Biographical

Portrait of Henderson Alvarez

Henderson Alvarez PMarlins

Marlins Player Cards | Marlins Team Audit | Marlins Depth Chart

2014 Rest-of-Season Projections (seasonal age 24)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
74.0 3.93 1.24 41 5 6 0 0.3
Birth Date4-18-1990
Height6' 0"
Weight205 lbs
Age24 years, 3 months, 4 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
0.42011
-1.02012
1.12013
1.72014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2011 TOR 21 10 10 63.7 63.7 0.0 1 3 0 0 6 0 259 64 26 25 8 103 8 8 4 40 3.53 4.00 5.04 3.6 0.4
2012 TOR 22 31 31 187.3 187.3 0.0 9 14 0 0 16 2 807 216 110 101 29 352 54 52 3 79 4.85 5.13 6.35 -11.5 -1.0
2013 MIA 23 17 17 102.7 102.7 0.0 5 6 0 0 9 0 418 90 42 41 2 129 27 26 7 57 3.59 3.16 4.23 9.0 1.1
2014 MIA 24 20 20 122.7 122.7 0.0 6 5 0 0 11 0 509 132 45 36 7 180 22 19 5 75 2.64 3.29 4.04 9.9 1.4
Career7878476.3476.30.0212800422199350222320346764111105192513.844.085.1211.11.9

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2007 DLJ Rk 8 7 25.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .383 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2008 BLJ Rk 12 11 46.3 5.51 86 .280 .252 .329 .370 .238 .353 101 3.2 0.3 3.2 0.3
2009 LNS A 23 23 124.3 3.92 119 .228 .258 .335 .378 .259 .303 109 24.6 2.6 24.6 2.6
2010 DUN A+ 23 21 112.3 5.28 65 .302 .256 .323 .363 .262 .337 87 -7.2 -0.7 -7.2 -0.7
2010 LAG Wnt 7 7 28.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .333 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2011 TOR MLB 10 10 63.7 5.04 94 .253 .253 .317 .391 .258 .281 106 3.6 0.4 3.6 0.4
2011 DUN A+ 2 2 8.3 5.56 98 .265 .260 .322 .365 .250 .344 114 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.1
2011 NHP AA 15 14 88.0 4.45 94 .234 .264 .333 .410 .277 .286 88 4.3 0.4 4.3 0.4
2012 TOR MLB 31 31 187.3 6.35 67 .276 .259 .323 .423 .267 .291 108 -11.4 -1.2 -11.5 -1.0
2013 MIA MLB 17 17 102.7 4.23 90 .234 .250 .314 .387 .257 .271 95 3.8 0.4 9.0 1.1
2013 JUP A+ 2 2 10.0 5.31 70 .232 .243 .304 .374 .250 .242 88 -0.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.1
2013 JAX AA 2 2 14.3 2.49 139 .106 .241 .312 .354 .251 .143 96 3.1 0.3 4.8 0.5
2013 VEN int 1 0 3.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .357 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2014 MIA MLB 20 20 122.7 4.04 92 .266 .243 .303 .373 .257 .312 93 5.5 0.6 9.9 1.4

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2007 DLJ Rk 1 2 0 8 7 25.7 36 8 20 0 0% .383 12.6 2.8 0.0 7.0 1.71 5.60 0.0 0.0
2008 BLJ Rk 1 4 0 12 11 46.3 63 6 34 3 60% .353 12.2 1.2 0.6 6.6 1.49 5.64 3.2 0.3
2009 LNS A 9 6 0 23 23 124.3 121 19 92 1 53% .303 8.8 1.4 0.1 6.7 1.13 3.48 24.6 2.6
2010 LAG Wnt 0 1 0 7 7 28.3 30 8 19 1 0% .333 9.5 2.5 0.3 6.0 1.34 2.23 0.0 0.0
2010 DUN A+ 8 7 0 23 21 112.3 137 27 78 10 52% .337 11.0 2.2 0.8 6.3 1.46 4.33 -7.2 -0.7
2011 TOR MLB 1 3 0 10 10 63.7 64 8 40 8 55% .281 9.0 1.1 1.1 5.7 1.13 3.53 3.6 0.4
2011 NHP AA 8 4 0 15 14 88.0 81 17 66 7 54% .286 8.3 1.7 0.7 6.8 1.11 2.86 4.3 0.4
2011 DUN A+ 0 1 0 2 2 8.3 11 1 4 0 59% .344 11.9 1.1 0.0 4.3 1.44 6.48 0.6 0.1
2012 TOR MLB 9 14 0 31 31 187.3 216 54 79 29 58% .291 10.4 2.6 1.4 3.8 1.44 4.85 -11.5 -1.0
2013 MIA MLB 5 6 0 17 17 102.7 90 27 57 2 55% .271 7.9 2.4 0.2 5.0 1.14 3.59 9.0 1.1
2013 VEN int 0 1 0 1 0 3.0 5 1 0 0 0% .357 15.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.00 9.00 0.0 0.0
2013 JAX AA 1 0 0 2 2 14.3 5 0 13 0 77% .143 3.1 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.35 0.00 4.8 0.5
2013 JUP A+ 1 0 0 2 2 10.0 9 1 2 1 53% .242 8.1 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.00 2.70 -0.7 -0.1
2014 MIA MLB 6 5 0 20 20 122.7 132 22 75 7 56% .312 9.7 1.6 0.5 5.5 1.26 2.64 9.9 1.4

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2011 977 0.5077 0.4606 0.8600 0.6452 0.2703 0.8969 0.7692 0.1400
2012 2857 0.5586 0.4608 0.8868 0.6147 0.2657 0.9235 0.7791 0.1117
2013 1444 0.5416 0.4654 0.8557 0.6023 0.3036 0.9066 0.7363 0.1443
2014 1694 0.5614 0.4787 0.8409 0.6236 0.2934 0.9056 0.6651 0.1591
Career69720.54860.46610.86550.61860.28090.91190.74110.1339

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-07-20 - DTD - - Left Lower Leg Contusion Shin -
2014-06-09 2014-06-15 DTD 6 4 Left Hip Strain -
2014-05-29 2014-06-03 DTD 5 4 Right Elbow Stiffness -
2013-09-03 2013-09-09 DTD 6 5 Right Thigh Tightness Hamstring - -
2013-03-27 2013-07-04 60-DL 99 83 Right Shoulder Inflammation - -
2012-08-28 2012-09-01 DTD 4 4 Left Lower Leg Contusion Batted Ball - -
2012-06-25 2012-06-25 DTD 0 0 Right Elbow Soreness - -
2011-04-06 2011-05-09 Minors 33 30 Not Disclosed -
2010-08-13 2010-09-01 Minors 19 0 Right Shoulder Soreness -
2009-08-16 2009-09-07 Minors 22 0 Right Arm Fatigue Team Controlling IP -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2015 MIA $
2014 MIA $525,400
2013 MIA $507,900
2012 TOR $482,900
YearsDescriptionSalary
2 yrPrevious$990,800
2011Current$525,400
3 yrPvs + Cur$1,516,200
3 yrTotal$1,516,200

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
2 y 51 d1 year/$0.5254M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$0.5254M (2014). Re-signed by Miami 3/1/14.
  • 1 year/$0.5079M (2013). Renewed by Miami 3/2/13.
  • 1 year/$0.4829M (2012). Re-signed by Toronto 3/12. Acquired by Miami in trade from Toronto 11/13/12.
  • 1 year (2011). Contract purchased by Toronto 8/9/11.
  • Signed by Toronto 2006 as an amateur free agent from Venezuela.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 9 10.1 0 29 29 185.7 161 39 96 14 .266 1.08 3.18 3.46 22.5 2.3
80o 8.7 10.6 0 29 29 178.6 164 40 92 14 .277 1.14 3.49 3.8 15.2 1.6
70o 8.5 11 0 29 29 173.5 166 40 90 14 .286 1.19 3.72 4.04 10.2 1.0
60o 8.3 11.3 0 29 29 169.2 168 40 88 15 .293 1.23 3.92 4.26 5.8 0.6
50o 8.1 11.6 0 29 29 165.3 169 41 86 15 .300 1.27 4.10 4.46 1.8 0.2
40o 7.9 11.9 0 29 29 161.4 171 41 84 15 .307 1.31 4.29 4.66 -2.0 -0.2
30o 7.7 12.3 0 29 29 157.3 172 41 82 15 .314 1.36 4.49 4.88 -6.2 -0.6
20o 7.4 12.7 0 29 29 152.5 173 42 79 15 .322 1.41 4.73 5.14 -10.9 -1.1
10o 7.1 13.3 0 29 29 146.1 175 42 76 15 .334 1.48 5.06 5.5 -17.2 -1.8
Weighted Mean8.111.602929165.2168408615.2981.264.094.442.20.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
24% 56% 20% 27% 92%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201525101002929183191391011652.3081.254.084.449.41.95.00.80.1
20162610902828173166371031452.2961.173.623.948.61.95.40.71.2
201727880232313813829811352.2991.213.854.189.01.95.30.80.6
20182866018181081122162952.3081.233.954.309.31.75.20.70.3
201929760191911411623651152.3031.223.914.259.21.85.10.90.4
20203066017171031042060952.3021.203.854.199.11.75.20.80.4
202131650171798991956952.3011.203.874.209.11.75.10.80.4
202232550151590921751952.3021.213.914.259.21.75.10.90.3
202333550141484861647852.3031.223.924.269.31.75.10.90.3

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
6.54.710.57.55.812.335

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 76)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 89 Jeremy Sowers 2007 6.55
2 89 Chris Volstad 2011 5.22
3 88 John Lannan 2009 4.36
4 87 Tommy Hunter 2011 5.31
5 86 Zach Duke 2007 6.20
6 86 Jose Quintana 2013 3.73
7 86 Jesse Litsch 2009 9.00
8 83 Brett Cecil 2011 4.95
9 83 Vin Mazzaro 2011 8.26
10 83 Matt Harrison 2010 5.17
11 81 Greg Reynolds 2010 0.00 DNP
12 81 Mike Pelfrey 2008 3.86
13 81 Tom Gorzelanny 2007 4.02
14 81 Sean Gallagher 2010 6.24
15 81 Aaron Laffey 2009 5.10
16 80 Casey Coleman 2012 7.40
17 80 Alex Sanabia 2013 5.37
18 79 Trevor Cahill 2012 4.18
19 79 Anibal Sanchez 2008 6.10
20 79 Kyle Kendrick 2009 3.76
21 78 Homer Bailey 2010 4.54
22 78 Jaime Garcia 2011 4.62
23 77 Rick Porcello 2013 4.37
24 77 Josh Johnson 2008 3.71
25 77 Brad Bergesen 2010 5.51
26 77 Justin Masterson 2009 4.94
27 77 Sean O'Sullivan 2012 0.00 DNP
28 76 Edwin Jackson 2008 4.47
29 76 David Price 2010 3.06
30 76 Andrew Miller 2009 5.85
31 76 Jarrod Parker 2013 4.20
32 75 Blake Beavan 2013 6.13
33 75 Brian Matusz 2011 10.69
34 75 Kevin Mulvey 2009 8.14
35 75 Jim Willoughby 1973 5.41
36 75 Liam Hendriks 2013 7.42
37 75 Dallas Keuchel 2012 5.91
38 75 Drew Pomeranz 2013 6.23
39 75 J.P. Howell 2007 7.94
40 75 Dave Rozema 1981 3.63
41 75 Trevor Bell 2011 3.67
42 75 Brett Anderson 2012 2.83
43 74 T.J. McFarland 2013 4.46
44 74 Matt Morris 1999 0.00 DNP
45 74 Lary Sorensen 1980 4.19
46 74 Stan Bahnsen 1969 4.17
47 74 Ivan Nova 2011 4.03
48 74 Mel Stottlemyre 1966 4.16
49 74 Pedro Astacio 1993 3.82
50 74 Juan Gutierrez 2008 0.00 DNP
51 74 Robbie Ross 2013 3.03
52 74 Mark Buehrle 2003 4.85
53 74 Jon Lester 2008 3.34
54 74 Jim Hardin 1968 2.91
55 74 Zach McAllister 2012 5.60
56 74 Adam Warren 2012 23.14
57 73 Rubby De La Rosa 2013 5.56
58 73 Steve Avery 1994 4.21
59 73 Vance Worley 2012 4.67
60 73 Sean West 2010 8.68
61 73 Mike Mussina 1993 4.51
62 73 Bob Hendley 1963 4.30
63 73 Chris Hernandez 2013 0.00 DNP
64 73 Travis Wood 2011 4.84
65 73 Anthony Swarzak 2010 0.00 DNP
66 73 Burt Hooton 1974 5.72
67 73 Dick Ellsworth 1964 4.52
68 73 Zach Britton 2012 5.37
69 73 Tommy Hanson 2011 3.81
70 73 Joe Magrane 1989 3.11
71 73 Fred Newman 1966 4.73
72 73 Jim Abbott 1992 3.11
73 72 Sean Marshall 2007 4.53
74 72 Dave Goltz 1973 5.84
75 72 Ross Detwiler 2010 6.67
76 72 Steve Hargan 1967 3.19
77 72 Jair Jurrjens 2010 4.87
78 72 Ismael Valdez 1998 4.24
79 72 Eric O'Flaherty 2009 3.67
80 72 Storm Davis 1986 4.09
81 72 Rick Reuschel 1973 3.57
82 72 Mat Latos 2012 3.74
83 72 Anthony Bass 2012 5.47
84 72 Mark Mulder 2002 3.82
85 72 Jeanmar Gomez 2012 6.55
86 72 Jim Kaat 1963 4.84
87 72 Joel Pineiro 2003 4.00
88 72 Andrew Cashner 2011 1.69
89 72 Jorge Reyes 2012 0.00 DNP
90 72 Matt Capps 2008 3.35
91 72 Matt Garza 2008 4.05
92 72 Justin Grimm 2013 6.43
93 71 Derek Holland 2011 4.41
94 71 John Lackey 2003 5.16
95 71 Dave Stieb 1982 3.62
96 71 Brian Holman 1989 4.05
97 71 Jose Rosado 1999 4.46
98 71 Milt Pappas 1963 3.24
99 71 Brandon Cumpton 2013 2.35
100 71 Jim Perry 1960 4.06

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .288 .349 .462 .284
11 vs R (Multi) .236 .278 .347 .222
18 Split (Multi) .052 .071 .115 .063
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .269 .333 .419 .265
31 vs R (2013) .206 .261 .263 .194
38 Split (2013) .063 .073 .156 .072
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Like everybody else on the team, Alvarez came over from Toronto during the offseason. He had the best season (at least at the major-league level) of anybody going south in the deal, with groundball stylings that are waning but still significantly better than the league's average. Not even Hall of Fame pitcher Grounder McGroundballingtonson can maintain Alvarez's home run rate, and Alvarez—bless his heart—is no Grounder McGroundballingtonson.
2013 For a pitcher who specializes in generating groundballs, Alvarez gave up an unusual number of home runs last year. Of the 24 American League pitchers with at least 75 innings pitched and 50 percent of batted balls being hit on the ground, Alvarez was among the nine to average more than one home run per nine innings. He throws a heavy, low-to-mid-90s fastball, but batters didn’t have much trouble with it last year, hitting .293/.339/.498 in 307 at bats. Alvarez’s secondary offerings are less impressive, though he does have good deception on his changeup. He was traded to Miami in November’s blockbuster deal with the Blue Jays, and is expected to occupy one of the top three slots in the Marlins rotation this year.
2012 The Venezuelan righty was probably the biggest gainer in an impressive year for the Blue Jays farm system. Seen prior to the season as a live arm with little to show for it, he went from High-A to the majors in less than 100 innings—even after he lost a month to injury. Alvarez sits in the mid-90s with his fastball (which has electric late movement), generates plenty of ground balls, and has an advanced changeup. His best start of the season was a 97-pitch, eight-inning outing against the Orioles. He allowed just three hits and no walks while recording five strikeouts and 18 ground balls. He’ll be slotted into the back end of the rotation next year, but his ceiling is considerably higher than that.
2011 Henderson Alvarez is the kind of ground-ball pitcher who gets no favors from A-ball defenses, but at least his control has stood by him.
2010 Henderson Alvarez is a righty control artist with a good changeup who pitched well starting for the Lugnuts last year as a 19-year-old, and could have a future as a back-end big-league starter.

BP Articles

Henderson Alvarez is referenced in the following articles.

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-07-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Many of the "experts" seem down on Henderson Alvarez, yet he continues to pitch well. What are your thoughts on him?
(cracker73 from Florida)
He doesn't miss any bats. That's always gonna be an issue. That much contact is hard to keep under control, but he plays in the right park for it. I've been among the skeptics and while I'm more open to using him on the cheap in daily, I'm still not terribly interested in season-long. The ERA and WHIP don't jive and it's the ERA that will likely go up before the WHIP comes down. His 2013 ERA (3.59) and 2014 WHIP (1.26) are a better match... which is still plenty useful (Paul Sporer)
2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)Can Jeremy Hellickson be fixed ? Can Henderson Alvarez keep it going ?
(tbwhite from San Diego)
Helix can certainly be fixed, and it starts by killing the slide step. He used to throw in the slide step every once in awhile to keep runners honest, but last season he invoked the slide step every friggin' pitch with a runner on base.

An interesting element for Alvarez was that he scrapped the change-up last season, a pitch that had been roped in previous years. His excellent command of raw 93-95 mph velocity with good sink is the main ingredient to his success, with a solid slider that gives hitters another look.It will be interesting to see what he brings to the table in 2014. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)Doug, I need your input on long-term value. 10 team dynasty with 7 pitcher slots. Have Strasburg, Sale, Fernandez, Harvey and Chapman. Need to select two from Brandon Beachy, Andrew Cashner, Corey Kluber, Brett Anderson, Henderson Alvarez. Help appreciated. Thank you.
(nictaclacta from Glendale)
Your top end is ridiculous, even if you have to wait on Harvey. I would hold on to Cashner from the second group, no doubt, while your last guy is a tougher call. Since your 7th slot could change between now and this time next year, you are probably looking for 2014 value (or trade value) with a shot at upside - for that reason I would choose between Beachy and Anderson. Anderson still has the name and the hope, but the faith is all but sapped, so that is a dice-roll for 2014 with prayers for a break-through season that ups his trade value. Beachy is a command guy, and since command is the last thing to return from TJS, I would say that he has the best chance to vault his value next season, though his down velocity in a small sample of 2013 adds some concern.

On the jukebox: White Zombie, "Thunderkiss '65" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Not prospects but what are your thoughts on Henderson Alvarez and Randall Delgado? Both have looked good in the handful of starts since they've been called up - can they keep it going?
(mark from arizona)
I believe so I really liked what I saw from Delgado when he came through the Carolina League as a prospect. (Zach Mortimer)
2013-03-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey, Paul, love the book (and want the Relief Pitcher Guide next)! Is there any precedent for pitchers like Martin Perez and Henderson Alvarez -- high-end stuff, low-end strikeouts -- pulling it together to become stars, or does the track-record of not missing bats promise a low ceiling?
(edwardarthur from Illinois)
Thanks. I'm not sure those two are the same as Alvarez never really fanned guys whereas Perez has. My guess is there are tons of guys like that through history. I'm struggling to come up with some off-hand, but I doubt it's terribly uncommon. (Paul Sporer)
2012-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any "sophomores" you like to break out this season
(moehk21 from NYC)
I like Ben Revere, Eric Thames, Lucas Duda, Cory Luebke, Danny Duffy, Henderson Alvarez all to various degrees. (Derek Carty)
2011-12-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Henderson Alvarez stick in the rotation all year for the Jays? Think Darvish turns the Jays into a contender for the division?
(Bill from Nova Scotia)
I'm not sure about Henderson. That's a very difficult question to answer. Darvish alone won't turn the Jays into a contender in 2012, but he can help the cause. Put it this way (very simply): The Jays would be a better team if they landed Darvish. (Jason Parks)
2011-09-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)Better future - Henderson Alvarez or Zach Britton?
(dharris from ny)
Britton. (Kevin Goldstein)
2011-06-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you generally make of prospects that have reports of great stuff and big fastballs, but don't generate the strikeouts you'd expect? I'm thinking of Henderson Alvarez this year in particular, but I'm sure there's many examples.
(Bret from Toronto)
I talk to scouts to see if the pitch is straight and/or if they are relying on the pitch too much. Alvarez needs to improve his breaking ball, and has a tendency to elevate, thus the lack of missed bats. (Kevin Goldstein)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Henderson Alvarez has thrown 6,932 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2014, all of them occuring in the MLB Regular Season. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (94mph) and Change (90mph), also mixing in a Fourseam Fastball (95mph) and Slider (84mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (67mph), Slow Curve (60mph) and Cutter (91mph).