Biographical

Portrait of Alexander Guerrero

Alexander Guerrero 2BDodgers

Dodgers Player Cards | Dodgers Team Audit | Dodgers Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 27)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
444 .240 15 51 52 6 .259 1.5
Birth Date11-20-1986
Height5' 10"
Weight205 lbs
Age27 years, 11 months, 5 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2012
2013
1.32014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2014 LAN 27 11 13 13 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 .077 .077 .077 .061 -2.2 -0.0 -0.2
Career11131301000106000000.077.077.077.061-2.2-0.0-0.2

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2014 LAN MLB 11 13 .061 .263 .332 .404 .271 .143 97 -2.4 0.3 0 -0.0 0.2 -2.2 -0.2 -2.2 -0.2
2014 RCU A+ 5 21 .358 .300 .365 .479 .289 .412 103 2.3 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 3.0 0.3 3.0 0.3
2014 ABQ AAA 65 258 .310 .281 .348 .445 .273 .351 109 14.7 7.7 -0.4 -4.1 1.5 22.3 1.8 22.3 1.8
2014 DOD Rk 7 29 .437 .257 .321 .355 .254 .333 96 5.7 1.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 6.0 0.5 6.0 0.5

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2014 ABQ AAA 258 38 80 14 5 15 49 10 44 4 0 .329 .364 .613 .284 .310 22.3 -4.1 1.8
2014 RCU A+ 21 3 7 4 1 0 2 2 2 0 0 .368 .429 .684 .316 .358 3.0 -0.2 0.3
2014 LAN MLB 13 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 .077 .077 .077 .000 .061 -2.2 -0.0 -0.2
2014 DOD Rk 29 6 8 1 0 2 6 3 5 0 0 .348 .414 .652 .304 .437 6.0 -0.4 0.5

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2014 41 0.3415 0.6829 0.5357 0.7857 0.6296 0.8182 0.3529 0.4643
Career410.34150.68290.53570.78570.62960.81820.35290.4643

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-05-21 - Minors - - - Head Laceration Ear From Bite with Teammate - -
2014-03-26 2014-04-12 Minors 17 0 - Trunk Strain Ribcage - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2017 LAN $7,500,000
2016 LAN $7,500,000
2015 LAN $6,500,000
2014 LAN $6,500,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
2011Current$6,500,000
3 yrFuture$21,500,000
4 yrTotal$28,000,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 0 dScott Boras4 years/$28M (2014-17)

Details
  • 4 years/$28M (2014-17). Signed Major League contract with LA Dodgers as a free agent from Cuba (via Haiti) 10/21/13. $10M signing bonus. 14:$4M, 15:$4M, 16:$5M, 17:$5M. Performance bonuses: $1M annually for 500-600 plate appearances. May not be optioned to minors without permission after 2014. May become Article XX(B) free agent after 2017 season.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 561 71 137 28 2 21 72 47 118 8 3 .271 .333 .457 .289 32.5 2B 0 3.5
80o 544 67 129 26 2 20 68 44 116 8 3 .260 .321 .438 .278 26.0 2B 0 2.8
70o 532 64 122 25 1 19 65 41 115 7 3 .252 .312 .425 .270 21.5 2B 0 2.3
60o 522 61 116 24 1 18 62 40 114 7 3 .245 .304 .414 .264 17.8 2B 0 1.9
50o 512 59 111 23 1 17 60 38 114 7 3 .239 .297 .403 .258 14.4 2B 0 1.6
40o 502 57 106 22 1 16 57 36 113 7 2 .233 .290 .393 .252 11.2 2B 0 1.2
30o 492 54 102 21 1 16 55 35 111 6 2 .226 .283 .381 .245 7.9 2B 0 0.9
20o 480 51 97 20 1 15 52 33 110 6 2 .219 .274 .369 .237 4.1 2B 0 0.5
10o 463 48 89 18 1 14 48 30 108 5 2 .208 .261 .351 .227 -0.7 2B 0 -0.1
Weighted Mean5145911223117603811473.240.299.405.25915.12B 01.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
3% 56% 5% 9% 98%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
2015284505296201145135976.231.293.383.2471.09.2-0.52.414.9-7.7
201629630751292412275491378.227.290.388.2471.110.0-0.53.214.9-7.7
2017303614174151124128825.221.282.376.2400.54.3-0.41.814.8-11.8
201831609711262411970481308.229.292.380.2461.08.9-0.62.814.9-8.3
201932634731282522072511368.221.287.374.2430.86.9-0.52.814.9-10.3
202033596671182211865461318.219.282.363.2370.33.2-0.52.514.9-13.7
202134607681222311967461388.219.279.364.2360.32.7-0.62.414.9-14.1
202235611691222211867461378.220.281.360.2350.21.9-0.62.314.9-14.7
202336635701222411969471478.209.270.352.229-0.2-1.8-0.62.214.9-18.4

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
47.94931.842.43728.7208.1

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 77)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 86 Neil Walker 2013 .278
2 84 Howie Kendrick 2011 .280
3 82 Jhonny Peralta 2009 .243
4 82 Kelly Johnson 2009 .246
5 81 Jorge Cantu 2009 .278
6 81 Stephen Drew 2010 .300
7 80 Jed Lowrie 2011 .247
8 80 Khalil Greene 2007 .272
9 80 Kevin Kouzmanoff 2009 .253
10 79 Ian Desmond 2013 .273
11 79 Chris Young 2011 .277
12 78 Chase Headley 2011 .291
13 78 Bobby Crosby 2007 .217
14 78 Franklin Gutierrez 2010 .251
15 78 Miguel Montero 2011 .284
16 78 Bobby Grich 1976 .304
17 78 Alex Gordon 2011 .303
18 78 Hank Blalock 2008 .267
19 78 Jeremy Hermida 2011 .245
20 78 Jim Lefebvre 1969 .265
21 77 Eric Chavez 2005 .283
22 77 Adam Lind 2011 .260
23 77 Dan Uggla 2007 .269
24 77 Pete Ward 1965 .268
25 77 Nick Hundley 2011 .310
26 77 Brandon Phillips 2008 .264
27 77 Marcus Giles 2005 .279
28 77 Kevin Mitchell 1989 .361
29 77 Chris Shelton 2007 .000 DNP
30 77 Chris Burke 2007 .224
31 76 Chad Tracy 2007 .270
32 76 Bobby Bonilla 1990 .299
33 76 Alex Rios 2008 .281
34 76 Trevor Plouffe 2013 .261
35 76 Edwin Encarnacion 2010 .264
36 76 Richie Hebner 1975 .264
37 76 Mark Teahen 2009 .250
38 76 Dave Hollins 1993 .285
39 76 Wilson Betemit 2009 .195
40 76 Ian Kinsler 2009 .273
41 76 Ryan Doumit 2008 .293
42 76 Felipe Lopez 2007 .238
43 76 Brian Anderson 2009 .227
44 76 Mitch Moreland 2013 .269
45 76 Jose Bautista 2008 .251
46 76 Rickie Weeks 2010 .302
47 76 Ron Santo 1967 .340
48 76 Billy Williams 1965 .336
49 76 Jeff Kent 1995 .279
50 76 Robinson Cano 2010 .299
51 76 Del Ennis 1952 .302
52 76 Martin Prado 2011 .252
53 75 Corey Hart 2009 .267
54 75 Geoff Blum 2000 .257
55 75 Asdrubal Cabrera 2013 .262
56 75 Luke Hughes 2012 .132
57 75 Don Baylor 1976 .275
58 75 Jorge Orta 1978 .282
59 75 Ernie Banks 1958 .344
60 75 Matt LaPorta 2012 .208
61 75 Bill Hall 2007 .247
62 75 John Buck 2008 .232
63 75 Glenn Davis 1988 .307
64 75 Johnny Callison 1966 .281
65 75 Dexter Fowler 2013 .265
66 75 Hector Luna 2007 .202
67 75 Brennan Boesch 2012 .235
68 75 John Milner 1977 .285
69 75 Bobby Higginson 1998 .285
70 75 Andruw Jones 2004 .281
71 75 Luis Aguayo 1986 .217
72 75 Gary Matthews 1978 .289
73 75 Chipper Jones 1999 .345
74 75 Rico Petrocelli 1970 .276
75 75 Curtis Granderson 2008 .296
76 75 Cal Ripken Jr. 1988 .313
77 74 Bill Melton 1973 .283
78 74 Danny Valencia 2012 .177
79 74 Cesar Cedeno 1978 .293
80 74 Scott Rolen 2002 .295
81 74 Robin Yount 1983 .327
82 74 Fred Lynn 1979 .336
83 74 Sean Rodriguez 2012 .225
84 74 Leon Wagner 1961 .296
85 74 Rico Carty 1967 .277
86 74 Mark Carreon 1991 .232
87 74 Jason Kubel 2009 .302
88 74 Chris Snyder 2008 .275
89 74 Rocco Baldelli 2009 .267
90 74 Austin Kearns 2007 .274
91 74 Larry Walker 1994 .327
92 74 J.D. Drew 2003 .295
93 74 Jayson Nix 2010 .237
94 74 Reggie Smith 1972 .309
95 74 Dusty Baker 1976 .234
96 74 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2012 .265
97 74 Nate McLouth 2009 .278
98 74 Puddin Head Jones 1953 .279
99 74 Richard Hidalgo 2002 .246
100 74 Roger Maris 1962 .302

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).

BP Articles

Alexander Guerrero is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: My Personal Scorecard: Part 2 - National LeagueMike Gianella2014-10-20
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The ReCall-UpsSam Miller2014-09-03
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The Migration of the BackupsSam Miller2014-07-29
The Week in Quotes: May 26-June 1Nick Wheatley-Schaller2014-06-02
The Week in Quotes: May 26-June 1Nick Bacarella2014-06-02
The Week in Quotes: May 26-June 1Chris Mosch2014-06-02
The Week in Quotes: May 26-June 1Morris Greenberg2014-06-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Stash List: Sixth EditionBret Sayre2014-05-20
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Stash List: Fifth EditionBret Sayre2014-05-13
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Stash List: Fourth EditionBret Sayre2014-05-06
This article requires BP Premium accessBaseball Therapy: The Viability of Burying a Bad BatRussell A. Carleton2014-03-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Auction Values: Third EditionMike Gianella2014-03-14
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Cardinals Keep Carpenter, Cost CertaintyR.J. Anderson2014-03-10
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Cardinals Keep Carpenter, Cost CertaintyBen Lindbergh2014-03-10
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: A Trio of Infield UpdatesDaniel Rathman2014-03-04
This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Why Every Team Needs Kendrys MoralesBen Lindbergh2014-02-27
BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft: Rounds 8-10Bret Sayre2014-02-05
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Second BasemenIan Lefkowitz2014-01-31
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Second BasemenJared Weiss2014-01-31
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Second BasemenBen Murphy2014-01-31
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 50 Second BasemenBret Sayre2014-01-30
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Three-Year Projections: Second BasemenBen Carsley2014-01-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Tier Rankings: Second BasemenCraig Goldstein2014-01-28
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2014-01-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: Los Angeles DodgersCraig Goldstein2014-01-22
BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft: Rounds 1-2Bret Sayre2014-01-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: The Top 50 2013 Signees for Dynasty DraftsBret Sayre2014-01-09
This article requires BP Premium accessRumor Roundup: Backup PlanningDaniel Rathman2013-11-08
The Lineup Card: 12 Items That Tell the Story of the 2013 SeasonBaseball Prospectus2013-11-07
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Le Freak, C'est ChicR.J. Anderson2013-10-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Brandon Phillips' Gradually Sudden DeclineCraig Goldstein2013-10-22
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 10, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-10
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 24, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-24


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)Does Dee Gordon keep the second base job or is he just on a hot streak?
(Scott from AZ)
I think that Alexander Guerrero could force himself into the starting lineup if his defense improves to a passable state, but that could take awhile, by which time I expect that Gordon will have turned back into a pumpkin. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-03-14 09:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Mike, love the position rankings and appreciate them coming out early this year. Since some have been out a while are there any rankings that you would really like to change based on something you've seen in the Spring (like an injury perhaps)? Thanks.
(DanDaMan from Sea Cliff)
Hi Dan.

I reflect the changes in my bid limits that I update every week (including today! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23036). Today, I moved Joakim Soria up and Neftali Feliz down and moved Alexander Guerrero down and Dee Gordon up. Kris Medlen is out while Ervin Santana is in in the National League. Check out the rankings for all the latest movers and shakers. (Mike Gianella)
2013-12-10 18:00:00 (link to chat)Soup starter: Matt Kemp to Cincy for Brandon Phillips. What needs to be added, and dare the Reds get bold and try Billy Hamilton at 2b, at least until Ludwick's deal is up, at which time they put Kemp in LF and BHam in CF?
(DF from Wilmington, NC)
I think the Dodgers would have to kick in some money to make this happen and even though their pockets are deep I think the goal in moving Matt Kemp is to try to save money, not add another long term contract in Brandon Phillips. I suspect that the Dodgers are more likely to move Andre Ethier than Kemp and aren't simply going move Kemp for salary relief. It also seems that the Dodgers are going to try Alexander Guerrero at the keystone and if they do bring in a 2B will bring in someone more "marginal" to compete for the job.

The Reds priority is going to be to make Billy Hamilton comfortable both at the plate and on the field so I think it's unlikely they move him to 2B. That doesn't mean it's impossible, but the club seems committed to keeping him in the outfield for now. (Mike Gianella)
2013-10-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)What kind of player could Alexander Guerrero be? What's his ceiling? Thanks!
(Brett from Kansas City)
Not sure, and not sure that anyone knows. For anyone who doesn't know, Guerrero is the Cuban player the Dodgers just signed to a four-year deal to play second base. He's played in Cuba, he's played well there, he's not that tall and he's kinda stocky. How will that translate to MLB? I don't know, and the Dodgers don't either. Obviously they think he can play the position defensively or they wouldn't have given him $28 million.

More significant, at least for this off-season, is what this means for Robinson Cano who has seemed like he'd be willing to sign with another team if the money was there. The Dodgers may have been the best chance for the money to be there. Maybe the Dodgers will still give Cano a go though, after all they have four high priced outfielders, so what's two high priced second basemen? More likely though, Cano is going to have to find his $300 million elsewhere, which maybe means New York. (Matthew Kory)
2013-10-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)If you're running the Dodgers, do you keep Mark Ellis around next season now they you've signed Alexander Guerrero?
(Josh from Wyoming)
Probably. But, if I'm the Dodgers, I probably have a higher opinion of Guerrero. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-09-12 18:00:00 (link to chat)What kind of seasons might you expect out of Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Alexander Guerrero next year? Have you come across any good comps?
(AnthopoJays from TX)
It's next to impossible to devise a comp for Cuban players with their American counterparts since we have so little information about these players when they come to the United States. With japanese players, for example, we have more information on statistics in their leagues and how players do when they come here by comparison so that we can make an educated guess. This still isn't the case with Cuban players because their society isn't open. All we usually have to go on are scouting reports, and while the reports are put together by top notch professionals who know their stuff, I'm an analyst, not a scout. All I can do is take the scouts at their word. Yasiel Puig exceeded expectations this year because of this variability, but this more often than not cuts the other way. Gonzalez could be anything from a #3 starter to a Quad A guy based on what I've read. Guerrero could eventually be a starter, but how good he'll be is an open question. I wish I could offer you more help, but I'd rather be honest and give you broad answers like these than steer you in the wrong direction. (Mike Gianella)


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