Biographical

Portrait of Matt Cain

Matt Cain PGiants

Giants Player Cards | Giants Team Audit | Giants Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 29)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
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Birth Date10-1-1984
Height6' 3"
Weight230 lbs
Age30 years, 0 months, 30 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
1.22010
2.52011
3.22012
1.22013
2.12014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2005 SFN 20 7 7 46.3 46.3 0.0 2 1 0 0 6 0 181 24 12 12 4 38 19 18 0 30 2.33 4.05 4.20 4.4 0.4
2006 SFN 21 32 31 190.7 188.7 2.0 13 12 0 0 14 1 818 157 93 88 18 263 87 86 6 179 4.15 3.92 4.21 24.6 2.2
2007 SFN 22 32 32 200.0 200.0 0.0 7 16 0 0 22 0 832 173 84 81 14 269 79 76 5 163 3.64 3.72 4.18 26.0 2.7
2008 SFN 23 34 34 217.7 217.7 0.0 8 14 0 0 21 3 933 206 95 91 19 328 91 82 7 186 3.76 3.88 4.21 29.7 3.2
2009 SFN 24 33 33 217.7 217.7 0.0 14 8 0 0 20 2 886 184 73 70 22 296 73 67 3 171 2.89 3.85 4.25 19.0 1.8
2010 SFN 25 33 33 223.3 223.3 0.0 13 11 0 0 25 1 896 181 84 78 22 302 61 57 4 177 3.14 3.67 4.23 11.5 1.2
2011 SFN 26 33 33 221.7 221.7 0.0 12 11 0 0 26 0 907 177 82 71 9 260 63 58 9 179 2.88 2.88 3.47 24.9 2.5
2012 SFN 27 32 32 219.3 219.3 0.0 16 5 0 0 21 1 876 177 73 68 21 287 51 50 9 193 2.79 3.44 3.66 31.0 3.2
2013 SFN 28 30 30 184.3 184.3 0.0 8 10 0 0 20 0 760 158 85 82 23 269 55 52 5 158 4.00 3.90 4.47 9.3 1.2
2014 SFN 29 15 15 90.3 90.3 0.0 2 7 0 0 6 1 374 81 47 42 13 139 32 30 2 70 4.18 4.55 5.51 -5.7 -0.6
Career2812801811.31809.32.095950018197463151872868316524516115765015063.393.704.15174.617.7

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2003 HAG A 14 14 74.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .291 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 SJO A+ 13 13 72.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .301 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 NRW AA 15 15 86.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .264 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 SFN MLB 7 7 46.3 4.20 107 .183 .258 .321 .409 .252 .156 99 4.8 0.5 4.4 0.4
2005 FRE AAA 26 26 145.7 5.40 75 .258 .270 .345 .429 .269 .250 81 10.5 1.0 11.4 1.1
2006 SFN MLB 32 31 190.7 4.21 104 .244 .262 .326 .423 .260 .263 89 24.1 2.3 24.6 2.2
2007 SFN MLB 32 32 200.0 4.18 109 .234 .267 .333 .421 .260 .278 96 26.3 2.6 26.0 2.7
2008 SFN MLB 34 34 217.7 4.21 105 .262 .259 .325 .409 .259 .297 95 26.6 2.7 29.7 3.2
2009 SFN MLB 33 33 217.7 4.25 98 .240 .255 .323 .404 .258 .263 92 16.9 1.7 19.0 1.8
2010 SFN MLB 33 33 223.3 4.23 93 .243 .252 .318 .394 .263 .252 90 12.6 1.3 11.5 1.2
2011 SFN MLB 33 33 221.7 3.47 108 .227 .248 .312 .382 .257 .260 90 22.5 2.4 24.9 2.5
2012 SFN MLB 32 32 219.3 3.66 107 .235 .255 .316 .403 .260 .259 92 25.6 2.7 31.0 3.2
2013 SFN MLB 30 30 184.3 4.47 90 .246 .251 .310 .387 .254 .260 100 9.0 1.0 9.3 1.2
2014 SFN MLB 15 15 90.3 5.51 60 .268 .247 .309 .388 .258 .265 98 -5.7 -0.6 -5.7 -0.6

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2003 HAG A 4 4 0 14 14 74.0 57 24 90 5 0% .291 6.9 2.9 0.6 10.9 1.09 2.55 0.0 0.0
2004 NRW AA 6 4 0 15 15 86.0 73 40 72 7 0% .264 7.6 4.2 0.7 7.5 1.31 3.35 0.0 0.0
2004 SJO A+ 7 1 0 13 13 72.7 58 17 89 5 0% .301 7.2 2.1 0.6 11.0 1.03 1.86 0.0 0.0
2005 SFN MLB 2 1 0 7 7 46.3 24 19 30 4 30% .156 4.7 3.7 0.8 5.8 0.93 2.33 4.4 0.4
2005 FRE AAA 10 5 0 26 26 145.7 118 73 176 22 31% .250 7.3 4.5 1.4 10.9 1.31 4.39 11.4 1.1
2006 SFN MLB 13 12 0 32 31 190.7 157 87 179 18 39% .263 7.4 4.1 0.8 8.4 1.28 4.15 24.6 2.2
2007 SFN MLB 7 16 0 32 32 200.0 173 79 163 14 41% .278 7.8 3.6 0.6 7.3 1.26 3.65 26.0 2.7
2008 SFN MLB 8 14 0 34 34 217.7 206 91 186 19 34% .297 8.5 3.8 0.8 7.7 1.36 3.76 29.7 3.2
2009 SFN MLB 14 8 0 33 33 217.7 184 73 171 22 41% .263 7.6 3.0 0.9 7.1 1.18 2.89 19.0 1.8
2010 SFN MLB 13 11 0 33 33 223.3 181 61 177 22 37% .252 7.3 2.5 0.9 7.1 1.08 3.14 11.5 1.2
2011 SFN MLB 12 11 0 33 33 221.7 177 63 179 9 44% .260 7.2 2.6 0.4 7.3 1.08 2.88 24.9 2.5
2012 SFN MLB 16 5 0 32 32 219.3 177 51 193 21 41% .259 7.3 2.1 0.9 7.9 1.04 2.79 31.0 3.2
2013 SFN MLB 8 10 0 30 30 184.3 158 55 158 23 39% .260 7.7 2.7 1.1 7.7 1.16 4.00 9.3 1.2
2014 SFN MLB 2 7 0 15 15 90.3 81 32 70 13 46% .265 8.1 3.2 1.3 7.0 1.25 4.18 -5.7 -0.6

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 3422 0.5362 0.4798 0.8062 0.6305 0.3050 0.8583 0.6818 0.1913
2009 3272 0.5324 0.4838 0.8135 0.6343 0.3118 0.8824 0.6541 0.1852
2010 3380 0.5260 0.4862 0.8203 0.6462 0.3077 0.8799 0.6815 0.1790
2011 3471 0.4938 0.4749 0.7971 0.6441 0.3085 0.8732 0.6421 0.1999
2012 3340 0.5153 0.4802 0.7973 0.6572 0.2915 0.8568 0.6547 0.2027
2013 2911 0.5067 0.4737 0.8142 0.6373 0.3050 0.8979 0.6347 0.1851
2014 1434 0.4833 0.4574 0.7985 0.6176 0.3063 0.8645 0.6740 0.1954
Career212300.51620.47830.80730.64010.3050.87350.65970.191

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-09-27 2014-09-27 On-Alr 0 0 Right Ankle Surgery Bone Spur 2014-09-27
2014-07-11 - 60-DL - - Right Elbow Surgery Bone Chips - Present for 10 Years 2014-08-12
2014-05-22 2014-06-06 15-DL 15 14 Right Thigh Strain Hamstring - -
2014-04-24 2014-05-10 15-DL 16 14 Right Fingers Laceration Index Finer In Kitchen Accident - -
2013-08-23 2013-09-07 15-DL 15 14 Right Forearm Contusion Batted Ball - -
2013-02-24 2013-02-28 Camp 4 0 Right Lower Leg Contusion Batted Ball - -
2012-06-18 2012-06-18 DTD 0 0 Left Forearm Contusion - -
2011-02-28 2011-03-14 Camp 14 0 Right Elbow Inflammation -
2009-07-12 2009-07-19 DTD 7 3 Right Elbow Contusion -
2008-05-30 2008-05-30 DTD 0 0 Groin Contusion Batted Ball -
2008-05-03 2008-05-03 DTD 0 0 Right Thigh Soreness Hamstring -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2018 SFN $7,500,000
2017 SFN $20,833,333
2016 SFN $20,833,333
2015 SFN $20,833,333
2014 SFN $20,833,333
2013 SFN $20,833,333
2012 SFN $15,833,333
2011 SFN $7,333,333
2010 SFN $4,583,333
2009 SFN $2,900,000
2008 SFN $700,000
2007 SFN $400,000
2006 SFN $328,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
8 yrPrevious$52,911,332
2011Current$20,833,333
9 yrPvs + Cur$73,744,665
4 yrFuture$69,999,999
13 yrTotal$143,744,664

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
8 y 38 dRick Landrum, Landon Williams6 years/$127.5M (2012-17), 2018 option

Details
  • 6 years/$127.5M (2012-17), plus 2018 option. Signed extension with San Francisco 4/2/12, replacing final year of previous deal. Largest-ever contract for right-handed pitcher. $5M signing bonus. 12:$15M, 13:$20M, 14:$20M, 15:$20M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M, 18:$21M option, $7.5M buyout. 2018 option guaranteed if Cain 1) pitches 200 innings in 2017 or 400 innings in 2016-17 and 2) is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2017 season with an elbow or shoulder injury to his right arm. If option does not vest, it becomes a club option. Award bonuses: $50,000 each for Gold Glove, Silver Slugger. $0.1M for All-Star. $0.15M for LCS MVP. $0.2M for WS MVP. $0.25M for MVP ($0.15M for 2nd in vote, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th). $0.5M for Cy Young ($0.25M for 2nd place, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th). $1M for subsequent Cy Youngs.
  • 3 years/$27.25M (2010-12). Signed extension with San Francisco 3/28/10, replacing final season in previous deal. $1M signing bonus (due 2011). 10:$4.25M, 11:$7M, 12:$15M. Rank in Cy Young vote could increase 2011 and 2012 salaries by $0.5M each. Annual performance bonuses: $50,000 for 225 IP. Limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 8 clubs).
  • 4 years/$9M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option. Signed extension with San Francisco 3/07. $1M signing bonus. 07:$0.4M, 08:$0.7M, 09:$2.65M, 10:$4.25M, 11:$6.25M club option. 2011 option may vest based on starts, IP and Cy Young results. 2011 option does not vest if Cain finishes 2010 season on DL with right arm injury (except option may vest if Cain wins 2010 Cy Young or has 60 starts or 400 IP 2009-10). Performance bonuses: $0.2M with 32 games started or 210 IP in '09, $0.4M with 32 games started or 210 IP in 2010.
  • 1 year/$0.328M (2006). Re-signed by San Francisco 3/06.
  • 1 year (2005). Contract purchased by San Francisco 8/05.
  • Drafted by San Francisco 2002 (1-25) (Houston HS, Germantown, Tenn.). $1.375M signing bonus.

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Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .224 .295 .353 .241
11 vs R (Multi) .226 .274 .384 .240
18 Split (Multi) -.002 .022 -.031 .001
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .215 .294 .350 .241
31 vs R (2013) .239 .285 .419 .257
38 Split (2013) -.025 .008 -.069 -.016
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Matt Cain is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
Playoff Prospectus: 1-2-3 RepeaterMiles Wray2014-10-28
The Lineup Card: Nine of the Worst Postseason Managerial DecisionsBaseball Prospectus2014-10-09
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This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: NLDS Preview: Nationals vs. GiantsMike Gianella2014-10-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: NLDS Preview: Nationals vs. GiantsDoug Thorburn2014-10-03
This article requires BP Premium accessPitching Backward: In Love With LohseJeff Long2014-10-02
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The Lineup Card: Nine Comeback of the Year Candidates for 2015Baseball Prospectus2014-09-10
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: August 29, 2014Chris Mosch2014-08-29
The Lineup Card: 8 of Our Favorite Broadcasters (Non-Vin Scully Edition)Baseball Prospectus2014-08-06
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 17Wilson Karaman2014-07-18
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: The Tigers' Roaring ComebackChris Mosch2014-07-09
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Looking at Values, Part 2: PitchersMike Gianella2014-06-30
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This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Weekend Wrap-Up, 6/23Daniel Rathman2014-06-23
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Model Behavior: DIPS, Random Variation, and the Matt Cain QuandaryLewie Pollis2014-06-12
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Walking the WalkChris Mosch2014-06-12
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BP Unfiltered: This Week's New Pitching Lines, 5/23Sam Miller2014-05-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week NineWilson Karaman2014-05-23
BP Unfiltered: This Week's New Pitching Lines, 5/16Sam Miller2014-05-16
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This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Odorizzi Blows Away the M'sMorris Greenberg2014-05-15
Pebble Hunting: Recent History's Most Cringe-Worthy Pitch CountsSam Miller2014-05-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week SixWilson Karaman2014-05-02
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Revere Does Not Go DeepDaniel Rathman2014-04-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Darkhorses: ERABP Fantasy Staff2014-03-25
Tout Wars Recap: National LeagueMike Gianella2014-03-25
The Lineup Card: 11 Spring Training Performances We Sort of Believe InBaseball Prospectus2014-03-19
This article requires BP Premium accessBaseball's Seven Wonders: Kerry Wood's 20-K GameSam Miller2014-03-18
The Week in Quotes: March 3-9Chris Mosch2014-03-10
The Week in Quotes: March 3-9Morris Greenberg2014-03-10
The Week in Quotes: March 3-9Nick Wheatley-Schaller2014-03-10
LABR Recap: Part Two: NL-Only AuctionMike Gianella2014-03-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersIan Lefkowitz2014-02-28
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersBen Murphy2014-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 175 Starting PitchersBret Sayre2014-02-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting PitchersPaul Sporer2014-02-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTale of the Tape: Matt Cain vs. Zack GreinkeAlex Kantecki2014-02-27
The Lineup Card: Nine Players We Expect to Improve in 2014Baseball Prospectus2014-02-26
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The Week in Quotes: February 10-16Nick Bacarella2014-02-17
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The Week in Quotes: February 10-16Morris Greenberg2014-02-17
The Week in Quotes: February 10-16Nick Wheatley-Schaller2014-02-17
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Parsing the PECOTAsBen Lindbergh2014-02-04
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: San Francisco GiantsMike Gianella2014-01-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Bargains and Busts: National League PitchersMike Gianella2013-12-05
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Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 2, 2013Joe Hamrahi2013-04-02
Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 2, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-02
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: An Offensively Good StartDaniel Rathman2013-04-02
Raising Aces: Against the GrainDoug Thorburn2013-03-29
Pre-Season Predictions: Staff Picks for 2013Baseball Prospectus2013-03-29
Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week OnePaul Sporer2013-03-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Tier Rankings: National League Starting PitchersPaul Sporer2013-03-28
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Turnover in MiamiDaniel Rathman2013-03-21
Pitcher Profile: Four Growing GiantsHarry Pavlidis2013-03-08
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessPre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 80 Fantasy Starting Pitchers, Part One: 1-40Paul Sporer2013-03-05
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This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: Count to 300R.J. Anderson2013-02-28
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Western Front: Even Writers Need Spring TrainingGeoff Young2013-02-26
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Pebble Hunting: The Saddest Age-27 Seasons of 2012Sam Miller2013-01-04
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Transaction Jackson Settles InR.J. Anderson2012-12-21
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Jeremy Hellickson and Defying RegressionJason Collette2012-12-14
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Dodgers Go Big for GreinkeSam Miller2012-12-10
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The BP Wayback Machine: Grand Ole OpryJohn Perrotto2012-12-07
Internet Baseball Awards: National LeagueDave Pease2012-11-14
Punk Hits: Brian ScienceIan Miller2012-10-31
This article requires BP Premium accessWestern Front: Three Giant Draft PicksGeoff Young2012-10-30
Playoff Prospectus: World Series (and Postseason) RecapSam Miller2012-10-29
The Week in Quotes: October 22-28Hudson Belinsky2012-10-29
The Week in Quotes: October 22-28Andrew Koo2012-10-29
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This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: World Series Game Four Preview: Giants at TigersDaniel Rathman2012-10-28
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On the Beat: Rising to Giant OccasionsJohn Perrotto2012-10-25
Wezen-Ball: A Few World Series PredictionsLarry Granillo2012-10-24
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: World Series Preview: Tigers vs. GiantsDerek Carty2012-10-24
This article requires BP Premium accessBizball: 2012 MLB Postseason Shows Money MattersMaury Brown2012-10-23
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Seven Preview: Giants vs. CardinalsDaniel Rathman2012-10-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: The Ones We Got RightDerek Carty2012-10-22
The Week in Quotes: October 15-21Jonah Birenbaum2012-10-22
The Week in Quotes: October 15-21Matthew Rocco2012-10-22
The Week in Quotes: October 15-21Hudson Belinsky2012-10-22
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This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Recap: Giants 5, Cardinals 0Sam Miller2012-10-19
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This article requires BP Premium accessRaising Aces: For Those About to Watch (We Salute You)Doug Thorburn2012-10-05
What You Need to Know: Thursday, October 4Daniel Rathman2012-10-04
Pebble Hunting: The Increasingly Optimistic Outlook for Pitching ProspectsSam Miller2012-09-28
Weekly Planner: Week 26Paul Sporer2012-09-21
The Lineup Card: Six Toolsy Players Who Haven't Put It TogetherBaseball Prospectus2012-09-19
This article requires BP Premium accessRaising Aces: The Man in the Ironic MaskDoug Thorburn2012-09-14
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What You Need to Know: Tuesday, August 28Daniel Rathman2012-08-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessWeekly Planner: Week 22Derek Carty2012-08-24
What You Need to Know: Wednesday, August 22Daniel Rathman2012-08-22
Resident Fantasy Genius: A Summer Success StoryDerek Carty2012-08-16
What You Need to Know: Thursday, August 16Daniel Rathman2012-08-16
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: Same Vogelsong, Second VerseR.J. Anderson2012-08-13
BP Unfiltered: Efficient FelixBen Lindbergh2012-08-04
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessWeekly Planner: Week 19Paul Sporer2012-08-03
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Process: The Mariners' Missed OpportunityBradley Ankrom2012-08-02
What You Need to Know: Friday, July 27Daniel Rathman2012-07-27
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This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Hamels Extends Stay in Philly UPDATEDR.J. Anderson2012-07-25
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for July 23Larry Granillo2012-07-24
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What You Need to Know: Monday, July 23Daniel Rathman2012-07-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Getting Aggressive With 10 Weeks To GoDerek Carty2012-07-23
Value Picks: Starting Pitchers for 7/19/12Paul Sporer2012-07-20
What You Need to Know: Friday, July 20Daniel Rathman2012-07-20
What You Need to Know: Tuesday, July 17Daniel Rathman2012-07-17
The Week in Quotes: July 9-July 15Jonah Birenbaum2012-07-16
The Week in Quotes: July 9-July 15Matthew Rocco2012-07-16
The Week in Quotes: July 9-July 15Hudson Belinsky2012-07-16
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What You Need to Know: Friday, July 13Daniel Rathman2012-07-13
This article requires BP Premium accessAntidote to an Off-Day: Picking the Best Games of the First HalfPaul Sporer2012-07-12
What You Need to Know: Tuesday, July 10Daniel Rathman2012-07-10
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What You Need to Know: Friday, June 29Daniel Rathman2012-06-29
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This article requires BP Premium accessWhat the Contenders Need: NL WestJeff Euston2012-06-27
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat the Contenders Need: NL WestBradley Ankrom2012-06-27
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The Week in Quotes: June 11-17Matthew Rocco2012-06-18
The Week in Quotes: June 11-17Hudson Belinsky2012-06-18
The Week in Quotes: June 11-17Andrew Koo2012-06-18
The Week in Quotes: June 11-17Jonah Birenbaum2012-06-18
What You Need to Know: Monday, June 18Daniel Rathman2012-06-18
Wezen-Ball: Matt Cain, Peanuts & "How Did the Other Team Feel?"Larry Granillo2012-06-15
BP Fantasy Podcast: Episode 8: Very Good, One StarJason Collette2012-06-15
The BP Wayback Machine: Taking a Step Back, Part ThreeKevin Goldstein2012-06-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessWeekly Planner: Week 12Paul Sporer2012-06-15
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for June 13Larry Granillo2012-06-14
BP Unfiltered: Matt Cain's Next StartSam Miller2012-06-14
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BP Unfiltered: Which 14 K Perfect Gamer Faced a Better Lineup?Paul Sporer2012-06-14
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What You Need to Know: Thursday, June 14Daniel Rathman2012-06-14
BP Unfiltered: POLL: How do Dodgers fans feel?Larry Granillo2012-06-14
What You Need to Know: Wednesday, June 13Daniel Rathman2012-06-13
Future Shock Blog: Draft Day Dream CrushingKevin Goldstein2012-06-04
This article requires BP Premium accessPunk Hits: 2012 National League UpfrontsIan Miller2012-05-30
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessWeekly Planner: Week EightPaul Sporer2012-05-18
What You Need to Know: Thursday, May 17Daniel Rathman2012-05-17
What You Need to Know: Friday, May 11Daniel Rathman2012-05-11
Wezen-Ball: Covering an All-Star TeamLarry Granillo2012-05-10
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This article requires BP Premium accessWestern Front: Five Giant ThemesGeoff Young2012-04-24
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What You Need to Know: Thursday, April 19Daniel Rathman2012-04-19
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This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Giants Extend BumgarnerR.J. Anderson2012-04-18
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: First, Third, and DH for 4/16/12Michael Street2012-04-17
BP Unfiltered: Watching Pedro AlvarezR.J. Anderson2012-04-16
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Using Enough AggressionDerek Carty2012-04-12
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: The Best Pitcher in Baseball?Ben Lindbergh2012-04-11
The Lineup Card: 10 Players Who Should Receive ExtensionsBaseball Prospectus2012-04-11
Manufactured Runs: Tragedy of the CommonsColin Wyers2012-04-04
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: 12 Years For Joey VottoBen Lindbergh2012-04-03
Pre-Season Predictions: Staff Picks for 2012Baseball Prospectus2012-03-27
Resident Fantasy Genius: Tout Wars and LABR NL DraftsDerek Carty2012-03-26
Extra Innings Excerpt: What is the Effect of the Increase in Strikeouts?Christina Kahrl2012-03-16
On the Beat: Posey's Giant ComebackJohn Perrotto2012-03-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Tier Rankings: NL Starting PitchersDerek Carty2012-03-13
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: NL Rotation RumbleJay Jaffe2012-03-12
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Process: How Much Do Early Pitcher Promotions Matter?Bradley Ankrom2012-03-12
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The BP First Take: Tuesday, February 21Daniel Rathman2012-02-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: The Unsexy, Underrated Gavin FloydJason Collette2012-02-10
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Cardinals Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2012-02-10
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Guthrie Dealt for Hammel and LindstromR.J. Anderson2012-02-07
Transaction Analysis: AL on the Rise, and Extensions All AroundBen Lindbergh2012-01-26
This article requires BP Premium accessFantasy Beat: Expert ADP ShiftsJason Collette2012-01-24
This article requires BP Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Notes from VegasDerek Carty2012-01-20
Baseball ProGUESTus: 27 Outs, 140 Characters: Fandom in the Time of TwitterMaiya Gessling2012-01-10
This article requires BP Premium accessThe BP First Take: Tuesday, December 27Daniel Rathman2011-12-27
This article requires BP Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: I Cannot Tell a LieDerek Carty2011-12-22
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Keeper Reaper: Starting Pitchers for 12/22/11Mike Petriello2011-12-22
The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed PitchersNate Silver2011-12-15
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Still Sabean After All These YearsJohn Perrotto2011-12-02
Wezen-Ball: Courtesy Votes for the Cy YoungLarry Granillo2011-11-18
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This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The Melk Man Cometh to San FranKevin Goldstein2011-11-07
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This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: San Francisco GiantsKevin Goldstein2011-09-27
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: San Francisco GiantsBen Lindbergh2011-09-27
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 19Larry Granillo2011-09-20
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Divide and Conquer, NL East: Playoff Matchups Shaping UpMichael Jong2011-08-22
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This article requires BP Premium accessExpanded Horizons: The Mystery of Jered WeaverTommy Bennett2011-07-27
On the Beat: Invasion of the Young ArmsJohn Perrotto2011-07-15
Painting the Black: Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 2R.J. Anderson2011-07-14
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Resetting the Races, National LeagueJay Jaffe2011-07-14
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: HR/FB, SIERA, and LuckDerek Carty2011-06-06
Prospectus Hit and Run: Buster Posey BustedJay Jaffe2011-05-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #8Craig Brown2011-05-20
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This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Get Your PhilsTommy Bennett2011-04-12
BP Unfiltered: For Amusement Only 4/9John Perrotto2011-04-09
Transaction Analysis: Second-Sack Stopgaps, and Other Opening Day ShufflesBen Lindbergh2011-04-04
BP Unfiltered: For Amusement Only 4/2John Perrotto2011-04-02
Pre-Season Predictions: Staff Picks for 2011Baseball Prospectus2011-03-31
Team Injury Projection: San Francisco GiantsCorey Dawkins2011-03-31
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This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: The Sunny Side of SpringJohn Perrotto2011-03-23
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Wezen-Ball: Happy Pi (π) Day!Larry Granillo2011-03-14
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: NL Starting Pitcher RankingsMarc Normandin2011-02-28
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Fantasy Beat: BP Scoresheet Early Draft PrepRob McQuown2011-02-07
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Analyze This: How the Giants Were Acquired, Part IIJesse Behr2010-10-30
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World Series Prospectus: World Series PreviewChristina Kahrl2010-10-26
Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Weekend ProjectionColin Wyers2010-10-23
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One-Hoppers: Giants and Braves RostersChristina Kahrl2010-10-07
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Prospectus Hit List: NL: Getting SortedJay Jaffe2010-09-23
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #25Craig Brown2010-09-17
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On the Beat: Falling Out of FirstJohn Perrotto2010-09-08
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This article requires BP Premium accessMid-season Prescriptions: NL WestTommy Bennett2010-07-15
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This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: NL: Tapping Into the V-EnergyJay Jaffe2010-06-10
One-Hoppers: Night of the Pitcher? (and a Large Marlin Lands)Ben Lindbergh2010-06-09
BP Unfiltered: The Paper Trail of June 9John Perrotto2010-06-09
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Monday UpdateJohn Perrotto2010-06-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #10Craig Brown2010-06-04
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Watch Your Head!: New Technology Can Prevent ConcussionsMark Smith2010-05-28
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One-Hoppers: Opening Day PayrollsJay Jaffe2010-04-08
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-06-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)What pitchers would you be targeting as buys/sells right now?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
The buys: Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Doug Fister
The sells: Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, Garrett Richards (Doug Thorburn)
2014-05-29 19:30:00 (link to chat)What do you think about Matt Cain as a buy low in a 14 team mixed? I feel like he's almost a forgotten man.
(Jake from Kalamazoo)
If you can buy very low, yes, but Cain isn't filling me with confidence this year. Which sucks, because I grabbed him in a ton of drafts this preseason. (Ben Carsley)
2014-05-28 14:15:00 (link to chat)What do you make of Matt Cain at this point in his career? I want to believe he's better than his numbers from the last season and a half.
(Jake from Kalamazoo)
I don't think there's any reason to worry much about Cain, as long as he can stay away from sandwiches. His peripherals were fine last year (and even his surface stats were fantastic in the second half), and it's not like he's been that bad or lost stuff this season. The rise in HR/FB rate makes you wonder whether his command has slipped, but it's still a fairly small sample, given how long that takes to stabilize. He's okay. He's Cain. (Ben Lindbergh)
2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)What's your take on Matt Cain? SSS blip, or is there something to worry about mechanically?
(ravenight from Boston)
His velo is fine and his baseline mechanics look solid. Like most struggling pitchers, Cain's issues boil down to timing. He has had bouts of alternating over- and under-rotation that has kept him from commanding the strike zone with his usual aplomb, and though he has a very slow delivery that sometimes opens a pitcher up to such timing issues, I expect Cain to get back on track in short order. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-04-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Did Matt Cain just get "Coorsed" yesterday, or is there a bigger issue we should worry about?
(Shawn from Cubicle)
He's been AWFUL there (Paul Sporer)
2014-04-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Matt Cain right now? Would you start him tonight against the Padres?
(mattstupp from NYC)
I'd start any pitcher in Petco. That said, I'm not hugely big on Cain. He's always out-performed his peripherals and pitchers who do that consistently are probably better than their peripheral numbers, but they also always scare me just the same. I'm always waiting for that second shoe to drop. We're super early into the season (I know I've said that a million times so far but we are!) so I'm not putting much stock in any numbers right now, but Cain was a bit worrisome to me before the season started so he's a bit worrisome to me right now. (Matthew Kory)
2014-03-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think about Matt Cain as a bounce back pitcher this year?
(Corwin from Atlanta)
Sure, I can climb aboard the Cain Train. His peripherals last season were essentially the same as before. The only difference was that for once, he didn't outperform them. I expect he'll go back to defying FIP to some extent. (Ben Lindbergh)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)How do you feel about Matt Cain's chances to bounce back from an off-year?
(gweedoh565 from Ann Arbor)
I'd bet a a good bit on it. He rebounded in-season. (Paul Sporer)
2014-01-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you see in Lucas Sims that others don't yet see? Do you suppose he's got a mid-2016 ETA?
(DH from Pittsburgh)
Not sure. His profile seems pretty clear to me: easy 91-95 FB with movement; hammer CB; feel for above-average CH; smooth delivery; athletic. Matt Cain isn't a far off comp. I think he has a chance to be very good. (Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects)
2014-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)20-team dynasty league. Two of the top three teams about to make a trade: Team A is younger, but lacks enough impact pitching to win a title. Team B is creeping up there in age and injury. Assuming both offenses are stacked and the pitching for both is above average or better, Team A sends Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Cain, and 1-1 pick (aka Byron Buxton) for Team B's Hunter Pence, Yu Darvish, 1-3 pick, and Dylan Bundy... fair trade?
(AJ from Phoenix)
Yeah, that's fair. I prefer Team B's side, but it's fair. (Craig Goldstein)
2013-08-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Kyle Crick? Does he have #2-3 potential? Are the Matt Cain comparisons legit or is it just because they are in same system.
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Just because they're in the same system. Crick does have that kind of potential, but they're really not all that similar as pitchers. Reminds me of how every Braves LHP prospect was compared to Tom Glavine for awhile. (Jason Cole)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Among others, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, and CC Sabathia are #1's having more mortal 2013 seasons. Fluky seasons, or reasons to be concerned?
(Sara from Tacoma)
Add Matt Cain to this list also, and yes I would be very concerned. The teams made major investments in these pitchers and the lack of performance is always a reason to be concerned. (Zach Mortimer)
2013-08-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)What happened to the Giants pitchers this year? is the just the volatility of pitchers or is Matt Cain really this bad? Also, how does Vogelsong get by with such fringy stuff?
(Daryl from LA)
I'm a little surprised by Cain's drop, but the rest is not too surprising. Vogelsong doesn't get by all that much, does he? Sometimes those guys can have a run, but the margin for error is small. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-07-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Matt Cain doing anything differently right now? Because he's getting shellacked.
(drmorris from SF)
When Cain has been off it has mostly been due to mistimed pitches that missed their intended locations. As a pitcher who relies on pitching on the edges, he has been getting hammered when he doesn't get the desired action on the slider or change-up.

He was really struggling to harness his slider against the Dodgers, missing low and/or to the arm-side most of the time; but Cain was also elevating his fastball, putting him in vulnerable positions when he got behind in the count. He threw 19 fastballs against LA that were either over the plate or very close to it, and 17 of those pitches ended up in the upper-half of the zone. Of the 15 sliders that he threw, just five finished to the arm-side of the middle of the zone. I think that he will be fine, and just needs to fine tune his timing. I wrote about it here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21002

On the jukebox: Sublime, "40 oz to Freedom" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-06-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)20-team dynasty. In a vaccuum: Dylan Bundy, Anthony Rendon, and top 3 pick (rd 1) in prospect draft for Matt Cain and bottom 3 pick in prospecf draft (rd 1)?
(Dr. Mike from Milwaukee)
I think Matt Cain will eventually bounce back, but would still prefer the Bundy/Rendon/top 3 side of that deal. (Daniel Rathman)
2013-05-22 18:00:00 (link to chat)What are your favorite "buy-low" NL SP's? My league really only focuses in IP and RA, so things like a good defense behind a pitcher and lots of games in pitchers' parks against bad offenses add value. Thanks!
(DF from Wilmington, NC)
It was McCarthy and Vogelsong but one is now hot and one is now broken. I still like Marco Estrada and I'd test the waters on the guys who own Matt Cain and Ian Kennedy (Jason Collette)
2013-05-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)What happened to Matt Cain?
(Scott Crow from Sacramento, CA)
Cain's K and BB rates are right in line with career marks, but his H rate is up and his HR rate has doubled. He has never given up more than 0.9 HR per 9 innings, but he has a rate of 1.9 this season. Cain has already given up as many homers (9) as he did in ALL of 2011 (221 IP). He is also giving up way more hits than in the past, and from what I have seen it comes down to pitch command (vs control). Cain is just barely missing his targets, but it's enough to allow his pitches to catch too much plate. Cain relies on outstanding command of his four-pitch mix, and though he was off for much of April, based on his last start I would say that Cain is refining his timing patterns and nearing his previous levels of function. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-04-30 12:00:00 (link to chat)Has anyone done a deep dive into Cole Hamels pitch f/x info to see if there is something wrong/different? 6 walks is very not Hamelsey.
(geneclaude from KC)
Not that I've seen.

Barely related plug: Grant Brisbee and Chris Quick, of McCovey Chronicles and Bay City Ball, did nice breakdowns of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum's command woes last week. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-04-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you make of the early season performances by Matt Cain, Gio Gonzalez, and Dan Haren?
(Garcia from Ft. Worth)
Haren worries me the most of the three because some of it had already been documented heading into the season. Maybe it's just confirmation bias that I didn't expect him to be good and I expected the others to, but even with what seems to be a small return of his velocity, I'm concerned because of recent body of work. (Zachary Levine)
2013-02-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm in a 5x5 12 team keeper league (keep 7). Keepers are Holliday, cliff lee, Chris sale, Aramis Ramirez, Billy Butler, Jose Bautista and Allen Craig. Been offered a trade: Craig for Matt Cain. Should I accept and why?
(Fletch from Tierra Del Fuego)
With the caveat that fantasy is absolutely not my thing, I would do that deal for sure. You should be able to replace Craig's offense at 1B fairly easily, and Cain is an elite starter who will almost certainly give you 220 innings a year for the next couple of seasons. So yeah, pull the trigger! (Ian Miller)
2012-10-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)So this was a pretty serious year for the pitcher, no? What was your favorite dominant pitching performance from the year? And do you think next season will be similar? (not in # of no-hitters, mind you, but in the relative success of defense over offense)
(john from chicago)
We certainly saw a lot of remarkable pitching feats this year. I'm biased, as a Giants fan, but my two favorites were probably Matt Cain's perfect game on June 13 (which, by the way, I didn't see live because I was on a flight to Europe) and the duel between Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw on Aug. 20. Kris Medlen's outing against the Nationals a few weeks ago was also very fun to watch.

I don't think there are any obvious reasons to expect significant changes between 2012 and 2013, so I expect that we'll see a lot of the same things, especially as more and more teams adopt the aggressive defensive shifts pioneered by the Rays and Brewers. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-05-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)There was a Peter Gammons tweet from a year or two ago quoting a scout about how Matt Cain went from having terrible mechanics as a rookie to great mechanics now. Did you seen Cain as a rookie and was that a fair assessment?
(Josh G from Stockton, CA)
I wouldn't call Cain's rookie mechanics "terrible," but he has certainly made improvements during his time in SF. The timing consistency is the biggest change (I smell a theme brewing), but he has also improved his momentum, posture, and pitch selection. He was over-reliant on the fastball when he first came up, but now el cambio is the most feared pitch in his arsenal (Doug Thorburn)
2012-05-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Johnny Cueto: mirage or turning into an ace? At what point do we have to assume he's just an outlier than can consistently outperform his projections?
(Bubs from Baltimore)
The longer he does it, the more likely it is to be real. (Man, that was an obvious sentence.) He hasn't done it long enough for me to believe. Cueto isn't Matt Cain. For the first three seasons of his career, he was an average-BABIP guy. For the last two seasons (really just one season's worth of innings), he's been a low-BABIP guy. It's possible that he's doing something differently to depress BABIP (I'd have to investigate), but I'd bet on regression. And if/when the regression comes, he won't have the strikeout rate to sustain an elite ERA.

Come to think of it, Bubs, this question might be best answered by one of your own quotes: "Tomorrow, man. What kind of dope fiend be talking about tomorrow? Tomorrow ain't shit. Today, Johnny, today." Season three of The Wire was actually about Johnny Cueto. (Ben Lindbergh)
2012-04-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)Jordan Zimmermann has pitched like an ace the last two seasons, but has a losing record over that time, because the Nationals simply don't hit when he pitches. It seems that some pitchers are doomed to poor run support. Do you know of any cases in which particular pitchers suffered eerily poor run support over significant stretches of their careers? I don't mean pitchers who labored for terrible teams, but ones that got poor support even if their colleagues did not.
(HalfStreet from Fairfax VA)
The first name that comes to mind is Matt Cain, who -- after being denied the win in last night's duel -- remains just 70-73 for his career.

Ted Lilly, in recent years, hasn't had a whole lot of support. He had the fourth-fewest runs scored behind him in 2009 and the third-fewest in 2010.

And, if we're talking about a single season, Ben Sheets in 2004 is in a league of his own. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-03-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Predictions (in terms of both performance and contract situations) for Matt Cain and Cole Hamels? Feel like either could be their team's best starter.
(Carlo from SF)
Hamels better than Cain this year, neither his team's best starter or second-best starter this year, Hamels hits free agency but re-signs with the Phillies for the same basic deal Halladay has, Cain hits free agency and signs with St. Louis for 5/$85 million. (Sam Miller)
2012-03-08 15:00:00 (link to chat)If you were forced to choose between the two, would you rather have Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum?
(Ed from Foxboro)
I'm assuming you're asking which of the two, if one had to go, I'd want the Giants to sign to a long-term deal. The answer to that is Cain. I have a lot more faith in Cain's ability to provide value commensurate with his salaries over a 5-6 year deal than Lincecum's, and Cain's style is a perfect fit for AT&T. Plus, the country music fan in me would miss Cain's entrance songs, which are annually my favorite on the team. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-03-08 15:00:00 (link to chat)Is this the year that Matt Cain overtakes Tim Lincecum as the Giants ace in the rotation?
(Tim from San Francisco)
This is the year that Madison Bumgarner overtakes both of them. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-02-02 15:00:00 (link to chat)Cory, the list of 12 is up (http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/ for those not in the know... shame on you!)and perennial underperformer Brandon Morrow is up there. What's your opinion on guys that consistently underperform their xFIP? Is Ricky Nolasco an anonomly or is there some skill defecit we're missing?
(mattseward from Cardiff, UK)
This is a good area where "scouting" and observation can complement stats and analytics. My guess is that guys like this struggle with runners on base, so even though they have good pure stuff (as shown in the K/BB rates), they're more susceptible to big innings. This is certainly true of Nolasco... take out his four worst starts last year and he has what, a 3.25 ERA? On the other hand, you have guys like Matt Cain who consistently outperform their xFIP, xERA, whatever... so after 5-6 years of that we must conclude there is some skill at work there that guys like Nolasco and Morrow haven't developed yet. (Cory Schwartz)
2012-01-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)With Texas possibly offering Josh Hamilton an extension, wouldn't they be better off spending that money on Matt Cain, Cole Hamels or Zack Grienke? Assuming Mike Young and Hamilton are out of the 2013 picture, they can still fill an OF spot with Victorino, DYoung, or Melky. Of course, #TheLegend can probably play RF better than anyone on the roster.
(Joe Random from In line at Shake Shack)
I wouldn't offer Hamilton an extension. I would let him walk and use those resources elsewhere. (Jason Parks)
2011-06-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have a very strong pitching staff in a long term keeper Strat-O-Matic 16 team league and I only need five starters. Which five of these would you keep? Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, CJ Wilson, Jordan Zimmermann, Clayton Kershaw, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, and Chris Narveson. Keep in mind I can keep them forever.
(jhardman from Apex, NC)
Lincecum, Kershaw, Greinke, and Cain seem like obvious choices. I'd probably go with Beckett for the last spot, though Wilson might be safer, given Beckett's age and injury history. (Ben Lindbergh)
2011-05-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you have a pet theory on Matt Cain and his consistent BABIP sorcery?
(drmorris from San Fran)
My pet theory on Cain is that it's a lot of things working together, both on the BABIP and HR/FB fronts.

As an aside, and returning to an earlier question, one of the reason I'm not wild about the current BABIP and HR/FB approaches that are in sabermetric vogue is that I like to view HR as part of the spectrum of normal contact. I don't like to separate them out and try to talk about things in two buckets. If batters hit the ball hard and pull it, some of them are going to go out of the yard.

Okay, returning to Cain. Some of it's ballpark. Some of it's that he doesn't allow batters to pull the ball as much as other pitchers do. Some of it's that contact against him is legitimately weaker. Some of it is the defense behind him. Maybe I'm leaving something out. Probably there are things that we don't understand, too, of course. (Mike Fast)
2011-03-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)As the flip to BABIP, Matt Cain always seems to do well with terrible secondary stats. Do you think he will eventually regress to where the stats say he will be or will he keep putting up a statistically-improbably low ERA?
(mef from Brooklyn, NY)
Very true, he's posted an ERA lower than his xERA every year he's been in the rotation, and by quite a bit over the past two seasons, so you have to accept at some point that there is some greater skill in play there. Looking at his rate stats and some of the defenses he's had behind him it's hard to see what that might be, but this is a great area of study for the Pitch-f/x world... between deception, pitch selection and sequencing, location, and perhaps other factors, the answer must be in there somewhere! (Cory Schwartz)
2010-11-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller ceiling is ___________? In terms of pitching prospects, I would rather have __________ over him?
(Ben254 from St. Louis)
No. 2 starter, kind of a Matt Cain type?; very few. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-09-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Please fill in the blank. This is the best NL Rookie Class since ________ (blank). Thanks! Bobby
(Bobby from New York)
Are we going strictly by league? Because the 2007 class had Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Hamilton among hitters, Tim Lincecum and Joakim Soria among pitchers. 2006 had Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Andre Ethier, Prince Fielder, Ian Kinsler, Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon (who used to not suck), Jonathan Broxton (ditto)...

There's a lot to be excited about with this year's rookie class (Posey, Heyward, Santana, Stanton) but I'm in no rush to appoint them the best class of the past five years until I see much more. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Keeper league - would you rather have Josh Johnson & Matt Cain or Strasburg & Latos?
(Stoney18 from Lincoln NE)
Strasburg/Latos. I love Josh Johnson, but that's not even close for me. (Marc Normandin)
2009-10-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Matt Cain's long-term future?
(chicago from il)
RIght around a #2 starter, very durable, K/9 around 7.0, ERAs in the 3.50-3.85 range. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-07-24 16:30:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the your last unfiltered spot - it really helped clarify some thing for me. My question is in reference to a potential sim league (Diamond Mind) transaction but am curious as to your thoughts for the sake of MLB. Howie Kendrick for Jon Sanchez. Who gets the better end of this deal for the rest of the year? Rest of the player's careers?
(JM from Tucson)
Let me ask you this... if Sanchez didn't throw a no-hitter, would there be this hype? Bud Smith and Anibal Sanchez have also thrown no-hitters. Sanchez has talent but I really do fear his career takes the Oliver Perez route instead of the Matt Cain route. I'd need to know more about the league, like who you have in the infield and your staff but I do want to impart not to overrate Sanchez because he threw a no-hitter. (Eric Seidman)
2009-06-05 15:30:00 (link to chat)Eric, on your IMDB page it says you haven't missed a 76ers game in years. Might we see you write for Basketball Prospectus?
(Jay from SD)
One of my goals for 2009 was to get more in tune with advanced basketball analysis. It hasn't happened yet for lack of time but I think it would be fun to compare my scouting eyes from watching so much over the years to what the numbers say. With baseball, I tend to only watch the Phillies, Greg Maddux, Matt Cain, and the 5 innings of Javier Vazquez before he implodes. With the NBA, I could watch a Grizzlies-Wizards game and be entertained. (Eric Seidman)
2009-02-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Will, I look at Matt Cain and say "he's pitched 200+ innings 3 years in a row. This trend shows that he'll likely do the same this year." You look at him and say "his heavy workload on a young arm is more likely breaking it down, rather than proving he's capable." You're clearly right, but I have a hard time thinking I'm completely off base.
(ericmilburn from San Francisco)
I understand why you think that, but over and over we see that the mileage put on an arm before age 24-25 is, no matter how "babied", damaging in the long and short term. Maybe he's the freak that can handle it, but I'm talking about probabilities not certainties. Carlos Zambrano is the comp that comes to mind here, or Jeremy Bonderman. With him and every good young pitcher, I hope I'm wrong. (Will Carroll)
2009-02-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)I can pretty much take what you just said about Matt Cain, apply that to Felix Hernandez and feel bad about my team's future, huh? Anything special about the fact that Felix averages just under 100 pitches per start to brighten my day?
(philosofool from Athens)
Or any young pitcher, so don't feel like I'm singling you out. In fact, Mr. Fool, you had a great comment about regression vs Verducci that has me working on a study, so please email me. (Will Carroll)
2009-01-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)I can't decide if Matt Cain is going to end up a #1, 2 or 3. What do you see for him in '09 and beyond?
(ericmilburn from San Francisco)
I think Cain is a great #2 capable of putting up occasional #1 performances. The walk rate, even when you take out the IBB, is a little high for my liking if we're ranking him like this. For 2009 and beyond, a lot more of 2007-2008, which is nothing to complain about. He tends to be one of those people that someone in your league inevitably grabs way too soon though, thinking this is the year he whiffs 10 guys per nine all of a sudden. (Marc Normandin)
2008-12-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)My initial reaction to giving a player an opt-out clause (like Burnett, A-Rod, and CC) is that they were horrible decisions by the club. But upon further consideration, I actually like them in many cases. I think the most likely scenario is that CC stays relatively healthy and productive for the first 3 years of his deal. This probably leads him to opting out, which allows the Yankees to avoid the risker portion of the contract. Really, the only scenarios I can think of where it is less desireable than the straight 7-year contract is (1) the Burnett Scenario where he is not really healthy the first couple years, but opts out after a dominant 3rd year OR (2) he stays productive all 7 years, but opts out after 3 years and the Yankees miss 4 years of below-market production from an elite pitcher. But really, scenario #1 isn't that bad, particularly if the guy keeps getting injured (Toronto will probably be thrilled he opted out in a year). And to me, scenario #2 is pretty unlikely. If I'm the Yankees, I'm praying he opts out so I can go after Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, or Ervin Santana in 3 years for a similar deal. Am I crazy or missing something here?
(mymrbig from New Orleans)
Joe Sheehan made largely this argument in Vegas. Not sure if he's written it, though I think he has. I'm looking at it as a 3 year contract with a 90 million buck insurance policy on it for Sabathia, because he only stays if things have gone wrong. So yes, I agree with you, Big. (Will Carroll)
2008-12-04 13:30:00 (link to chat)Why are the Twins so willing to unload Delmon Young after only one season? Follow-up: what's the trade value for him--someone like Homer Bailey, or more like Matt Cain (or Matt Garza)?
(Scott from Detroit)
Argh. Got a call and lost my answer to this...his value is between them, but if the Twins trade for a pitcher, Smith should be fired. Sand to the beach, and all that. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-10-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)So, if your Doug Melvin, are you trading JJ? Moving him to 2B and Weeks to Center? Essentially, the question is this: If you're Dough Melvin, what trades and positional moves are you making for the Brewers this winter?
(HRFastness from MKE)
I'd think about moving Hardy to 2B or 3B to accommodate Escobar (or maybe he moves, I don't know without talking to somebody more knowledgeable about his defense), I'd think about moving Weeks to CF or another team.

I think Prince Fielder may be a more tradable/replaceable commodity than Hardy. I know one of the big media wags proposed a Fielder/Matt Cain swap, which makes sense given the Brewers' need for pitching in a post-Sheets, post-Sabathia world. The Brewers would hear about it from their fans, though. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-10-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)seems like a lot of analysts have come around on the Giants longterm outlook after this season... not following them closely what are the reasons this doomed franchise now seems to have some legit upside?
(Jordan from LA)
The potential for a ridiculous homegrown rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Alderson, Sanchez and Sosa in about 18 months. The franchise isn't much, but it has shown the ability to draft, and even develop, pitchers. That group is why you hear a lot of Matt Cain trade rumors. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-05-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)Does Steve Philips make you chuckle? He recently suggested in an ESPN article that the Reds should trade Dunn for Matt Cain and Jared Burton and Affeldt for Phil Hughes.
(jdtk99 from Iowa)
I'd get a heartier laugh out of the man if he was in a front office instead of a studio; I suspect "Studio Transaction Analysis" would make for a really pointless exercise. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-03-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Christina, here's a chance to say something snarky about the Giants: go.
(Chomsky from Brooklyn)
This morning, I noted in conversation that they'll suck with aplomb, but to be fair, they won't be entirely dull. I don't know where their season ticket sales are, but I'd want to see what Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Jonathan Sanchez can do. The pity is that lineup, which will be bad enough to get people jonesing for Bob Brenly comeback. (Christina Kahrl)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Matt Cain has thrown 23,367 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (93mph), also mixing in a Slider (87mph), Change (86mph), Sinker (92mph) and Curve (78mph). He also rarely throws a Cutter (92mph).