Biographical

Portrait of Norichika Aoki

Norichika Aoki RFRoyals

Royals Player Cards | Royals Team Audit | Royals Depth Chart

2014 Rest-of-Season Projections (seasonal age 32)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
4 .280 0 0 0 0 .263 0.0
Birth Date1-5-1982
Height5' 9"
Weight180 lbs
Age32 years, 9 months, 16 days
BatsL
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2.92012
1.62013
1.02014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2012 MIL 30 151 588 520 81 150 37 4 10 225 43 55 13 5 7 50 30 8 .288 .355 .433 .281 27.3 0.1 2.9
2013 MIL 31 155 674 597 80 171 20 3 8 221 55 40 11 3 8 37 20 12 .286 .356 .370 .269 15.9 -1.0 1.6
2014 KCA 32 132 549 491 63 140 22 6 1 177 43 49 6 1 8 43 17 8 .285 .349 .360 .267 16.6 -7.7 1.0
Career43818111608224461791319623141144309231306728.287.353.387.27259.8-8.65.5

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2012 MIL MLB 151 588 .281 .258 .319 .409 .262 .304 108 12.2 16.1 -4.8 0.1 1.5 27.3 2.9 27.3 2.9
2013 MIL MLB 155 674 .269 .251 .312 .392 .257 .295 106 6 17.7 -6.4 -1.0 -4.2 15.9 1.6 15.9 1.6
2014 KCA MLB 132 549 .267 .259 .318 .397 .264 .314 102 3.5 14.2 -5.4 -7.7 3.6 16.6 1.0 16.6 1.0
2014 NWA AA 3 11 .128 .249 .308 .375 .251 .111 105 -1.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -1.3 -0.2 -1.3 -0.2

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2012 MIL MLB 588 81 150 37 4 10 50 43 55 30 8 .288 .355 .433 .144 .281 27.3 0.1 2.9
2013 MIL MLB 674 80 171 20 3 8 37 55 40 20 12 .286 .356 .370 .084 .269 15.9 -1.0 1.6
2014 NWA AA 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .100 .182 .100 .000 .128 -1.3 -0.1 -0.2
2014 KCA MLB 549 63 140 22 6 1 43 43 49 17 8 .285 .349 .360 .075 .267 16.6 -7.7 1.0

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2012 2286 0.5319 0.4284 0.8805 0.6069 0.2252 0.9201 0.7593 0.1154
2013 2434 0.5267 0.4316 0.9238 0.6069 0.2361 0.9499 0.8493 0.0762
2014 2072 0.5236 0.4533 0.9072 0.6627 0.2209 0.9444 0.7844 0.0918
Career67920.52750.43710.90420.62390.22780.93820.79920.0942

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-06-21 2014-07-11 15-DL 20 18 Left Groin Strain -
2014-06-18 2014-06-19 DTD 1 1 Left Groin Soreness -
2014-05-25 2014-05-26 DTD 1 1 Left Elbow Contusion HBP -
2013-08-29 2013-08-29 DTD 0 0 Right Knee Tendonitis Patellar Tendonitis -
2013-08-22 2013-08-23 DTD 1 0 Right Knee Tendonitis Patellar Tendonitis - -
2013-07-09 2013-07-11 DTD 2 2 Left Elbow Tightness - -
2012-08-31 2012-09-01 DTD 1 1 - Neck Stiffness - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 KCA $1,918,750
2013 MIL $1,250,000
2012 MIL $1,000,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
2 yrPrevious$2,250,000
2011Current$1,918,750
3 yrPvs + Cur$4,168,750
3 yrTotal$4,168,750

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
2 y 0 dNez Balelo2 years/$2.5M (2012-13), 2014 option

Details
  • 2 years/$2.5M (2012-13), plus 2014 club option. Signed by Milwaukee 1/17/12. 12:$1M, 13:$1.25M, 14:$1.5M club option, $0.25M buyout. Performance bonuses based on games (70-150) and starts (100-140): May earn additional $1.675M in 2012, $0.8375M in 2013 and $1.0875M in 2014. Half of bonuses earned in 2012 added to 2013 base salary. May become Article XX(B) free agent after contract expires (after 2013 or 2014 season). Milwaukee exercised 2014 option at $1,918,750 10/29/13. Acquired by Kansas City in trade from Milwaukee 12/5/13.
  • Milwaukee paid $2.5M posting fee for negotiating rights after Aoki was posted by Japan's Yakult Swallows 1/12.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 695 90 192 34 3 7 59 56 50 28 12 .314 .374 .415 .297 35.1 RF 0 3.8
80o 679 86 180 32 3 6 56 53 50 27 11 .302 .361 .399 .287 27.5 RF 0 3.0
70o 667 83 173 31 3 6 53 50 50 26 11 .293 .352 .387 .279 22.3 RF 0 2.4
60o 657 80 167 30 3 6 51 49 50 25 10 .286 .344 .377 .273 17.9 RF 0 1.9
50o 648 78 162 29 3 6 50 47 50 24 10 .279 .336 .368 .267 14.0 RF 0 1.5
40o 639 75 155 28 3 5 48 45 50 23 9 .272 .329 .359 .261 10.1 RF 0 1.1
30o 629 73 149 27 3 5 46 43 49 22 9 .265 .321 .350 .254 6.1 RF 0 0.7
20o 617 70 142 25 3 5 44 41 49 21 9 .257 .311 .338 .247 1.6 RF 0 0.2
10o 601 66 133 24 2 5 41 38 49 20 8 .245 .298 .323 .237 -4.4 RF 0 -0.5
Weighted Mean6497816229365047502410.280.337.370.26814.5RF 01.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
1% 39% 2% 11% 94%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
2015333223475131226262911.264.334.336.2571.110.1-1.0-2.214.9-1.60.0
2016344074497151334333613.271.340.344.2611.210.7-1.6-2.914.90.30.0
20173525027579022118226.260.324.335.2510.54.9-1.1-1.912.5-4.60.0
20183625026569112018245.255.320.322.2460.32.9-1.2-1.913.7-7.70.0
20193725026559022018255.250.314.321.2450.32.6-1.3-2.014.9-9.00.0
202038423429316133330416.244.308.313.239-0.4-3.4-2.3-3.514.9-12.50.0
20213925024539011818263.239.303.297.233-0.5-4.8-1.4-2.214.9-16.10.0
2022406375913024124442686.227.290.283.227-1.5-14.1-3.4-5.714.9-19.90.1
202341250235210011717282.232.294.287.227-0.9-8.3-1.3-2.314.9-19.60.0

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
37.948.44527.24.710.9163.3

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 65)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 78 Juan Pierre 2010 .234
2 77 Luis Castillo 2008 .241
3 77 Tony Gwynn 1992 .280
4 74 Floyd Robinson 1968 .243
5 73 Placido Polanco 2008 .262
6 72 Shane Victorino 2013 .292
7 71 Elmer Valo 1953 .265
8 71 Rafael Furcal 2010 .316
9 70 Ryan Theriot 2012 .239
10 70 Len Dykstra 1995 .253
11 70 David DeJesus 2012 .278
12 70 Dale Mitchell 1954 .279
13 70 Richie Ashburn 1959 .250
14 70 Jackie Robinson 1951 .341
15 70 Greg Gross 1985 .251
16 69 Coco Crisp 2012 .272
17 68 Maicer Izturis 2013 .224
18 67 Jeff Keppinger 2012 .289
19 67 Ryan Hanigan 2013 .219
20 67 Mark Grace 1996 .287
21 67 Brett Butler 1989 .261
22 67 Chone Figgins 2010 .240
23 67 David Eckstein 2007 .262
24 66 Tim Raines 1992 .303
25 66 Chuck Knoblauch 2001 .251
26 66 Endy Chavez 2010 .000 DNP
27 66 Nellie Fox 1960 .264
28 66 Ryan Freel 2008 .253
29 66 Pete Rose 1973 .316
30 66 Harvey Kuenn 1963 .279
31 66 Bill Madlock 1983 .295
32 65 Skip Schumaker 2012 .256
33 65 Jimmy Rollins 2011 .283
34 65 Joe Cunningham 1964 .252
35 65 Jason Bartlett 2012 .167
36 65 Jose Vidro 2007 .277
37 65 Kosuke Fukudome 2009 .281
38 65 Matty Alou 1971 .288
39 64 Lenny Green 1965 .286
40 64 Craig Biggio 1998 .306
41 64 Scott Podsednik 2008 .234
42 64 Jason Tyner 2009 .000 DNP
43 64 Roberto Alomar 2000 .280
44 64 John Olerud 2001 .307
45 64 Barry Larkin 1996 .318
46 64 Alfredo Amezaga 2010 .000 DNP
47 64 Carlos Ruiz 2011 .292
48 63 George Kell 1955 .295
49 63 Vernon Wells 2011 .243
50 63 Brandon Phillips 2013 .257
51 63 Julio Lugo 2008 .236
52 63 Edgar Renteria 2009 .224
53 63 Cesar Tovar 1973 .271
54 63 Jerry Hairston 2008 .296
55 63 Mark Kotsay 2008 .251
56 63 Minnie Minoso 1958 .309
57 62 Nyjer Morgan 2013 .000 DNP
58 62 Mike Greenwell 1996 .253
59 62 Matt Lawton 2004 .264
60 62 Richie Scheinblum 1975 .000 DNP
61 62 Rusty Staub 1976 .307
62 62 Mark Ellis 2009 .236
63 62 Willie Bloomquist 2010 .230
64 62 Ferris Fain 1953 .293
65 62 Brian Downing 1983 .278
66 62 Orlando Hudson 2010 .245
67 62 Roy White 1976 .297
68 62 Luis Gonzalez 2000 .306
69 62 Wade Boggs 1990 .281
70 62 Manny Mota 1970 .282
71 62 Gene Woodling 1955 .273
72 61 Carney Lansford 1989 .304
73 61 Rickey Henderson 1991 .317
74 61 Buddy Bell 1984 .299
75 61 Bobby Avila 1956 .237
76 61 Billy Goodman 1958 .267
77 61 Esteban German 2010 .238
78 61 Willard Marshall 1953 .286
79 61 Rod Carew 1978 .307
80 61 Al Spangler 1966 .530
81 61 Cesar Izturis 2012 .194
82 61 Rusty Greer 2001 .269
83 61 Marco Scutaro 2008 .259
84 61 Alex Cora 2008 .257
85 61 Cal Ripken Jr. 1993 .259
86 61 Curt Flood 1970 .000 DNP
87 61 Robin Yount 1988 .307
88 60 Paul Lo Duca 2004 .260
89 60 Luis Rodriguez 2012 .000 DNP
90 60 Chris Denorfia 2013 .273
91 60 Elliott Maddox 1980 .253
92 60 Sean Casey 2007 .256
93 60 Edgar Martinez 1995 .359
94 60 Aaron Miles 2009 .162
95 60 Alan Trammell 1990 .296
96 60 Willie Randolph 1987 .289
97 60 Ryan Spilborghs 2012 .000 DNP
98 60 Felipe Lopez 2012 .000 DNP
99 60 Don Mattingly 1993 .280
100 60 Brian Schneider 2009 .232

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .316 .361 .396 .277
11 vs R (Multi) .274 .353 .386 .267
18 Split (Multi) -.042 -.008 -.011 -.011
19 LgAvg (Multi) .027 .038 .071 .034
30 vs L (2013) .339 .381 .400 .285
31 vs R (2013) .264 .345 .357 .256
38 Split (2013) -.075 -.036 -.043 -.030
39 LgAvg (2013) .026 .037 .071 .034

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 The Brewers seemed surprised to sign Aoki last season, when GM Doug Melvin reportedly “put in a bid on him just to see what would happen.” More surprising still was the player who emerged once the former NPB batting champ earned regular playing time. Far from the aging, punchless import most scouts expected, Aoki demonstrated extra-base power, stole 30 bases, and sparked the Brewers lineup from the leadoff spot during their late-season surge. His swing isn’t easy on the eyes, but Aoki’s tremendous hand-eye coordination helps him make hard contact, hang in well against lefties, and avoid strikeouts at a rate that would make Ichiro proud. At 31, he’s already stretched in center field. His future is in right, where his average power is less than ideal but his glove is an asset. Signed for a relative song through 2014, Aoki may lose some of his power as the league catches on to him, but so far Milwaukee’s casual investment has turned out A-OK.
2012 Three-time Japanese batting champion Norichika Aoki inked a two-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers this winter. Three-time batting champion? Sign me up! Not so fast; the problem is that at 29 years old, Aoki is past his prime, and scouts wonder how some of his skills will translate to Major League Baseball. One of those skills is his power; despite home run totals of 20, 14, 16, and 14 from 2007 to 2010, he hit just four last season when NPB switched to a ball that more resembled those used in MLB. He’s a solid defender capable of playing centerfield, but his speed is on the decline. He has good hand-eye coordination and may manage to hit a little, but the fourth outfield role he’ll fill for the Brewers may ultimately be his ceiling.

BP Articles

Norichika Aoki is referenced in the following articles.

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Regular-Season Awards: Handing out the HardwareBaseball Prospectus2012-10-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Revisiting the Foreign ImportsDerek Carty2012-09-27
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: What's Brewing in MilwaukeeR.J. Anderson2012-09-25
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 19Larry Granillo2012-09-20
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: The Shark vs. Strasburg ShutdownJohn Perrotto2012-09-13
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 10Larry Granillo2012-09-11
What You Need to Know: Tuesday, September 11Daniel Rathman2012-09-11
Wezen-Ball: Milwaukee's Impossible Road to the Wild CardLarry Granillo2012-09-10
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for September 4Larry Granillo2012-09-05
This article requires BP Premium accessPunk Hits: The Worst of the BestIan Miller2012-08-08
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for July 29Larry Granillo2012-07-30
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: The Surprise From JapanR.J. Anderson2012-07-23
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat the Contenders Need: NL CentralJeff Euston2012-06-29
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat the Contenders Need: NL CentralR.J. Anderson2012-06-29
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat the Contenders Need: NL CentralKevin Goldstein2012-06-29
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This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Jonny Venters and What a High BABIP Looks LikeBen Lindbergh2012-05-29
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Game of the Week: Bullpens, Banana Suits, and Ryan BraunSam Miller2012-05-25
The Lineup Card: 10 Mr. AlmostsBaseball Prospectus2012-05-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Catching Up With International ImportsDerek Carty2012-05-17
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 20Larry Granillo2012-04-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: Outfielders for 4/13/12Rob McQuown2012-04-13
Inside The Park Blog: An Unlikely EncounterBradford Doolittle2012-04-12
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This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: A-nother Oakland Outfielder [Updated]R.J. Anderson2012-01-18
This article requires BP Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Second-Tier Japanese ImportsDerek Carty2011-12-16


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)What is your assessment of Norichika Aoki's defense?
(William from Spokane)
Humorous but effective. I once asked Lorenzo Cain to sum up Aoki's routes in one word. "Wow," he said. Then he started laughing. (Andy McCullough)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Favorite low key acquisition this winter?
(Pamey Wright from L.A.)
I'm not sure if they qualify—you could probably call both mid-key acqusitions—but I loved the Norichika Aoki deal for Kansas City, and I think David Freese will help the Angels more than people think. If we're talking low-low key then Burke Badenhop is a good get for Boston. He's dependable and didn't cost much. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-06-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)every1 has a different answer to this question, so what's your's? Who is the most underrated player on baseball? Mine is matt carpenter so far this season.
(colin dejong from houston)
So many to choose from, but the first name to jump to mind is another NL Central leadoff man: Norichika Aoki. He hasn't struck out since May 25, and has provided the Brewers with 4.3 WARP through 1.4 seasons of a two-year, $2.5 million deal. At this point, there may not be more of a no-brainer option than Aoki's $1.5 million price tag for 2014. (Daniel Rathman)
2013-02-27 20:00:00 (link to chat)In a keeper league, I have Norichika Aoki and Michael Brantley as my 3rd OF & top bench player (1B & DH spots are taken by Prince & Morneau). I have an offer to trade either one of them to upgrade my pitching staff (same trade, they're interchangeable). PECOTA prefers Aoki, but I'm worried he will regress heavily in 2013, do you have any thoughts?
(ttt from Manhattan)
Howdy, Triple-T. I'm with PECOTA here. I do see some regression for Aoki, but I don't think it will be heavy. The speed looks legitimate, and while I think he might slip in HR a little bit, the numbers overall should be similar. Brantley is the guy I'd move. The Indians offense is loaded, and while Baseball Prospectus's own Jason Martinez has Brantley and Drew Stubbs both starting, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brantley not play quite as much as he did last year. Plus, Brantley doesn't really do any one thing especially well. I think this is a no brainer. I don't know what your offer is, but I'd move Brantley. (Mike Gianella)
2012-07-11 12:00:00 (link to chat)Just looking average, runs and steals, better 2h Alejandro De Aza or Norichika Aoki?
(JDub from San Diego)
De Aza (Jason Collette)


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