Biographical

Portrait of Justin Christian

Justin Christian CFRays

Rays Player Cards | Rays Team Audit | Rays Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 34)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
250 .247 3 30 19 10 .248 0.5
Birth Date4-3-1980
Height6' 1"
Weight195 lbs
Age34 years, 6 months, 18 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
0.12011
-0.42012
2013
0.52014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2008 NYA 28 24 43 40 6 10 3 0 0 13 3 4 0 0 0 6 7 1 .250 .302 .325 .198 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2
2011 SFN 31 18 51 47 6 12 5 0 0 17 2 8 0 0 2 4 3 2 .255 .286 .362 .268 1.3 -0.4 0.1
2012 SFN 32 34 61 56 6 7 1 0 0 8 5 3 0 0 0 2 2 1 .125 .197 .143 .143 -4.7 1.0 -0.4
Career76155143182990038101500212124.203.255.266.199-4.4-0.5-0.5

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2004 STA A- 50 232 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .309 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 CSC A 29 118 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .302 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 TAM A+ 95 416 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .330 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 COH AAA 1 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006 TRN AA 129 516 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .315 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2007 TRN AA 65 278 .227 .261 .338 .392 .259 .270 91 -9.9 8.1 -2 2.8 -1.3 -7.4 -0.5 -7.4 -0.5
2007 SWB AAA 40 183 .284 .268 .335 .406 .264 .358 92 4.9 5.5 -0.7 2.5 4.7 15.0 1.7 15.0 1.7
2008 NYA MLB 24 43 .198 .276 .340 .440 .269 .278 103 -2.8 1.2 -0.2 -1.1 1.2 -1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -0.2
2008 SWB AAA 74 297 .287 .267 .331 .412 .265 .333 87 10.1 9.9 -1.7 5.9 1.6 20.4 2.5 20.4 2.5
2009 NOR AAA 88 386 .235 .265 .332 .404 .252 .303 104 -10.3 11.2 -0.2 7.2 3.7 8.7 1.6 8.7 1.6
2010 TRN AA 87 394 .301 .260 .333 .400 .258 .323 96 17.2 11.3 -3.2 5.3 2.2 25.5 3.1 25.5 3.1
2010 SWB AAA 16 74 .251 .279 .345 .443 .270 .281 94 -0.9 2.7 -0.7 0.3 -0.5 2.2 0.2 2.2 0.2
2011 SFN MLB 18 51 .268 .249 .306 .367 .246 .308 92 0.4 1.4 0 -0.4 0.4 1.3 0.1 1.3 0.1
2011 RIC AA 73 309 .271 .260 .322 .397 .270 .275 84 3.8 9.1 -2.5 3.0 5.5 14.6 1.8 14.6 1.8
2011 FRE AAA 64 280 .331 .283 .353 .445 .263 .354 103 23.4 8.7 -1.8 0.4 3.4 32.5 3.1 32.5 3.1
2011 MOC Wnt 25 114 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .296 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2012 SFN MLB 34 61 .143 .241 .306 .378 .251 .132 93 -7.1 1.7 -0.4 1.0 1.0 -4.7 -0.4 -4.7 -0.4
2012 FRE AAA 72 338 .323 .279 .343 .434 .271 .367 99 23.9 10.0 0.5 -6.8 -0.5 34.1 2.7 34.1 2.7
2013 MEM AAA 107 411 .247 .267 .335 .402 .264 .299 90 -5.9 11.8 -1.1 -5.0 -0.4 0.7 -0.4 0.7 -0.4
2014 DUR AAA 127 520 .264 .264 .334 .400 .255 .300 103 2.3 15.5 -2.5 7.4 4.3 16.3 2.4 16.3 2.4

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2004 STA A- 232 29 57 9 2 7 33 19 39 15 4 .274 .341 .438 .163 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 COH AAA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 CSC A 118 31 29 5 0 3 10 14 12 17 2 .290 .390 .430 .140 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 TAM A+ 416 52 114 27 6 8 37 33 47 38 5 .306 .369 .476 .169 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006 TRN AA 516 76 129 19 9 6 43 43 73 68 13 .276 .339 .394 .118 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2007 TRN AA 278 25 60 8 3 3 32 16 43 18 4 .235 .284 .325 .090 .227 -7.4 2.8 -0.5
2007 SWB AAA 183 32 55 8 4 1 16 10 19 17 2 .325 .366 .438 .112 .284 15.0 2.5 1.7
2008 SWB AAA 297 48 82 17 1 6 45 20 34 22 4 .306 .363 .444 .138 .287 20.4 5.9 2.5
2008 NYA MLB 43 6 10 3 0 0 6 3 4 7 1 .250 .302 .325 .075 .198 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2
2009 NOR AAA 386 54 96 18 5 3 25 20 51 26 3 .270 .308 .374 .104 .235 8.7 7.2 1.6
2010 TRN AA 394 65 102 21 6 9 51 40 47 20 5 .297 .378 .472 .175 .301 25.5 5.3 3.1
2010 SWB AAA 74 9 16 0 0 0 4 8 9 2 0 .242 .324 .242 .000 .251 2.2 0.3 0.2
2011 SFN MLB 51 6 12 5 0 0 4 2 8 3 2 .255 .286 .362 .106 .268 1.3 -0.4 0.1
2011 FRE AAA 280 57 80 20 3 10 41 35 31 36 3 .338 .428 .574 .236 .331 32.5 0.4 3.1
2011 RIC AA 309 46 70 12 2 4 32 23 31 18 2 .256 .328 .359 .103 .271 14.6 3.0 1.8
2011 MOC Wnt 114 17 27 7 0 3 14 9 18 4 1 .265 .342 .422 .157 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2012 SFN MLB 61 6 7 1 0 0 2 5 3 2 1 .125 .197 .143 .018 .143 -4.7 1.0 -0.4
2012 FRE AAA 338 58 104 23 3 7 35 28 32 12 5 .343 .409 .508 .165 .323 34.1 -6.8 2.7
2013 MEM AAA 411 41 101 16 3 3 29 31 44 14 4 .270 .332 .353 .083 .247 0.7 -5.0 -0.4
2014 DUR AAA 520 68 125 37 4 10 37 43 71 16 4 .271 .344 .434 .163 .264 16.3 7.4 2.4

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 132 0.5606 0.4015 0.8868 0.5135 0.2586 0.8947 0.8667 0.1132
2011 184 0.4946 0.4754 0.8736 0.6593 0.2903 0.9167 0.7778 0.1264
2012 218 0.5459 0.4771 0.8654 0.6555 0.2626 0.9231 0.6923 0.1346
Career5340.53190.45780.87350.62170.27120.91390.76490.1265

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2013-06-16 2013-07-17 Minors 31 0 - Not Disclosed - -
2012-08-23 2012-09-07 15-DL 15 13 Left Wrist Sprain - -
2009-07-19 2009-09-08 Minors 51 0 Right Shoulder Strain -
2007-08-07 2007-09-09 Minors 33 0 Left Thumb Sprain - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
1 y 14 dNick Brockmeyer, Platinum Sports1 year (2014)

Details
  • 1 year (2014). Signed by Tampa Bay as a free agent 1/14/14 (minor-league contract).
  • 1 year (2013). Signed by St. Louis as a free agent 11/26/12 (minor-league contract).
  • 1 year (2012). Released by San Francisco 2/13/12. Re-signed by San Francisco as a free agent 2/16/12 (minor-league contract). Contract purchased by San Francisco 6/15/12. Sent outright to Triple-A by San Francisco 10/12/12.
  • 1 year (2011). Signed by San Francisco as a free agent 2/5/11 (minor-league contract). Contract purchased by San Francisco 9/6/11.
  • 1 year (2010). Signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 5/8/10 (minor-league contract).
  • 1 year (2009). Signed by Baltimore as a free agent 1/15/09 (minor-league contract).
  • Signed by NY Yankees as an amateur free agent 7/04.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 513 63 133 26 3 8 49 42 68 25 6 .290 .354 .412 .289 29.0 CF -2, LF 1 3.1
80o 492 58 121 24 3 7 45 38 67 23 5 .275 .337 .390 .275 21.2 CF -2, LF 1 2.3
70o 476 54 112 22 3 6 42 36 66 21 5 .264 .325 .374 .265 15.9 CF -2, LF 1 1.7
60o 463 51 106 21 3 6 40 34 66 20 4 .254 .314 .361 .257 11.6 CF -2, LF 1 1.2
50o 450 49 100 20 2 6 38 32 65 19 4 .246 .304 .349 .249 7.7 CF -1, LF 1 0.8
40o 437 46 94 19 2 5 36 30 64 18 4 .237 .294 .336 .240 4.1 CF -1, LF 1 0.4
30o 424 44 87 17 2 5 34 28 63 16 4 .228 .284 .323 .232 0.5 CF -1, LF 1 0.0
20o 408 41 81 16 2 5 31 26 62 15 3 .218 .272 .308 .222 -3.5 CF -1, LF 1 -0.4
10o 387 37 72 14 2 4 28 23 60 13 3 .203 .255 .287 .208 -8.6 CF -1, LF 1 -0.9
Weighted Mean456501032036393265194.250.309.354.2529.5CF -1, LF 11.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 13% 7% 16% 37%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
201535250245010132018419.218.283.305.224-0.6-5.80.7-0.114.1-20.4-0.0
20163625024529122017398.233.292.309.226-0.6-5.10.4-0.214.9-20.2-0.0
20173751648107203439348115.226.285.302.222-0.9-7.80.3-0.614.9-22.5-0.1
20183860455122223344409615.222.280.290.217-1.3-12.1-0.3-0.814.9-25.9-0.1
201939318296411122422517.223.281.293.217-1.2-11.3-0.4-0.514.9-25.3-0.1
202040627571262234464210011.220.277.288.214-1.6-15.0-1.3-1.214.9-27.4-0.1
2021415014510018233634808.218.277.284.212-1.7-15.8-1.4-1.114.9-28.3-0.1
20224264059130223448431028.225.282.295.217-1.5-13.9-2.0-1.614.9-25.3-0.1
20234363060126223549451126.221.281.298.218-1.6-14.2-2.3-1.714.9-25.1-0.1

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
0.40.60.30.40.20.51.9

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 66)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 83 Andy Abad 2007 .000 DNP
2 78 Rich Thompson 2013 .000 DNP
3 76 Kerry Robinson 2008 .000 DNP
4 76 Jim Rushford 2008 .000 DNP
5 75 Jesus Feliciano 2013 .000 DNP
6 74 Michel Hernandez 2013 .000 DNP
7 73 Esteban German 2012 .000 DNP
8 73 Robby Hammock 2011 .006
9 73 Erick Almonte 2012 .000 DNP
10 73 Timo Perez 2009 .000 DNP
11 73 Keith Ginter 2010 .000 DNP
12 72 Pete Orr 2013 .192
13 72 Robinson Cancel 2010 .000 DNP
14 72 Dusty Wathan 2008 .000 DNP
15 71 Jose Flores 2007 .000 DNP
16 71 Russ Johnson 2007 .000 DNP
17 71 Joe Dillon 2010 .000 DNP
18 71 Mike Kinkade 2007 .000 DNP
19 70 Wiki Gonzalez 2008 .000 DNP
20 70 Mike Cervenak 2011 .000 DNP
21 70 Howie Clark 2008 .256
22 70 Jorge Velandia 2009 .000 DNP
23 69 Mark Johnson 2010 .000 DNP
24 69 Luis Figueroa 2008 .000 DNP
25 69 Matt Kata 2012 .000 DNP
26 68 Lou Collier 2008 .000 DNP
27 68 Wilson Valdez 2012 .183
28 67 Wes Timmons 2013 .000 DNP
29 67 Chris Heintz 2009 .000 DNP
30 67 Jeff Liefer 2009 .000 DNP
31 67 Chris Coste 2007 .246
32 67 Bobby Scales 2012 .000 DNP
33 67 Nick Green 2013 .242
34 67 Fernando Tatis 2009 .259
35 67 Terry Tiffee 2013 .000 DNP
36 66 Scott Podsednik 2010 .252
37 66 Jay Gibbons 2011 .258
38 66 Mark Little 2007 .000 DNP
39 66 Edgar Gonzalez 2012 .000 DNP
40 66 Paul Phillips 2011 .000 DNP
41 65 Shannon Stewart 2008 .226
42 65 Carlos Maldonado 2013 .000 DNP
43 65 Pete Rose 1975 .300
44 65 Oscar Salazar 2012 .000 DNP
45 64 Endy Chavez 2012 .195
46 64 Frank Catalanotto 2008 .252
47 64 Jay Payton 2007 .242
48 64 Marlon Anderson 2008 .209
49 64 Jed Hansen 2007 .000 DNP
50 63 Corky Miller 2010 .224
51 63 Reed Johnson 2011 .291
52 63 Eric Byrnes 2010 .178
53 63 Roy White 1978 .276
54 63 Augie Ojeda 2009 .240
55 63 Chris Aguila 2013 .000 DNP
56 63 Mike Rivera 2011 .237
57 63 Tim Raines 1994 .264
58 62 Gene Woodling 1957 .343
59 62 Ryan Freel 2010 .000 DNP
60 62 Gates Brown 1973 .254
61 62 Alfredo Amezaga 2012 .000 DNP
62 62 Darnell McDonald 2013 .258
63 62 Ed Kranepool 1979 .221
64 62 Brian Myrow 2011 .000 DNP
65 62 Don Buford 1971 .334
66 62 Manny Mota 1972 .309
67 61 Mike Lamb 2010 .168
68 61 Jerry Hairston 2010 .256
69 61 Harvey Kuenn 1965 .241
70 61 Paul Hoover 2010 .179
71 61 Bill Madlock 1985 .275
72 61 David Newhan 2008 .233
73 61 Kevin McReynolds 1994 .257
74 61 Darin Erstad 2008 .239
75 61 Jose Cardenal 1978 .253
76 61 Luis Gonzalez 2002 .303
77 61 Jeff DaVanon 2008 .000 DNP
78 61 Tommy Holmes 1951 .194
79 61 Vernon Wells 2013 .238
80 61 Jose Cruz 1982 .274
81 61 Al Oliver 1981 .275
82 61 Minnie Minoso 1960 .310
83 61 Jack Wilson 2012 .148
84 61 Robb Quinlan 2011 .000 DNP
85 61 Julio Lugo 2010 .212
86 61 Gabe Kapler 2010 .218
87 60 Matty Alou 1973 .254
88 60 Jay Johnstone 1980 .289
89 60 Brady Clark 2007 .247
90 60 Carney Lansford 1991 .038
91 60 Randy Winn 2008 .285
92 60 Ramon Vazquez 2011 .000 DNP
93 60 Cesar Cedeno 1985 .272
94 60 Josh Bard 2012 .000 DNP
95 60 Ross Gload 2010 .291
96 60 Buddy Bell 1986 .284
97 60 Willie Harris 2012 .149
98 60 Scott Spiezio 2007 .261
99 60 Johnny Damon 2008 .286
100 60 Edgar Renteria 2011 .244

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2013 As a 33-year-old who has struggled to stay healthy and keep his major-league batting average above the Mendoza Line, Justin Christian's big-league days are likely over.
2012 Christian was a two-sport athlete in high school, but he chose baseball over football for its longevity—less likely to get hurt, he figured. Oh, irony, you're a cad. Christian has been hurt constantly—six surgeries and counting—but he's still going a decade and a half later, catching the Giants' attention with a strong performance in the Mexican Winter League in 2010. Even at 31, he struggled against Double-A pitching before taking off in the Pacific Coast League's generous air. That earned a September call-up for the Bay Area native. This is as famous as he's likely to get, but he is a remarkably efficient basestealer: After swiping 54 bags in 59 tries in 2011, he now has an 87 percent success rate in nine minor league seasons.
2009 Justin Christian's long journey from the independent Frontier League culminated in a call-up during an injury-inflicted roster crunch; non-tendered in December, he's strictly reserve material.

BP Articles

Justin Christian is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: The Plate Discipline-Only ProspectBen Lindbergh2013-06-06
This article requires BP Premium accessSobsequy: Notable NL Minor-League Free Agent SigneesAdam Sobsey2013-02-27
Overthinking It: Why Nobody Gets Caught StealingBen Lindbergh2012-11-08
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: NLCS Preview: Cardinals and GiantsSam Miller2012-10-14
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: NLCS Preview: Cardinals and GiantsR.J. Anderson2012-10-14
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: Giants-Reds Division Series PreviewSam Miller2012-10-06
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: Outfielders for 8/24/12Paul Singman2012-08-24
BP Unfiltered: Melky Cabrera, PEDs, and the Giants' Playoff OddsBen Lindbergh2012-08-15
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: AL East MovesChristina Kahrl2009-05-28
Transaction Analysis: AL RoundupChristina Kahrl2008-12-14
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Preview: Tuesday's Games to WatchCaleb Peiffer2008-07-01


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2009-02-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Bryan, I'm glad your NCAA coverage will be resuming soon! Could you give us a brief rundown on the Big Ten this year and Michigan/Minnesota in particular? Thanks.
(lemppi from Ankeny, IA)
Michigan lost a lot more than just Zach Putnam; at the very least, another draft star in Justin Christian, and a college star in Nate Recknagel. Six members of the starting nine are gone, as well as the ace (Putnam) and closer (Michael Powers). However, much of the pitching staff is still in tact, which gives the Wolverines the edge in the conference. However, don't sleep on the upstart Indiana Hoosiers, who return much of the offense that hit .339/.411/.476 last season, Phegley being the obvious star. The key will be an improvement from a pitching staff that had a 6.22 ERA -- no doubt let down by the nation's 258th-ranked defense. Matt Bashore is a true ace, and the team has some interesting arms in Blake Monar and Kyle Leiendecker. I just love what Tracy Smith has done with this program, and a conference title is not out of the question. (Bryan Smith)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Hitter Profile

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