Biographical

Portrait of John Axford

John Axford PPirates

Pirates Player Cards | Pirates Team Audit | Pirates Depth Chart

2014 Rest-of-Season Projections (seasonal age 31)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
0.3 3.11 1.20 0 0 0 0 0.0
Birth Date4-1-1983
Height6' 5"
Weight220 lbs
Age31 years, 6 months, 21 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
1.52010
1.62011
0.72012
0.02013
-0.32014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2009 MIL 26 7 0 7.7 0.0 7.7 0 0 1 0 0 0 34 5 3 3 0 6 6 5 0 9 3.52 3.06 4.16 1.0 0.1
2010 MIL 27 50 0 58.0 0.0 58.0 8 2 24 3 0 0 238 42 17 16 1 60 27 24 1 76 2.48 2.16 2.37 14.4 1.5
2011 MIL 28 74 0 73.7 0.0 73.7 2 2 46 2 0 0 305 59 19 16 4 78 25 24 0 86 1.95 2.38 2.96 14.7 1.6
2012 MIL 29 75 0 69.3 0.0 69.3 5 8 35 10 0 0 310 61 42 36 10 103 39 37 2 93 4.67 4.10 3.91 7.3 0.7
2013 MIL 30 62 0 54.7 0.0 54.7 6 7 0 7 0 0 245 62 29 27 10 100 23 20 1 54 4.45 4.74 5.49 -2.4 -0.3
2013 SLN 30 13 0 10.3 0.0 10.3 1 0 0 1 0 0 44 11 3 2 0 13 3 3 1 11 1.74 2.05 2.14 2.7 0.3
2014 CLE 31 49 0 43.7 0.0 43.7 2 3 10 3 0 0 196 34 21 19 6 58 30 27 1 51 3.92 4.74 5.65 -3.7 -0.4
2014 PIT 31 13 0 11.0 0.0 11.0 0 1 0 0 0 0 47 9 5 5 0 12 6 6 1 12 4.09 2.83 3.21 1.3 0.1
Career3430328.30.0328.32423116260014192831391243143015914673923.403.433.8535.23.7

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2007 CSC A 13 5 26.7 6.83 48 .304 .252 .327 .372 .253 .321 94 -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -0.1
2007 STA A- 8 0 24.3 4.92 81 .193 .252 .336 .361 .261 .232 93 -0.4 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0
2007 TAM A+ 5 0 11.3 6.70 54 .234 .250 .314 .353 .243 .190 101 -1.3 -0.1 -1.3 -0.1
2007 SWB AAA 1 0 0.7 0.04 199 .470 .285 .355 .384 .273 .667 89 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.1
2008 BRV A+ 26 14 95.0 5.53 74 .283 .250 .322 .366 .250 .310 97 -2.1 -0.2 -2.1 -0.2
2009 MIL MLB 7 0 7.7 4.16 112 .195 .260 .335 .428 .266 .263 104 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1
2009 BRV A+ 19 0 27.7 2.13 146 .180 .243 .308 .357 .242 .275 98 8.0 0.8 8.0 0.8
2009 HUN AA 4 0 7.7 4.53 82 .260 .256 .326 .425 .281 .316 90 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 -0.0
2009 NAS AAA 22 0 33.0 4.58 94 .242 .271 .334 .412 .274 .263 89 2.2 0.2 1.8 0.3
2010 MIL MLB 50 0 58.0 2.37 144 .219 .261 .329 .405 .269 .308 96 14.4 1.5 14.4 1.5
2010 NAS AAA 12 0 13.3 1.85 166 .223 .284 .351 .451 .269 .412 103 6.8 0.6 6.8 0.6
2011 MIL MLB 74 0 73.7 2.96 132 .215 .256 .320 .402 .263 .289 105 14.7 1.6 14.7 1.6
2012 MIL MLB 75 0 69.3 3.91 117 .262 .257 .322 .408 .263 .307 109 7.5 0.8 7.3 0.7
2013 MIL MLB 62 0 54.7 5.49 73 .278 .251 .316 .387 .257 .331 107 -2.4 -0.3 -2.4 -0.3
2013 SLN MLB 13 0 10.3 2.14 151 .225 .248 .298 .385 .244 .379 108 2.7 0.3 2.7 0.3
2013 CAN int 2 0 1.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2014 CLE MLB 49 0 43.7 5.65 65 .273 .254 .314 .393 .260 .259 101 -3.7 -0.4 -3.7 -0.4
2014 PIT MLB 13 0 11.0 3.21 119 .256 .228 .292 .356 .245 .321 99 1.3 0.1 1.3 0.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2007 TAM A+ 0 0 2 5 0 11.3 6 7 15 2 30% .190 4.8 5.6 1.6 11.9 1.15 2.39 -1.3 -0.1
2007 SWB AAA 0 0 0 1 0 0.7 2 1 1 0 0% .667 25.7 12.9 0.0 12.9 4.29 12.86 0.6 0.1
2007 CSC A 0 3 0 13 5 26.7 29 22 21 2 50% .321 9.8 7.4 0.7 7.1 1.91 4.38 -0.8 -0.1
2007 STA A- 1 1 2 8 0 24.3 13 15 30 0 46% .232 4.8 5.6 0.0 11.1 1.15 2.22 -0.4 -0.0
2008 BRV A+ 5 10 0 26 14 95.0 86 73 89 5 47% .310 8.1 6.9 0.5 8.4 1.67 4.55 -2.1 -0.2
2009 BRV A+ 4 1 0 19 0 27.7 14 16 43 0 45% .275 4.5 5.2 0.0 14.0 1.08 1.62 8.0 0.8
2009 MIL MLB 0 0 1 7 0 7.7 5 6 9 0 32% .263 5.9 7.0 0.0 10.6 1.43 3.52 1.0 0.1
2009 HUN AA 0 0 1 4 0 7.7 7 3 9 1 20% .316 8.2 3.5 1.2 10.5 1.30 3.51 -0.1 -0.0
2009 NAS AAA 5 0 0 22 0 33.0 23 19 37 2 54% .263 6.3 5.2 0.5 10.1 1.27 3.55 1.8 0.3
2010 NAS AAA 3 2 2 12 0 13.3 14 5 19 0 53% .412 9.5 3.4 0.0 12.9 1.43 2.03 6.8 0.6
2010 MIL MLB 8 2 24 50 0 58.0 42 27 76 1 50% .308 6.5 4.2 0.2 11.8 1.19 2.48 14.4 1.5
2011 MIL MLB 2 2 46 74 0 73.7 59 25 86 4 50% .289 7.2 3.1 0.5 10.5 1.14 1.95 14.7 1.6
2012 MIL MLB 5 8 35 75 0 69.3 61 39 93 10 48% .307 7.9 5.1 1.3 12.1 1.44 4.67 7.3 0.7
2013 MIL MLB 6 7 0 62 0 54.7 62 23 54 10 46% .331 10.2 3.8 1.6 8.9 1.55 4.45 -2.4 -0.3
2013 SLN MLB 1 0 0 13 0 10.3 11 3 11 0 55% .379 9.6 2.6 0.0 9.6 1.35 1.74 2.7 0.3
2013 CAN int 0 0 0 2 0 1.7 2 0 2 0 0% .400 10.8 0.0 0.0 10.8 1.20 5.40 0.0 0.0
2014 PIT MLB 0 1 0 13 0 11.0 9 6 12 0 54% .321 7.4 4.9 0.0 9.8 1.36 4.09 1.3 0.1
2014 CLE MLB 2 3 10 49 0 43.7 34 30 51 6 55% .259 7.0 6.2 1.2 10.5 1.47 3.92 -3.7 -0.4

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2009 134 0.4925 0.4179 0.7857 0.6364 0.2059 0.7857 0.7857 0.2143
2010 958 0.4676 0.4353 0.7218 0.5938 0.2961 0.8496 0.4967 0.2782
2011 1238 0.5129 0.4280 0.7732 0.5874 0.2587 0.8525 0.5833 0.2268
2012 1397 0.4653 0.4381 0.7696 0.6292 0.2718 0.8606 0.5862 0.2288
2013 1166 0.4691 0.4318 0.7654 0.6161 0.2682 0.8694 0.5542 0.2346
2014 1031 0.4704 0.3996 0.7500 0.6124 0.2106 0.8249 0.5565 0.2500
Career59240.47790.42710.75870.60940.26010.8510.56420.2409

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2011-02-16 2011-03-04 Camp 16 0 General Medical Gastrointestinal Food Poisoning -
2003-04-15 2003-04-15 Coll 0 0 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery - Date Is Approximate - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 CLE $4,500,000
2013 MIL $5,000,000
2012 MIL $525,000
2011 MIL $442,500
YearsDescriptionSalary
3 yrPrevious$5,967,500
2011Current$4,500,000
4 yrPvs + Cur$10,467,500
4 yrTotal$10,467,500

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
3 y 170 dDan Horwits1 year/$4.5M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$4.5M (2014). Signed by Cleveland as a free agent 12/16/13. Performance bonuses: $0.25M for 38 games finished. $0.3M each for 43, 48, 53, 58, 63 GF. Claimed by Pittsburgh off waivers from Cleveland 8/14/14.
  • 1 year/$5M (2013). Re-signed by Milwaukee 1/18/13 (avoided arbitration). Performance bonuses. Acquired by St. Louis in trade from Milwaukee 8/30/13. Non-tendered by St. Louis 12/2/13.
  • 1 year/$0.525M (2012). Renewed by Milwaukee 3/2/12.
  • 1 year/$0.4255M (2011). Re-signed by Milwaukee 3/1/11.
  • 1 year (2010). Re-signed by Milwaukee 2/23/10.
  • 1 year (2009). Contract purchased by Milwaukee 9/7/09.
  • 1 year (2008). Signed by Milwaukee as a free agent (minor-league contract).
  • Signed by NY Yankees 2007 as an amateur free agent.
  • Drafted by Cincinnati 2005 (42-1,259) (Notre Dame). Did not sign.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 0 0 32 0 0 86.7 60 30 102 6 .262 1.03 2.18 2.37 0.0 0.0
80o 0 0 29 0 0 80.3 60 30 95 6 .276 1.11 2.56 2.79 0.0 0.0
70o 0 0 28 0 0 75.8 60 29 89 6 .287 1.18 2.84 3.09 0.0 0.0
60o 0 0 26 0 0 72.0 59 29 85 6 .296 1.23 3.09 3.35 0.0 0.0
50o 0 0 25 0 0 68.5 59 29 81 6 .305 1.28 3.31 3.6 0.0 0.0
40o 0 0 24 0 0 65.1 58 29 77 6 .313 1.33 3.55 3.86 0.0 0.0
30o 0 0 22 0 0 61.5 57 28 72 6 .322 1.39 3.80 4.13 0.0 0.0
20o 0 0 21 0 0 57.4 56 28 68 6 .333 1.46 4.10 4.46 0.0 0.0
10o 0 0 19 0 0 51.9 54 27 61 6 .348 1.56 4.53 4.92 0.0 0.0
Weighted Mean00250068.05828806.3031.273.283.570.00.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
19% 36% 27% 18% 82%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201532211245047422152445.3051.333.533.838.04.09.90.80.6
201633211142045391948445.2971.303.573.887.93.89.70.80.6
201734211140042371847445.3041.313.513.827.93.910.10.90.6
201835211140042381647445.3031.293.473.778.13.410.10.90.6
20193621933035321538345.3141.363.774.108.33.99.90.80.3
20203721832033311436345.3111.353.794.118.43.89.70.80.3
20213821831033311335345.3111.333.774.098.53.59.50.80.3
20223921830032301334345.3121.343.804.138.43.79.60.80.3
20234021831033311334345.3111.333.844.178.53.59.30.80.3

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
21.319.214.611.213.37.579.6

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 80)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 94 Will Ohman 2009 5.84
2 94 Jose Veras 2012 3.90
3 91 Michael Wuertz 2010 4.76
4 90 Jason Motte 2013 0.00 DNP
5 90 Fernando Rodney 2008 4.91
6 87 Heath Bell 2009 2.71
7 87 Frank Francisco 2011 3.73
8 86 Brian Fuentes 2007 3.82
9 85 J.J. Putz 2008 3.88
10 85 Santiago Casilla 2012 3.41
11 85 Grant Balfour 2009 5.21
12 84 Jose Valverde 2009 2.50
13 84 George Sherrill 2008 4.72
14 84 Michael Gonzalez 2009 3.39
15 84 Joel Hanrahan 2013 9.82
16 83 Derrick Turnbow 2009 0.00 DNP
17 83 Jesse Crain 2013 1.47
18 83 Bobby Seay 2009 4.62
19 83 Juan Rincon 2010 4.50
20 83 Jason Frasor 2009 2.65
21 83 Scott Williamson 2007 5.02
22 83 Craig Breslow 2012 3.13
23 83 Jim Kern 1980 5.54
24 82 Manny Acosta 2012 7.23
25 82 Francisco Rodriguez 2013 2.70
26 82 Tyler Yates 2009 9.00
27 82 Brian Bruney 2013 0.00 DNP
28 82 Scott Proctor 2008 6.98
29 82 Mike Adams 2010 1.89
30 81 Rich Gossage 1983 2.78
31 81 Brendan Donnelly 2003 1.70
32 81 Brian Tallet 2009 5.55
33 81 Manny Delcarmen 2013 0.00 DNP
34 81 Pat Neshek 2012 1.37
35 80 Robb Nen 2001 3.24
36 80 Felix Rodriguez 2004 3.43
37 80 Todd Coffey 2012 5.12
38 80 Vinnie Chulk 2010 0.00 DNP
39 80 John Wetteland 1998 2.47
40 80 Scot Shields 2007 4.32
41 80 Joaquin Benoit 2009 0.00 DNP
42 80 Jesse Orosco 1988 3.06
43 80 Jeff Montgomery 1993 2.27
44 80 Greg McMichael 1998 5.16
45 80 Kevin Gregg 2009 4.98
46 80 Mike MacDougal 2008 2.12
47 80 Mike Jackson 1996 4.00
48 80 Jesus Colome 2009 7.59
49 80 Nick Masset 2013 0.00 DNP
50 79 Matt Lindstrom 2011 3.50
51 79 Jason Isringhausen 2004 3.23
52 79 Hoyt Wilhelm 1954 2.51
53 79 Joe Thatcher 2013 3.43
54 79 Pedro Feliciano 2008 4.05
55 79 Scott Linebrink 2008 3.88
56 78 Jared Burton 2012 3.05
57 78 Casey Janssen 2013 2.91
58 78 Juan Cruz 2010 3.38
59 78 John Grabow 2010 8.42
60 78 Bruce Sutter 1984 1.98
61 78 Bryan Harvey 1994 5.23
62 78 Doug Slaten 2011 5.51
63 78 Rafael Soriano 2011 4.12
64 78 B.J. Ryan 2007 14.54
65 78 Dan Wheeler 2009 3.75
66 78 David Riske 2008 5.31
67 78 Keith Foulke 2004 2.39
68 77 Paul Shuey 2002 3.84
69 77 Norm Charlton 1994 0.00 DNP
70 77 Jason Bulger 2010 5.25
71 77 Aaron Heilman 2010 4.50
72 77 Sparky Lyle 1976 2.86
73 77 Jeff Nelson 1998 4.02
74 77 Willie Hernandez 1986 3.65
75 77 Darren Holmes 1997 5.84
76 77 Dave Righetti 1990 4.08
77 77 Dennys Reyes 2008 2.33
78 77 Jon Rauch 2010 3.12
79 77 Gene Garber 1979 5.60
80 77 Trevor Hoffman 1999 3.07
81 76 Jeremy Affeldt 2010 4.50
82 76 Jason Christiansen 2001 3.22
83 76 Al Holland 1984 3.48
84 76 Mitch Stetter 2012 0.00 DNP
85 76 J.C. Romero 2007 1.92
86 76 Tippy Martinez 1981 3.36
87 76 Tug McGraw 1976 3.24
88 76 Chris Ray 2013 0.00 DNP
89 76 John Parrish 2009 0.00 DNP
90 76 Ryan Dempster 2008 3.27
91 76 Brandon Medders 2011 0.00 DNP
92 76 Steve Karsay 2003 0.00 DNP
93 76 Lindy McDaniel 1967 4.21
94 76 Jim Mecir 2001 3.57
95 75 Chuck McElroy 1999 5.67
96 75 Matt Thornton 2008 2.67
97 75 Aurelio Lopez 1980 4.14
98 75 Kyle Farnsworth 2007 5.25
99 75 Jeff Bennett 2011 0.00 DNP
100 75 Mel Rojas 1998 6.05

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .251 .347 .381 .261
11 vs R (Multi) .258 .321 .407 .248
18 Split (Multi) -.007 .026 -.027 .013
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .289 .382 .456 .281
31 vs R (2013) .282 .331 .430 .252
38 Split (2013) .008 .051 .027 .029
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 If they were to analyze Milwaukee’s 2012 outbreak of Bullpen Dropsy, forensic epidemiologists would have little difficulty identifying Axford as Patient Zero. The Brewers closer maintained his frequently overpowering stuff, but struggled with his command and had difficulty throwing his curveball for strikes, making it easier for hitters to sit on his fastball. The resultant swelling of his home-run and walk rates led to a disastrous series of blown saves culminating in a brief dismissal from ninth-inning duties. On the plus side, Axford rebounded down the stretch, and his fastball can still dent walls and generate enough strikeouts to overcome his always-iffy walk rate. As with most flamethrowers of his ilk, he’s likely to toggle from dominance to combustibility and back again for years to come.
2012 Even though Axford was dominant as a closer down the stretch in 2010, there remained some concerns over his control entering 2011. With six walks in his first seven outings (6 1/3 IP) in 2011 contributing to his 8.53 ERA, the worst fears appeared to be coming true. But "Ax Man" sharpened his stuff after that, striking out 80 while walking just 19 the rest of the way. He rarely needs his good curve or slider with his high heat having plenty of movement and velocity, but when either is working in a game, he's as tough an assignment as anyone.
2011 Axford has become a fan favorite due more to his facial-hair experiments and rags-to-riches back-story than his stuff, but his mid-90s fastball and sharp-breaking off-speed pitches are no fluke—they generate more than enough swings and misses to work in the ninth inning. The question with him has always been control. Last year Axford walked a little over four men per nine innings, while his minor-league stat line suffered from over six free passes per nine. Relievers with walk rates that high tend to lose their grip on the closer reins as managers grow frustrated with their self-inflicted jams. While it’s possible that Axford has developed a newfound ability to find the strike zone and will spend the next half-decade closing games at Miller Park, it’s just as likely that Brewers fans will wake up one morning to discover that yesterday’s Rollie Fingers has morphed into today’s Derrick Turnbow. You’ve been warned.
2010 A lanky Canadian reliever who worked his mid-90s fastball all the way from High-A to Miller Park in a single season, Axford has posted consistently high strikeout rates throughout his minor-league career. But command has always been his bugbear, and while 2009 saw his lowest walk rates to date, he still handed out a plethora of free passes (five per nine innings). The combination of live arm and small paycheck means he should have a good shot at going north with the big club, but if Axford can’t do a better job of avoiding ball four, he won’t be there long.

BP Articles

John Axford is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2013-04-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)So, who do you have finishing the season with the most saves for the Cubs, Cards and Brewers? thanks
(Kevin from Boston)
For the Cubs, I would have to guess Kyuji Fujikawa. Carlos Marmol might get the job again, but he would probably be put in there to showcase him for a trade. Trevor Rosenthal isn't the closer now in St. Louis, but Mitchell Boggs has already struggled so if I'm going to guess, I'm going to guess the guy with the skills and the stuff. Milwaukee is a mystery to me. I thought John Axford would lose the job but had no idea it would happen so quickly. I would guess Jim Henderson, but he has some of the same control/command issues that Ax does/did. My sleeper in this pen is Brandon Kintzler, but I don't see Kintzler as having a path to the job at the moment. (Mike Gianella)
2013-04-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Let's say you were a bird, and you had to fly to any baseball city and sit on top of any ballpark to watch John Axford in a 1980s exercise show with the Muppet Babies , would you rather buy Scooter "Ryan" Gennett in a keeper dynasty rotisserie auction fantasy league or read a prospect "Trevor" story about household pests?
(John Axford from Iowa)
And that pretty much sums it up. Sorry for driving this trainwreck. Hope you all had fun. I had fun! Logging off now, see you next time. (Sam Miller)
2013-02-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which major leaguer wins an episode of Chopped?
(Jake Mintz from Maryland)
Can John Axford cook? I feel like he can. Maybe it's just the mustache. I bet Pablo Sandoval can whip up a pretty decent spread too. (Ian Miller)
2011-08-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Howdy Jay ... thanks for chatting. Your choices for best mustaches currently in MLB are? More seriously ... at a certain point, prospects lose their optimal value if something isn't done with them. Is Montero's value "past prime"? Should Cashman have dealt any of his stable for "something", even if the (perceived) talent exchange was negative for the Yanks?
(dianagramr from NYC)
Hey Diana! John Axford has a pretty remarkable mustache. I haven't seen Dale Thayer lately and am not even sure he's on the Mets' 25-man roster, but he's got a fantastic mustache. I'm pretty sure Brendan Ryan's infield triple owes its entirety to the awesome power of the 'stache.

As for prospects, while I agree that they lose their optimal value at some point, I reject the notion that Montero's time has passed - he's 21 freakin' years old! I don't at all think there was any reason for Cashman to trade his blue chippers for "something" just to look busy. This isn't McDonalds, where if you've got time to lean, you've got time to clean. (Jay Jaffe)
2011-05-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you think is the next guy to nab a closer job? I'm talking about unheralded guys like John Axford last year as opposed to the sexy setup guys from the preseason like Daniel Bard and Jake McGee.
(Aaron from YYZ)
I'll say Kevin Jepsen of the Angels. (John Perrotto)
2011-04-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Ben What are the chances that Zach Braddock will be closing this year or next? Thanks
(Ed from Cranford, NJ)
I guess that depends on the chances that John Axford won't be closing this year or next. Here's what we said on that subject in this year's annual:

"Relievers with walk rates that high tend to lose their grip on the closer reins as managers grow frustrated with their self-inflicted jams. While it’s possible that Axford has developed a newfound ability to find the strike zone and will spend the next half-decade closing games at Miller Park, it’s just as likely that Brewers fans will wake up one morning to discover that yesterday’s Rollie Fingers has morphed into today’s Derrick Turnbow."

I don't think Axford is about to enter Turnbow territory, but there are certainly unlikelier closer candidates than Braddock. His talents would be wasted in the bullpen, though: with a name like that, he really should've been a cowboy or a spaceship captain. (Ben Lindbergh)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which closer loses his job first, regardless of cause (injury/ineffectiveness/etc): Axford, Simon, Street, Wagner
(Andy from Chicago)
Alfredo Simon. John Axford's mustache precludes him from long-term ineffectiveness, and also acts as a self-healing miracle worker. (Marc Normandin)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


John Axford has thrown 6,211 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason, The World Baseball Classic and Spring Training. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (96mph), also mixing in a Cutter (89mph), Curve (79mph) and Sinker (95mph). He also rarely throws a Slider (86mph).