Biographical

Portrait of Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly PRays

Rays Player Cards | Rays Team Audit | Rays Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 25)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
119.3 4.52 1.45 66 6 6 0 -0.1
Birth Date10-14-1988
Height6' 2"
Weight190 lbs
Age26 years, 0 months, 8 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2012
2013
-0.12014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2010 BGR A 5 2 16.3 6.91 46 .290 .264 .341 .398 .266 .275 98 -2.1 -0.2 -2.1 -0.2
2010 HUD A- 7 1 21.3 3.80 102 .213 .245 .323 .348 .258 .262 89 2.0 0.2 2.0 0.2
2011 PCH A+ 25 23 129.0 5.67 80 .250 .266 .335 .394 .258 .271 99 -3.2 -0.3 -3.2 -0.3
2012 MNT AA 32 9 88.3 4.36 104 .247 .252 .334 .378 .261 .294 103 7.4 0.8 7.4 0.8
2013 MNT AA 13 12 73.7 4.71 89 .232 .244 .319 .358 .256 .231 99 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.1
2013 DUR AAA 15 14 84.7 4.93 105 .227 .257 .323 .383 .252 .281 114 6.3 0.6 6.3 0.6
2014 DUR AAA 28 15 114.0 4.86 100 .241 .265 .333 .400 .254 .298 104 11.9 1.2 11.9 1.2

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2010 BGR A 0 1 0 5 2 16.3 15 8 10 1 44% .275 8.3 4.4 0.6 5.5 1.41 7.18 -2.1 -0.2
2010 HUD A- 1 1 0 7 1 21.3 16 5 19 0 64% .262 6.8 2.1 0.0 8.0 0.99 2.11 2.0 0.2
2011 PCH A+ 8 7 0 25 23 129.0 117 51 70 6 50% .271 8.2 3.6 0.4 4.9 1.30 3.28 -3.2 -0.3
2012 MNT AA 8 3 0 32 9 88.3 84 28 61 4 42% .294 8.6 2.9 0.4 6.2 1.27 3.57 7.4 0.8
2013 MNT AA 5 6 0 13 12 73.7 54 31 41 3 43% .231 6.6 3.8 0.4 5.0 1.15 4.15 1.0 0.1
2013 DUR AAA 8 4 0 15 14 84.7 74 34 70 4 42% .281 7.9 3.6 0.4 7.4 1.28 3.19 6.3 0.6
2014 DUR AAA 9 4 0 28 15 114.0 107 37 108 10 49% .298 8.4 2.9 0.8 8.5 1.26 2.76 11.9 1.2

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2011-05-14 2011-05-23 Minors 9 0 - Not Disclosed - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 7.4 6.4 0.6 33 20 138.3 118 49 76 12 .245 1.21 3.49 3.79 16.5 1.7
80o 6.8 6.5 0.5 31 19 131.6 120 50 72 12 .257 1.29 3.84 4.17 9.7 1.0
70o 6.4 6.5 0.5 30 19 126.8 121 50 70 12 .265 1.35 4.09 4.45 5.2 0.5
60o 6.1 6.5 0.5 29 18 122.8 122 50 67 13 .273 1.40 4.31 4.69 1.7 0.2
50o 5.8 6.5 0.4 28 18 119.1 122 51 65 13 .280 1.45 4.52 4.92 -1.4 -0.1
40o 5.5 6.5 0.4 27 17 115.5 123 51 63 13 .287 1.50 4.74 5.15 -4.2 -0.4
30o 5.2 6.5 0.4 26 17 111.7 123 51 61 13 .294 1.56 4.97 5.4 -7.1 -0.7
20o 4.8 6.4 0.4 25 16 107.3 123 51 59 13 .303 1.62 5.24 5.7 -10.1 -1.0
10o 4.3 6.4 0.3 24 15 101.3 123 51 56 13 .315 1.72 5.63 6.11 -13.7 -1.4
Weighted Mean5.86.40.42818119.1121506513.2781.444.504.89-1.0-0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
18% 20% 4% 21% 24%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2015264402312989940691042.2931.424.404.789.13.76.40.90.1
201627440201084853657942.2871.444.444.839.13.96.11.00.0
2017284402111918932641042.2801.323.984.328.83.26.31.00.6
2018294402011868531581042.2811.354.134.488.93.36.11.10.4
201930330181077752755942.2821.324.014.368.83.26.41.10.4
20203133017972722650842.2821.354.084.439.03.26.21.00.3
20213233016868682346842.2811.344.084.439.03.06.11.10.3
20223333015865642146842.2791.313.914.258.92.96.41.10.5
20233433014861612141742.2801.344.054.419.03.16.01.00.3

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
2.31.80.111.51.36.6

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 94 Brooks Brown 2010 0.00 DNP
2 91 D.J. Mitchell 2012 3.86
3 90 Daniel Rosenbaum 2013 0.00 DNP
4 90 Robert Mosebach 2010 0.00 DNP
5 89 Joe Gardner 2013 0.00 DNP
6 89 Charlie Haeger 2009 3.32
7 86 Ryan Cook 2012 2.21
8 86 Charlie Leesman 2012 0.00 DNP
9 85 Rafael Dolis 2013 3.60
10 85 Kyle Cofield 2012 0.00 DNP
11 85 Clayton Tanner 2013 0.00 DNP
12 85 Rob Scahill 2012 1.04
13 83 Clayton Richard 2009 4.76
14 83 Adam Warren 2013 3.39
15 83 Kevin Pucetas 2010 0.00 DNP
16 83 Zach Phillips 2012 6.00
17 82 Justin Cassel 2010 0.00 DNP
18 82 Nathan Baker 2013 0.00 DNP
19 82 Chris Heston 2013 0.00 DNP
20 82 Mark Rogers 2011 0.00 DNP
21 81 Doug Mathis 2008 8.06
22 81 Kevin Mulvey 2010 6.00
23 81 Frankie De La Cruz 2009 5.40
24 80 Connor Graham 2011 0.00 DNP
25 80 Josh Stinson 2013 3.71
26 80 Josh Geer 2008 2.67
27 80 Kyle Parker 2010 0.00 DNP
28 80 Brad James 2009 0.00 DNP
29 80 Logan Ondrusek 2010 3.84
30 79 Brandon Hynick 2010 0.00 DNP
31 79 Gregory Infante 2013 0.00 DNP
32 79 Ivan Nova 2012 5.23
33 79 Joe Kelly 2013 3.05
34 79 Elvin Ramirez 2013 0.00 DNP
35 79 Fabio Castro 2010 0.00 DNP
36 79 Kevin Thomas 2012 0.00 DNP
37 78 Josh Rupe 2008 5.14
38 78 Ryan Tucker 2012 0.00 DNP
39 78 Carlos Vasquez 2008 0.00 DNP
40 78 Dallas Keuchel 2013 5.62
41 78 Kyle Winters 2012 0.00 DNP
42 78 Mitchell Boggs 2009 4.34
43 78 Mitch Talbot 2009 0.00 DNP
44 78 Jesus Sanchez 2013 0.00 DNP
45 78 Stephen Fife 2012 2.70
46 78 Brandon League 2008 2.45
47 78 Andrew Werner 2012 5.80
48 78 Manny Parra 2008 4.93
49 77 Kyle Weiland 2012 6.62
50 77 Shane Dyer 2013 0.00 DNP
51 77 Chris Sorce 2013 0.00 DNP
52 77 Chorye Spoone 2011 0.00 DNP
53 77 Eric Berger 2011 0.00 DNP
54 77 Justin Wilson 2013 2.08
55 77 Brad Meyers 2011 0.00 DNP
56 77 Mike Jones 2008 0.00 DNP
57 77 Justin Berg 2009 0.75
58 77 Juan Gutierrez 2009 4.06
59 77 Graham Godfrey 2010 0.00 DNP
60 76 Aaron Pribanic 2012 0.00 DNP
61 76 Brett Brach 2013 0.00 DNP
62 76 Wade Miley 2012 3.65
63 76 Nick Greenwood 2013 0.00 DNP
64 76 Juan Morillo 2009 22.50
65 76 Jake Arrieta 2011 5.28
66 76 Thad Weber 2010 0.00 DNP
67 76 Carlos Rosa 2010 4.50
68 76 David Phelps 2012 3.43
69 76 Richard Bleier 2012 0.00 DNP
70 76 Charles Shirek 2011 0.00 DNP
71 76 Zach Jackson 2008 5.86
72 76 Nathan Adcock 2013 0.00 DNP
73 76 Aaron Poreda 2012 0.00 DNP
74 76 Josh Collmenter 2011 3.56
75 76 Enrique Gonzalez 2008 10.80
76 76 Alberto Arias 2009 3.94
77 76 Armando Gabino 2009 17.18
78 76 Andrew Cashner 2012 4.47
79 76 Blake Maxwell 2010 0.00 DNP
80 75 Lucas Harrell 2010 6.75
81 75 Evan Anundsen 2013 0.00 DNP
82 75 Carlton Smith 2011 0.00 DNP
83 75 Esmailin Caridad 2009 1.86
84 75 Tim Dillard 2009 12.46
85 75 Casey Coleman 2013 0.00 DNP
86 75 Brad Bergesen 2011 6.50
87 75 James Houser 2010 20.25
88 75 Dylan Axelrod 2011 2.89
89 75 Darren Byrd 2012 0.00 DNP
90 75 Tyler Lumsden 2008 0.00 DNP
91 75 Josh Outman 2010 0.00 DNP
92 75 Frank Herrmann 2009 0.00 DNP
93 75 Eddie Kunz 2011 0.00 DNP
94 75 Jeremy Sowers 2008 6.25
95 75 Bryan Morris 2012 3.60
96 74 Jason Hirsh 2007 5.05
97 74 Waldis Joaquin 2012 0.00 DNP
98 74 Jose De Paula 2013 0.00 DNP
99 74 Jeff Manship 2010 6.21
100 74 Justin Germano 2008 6.39

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).

BP Articles

Merrill Kelly is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
Overthinking It: The Rays' Changeup RevolutionBen Lindbergh2013-06-26


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