Biographical

Portrait of Nate Karns

Nate Karns PRays

Rays Player Cards | Rays Team Audit | Rays Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 26)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
113.7 4.04 1.36 113 7 7 0 0.6
Birth Date11-25-1987
Height6' 3"
Weight230 lbs
Age26 years, 10 months, 28 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2012
-0.42013
0.52014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2013 WAS 25 3 3 12.0 12.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 0 0 61 17 11 10 5 35 6 6 1 11 7.50 8.35 7.62 -3.1 -0.4
2014 TBA 26 2 2 12.0 12.0 0.0 1 1 0 0 1 0 49 7 6 6 3 17 4 4 2 13 4.50 5.74 6.34 -0.8 -0.1
Career5524.024.00.012001011024171685210103246.007.057.03-3.9-0.4

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2011 AUB A- 8 8 36.7 5.38 86 .246 .246 .331 .342 .259 .277 101 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1
2011 NAT Rk 5 5 18.7 2.81 148 .096 .245 .328 .345 .249 .065 103 5.9 0.6 5.9 0.6
2012 HAG A 11 5 44.3 3.80 124 .177 .245 .321 .364 .252 .237 103 11.1 1.1 11.1 1.1
2012 POT A+ 13 13 71.7 3.01 137 .190 .256 .323 .384 .262 .287 99 19.4 1.9 19.4 1.9
2013 WAS MLB 3 3 12.0 7.62 18 .373 .237 .296 .386 .254 .316 104 -2.8 -0.3 -3.1 -0.4
2013 HAR AA 23 23 132.7 3.87 110 .247 .253 .326 .386 .268 .289 98 20.1 2.2 18.0 1.7
2014 TBA MLB 2 2 12.0 6.34 53 .261 .253 .307 .406 .259 .148 104 -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -0.1
2014 DUR AAA 27 27 145.3 5.00 96 .250 .262 .331 .398 .251 .323 102 10.0 1.0 10.0 1.0

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2011 NAT Rk 0 0 0 5 5 18.7 2 6 26 0 48% .065 1.0 2.9 0.0 12.5 0.43 0.00 5.9 0.6
2011 AUB A- 3 2 0 8 8 36.7 27 27 33 1 47% .277 6.6 6.6 0.2 8.1 1.47 3.44 0.9 0.1
2012 POT A+ 8 4 0 13 13 71.7 47 26 87 1 53% .287 5.9 3.3 0.1 10.9 1.02 2.26 19.4 1.9
2012 HAG A 3 0 2 11 5 44.3 23 21 61 1 50% .237 4.7 4.3 0.2 12.4 0.99 2.03 11.1 1.1
2013 WAS MLB 0 1 0 3 3 12.0 17 6 11 5 37% .316 12.8 4.5 3.8 8.2 1.92 7.50 -3.1 -0.4
2013 HAR AA 10 6 0 23 23 132.7 109 48 155 14 47% .289 7.4 3.3 0.9 10.5 1.18 3.26 18.0 1.7
2014 DUR AAA 9 9 0 27 27 145.3 142 62 153 16 47% .323 8.8 3.8 1.0 9.5 1.40 5.08 10.0 1.0
2014 TBA MLB 1 1 0 2 2 12.0 7 4 13 3 47% .148 5.2 3.0 2.2 9.8 0.92 4.50 -0.8 -0.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2013 246 0.4837 0.4472 0.7818 0.6639 0.2441 0.8101 0.7097 0.2182
2014 205 0.4585 0.4488 0.7826 0.5957 0.3243 0.8571 0.6667 0.2174
Career4510.47220.44790.78220.63290.28060.83150.69020.2178

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2010-06-21 2010-08-29 Minors 69 0 Right Shoulder Surgery -
2010-06-21 2010-08-28 Minors 68 0 - Not Disclosed - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 TBA $
2013 TBA $

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 15 d1 year (2014)

Details
  • 1 year (2014). Re-signed by Tampa Bay 3/2/14.
  • 1 year (2013). Contract purchased by Washington 11/20/12. Re-signed by Washington 3/6/13.
  • Drafted by Washington 2009 (12-352) (Texas Tech).

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 2.6 2.1 0 8 8 56.1 42 21 56 6 .252 1.11 2.90 3.15 8.6 0.9
80o 2.6 2.3 0 8 8 50.4 40 20 50 6 .265 1.19 3.29 3.57 6.5 0.7
70o 2.5 2.4 0 8 8 46.4 39 19 46 5 .275 1.25 3.57 3.89 4.9 0.5
60o 2.4 2.5 0 8 8 43.1 38 19 43 5 .283 1.31 3.82 4.16 3.5 0.4
50o 2.4 2.6 0 8 8 40.0 36 18 40 5 .291 1.36 4.06 4.41 2.4 0.2
40o 2.3 2.7 0 8 8 37.0 35 17 37 5 .299 1.41 4.30 4.68 1.1 0.1
30o 2.3 2.8 0 8 8 33.9 33 16 34 5 .307 1.47 4.56 4.96 -0.2 -0.0
20o 2.2 2.9 0 8 8 30.3 31 15 30 4 .317 1.54 4.87 5.3 -1.6 -0.2
10o 2.1 3.1 0 8 8 25.5 28 14 25 4 .331 1.64 5.31 5.77 -3.6 -0.4
Weighted Mean2.42.608839.63618395.2891.354.034.382.50.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
23% 34% 16% 39% 56%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20152791003030192178781852446.2931.333.994.348.33.68.71.10.9
2016288902727164153661632146.2951.344.094.458.43.68.91.20.6
2017297702323133121531301646.2901.313.874.218.23.68.81.10.9
2018307702323138123561371746.2871.293.784.108.03.68.91.11.1
2019317702323136121511321646.2871.263.673.998.03.48.71.11.3
2020326602020120110461141546.2871.303.794.128.23.48.51.11.0
2021336601919112102421051446.2871.293.794.128.23.48.41.10.9
20223465018181059640991346.2871.303.794.128.23.48.51.10.8
2023355501616978736921246.2861.273.714.038.13.48.61.10.9

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
4.85.80.83.50.4215.4

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 83)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 90 Thomas Diamond 2009 0.00 DNP
2 90 Collin McHugh 2013 10.04
3 89 Dustin Richardson 2010 4.15
4 89 Armando Galarraga 2008 4.18
5 89 Ramon A. Ramirez 2009 3.65
6 89 J.A. Happ 2009 2.98
7 88 Dan Meyer 2008 9.11
8 88 Joel Carreno 2013 0.00 DNP
9 87 Alan Horne 2009 0.00 DNP
10 87 Matt Maloney 2010 3.05
11 86 Duane Below 2012 4.86
12 86 Scott Gorgen 2013 0.00 DNP
13 86 Mike Fiers 2011 0.00
14 86 Brad Mills 2011 9.82
15 86 David Purcey 2008 5.68
16 86 Austin Hyatt 2012 0.00 DNP
17 86 Tyler Norrick 2010 0.00 DNP
18 85 Austin Adams 2013 0.00 DNP
19 85 P.J. Walters 2011 7.20
20 85 Bruce Billings 2012 0.00 DNP
21 85 Jason Windsor 2009 0.00 DNP
22 85 Marco Estrada 2010 10.32
23 85 Anthony Capra 2013 0.00 DNP
24 85 Donnie Veal 2011 0.00 DNP
25 85 Francisco Rosario 2007 5.47
26 85 Matt Klinker 2011 0.00 DNP
27 84 Erik Davis 2013 3.12
28 84 Francisco Cruceta 2008 6.17
29 84 Dustin Nippert 2007 5.96
30 84 Deunte Heath 2012 4.50
31 84 Sam LeCure 2010 4.50
32 84 Jeremy Hefner 2012 5.19
33 83 Ryan Ketchner 2008 0.00 DNP
34 83 Andrew Brown 2007 4.54
35 83 Randy Wells 2009 3.65
36 83 Josh Zeid 2013 3.90
37 83 Alex Wilson 2013 5.20
38 83 Matt Wright 2008 0.00 DNP
39 83 Kevin Hart 2009 6.11
40 83 Corey Kluber 2012 6.29
41 83 Philip Humber 2009 8.00
42 83 Jack Egbert 2009 27.00
43 83 Jon Huber 2008 0.00 DNP
44 82 Yohan Pino 2010 0.00 DNP
45 82 Red Patterson 2013 0.00 DNP
46 82 Henry Sosa 2012 0.00 DNP
47 82 Cesar Valdez 2011 0.00 DNP
48 82 Wilkin De La Rosa 2011 0.00 DNP
49 82 Jeremy Horst 2012 2.30
50 82 Ryan Verdugo 2013 0.00 DNP
51 82 Eric Berger 2012 0.00 DNP
52 82 Rob Musgrave 2012 0.00 DNP
53 82 Tony Watson 2011 3.95
54 82 Michael Madsen 2009 0.00 DNP
55 82 Mike Dunn 2011 4.00
56 82 Chris Narveson 2008 0.00 DNP
57 82 Daniel Haigwood 2010 0.00 DNP
58 82 Jhonny Nunez 2012 0.00 DNP
59 81 Hector Ambriz 2010 5.77
60 81 Brandon Moore 2012 0.00 DNP
61 81 Matt Peterson 2008 0.00 DNP
62 81 Steven Wright 2011 0.00 DNP
63 81 Carlos Fisher 2009 4.30
64 81 Jesse English 2011 0.00 DNP
65 81 Justin Thomas 2010 6.23
66 81 Anthony Varvaro 2011 2.62
67 81 Nick Schmidt 2012 0.00 DNP
68 81 Jose Rosario 2012 0.00 DNP
69 81 Adrian Alaniz 2010 0.00 DNP
70 81 John Maine 2007 4.24
71 81 Cory Luebke 2011 3.48
72 81 Sergio Escalona 2011 3.25
73 81 Steven Shell 2009 5.40
74 81 Chris Saenz 2008 0.00 DNP
75 81 Phil Irwin 2013 9.64
76 81 Jose Veras 2007 5.79
77 80 Angel Guzman 2008 5.59
78 80 Garrett Mock 2009 6.41
79 80 Victor Garate 2011 0.00 DNP
80 80 Kendy Batista 2008 0.00 DNP
81 80 Brayan Villarreal 2013 20.77
82 80 Luis Ramirez 2008 0.00 DNP
83 80 Adam Ottavino 2012 4.78
84 80 Nick Pereira 2009 0.00 DNP
85 80 Wynn Pelzer 2012 0.00 DNP
86 80 Travis Banwart 2012 0.00 DNP
87 80 Matt Wright 2013 0.00 DNP
88 80 Bradley Holt 2013 0.00 DNP
89 80 Cole McCurry 2012 0.00 DNP
90 80 Brad Meyers 2012 0.00 DNP
91 80 Guillermo Moscoso 2010 27.00
92 80 Pat Misch 2008 5.85
93 80 Brian Rogers 2009 0.00 DNP
94 80 Stephen Marek 2010 0.00 DNP
95 80 Blake Hawksworth 2009 2.25
96 80 Arnie Munoz 2008 0.00 DNP
97 80 Paul Kometani 2009 0.00 DNP
98 80 Devon Lowery 2009 0.00 DNP
99 80 Greg Wilborn 2013 0.00 DNP
100 79 Ryan Mullins 2010 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .370 .452 .815 .422
11 vs R (Multi) .269 .345 .500 .314
18 Split (Multi) .101 .107 .315 .108
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .370 .452 .815 .422
31 vs R (2013) .269 .345 .500 .314
38 Split (2013) .101 .107 .315 .108
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Though Nathan Karns was used as a starter in High-A last year, his above-average fastball and plus curveball could project better in a bullpen role; if Karns is to remain in the rotation, where he has a mid-rotation ceiling, he'll need to refine his changeup and avoid injury despite a jerky delivery.

BP Articles

Nate Karns is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Rays to the TopR.J. Anderson2014-09-16
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDeep Impact: Week 25Ben Carsley2014-09-16
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 15, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-15
Daily League Strategy: Picking on Young PitchersPaul Sporer2014-09-12
This is Not Your Father's Baseball Road Trip: Day 13: Winston-Salem, Durham, and HomeJordan Shusterman2014-06-09
This is Not Your Father's Baseball Road Trip: Day 13: Winston-Salem, Durham, and HomeJake Mintz2014-06-09
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: A Moran and a Wolf Walk Into a BarCraig Goldstein2014-04-16
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: A Moran and a Wolf Walk Into a BarR.J. Anderson2014-04-16
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Competition in CoorsDaniel Rathman2014-03-13
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersIan Lefkowitz2014-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersJared Weiss2014-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersBen Murphy2014-02-28
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: 2014 Organizational RankingsJason Parks2014-02-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher ProspectsCraig Goldstein2014-02-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher ProspectsBen Carsley2014-02-26
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Choosing the Brave LifeR.J. Anderson2014-02-17
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Catching Up with Catcher NewsDaniel Rathman2014-02-13
This article requires BP Premium accessEyewitness Accounts: August 16, 2013Jason Parks2013-08-16
This article requires BP Premium accessEyewitness Accounts: August 16, 2013BP Prospect Staff2013-08-16
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Tuesday, June 25Zach Mortimer2013-06-26
This article requires BP Premium accessThe Minors: First Half RecapJason Parks2013-06-20
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 12, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-12
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 9, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-10
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Stash List: The Mystery of Super Two StatusBret Sayre2013-06-04
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 3, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-03
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 29, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-29
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: The Halo EffectDaniel Rathman2013-05-28
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 28, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Stash List: Don Mattingly's Post-RealismBret Sayre2013-05-28
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 20th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-20
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of May 10-12Zach Mortimer2013-05-13
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of April 19-April 21Zach Mortimer2013-04-22
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of April 12-14Zach Mortimer2013-04-15
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: 2013 Organizational RankingsJason Parks2013-03-29
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Monday Morning Ten PackKevin Goldstein2012-07-23


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Nate Karns anything other than a back of the rotation or bullpen arm?
(Mark from IA)
Not for me, no. I think he's a bit of a swingman that can fill the back of a rotation on the right team. (Mark Anderson)
2014-03-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Chris Archer working hard on change-up, Jake Odorizzi learning how to throw Alex Cobb's split-finger change-up, Nate Karns improving on his change-up and Jake McGee adding a change-up w/ a possibility of a curveball to his repertoire. Which one of these guys will benefit most from adding the pitch that some people are obsessed/fixated/fascinated with? If Odorizzi does indeed learn and hone "The Thing"(split-change), would this take him from a bottom-of-rotation to a 2/3 guy because he'll finally have an out-pitch?
(jlarsen from Chicagoland Area)
a killer changeup can move the needle, sure. But some times a guy is just hoping to get a half-way decent one. In theory any big league pitcher who 'learns awesome new pitch' is going to get better, change cutter knucklecurve etc, but it feels to me like Odorizzi and Archer are going to benefit the most, since they are already potential quality starters and this could put them over the top. Karns could be helped out by having a better chance to stick in the rotation, but that's not as shiny as having a chacne to be a front-line guy. (Harry Pavlidis)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Nate Karns or Jesse Hahn?
(Danny from Boston)
Looks like the details of that Rays-Nats swap are coming in, so we've got a few Qs on that front.

This is a fun one because the Rays just traded Jesse Hahn (and Alex Torres) for Logan Forsythe and a grab bag of prospects a month ago, and now they've traded Jose Lobaton (and a grab bag of prospects) for Nick Karns.

Hahn and Karns are similar in a few senses: both were college arms, both have injury histories, both have two good pitches, and so on. Even their outlooks are a lot alike: possible MOR arm or impact bullpen guy. I guess it comes down to the medicals, and without knowing which is better, I'll just call them evenish. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of the Nate Karns - Jose Lobaton deal? Seems like the Rays did better, but the Nats getting Felipe Rivero might help their case a bit
(Charlie from Bethesda, MD)
We covered this earlier in the chat but it's been a while so:

It seems like a fair deal. Lobaton was out of options and the Rays had two superior catchers they made multi-year commitments toward this winter. They obviously wanted Karns, but the Nationals didn't consider that a fair swap, so the Rays added two interesting, but limited parts to make it work. Both sides should be satisfied with the deal. (R.J. Anderson)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.

 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Nate Karns has thrown 451 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2013 and 2014, all of them occuring in the MLB Regular Season. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (94mph) and Curve (84mph), also mixing in a Sinker (93mph) and Change (86mph).