Biographical

Portrait of J.R. Graham

J.R. Graham PBraves

Braves Player Cards | Braves Team Audit | Braves Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 24)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
47.0 4.42 1.38 32 2 4 0 0.1
Birth Date1-14-1990
Height6' 0"
Weight195 lbs
Age24 years, 9 months, 11 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.12014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2011 DNV Rk 13 8 57.7 4.00 119 .210 .265 .335 .415 .265 .323 94 10.6 1.0 10.6 1.0
2012 LYN A+ 17 17 102.7 4.81 92 .217 .258 .324 .393 .264 .269 93 3.8 0.4 3.8 0.4
2012 MIS AA 9 9 45.3 4.09 103 .226 .253 .330 .383 .261 .266 96 5.6 0.6 6.2 0.7
2013 MIS AA 8 8 35.7 3.14 123 .248 .238 .311 .350 .250 .348 95 6.4 0.7 6.4 0.7
2014 MIS AA 27 19 71.3 4.47 87 .288 .251 .322 .381 .265 .328 90 6.0 0.6 8.7 1.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2011 DNV Rk 5 2 0 13 8 57.7 52 13 52 0 60% .323 8.1 2.0 0.0 8.1 1.13 1.72 10.6 1.0
2012 MIS AA 3 1 0 9 9 45.3 35 17 42 2 56% .266 6.9 3.4 0.4 8.3 1.15 3.18 6.2 0.7
2012 LYN A+ 9 1 0 17 17 102.7 88 17 68 6 59% .269 7.7 1.5 0.5 6.0 1.02 2.63 3.8 0.4
2013 MIS AA 1 3 0 8 8 35.7 39 10 28 0 68% .348 9.8 2.5 0.0 7.1 1.37 4.04 6.4 0.7
2014 MIS AA 1 5 0 27 19 71.3 79 26 50 2 53% .328 10.0 3.3 0.3 6.3 1.47 5.55 8.7 1.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-06-27 2014-07-19 Minors 22 0 Right Upper Arm Tendonitis -
2013-05-14 2013-09-05 Minors 114 0 Right Shoulder Strain - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 1.6 1.5 0 5 5 44.3 36 12 29 4 .264 1.10 3.28 3.57 4.1 0.4
80o 1.6 1.6 0 5 5 37.9 34 11 25 4 .280 1.19 3.68 4 2.6 0.3
70o 1.5 1.7 0 5 5 33.5 32 11 22 3 .291 1.26 3.97 4.31 1.6 0.2
60o 1.5 1.8 0 5 5 29.8 29 10 20 3 .301 1.32 4.22 4.59 0.8 0.1
50o 1.4 1.8 0 5 5 26.5 27 9 18 3 .311 1.38 4.46 4.85 -0.0 -0.0
40o 1.4 1.9 0 5 5 23.2 25 8 15 3 .320 1.44 4.70 5.11 -0.8 -0.1
30o 1.4 2 0 5 5 19.8 22 8 13 2 .330 1.50 4.97 5.4 -1.6 -0.2
20o 1.3 2.1 0 5 5 16.0 19 6 11 2 .342 1.58 5.28 5.74 -2.5 -0.3
10o 1.2 2.2 0 5 5 10.8 14 5 7 2 .359 1.70 5.73 6.23 -3.8 -0.4
Weighted Mean1.41.805525.6269173.3081.364.424.810.10.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201525101003232206194651612254.3041.263.824.158.52.87.01.01.4
2016268902525146150451081854.3171.344.394.779.22.86.71.1-0.0
2017279902727166165481221954.3091.294.114.479.02.66.61.00.5
2018289902727163160461221854.3091.263.974.318.82.56.71.00.9
2019297802323138137401021654.3081.284.064.428.92.66.61.00.6
2020308802424139136401061654.3081.273.964.308.82.66.91.00.8
202131770222213213139971654.3081.294.094.459.02.76.61.10.5
202232770212112312336891554.3071.294.114.479.02.66.51.10.4
202333660202011511432861454.3061.273.984.328.92.56.71.10.6

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
0.50.31.810.70.24.3

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 88)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 96 David Phelps 2011 0.00 DNP
2 95 Graham Stoneburner 2012 0.00 DNP
3 94 Dillon Gee 2010 2.73
4 93 Jose De Paula 2012 0.00 DNP
5 93 Brad Meyers 2010 0.00 DNP
6 93 Charles Brewer 2012 0.00 DNP
7 92 D.J. Mitchell 2011 0.00 DNP
8 92 Kevin Pucetas 2009 0.00 DNP
9 91 Chris Heston 2012 0.00 DNP
10 91 Daniel Rosenbaum 2012 0.00 DNP
11 91 Carlos Rosa 2009 3.38
12 91 Jake Petricka 2012 0.00 DNP
13 90 Gus Schlosser 2013 0.00 DNP
14 90 Matthew Tracy 2013 0.00 DNP
15 90 Josh Bowman 2013 0.00 DNP
16 90 Brooks Brown 2009 0.00 DNP
17 90 Justin Cassel 2009 0.00 DNP
18 90 Cesar Valdez 2009 0.00 DNP
19 90 Joe Kelly 2012 4.21
20 89 Kris Johnson 2009 0.00 DNP
21 89 Nick Barnese 2013 0.00 DNP
22 89 Steven Hensley 2011 0.00 DNP
23 89 Mitch Talbot 2008 11.17
24 89 Chad Bettis 2013 6.85
25 89 Kyle Weiland 2011 8.03
26 89 Esmil Rogers 2010 7.38
27 89 Ryan Cook 2011 7.04
28 89 T.J. McFarland 2013 4.46
29 88 Jorge Reyes 2012 0.00 DNP
30 88 Clayton Mortensen 2009 9.98
31 88 John Gast 2013 5.11
32 88 Nathan Baker 2012 0.00 DNP
33 88 Ivan Nova 2011 4.03
34 88 Dallas Keuchel 2012 5.91
35 88 Seth Maness 2013 2.47
36 88 Wynn Pelzer 2010 0.00 DNP
37 88 Adam Mills 2009 0.00 DNP
38 88 Brandon Cumpton 2013 2.35
39 88 Eric Berger 2010 0.00 DNP
40 88 Alan Johnson 2008 0.00 DNP
41 88 Clayton Tanner 2012 0.00 DNP
42 88 Rudy Owens 2012 0.00 DNP
43 88 Zach Stewart 2011 5.88
44 88 Blake Wood 2010 5.26
45 88 Brandon Workman 2013 4.97
46 88 Adam Warren 2012 23.14
47 88 Hector Ambriz 2008 0.00 DNP
48 87 Carlos Hernandez 2011 0.00 DNP
49 87 Merrill Kelly 2013 0.00 DNP
50 87 Evan Anundsen 2012 0.00 DNP
51 87 Paul Oseguera 2008 0.00 DNP
52 87 Chad Jenkins 2012 4.50
53 87 Anthony Bass 2012 5.47
54 87 AJ Schugel 2013 0.00 DNP
55 87 Jeff Manship 2009 5.97
56 87 Justin Germano 2007 4.86
57 87 Cameron Selik 2012 0.00 DNP
58 87 Erik Goeddel 2013 0.00 DNP
59 87 Jimmy Nelson 2013 0.90
60 87 Chorye Spoone 2010 0.00 DNP
61 87 Chris Rusin 2011 0.00 DNP
62 87 Chris Hernandez 2013 0.00 DNP
63 87 Polin Trinidad 2009 0.00 DNP
64 86 Ryan Searle 2013 0.00 DNP
65 86 Stephen Fife 2011 0.00 DNP
66 86 Garrett Richards 2012 5.83
67 86 Reidier Gonzalez 2010 0.00 DNP
68 86 Mark Holliman 2008 0.00 DNP
69 86 Kevin Mulvey 2009 8.14
70 86 Alex Colome 2013 4.50
71 86 Josh Collmenter 2010 0.00 DNP
72 86 Oswaldo Sosa 2010 0.00 DNP
73 86 Wade Miley 2011 4.50
74 86 Brandon Hynick 2009 0.00 DNP
75 86 Zachary Neal 2013 0.00 DNP
76 86 Nick Tepesch 2013 5.03
77 86 Micah Owings 2007 4.78
78 86 Michael Kirkman 2011 7.24
79 86 Zach McAllister 2012 5.60
80 86 Brett Brach 2012 0.00 DNP
81 86 Juan Nicasio 2011 4.40
82 86 Chuck Lofgren 2010 0.00 DNP
83 86 Mark Cohoon 2012 0.00 DNP
84 86 Tommy Milone 2011 3.81
85 85 Chris Sorce 2012 0.00 DNP
86 85 Charlie Haeger 2008 20.77
87 85 Richard Bleier 2011 0.00 DNP
88 85 Patrick Francescon 2013 0.00 DNP
89 85 Connor Graham 2010 0.00 DNP
90 85 Deryk Hooker 2013 0.00 DNP
91 85 Casey Lawrence 2012 0.00 DNP
92 85 James Houser 2009 0.00 DNP
93 85 Elih Villanueva 2011 24.00
94 85 Ben Snyder 2010 0.00 DNP
95 85 Dallas Trahern 2010 0.00 DNP
96 85 Jon Kibler 2011 0.00 DNP
97 85 Matt Packer 2012 0.00 DNP
98 85 Josh Outman 2009 4.01
99 85 Dimasther Delgado 2013 0.00 DNP
100 85 J.C. Ramirez 2013 8.25

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Graham may have entered the season as a sleeper arm in the system, but his performance in the Southern League served as an alarm clock. Nobody's sleeping anymore. Although Graham is a small right-hander, his fantastic athleticism and sinker—one of the best in the league—give him a shot at starting, as does the development of his secondary offerings. He’ll need to keep working, but the odds of him sticking in the rotation are higher now than they were a year ago.
2012 The Braves drafted J.R. Graham in the fourth round out of Santa Clara University. Still raw, he throws a fastball that operates in the mid- to upper-90s. He could turn into a late-innings reliever if he finds a secondary pitch.

BP Articles

J.R. Graham is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, May 28Jeff Moore2014-05-29
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Tuesday, May 13Jeff Moore2014-05-14
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, April 28Jeff Moore2014-04-29
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Thursday, April 17Jeff Moore2014-04-18
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of April 7, 2014Jeff Moore2014-04-08
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Santana Settles, Atlanta SettlesMike Gianella2014-03-13
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Santana Settles, Atlanta SettlesR.J. Anderson2014-03-13
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Spring Training Games of March 10Jeff Moore2014-03-11
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Spring Training Games of March 4Jeff Moore2014-03-05
25-and-Under Talent Rankings: Ranking All 30 Teams from Top to BottomBP Prospect Staff2014-03-03
25-and-Under Talent Rankings: Ranking All 30 Teams from Top to BottomJason Parks2014-03-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: The Prospect Proximity RankingsR.J. Anderson2014-03-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersIan Lefkowitz2014-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersJared Weiss2014-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersBen Murphy2014-02-28
This article requires BP Premium accessPerfect Game Presents: Before They Were Pros: NL EastTodd Gold2014-02-26
This article requires BP Premium accessPerfect Game Presents: Before They Were Pros: NL EastPatrick Ebert2014-02-26
This article requires BP Premium accessPerfect Game Presents: Before They Were Pros: NL EastDavid Rawnsley2014-02-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher ProspectsBen Carsley2014-02-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher ProspectsCraig Goldstein2014-02-26
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Atlanta Braves Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2014-02-25
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: The Importance of Top Prospect TrajectoriesSam Miller2014-02-12
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: Memorable Scouting ExperiencesJason Parks2013-09-23
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: Memorable Scouting ExperiencesBP Prospect Staff2013-09-23
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 17th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-17
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 16, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-16
This article requires BP Premium accessScouting the Southern League: Mississippi and JacksonJason Cole2013-05-01
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: April 22BP Prospect Staff2013-04-22
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of April 19-April 21Zach Mortimer2013-04-22
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Tuesday, April 16Zach Mortimer2013-04-17
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Atlanta Braves Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2013-03-07
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of February 27Jason Martinez2013-02-28
BP Unfiltered: Top 101 Prospects of 2013, Sliced and DicedRob McQuown2013-02-26
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Top 101 ProspectsJason Parks2013-02-25
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Thursday, January 24Daniel Rathman2013-01-24
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of November 15Jason Martinez2012-11-16
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday Morning Ten PackKevin Goldstein2012-08-27
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of June 12Kevin Goldstein2012-06-13
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of May 17Kevin Goldstein2012-05-18
Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of April 20Kevin Goldstein2012-04-20
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: Braves Still Building the Wight WayR.J. Anderson2012-03-06
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Atlanta Braves Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2012-02-07


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-01-17 10:00:00 (link to chat)Have you heard any health updates on J.R. Graham?
(Andy5Schwall from (MKE))
I was told he is healthy and ready to go. I guess we shall see if that is accurate come camp. (Jason Parks)
2013-11-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Seems like most people have Lucas Sims ahead of J.R. Graham as Braves pitching prospects go. Are you with them? Is it close?
(dw from New York)
At this point, I'd rank Sims above Graham, but I'm still high on Graham. He should be healthy in 2014. (Jason Parks)
2013-08-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's the latest on J.R. Graham? Will he pitch again this season?
(Freddie from New York)
Last I heard, his shoulder was taking a long time to heal but wouldn't require surgery. I really loved him when I saw him in Mississippi earlier this season. He turned in probably the best pitching performance I've seen all season, flashing plus command and sitting mid-90s with big life. Not sure if he will pitch again this season though. (Jason Cole)
2013-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Going along with the starting pitcher stature discussion, what are your thoughts on J.R. Graham's future?
(LoyalRoyal from KS)
I've written that I think he has a chance to stick as a starter. Smaller but well-built, overall good delivery, commands the fastball well, able to get good downward plane despite his lack of height, shows a 6 slider, and a decent enough changeup. And then, of course, he went and got hurt right after (shoulder strain). Haven't heard anything about his status since he went on the DL, but he's been on the shelf for about a month now. (Jason Cole)
2013-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who seems to have the highest ceiling of Kyle Gibson, Jesse Biddle, J.R. Graham?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Weird question because I think Graham has the highest ceiling of that group just barely, though he also has the highest chance to end up in the bullpen. Biddle is second of that group for me, with Gibson third. (Jason Cole)
2013-05-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on J.R. Graham? Jason Cole seems to like him more than most? Do you prefer him or Alex Wood (ignoring Graham's potential injury)?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
I think Cole has him pegged and I'm onboard with his report/projection. Graham is a dude. He's smaller, but he's not without strength, especially in the core/legs. He has crazy raw stuff, intensity and some feel, and I think he can start. He's legit. (Jason Parks)
2013-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm holding onto Robert Stephenson in a Dynasty League. Should I drop him for someone closer like a Yordano Ventura (dominant again last night) or J.R. Graham? Any additional thoughts on any of these 3?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
I'd have to rely on our prospect guys there, but I personally have Stephenson and like a good bit. I really like Yordano, but he feels RP-esque. (Paul Sporer)
2013-05-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Assuming the usual suspects graduate this year (Bundy, Cole, Wheeler, even throw in Walker and Taillon though they may not be called up), who are the the next 4-5 top SP arms in the minors?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
I would even throw J.R. Graham into that list you're working with there. I'm a big, big fan. Appel and Gray will obviously have a chance to be in that discussion as we enter next season. For me, Archie Bradley might very well be the #1 pitching prospect in baseball to open next season. I'd need a little more time to think up an actual top 4-5 (I'll do that prior to the next chat and answer it then!), but Bradley would be my call as #1 if all of those guys happen to graduate. (Jason Cole)
2013-05-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)You seem to be higher than most on J.R. Graham. Is he a SP2/3 type in your eyes?
(Shawn from My Cubicle)
He is, and I agree, I think I am higher on Graham than most. He can hold velocity through starts, he's got big life on the fastball, he commands the fastball well, he shows three pitches, and despite his lack of height, he can pitch on a downward plane. When he's up in the zone, it gets flat and hittable, but I think the command is good enough that he can general avoid that. The size thing is an issue. Can he hold up throwing 180-200-plus innings for a number of seasons? That's the question, but I do know that Graham is an extremely hard worker who's very strong and well-built. I do acknowledge that there's a chance he ends up in the bullpen (he should be in the Atlanta bullpen at some point this season), but I think he's a starter. 2/3 type, yeah. (Jason Cole)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.