Biographical

Portrait of Mike Pelfrey

Mike Pelfrey PTwins

Twins Player Cards | Twins Team Audit | Twins Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 30)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
114.3 4.86 1.50 63 5 9 0 -0.3
Birth Date1-14-1984
Height6' 7"
Weight250 lbs
Age30 years, 9 months, 8 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
0.92010
-1.02011
0.72012
1.82013
-0.92014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2006 NYN 22 4 4 21.3 21.3 0.0 2 1 0 0 1 0 99 25 14 13 1 34 12 12 3 13 5.48 4.61 5.27 -2.2 -0.2
2007 NYN 23 15 13 72.7 69.3 3.3 3 8 0 0 3 0 342 85 47 45 6 121 39 38 9 45 5.57 4.99 5.59 -1.0 -0.3
2008 NYN 24 32 32 200.7 200.7 0.0 13 11 0 0 19 1 851 209 86 83 12 298 64 63 13 110 3.72 3.94 4.43 16.9 1.7
2009 NYN 25 31 31 184.3 184.3 0.0 10 12 0 0 15 0 824 213 112 103 18 316 66 58 7 107 5.03 4.35 5.01 6.7 0.5
2010 NYN 26 34 33 204.0 203.0 1.0 15 9 1 0 20 0 870 213 88 83 12 308 68 63 6 113 3.66 3.85 4.24 8.5 0.9
2011 NYN 27 34 33 193.7 193.3 0.3 7 13 0 0 15 2 860 220 111 102 21 334 65 58 7 105 4.74 4.43 5.13 -7.6 -1.0
2012 NYN 28 3 3 19.7 19.7 0.0 0 0 0 0 2 0 85 24 5 5 0 28 4 4 0 13 2.29 2.42 2.42 6.6 0.7
2013 MIN 29 29 29 152.7 152.7 0.0 5 13 0 0 11 1 680 184 92 88 13 264 53 53 6 101 5.19 4.02 4.13 18.0 1.8
2014 MIN 30 5 5 23.7 23.7 0.0 0 3 0 0 0 0 119 29 23 21 5 48 18 18 2 10 7.99 7.60 8.05 -5.4 -0.6
Career1871831072.71068.04.755701086447301202578543881751389367536174.564.234.7140.53.6

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2006 NYN MLB 4 4 21.3 5.27 81 .301 .267 .328 .424 .260 .343 91 -0.2 -0.0 -2.2 -0.2
2006 SLU A+ 4 4 22.2 2.83 106 .142 .267 .338 .398 .266 .320 51 6.3 0.6 6.3 0.6
2006 BIN AA 12 12 66.1 2.91 124 .237 .260 .332 .390 .264 .372 83 16.9 1.8 19.8 2.2
2006 NOR AAA 2 2 8.2 6.03 52 .219 .256 .335 .404 .261 .143 94 -1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1
2007 NYN MLB 15 13 72.7 5.59 80 .287 .257 .321 .411 .250 .325 97 -0.1 -0.0 -1.0 -0.3
2007 SLU A+ 1 1 6.0 8.13 42 .230 .258 .327 .389 .253 .235 107 -1.1 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1
2007 NWO AAA 14 14 74.0 4.87 98 .248 .273 .338 .429 .260 .297 98 8.2 0.8 6.8 0.9
2008 NYN MLB 32 32 200.7 4.43 98 .260 .257 .323 .409 .258 .302 93 15.5 1.6 16.9 1.7
2009 NYN MLB 31 31 184.3 5.01 85 .274 .261 .329 .422 .264 .312 96 5.5 0.6 6.7 0.5
2010 NYN MLB 34 33 204.0 4.24 92 .271 .255 .318 .401 .264 .300 89 10.1 1.1 8.5 0.9
2011 NYN MLB 34 33 193.7 5.13 73 .287 .251 .313 .393 .260 .301 97 -7.5 -0.8 -7.6 -1.0
2012 NYN MLB 3 3 19.7 2.42 141 .259 .260 .319 .392 .263 .353 95 5.9 0.6 6.6 0.7
2013 MIN MLB 29 29 152.7 4.13 104 .288 .260 .320 .405 .268 .337 100 18.3 2.0 18.0 1.8
2013 CDR A 1 1 6.0 5.14 99 .164 .252 .318 .370 .259 .077 112 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0
2014 MIN MLB 5 5 23.7 8.05 20 .330 .255 .323 .391 .268 .286 108 -5.4 -0.6 -5.4 -0.6
2014 ROC AAA 2 2 10.0 4.69 105 .194 .261 .336 .398 .254 .250 105 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2006 NYN MLB 2 1 0 4 4 21.3 25 12 13 1 49% .343 10.5 5.1 0.4 5.5 1.73 5.48 -2.2 -0.2
2006 SLU A+ 2 1 0 4 4 22.2 17 2 26 1 65% .320 6.9 0.8 0.4 10.5 0.86 1.62 6.3 0.6
2006 NOR AAA 1 0 0 2 2 8.2 4 5 6 1 13% .143 4.4 5.5 1.1 6.6 1.10 2.20 -1.2 -0.1
2006 BIN AA 4 2 0 12 12 66.1 60 26 77 2 49% .372 8.2 3.5 0.3 10.5 1.30 2.72 19.8 2.2
2007 SLU A+ 0 0 0 1 1 6.0 5 3 2 1 56% .235 7.5 4.5 1.5 3.0 1.33 3.00 -1.1 -0.1
2007 NYN MLB 3 8 0 15 13 72.7 85 39 45 6 50% .325 10.5 4.8 0.7 5.6 1.71 5.57 -1.0 -0.3
2007 NWO AAA 3 6 0 14 14 74.0 74 26 56 6 59% .297 9.0 3.2 0.7 6.8 1.35 4.01 6.8 0.9
2008 NYN MLB 13 11 0 32 32 200.7 209 64 110 12 51% .302 9.4 2.9 0.5 4.9 1.36 3.72 16.9 1.7
2009 NYN MLB 10 12 0 31 31 184.3 213 66 107 18 52% .312 10.4 3.2 0.9 5.2 1.51 5.03 6.7 0.5
2010 NYN MLB 15 9 1 34 33 204.0 213 68 113 12 51% .300 9.4 3.0 0.5 5.0 1.38 3.66 8.5 0.9
2011 NYN MLB 7 13 0 34 33 193.7 220 65 105 21 48% .301 10.2 3.0 1.0 4.9 1.47 4.74 -7.6 -1.0
2012 NYN MLB 0 0 0 3 3 19.7 24 4 13 0 54% .353 11.0 1.8 0.0 5.9 1.42 2.29 6.6 0.7
2013 CDR A 1 0 0 1 1 6.0 2 0 6 1 57% .077 3.0 0.0 1.5 9.0 0.33 3.00 0.4 0.0
2013 MIN MLB 5 13 0 29 29 152.7 184 53 101 13 45% .337 10.8 3.1 0.8 6.0 1.55 5.19 18.0 1.8
2014 ROC AAA 1 0 0 2 2 10.0 9 3 3 0 41% .250 8.1 2.7 0.0 2.7 1.20 0.90 1.1 0.1
2014 MIN MLB 0 3 0 5 5 23.7 29 18 10 5 45% .286 11.0 6.8 1.9 3.8 1.99 7.99 -5.4 -0.6

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 3188 0.5028 0.4576 0.8621 0.6619 0.2505 0.9105 0.7330 0.1358
2009 3119 0.5172 0.4508 0.8691 0.6348 0.2537 0.8975 0.7932 0.1302
2010 3385 0.5291 0.4663 0.8631 0.6427 0.2679 0.9140 0.7260 0.1350
2011 3190 0.5367 0.4634 0.8741 0.6513 0.2449 0.9139 0.7514 0.1259
2012 305 0.4098 0.4590 0.8000 0.6320 0.3389 0.8608 0.7213 0.1929
2013 2727 0.5127 0.4446 0.8787 0.6323 0.2468 0.9118 0.7896 0.1196
2014 456 0.5154 0.3838 0.8800 0.5830 0.1719 0.9343 0.6842 0.1200
Career163700.51790.4550.86810.6430.25250.90940.75450.1306

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-05-02 2014-09-29 60-DL 150 136 Right Elbow Surgery Ulnar Nerve Decompression 2014-06-10
2014-05-02 2014-05-02 On-Alr 0 0 Left Groin Strain - -
2013-06-19 2013-07-05 15-DL 16 15 - Back Strain - -
2012-04-22 2012-10-04 60-DL 165 148 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2012-05-01 -
2011-08-13 2011-08-13 DTD 0 0 Right Elbow Contusion Batted Ball - -
2011-04-22 2011-04-22 DTD 0 0 - General Medical Illness -
2011-03-10 2011-03-10 Camp 0 0 Right Thigh Contusion Batted Ball -
2010-07-16 2010-07-19 DTD 3 3 - Neck Stiffness -
2010-07-07 2010-07-07 DTD 0 0 Right Arm Fatigue -
2010-05-07 2010-05-07 DTD 0 0 Right Shoulder Soreness In 2011 and Said He Pitched All Season with Strained RTC and Injected Before Each Start -
2010-03-07 2010-03-09 Camp 2 0 Bilateral Knee Soreness -
2009-04-14 2009-04-25 DTD 11 9 Right Forearm Inflammation -
2009-03-06 2009-03-14 Camp 8 0 Left Lower Leg Strain -
2007-08-20 2007-08-29 Minors 9 0 Right Shoulder Fatigue - -
2006-08-27 2006-09-16 Minors 20 0 Right Shoulder Strain Latissimus Dorsi -
2006-08-08 2006-08-26 Minors 18 0 Right Shoulder Strain Latissimus Dorsi -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2015 MIN $5,500,000
2014 MIN $5,500,000
2013 MIN $4,000,000
2012 NYN $5,687,500
2011 NYN $3,925,000
2010 NYN $500,000
2009 NYN $2,237,500
YearsDescriptionSalary
5 yrPrevious$16,350,000
2011Current$5,500,000
6 yrPvs + Cur$21,850,000
1 yrFuture$5,500,000
7 yrTotal$27,350,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
6 y 122 dScott Boras2 years/$11M (2014-15)

Details
  • 2 years/$11M (2014-15). Re-signed by Minnesota as a free agent 12/23/13. 14:$5.5M, 15:$5.5M. Performance bonuses for 2014: $0.15M each for 170, 180 innings pitched. $0.2M for 190 IP. $0.5M for 200 IP. Escalators: 2015 salary increases $0.5M each with 165, 175, 185, 195, 205 IP in 2014.
  • 1 year/$4M (2013). Signed by Minnesota as a free agent 12/16/12. Performance bonuses: $0.1M for 150 innings pitched. $0.15M for 160 IP. $0.25M each for 170, 180, 190 IP. $0.5M for 200 IP.
  • 1 year/$5.6875M (2012). Re-signed by NY Mets 1/17/12 (avoided arbitration). Non-tendered by NY Mets 11/30/12.
  • 1 year/$3.925M (2011). Re-signed by NY Mets 1/18/11 (avoided arbitration). $50,000 in performance bonuses.
  • 4 years/$5.25M (2006-09), plus 2010 club option. Signed Major League contract with NY Mets 1/06. $3.55M signing bonus. Value reaches $6.6M if Pelfrey makes 25-man roster in 2007-09. NY Mets exercised $0.5M 2010 club option 11/6/09.
  • Drafted by NY Mets 2005 (1-9) (Wichita State).

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 6.3 6.5 0 19 19 125.2 126 34 68 10 .281 1.28 3.88 4.21 11.4 1.2
80o 6.1 6.8 0 19 19 119.3 127 34 65 10 .293 1.35 4.23 4.59 6.6 0.7
70o 5.9 7.1 0 19 19 115.1 128 35 62 10 .301 1.41 4.48 4.87 3.2 0.3
60o 5.8 7.4 0 19 19 111.5 128 35 60 10 .308 1.46 4.70 5.11 0.4 0.0
50o 5.7 7.6 0 19 19 108.3 128 35 59 11 .315 1.50 4.91 5.34 -2.3 -0.2
40o 5.5 7.8 0 19 19 105.1 128 35 57 11 .321 1.55 5.13 5.57 -4.8 -0.5
30o 5.3 8.1 0 19 19 101.7 128 35 55 11 .328 1.60 5.35 5.82 -7.6 -0.8
20o 5.1 8.4 0 19 19 97.8 128 35 53 11 .337 1.66 5.63 6.12 -10.7 -1.1
10o 4.9 8.8 0 19 19 92.6 128 35 50 10 .348 1.75 6.01 6.53 -14.8 -1.5
Weighted Mean5.77.601919108.2127345910.3131.504.895.32-2.0-0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
20% 45% 25% 11% 90%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2015318110282817120961951849.3221.585.265.7211.03.25.00.9-1.1
2016326100232313517744701549.3341.635.676.1711.82.94.71.0-1.5
201733590202011915842611549.3341.695.986.5012.03.24.61.1-1.7
201834580191911014442571449.3311.695.956.4711.73.44.61.1-1.5
20193547015158811333471149.3281.675.816.3111.63.44.81.1-1.1
202036360131374972740949.3361.685.976.4911.93.34.91.1-1.0
202137350121270922435949.3321.675.896.4011.93.14.51.2-0.9
2022382409955742127749.3311.726.096.6212.03.44.41.1-0.8
2023392409954712026749.3321.706.066.5811.93.44.41.2-0.8

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
29.112.918.113.93.70.977.7

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 87)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 94 Ben McDonald 1998 0.00 DNP
2 94 Joe Horlen 1968 3.02
3 94 Mel Parnell 1952 3.91
4 93 Frank Sullivan 1960 5.45
5 92 Jim Hearn 1951 4.46
6 92 Jim O'Toole 1967 3.48
7 92 Steve Rogers 1980 3.23
8 92 Dock Ellis 1975 4.44 DNP
9 92 Jason Marquis 2009 4.33
10 91 Bob Ojeda 1988 3.50
11 91 Jack Morris 1985 3.57
12 91 Paul Maholm 2012 3.81
13 91 Bob Rush 1956 3.46
14 91 Jon Garland 2010 3.87
15 90 Frank Lary 1960 4.04
16 90 Dave Goltz 1979 4.42
17 90 Pat Jarvis 1971 4.60
18 89 Butch Henry 1999 5.40
19 89 Orel Hershiser 1989 2.63
20 89 Doug Drabek 1993 4.09
21 89 Joe Kennedy 2009 0.00 DNP
22 89 Jim Beattie 1985 7.81
23 88 Ned Garver 1956 5.09
24 88 Brad Penny 2008 6.46
25 88 Kirk McCaskill 1991 4.71
26 88 Gary Peters 1967 2.80
27 88 Larry Jackson 1961 4.22
28 88 Pat Hentgen 1999 5.20
29 88 Burt Hooton 1980 3.92
30 88 Mel Stottlemyre 1972 3.43
31 88 Andy Messersmith 1976 3.60
32 88 Mike Boddicker 1988 3.85
33 88 Kelly Downs 1991 4.76
34 88 Mike Moore 1990 5.10
35 88 Don Wilson 1975 0.00 DNP
36 88 Jason Hammel 2013 5.23
37 87 Bill Hands 1970 4.11
38 87 Jason Jennings 2009 4.72
39 87 Roger Nelson 1974 3.80
40 87 Dana Kiecker 1991 7.59
41 87 Jeff Francis 2011 5.02
42 87 Bud Black 1987 4.56
43 87 Johnny Antonelli 1960 4.17
44 87 Phil Niekro 1969 2.94
45 87 Reggie Cleveland 1978 4.26
46 87 Jason Vargas 2013 4.08
47 86 Scott Feldman 2013 4.26
48 86 Kyle Lohse 2009 5.28
49 86 Dean Chance 1971 4.32
50 86 Curt Simmons 1959 4.50
51 86 Barry Zito 2008 5.75
52 86 John Burkett 1995 4.54
53 86 Ed Figueroa 1979 4.21
54 86 Catfish Hunter 1976 3.80
55 86 Whitey Ford 1959 3.62
56 86 Curt Schilling 1997 3.40
57 86 Jack McDowell 1996 5.58
58 86 Charlie Leibrandt 1987 3.89
59 86 Jose Mesa 1996 3.98
60 85 Kevin Brown 1995 3.81
61 85 Andy Pettitte 2002 3.88
62 85 Sidney Ponson 2007 7.41
63 85 Billy O'Dell 1963 3.64
64 85 Willard Nixon 1958 7.60
65 85 Todd Stottlemyre 1995 4.98
66 85 Tom Gordon 1998 2.72
67 84 Jim Palmer 1976 2.89
68 84 Ken Hill 1996 3.95
69 84 Gavin Floyd 2013 5.55
70 84 Dave Stieb 1988 3.26
71 84 Warren Spahn 1951 3.22
72 84 Randy Jones 1980 4.14
73 84 Jaime Navarro 1997 6.65
74 84 Chris Bosio 1993 4.11
75 84 Kip Wells 2007 6.42
76 84 Bill Singer 1974 3.89
77 84 Bob Porterfield 1954 3.84
78 84 Juan Guzman 1997 6.30
79 84 Ken Holtzman 1976 3.94
80 84 Lew Burdette 1957 4.10
81 84 Bob Forsch 1980 4.28
82 84 Bartolo Colon 2003 3.98
83 84 Brian Bannister 2011 0.00 DNP
84 83 Joe Saunders 2011 3.99
85 83 Bob Tewksbury 1991 4.05
86 83 Roberto Hernandez 2011 5.96
87 83 Sergio Mitre 2011 5.40
88 83 Joaquin Andujar 1983 4.48
89 83 Dave Wickersham 1966 4.15
90 83 Joe Nuxhall 1959 5.19
91 83 Kevin Correia 2011 5.26
92 83 Dave Dravecky 1986 3.79
93 83 Scott Erickson 1998 4.48
94 83 Mark Gubicza 1993 5.26
95 83 Tim Belcher 1992 4.11
96 83 Don Liddle 1955 4.57
97 82 Tom Glavine 1996 3.44
98 82 Jerry Reuss 1979 4.89
99 82 Gaylord Perry 1969 3.18
100 82 Matt Morris 2005 4.72

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .275 .338 .427 .269
11 vs R (Multi) .316 .367 .421 .285
18 Split (Multi) -.041 -.029 .006 -.016
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .270 .334 .427 .266
31 vs R (2013) .337 .386 .435 .296
38 Split (2013) -.067 -.052 -.007 -.030
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 Pelfrey had Tommy John surgery on May 1 and was non-tendered by the Mets, and keeping with a theme, the Twins were compelled to offer the righty who doesn't strike anyone out a chance to help the club set the modern record for fewest strikeouts in a season. Not that Pelfrey's a bad pitcher! In fact, he has been a solid mid-rotation starter in two of his four full seasons. But the combination of his groundball tendencies, the recovery from TJS, and Minnesota's suspect middle-infield defense could get ugly.
2012 Now that he's been in the rotation for four years, it's pretty safe to say that Pelfrey is never going to turn into the pitcher the Mets envisioned when they selected him with the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft. He doesn't throw a changeup, and his slider never developed, so he's basically reduced to throwing two- and four-seam fastballs, and he's lost at least 2 mph off the pitch since his early days, as what was once 92-96 is now more often parked at 90-94 mph. He's not bad as much as he's just treading water.
2011 Pelfrey has three varieties of fastball at his disposal: a pure sinker, a two-seamer, and a four-seamer. Legend has it that the tall right-hander also possesses a changeup, but the only one of his four weapons easily distinguished by its velocity and movement is also the least utilized. None of Pelfrey's pitches is a standout offering; all four miss bats at a league-average rate, although the movement on his sinker and two-seamer do help the righty induce ground balls. Pelfrey is a fan favorite, and due to his youth and sometimes-respectable ERAs, he's considered capable of leading a staff in some quarters, but he's not up to that task. Big Pelf had a 2.82 ERA at Citi Field last year, but a 4.95 ERA on the road, where he allowed twice as many homers in 44 fewer innings while averaging fewer than six frames per start. His struggles in less cavernous parks weren't limited to 2010 and represent something more than an artifact of small sample size, which is the reason why his ceiling is no higher than that of a mid-rotation starter.
2010 Well, at least he stayed healthy, leading the '09 squad in starts and innings. Even for all that, Pelfrey has been a massive disappointment, having been seen by some as the best pitcher in the 2005 draft. It's easy to see why scouts like him: he's gigantic, with a sinking 92-94 mph fastball that he can dial up to 97. The problem is that he's forced to throw that pitch nearly 80 percent of the time, as his slider and changeup remain well below-average offerings. The shallow repertoire renders him hittable, and for a guy with his size, clean arm mechanics, and tons of stamina, a move to the pen would just seem like a waste. There's still some room for improvement here, but his 2009 season is closer to what we can expect going forward, rather than a return to the heights of 2008.
2009 Considered something of a bust heading into the season, Pelfrey bridled his powerful sinker and turned into the workhorse that the Mets envisioned when they took him ninth overall in the 2005 draft. After losing six straight starts from April 25 to May 26, Pelfrey had a 5.33 ERA and 4.2 BB/9, but then found the zone: his walk rate fell by two per nine and he posted a 3.20 ERA in 150 innings the rest of the way. Pelfrey relied more than ever upon his hard sinker, resulting in the sixth-lowest home-run rate among qualified starters. The highlight of his year came in late August, when he saved the battered bullpen by throwing back-to-back complete-game victories, the first Mets pitcher to do so since Bret Saberhagen in 1995. Pelfrey's innings jumped by almost 50 last year, but his huge frame and sinkerball style suggest the ability to shake off any after-effects. He'll have to, because suddenly he's being counted on as Santana's wingman.
2008 The Mets went into the 2007 season expecting a big contribution from Pelfrey. They didn't get it. Mike Pelfrey has a fantastic fastball. It gets into the mid-90s, features a ton of natural sink, and he commands it well. The problem is that you need more than one pitch to get big league hitters out, and Pelfrey is still looking for something else to throw. His slider is flat, and his changeup is about as deceptive as Milton Berle in drag. If something else doesn't come along, he'll never be the star most thought he would be.
2007 The towering Wichita State alum was the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft, but didn`t get around to signing until 2006. He made a fast trip to the majors, but that was more because of the Mets` unraveling rotation than his own readiness. Pelfrey throws a mid-90s sinking fastball, but his off-speed offerings aren`t anything special right now, so much so that he junked his curve for a slider during a brief AFL stint. Pelfrey missed the end of the regular season with a strained back and ended his AFL tour early due to `general soreness.` He`ll compete for a rotation spot in spring training, but, unless his secondary offerings have improved, Triple-A seems more likely.

BP Articles

Mike Pelfrey is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The Exception to the RaulR.J. Anderson2014-06-23
Overthinking It: Have Tommy John Surgery, Sign Long-Term Contract?Ben Lindbergh2014-05-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week SixWilson Karaman2014-05-02
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: A Busy Thursday in BaseballDaniel Rathman2014-05-02
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: Harang UnravelsDaniel Rathman2014-05-01
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, April 28Jeff Moore2014-04-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week FiveWilson Karaman2014-04-25
Daily League Strategy: Navigating a 15-Game SlatePaul Sporer2014-04-04
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat You Need to Know: The Importance of PaganDaniel Rathman2014-04-04
The BP Wayback Machine: Another Opening DayKevin Goldstein2014-04-03
Framing and Blocking Pitches: A Regressed, Probabilistic Model: A New Method for Measuring Catcher DefenseDan Brooks2014-03-03
Framing and Blocking Pitches: A Regressed, Probabilistic Model: A New Method for Measuring Catcher DefenseHarry Pavlidis2014-03-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersJared Weiss2014-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersBen Murphy2014-02-28
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting PitchersIan Lefkowitz2014-02-28
Transaction Analysis: Yankees Sign TanakaBret Sayre2014-01-22
Transaction Analysis: Yankees Sign TanakaR.J. Anderson2014-01-22
This article requires BP Premium accessBaseball Therapy: Building a Better Starting RotationRussell A. Carleton2014-01-13
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Dodgers Win Your eBay BiddingBret Sayre2013-12-16
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Dodgers Win Your eBay BiddingR.J. Anderson2013-12-16
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Dodgers Win Your eBay BiddingMauricio Rubio2013-12-16
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Phil Hughes Finds a Friendlier HomeBret Sayre2013-12-02
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Phil Hughes Finds a Friendlier HomeBen Lindbergh2013-12-02
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Nolasco Heads NorthR.J. Anderson2013-12-02
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Nolasco Heads NorthRob McQuown2013-12-02
Baseball ProGUESTus: Pitch Types and the Times Through the Order PenaltyMitchel Lichtman2013-11-15
This article requires BP Premium accessOne Move: American League WestBen Carsley2013-11-12
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 24, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 26Paul Sporer2013-09-20
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 18, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-18
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 12, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-12
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 7, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-07
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 5, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-05
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 1, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-01
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 26, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-26
Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 8/23Ben Lindbergh2013-08-26
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 21, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-21
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 19, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-19
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2012-12-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you see the Twins targeting as far starting pitchers?
(twinsfan29 from Nashville)
You're much closer to all the buzz than I am, twinsfan29!

Jerry Crasnick from ESPN heard yesterday that they're in on Joe Blanton, who would fit well at Target Field. He also mentioned the recently non-tendered Mike Pelfrey and John Lannan here: https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/275711755441823744. Last week, the Twins were tied to Brett Myers, who could transition back from the bullpen. If they turn to the trade market, some of the Rays starters could be in play. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-10-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any non-superstar/star-level players who could be non-tendered that teams should kick the tires on?
(jlarsen from chicago)
With the caveat that I did less than two seconds of research, some interesting names to me are Kyle Blanks, George Kottaras, Nyjer Morgan, Mark Reynolds, Brendan Ryan, Gaby Sanchez, Geovany Soto, Ian Stewart, Drew Stubbs, Dallas Braden, Philip Humber, Tommy Hunter, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Pelfrey, and Jerome Williams. (Geoff Young)
2012-03-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Shouldn't the Mets cut Mike Pelfrey? They'd save almost 4 million and the guy is practically worthless.
(Matt from Malone, NY)
I have no idea what's going through the minds of the Mets front office. My guess is that, with the giant drop in payroll they've already had this year, it's not worth cutting Pelfrey over $4 million. It's not like they'd be filling his spot with an All-Star. (Larry Granillo)
2012-01-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of Mike Pelfrey? Any (decent) chance he straightens himself out again this year? He seems like too much of a head case, and his K numbers for a guy with his "stuff" are terrible.
(JP from NY)
He's a ground ball guy, and they are affected by the players around them more than other pitchers. The Mets being the Mets probably gets him disproportionately. That said, there was something off about his game last year, as his HR rate literally doubled and his percentage of quality starts was just 45. Just 28, I like him as a change of scenery guy, someone who could be useful on the back end of a good team instead of pretending to be a 1-2 for a bad one. (Steven Goldman)
2010-04-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)How often do we ever see a pitcher 'work on a new pitch' in spring training and see it actually pay off long term? I am thinking of Mike Pelfrey, who seems to be missing a lot of bats with his split-change this year. If he can get the K rate to around 7 per 9, he is a completely different pitcher.
(J.P. from Hartford)
In Chicago most White Sox pitchers are taught cutters, which helped turn Gavin Floyd and John Danks into legitimate front-mid rotation hurlers. That seems to be more organizational philosophy than, say, Cole Hamels working to learn a cutter this off-season. In St. Louis, Dave Duncan works his magic with sequencing and location moreso than new pitches, but to the same effect. I agree that we don't hear about true success stories with these newer pitches as much as the failures, but Big Pelf wouldn't be alone if his split-change remains effective. (Eric Seidman)
2009-12-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Breakout batter and pitcher of 2010 is?
(Hawkeye from Grafton, ND)
Jeremy Hermida and Mike Pelfrey. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-02-16 14:00:00 (link to chat)For recently amateur players, at what point do amateur scouting reports begin to be over taken by pro reports and performance? I'm thinking of how Gordon Beckham is still rated 25 spots(?!?) above Wilmer Flores. Or even comparing Brad Holt this year ("not even close") to the top 100 compared to Mike Pelfrey before he threw a pitch (Top 50 prospect). It seems to me like the amateur scouting report sticks on a player way, way too long.
(Steve from Fremont, CA)
Yeah, Holt was the other guy, with Hellickson, to generate a lot of email. Look, he's not a good as you think he is, but he is plenty good. Are we supposed to throw years of reports on the guy just because he dominated the New York Penn League for 72 innings with a fastball that everyone knew was great in the first place? I don't get that. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Please give me your opinion/projection on the health and performance for John Maine and Mike Pelfrey in '09.
(tddewan from Torrance, CA)
More worried about Pelfrey due to the workload increase, but the Mets watched him so closely that we're going to learn about the inevitability of the Verducci Effect with him. I like both on performance and value. (Will Carroll)
2008-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any concerns with Mike Pelfrey, seeing that his innings went up quite a bit in '08?
(Matt from Whippleville, NY)
Yes, huge. He's probably this year's Verducci Effect poster child. The Mets knew it, understood the risks, and pushed smartly. We'll see how it works out. (Will Carroll)
2008-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)This isn't about the playoffs, but I'm curious, how much should Mike Pelfrey's size/build factor into concerns about the "Verducci Effect"? Should I be less concerned about Pelfrey than I would be about a guy who was 6'1" 190 who also made a large innings jump at a young age?
(Meddler from Brooklyn, NY)
Size doesn't matter to pitching. It's mechanics, stamina, and genetics. (Will Carroll)
2008-09-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)I know its been a while since he's been a prospect, but how much more development can we expect from Mike Pelfrey? He's having a stellar year, but if he ever wants to fulfill the ace-type upside many expected from him back when he was drafted, he'll have to miss more bats. Will that come if he refines his offspeed stuff? Or does it look more like he's going to settle in as a solid mid-rotation guy who gets by with an excellent groundball rate?
(Meddler from Brooklyn, NY)
I think what you are seeing is what you are going to get. An above-average middle-rotation type. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-08-01 14:00:00 (link to chat)Any idea why the Mets weren't able to get any of the players they were looking at?
(TLivingston from Sonoma, CA)
I don't think the Mets were looking very hard, for better or worse. They seem convinced that Fernando Tatis is for real, that they'll get Ryan Church back at some point, that the rotation will magically hold together despite John Maine's cuff strain, Mike Pelfrey's innings limit, Pedro Martinez's assorted ailments, Oliver Perez's volatility and all that.

I'm not sure I want to bet against all of that by sitting on my hands, but as a team that can afford to take on salary, they have some mobility during the waiver trading period. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-06-20 13:30:00 (link to chat)Realistically, taking Delgado and Castillo's contracts and the Mets unlikelihood to cut them into account, is there any personnel move (or moves)the Mets can make to improve their on the field production? I look at the roster and see so few tradeable parts.
(Kerri Mulqueen from Kew Gardens NY)
I wouldn't trade Fernando Martinez, so probably not. I guess you could see what the market is for Mike Pelfrey, who's a cheap midrotation starter for a few years, but I doubt you'd get much back. You could always sign Bonds, which would be a huge upgrade for the offense and a wash defensively with Alou. (People who complain about Bonds' defense and availability need to consider that Moises Alou is making $7 million this year.) (Joe Sheehan)
2008-03-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)________ should start the 5th game of the season for the Mets.
(Jessica from NYC)
Mike Pelfrey. Time to find out what he is by giving him the job and getting out of the way. The Mets' front four is very good, and the only candidate for #5 who has any upside is Pelfrey. Diddling with the Jorge Sosas of the world is silly. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-03-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Caleb, appreciate your thoughts on the tournament. Can you handicap the UCLA game for us? Can WKU keep that close or is the UCLA defense too tough?
(Dave from Flushing)
Thanks, Dave. WKU I think has a shot to keep it close. Courtney Lee is one of the best players in the country--he'll be in the NBA next year. Lee destroyed San Diego last round. Of course, UCLA's defense is the second best in the country, and the 6'5 Josh Shipp matches up well with the 6'5 Lee, but there's still a chance Lee could go off and keep things close.

The main thing to watch from a team perspective is how many turnovers the Hilltoppers force. They're 19th in the country in turnover percentage, which really powers their defense. UCLA was sloppy with the ball against A&M, turning it over on 1 of 4 trips, and I think if the Bruins hit that mark again that will allow WKU to hang around, maybe even long enough for another Ty Rogers attempt at a miracle. If the Toppers can't force that many turnovers, I think they'll be looking at a double-digit deficit for the majority.

What are the odds that Dave is writing from the bowels of Shea Stadium, where he's hard at work trying to find Mike Pelfrey a third pitch? (Caleb Peiffer (Basketball))
2008-03-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Caleb, appreciate your thoughts on the tournament. Can you handicap the UCLA game for us? Can WKU keep that close or is the UCLA defense too tough?
(Dave from Flushing)
Thanks, Dave. WKU I think has a shot to keep it close. Courtney Lee is one of the best players in the country--he'll be in the NBA next year. Lee destroyed San Diego last round. Of course, UCLA's defense is the second best in the country, and the 6'5 Josh Shipp matches up well with the 6'5 Lee, but there's still a chance Lee could go off and keep things close.



The main thing to watch from a team perspective is how many turnovers the Hilltoppers force. They're 19th in the country in turnover percentage, which really powers their defense. UCLA was sloppy with the ball against A&M, turning it over on 1 of 4 trips, and I think if the Bruins hit that mark again that will allow WKU to hang around, maybe even long enough for another Ty Rogers attempt at a miracle. If the Toppers can't force that many turnovers, I think they'll be looking at a double-digit deficit for the majority.



What are the odds that Dave is writing from the bowels of Shea Stadium, where he's hard at work trying to find Mike Pelfrey a third pitch? (Caleb Peiffer (Basketball))
2008-03-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can we expect Mike Pelfrey's SO rates to improve? Can he pull a Carmona like season (with much fewer innings I imagine)?
(Mike from Queens)
I'm just not a huge Pelfrey supporter until he finds any consistency with his secondary stuff. Carmona's sinker and slider both grade out high than any of Pelfrey's current offerings. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)The Mets need a good 5th starter. How about El Duque, Mike Pelfrey, Ruben Gotay, Marlon Anderson and Aaron Heilman for Ian Snell?
(Jay from Flushing)
That plus a ton of Famous Amos hot dogs still doesn't get you Snell, I suspect. Remember, it isn't Littlefield who's picking up the phone any more. (Christina Kahrl)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Mike Pelfrey has thrown 16,398 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Spring Training. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (92mph), also mixing in a Fourseam Fastball (93mph), Splitter (86mph) and Slider (85mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (75mph).