Biographical

Portrait of Brian Duensing

Brian Duensing PTwins

Twins Player Cards | Twins Team Audit | Twins Depth Chart

2014 Rest-of-Season Projections (seasonal age 31)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
0.3 3.81 1.33 0 0 0 0 0.0
Birth Date2-22-1983
Height6' 0"
Weight205 lbs
Age31 years, 7 months, 29 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
1.32010
1.02011
1.22012
1.12013
0.12014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2009 MIN 26 24 9 84.0 52.7 31.3 5 2 0 0 4 0 359 84 37 34 7 118 31 30 3 53 3.64 4.18 4.37 13.7 1.4
2010 MIN 27 53 13 130.7 85.7 45.0 10 3 0 0 9 1 535 122 42 38 11 180 35 30 3 78 2.62 3.82 4.92 10.2 1.3
2011 MIN 28 32 28 161.7 156.3 5.3 9 14 0 0 14 2 711 193 102 94 21 312 52 49 1 115 5.23 4.31 4.85 10.8 1.0
2012 MIN 29 55 11 109.0 52.0 57.0 4 12 0 1 3 0 472 126 71 62 10 188 27 24 2 69 5.12 3.77 4.49 11.0 1.2
2013 MIN 30 73 0 61.0 0.0 61.0 6 2 1 4 0 0 268 68 28 27 4 97 22 18 2 56 3.98 3.27 3.13 10.5 1.1
2014 MIN 31 62 0 54.3 0.0 54.3 3 3 0 7 0 0 229 52 20 20 6 83 20 18 1 33 3.31 4.54 4.84 1.0 0.1
Career29961600.7346.7254.03736112303257464530027559978187169124044.124.004.5557.46.1

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2005 ELZ Rk 12 9 50.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 -.600 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006 BLT A 11 11 70.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .298 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006 FTM A+ 7 7 40.2 6.03 54 .280 .254 .327 .388 .261 .330 84 -3.0 -0.3 -3.0 -0.3
2006 NBR AA 10 9 49.1 6.45 -12 .325 .261 .326 .378 .262 .273 61 -5.6 -0.6 -5.6 -0.6
2007 NBR AA 9 9 50.7 3.81 122 .209 .250 .328 .373 .251 .285 106 10.8 1.1 10.8 1.1
2007 ROC AAA 19 19 116.7 5.39 77 .241 .263 .335 .401 .260 .288 95 -4.7 -0.5 -4.7 -0.5
2007 ust Wnt 2 1 6.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .300 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2008 ROC AAA 25 24 138.7 6.32 52 .262 .263 .334 .404 .266 .301 89 -16.1 -1.6 -16.1 -1.6
2009 MIN MLB 24 9 84.0 4.37 113 .245 .265 .329 .426 .258 .291 105 13.7 1.4 13.7 1.4
2009 ROC AAA 13 13 75.3 4.49 110 .246 .264 .332 .403 .250 .335 111 9.1 0.9 9.1 0.9
2010 MIN MLB 53 13 130.7 4.92 100 .228 .264 .327 .411 .258 .272 110 10.4 1.1 10.2 1.3
2011 MIN MLB 32 28 161.7 4.85 95 .290 .261 .323 .413 .263 .330 104 10.7 1.1 10.8 1.0
2012 MIN MLB 55 11 109.0 4.49 103 .265 .255 .320 .411 .262 .319 105 11.2 1.2 11.0 1.2
2013 MIN MLB 73 0 61.0 3.13 127 .275 .254 .319 .401 .267 .348 100 10.5 1.1 10.5 1.1
2014 MIN MLB 62 0 54.3 4.84 93 .258 .252 .312 .384 .260 .272 109 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2005 ELZ Rk 4 3 0 12 9 50.3 49 16 55 4 0% -.600 8.8 2.9 0.7 9.8 1.29 2.33 0.0 0.0
2006 NBR AA 1 2 0 10 9 49.1 51 18 30 6 62% .273 9.3 3.3 1.1 5.5 1.41 3.67 -5.6 -0.6
2006 FTM A+ 2 5 0 7 7 40.2 47 8 33 4 53% .330 10.5 1.8 0.9 7.4 1.37 4.25 -3.0 -0.3
2006 BLT A 2 3 0 11 11 70.0 68 14 55 3 0% .298 8.7 1.8 0.4 7.1 1.17 2.96 0.0 0.0
2007 ROC AAA 11 5 0 19 19 116.7 115 30 86 13 50% .288 8.9 2.3 1.0 6.6 1.24 3.24 -4.7 -0.5
2007 NBR AA 4 1 0 9 9 50.7 47 7 38 2 44% .285 8.3 1.2 0.4 6.7 1.07 2.66 10.8 1.1
2007 ust Wnt 0 0 0 2 1 6.0 6 0 3 0 0% .300 9.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 1.00 1.50 0.0 0.0
2008 ROC AAA 5 11 0 25 24 138.7 150 34 77 16 50% .301 9.7 2.2 1.0 5.0 1.33 4.28 -16.1 -1.6
2009 ROC AAA 4 6 0 13 13 75.3 87 19 44 2 47% .335 10.4 2.3 0.2 5.3 1.41 4.66 9.1 0.9
2009 MIN MLB 5 2 0 24 9 84.0 84 31 53 7 47% .291 9.0 3.3 0.8 5.7 1.37 3.64 13.7 1.4
2010 MIN MLB 10 3 0 53 13 130.7 122 35 78 11 54% .272 8.4 2.4 0.8 5.4 1.20 2.62 10.2 1.3
2011 MIN MLB 9 14 0 32 28 161.7 193 52 115 21 45% .330 10.7 2.9 1.2 6.4 1.52 5.23 10.8 1.0
2012 MIN MLB 4 12 0 55 11 109.0 126 27 69 10 48% .319 10.4 2.2 0.8 5.7 1.40 5.12 11.0 1.2
2013 MIN MLB 6 2 1 73 0 61.0 68 22 56 4 43% .348 10.0 3.2 0.6 8.3 1.48 3.98 10.5 1.1
2014 MIN MLB 3 3 0 62 0 54.3 52 20 33 6 46% .272 8.6 3.3 1.0 5.5 1.33 3.31 1.0 0.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2009 1316 0.4848 0.4810 0.8246 0.6411 0.3304 0.8924 0.7009 0.1754
2010 1865 0.5142 0.4611 0.8279 0.6121 0.3013 0.9131 0.6447 0.1709
2011 2653 0.5160 0.4640 0.8278 0.6362 0.2804 0.8863 0.6861 0.1714
2012 1694 0.5266 0.4829 0.8337 0.6357 0.3130 0.8995 0.6853 0.1663
2013 980 0.4990 0.4878 0.7803 0.6564 0.3198 0.8474 0.6433 0.2197
2014 864 0.5058 0.4861 0.8190 0.6751 0.2927 0.8678 0.7040 0.1786
Career93720.51050.47380.82270.63770.30270.88910.6770.1767

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2013-04-21 2013-04-25 DTD 4 3 - General Medical Illness - -
2012-07-05 2012-07-15 DTD 10 6 Left Lower Leg Contusion Batted Ball - -
2011-09-04 2011-09-14 DTD 10 9 Right Abdomen Strain Oblique - -
2010-04-13 2010-04-16 DTD 3 2 General Medical Illness GI -
2010-03-01 2010-03-01 Camp 0 0 Left Foot Contusion Batted Ball Off Heel -
2004-02-20 2004-05-30 Coll 100 0 Left Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2004-03-31

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2015 MIN $
2014 MIN $2,000,000
2013 MIN $1,300,000
2012 MIN $515,000
2011 MIN $462,500
2010 MIN $417,500
2009 MIN $400,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
5 yrPrevious$3,095,000
2011Current$2,000,000
6 yrPvs + Cur$5,095,000
6 yrTotal$5,095,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
4 y 104 dSelect Sports Group1 year/$2M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$2M (2014). Re-signed by Minnesota 1/17/14 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$1.3M (2013). Re-signed by Minnesota 1/18/13 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$0.515M (2012). Re-signed by Minnesota 3/3/12.
  • 1 year/$0.4625M (2011). Re-signed by Minnesota 3/11. Sent outright to Triple-A by Minnesota 10/20/11.
  • 1 year/$0.4175M (2010). Re-signed by Minnesota 3/7/10.
  • 1 year (2009). Contract purchased by Minnesota 11/19/08. Re-signed by Minnesota 3/8/09. Recalled 7/3/09.
  • Drafted by Minnesota 2005 (3-84) (Nebraska). $0.4M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 0 0 0 0 0 68.4 58 17 49 4 .264 1.10 2.80 3.04 0.0 0.0
80o 0 0 0 0 0 62.7 57 17 45 4 .277 1.17 3.13 3.41 0.0 0.0
70o 0 0 0 0 0 58.7 56 16 42 4 .286 1.23 3.38 3.67 0.0 0.0
60o 0 0 0 0 0 55.3 55 16 39 4 .294 1.28 3.59 3.9 0.0 0.0
50o 0 0 0 0 0 52.2 54 16 37 4 .302 1.32 3.79 4.12 0.0 0.0
40o 0 0 0 0 0 49.2 52 15 35 4 .309 1.37 3.99 4.34 0.0 0.0
30o 0 0 0 0 0 46.0 51 15 33 4 .317 1.43 4.21 4.57 0.0 0.0
20o 0 0 0 0 0 42.3 49 14 30 4 .327 1.49 4.47 4.85 0.0 0.0
10o 0 0 0 0 0 37.4 46 13 27 3 .340 1.58 4.83 5.25 0.0 0.0
Weighted Mean0000051.75315374.3001.313.774.090.00.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
12% 39% 21% 24% 81%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20153221047050531633447.3061.394.184.549.62.96.00.70.2
20163321045048531532447.3121.434.414.8010.02.86.00.80.1
20173421038040441427447.3061.444.404.789.83.16.00.90.1
20183511030032361122347.3151.454.655.0610.03.16.10.8-0.0
20193611030032361122347.3181.484.745.1510.23.16.30.9-0.1
20203711028030341020347.3141.474.605.0010.23.06.00.9-0.0
2021381002602730918347.3111.434.625.029.93.05.91.0-0.0
2022391002102225814247.3131.484.745.1510.13.25.60.8-0.1
2023401001902023713247.3121.504.765.1810.43.25.90.9-0.1

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
26.31016.17.31.36.361

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 83)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 90 Tim Stauffer 2013 3.75
2 88 Wilbur Wood 1973 4.16
3 87 Chris Bosio 1994 5.18
4 87 Frank Sullivan 1961 5.25
5 87 Bob Ojeda 1989 3.89
6 87 Dean Chance 1972 0.00 DNP
7 86 Roger Nelson 1975 0.00 DNP
8 86 Doug Drabek 1994 3.17
9 86 Larry Jackson 1962 4.32 DNP
10 86 Sergio Mitre 2012 0.00 DNP
11 86 Orel Hershiser 1990 4.26
12 85 Mike Caldwell 1980 4.47
13 85 Kyle Lohse 2010 7.34
14 85 Dock Ellis 1976 3.53
15 85 Doug Davis 2007 4.67
16 85 Jack McDowell 1997 5.53
17 85 Dave Goltz 1980 4.78
18 85 Joe Saunders 2012 4.53
19 85 Gaylord Perry 1970 3.78
20 85 Rick Reuschel 1980 3.85
21 85 Cliff Lee 2010 3.56
22 85 Jose Mesa 1997 3.06
23 85 Paul Maholm 2013 4.82
24 85 Wandy Rodriguez 2010 4.38
25 84 Frank Lary 1961 3.82
26 84 Billy O'Dell 1964 5.82
27 84 Brad Penny 2009 5.30
28 84 Jim Beattie 1986 6.25
29 84 Barry Zito 2009 4.17
30 84 Matt Belisle 2011 4.12
31 84 Jon Garland 2011 4.33
32 84 Jack Morris 1986 3.54
33 83 Steve Rogers 1981 3.59
34 83 Bryn Smith 1987 4.85
35 83 Warren Spahn 1952 3.26
36 83 Don Sutton 1976 3.30
37 83 Bill Hands 1971 4.16
38 83 Bud Black 1988 5.22
39 83 Mark Buehrle 2010 4.49
40 83 Jason Jennings 2010 0.00 DNP
41 83 Tomo Ohka 2007 6.27
42 83 Andy Messersmith 1977 4.75
43 83 Charlie Leibrandt 1988 3.63
44 83 Jeff Francis 2012 5.65
45 83 Bob Rush 1957 4.96
46 83 Gil Meche 2010 6.13
47 83 Sidney Ponson 2008 5.90
48 83 Andy Ashby 1999 4.15
49 83 Jaret Wright 2007 9.58
50 83 Steve Gromek 1951 3.53
51 82 Mel Parnell 1953 3.66
52 82 Brian Bannister 2012 0.00 DNP
53 82 Gary Peters 1968 4.37
54 82 John Lackey 2010 4.77
55 82 Jerry Reuss 1980 2.90
56 82 Zane Smith 1992 3.57
57 82 A.J. Burnett 2008 4.43
58 82 John Maine 2012 0.00 DNP
59 82 Ramiro Mendoza 2003 6.88
60 82 Jim O'Toole 1968 0.00 DNP
61 82 Phil Niekro 1970 4.86
62 82 Jeremy Guthrie 2010 4.00
63 82 John Smiley 1996 4.14
64 82 Ben McDonald 1999 0.00 DNP
65 82 Dick Donovan 1959 4.21
66 82 Whitey Ford 1960 3.50
67 82 Scott Erickson 1999 4.96
68 81 Jim Palmer 1977 2.99
69 81 Jack Sanford 1960 4.48
70 81 Moose Haas 1987 6.42
71 81 Burt Hooton 1981 2.66
72 81 Cory Lidle 2003 6.21
73 81 Ted Higuera 1989 3.72
74 81 Joe Horlen 1969 4.01
75 81 Roberto Hernandez 2012 9.42
76 81 Terry Mulholland 1994 7.01
77 81 Terry Adams 2004 5.27
78 81 Kelvim Escobar 2007 3.63
79 81 LaTroy Hawkins 2004 2.96
80 81 Jorge Sosa 2009 6.85
81 81 Joel Pineiro 2010 3.90
82 81 Bob Gibson 1967 3.18
83 81 Reggie Cleveland 1979 7.20
84 81 Mike Garcia 1955 4.27
85 81 Andy McGaffigan 1988 3.05
86 81 Kip Wells 2008 6.93
87 80 Jose Rijo 1996 0.00 DNP
88 80 Ken Forsch 1978 2.97
89 80 Alex Fernandez 2001 0.00 DNP
90 80 Jack Billingham 1974 4.41
91 80 Claude Osteen 1971 3.75
92 80 Chris Narveson 2013 0.00
93 80 Kevin Correia 2012 4.68
94 80 Dave Schmidt 1988 4.03
95 80 Jimmy Key 1992 3.66
96 80 Brian Lawrence 2007 6.83
97 80 Jason Marquis 2010 7.21
98 80 Kevin Brown 1996 2.32
99 80 Bartolo Colon 2004 5.27
100 80 Adam Bernero 2008 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .263 .303 .382 .245
11 vs R (Multi) .298 .358 .453 .288
18 Split (Multi) -.035 -.055 -.071 -.043
19 LgAvg (Multi) -.026 -.032 -.063 -.030
30 vs L (2013) .303 .344 .443 .280
31 vs R (2013) .263 .348 .364 .261
38 Split (2013) .041 -.005 .078 .018
39 LgAvg (2013) -.025 -.031 -.062 -.029

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 The Twins' 2013 rotation is about as open as they come, but several years of data suggest that Duensing's career as a starting pitcher should probably be over. As a reliever in 2012, Duensing faced 231 batters and put up a 3.44 ERA, with only one home run allowed; as a starter, he faced 241 batters and put up a 6.92 ERA, surrendering nine homers. In his career, Duensing has thrown about 2.5 times as many innings as a starter than as a reliever, but has given up six times as many homers. The starting thing just isn't working. He can be exceptionally useful as a set-up man, having held left-handed hitters to a 560 career OPS (678 in 2012) while getting torched by righties to the tune of an 830 OPS (808 in 2012).
2012 After shuttling between bullpen and rotation during his first two seasons, Duensing was anointed as a starter early in the spring of 2011. To that point, he had put up a sterling 2.93 ERA in 22 starts, with a .288 BABIP masking a not-so-sterling 3.96 FIP—a performance comparable to what he'd done in the bullpen. Alas, Duensing's 2011 was a nightmare, as his performance against righties collapsed from .277/.336/.411 in 2009-2010 to .330/.387/.560, with both his BABIP and home run rate against them ballooning (from .294 to .357 on the former, and from 2.6 to 3.8 percent on the latter). Blame some on the Twins' substandard infield defense and bad luck on fly balls, but some is lack of stuff to take down righties. The Twins plan to move Duensing back to the bullpen, but with so many starters on thin ice, he could get another shot.
2011 Last season, Duensing proved that he was more than just a Quad-A pitcher with the ceiling of a spot starter or long reliever. He moved into the rotation when injuries struck in late July and pitched as well as any Twins starter down the stretch, albeit with the aid of a low BABIP. Regardless of any help he may have had along the way, the team went 9-4 in his 13 starts, although he looked helpless in the decisive third game of the ALDS against the Yankees. Duensing doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, featuring a fastball that averages 91 mph to go with a slider, curveball, and changeup, but he throws strikes and never gets rattled. He won't be an ace, but he has proven that he can belongs in a major-league rotation.
2010 Duensing was seen as an organizational lefty coming into the year, but he joined the Twins for good in July, replaced Francisco Liriano in the rotation at the end of August, and more than held his own in both roles. Like most young arms raised in the Twins' system, Duensing is far from overpowering, but his fastball has enough velocity to set up his changeup, which is a true plus offering; he also mixes in both a curveball and a slider. There's not much of a ceiling here, but he's earned a right to compete for a back-end rotation job this spring.
2009 The Twins are like Chrysler in the K-Car era, mass-producing a style-less but functional model that's just good enough to keep them in business—although the one thing Twins pitching prospects don't get is Ks. Duensing is another off the assembly line, with standard-feature good control and let-'em-hit-it styling. He varies slightly from his fellow Twin Pitchers™ in that he's not an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but his ceiling is still back-end starter or middle relief.
2008 The Twins mass-produce command pitchers who have ten percent less stuff than would get anyone particularly excited about them. Loosely speaking, Duensing is what you get if make Blackburn throw lefty and give him a slider. A Nebraska product, Duensing has had more consistent success through the system than Blackburn, but right now the two are essentially even. If teams still used swingmen, platooning the pair in the fifth-starter slot would be a neat tactic that would break both into the majors effectively while giving the Twins a small competitive edge. Anybody remember when managers showed initiative?
2007 Southpaw Brian Duensing moved from Low-A to Double-A in one year, but as a 23 year old, he probably belonged in Double-A in the first place. That said, he`s a command and control lefty who depends on changing speeds, the kind of pitcher who has a hard time succeeding in the big leagues.

BP Articles

Brian Duensing is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2012-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on the Twins' organizational phobia against strikeout pitchers?
(PepeShady from St Paul)
On the whole, it doesn't help them. But they do a very good job of making the most of what they do, so I can't fault them on that account. I like guys like Brian Duensing, or going back farther, Brad Radke, but they always live on the edge between success and getting pummeled. It's a tough way to make a long career. (Mike Fast)
2011-09-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)One last question and I know it may be early for this one... Any hitters or pitchers you like a breakout candidates next year?
(Jquinton82 from NY)
Hm, I like the look of Jerome Williams in a small sample this year. I think Fister and McCarthy may be the real deal, though they're not exactly breakout candidates any more. I like Brian Duensing coming into this season, and still do.

Dave Robertson and Kenley Jansen are two names that will surprise no one, but they could end up in bigger roles. In that vein, Greg Holland for the Royals, Vinnie Pestano for the Indians. And in the this-guys-stuff-intrigues-me-but-his-wildness-scares-me category, plus he has a cool name: Fautino de los Santos. (Mike Fast)
2011-05-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)What numbers do you expect from Hosmer for the balance of the season? Does he move into elite 1B territory as soon as next year? Also, tell me anything worth hearing about my Twins.
(Patrick from DE)
The PECOTA projection was for .272/.326/.439, but PECOTA isn't told about his struggles with eyesight in 2009, so I expect better. I am hopeful for elite 1B territory at some point. Hmm, next year...as a Royals fan it's incredibly tempting to say yes. I'm not sure the evidence is there yet, though, if I try to be objective. I really want to say yes, though.

Something worth hearing about your Twins? Ouch. Let's see...Jeremy Greenhouse found Carl Pavano had the straightest fastball in the Hardball Times Annual last fall...no wait, that's probably not the kind of thing you wanted to hear.

How 'bout this: I really like Brian Duensing. He seems to be an under-the-radar guy who has decent stuff and good control. I like Scott Baker, too. (Mike Fast)
2010-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)OK, so this Brian Duensing thing is just a mirage, right? It wasn't a great outing last night, but a tough enough matchup that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
(ChuckR from Addison, IL)
The ERA is definitely a mirage, but he had very low walk rates in the minors that allowed him to get away with the below-average whiff rate. As long as he has his control he's league average or a little better, but his ERA should be two runs higher than it is right now. (Marc Normandin)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Brian Duensing has thrown 9,307 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (92mph), Slider (83mph) and Fourseam Fastball (92mph), also mixing in a Change (86mph) and Curve (74mph).