Biographical

Portrait of Blake Snell

Blake Snell PRays

Rays Player Cards | Rays Team Audit | Rays Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 21)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
73.0 5.84 1.78 58 4 7 0 -1.0
Birth Date12-4-1992
Height6' 4"
Weight180 lbs
Age21 years, 10 months, 21 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
2010
2011
2012
2013
-1.02014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2011 RAY Rk 11 8 26.3 3.41 123 .264 .243 .315 .335 .256 .390 85 5.0 0.5 5.0 0.5
2012 PRI Rk 11 11 47.3 4.67 114 .218 .248 .322 .371 .252 .270 104 8.9 0.9 8.9 0.9
2013 BGR A 23 23 99.0 5.28 88 .281 .253 .324 .372 .258 .318 103 6.4 0.7 6.4 0.7
2014 BGR A 8 8 40.3 4.40 98 .208 .249 .312 .366 .257 .253 95 2.7 0.3 2.7 0.3
2014 PCH A+ 16 16 75.3 4.00 113 .252 .257 .324 .365 .255 .325 99 11.1 1.1 11.1 1.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2011 RAY Rk 1 2 0 11 8 26.3 30 11 26 0 53% .390 10.3 3.8 0.0 8.9 1.56 3.08 5.0 0.5
2012 PRI Rk 5 1 0 11 11 47.3 34 17 53 4 55% .270 6.5 3.2 0.8 10.1 1.08 2.09 8.9 0.9
2013 BGR A 4 9 0 23 23 99.0 90 73 106 8 58% .318 8.2 6.6 0.7 9.6 1.65 4.27 6.4 0.7
2014 PCH A+ 5 6 0 16 16 75.3 69 37 77 1 54% .325 8.2 4.4 0.1 9.2 1.41 3.94 11.1 1.1
2014 BGR A 3 2 0 8 8 40.3 26 19 42 1 69% .253 5.8 4.2 0.2 9.4 1.12 1.79 2.7 0.3

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 5.8 7.1 0 24 24 95.8 80 53 76 10 .257 1.39 4.25 4.62 5.0 0.5
80o 5 7 0 22 22 87.7 80 53 69 10 .274 1.52 4.77 5.18 -0.9 -0.1
70o 4.4 7 0 20 20 82.0 80 53 65 10 .286 1.61 5.16 5.61 -4.7 -0.5
60o 4 6.9 0 19 19 77.3 79 52 61 10 .296 1.70 5.50 5.98 -7.4 -0.8
50o 3.6 6.8 0 18 18 73.0 78 52 58 10 .306 1.78 5.83 6.34 -9.6 -1.0
40o 3.2 6.8 0 17 17 68.9 77 51 54 10 .316 1.86 6.17 6.7 -11.5 -1.2
30o 2.8 6.6 0 16 16 64.5 76 50 51 9 .327 1.96 6.54 7.1 -13.2 -1.3
20o 2.4 6.5 0 15 15 59.6 74 49 47 9 .339 2.08 6.98 7.59 -14.8 -1.5
10o 1.8 6.2 0 13 13 53.0 72 47 42 9 .357 2.25 7.63 8.29 -16.3 -1.7
Weighted Mean3.66.70181872.376515710.3031.765.776.27-9.0-0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20152269027271611581041511951.3011.625.155.608.85.88.41.1-1.4
20162369027271581481071481851.2941.614.875.298.46.18.41.0-0.9
20172469027271641641061481951.3031.645.055.499.05.88.11.0-1.3
2018257802828169158981561851.2931.514.444.828.45.28.31.0-0.1
2019266802525150146861321851.2961.554.745.158.85.27.91.1-0.6
2020276802626154145861431751.2931.504.434.818.55.08.31.0-0.0
2021286802626154145851411751.2931.494.394.778.55.08.21.00.0
2022296802626153145831391751.2931.494.374.758.54.98.21.00.1
2023306802626151144801331751.2921.484.394.778.64.87.91.00.0

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
0.32.70.22.65.18.926.2

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 89)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 95 Robert Fish 2009 0.00 DNP
2 94 Dellin Betances 2009 0.00 DNP
3 94 Enny Romero 2012 0.00 DNP
4 93 Craig Italiano 2008 0.00 DNP
5 93 David Bromberg 2009 0.00 DNP
6 93 Kasey Kiker 2009 0.00 DNP
7 92 Johnny Cueto 2007 0.00 DNP
8 92 Gio Gonzalez 2007 0.00 DNP
9 92 Ismael Guillon 2013 0.00 DNP
10 91 Travis Wood 2008 0.00 DNP
11 91 Jordan Norberto 2008 0.00 DNP
12 91 Roman Mendez 2012 0.00 DNP
13 91 Neil Ramirez 2010 0.00 DNP
14 90 Matt Magill 2011 0.00 DNP
15 90 Jose Escalona 2007 0.00 DNP
16 90 Christian Friedrich 2009 0.00 DNP
17 90 Kyle Ginley 2008 0.00 DNP
18 90 Austin Brice 2013 0.00 DNP
19 90 Mitch Atkins 2007 0.00 DNP
20 90 Adys Portillo 2013 0.00 DNP
21 90 Kyle Lobstein 2011 0.00 DNP
22 89 Scott Elbert 2007 0.00 DNP
23 89 Omar Poveda 2009 0.00 DNP
24 89 Carlos Melo 2012 0.00 DNP
25 89 Aaron King 2010 0.00 DNP
26 89 Edwin Escobar 2013 0.00 DNP
27 89 Anthony Swarzak 2007 0.00 DNP
28 89 Paul Demny 2011 0.00 DNP
29 89 Joseph Cruz 2010 0.00 DNP
30 89 Edgar Olmos 2011 0.00 DNP
31 89 Gustavo Gomez 2012 0.00 DNP
32 89 Kelvin De La Cruz 2010 0.00 DNP
33 89 Randall Delgado 2011 3.09
34 89 Homer Bailey 2007 6.35
35 89 Jeff Ferrell 2012 0.00 DNP
36 89 Luke Jackson 2013 0.00 DNP
37 89 Josue Carreno 2012 0.00 DNP
38 89 Tommy Hanson 2008 0.00 DNP
39 88 Franklin Morales 2007 3.43
40 88 Steve Johnson 2009 0.00 DNP
41 88 J.C. Sulbaran 2011 0.00 DNP
42 88 Tony Butler 2009 0.00 DNP
43 88 Jeremy Jeffress 2009 0.00 DNP
44 88 Brad Hand 2011 4.80
45 88 Carlos Perez 2013 0.00 DNP
46 88 Jon Niese 2008 7.07
47 88 Wilmer Font 2011 0.00 DNP
48 88 Alex Colome 2010 0.00 DNP
49 88 Eric Hurley 2007 0.00 DNP
50 88 Dimasther Delgado 2010 0.00 DNP
51 88 Nick Tropeano 2012 0.00 DNP
52 88 Alex Torres 2009 0.00 DNP
53 88 Jeurys Familia 2011 0.00 DNP
54 88 Santo Frias 2009 0.00 DNP
55 88 Chuck Lofgren 2007 0.00 DNP
56 88 Mat Latos 2009 5.15
57 88 David Baker 2012 0.00 DNP
58 87 Yao-Lin Wang 2012 0.00 DNP
59 87 Daniel Corcino 2012 0.00 DNP
60 87 Ethan Martin 2010 0.00 DNP
61 87 Martire Garcia 2011 0.00 DNP
62 87 Yordano Ventura 2012 0.00 DNP
63 87 Jose Arias 2012 0.00 DNP
64 87 Wily Peralta 2010 0.00 DNP
65 87 Liam Hendriks 2010 0.00 DNP
66 87 Carlos Pimentel 2011 0.00 DNP
67 87 Casey Crosby 2010 0.00 DNP
68 87 Bryan Mitchell 2012 0.00 DNP
69 87 Javier Avendano 2012 0.00 DNP
70 87 Crawford Simmons 2012 0.00 DNP
71 87 Brent Fisher 2009 0.00 DNP
72 87 Dan Straily 2010 0.00 DNP
73 87 Sean Nolin 2011 0.00 DNP
74 87 Chris Jones 2010 0.00 DNP
75 87 Tyler Robertson 2009 0.00 DNP
76 87 Jairo Heredia 2011 0.00 DNP
77 87 Will Lamb 2012 0.00 DNP
78 86 Chad James 2012 0.00 DNP
79 86 Fabio Martinez Mesa 2011 0.00 DNP
80 86 Timothy Melville 2011 0.00 DNP
81 86 Fabian Williamson 2010 0.00 DNP
82 86 Myles Jaye 2013 0.00 DNP
83 86 Juri Perez 2012 0.00 DNP
84 86 Cesar Vargas 2013 0.00 DNP
85 86 Daniel Tuttle 2012 0.00 DNP
86 86 Su-Min Jung 2011 0.00 DNP
87 86 Nick Kingham 2013 0.00 DNP
88 86 Jake Odorizzi 2011 0.00 DNP
89 86 Ethan Stewart 2012 0.00 DNP
90 86 Ruben Mejia 2013 0.00 DNP
91 86 Jarret Martin 2011 0.00 DNP
92 85 Brandon Erbe 2009 0.00 DNP
93 85 Jarred Cosart 2011 0.00 DNP
94 85 Felix Doubront 2009 0.00 DNP
95 85 Jean Carlos Gil 2012 0.00 DNP
96 85 Felipe Rivero 2013 0.00 DNP
97 85 Evan Rutckyj 2013 0.00 DNP
98 85 Blake King 2008 0.00 DNP
99 85 Hector Rondon 2009 0.00 DNP
100 85 Austin Kirk 2011 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Yet another 2011 supplemental first-rounder (and yet another Washingtonian), Snell originally projected lower in the draft, but after he failed to qualify academically for the University of Washington, the Rays gambled on his signability, and won. Snell swims quietly in the teeming tank of Rays lefties because he doesn't throw that hard and because he's the youngest of them. But he improved all of his numbers in his sophomore pro season, finishing second in the Appalachian League in ERA, striking out more than a batter per inning and getting a lot of grounders with his down-in-the-zone fastball. A command rather than power arm, he'll need to develop secondary pitches in order to climb the ladder.

BP Articles

Blake Snell is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: 2014 Organizational RankingsJason Parks2014-02-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher ProspectsBen Carsley2014-02-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher ProspectsCraig Goldstein2014-02-26
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2013-12-20
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Sunday, August 18Zach Mortimer2013-08-19
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, May 29Zach Mortimer2013-05-30
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, May 8Zach Mortimer2013-05-09
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: April 29BP Prospect Staff2013-04-29
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, April 10Zach Mortimer2013-04-11
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: 2013 Organizational RankingsJason Parks2013-03-29
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2013-02-12
This article requires BP Premium accessFall Instructional League Report: Rays/TwinsChris Mellen2012-10-02
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of August 6Kevin Goldstein2012-08-07
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday Morning Ten PackKevin Goldstein2012-07-23
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of June 19Kevin Goldstein2012-06-20
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Tampa Bay Rays Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2012-02-20


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2013-09-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who has higher upside betwwen Blake Snell and Henry Owens?
(Mellens from Boston)
I will take Owens. I think he has a better feel for pitching and the top two pitches will end up being more impressive than Snell. (Mark Anderson)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Two questions in one: Have you put eyed on Blake Snell this year? any concern about his big walk rates? Hunter Dozier's plate discipline looks good so far in the Pioneer league. What do you expect as he moves up to A ball? Also does his defense profile anywhere but 3b?
(AnthopoJays from Houston )
I haven't seen Snell personally, but I talked to a scout who really believed in him. Snell is still working on mechanics and the command should improve going forward. Dozier is putting up solid numbers in the Pioneer League, but from the video I've seen it looks like he's a 3B going forward. (Zach Mortimer)
2013-06-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are any of these arm prospects going to make an impact in 2 years for fantasy owners?: Roberto Osuna, Lucas Giolito, Heath Hembree, Matt Wisler, or Blake Snell?
(Hector from Santa Ana)
I'd bet on Wisler of that group. Hembree should be a major leaguer, but we'll see if he's doing anything of fantasy import. (Paul Sporer)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Bret, I play in a fairly deep competitive keeper league 16 team with a 20 man minor system. I am always looking for the edge in future top prospects as they carry quite the value in mid season trades etc. In 2011 I was able to grab a pre breakout Taveras and Bogaerts, since that year I am always looking for prospects who look to really make that jump from back end or outside the top 100 to future top 30 stud. I was wondering if you had some names to watch in A and Low A, that could make these leaps, particularly position players. Alen Hanson and Polanco are already picked up, Adalberto Mondesi is spoken for as well, trying to stay ahead of my competition.
(Brandon from Toronto)
If you want a few off the radar names, how about Zach Eflin and Dilson Herrera. And if you don't need to dig quite that deep, check out Dorssys Paulino, Blake Snell, Jeimer Candelario and Joe Ross. (Bret Sayre)


BP Roundtables

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