Biographical

Portrait of Matt Guerrier

Matt Guerrier PTwins

Twins Player Cards | Twins Team Audit | Twins Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 35)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
35.0 3.86 1.30 23 2 1 1 0.3
Birth Date8-2-1978
Height6' 3"
Weight195 lbs
Age36 years, 2 months, 20 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
0.22010
0.12011
-0.32012
-0.02013
0.42014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2004 MIN 25 9 2 19.0 8.0 11.0 0 1 0 0 0 0 84 22 13 12 5 40 6 6 1 11 5.68 6.52 7.38 -3.2 -0.3
2005 MIN 26 43 0 71.7 0.0 71.7 0 3 0 0 0 0 306 71 29 27 6 106 24 19 3 46 3.39 3.99 4.32 9.9 1.2
2006 MIN 27 39 1 69.7 4.0 65.7 1 0 1 1 0 0 300 78 29 26 9 116 21 21 0 37 3.36 4.71 5.14 6.8 0.7
2007 MIN 28 73 0 88.0 0.0 88.0 2 4 1 3 0 0 351 71 23 23 9 110 21 20 5 68 2.35 3.98 3.85 12.9 1.3
2008 MIN 29 76 0 76.3 0.0 76.3 6 9 1 4 0 0 344 84 47 44 12 137 37 28 0 59 5.19 5.11 5.46 0.4 0.0
2009 MIN 30 79 0 76.3 0.0 76.3 5 1 1 3 0 0 304 58 23 20 10 95 16 14 4 47 2.36 4.40 4.88 5.8 0.6
2010 MIN 31 74 0 71.0 0.0 71.0 5 7 1 7 0 0 286 56 28 25 7 87 22 21 3 42 3.17 4.20 5.41 1.7 0.2
2011 LAN 32 70 0 66.3 0.0 66.3 4 3 1 4 0 0 282 59 31 30 4 84 25 20 0 50 4.07 3.40 4.31 1.3 0.1
2012 LAN 33 16 0 14.0 0.0 14.0 0 2 0 1 0 0 56 8 6 6 3 18 7 6 1 9 3.86 6.35 6.66 -2.9 -0.3
2013 CHN 34 15 0 12.7 0.0 12.7 2 1 0 2 0 0 51 11 4 3 0 15 5 5 0 9 2.13 2.78 3.03 1.6 0.2
2013 LAN 34 34 0 30.0 0.0 30.0 2 3 0 1 0 0 130 32 18 16 3 48 12 10 1 21 4.80 4.22 5.09 -1.8 -0.2
2014 MIN 35 27 0 28.0 0.0 28.0 0 1 0 1 0 0 124 30 12 12 1 41 10 7 1 12 3.86 3.95 4.86 0.6 0.1
Career5553623.012.0611.0273562700261858026324469897206177194113.524.334.8533.13.5

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
1999 WNS A+ 4 0 3.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1999 BRI Rk 21 0 25.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2000 WNS A+ 30 0 34.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2000 BIR AA 23 0 23.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001 BIR AA 15 15 98.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001 CHR AAA 12 12 81.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001 Mes Wnt 7 6 20.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 NAS AAA 27 26 157.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .286 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 NAS AAA 20 19 105.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .284 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 MIN MLB 9 2 19.0 7.38 50 .301 .264 .330 .423 .259 .279 98 -2.8 -0.3 -3.2 -0.3
2004 ROC AAA 24 23 144.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .271 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 MIN MLB 43 0 71.7 4.32 107 .260 .267 .327 .424 .262 .286 98 10.1 1.0 9.9 1.2
2006 MIN MLB 39 1 69.7 5.14 99 .258 .273 .334 .434 .257 .296 103 6.8 0.7 6.8 0.7
2006 NBR AA 4 0 8.1 2.61 136 -.017 .245 .326 .366 .256 .167 30 1.9 0.2 1.9 0.2
2007 MIN MLB 73 0 88.0 3.85 116 .221 .270 .334 .418 .262 .250 94 12.9 1.3 12.9 1.3
2008 MIN MLB 76 0 76.3 5.46 82 .282 .269 .336 .426 .263 .305 98 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0
2009 MIN MLB 79 0 76.3 4.88 103 .213 .267 .332 .423 .260 .211 104 5.8 0.6 5.8 0.6
2010 MIN MLB 74 0 71.0 5.41 88 .219 .259 .326 .403 .257 .231 108 1.7 0.2 1.7 0.2
2011 LAN MLB 70 0 66.3 4.31 89 .241 .253 .316 .389 .258 .271 93 1.1 0.1 1.3 0.1
2012 LAN MLB 16 0 14.0 6.66 35 .240 .259 .326 .422 .269 .139 94 -2.9 -0.3 -2.9 -0.3
2012 RCU A+ 5 3 5.0 2.68 148 .155 .270 .348 .415 .284 .231 102 2.4 0.2 2.4 0.2
2013 CHN MLB 15 0 12.7 3.03 129 .236 .254 .318 .398 .259 .297 105 1.6 0.2 1.6 0.2
2013 LAN MLB 34 0 30.0 5.09 72 .285 .244 .306 .376 .250 .312 98 -1.6 -0.2 -1.8 -0.2
2014 MIN MLB 27 0 28.0 4.86 94 .260 .261 .321 .405 .267 .290 111 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.1
2014 NBR AA 3 0 4.0 1.88 159 .285 .263 .328 .434 .268 .444 102 1.4 0.2 1.4 0.2
2014 ROC AAA 4 0 5.0 8.52 18 .340 .246 .322 .379 .245 .294 104 -1.7 -0.2 -1.7 -0.2

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
1999 BRI Rk 5 0 10 21 0 25.7 18 14 37 1 0% .000 6.3 4.9 0.4 13.0 1.25 1.05 0.0 0.0
1999 WNS A+ 0 0 2 4 0 3.3 3 0 5 0 0% .000 8.2 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.91 5.45 0.0 0.0
2000 WNS A+ 0 3 19 30 0 34.7 25 12 35 0 0% .000 6.5 3.1 0.0 9.1 1.07 1.30 0.0 0.0
2000 BIR AA 3 1 7 23 0 23.3 17 12 19 1 0% .000 6.6 4.6 0.4 7.3 1.24 2.70 0.0 0.0
2001 BIR AA 11 3 0 15 15 98.7 85 32 75 8 0% .000 7.8 2.9 0.7 6.8 1.19 3.10 0.0 0.0
2001 CHR AAA 7 1 0 12 12 81.3 75 18 43 7 0% .000 8.3 2.0 0.8 4.8 1.14 3.54 0.0 0.0
2001 Mes Wnt 0 2 0 7 6 20.0 16 9 21 1 0% .000 7.2 4.0 0.5 9.4 1.25 3.60 0.0 0.0
2002 NAS AAA 7 12 0 27 26 157.0 154 47 130 20 0% .286 8.8 2.7 1.1 7.5 1.28 4.59 0.0 0.0
2003 NAS AAA 4 6 0 20 19 105.3 108 18 78 15 0% .284 9.2 1.5 1.3 6.7 1.20 4.53 0.0 0.0
2004 ROC AAA 5 10 0 24 23 144.0 135 25 97 15 0% .271 8.4 1.6 0.9 6.1 1.11 3.19 0.0 0.0
2004 MIN MLB 0 1 0 9 2 19.0 22 6 11 5 45% .279 10.4 2.8 2.4 5.2 1.47 5.68 -3.2 -0.3
2005 MIN MLB 0 3 0 43 0 71.7 71 24 46 6 49% .286 8.9 3.0 0.8 5.8 1.33 3.39 9.9 1.2
2006 NBR AA 2 0 0 4 0 8.1 3 3 10 0 33% .167 3.3 3.3 0.0 11.1 0.74 1.11 1.9 0.2
2006 MIN MLB 1 0 1 39 1 69.7 78 21 37 9 47% .296 10.1 2.7 1.2 4.8 1.42 3.36 6.8 0.7
2007 MIN MLB 2 4 1 73 0 88.0 71 21 68 9 48% .250 7.3 2.1 0.9 7.0 1.05 2.35 12.9 1.3
2008 MIN MLB 6 9 1 76 0 76.3 84 37 59 12 47% .305 9.9 4.4 1.4 7.0 1.59 5.19 0.4 0.0
2009 MIN MLB 5 1 1 79 0 76.3 58 16 47 10 44% .211 6.8 1.9 1.2 5.5 0.97 2.36 5.8 0.6
2010 MIN MLB 5 7 1 74 0 71.0 56 22 42 7 48% .231 7.1 2.8 0.9 5.3 1.10 3.17 1.7 0.2
2011 LAN MLB 4 3 1 70 0 66.3 59 25 50 4 42% .271 8.0 3.4 0.5 6.8 1.27 4.07 1.3 0.1
2012 LAN MLB 0 2 0 16 0 14.0 8 7 9 3 38% .139 5.1 4.5 1.9 5.8 1.07 3.86 -2.9 -0.3
2012 RCU A+ 0 0 0 5 3 5.0 3 0 5 0 62% .231 5.4 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.60 3.60 2.4 0.2
2013 LAN MLB 2 3 0 34 0 30.0 32 12 21 3 46% .312 9.6 3.6 0.9 6.3 1.47 4.80 -1.8 -0.2
2013 CHN MLB 2 1 0 15 0 12.7 11 5 9 0 43% .297 7.8 3.6 0.0 6.4 1.26 2.13 1.6 0.2
2014 ROC AAA 0 1 1 4 0 5.0 7 2 3 2 11% .294 12.6 3.6 3.6 5.4 1.80 7.20 -1.7 -0.2
2014 MIN MLB 0 1 0 27 0 28.0 30 10 12 1 41% .290 9.6 3.2 0.3 3.9 1.43 3.86 0.6 0.1
2014 NBR AA 0 0 0 3 0 4.0 4 2 5 0 44% .444 9.0 4.5 0.0 11.2 1.50 0.00 1.4 0.2

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 1269 0.4752 0.4897 0.7790 0.6750 0.3198 0.8747 0.5962 0.2177
2009 1049 0.5167 0.5033 0.8216 0.6384 0.3570 0.8902 0.6906 0.1765
2010 1024 0.4912 0.4941 0.7826 0.6620 0.3321 0.8799 0.5954 0.2174
2011 997 0.4965 0.4859 0.7479 0.6505 0.3227 0.8416 0.5617 0.2521
2012 216 0.4722 0.4815 0.7404 0.6471 0.3333 0.8333 0.5789 0.2596
2013 665 0.4812 0.4714 0.7668 0.6656 0.2899 0.8592 0.5700 0.2332
2014 431 0.4664 0.5023 0.7963 0.7114 0.3174 0.8811 0.6301 0.1991
Career56510.48950.49080.78050.66210.32630.86980.60630.2181

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-04-02 2014-04-13 Minors 11 0 - Not Disclosed -
2013-08-08 2013-09-30 60-DL 53 49 Right Elbow Surgery Flexor Mass 2013-08-16 -
2013-06-05 2013-06-06 DTD 1 1 Right Thumb Contusion Batted Ball - -
2012-04-19 2012-08-30 60-DL 133 119 Right Elbow Inflammation Had PRP Injection - -
2012-03-12 2012-03-30 Camp 18 0 - Low Back Soreness - -
2006-06-09 2006-08-01 15-DL 53 45 Right Thumb Fracture Batted Ball -
2003-07-18 2003-08-11 Minors 24 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation Tendonitis - -
2003-04-03 2003-04-24 Minors 21 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation Tendonitis - -
2002-07-30 2002-08-10 Minors 11 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation Biceps - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 MIN $
2013 LAN $4,750,000
2012 LAN $4,750,000
2011 LAN $2,500,000
2010 MIN $3,150,000
2009 MIN $1,475,000
2008 MIN $950,000
2007 MIN $407,500
2006 MIN $343,500
2005 MIN $318,500
YearsDescriptionSalary
9 yrPrevious$18,644,500
9 yrTotal$18,644,500

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
9 y 56 dJoe Bick1 year (2014)

Details
  • 1 year (2014). Signed by Minnesota as a free agent 1/29/14 (minor-league contract). Salary of $1M in majors. Released by Minnesota 3/24/14. Re-signed by Minnesota as a free agent 3/25/14 (minor-league contract). Contract selected by Minnesota 5/8/14. DFA by Minnesota 7/24/14 (refused assignment 7/29/14).
  • 3 years/$12M (2011-13). Signed by LA Dodgers as a free agent 12/16/10. $3M signing bonus (paid in 4 installments 2011-14). 11:$1.5M, 12:$3.75M, 13:$3.75M. Acquired by Chicago Cubs in trade 7/2/13 after being DFA by LA Dodgers 6/30/13.
  • 1 year/$3.15M (2010). Re-signed by Minnesota 1/19/10 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$1.475M (2009). Re-signed by Minnesota 2/5/09 (avoided arbitration, $1.75M-$1.2M).
  • 1 year/$0.95M (2008). Re-signed by Minnesota 1/24/08 (avoided arbitration, $1.15M-$0.75M).
  • 1 year/$0.4075M (2007). Re-signed by Minnesota 3/07.
  • 1 year/$0.3435M (2006). Re-signed by Minnesota 3/06.
  • 1 year/$0.3185M (2005). Re-signed by Minnesota 12/04.
  • 1 year (2004). Claimed by Minnesota off waivers from Pittsburgh 11/20/03.
  • Acquired by Pittsburgh in trade from Chicago White Sox 3/27/02.
  • Drafted by Chicago White Sox 1999 (10-309) (Kent State).

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 3 1.4 1 56 0 51.6 41 13 34 5 .237 1.05 2.82 3.06 10.9 1.1
80o 2.6 1.1 0.9 49 0 45.7 39 13 30 4 .251 1.13 3.16 3.44 7.6 0.8
70o 2.4 1 0.8 45 0 41.6 37 12 28 4 .261 1.20 3.42 3.72 5.5 0.6
60o 2.1 0.9 0.7 41 0 38.2 36 12 25 4 .269 1.25 3.64 3.96 4.0 0.4
50o 1.9 0.8 0.6 38 0 35.1 34 11 23 4 .277 1.30 3.85 4.18 2.8 0.3
40o 1.8 0.7 0.5 35 0 32.1 33 11 21 4 .285 1.36 4.06 4.41 1.7 0.2
30o 1.6 0.6 0.5 31 0 28.9 31 10 19 3 .294 1.42 4.29 4.66 0.6 0.1
20o 1.3 0.5 0.4 27 0 25.3 28 9 17 3 .304 1.49 4.56 4.96 -0.3 -0.0
10o 1.1 0.4 0.3 22 0 20.4 24 8 14 3 .319 1.59 4.95 5.38 -1.3 -0.1
Weighted Mean1.90.80.637034.43311234.2751.293.824.152.80.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
22% 34% 25% 13% 76%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20153631156052521931745.2751.374.354.739.13.35.41.20.1
20163721148044491428545.3001.424.504.899.92.85.71.00.0
20173831155051521632645.2771.334.144.509.22.85.61.10.3
20183931153049511531745.2811.344.264.639.32.75.71.30.2
20194031155051531631745.2821.364.304.679.42.85.51.20.2
20204121149046491527645.2881.404.514.909.73.05.31.20.0
20214221141038411222545.2871.414.705.119.82.95.31.2-0.1
20224321138035391119545.2901.434.805.2110.02.84.91.3-0.1
20234421138035391119545.2901.434.845.2610.02.84.91.3-0.1

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
16.65.910.67.18.57.848.7

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 75)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 91 Scott Downs 2011 2.01
2 89 Joe Beimel 2012 0.00 DNP
3 89 Dave Smith 1990 2.69
4 89 Steve Kline 2008 0.00 DNP
5 88 Javier Lopez 2013 2.29
6 87 Mariano Rivera 2005 2.07
7 86 Julian Tavarez 2008 6.91
8 85 Kent Tekulve 1982 3.29
9 82 J.C. Romero 2011 5.11
10 82 Jason Isringhausen 2008 5.91
11 82 Roberto Hernandez 2000 4.05
12 82 Hideki Okajima 2011 4.32
13 81 Heath Bell 2013 4.11
14 81 Dan Quisenberry 1988 5.26
15 81 Jose Valverde 2013 5.59
16 81 Steve Mingori 1979 6.56
17 81 Scott Schoeneweis 2009 7.88
18 81 LaTroy Hawkins 2008 4.35
19 80 Ramon Hernandez 1976 3.43
20 80 Paul Quantrill 2004 5.19
21 79 Steve Reed 2000 4.98
22 78 Steve Howe 1993 5.51
23 78 Sparky Lyle 1980 4.94
24 78 Ron Perranoski 1971 7.12
25 77 Francisco Cordero 2010 3.96
26 77 Jeff Russell 1997 0.00 DNP
27 77 George Sherrill 2012 27.00
28 77 Brian Fuentes 2011 4.63
29 77 Akinori Otsuka 2007 2.78
30 77 Ricardo Rincon 2005 4.82
31 77 Chad Bradford 2010 0.00 DNP
32 76 Scot Shields 2011 0.00 DNP
33 76 Mike Jackson 2000 0.00 DNP
34 76 Antonio Alfonseca 2007 5.62
35 76 Mike Timlin 2001 4.21
36 76 Stu Miller 1963 2.88
37 75 Luis Ayala 2013 3.00
38 75 Jeff Shaw 2002 0.00 DNP
39 75 Jason Grilli 2012 3.07
40 75 Gene Garber 1983 5.79
41 75 Fernando Rodney 2012 1.08
42 74 Jamey Wright 2010 5.09
43 74 Ray King 2009 0.00 DNP
44 74 Ted Abernathy 1968 2.86
45 74 Bill Landrum 1993 3.74
46 74 Jim Konstanty 1952 4.73
47 73 Matt Thornton 2012 3.74
48 73 Scott Eyre 2007 4.47
49 73 Jim Mecir 2005 3.74
50 73 Mike MacDougal 2012 7.94
51 73 Kevin Gregg 2013 3.77
52 73 Dave Giusti 1975 3.73 DNP
53 73 Clay Carroll 1976 3.14
54 73 J.J. Putz 2012 2.98
55 72 Anthony Telford 2001 15.43
56 72 Jason Grimsley 2003 5.64
57 72 Jason Frasor 2013 2.76
58 72 Kiko Calero 2010 0.00 DNP
59 72 Jerry Reuss 1984 4.64
60 71 Mike Magnante 2000 4.99
61 71 Jeff Nelson 2002 4.14
62 71 Chad Durbin 2013 9.56
63 71 Harry Dorish 1957 0.00 DNP
64 70 Randy Choate 2011 2.55
65 70 Buddy Groom 2001 3.82
66 70 Bob Howry 2009 3.68
67 70 Hal Woodeshick 1968 0.00 DNP
68 70 Jim Perry 1971 4.50
69 70 Rafael Betancourt 2010 3.61
70 70 Jim Kern 1984 8.50
71 70 Tim Hudson 2011 3.60
72 69 Derek Lowe 2008 3.58
73 69 Tom Glavine 2001 3.78
74 69 Tony Castillo 1998 8.33
75 69 Grant Jackson 1978 3.72
76 69 Kevin Brown 2000 2.97
77 69 Bob Lemon 1956 3.63
78 69 Bob Locker 1973 3.39
79 69 Hoyt Wilhelm 1958 2.82
80 68 Joe Nathan 2010 0.00 DNP
81 68 Paul Mirabella 1989 8.22
82 68 Mike Marshall 1978 2.91
83 68 Bill Swift 1997 7.85
84 68 Salomon Torres 2007 5.81
85 68 Paul Lindblad 1977 4.56
86 68 Kerry Wood 2012 8.31
87 68 Mike Henneman 1997 0.00 DNP
88 68 Billy Wagner 2007 2.90
89 68 Tug McGraw 1980 1.56
90 68 Ken Forsch 1982 4.22
91 68 Joe Hoerner 1972 4.80
92 67 Ben Weber 2005 8.03
93 67 Trever Miller 2008 4.36
94 67 Roy Face 1963 4.39
95 67 Ron Reed 1978 2.73
96 67 Hiroki Kuroda 2010 3.99
97 67 Lindy McDaniel 1971 5.30
98 67 Mike Myers 2004 4.64
99 67 Terry Forster 1987 0.00 DNP
100 67 Shigetoshi Hasegawa 2004 5.56

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .218 .319 .343 .236
11 vs R (Multi) .264 .318 .395 .270
18 Split (Multi) -.046 .001 -.051 -.034
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .200 .304 .300 .216
31 vs R (2013) .313 .364 .455 .311
38 Split (2013) -.113 -.059 -.155 -.095
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Guerrier's three-year, $12 million deal looked like a bad idea the moment it was signed in December 2010—money that could have been better spent to retain Russell Martin, let's recall—and looks even worse now that he missed most of the 2012 season with elbow inflammation. When Guerrier did pitch, during the season's first two weeks and its final month, he was lousy. He'll make $4.75 million in 2013, and likely be no more than the fourth or fifth most important righty in the bullpen after Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Belisario, and Guerra. Nice work if you can get it.
2012 Signed to a three-year, $12 million deal at a time when the Dodgers could have better spent the money elsewhere—retaining Russell Martin, say, or sending James Loney on an interstellar voyage—Guerrier turned in a thoroughly unremarkable season. While his strikeout and homer rates were better than his career marks, and his walk rate wasn't so bad once you account for intentional walks, he allowed 19 inherited runners to score (out of 41), tied for the league lead. This is a pitcher who's been worth all of 0.5 WARP with a 5.06 FRA over the past four seasons. Feh.
2011 Guerrier has been one of the most durable relievers in the major leagues over the last four seasons, pitching in at least 73 games each year and accumulating a total of 302 games in that span. He is far from overpowering, with a fastball that sits in the 89-91 range, but he has an outstanding slider, a good curveball, and mixes his pitches like a starter. The Twins toyed with the idea of making him the closer last spring when Joe Nathan was lost for the season, but ultimately decided that he would be better-suited for the set-up role in which he had already experienced so much success. Over the winter, the Dodgers gambled a three-year, $12-million contract, a foolhardy gesture given the inherent instability of reliever performances—even reliable ol' Guerrier mixed in a 5.19 ERA one year.
2010 After leading the AL in appearances in 2008, Guerrier repeated the feat in 2009, only this time he also pitched fantastically well in a more significant role. A classic fastball/slider type, Guerrier found a way to maintain his low-90s velocity while suddenly pounding the strike zone, and when you can cut your walk rate, good things tend to happen. He'll likely regress a bit, but he's still part of a great set-up crew for Joe Nathan, with Crain seemingly repaired, Mijares arrived, Jon Rauch added, and Pat Neshek recovering.
2009 It was no Guerrier and Ives print for Matt after three solid years in the Twins' pen. He was due for a comedown after a career-best 2007 fueled by an increased strikeout rate and favorable bounces on balls in play. Last year he retained the former, but predictably lost the latter. Worse, Guerrier became vulnerable to the long ball down the stretch in 2007, and that carried over for a career-high home-run rate in '08. As in '07, Guerrier fell apart in the last two months, getting pounded for a 10.07 ERA in his final 25 appearances. His salary is now rising through his arbitration years, so the ever-frugal Twins will need to be sure that they're not sinking scarce resources into a failing arm.
2008 Injuries to Crain and Dennys Reyes gave Guerrier an opportunity to move out of his no-leverage role into something a bit meatier, and he responded by missing more bats than ever before on his way to a career year. The extra work he earned caught up to him down the stretch, as he allowed six homers in his final 21 appearances. Look for him to regress a little this year, while still being an effective seventh-inning reliever.
2007 As a rookie in 2005, Guerrier was a serviceable reliever--nothing spectacular, but he got the job done more often than not. Last year, his hit rate went up and his strikeout rate dropped to borderline unacceptable. At 28, it`s not like he`s going to get better, and, while he`s not yet in danger of needing to look for another job, if he takes even the smallest step backward, he`ll probably need to update his resum
2006 `Garbage` is such an ugly term. Whether applied to innings or items, it conveys the idea that somehow these things aren`t useful. We live in a time when euphemisms are very much in vogue, so why not plug in `re-purposed,` and give Guerrier his due for taking those re-purposed innings and helping finish ballgames that superior talents were better kept out of. In today`s hyper-specialized pens, there aren`t a lot of out-and-out middle relievers, so it`s nice to see an item from the `80s, even if it`s as anachronistic as a Members Only jacket.
2005 A slider-fastball guy with pedestrian heat, Guerrier was snagged off waivers from the Pirates last winter. (Guerrier had been dealt to Pittsburgh by the White Sox for Damaso Marte, not one of Dave Littlefield's finer moments.) You'd think that Travis Miller might have weaned the Twins off overhyped Kent State prospects, but a first good season in his fourth try at Triple-A was apparently enough to make him a keeper on their 40-man roster for now. He'll be considered for the fifth starter slot, and perhaps win it if Mays struggles and Gassner doesn't impress.

BP Articles

Matt Guerrier is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
In A Pickle: How To Lose Lots of One-Run GamesJason Wojciechowski2014-09-15
Overthinking It: May in Catcher FramingBen Lindbergh2014-06-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: My Closer Lost His Job and Now I Hate EverybodyMike Gianella2014-05-19
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Call MiloneR.J. Anderson2014-05-12
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 17, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-17
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 15, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-15
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 10, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-10
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 9, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-09
Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 7/14Ben Lindbergh2013-07-15
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Of Baltimore and Bonus SlotsSam Miller2013-07-03
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 3, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-03
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 1, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-01
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 6, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-06
This article requires BP Premium accessArbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Sergio RomoBradford Doolittle2013-02-15
This article requires BP Premium accessArbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Sergio RomoNick J. Faleris2013-02-15
This article requires BP Premium accessArbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Sergio RomoBen Lindbergh2013-02-15
In A Pickle: The Disunited States of AmericaJason Wojciechowski2013-01-17
This article requires BP Premium accessPunk Hits: Will the Yankees West Match The Yankees' Success?Ian Miller2012-08-29
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Snider and Lincoln Change Scenery, LA Adds League, and Thames Joins the M'sBen Lindbergh2012-07-31
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Snider and Lincoln Change Scenery, LA Adds League, and Thames Joins the M'sKevin Goldstein2012-07-31
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Going to the Bullpen for WinsDerek Carty2012-04-26
BP Unfiltered: Watching Pedro AlvarezR.J. Anderson2012-04-16
This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: Mets MiseryStephani Bee2012-03-16
This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: Mets MiseryCorey Dawkins2012-03-16
This article requires BP Premium accessDivide and Conquer, NL West: Ebbing and FlowingGeoff Young2011-08-02
Painting the Black: Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 2R.J. Anderson2011-07-14
This article requires BP Premium accessDivide and Conquer, NL West: The Dodgers Were Not Built to Wait Until Next YearGeoff Young2011-07-12
Contractual Matters: Los Angeles Payroll LimboJeff Euston2011-07-01
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: RelieversMike Petriello2011-06-09
Prospectus Hit and Run: Anatomy of a CollapseJay Jaffe2011-06-08
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks in the BullpenMike Petriello2011-06-02
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: NL: The Valdez Non-DisasterJay Jaffe2011-05-31
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks in the BullpenMike Petriello2011-05-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks in the BullpenMike Petriello2011-05-19
Royal Revolution: The Bullpen Youth MovementMike Petriello2011-05-18
Divide and Conquer, NL West: We Did Everything We Needed to Do, and Then We Didn'tGeoff Young2011-05-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Value Picks in the BullpenMike Petriello2011-05-05
Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Bullpen BlowoutJay Jaffe2011-04-05
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Two Twins Are Better Than OneJohn Perrotto2011-04-01
Team Injury Projection: Los Angeles DodgersMarc Normandin2011-04-01
Team Injury Projection: Los Angeles DodgersCorey Dawkins2011-04-01
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Donnie ManagerJohn Perrotto2011-03-21
This article requires BP Premium accessContractual Matters: AL Central Payroll ProjectionsJeff Euston2011-03-16
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Nick Johnson, Chad Durbin, and DregsChristina Kahrl2011-03-03
BP Unfiltered: Duensing Is Done SwingingJohn Perrotto2011-03-02
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Winning the Winter, NL EditionTommy Bennett2011-02-15
This article requires BP Premium accessContractual Matters: NL West Payroll ProjectionsJeff Euston2011-02-09
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Weekly Roundup, January 28-February 3Christina Kahrl2011-02-04
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Insurance PoliciesJay Jaffe2011-01-28
This article requires BP Premium accessExpanded Horizons: No One Man Should have All that GlowerTommy Bennett2011-01-26
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Perspective: The Twins' and Rays' Bullpen SituationsChristina Kahrl2011-01-20
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Perspective: The Twins' and Rays' Bullpen SituationsKevin Goldstein2011-01-20
This article requires BP Premium accessContractual Matters: The Middle Relief SqueezeJeff Euston2011-01-10
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: NL West RoundupChristina Kahrl2010-12-30
On the Beat: One Last ChanceJohn Perrotto2010-12-28
This article requires BP Premium accessChecking the Numbers: Relievers and the Value of Perfect InformationEric Seidman2010-12-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Relief PitchersMike Petriello2010-12-16
This article requires BP Premium accessGM for a Day: Minnesota TwinsKen Funck2010-11-15
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Scioscia's Tree is Branching OutJohn Perrotto2010-11-09
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Answering Questions, Dusting BroomsJay Jaffe2010-10-10
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Stop Me If You've Heard This OneJay Jaffe2010-10-08
One-Hoppers: Front Six LDS RostersChristina Kahrl2010-10-06
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Twins vs. YankeesJay Jaffe2010-10-05
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: The National Redistribution EffortKevin Goldstein2010-07-30
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: The National Redistribution EffortChristina Kahrl2010-07-30
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Relief PitchersMike Petriello2010-07-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Duck And CoverCraig Brown2010-07-20
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Q&A: Michael CuddyerDavid Laurila2010-05-28
One-Hoppers: Game Story: Twins at Yankees, May 15Jay Jaffe2010-05-16
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: AL Roster CleanupChristina Kahrl2010-04-06
BP Unfiltered: UPDATED AL Projected Opening Day RostersJohn Perrotto2010-04-01
This article requires BP Premium accessExpanded Horizons: AL Central Battle RoyaleTommy Bennett2010-03-30
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Relief PitchersLee Panas2010-03-25
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: Depth Chart/PFM Update, Part 2Clay Davenport2010-03-21
This article requires BP Premium accessBetween The Numbers: The Cost of Joe Nathan's InjuryRussell A. Carleton2010-03-09
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Replacing NathanCraig Brown2010-03-09
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTeam Health Reports: Minnesota TwinsWill Carroll2010-03-08
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: Thome, Taveras, and 10,000Christina Kahrl2010-02-02
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: International Arbitration Avoidance DayChristina Kahrl2010-01-20
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Action: AL Re-GiftingChristina Kahrl2010-01-07
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Yankees versus Twins LDSJoe Sheehan2009-10-07
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Post-Season PensChristina Kahrl2009-10-05
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: Post-season BullpensJoe Sheehan2009-09-24
This article requires BP Premium accessChanging Speeds: A Fox Screen TestKen Funck2009-07-28
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Moves and GroovesChristina Kahrl2009-06-23
Game Story: Twins versus Sox, May 19Christina Kahrl2009-05-20
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Ledger Domain: Salary Arbitration Beats Free AgencyMaury Brown2009-02-25
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: All the MovesChristina Kahrl2009-02-10
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Burning BullpensJay Jaffe2008-09-16
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: West by CentralChristina Kahrl2008-08-25
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: AL Central Moves and IssuesChristina Kahrl2008-07-15
This article requires BP Premium accessCan Of Corn: Mock BlockbusterDayn Perry2008-04-04
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: It Doesn't CountJoe Sheehan2008-03-18
This article requires BP Premium accessEvery Given Sunday: Competing with the KidsJohn Perrotto2008-03-16
Transaction Analysis: Backup Wheels within WheelsChristina Kahrl2008-01-29
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Home Cooking and the Combo PlatterJay Jaffe2007-08-07
Every Given Sunday: Twins and TweaksJohn Perrotto2007-07-15
Under The Knife: Back In ActionWill Carroll2007-07-12
Transaction Analysis Special: Free Talent All-StarsChristina Kahrl2007-07-10
Prospectus Toolbox: Reliever ToolsDerek Jacques2007-06-05
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction of the Day: Six Reshuffled DecksChristina Kahrl2007-05-18
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Matchups: The Knee-Jerk All-StarsJim Baker2007-04-17
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: February 21-28, 2007Christina Kahrl2007-03-01
Playoff Prospectus: Roster ReviewsChristina Kahrl2006-10-05
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Twins versus AthleticsJoe Sheehan2006-10-03
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: September 11-14, 2006Christina Kahrl2006-09-15
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Today: Bullet Point WednesdayJoe Sheehan2006-09-06
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: August 23-24Christina Kahrl2006-08-25
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: July 31-August 3Christina Kahrl2006-08-04
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Matchups: Since the All-Star BreakJim Baker2006-07-28
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: June 8-12, 2006Christina Kahrl2006-06-13
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Stat StuffKevin Goldstein2006-04-27
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: March 29-30Christina Kahrl2006-03-31
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Matchups: Small Sample Size BuffetJim Baker2005-04-19
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: August 30-September 15Christina Kahrl2004-09-17
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: August 17-23, 2004Christina Kahrl2004-08-24
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: August 9-10Christina Kahrl2004-08-14
Prospectus Triple Play: Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, San Francisco GiantsBaseball Prospectus2004-07-19
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: June 28-30Christina Kahrl2004-07-02
Prospectus Triple Play: Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, San Francisco GiantsBaseball Prospectus2004-06-21
This article requires BP Premium access"This is Our Fault": The McClatchy Ownership as Team Builder, Part IVSteven Goldman2003-09-02
Transaction Analysis: March 26-30, 2002Christina Kahrl2002-04-02
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: March 14-18, 2002Christina Kahrl2002-03-21


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2011-06-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Just recently made a trade in one of my fantasy leagues. I get Mark Melancon and Brandon Lyon, but I give up Rick Porcello. I plan to have Melancon and Lyon replace Matt Guerrier and Phil Coke, and I will replace Porcello with James McDonald. Thoughts?
(Big Bob from Cleveland)
My first thought is that the Yankees might like to have Melancon right about now. Sounds like a plan to me, though I know the fantasy cognoscenti always say it's easy to find saves. (Ben Lindbergh)
2010-12-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)MIN has had good luck in getting mileage out of retread relief pitchers. Any guesses who they turn to this year? I think they still need one more and the organization isn't bursting with anyone that didn't underwhelm last year.
(Cris E from St Paul, MN)
Mahay could go there and produce well as a LOOGY. I'd still like to see them give Condrey another shot if he can stay healthy. Maybe Grant Balfour too. But this brings up a very good point. The Twins got guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier from the scrapheap, and these guys each just signed lucrative three-year deals. Finding ways to get good bullpen production without spending any money is, to me, the next big market inefficiency. (Eric Seidman)
2010-12-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Am I crazy to think that the Twins can put together a darn good bullpen even with losing Crain, Guerrier, Rauch, and Fuentes (assuming they all leave)? I think it's very funny that Twins fans complain that Jose Mijares is inconsistent but also worry that Crain will leave; call for Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney for nearly two years, but now fear the bullpen will be awful when they might get a chance; and don't trust any low-cost options when a guy like Guerrier was originally claimed off waivers. If the Twins can sort through the many options, they could piece together a very effective group. That being said, any established relievers you would recommed for relatively cheap?
(russadams from St. Paul)
You're not crazy, and you can find the next Matt Guerrier. I think Grant Balfour's worth getting, and Arthur Rhodes and Chan Ho Park or even Kevin Gregg are names worth spending seven figures for. Kerry Wood, Dan Wheeler, an NRI for Justin Duchscherer... it's still a buyer's market as far as finding relief help, given the multiplicity of alternatives. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-03-15 16:00:00 (link to chat)The set-up man most likely to be a full time closer by June 1st is _____________ ?
(tommybones from brooklyn)
Does Matt Guerrier count? The answer to this is probably "the guy who's on the team of the closer who has a season ending elbow injury." June 1st is a very quick deadline for a team to switch closers. Most of the time, teams are a little more sheepish about it... (Russell A. Carleton)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.

 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Matt Guerrier has thrown 6,175 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (90mph) and Cutter (88mph), also mixing in a Fourseam Fastball (91mph), Change (83mph) and Curve (78mph).