Biographical

Portrait of Danny Duffy

Danny Duffy PRoyals

Royals Player Cards | Royals Team Audit | Royals Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 25)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
69.3 4.39 1.44 64 5 4 0 0.3
Birth Date12-21-1988
Height6' 3"
Weight205 lbs
Age25 years, 10 months, 3 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
2010
0.92011
0.42012
0.52013
1.22014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2011 KCA 22 20 20 105.3 105.3 0.0 4 8 0 0 8 0 474 119 66 66 15 204 51 50 5 87 5.64 4.86 4.77 9.7 0.9
2012 KCA 23 6 6 27.7 27.7 0.0 2 2 0 0 2 0 121 26 13 12 2 42 18 17 0 28 3.90 3.91 4.22 3.8 0.4
2013 KCA 24 5 5 24.3 24.3 0.0 2 0 0 0 2 0 104 19 5 5 0 25 14 14 1 22 1.85 3.12 3.41 5.1 0.5
2014 KCA 25 31 25 149.3 141.0 8.3 9 12 0 1 13 1 606 113 52 42 12 174 53 51 5 113 2.53 3.86 4.52 10.4 0.9
Career6256306.7298.38.3172201251130527713612529445136132112503.674.154.5029.02.8

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2007 ROY Rk 11 9 37.3 2.51 151 .204 .261 .358 .368 .262 .324 102 16.1 1.5 16.1 1.5
2008 BUR A 17 17 81.7 3.22 123 .209 .255 .325 .379 .264 .274 96 16.2 1.7 16.2 1.7
2009 WIL A+ 24 24 126.7 4.29 96 .234 .257 .332 .386 .260 .294 92 11.6 1.2 11.6 1.2
2010 WIL A+ 3 3 14.0 5.76 78 .219 .260 .347 .388 .257 .214 104 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1
2010 NWA AA 7 7 39.7 3.45 134 .239 .263 .335 .391 .262 .353 116 14.2 1.4 14.2 1.4
2010 IDA Rk 2 2 6.0 4.21 128 .136 .293 .340 .445 .271 .250 123 2.2 0.2 2.2 0.2
2010 ROY Rk 2 2 2.7 2.26 145 .208 .283 .321 .376 .288 .400 87 1.2 0.1 1.2 0.1
2010 gcr Wnt 7 3 15.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .311 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2011 KCA MLB 20 20 105.3 4.77 101 .293 .260 .327 .415 .265 .329 108 10.2 1.1 9.7 0.9
2011 OMA AAA 8 8 42.0 4.63 120 .211 .283 .357 .452 .266 .305 110 11.5 1.1 11.5 1.1
2012 KCA MLB 6 6 27.7 4.22 106 .270 .253 .322 .416 .265 .329 101 3.8 0.4 3.8 0.4
2013 KCA MLB 5 5 24.3 3.41 122 .233 .260 .323 .403 .269 .284 102 5.1 0.5 5.1 0.5
2013 NWA AA 4 4 16.0 4.01 107 .280 .255 .321 .391 .265 .448 100 2.3 0.3 2.3 0.3
2013 OMA AAA 12 10 53.0 4.04 105 .265 .259 .330 .399 .268 .329 89 8.1 0.8 8.1 0.8
2014 KCA MLB 31 25 149.3 4.52 96 .235 .255 .314 .393 .260 .239 104 10.4 1.1 10.4 0.9
2014 OMA AAA 1 1 6.0 4.21 115 .221 .268 .318 .401 .255 .250 100 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2007 ROY Rk 2 3 0 11 9 37.3 24 17 63 0 45% .324 5.8 4.1 0.0 15.2 1.10 1.45 16.1 1.5
2008 BUR A 8 4 0 17 17 81.7 56 25 102 4 37% .274 6.2 2.8 0.4 11.2 0.99 2.20 16.2 1.7
2009 WIL A+ 9 3 0 24 24 126.7 108 41 125 6 46% .294 7.7 2.9 0.4 8.9 1.18 2.98 11.6 1.2
2010 WIL A+ 0 0 0 3 3 14.0 8 7 18 2 43% .214 5.1 4.5 1.3 11.6 1.07 2.57 0.5 0.1
2010 gcr Wnt 1 1 1 7 3 15.7 17 9 18 3 0% .311 9.7 5.2 1.7 10.3 1.66 8.03 0.0 0.0
2010 IDA Rk 0 1 0 2 2 6.0 4 0 6 0 56% .250 6.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.67 1.50 2.2 0.2
2010 ROY Rk 0 0 0 2 2 2.7 2 1 4 0 60% .400 6.7 3.3 0.0 13.3 1.11 3.33 1.2 0.1
2010 NWA AA 5 2 0 7 7 39.7 38 9 41 3 47% .353 8.6 2.0 0.7 9.3 1.18 2.95 14.2 1.4
2011 KCA MLB 4 8 0 20 20 105.3 119 51 87 15 40% .329 10.2 4.4 1.3 7.4 1.61 5.64 9.7 0.9
2011 OMA AAA 3 1 0 8 8 42.0 37 10 48 5 41% .305 7.9 2.1 1.1 10.3 1.12 3.43 11.5 1.1
2012 KCA MLB 2 2 0 6 6 27.7 26 18 28 2 33% .329 8.5 5.9 0.7 9.1 1.59 3.90 3.8 0.4
2013 KCA MLB 2 0 0 5 5 24.3 19 14 22 0 31% .284 7.0 5.2 0.0 8.1 1.36 1.85 5.1 0.5
2013 OMA AAA 3 0 0 12 10 53.0 50 25 59 4 38% .329 8.5 4.2 0.7 10.0 1.42 4.08 8.1 0.8
2013 NWA AA 0 2 0 4 4 16.0 16 5 28 3 38% .448 9.0 2.8 1.7 15.8 1.31 3.94 2.3 0.3
2014 KCA MLB 9 12 0 31 25 149.3 113 53 113 12 38% .239 6.8 3.2 0.7 6.8 1.11 2.53 10.4 0.9
2014 OMA AAA 1 0 0 1 1 6.0 5 1 4 1 35% .250 7.5 1.5 1.5 6.0 1.00 3.00 1.0 0.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2011 1953 0.5387 0.4424 0.8194 0.6122 0.2442 0.8727 0.6636 0.1782
2012 523 0.5258 0.4512 0.7839 0.6255 0.2581 0.8314 0.6563 0.2161
2013 467 0.5246 0.4518 0.7725 0.6776 0.2027 0.8133 0.6222 0.2275
2014 2420 0.5376 0.4719 0.8433 0.6503 0.2645 0.8924 0.7027 0.1550
Career53630.53570.45740.82260.63640.25110.87240.67690.1757

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-09-07 - DTD - - Left Shoulder Inflammation Rotator Cuff -
2013-09-08 2013-09-30 15-DL 22 20 Left Elbow Strain Flexor Strain - -
2013-03-22 2013-06-25 60-DL 95 73 Left Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2012-06-13 -
2012-05-14 2012-10-04 60-DL 143 129 Left Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2012-06-13 -
2012-04-23 2012-05-03 DTD 10 8 Left Elbow Inflammation - -
2011-06-19 2011-06-19 DTD 0 0 Left Lower Leg Cramp Calf -
2010-04-08 2010-08-02 Minors 116 0 Left Elbow Sprain Ulnar Collateral Ligament - -
2010-03-07 2010-03-11 Camp 4 0 Left Elbow Soreness -
2009-07-29 2009-08-15 Minors 17 0 - Not Disclosed - -
2009-07-08 2009-07-18 Minors 10 0 - Not Disclosed - -
2008-08-19 2008-09-11 Minors 23 0 - Not Disclosed - -
2008-04-03 2008-05-19 Minors 46 0 Left Elbow Strain - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2015 KCA $
2014 KCA $
2013 KCA $505,125
2012 KCA $487,750
YearsDescriptionSalary
3 yrPrevious$992,875
3 yrTotal$992,875

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
2 y 85 dLevinsons, ACES1 year/$0.526M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$0.526M (2014). Re-signed by Kansas City 3/1/14.
  • 1 year/$505,125 (2013). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/20/13.
  • 1 year/$487,750 (2012). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/28/12.
  • 1 year (2011). Contract purchased by Kansas City 5/18/11.
  • Drafted by Kansas City 2007 (3-96) (Cabrillo HS, Calif.). Signed 6/28/07, $0.365M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 5.4 4.7 0 16 16 104.2 87 36 96 9 .273 1.18 3.24 3.53 16.5 1.7
80o 5.2 5 0 16 16 97.3 87 36 89 9 .287 1.27 3.65 3.97 11.9 1.2
70o 5 5.2 0 16 16 92.5 87 36 85 9 .298 1.34 3.96 4.3 8.6 0.9
60o 4.9 5.5 0 16 16 88.5 87 36 81 9 .307 1.40 4.22 4.58 5.9 0.6
50o 4.8 5.7 0 16 16 84.8 87 36 78 9 .315 1.45 4.47 4.86 3.2 0.3
40o 4.6 5.9 0 16 16 81.2 87 36 75 9 .323 1.51 4.72 5.13 0.7 0.1
30o 4.5 6.2 0 16 16 77.4 86 36 71 9 .332 1.57 4.99 5.43 -2.0 -0.2
20o 4.3 6.4 0 16 16 73.0 85 35 67 9 .343 1.65 5.32 5.78 -5.0 -0.5
10o 4 6.9 0 16 16 67.1 83 35 62 9 .357 1.76 5.79 6.29 -9.2 -0.9
Weighted Mean4.85.70161684.38636779.3131.444.434.823.60.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
37% 64% 16% 18% 90%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201526101003030192185661841839.3071.313.794.128.73.18.60.82.1
20162710903030186176641701739.2981.293.704.028.53.18.20.82.3
2017289902929181181651681739.3121.363.964.309.03.28.30.81.6
2018299902828169164571551739.3051.313.844.188.83.08.30.91.8
2019309802626156151531431439.3041.303.684.008.73.18.20.82.0
2020318802525150149511351439.3091.333.894.238.93.18.10.81.5
2021328702323137135461241339.3061.323.834.168.83.08.10.91.5
2022337702121125124421121239.3071.333.884.218.93.08.10.91.3
2023346601919113113371001139.3071.333.904.249.03.08.00.91.1

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
18.322.617.86.914.59.880.1

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 92 Felix Doubront 2013 4.60
2 91 Jordan Zimmermann 2011 3.46
3 88 Aaron Crow 2012 3.76
4 86 Garrett Olson 2009 5.94
5 86 Anthony Reyes 2007 6.46
6 86 Marc Rzepczynski 2011 3.92
7 85 Hayden Penn 2010 30.86
8 84 J.P. Howell 2008 2.92
9 84 Rick VandenHurk 2010 7.13
10 84 Carlos Carrasco 2012 0.00 DNP
11 84 Gio Gonzalez 2011 3.61
12 83 Jason Vargas 2008 0.00 DNP
13 83 Christian Friedrich 2013 0.00 DNP
14 83 Edgar Gonzalez 2008 6.38
15 83 Bud Norris 2010 5.51
16 83 Ricky Nolasco 2008 3.73
17 83 Jon Niese 2012 3.64
18 83 Ian Snell 2007 4.07
19 82 Sean West 2011 0.00 DNP
20 81 Jason Hammel 2008 5.17
21 81 Edinson Volquez 2009 4.53
22 81 Ricky Romero 2010 4.20
23 81 Tyler Clippard 2010 3.26
24 80 Jo-Jo Reyes 2010 24.30
25 79 Michael Stutes 2012 9.53
26 79 Matt Chico 2008 6.38
27 79 Scott Baker 2007 4.39
28 79 Brian Matusz 2012 5.60
29 79 Andrew Sisco 2008 0.00 DNP
30 79 Radhames Liz 2008 7.15
31 79 Wade LeBlanc 2010 4.25
32 78 Bobby Parnell 2010 3.34
33 78 John Ely 2011 4.26
34 78 Brad Peacock 2013 5.51
35 78 Robinson Tejeda 2007 7.27
36 78 Alan Horne 2008 0.00 DNP
37 78 Shaun Marcum 2007 4.30
38 78 Brandon Beachy 2012 2.67
39 78 Vance Worley 2013 7.95
40 78 Ramon Ramirez 2007 8.31
41 78 Chris Dwyer 2013 0.00
42 78 Andy Oliver 2013 0.00 DNP
43 78 Jeff Locke 2013 3.73
44 78 Hong-Chih Kuo 2007 7.71
45 78 Jordan Walden 2013 3.64
46 78 Denny Bautista 2008 5.22
47 77 Matt Maloney 2009 4.87
48 77 Chris Tillman 2013 3.79
49 77 Philip Humber 2008 4.63
50 77 Scott Elbert 2011 2.43
51 77 Luke Hochevar 2009 6.86
52 77 Ervin Santana 2008 3.66
53 77 Donnie Veal 2010 0.00 DNP
54 77 Antonio Bastardo 2011 2.64
55 77 Hector Noesi 2012 5.99
56 77 Jake McGee 2012 2.11
57 77 James Shields 2007 4.10
58 77 Elizardo Ramirez 2008 30.38
59 77 Scott Barnes 2013 7.27
60 77 Glen Perkins 2008 4.83
61 77 Yusmeiro Petit 2010 0.00 DNP
62 77 Brayan Villarreal 2012 3.29
63 77 David Huff 2010 6.89
64 77 Zach Stewart 2012 10.09
65 77 P.J. Walters 2010 6.00
66 77 Boof Bonser 2007 5.62
67 76 Aaron Miller 2013 0.00 DNP
68 76 J.A. Happ 2008 3.69
69 76 Brandon Kintzler 2010 7.36
70 76 Juan Nicasio 2012 5.74
71 76 Jason Windsor 2008 0.00 DNP
72 76 Joel Carreno 2012 6.14
73 76 Matt Albers 2008 3.86
74 76 Collin Balester 2011 5.55
75 76 Junichi Tazawa 2011 6.00
76 76 Kyle Davies 2009 5.56
77 76 Clayton Mortensen 2010 6.00
78 76 Ryan Webb 2011 3.55
79 76 Gavin Floyd 2008 4.67
80 76 Angel Guzman 2007 3.56
81 76 Brad Mills 2010 5.64
82 76 Dellin Betances 2013 10.80
83 75 Logan Kensing 2008 4.23
84 75 Kyle Gibson 2013 6.71
85 75 Alex Wilson 2012 0.00 DNP
86 75 Scott Olsen 2009 6.46
87 75 Jay Jackson 2013 0.00 DNP
88 75 Brett Cecil 2012 5.87
89 75 Johnny Cueto 2011 2.94
90 75 Omar Poveda 2013 0.00 DNP
91 75 Anthony Capra 2012 0.00 DNP
92 75 George Kontos 2010 0.00 DNP
93 75 Lance Broadway 2009 5.87
94 75 Francisco Liriano 2009 6.12
95 75 Michael Megrew 2009 0.00 DNP
96 75 Homer Bailey 2011 4.64
97 75 David Hernandez 2010 4.54
98 75 James McDonald 2010 4.02
99 75 James Simmons 2012 0.00 DNP
100 75 Chuck James 2007 4.30

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .264 .316 .387 .242
11 vs R (Multi) .249 .366 .402 .277
18 Split (Multi) .015 -.050 -.015 -.036
19 LgAvg (Multi) -.026 -.032 -.063 -.030
30 vs L (2013) .296 .321 .370 .239
31 vs R (2013) .177 .329 .242 .224
38 Split (2013) .119 -.008 .128 .015
39 LgAvg (2013) -.025 -.031 -.062 -.029

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Many observers thought Duffy was injured when he struggled with command in a short outing the start after throwing 113 pitches at the end of April. Adding fuel to the fire were Moore's comments that the club knew its left-hander would eventually need Tommy John surgery. But Duffy had been throwing with a partial tear in his UCL for several years and the team did follow accepted medical protocol when diagnosing the injury. Whatever the cause, the result is that he is another of the parade of Royals pitchers who landed in the operating room for the procedure. His rehab program has begun and he appears on target to return late in the 2013 season. The best-case scenario would have him contributing in 2014.
2012 The first of what the Royals hope will be a wave of starting pitching prospects, Duffy arrived in Kansas City with much fanfare in mid-May when the club ran thin on viable starters. He certainly earned the call-up after punching out 48 hitters in 42 innings in Omaha. Once in the majors, Duffy at times exhibited brilliance, but far too often he nibbled and lost the ability to put hitters away once he jumped ahead in the count. He also developed an alarming habit of putting the ball right down the middle of the plate when he fell behind. Still, Duffy has good feel for his fastball that sits in the low- to mid-90s and favors a slow, sweeping curve as his top secondary pitch. He was shut down in September after approaching 150 innings between the majors and minors. Think of 2011 as his first step in the major league learning process. With his stuff, he is still more than capable of developing into a quality, front-line starter.
2011 Beginning in spring training, when he retired to "reassess his priorities," Duffy had a strange year. When he returned to the game in June after determining that baseball was still ranked somewhere on his to-do list, he showed off the best stuff of his young career, pitching well as high as Double-A. With a fastball that gets into the mid-90s to go with a good changeup, and a good-enough breaking ball, Duffy has the ability to be a big-league starter. Now he has to prove that his stuff can hold up over the course of a full workload; in his three full years as a pro, he's logged just over 270 innings. We have plenty to learn about both his stuff and his commitment, but the pieces of an excellent player are there.
2010 Along with Montgomery and Melville, this 2007 third-rounder gives the Royals three pitchers who have both the projection and performance to warrant genuine excitement. Duffy is a step below Montgomery and Melville on a stuff level, with his best pitch a curve to go with an average-to-tick-above heater; while the M&M boys have a chance to be second or third starters, Duffy projects as more of an eventual fourth man. Of course, when we say "number four" we're talking about major-league teams—on the Royals, anyone else's number four is actually a number two, anyone else's number two is actually a number one, and Zack Greinke exists in a class by himself.
2009 The Royals might have found something when they selected this high school lefty in the third round two years ago. Duffy possesses a remarkably advanced feel for mixing pitches and setting batters up, and was pretty much untouchable in his first full pro season, with Midwest League batters managing just a .193 average against his solid fastball, big-breaking slow curve, and well-controlled change. He's a bit like a left-handed version of Cortes, featuring a similar repertoire and batted-ball split (a 0.55 G/F ratio last year). Southpaws who can fan 11 batters per nine innings at any level are rare gems, and Duffy will get the chance to add more luster at High-A Wilmington.
2008 Daniel Duffy was drafted in the third round last year out of an obscure California high school, then opened eyes with 63 strikeouts in 37 innings in Rookie ball. He's a lefty who throws in the low 90s with a very good curve. If he stays healthy, he'll get a much longer comment next year.

BP Articles

Danny Duffy is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game 3 PreviewsR.J. Anderson2014-10-24
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Playoff Prospectus: The Other Royals: World Series Game 1Sam Miller2014-10-22
Playoff Prospectus: World Series Preview: Giants vs. RoyalsSam Miller2014-10-21
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-10-23 14:00:00 (link to chat)How worried should I be about Yordano Ventura's workload? I am all for chasing the ring, but the lack of Danny Duffy sightings makes me concerned about their rotation next year.
(Jeff from Lawrence)
There is some concern, especially for a pitcher who relies so much on power at the expense of stability in his delivery. That said, it is critical to look at each pitcher on a case-by-case basis, and the Royals have the most knowledge of these pitchers' risk profiles. I think that a lot of pitchers break down for a lot of reasons, and though workload is certainly a factor to consider, I believe that the ends justify the means in this scenario. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)Is Ned Yost just inconsistent or is he getting better?
(William from Spokane)
He's getting better. A crucial thing happened in September. The Aaron Crow Game (the cousin of The Jonny Gomes Game) showed the limits of Yost's rigid bullpen management. After that game, pitching coach Dave Eiland implored him to be more aggressive in using Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis.

One point to Yost's credit: He listened. The next night, Herrera pitched in the sixth. Davis pitched in the seventh.

Another point to Yost's credit: He did not waver. Because the Royals lost that next night, and Yost could have easily backslid into the routine. He didn't.

During the ALCS, multiple Orioles officials lamented to me their frustration that Yost had optimized his bullpen deployment. It was almost unfair, they said. And this was when the team wasn't even using Danny Duffy, who was their best pitcher for much of the summer.

So, in short, Yost has gotten better. He still does goofy things, like letting his No. 3 hitter bunt in the first inning. But they've found a horseshoe. At this point, it's Ned's world, and we're all just living in it. Hope you are all enjoying the #Yostseason. (Andy McCullough)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)In your approximation how many Lions are on the Royals roster? Any, besides Shields of course, with future astronaut lion potential?
(Chill Cosby from Space)
Danny Duffy could become an Astronaut Grizzly.

https://twitter.com/McCulloughStar/status/522540919019798528/photo/1

http://idealog.co.nz/media/images/blog/2013/07/sloth_t.jpg (Andy McCullough)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)If you had the choice, what would the WS starting rotation for the Royals look like?
(clscholes from Independence)
Danny Duffy would be pitching.

But I would say the Royals approach has been effective so far. (Andy McCullough)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think the rotation will be opening day next year for the Royals?
(Alex from Madison, WI)
Jason Vargas, Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie and Johnny Free Agent. (Andy McCullough)
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are you a Danny Duffy believer?
(Royal diehard from KC)
Yes. Bret Sayre and I own him in mixed LABR and I like Duffy a lot. Maybe he's not a future ace, but I could see a solid #2. (Mike Gianella)
2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Fantasy Question: Regardless of cost, who would you rather have for the next 3 years: Danny Duffy, Jake Arrieta, or Rusney Castillo? What kind of player will Castillo be?
(Quiet Time from D.C.)
Castillo is a total wild card. The scouting reports I've read pegged him somewhere between Rajai Davis and Shane Victorino, but then it was said that he bulked up and showed unexpected power during his workouts last month. Even if he "ony" ends up as the next Shane Victorino, I'd take that over either SP. I'd take most solid everyday players over most unproven SP's. (Cory Schwartz)
2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who will have the better career Danny Duffy or Brandon Finnegan?
(Kevin G from Jacksonville)
As of today you'd have to go with Duffy because he's got a regular rotation spot and is pitching very well. Remember that he too was a big-time prospect before injuries slowed him, but he's still very young and has upside to grow. Finnegan has much to prove before he becomes the next... Danny Duffy? :-) (Cory Schwartz)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have Segura, Wilin Rosario and Shelby Miller in a keeper league where they'll be cheap next year. Should I have any confidence that one or more of them will rebound? And would you hold on to any of them over Danny Duffy or Drew Pomeranz for the same price?
(Sjcolmus from Baltimore)
I like Duffy going forward. Would drop Rosario for him, and while I'm not optimistic on Segura, I'm hopeful he can rebound a bit. Pomeranz isn't very good. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Danny Duffy for real? Can he keep this up the rest of the year and beyond?
(Levine Perry from CT)
Lefty's that throw that hard have a huge advantage, and the curve has been unhittable this year. We'll see if he can continue to bury the curve and keep batters on their toes with the heat, as they could make adjustments now that the book is out on him. He has a solid delivery that lacks southpaw-related quirks, so that's another point in his favor. I don't see a 2.50 ERA ROS, but I could see him settle into the 3.25-3.50 range and be very effective down the stretch. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Love all the coverage of Arrieta taking his next step forward. In similar fashion, is Danny Duffy's great start to the year something he can keep up the rest of the year and beyond?
(Nils from CT)
Please see previous response on Duffy. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are you sold on the development of Danny Duffy??
(Kevin from KC)
I think we've seen some, but not commensurate with his ERA. I actually think there's more growth to come, though probably more in 2015. I'd bet on a mid to high-3.00s ERA the rest of the way. (Paul Sporer)
2014-04-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)You think Danny Duffy will take over Bruce Chen's spot in the rotation soon? If so is he an immediate add?
(Mike from Boston)
I think he can, yes. And then he'd be an add in a lot of formats, but not necessarily a must-add in 10 or 12-team mixers (Paul Sporer)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Your overall thoughts on Danny Duffy going into 2014?
(nevadamartin from Las Vegas, NV)
Duffy followed the typical injury recovery from TJ surgery at the tail end of 2013. His velocity was there but his command was not. My concern is that Duffy's command has never really been great at the Major League level so there are no guarantees he is going to find it this year either. I think Duffy is a solid back end guy in fantasy, but I wouldn't chase him and the only format where I'd really pursue him is in dynasty. There is a lot of reward but also a lot of risk here. (Mike Gianella)
2013-11-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Danny Duffy, ready to break out and live up to K rate and stuff, or too inconsistent to be a rotation anchor?
(Samsonite DuSable from Springfield)
those are two separate things--I think he's close to having a good season as a starter (health allowing) but I don't see him as a rotation anchor. He's going to find age taking a bit off his stuff quite soon so it's get going or get gone time for Duffy to shine. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Danny Duffy continued to struggle with some injury issues after his return. Do you see any red flags in his mechanics? Is he a potential #2 guy?
(Kevin from Tennessee)
He's got that potential. But the only red flag I need to see is his injury history. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-09-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you see Danny Duffy developing into a relaible mid of the rotation arm?
(Shawn from CT)
He has the raw velocity and the pitch mix for the rotation, but his secondary stuff has not been crisp enough to hold down a mid-rotation spot yet. His command has been very spotty, and he has some mechanical obstacle to overcome before he can iron out those issues - he has an overly-closed stride that does not appear to work well with his signature, and he struggles with balance from foot strike through release point. So it all depends on his development path, but if he can't make the necessary adjustments then he may be destined for a role in the bullpen. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)What type of ceiling do you see for Danny Duffy? Seems to have huge K potential
(Shawn from My Cubicle)
I saw Duffy a lot as a prospect, the stuff is real and he has the chance to be a very solid mid rotation starter. (Zach Mortimer)
2013-06-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Obviously not this year, but does Danny Duffy have the ceiling of a #2? Pre-TJ I think he had one of the fastest avg fastballs in MLB.
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Yes, though the ceiling is faint. I'd bet more on a #3 (Paul Sporer)
2013-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Daniel Hudson, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino? Will any have value this year? Who's best long-term?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
No idea this year, wouldn't really waste much time. Hudson long-term. (Paul Sporer)
2013-03-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat Doug! I'm a big fan and look forward to the SP guide with your input. I would like to know if you look for specific mechanic flaws for pitchers post TJ or other surgery. i.e. John Lamb or Danny Duffy.
(jimcal from Seattle)
When looking at post-surgery pitchers, what I pay attention to differs based on the conditions of their injury. If the guy had solid mechanics before getting hurt - but fell due to workloads, structural integrity, or other conditions - then I just look to see how far away he is from regaining his previous delivery. But if there was an underlying mechanical flaw, then I look to see if any adjustments have been made to correct the problem.

Stephen Strasburg is a good example. I loved his mechanics before the injury, though he did have the trifecta of inverted-W + heavy scapular load + delayed trunk rotation that leads to elbow drag (particularly when fatigued). I am a big fan of his delivery now, but in my opinion he is still just 90-95% of the way back to his pre-injury levels. But the Nats were smart to shut him down last season, given the risk factors inherent in his motion plus the additional risk when he gets fatigued.

On the jukebox: Audioslave, "Like a Stone" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-02-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)M.Pineda - worth a stash in fantasy? Any hope he comes on to pitch mid-year 2013?
(Al from Boston)
In a redraft league, I'd consider Pineda as a late-round flier that you could stash on your DL and hope for the best. We recently heard that he's ahead of schedule and actually threw a 25-pitch (all-fastball) session the other day, so there is upside here. On the other hand, recovery from a labrum tear is difficult to project, so if you're inclined to gamble on a pitcher coming back from injury, someone like Danny Duffy or Cory Luebke (both Tommy John surgery victims) might be a better bet. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-03-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)What's your take on the 2012 Royals?
(Ryan Glass from The District)
It comes down to their pitching. I can see their young position players taking steps forward, but that rotation needs to carry its weight, too. If Luke Hochevar and Danny Duffy can improve and Felipe Paulino continues to pitch like he did with KC last season then that team looks a lot better than it does now. (R.J. Anderson)
2012-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any "sophomores" you like to break out this season
(moehk21 from NYC)
I like Ben Revere, Eric Thames, Lucas Duda, Cory Luebke, Danny Duffy, Henderson Alvarez all to various degrees. (Derek Carty)
2011-05-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Danny Duffy here to stay? (assuming no more retirements)
(seth from OP,KS)
I think he is. He's got the stuff to play in the majors. I'm sure he'll have rookie struggles, but I see no reason why the Royals would want to keep rolling out the current cast of clowns every five days. There has to be a continuing spot for Duffy in there, I would think. (Mike Fast)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Danny Duffy has thrown 5,966 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2010 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason, Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (94mph), also mixing in a Curve (78mph), Sinker (94mph), Change (84mph) and Slider (80mph).