Biographical

Portrait of Aaron Crow

Aaron Crow PRoyals

Royals Player Cards | Royals Team Audit | Royals Depth Chart

2014 Rest-of-Season Projections (seasonal age 27)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
0.3 4.40 1.43 0 0 0 0 0.0
Birth Date11-10-1986
Height6' 3"
Weight195 lbs
Age27 years, 11 months, 13 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
0.92011
0.72012
0.02013
-0.92014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2011 KCA 24 57 0 62.0 0.0 62.0 4 4 0 7 0 0 266 55 20 19 8 89 31 29 0 65 2.76 4.14 4.10 8.2 0.9
2012 KCA 25 73 0 64.7 0.0 64.7 3 1 2 6 0 0 260 54 27 25 4 71 22 20 1 65 3.48 2.91 3.95 7.0 0.7
2013 KCA 26 57 0 48.0 0.0 48.0 7 5 1 3 0 0 210 49 19 18 6 77 22 19 2 44 3.38 4.37 4.44 0.2 0.0
2014 KCA 27 67 0 59.0 0.0 59.0 6 1 3 4 0 0 244 52 32 27 10 93 24 23 0 34 4.12 5.43 6.56 -8.6 -0.9
Career2540233.70.0233.7201162000980210988928330999132083.434.174.736.90.7

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2009 gcr Wnt 4 4 15.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .312 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2010 WIL A+ 7 7 44.0 4.81 101 .258 .263 .338 .382 .250 .378 108 3.7 0.4 3.7 0.4
2010 NWA AA 22 22 119.3 6.43 65 .271 .256 .331 .383 .259 .315 106 -8.2 -0.8 -8.2 -0.8
2011 KCA MLB 57 0 62.0 4.10 116 .247 .260 .323 .413 .263 .290 110 8.2 0.9 8.2 0.9
2012 KCA MLB 73 0 64.7 3.95 113 .219 .259 .321 .422 .264 .298 103 7.0 0.7 7.0 0.7
2013 KCA MLB 57 0 48.0 4.44 97 .285 .254 .319 .401 .267 .316 100 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0
2014 KCA MLB 67 0 59.0 6.56 44 .266 .254 .311 .392 .260 .239 101 -8.6 -0.9 -8.6 -0.9
2014 NWA AA 2 0 3.0 8.76 2 .266 .246 .306 .357 .252 .250 104 -0.9 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2009 gcr Wnt 0 2 0 4 4 15.3 17 2 12 2 0% .312 10.0 1.2 1.2 7.1 1.24 5.88 0.0 0.0
2010 WIL A+ 2 3 0 7 7 44.0 51 6 53 6 54% .378 10.4 1.2 1.2 10.8 1.30 5.93 3.7 0.4
2010 NWA AA 7 7 0 22 22 119.3 130 59 90 13 64% .315 9.8 4.5 1.0 6.8 1.58 5.66 -8.2 -0.8
2011 KCA MLB 4 4 0 57 0 62.0 55 31 65 8 53% .290 8.0 4.5 1.2 9.4 1.39 2.76 8.2 0.9
2012 KCA MLB 3 1 2 73 0 64.7 54 22 65 4 53% .298 7.5 3.1 0.6 9.0 1.18 3.48 7.0 0.7
2013 KCA MLB 7 5 1 57 0 48.0 49 22 44 6 51% .316 9.2 4.1 1.1 8.2 1.48 3.38 0.2 0.0
2014 KCA MLB 6 1 3 67 0 59.0 52 24 34 10 45% .239 7.9 3.7 1.5 5.2 1.29 4.12 -8.6 -0.9
2014 NWA AA 1 0 0 2 0 3.0 3 1 1 1 56% .250 9.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.33 3.00 -0.9 -0.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2011 1014 0.4596 0.4379 0.7230 0.6094 0.2920 0.8592 0.4813 0.2770
2012 953 0.4848 0.4533 0.6991 0.5996 0.3157 0.8773 0.3806 0.3009
2013 795 0.4818 0.4610 0.7650 0.6475 0.2864 0.8952 0.4915 0.2350
2014 930 0.5075 0.4280 0.8266 0.5996 0.2511 0.9329 0.5652 0.1709
Career36920.4830.44440.7520.61260.28660.89020.47860.2474

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2011-07-11 2011-07-14 DTD 3 0 - General Medical Illness - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2015 KCA $
2014 KCA $1,475,000
2013 KCA $1,280,000
2012 KCA $1,600,000
2011 KCA $1,400,000
2010 KCA $900,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
4 yrPrevious$5,180,000
2011Current$1,475,000
5 yrPvs + Cur$6,655,000
5 yrTotal$6,655,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
3 y 0 dHendricks Sports1 year/$1.475M (2014)

Details
  • 1 year/$1.475M (2014). Re-signed by Kansas City (avoided arbitration, $1.7M-$1.28M). Award bonus: $50,000 for All-Star selection.
  • 1 year/$1.28M (2013). Re-signed by Kansas City 3/2/13.
  • 3 years/$3M (2010-12). Signed Major League contract with Kansas City 9/18/09. $1.5M signing bonus. Estimated salaries: 10:$0.4M, 11:$0.5M, 12:$0.6M. Salaries may increase based on when Crow is promoted to Major Leagues, with total value of contract increasing to as much as $4.5M.
  • Drafted by Kansas City 2009 (1-12) (Fort Worth of independent American Association). Drafted by Washington 2008 (1-9) (Missouri). Did not sign.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 0 0 1 0 0 81.8 68 28 72 8 .265 1.17 3.18 3.45 0.0 0.0
80o 0 0 1 0 0 75.2 67 27 66 8 .280 1.26 3.58 3.89 0.0 0.0
70o 0 0 1 0 0 70.6 67 27 62 8 .290 1.33 3.88 4.22 0.0 0.0
60o 0 0 1 0 0 66.8 66 27 58 8 .299 1.38 4.14 4.5 0.0 0.0
50o 0 0 1 0 0 63.3 65 26 55 7 .307 1.44 4.39 4.77 0.0 0.0
40o 0 0 1 0 0 59.9 64 26 52 7 .316 1.50 4.64 5.04 0.0 0.0
30o 0 0 1 0 0 56.3 63 25 49 7 .325 1.56 4.91 5.34 0.0 0.0
20o 0 0 1 0 0 52.2 61 25 46 7 .336 1.64 5.23 5.69 0.0 0.0
10o 0 0 1 0 0 46.7 58 24 41 7 .350 1.76 5.70 6.19 0.0 0.0
Weighted Mean0010062.76426557.3051.434.354.730.00.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
33% 60% 14% 14% 83%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20152831152055522152653.2991.333.824.158.53.48.51.00.5
20162921143045481740653.3101.434.574.979.53.47.91.2-0.0
20173021141044421740653.2951.354.054.408.73.58.21.20.3
20183121144046451641653.2941.323.974.318.73.18.01.20.3
20193221137039401436553.3111.384.174.549.23.28.31.20.2
20203321137039391436453.3071.364.004.349.03.28.30.90.3
20213421135037371332453.3051.364.084.449.13.27.91.00.2
20223521132034351231453.3061.373.994.349.23.18.11.00.2
20233621130032331128453.3071.384.054.419.33.17.91.10.2

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
14.520.518.621.14.716.179.4

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 80)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 87 Robinson Tejeda 2009 3.67
2 87 Marc Rzepczynski 2013 3.82
3 87 Wesley Wright 2012 3.61
4 87 Fernando Nieve 2010 6.00
5 85 C.J. Wilson 2008 6.80
6 85 Antonio Bastardo 2013 2.53
7 85 Rafael Soriano 2007 3.25
8 84 Bobby Parnell 2012 3.15
9 84 Angel Guzman 2009 2.95
10 84 Charlie Morton 2011 4.30
11 84 Felipe Paulino 2011 4.78
12 84 Kevin Correia 2008 6.55
13 83 Wil Ledezma 2008 4.47
14 83 Jorge De La Rosa 2008 5.33
15 83 Armando Galarraga 2009 5.76
16 83 Juan Oviedo 2009 4.33
17 83 John Maine 2008 4.50
18 83 Andrew Miller 2012 3.57
19 82 Seth McClung 2008 4.02
20 82 Denny Bautista 2010 3.74
21 82 Junichi Tazawa 2013 3.29
22 82 Edgar Gonzalez 2010 0.00 DNP
23 82 Scott Elbert 2013 0.00 DNP
24 82 J.P. Howell 2010 0.00 DNP
25 82 Garrett Olson 2011 2.08
26 82 Jose Mijares 2012 2.88
27 82 Neal Cotts 2007 4.86
28 81 David Aardsma 2009 2.90
29 81 Ryan Madson 2008 3.16
30 81 Tyler Clippard 2012 3.96
31 81 Nick Masset 2009 2.61
32 81 Jose Capellan 2008 4.50
33 81 Dana Eveland 2011 3.03
34 81 Jeff Karstens 2010 5.28
35 81 Juan Gutierrez 2011 8.35
36 81 Jason Vargas 2010 4.02
37 81 Jesse Chavez 2011 11.74
38 80 Dillon Gee 2013 3.80
39 80 Blaine Boyer 2009 5.93
40 80 Jason Hammel 2010 4.91
41 80 A.J. Murray 2009 0.00 DNP
42 80 Rafael Perez 2009 7.50
43 80 Chris Britton 2010 0.00 DNP
44 80 Jake Arrieta 2013 4.90
45 80 Yhency Brazoban 2007 21.60
46 80 J.A. Happ 2010 3.81
47 80 Shawn Kelley 2011 0.00
48 80 Luke Hochevar 2011 5.00
49 79 Carlos Villanueva 2011 4.12
50 79 Franklyn German 2007 0.00 DNP
51 79 Francisco Rosario 2008 0.00 DNP
52 79 James McDonald 2012 4.47
53 79 Brian Wilson 2009 3.36
54 79 Taylor Buchholz 2009 0.00 DNP
55 79 Jason Berken 2011 5.55
56 79 Brandon Kintzler 2012 3.78
57 79 Carlos Fisher 2010 5.64
58 79 Fu-Te Ni 2010 7.43
59 78 Jensen Lewis 2011 0.00 DNP
60 78 Jose Ascanio 2012 0.00 DNP
61 78 David Purcey 2009 6.56
62 78 Hong-Chih Kuo 2009 3.00
63 78 Zach Miner 2009 4.78
64 78 Gustavo Chacin 2008 0.00 DNP
65 78 Chin-hui Tsao 2008 0.00 DNP
66 78 Kevin Hart 2010 0.00 DNP
67 78 Esmil Rogers 2013 5.03
68 78 Logan Kensing 2010 0.00 DNP
69 78 Mitchell Boggs 2011 4.01
70 78 Joel Hanrahan 2009 5.62
71 78 Andrew Brown 2008 3.34
72 78 Tyler Johnson 2008 0.00 DNP
73 78 Mike Wood 2007 6.57
74 78 Jerry Blevins 2011 4.45
75 78 Rich Thompson 2012 12.00
76 78 Lance Cormier 2008 4.52
77 78 Billy Traber 2007 4.99
78 77 Brandon Lyon 2007 3.04
79 77 Brian Burres 2008 6.18
80 77 Jerome Williams 2009 0.00 DNP
81 77 David Hernandez 2012 2.77
82 77 Shaun Marcum 2009 0.00 DNP
83 77 Todd Coffey 2008 4.39
84 77 Sergio Mitre 2008 0.00 DNP
85 77 Boone Logan 2012 3.90
86 77 Sergio Santos 2011 3.55
87 77 Jeff Samardzija 2012 4.07
88 77 Marcus McBeth 2008 0.00 DNP
89 77 Scott Baker 2009 4.46
90 77 Ryan Wagner 2010 0.00 DNP
91 77 Joe Saunders 2008 3.73
92 77 Jonathan Albaladejo 2010 3.97
93 77 Ryan Rowland-Smith 2010 7.74
94 77 Jim Johnson 2010 3.76
95 77 Ryan Webb 2013 3.36
96 77 Sean Gallagher 2013 0.00 DNP
97 77 Jess Todd 2013 0.00 DNP
98 77 Ronald Belisario 2010 5.04
99 77 Fernando Salas 2012 4.45
100 77 Anthony Swarzak 2013 3.19

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .252 .329 .450 .285
11 vs R (Multi) .253 .330 .323 .235
18 Split (Multi) -.001 -.001 .128 .050
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .264 .340 .506 .301
31 vs R (2013) .277 .361 .351 .260
38 Split (2013) -.012 -.021 .155 .042
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 With a 95-mph fastball and a wicked slider, Crow enjoyed a consistent season coming out of the pen for the Royals. In many ways, heís an ideal reliever, possessing a high strikeout rate, solid control, and a sinking fastball that leads to a groundball rate over 50 percent. Crow was drafted as a starter, but moved to the bullpen when he struggled in the rotation in the minors. The Royals are always in the market for starting pitching, so itís natural to consider their right-hander. However, given his comfort and success in his current role, itís probably best for everyone if he sticks with short relief.
2012 After his first professional season (2010, Double-A), the Royals' top pick in the 2009 draft battled mechanical issues and was demoted to High-A. However, a strong spring meant Crow was a surprise addition to the Opening Day bullpen and he built an exceptional first half into a selection to the All-Star team as the Royals' lone representative. His fastball lives in the mid-90s and can approach 98 mph on occasion. His slider is a plus pitch with exceptional lateral movement. Shortly after the All-Star Game, it was revealed he had been dealing with a stiff shoulder and forearm tightness: he limped to the finish line with a 7.36 ERA over the final two months of the season. The poor finish doesnít discourage the Royals, who are going to give him a long look in the rotation this spring.
2011 No organization can have a perfect season down on the farm, and Crow represented one of Kansas City's few low notes in 2010. After choosing not to sign with the Nationals out of the 2008 draft, Crow got $3 million from the Royals the following year, but the layoff left considerable rust. Scouts see plenty of stuff in his arm, which still reaches the low-to-mid-90s with a sinking fastball, and his slider still features plenty of break, but an inability to throw strikes as he fought with his mechanics turned Crow into a one-pitch guy at times last year, with predictable results. He shouldn't be written off, but a move to the bullpen could be in order.
2010 Drafted by the Nationals with the ninth overall pick of the 2008 draft, Crow didn't sign and ended up going to the Royals in 2009 at 12th overall, losing some of the bonus money the Nats offered in the process, but gaining a major-league contract. In the year between the two selections he took some time off, pitching some indendent league ball in the spring, and his stuff was still good but not nearly as sharp as it had looked in college. Now a year older and a year further away from free agency, Crow is still a power arm with good velocity and a good slider. He'll be expected to move up quickly, and at his age he almost has to if he's going to make up for his lack of pro experience.

BP Articles

Aaron Crow is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessPlayoff Prospectus: AL Wild Card Game PreviewR.J. Anderson2014-09-30
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: September 15, 2014Daniel Rathman2014-09-15
This article requires BP Premium accessBaseball Therapy: How Billy Beane Built the RoyalsRussell A. Carleton2014-08-26
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: July 25, 2014Chris Mosch2014-07-25
Perfect Game Presents: The Baseball Draft: A 50-Year Retrospective, Part TwoAllan Simpson2014-06-09
This article requires BP Premium accessAn Agent's Take: When Post-Draft Negotiations Get StrainedJoshua Kusnick2014-06-06
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: You Must Learn ControlDaniel Rathman2014-04-09
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Relief PitchersIan Lefkowitz2014-03-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Relief PitchersJared Weiss2014-03-07
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Relief PitchersBen Murphy2014-03-07
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Extensions Afoot?Daniel Rathman2014-02-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: Kansas City RoyalsCraig Goldstein2013-11-25
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: Kansas City RoyalsPaul Sporer2013-11-25
BP Unfiltered: Rereading Nate Silver: 8. Converting the PitcherSam Miller2013-11-18
This article requires BP Premium accessRaising Aces: Bush League: Kyle ZimmerDoug Thorburn2013-11-01
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: An Ugly Outing for FelixDaniel Rathman2013-08-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: My American League PortfolioPaul Sporer2013-04-10
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: April 9, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-09
Fantasy Mailbag: A Trout/Cabrera Tandem?BP Fantasy Staff2013-04-05
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Tier Rankings: Relief PitchersPaul Singman2013-03-28
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Royally FlushedDaniel Rathman2013-03-14
On the Beat: Moore ProblemsJohn Perrotto2012-12-13
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-06-17 20:00:00 (link to chat)We in Canada have only been drafting Rule IV guys right after their June draft since 2009. That was the Dustin Ackley - Aaron Crow class in the American League. We've been drafting about 3 or 4 of them every June's first round ever since. It is too soon to say how many of them were a worthwhile pick. If Bryon Buxton turns out as good as expected that will make up for a long list of duds who didn't bring significant value. With your experience, can you quantify how worthwhile it has been to jump on these top picks right away?
(John Carter from T.O.)
Since so many of the superstars in Scoresheet are first acquired in the supplemental that follows the MLB rule IV draft, we advocate grabbing as many of those lottery tickets as possible. You can keep the superstars indefinitely, so you don't have to be successful too often for it to be worthwhile taking those chances with supplemental picks. In some leagues, it's the only way you're going to end up with a player of that caliber, like Strasburg, Harper, Longoria, Tulowitzki, etc. In almost leagues, it's a great way to build up your keepers. We once said that in general you should trade for keepers and draft for depth, and the ability to pick up these potential superstars in a supplemental draft is the most obvious exception to that particular phrase. (Scoresheet Chat with Ben, Jared, and Ian)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Aaron Crow has thrown 4,264 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (93mph) and Slider (83mph), also mixing in a Fourseam Fastball (93mph). He also rarely throws a Change (86mph).