: The Man Who Broke PECOTA?Eric Seidman2009-03-18
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Phillies Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2008-12-22
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: One Through Twenty-Five?Jay Jaffe2008-10-21
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: One Through Twenty-Five?Joe Sheehan2008-10-21
World Series Prospectus: Rays versus PhilliesJoe Sheehan2008-10-21
Playoff Prospectus: Dodgers versus PhilliesJay Jaffe2008-10-08
Playoff Prospectus: Phillies versus BrewersJay Jaffe2008-10-01
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Burning BullpensJay Jaffe2008-09-16
Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors, NL EastBryan Smith2007-05-31


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2013-05-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)In the wake of the scary J.A. Happ injury, I'm wondering how much attention today's pitching coaches pay to having pitchers land in a good defensive position. Is there more or less attention given to this issue now than in the past? (Needless to say, I don't mean to suggest by my question that Happ should have or could have defended himself from that screaming line drive.) Thanks.
(Rob from DC)
Coaches spend considerable time on PFP (pitcher fielding practice), yet the mechanical focus is tilted toward generating the best possible stuff, and some of the popular strategies are not conducive to finding a strong defensive position. Players with mechanical efficiency will often finish in position to make a play, but that efficiency is often sacrificed in the name of creating angles and deception. For example, a spine-tilting pitcher who lacks balance will typically finish by falling off the mound to the glove side. (Doug Thorburn)
2011-02-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Not much ca-- it's the single most popular cheese in the world! On a more serious note, am I crazy to think that J.A. Happ can actually earn his $1 salary in my NL-only 5x5 league?
(clete6 from cheese shop)
For the record, I enjoy all manifestations of the terpsichorean muse. As for Happ -- sure, he should be worth a buck. His walk and strikeout rates don't exactly shout "trust me", but so far he's kept runs off the board anyway, and for a single greenback you can do far, far worse. (Ken Funck)
2010-09-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)I'm convinced that J.A. Happ has the ability to potentially become a number 1 starter. Since joining the Astros he's only had 1 bad start (vrs. the Cardinals). Any merit to my thinking or am I way off base here?
(ryan rakickas from kentucky)
You're off base here. I see no reason why Happ cannot be successful as a middle of the rotation pitcher, or even a low-end #2, but his walks and strikeouts are not impressive, and I find it highly unlikely that he can remain successful on perceived velocity and a deceptive delivery for years to come. Plus, he isn't a 22-year old youngster coming into his own, either. What makes answers to questions like this problematic is that he really hasn't "failed" yet in the majors, so it's a matter of what analysts like me foresee against a year and a half of solid run-prevention marks. I'm rooting for Happ, and hope he can have a great career, but I also think that anyone expecting him to develop into a top of the line lefty is in for disappointment. (Eric Seidman)
2010-03-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Marc, I'm in an 8-team, NL-only, 5x5 keeper league. I have both Steven Strasburg and J.A. Happ at $8 each. Would you hold onto either? Both?
(GBSimons from Lunch)
$8 for Happ doesn't seem bad. I see him putting up a 4.30 ERA or so this year once everything regresses itself to where it belongs, but hey, maybe he improves his components a bit and deserves a better ERA (just not, you know, a sub-3 one). As for Strasburg, he's starting in the minors, but you may as well keep him for $8 so you don't have to overpay for him next year at auction. I like the prices more than the players for 2010, if that makes any sense. (Marc Normandin)
2009-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hello Joe. What does a high and low percentage of runners left on base indicate for a pitcher?
(ashitaka from long beach, ca)
My understanding of strand rate is that it doesn't reflect a particular skill, but is rather a number, like BABIP or HR/FB, that tends to stabilize over time. So a one-year spike or trough in that number--I think J.A. Happ had a very low one this year--is likely to regress towards the mean, dragging an ERA with it. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-09-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Garrett Jones would easily have 30+ home runs if he had come up with McCutchen. Are either viable ROY candidates in the NL?
(WilliamWallace from Pittsburgh)
Jones leads NL rookies in VORP, curiously enough, with McCutchen right behind him. As good as Jones has been, I view him as a journeyman having an unsustainable season, and I wonder if the Writers will see it the same way. I think Chris Coghlan also has to be in the conversation, as well as J.A. Happ and Tommy Hanson. (Steven Goldman)
2009-04-13 14:00:00 (link to chat)Following up on your point on the O's, couldn't the same be said of the Phillies and their decision to have Chan Ho Park in their rotation?
(mattymatty from Philly, PA)
I like that move actually. Park did a nice job of generating groundballs last year, making him a better fit for Citizens than he might otherwise be. With J.A. Happ they have the depth to make a switch to moderate both pitchers' workloads, and we know that Park has the versatility to work out of the bullpen.

The Phils' real problem is the condition of Cole Hamels' elbow. If it's not in great shape, they're screwed.

I'll take just a few more questions. (Jay Jaffe)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2009-10-15 17:00:002009 NLCS Game One (Phillies/Dodgers)What is the rationale behind J.A. Happ having become "Everyday" J.A. Happ or "Double-Duty" J.A. Happ or "Iron Man" J.A. Happ in the postseason? Too many off-days allow us to revert to 1915 usage patterns? (Steven Goldman)
 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


J.A. Happ has thrown 14,837 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2008 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (93mph), also mixing in a Sinker (93mph), Curve (78mph), Change (86mph) and Cutter (84mph).