Biographical

Portrait of Chris Carpenter

Chris Carpenter PCardinals

Cardinals Player Cards | Cardinals Team Audit | Cardinals Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 39)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
38.7 3.37 1.16 30 2 2 0 0.5
Birth Date4-27-1975
Height6' 6"
Weight230 lbs
Age39 years, 5 months, 27 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
0.42010
2.72011
0.22012
2013
0.52014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
1997 TOR 22 14 13 81.3 75.3 6.0 3 7 0 0 7 1 374 108 55 46 7 147 37 37 2 55 5.09 4.35 4.77 9.7 1.0
1998 TOR 23 33 24 175.0 152.3 22.7 12 7 0 0 11 3 742 177 97 85 18 277 61 60 5 136 4.37 4.14 4.66 19.2 1.5
1999 TOR 24 24 24 150.0 150.0 0.0 9 8 0 0 14 1 663 177 81 73 16 271 48 47 3 106 4.38 4.20 4.78 27.4 2.4
2000 TOR 25 34 27 175.3 156.7 18.7 10 12 0 0 11 1 795 204 130 122 30 349 83 82 5 113 6.26 5.66 6.64 -7.0 -1.0
2001 TOR 26 34 34 215.7 215.7 0.0 11 11 0 0 17 4 930 229 112 98 29 375 75 70 16 157 4.09 4.66 5.70 4.3 0.3
2002 TOR 27 13 13 73.3 73.3 0.0 4 5 0 0 5 2 327 89 45 43 11 139 27 27 4 45 5.28 5.05 5.72 3.7 0.3
2004 SLN 29 28 28 182.0 182.0 0.0 15 5 0 0 18 2 746 169 75 70 24 271 38 36 8 152 3.46 3.76 4.61 11.3 1.5
2005 SLN 30 33 33 241.7 241.7 0.0 21 5 0 0 27 1 953 204 82 76 18 310 51 51 3 213 2.83 2.87 3.87 37.3 4.0
2006 SLN 31 32 32 221.7 221.7 0.0 15 8 0 0 19 2 896 194 81 76 21 301 43 40 10 184 3.09 3.40 4.33 24.7 2.2
2007 SLN 32 1 1 6.0 6.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 0 0 29 9 5 5 0 10 1 1 1 3 7.50 3.18 3.34 1.5 0.1
2008 SLN 33 4 3 15.3 14.3 1.0 0 1 0 0 0 0 63 16 5 3 0 19 4 4 0 7 1.76 2.97 4.18 1.4 0.2
2009 SLN 34 28 28 192.7 192.7 0.0 17 4 0 0 22 0 750 156 49 48 7 214 38 37 7 144 2.24 2.73 3.63 30.4 2.7
2010 SLN 35 35 35 235.0 235.0 0.0 16 9 0 0 25 1 969 214 99 84 21 331 63 59 13 179 3.22 3.71 4.50 3.8 0.4
2011 SLN 36 34 34 237.3 237.3 0.0 11 9 0 0 21 3 996 243 98 91 16 332 55 50 6 191 3.45 3.03 3.67 28.5 2.7
2012 SLN 37 3 3 17.0 17.0 0.0 0 2 0 0 2 0 72 16 7 7 2 28 3 3 2 12 3.71 4.14 4.16 1.5 0.2
Career3503322219.32171.048.314494001992193052205102192722033746276048516973.763.814.62197.718.5

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
1997 TOR MLB 14 13 81.3 4.77 98 .295 .275 .345 .429 .268 .370 94 9.7 1.0 9.7 1.0
1998 TOR MLB 33 24 175.0 4.66 103 .259 .274 .340 .438 .268 .305 94 19.3 1.9 19.2 1.5
1999 TOR MLB 24 24 150.0 4.78 111 .265 .274 .344 .437 .264 .329 101 27.0 2.5 27.4 2.4
2000 TOR MLB 34 27 175.3 6.64 67 .284 .274 .347 .442 .266 .309 93 -5.7 -0.5 -7.0 -1.0
2001 TOR MLB 34 34 215.7 5.70 82 .267 .266 .333 .428 .264 .306 99 3.6 0.4 4.3 0.3
2002 TOR MLB 13 13 73.3 5.72 85 .290 .263 .335 .423 .266 .325 103 3.0 0.3 3.7 0.3
2004 SLN MLB 28 28 182.0 4.61 95 .231 .261 .325 .427 .260 .277 94 14.5 1.4 11.3 1.5
2005 SLN MLB 33 33 241.7 3.87 116 .215 .263 .327 .414 .260 .279 100 35.4 3.6 37.3 4.0
2006 SLN MLB 32 32 221.7 4.33 106 .221 .265 .329 .425 .260 .271 94 25.3 2.5 24.7 2.2
2007 SLN MLB 1 1 6.0 3.34 131 .297 .280 .338 .433 .268 .375 101 1.7 0.2 1.5 0.1
2008 SLN MLB 4 3 15.3 4.18 111 .220 .257 .328 .405 .258 .308 101 2.3 0.2 1.4 0.2
2009 SLN MLB 28 28 192.7 3.63 113 .202 .257 .323 .404 .257 .269 92 26.4 2.7 30.4 2.7
2010 SLN MLB 35 35 235.0 4.50 86 .254 .253 .316 .397 .262 .278 89 5.3 0.6 3.8 0.4
2011 SLN MLB 34 34 237.3 3.67 108 .247 .252 .311 .389 .256 .312 96 25.4 2.7 28.5 2.7
2012 SLN MLB 3 3 17.0 4.16 102 .261 .252 .312 .413 .263 .264 99 1.5 0.2 1.5 0.2
2013 SFD AA 1 1 2.7 5.30 91 .407 .246 .306 .399 .260 .556 113 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0
2013 MEM AAA 1 1 3.3 4.06 96 .452 .274 .344 .417 .276 .600 82 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
1997 TOR MLB 3 7 0 14 13 81.3 108 37 55 7 49% .370 12.0 4.1 0.8 6.1 1.78 5.09 9.7 1.0
1998 TOR MLB 12 7 0 33 24 175.0 177 61 136 18 51% .305 9.1 3.1 0.9 7.0 1.36 4.37 19.2 1.5
1999 TOR MLB 9 8 0 24 24 150.0 177 48 106 16 46% .329 10.6 2.9 1.0 6.4 1.50 4.38 27.4 2.4
2000 TOR MLB 10 12 0 34 27 175.3 204 83 113 30 53% .309 10.5 4.3 1.5 5.8 1.64 6.26 -7.0 -1.0
2001 TOR MLB 11 11 0 34 34 215.7 229 75 157 29 58% .306 9.6 3.1 1.2 6.6 1.41 4.09 4.3 0.3
2002 TOR MLB 4 5 0 13 13 73.3 89 27 45 11 51% .325 10.9 3.3 1.4 5.5 1.58 5.28 3.7 0.3
2004 SLN MLB 15 5 0 28 28 182.0 169 38 152 24 54% .277 8.4 1.9 1.2 7.5 1.14 3.46 11.3 1.5
2005 SLN MLB 21 5 0 33 33 241.7 204 51 213 18 55% .279 7.6 1.9 0.7 7.9 1.06 2.83 37.3 4.0
2006 SLN MLB 15 8 0 32 32 221.7 194 43 184 21 55% .271 7.9 1.7 0.9 7.5 1.07 3.09 24.7 2.2
2007 SLN MLB 0 1 0 1 1 6.0 9 1 3 0 67% .375 13.5 1.5 0.0 4.5 1.67 7.50 1.5 0.1
2008 SLN MLB 0 1 0 4 3 15.3 16 4 7 0 56% .308 9.4 2.3 0.0 4.1 1.30 1.76 1.4 0.2
2009 SLN MLB 17 4 0 28 28 192.7 156 38 144 7 57% .269 7.3 1.8 0.3 6.7 1.01 2.24 30.4 2.7
2010 SLN MLB 16 9 0 35 35 235.0 214 63 179 21 52% .278 8.2 2.4 0.8 6.9 1.18 3.22 3.8 0.4
2011 SLN MLB 11 9 0 34 34 237.3 243 55 191 16 48% .312 9.2 2.1 0.6 7.2 1.26 3.45 28.5 2.7
2012 SLN MLB 0 2 0 3 3 17.0 16 3 12 2 44% .264 8.5 1.6 1.1 6.4 1.12 3.71 1.5 0.2
2013 SFD AA 0 1 0 1 1 2.7 6 2 5 1 30% .556 20.2 6.8 3.4 16.9 3.00 6.75 0.2 0.0
2013 MEM AAA 0 1 0 1 1 3.3 9 2 2 0 67% .600 24.3 5.4 0.0 5.4 3.30 10.80 0.4 0.0

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 207 0.4783 0.4251 0.8523 0.6364 0.2315 0.9206 0.6800 0.1477
2009 2620 0.5065 0.4625 0.7942 0.5953 0.3248 0.8924 0.6095 0.2041
2010 3513 0.4981 0.4491 0.8033 0.6120 0.2864 0.9066 0.5842 0.1942
2011 3586 0.5033 0.4759 0.7977 0.6438 0.3049 0.8907 0.5985 0.1988
2012 259 0.4865 0.4556 0.8390 0.5952 0.3233 0.9067 0.7209 0.1525
Career101850.50140.46170.80090.6190.30260.89760.60120.1964

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2012-03-26 2012-09-21 60-DL 179 150 Right Shoulder Surgery Thoracic Outlet Syndrome 2012-07-19 -
2012-03-25 2012-03-25 Camp 0 0 - Neck Cartilage Injury Bulging Disc - -
2012-03-10 2012-03-26 Camp 16 0 - Neck Nerve Injury - -
2011-03-02 2011-03-16 Camp 14 0 Left Thigh Strain Hamstring -
2010-09-16 2010-09-20 DTD 4 4 Right Thigh Cramp Hamstring -
2010-08-09 2010-08-09 DTD 0 0 - Back Abrasion Getting Kicked During Brawl -
2010-06-29 2010-07-03 DTD 4 4 Right Forearm Contusion Batted Ball -
2009-04-15 2009-05-20 15-DL 35 30 Left Ankle Strain Oblique -
2009-03-30 2009-04-06 Camp 7 0 - Lower Leg Strain Calf -
2008-11-04 2008-11-04 Off 0 0 Right Elbow Surgery Ulnar Nerve Transposition 2008-11-04
2008-09-03 2008-09-29 DTD 26 23 Right Shoulder Nerve Injury Brachial Plexus -
2008-08-11 2008-09-02 15-DL 22 18 Right Shoulder Strain Teres Major -
2008-03-21 2008-07-30 60-DL 131 109 Right Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2007-07-24
2007-07-24 2007-07-24 On-Alr 0 0 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2007-07-24
2007-04-02 2007-10-01 60-DL 182 161 Right Elbow Surgery Bone Spurs 2007-05-08
2006-08-27 2006-09-01 DTD 5 4 - General Medical Dehydration - -
2006-08-05 2006-08-09 DTD 4 4 Right Thumb Contusion Batted Ball - -
2006-08-04 2006-08-04 DTD 0 0 Right Thumb Contusion Batted Ball Off Thumb -
2006-05-20 2006-06-06 15-DL 17 15 Right Shoulder Inflammation Scapulothoracic Bursitis -
2006-04-04 2006-04-08 DTD 4 3 - Low Back Spasms - -
2005-10-05 2005-10-12 DTD 7 0 Right Hand Cramp Dehydration -
2005-09-19 2005-09-23 DTD 4 3 Low Back Tightness -
2004-09-19 2004-10-28 DTD 39 15 Right Upper Arm Nerve Injury Musculocutaneous Nerve Biceps -
2004-08-11 2004-08-20 DTD 9 9 Low Back Spasms -
2003-07-29 2003-07-29 On-Alr 0 0 Right Shoulder Surgery Scar Tissue 2003-07-29
2003-03-28 2003-09-29 60-DL 185 162 Right Shoulder Recovery From Surgery SLAP Labrum Tear 2002-09-02
2002-08-14 2002-09-30 60-DL 47 44 Right Shoulder Surgery SLAP Labrum Tear 2002-09-02
2002-04-22 2002-06-21 60-DL 60 52 Right Shoulder Inflammation Tendonitis -
2002-04-02 2002-04-20 15-DL 18 14 Right Shoulder Inflammation Tendonitis -
2001-09-10 2001-09-20 DTD 10 2 Right Forearm Contusion Batted Ball - -
2000-09-17 2000-09-29 DTD 12 11 Right Face Laceration Batted Ball - -
1999-09-12 1999-10-04 DTD 22 19 Right Elbow Surgery Bone Spurs 1999-09-16 -
1999-08-28 1999-09-11 15-DL 14 12 Right Elbow Soreness - -
1999-06-03 1999-06-28 15-DL 25 23 Right Elbow Inflammation - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2013 SLN $12,500,000
2012 SLN $8,500,000
2011 SLN $15,000,000
2010 SLN $14,500,000
2009 SLN $14,000,000
2008 SLN $10,500,000
2007 SLN $8,500,000
2006 SLN $5,000,000
2005 SLN $2,000,000
2004 SLN $300,000
2003 SLN $300,000
2002 TOR $3,450,000
2001 TOR $2,583,333
2000 TOR $733,333
YearsDescriptionSalary
14 yrPrevious$97,866,666
14 yrTotal$97,866,666

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
16 y 80 dBob LaMonte2 years/$21M (2012-13)

Details
  • 2 years/$21M (2012-13). Agreed to extension with St. Louis 9/11, re-working option year of previous deal. 12:$8.5 million, 13:$12.5 million. $2M annually deferred without interest. Retired 11/13.
  • 5 years/$63.5M (2008-11), plus 2012 club option. Signed extension with St. Louis 12/06. 07:$8.5M, 08:$10.5M, 09:$14M, 10:$14.5M, 11:$15M, 12:$15M club option, $1M buyout. $8M deferred without interest ($2M annually, 2009-12). Award bonuses: $0.25M for Cy Young ($0.1M for 2nd or 3rd, $50,000 for 4th, 5th). $50,000 each for All-Star, LCS or WS MVP, Gold Glove.
  • 2 years/$13M (2006-07), plus 2008 club option. Signed extension with St. Louis 4/05. 06:$5M, 07:$7M, 08:$8M club option, $1M buyout. 2008 option guaranteed with 200 IP in 2007 or 350 IP in 2006-07 or 525 IP in 2005-07. 2008 salary increases by $1M with 400 IP in 2006-07. Performance bonus: $0.1M for 170 IP in '06, $0.2M for 180 IP in '06, $0.2M for 190 IP in '06, $0.25M each for 200, 210 IP in '06, $0.5M for 220 IP in '06. Award bonuses.
  • 1 year/$0.5M (2004), plus 2005 club option. Re-signed by St. Louis 12/03. 04:$0.3M, 05:$2M club option, $0.2M buyout. $0.5M in 2004 performance bonuses ($50,000 for 10 starts, $0.1M for 20 start, $0.15M for 30 starts, $0.2M for 34 starts.) $2.55M in 2005 performance bonuses ($0.3M for 2010 starts, $0.4M for 20 starts, $0.45M for 25 starts, $0.5M for 30 starts, $0.55M for 34 starts). St. Louis exercised 2005 option 11/04.
  • 1 year/$0.3M (2003), plus 2004 club option. Signed by St. Louis as a free agent 12/02. 03:$0.3M, 04:$2M club option, $0.2M buyout. 2003 salary increases to $0.5M on Major League roster. $2M in performance bonuses.
  • 1 year/$3.45M (2002). Re-signed by Toronto 1/02 (avoided arbitration, $4.5M-$3.1M). Refused assignment to Triple-A 10/02.
  • 3 years/$3.55M (1999-01).
  • Drafted by Toronto 1993 (1-15) (Trinity HS, Manchester, N.H.).

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 3.6 2.4 0 8 8 54.6 42 10 42 3 .270 0.96 2.42 2.63 14.5 1.5
80o 3.1 2.2 0 7 7 48.9 41 9 38 3 .284 1.02 2.73 2.97 10.7 1.1
70o 2.8 2.1 0 7 7 44.9 39 9 35 3 .294 1.07 2.97 3.23 8.3 0.8
60o 2.6 2.1 0 6 6 41.6 38 9 32 3 .303 1.12 3.17 3.44 6.5 0.7
50o 2.3 2 0 6 6 38.5 36 8 30 3 .311 1.16 3.36 3.65 5.0 0.5
40o 2.1 1.9 0 5 5 35.5 35 8 28 3 .319 1.20 3.55 3.86 3.6 0.4
30o 1.9 1.8 0 5 5 32.3 33 8 25 3 .327 1.25 3.76 4.09 2.4 0.2
20o 1.6 1.6 0 4 4 28.7 30 7 22 3 .337 1.30 4.00 4.35 1.2 0.1
10o 1.3 1.4 0 4 4 23.9 27 6 19 2 .351 1.38 4.35 4.73 -0.0 -0.0
Weighted Mean2.31.906637.9358303.3091.153.343.635.00.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
5% 32% 14% 4% 66%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201540131103232208208421631851.3241.203.764.089.01.87.10.81.7
201641131103232205200511561851.3151.223.694.018.82.26.80.81.8
201742111002727164167401161451.3191.263.894.229.22.26.40.81.1
201843980232313513530971351.3171.233.814.149.02.06.50.91.1
201944980222213013232911251.3181.263.924.269.12.26.30.80.8
202045870202011712028831151.3201.263.904.249.22.16.40.80.8
2021466601616969924661051.3181.284.024.379.32.26.20.90.5
202247650141485872157951.3151.274.054.419.22.26.01.00.4
202348550121271751748851.3161.294.164.529.52.16.11.00.2

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
33.238.722.917.26.33118.4

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 65)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 87 Kevin Brown 2004 4.43
2 86 Derek Lowe 2012 5.55
3 84 Jose Contreras 2011 3.86
4 84 Andy Pettitte 2011 0.00 DNP
5 81 Hoyt Wilhelm 1962 2.81 DNP
6 81 Jamie Moyer 2002 3.47
7 80 Roger Clemens 2002 4.70
8 79 Allie Reynolds 1956 0.00 DNP
9 75 Warren Spahn 1960 3.83
10 74 Greg Maddux 2005 4.48
11 74 Rick Reuschel 1988 3.20
12 73 Tommy John 1982 4.14
13 72 Ellis Kinder 1954 3.75
14 72 Bob Tewksbury 2000 0.00 DNP
15 72 Marv Grissom 1957 4.42
16 71 Miguel Batista 2010 3.92
17 71 Gaylord Perry 1978 3.28
18 70 Bob Gibson 1975 5.45 DNP
19 70 Joe Niekro 1984 3.73
20 70 Mike Mussina 2008 3.82
21 70 Darren Oliver 2010 2.92
22 69 Phil Niekro 1978 3.47
23 68 Dennis Martinez 1993 4.41
24 68 Don Sutton 1984 4.36
25 68 Paul Byrd 2010 0.00 DNP
26 68 LaTroy Hawkins 2012 4.29
27 67 David Weathers 2009 4.21
28 67 Larry Andersen 1992 3.60
29 66 Bob Wickman 2008 0.00 DNP
30 66 Charlie Hough 1987 5.02
31 66 Dizzy Trout 1954 0.00 DNP
32 66 Trever Miller 2012 0.00 DNP
33 66 Todd Jones 2007 4.26
34 65 Brian Shouse 2008 3.33
35 65 Tom Candiotti 1997 4.00
36 65 Jon Lieber 2009 0.00 DNP
37 65 Gene Garber 1987 4.73
38 65 Rudy May 1984 0.00 DNP
39 65 Early Wynn 1959 3.73
40 65 Jack Morris 1994 6.11
41 64 Stu Miller 1967 3.32
42 64 Chris Hammond 2005 3.99
43 64 Sal Maglie 1956 3.08
44 64 Elmer Dessens 2010 2.68
45 63 Nolan Ryan 1986 3.64
46 63 Greg Harris 1995 3.35
47 63 Ron Villone 2009 4.62
48 63 Tom Burgmeier 1983 3.09
49 63 Trevor Hoffman 2007 3.45
50 63 Mike Myers 2008 0.00 DNP
51 62 Brendan Donnelly 2011 0.00 DNP
52 62 David Wells 2002 4.32
53 62 Larry Jackson 1970 0.00 DNP
54 62 Ryan Franklin 2012 0.00 DNP
55 62 Arthur Rhodes 2009 2.70
56 62 John Franco 2000 3.88
57 62 Virgil Trucks 1956 4.20
58 62 Chuck Finley 2002 4.58
59 62 Geoff Zahn 1985 4.62
60 61 Jason Isringhausen 2012 4.34
61 61 Al Worthington 1968 3.07
62 61 Kenny Rogers 2004 4.97
63 61 Bartolo Colon 2012 3.66
64 61 Al Leiter 2005 6.58
65 60 Matt Herges 2009 3.63
66 60 Jason Grimsley 2007 0.00 DNP
67 60 Tom Gordon 2007 4.72
68 60 Ted Power 1994 0.00 DNP
69 60 Mike Cuellar 1976 5.30
70 59 Dennis Lamp 1992 5.14
71 59 Hector Carrasco 2009 0.00 DNP
72 59 Takashi Saito 2009 2.59
73 59 Orel Hershiser 1998 4.68
74 58 Rick Honeycutt 1993 3.89
75 58 Billy Wagner 2011 0.00 DNP
76 58 Brian Moehler 2011 0.00 DNP
77 58 Rollie Fingers 1986 0.00 DNP
78 57 Ramon Ortiz 2012 0.00 DNP
79 57 Buddy Groom 2005 4.83
80 57 Steve Reed 2004 3.95
81 57 Tim Worrell 2007 0.00 DNP
82 57 Mike Timlin 2005 2.58
83 57 Jim Bunning 1971 5.89
84 57 Jim Kaat 1978 4.30
85 57 Nelson Figueroa 2013 0.00 DNP
86 57 Troy Percival 2009 6.35
87 57 Jim Perry 1975 6.58 DNP
88 56 Guillermo Mota 2013 0.00 DNP
89 56 Mike Marshall 1982 0.00 DNP
90 56 Kent Tekulve 1986 2.86
91 56 Bobby Shantz 1965 0.00 DNP
92 56 Terry Leach 1993 2.81
93 56 Terry Mulholland 2002 6.38
94 56 David Cone 2002 0.00 DNP
95 56 Bill Campbell 1988 0.00 DNP
96 56 Gary Lavelle 1988 0.00 DNP
97 55 Whitey Ford 1968 0.00 DNP
98 55 Steve Carlton 1984 4.09
99 55 Alan Embree 2009 6.93
100 55 Al Brazle 1953 4.22

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 The list of things most observers wouldn’t question about Carpenter is a long one: toughness, fortitude, leadership, pitching acumen, and, of course, height. All were on display last fall when he worked his way back from surgery that removed a rib and neck muscles to help restore normal nerve function to his shoulder, managing to take the mound down the stretch and in the playoffs. Whether he should have done so, however, is a separate question. Carpenter was clearly not right, wriggling through 5 2/3 scoreless innings on guts alone during an NLDS win before losing two games in the NLCS without working into the fifth inning. A healthy Carpenter has always been a productive Carpenter, and the club hopes a full winter of rest will help its co-ace return to form. At some point in the near future, though, Carpenter’s body will betray him for the last time, and no amount of Granite State grit and guile will help him get big leaguers out.
2012 Already a St. Louis hero, Carpenter pitched himself flat into Cardinal legend in October. His year started slowly, as he was the victim of poor run support, a shaky bullpen, and his own hand, allowing more hits per nine innings than he did in any season since 2002. By mid-June, Carp carried an unsightly 1-7 record and a 4.47 ERA. But he delivered a second half on par with his 2005 Cy Young performance, walking just 24 while striking out 95 in 108 1/3 innings over 15 starts. Along the way, he helped spark the Cards’ improbable wild-card run with an August team meeting. Then, for good measure, he won two winner-take-all games in the postseason. PECOTA suggests that his age and heavy 2011 workload do not bode well for the future. But it’s hard not to think the Cardinals got a bargain in September when Carpenter signed a two-year, $21 million extension.
2011 Carpenter spent last year on the positive side of his career’s “dominant/injured” polarity, tallying 200 innings pitched for the first time in four years and once again making an argument to be considered the Cardinals’ co-ace. Carpenter has traditionally been able to post ERAs far better than his SIERAs, with 2009’s 3.36 SIERA well higher than his unrepeatable 2.24 ERA. It was a good predictor of 2010’s 3.22 ERA, however, and given his 3.78 SIERA last year, it’s reasonable to expect a continued gradual loss of effectiveness in 2011. That’s nitpicking, though. The fact that another year of health and effectiveness may make his $15-million option in 2012 something to be considered is an eventuality that few would have imagined possible just two years ago.
2010 How good was Carpenter's comeback? In the 55 years covered by Retrosheet, it's no surprise that Bob Gibson's '68 is the all-time franchise high in Support-Neutral Winning Percentage at .732; SNWP is BP's metric for how likely a team is to win a game the man starts. Third in Cards history was John Tudor's '85 season, at .670. And nestled between them? Carpenter's '09, coming in at .673. Gibson won the Cy Young, Tudor didn't, and Carpenter already has one for '05, when his SNWP was .640, which ranks seventh in team history (behind the '69 seasons of Gibson and Steve Carlton, and the '67 surprise from Nellie Briles). All of which is the long way round towards saying Carpenter's place in team history deserves ranking among its all-time greats, and the story isn't even finished yet. He's only guaranteed two more years (2012 is a club option), but after last season's exploits, another bit of greatness or another disappearance onto the DL seem to be the poles he operates from, with little chance of anything in between.
2009 Carpenter made his first rehab start on July 20, almost exactly a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but that didn't mark an end to his injury troubles, as he left his third start for the Cardinals with what was later diagnosed as a shoulder strain. He returned in early September to make a lone relief appearance, but had extreme difficulty recovering from that outing and was shut down a couple of weeks later with "nerve irritation" in the shoulder. Carpenter had ulnar nerve transposition surgery in November—that's on his elbow, not the shoulder; they're hoping that the damaged shoulder nerve will improve through rest and rehab. Carpenter was scheduled to begin a throwing program in January, but his days as a top gun might well be over. He's going to be paid like an ace over the next three seasons regardless, with St. Louis on the hook for $44.5 million.
2008 Hey, here's an idea: don't give a pitcher with a sketchy health record what amounts to a three-year contract extension for $50 million that doesn't kick in for two more years. Leapin' lizards, there's 400 innings to be navigated! Giving Carpenter's a five-year contract was a ridiculous idea in December 2006, and looked worse when the righty blew out his elbow just six innings into it. He didn't have Tommy John surgery until July and will miss most of the 2008 season. The contract leaves the Cardinals spending tens of millions of dollars they would not have had to spend if they had just waited.
2007 PECOTA likes him, it really likes him. Carpenter`s top comps include three Hall of Famers and Esteban Loaiza--just to keep it real. One misconception that probably hurt him in the Cy Young voting last year was that his 2006 wasn`t nearly as good as his 2005, but aside from the drop from 21-5 to 15-8 in won-loss record, they were fairly comparable efforts. He rebounded well from the heaviest workload of his career in 2005, though he did have a quick DL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He was unstoppable at home, posting a 1.81 ERA in St. Louis.; the downside of that dominance was an untidy 4.70 ERA on the road, where he was more vulnerable to giving up the longball. In early December, the Cards signed Carpenter to a five-year, $65-million contract extension. That`s a long time to be on the hook for any pitcher, particularly one already into his thirties, but at least St. Louis is starting with one at the top of his game, if not the game.
2006 There haven`t been many pitchers to enjoy this level of success after missing a year with a shoulder injury-the labrum remains the final frontier of sports medicine. Carpenter was nothing short of magnificent all year, providing the Cardinals with the staff ace they needed to run roughshod over the NL Central. If there`s something to worry about going into 2006, it`s the combination of his previous ailments--biceps, elbow, back, labrum--and the 260-plus innings he pitched in 2005. If he`s healthy, few pitchers in the league are likely to be better.
2005 Carpenter was one of the game's most pleasant surprise in 2004, coming off a pair of shoulder surgeries. Despite finishing with the fewest innings of any Cardinal rotation member, Carpenter led the staff in VORP, and he also ranked fifth in the NL in K/BB ratio. His health concerns aren't going anywhere (nerve irritation in his arm snuffed out the last month-and-a-half of his season), but he still figures to be a bargain in 2005.
2003 More nagging arm problems kept Carpenter from following up on a promising 2001 campaign. This time shoulder pain landed him on the disabled list three times before finally being diagnosed as a torn labrum. The tear was relatively minor and he should be back on the mound by mid-season. The Jays believe their 1993 first round pick could still emerge as a frontline pitcher and hoped to ink him to a minor league contract. Seeking a fresh start, Carpenter instead signed for the major league minimum with St. Louis, where he may thrive working with Dave Duncan.
2002 There were many positives about Carpenter’s season last year, but the biggest was that he threw pain-free and didn’t miss a turn. Carpenter went Ankiel for half a dozen starts in late July and early August, allowing 36 runs in 30 innings while losing control of all his pitches. He then pulled it together and finished strong. Carpenter has #1 starter stuff and is a good candidate to chop another half a run off his ERA as long as his head doesn’t interfere.
2001 The positives in Chris Carpenter's season are, 1) it wasn't as bad as it looked--Skydome played like Coors Light last year--and 2) Roy Halladay's tribute to the end of Steve Carlton's career deflected attention from Carpenter. The smart money is on injury: Carpenter had surgery on his right elbow at the end of 1999 and experienced some pain in the spring. He pitched better at the end of the season after spending time in the bullpen, so maybe five months of rest will have an even stronger effect. Rotoheads, he could be a bargain in your league.
2000 His mistreatment at the hands of Tim Johnson haunted the Jays well after Johnson’s dismissal, as Carpenter missed most of last June with a sore elbow. Fregosi wasn’t particularly gentle with him, either, as he averaged 110 pitches per start before the DL stint. Carpenter has the build, the arm and the repertoire to be one of the best starters in the league.
1999 Bounced from the rotation after two starts to make way for Erik Hanson, the Jays had wanted to leave Carpenter in the pen for as long as possible. By the end of May, they decided Carpenter was already effectively starting since Hanson usually needed relief in the fourth inning. Note to Johnson: keep him away from Texas. They've hammered him to the tune of 24 runs allowed in 17 2/3 innings over four starts.
1998 Carpenter pitched well down the stretch after a brief, disastrous May callup. The 13 starts he got at the major league level should serve him well this year as the Jays’ #4 starter. A big guy, he doesn’t have the strikeout rates you’d like to see, but he gets high marks for a wicked curveball and the ol’ rouge and lipstick.
1997 Toronto’s #1 pick in the ’93 draft. Scouts drool about his makeup as much as his sinking fastball and power curve. He’s extremely raw, but he’s the best pitching prospect in the organization, and may surface in Toronto sometime in ’97. Pitched well in the AFL.
1996  Carpenter was a high draft pick and came out of high school. This is the typical Blue Jay draft: big, high school pitcher. Considered a good prospect and has made some good strides forward. Considering his age, you have to like him.

BP Articles

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BP Unfiltered: The Cardinals' Flickering Magic LanternRussell A. Carleton2014-10-08
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2009-02-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Chris Carpenter will make ____ starts for the cardinals in 2009.
(Jack Bauer from Washington)
27 (Joe Sheehan)
2008-07-29 16:00:00 (link to chat)are you taking injury questions? if so, here's one!! What is the 2009 outlook for a 35 year old Chris Carpenter? odds he gets back to 90% of his peak form?
(makewayhomer from Boston)
80%? He made a HUGE leap in command from his first rehab start to second and command is the biggest issue post-TJ.

BTW, I heard the term "Tommy John graduate" today. Stupidest term I've heard in weeks. (Will Carroll)
2008-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Will - what exactly did happen with Prior? Some of us are having an argument and can't remember/find enough of the details. I seem to remember that he had some undiagnosed structural damage, while others seem to think that it was just 'normal wear and tear that everyone pitches through', thus solidifying the argument that Prior was a wuss. What was the real story?
(Jeff Haack from Madison)
He had cuff and labrum tears that were corrected surgically in early 07. They were significant, but not massive. Very comparable, I'm told, to Chris Carpenter in ... 01? 02? (Will Carroll)
2008-03-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Mike, My DL spot is empty. Any suggestions on guys to scoop up and stick there? (Not sure it matters, but I'm in a 10 teamer vanilla.)
(akachazz from DC)
don't push it but feel free to roll the dice and make the cut when a guy you do want to keep gets hurt. Chris Carpenter? Don't over think it since you are in a ten teamer anyway. (Mike Siano)
2008-03-11 12:00:00 (link to chat)I'm sure you're hearing this from everyone...but what are you seeing with Pujols' value in light of all the surgery talk? I'm in a 10-team 5x5 league that keeps 2 players per team, and I'm sure that Pujols won't be kept in that league. Given that, how far do you let him go before you give it a shot?
(stevedevries from Boston, MA)
Got into a good discussion about this with the Fantasy 411 guys and Will Carroll. I still see Pujols as a late-first, early-second pick. It really comes down to your risk tolerance.

The critical factor is the Cards' performance. They probably can't win anything this year, but you could make a case for 2009. So there's not much reason for Pujols to put that season at risk once we know 2008 is a dead issue.

So Pujols' playing time is as much tied to Chris Carpenter's comeback, and Rick Ankiel's development, and Colby Rasmus' playing time, as his own elbow. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-02-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)G'Day! I, the greatest still-living vocalist of Australian Rock, wants to know what to expect out of Francisco Liriano and Chris Carpenter this year. If only that nice boy from INXS were still alive.
(Angry Anderson from Perth, AU)
Lots of questions about Liriano, so I'll try to address that here...

Carpenter won't be back prior to the All-Star Break. I'd pencil him in for 10-15 starts, with increasing responsibility in each one, and a season that's nothing particularly special.

Liriano? All the health reports I've heard are positive, but still also hear things about his mechanics that worry me. I don't think I'm sufficiently expert to evaluate the risk that his delivery poses. If he's healthy, I expect him to be devastating, perhaps after a few bumpy starts as he gets his sea legs back. (Gary Huckabay)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2014, Chris Carpenter threw 10,882 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2008 and 2012, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason. In 2012, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph), Cutter (87mph) and Sinker (91mph), also mixing in a Curve (75mph). He also rarely threw a Change (85mph).