Biographical

Portrait of Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Papelbon PPhillies

Phillies Player Cards | Phillies Team Audit | Phillies Depth Chart

2014 Rest-of-Season Projections (seasonal age 33)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
0.3 2.48 1.03 0 0 0 0 0.0
Birth Date11-23-1980
Height6' 4"
Weight215 lbs
Age33 years, 10 months, 28 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
1.72010
2.42011
1.32012
0.82013
1.22014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
2005 BOS 24 17 3 34.0 16.0 18.0 3 1 0 1 0 0 148 33 11 10 4 53 17 15 3 34 2.65 4.35 4.18 6.4 0.7
2006 BOS 25 59 0 68.3 0.0 68.3 4 2 35 6 0 0 257 40 8 7 3 61 13 11 1 75 0.92 2.18 2.63 22.9 2.2
2007 BOS 26 59 0 58.3 0.0 58.3 1 3 37 3 0 0 224 30 12 12 5 50 15 15 4 84 1.85 2.52 3.05 16.4 1.6
2008 BOS 27 67 0 69.3 0.0 69.3 5 4 41 5 0 0 273 58 24 18 4 82 8 8 0 77 2.34 2.04 2.66 22.3 2.2
2009 BOS 28 66 0 68.0 0.0 68.0 1 1 38 3 0 0 285 54 15 14 5 79 24 23 4 76 1.85 3.10 1.98 24.3 2.5
2010 BOS 29 65 0 67.0 0.0 67.0 5 7 37 8 0 0 287 57 34 29 7 92 28 24 2 76 3.90 3.48 3.24 16.4 1.7
2011 BOS 30 63 0 64.3 0.0 64.3 4 1 31 3 0 0 255 50 22 21 3 72 10 9 3 87 2.94 1.57 1.87 22.1 2.4
2012 PHI 31 70 0 70.0 0.0 70.0 5 6 38 4 0 0 284 56 22 19 8 89 18 17 4 92 2.44 2.94 3.23 12.5 1.3
2013 PHI 32 61 0 61.7 0.0 61.7 5 1 29 7 0 0 254 59 23 20 6 84 11 10 1 57 2.92 3.02 3.61 7.4 0.8
2014 PHI 33 66 0 66.3 0.0 66.3 2 3 39 4 0 0 259 45 15 15 2 58 15 14 5 63 2.04 2.50 2.74 11.2 1.2
Career5933627.316.0611.335293254400252648218616547720159146277212.372.692.84161.916.6

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2003 LOW A- 13 6 32.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .406 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 SAR A+ 24 24 129.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .287 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 BOS MLB 17 3 34.0 4.18 116 .265 .267 .324 .410 .256 .322 105 6.4 0.7 6.4 0.7
2005 PME AA 14 14 87.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 -.417 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 PAW AAA 7 4 27.7 3.50 133 .182 .274 .333 .414 .245 .257 107 7.7 0.7 7.7 0.7
2006 BOS MLB 59 0 68.3 2.63 150 .164 .275 .341 .442 .261 .224 106 22.9 2.2 22.9 2.2
2007 BOS MLB 59 0 58.3 3.05 139 .168 .272 .338 .430 .266 .216 102 16.4 1.6 16.4 1.6
2008 BOS MLB 67 0 69.3 2.66 147 .202 .266 .332 .421 .262 .293 107 22.3 2.2 22.3 2.2
2009 BOS MLB 66 0 68.0 1.98 163 .212 .270 .339 .435 .266 .278 112 24.3 2.5 24.3 2.5
2010 BOS MLB 65 0 67.0 3.24 136 .229 .259 .328 .415 .259 .287 114 16.4 1.7 16.4 1.7
2011 BOS MLB 63 0 64.3 1.87 161 .197 .256 .320 .407 .262 .309 108 22.1 2.4 22.1 2.4
2012 PHI MLB 70 0 70.0 3.23 124 .231 .257 .322 .405 .261 .296 98 12.5 1.3 12.5 1.3
2013 PHI MLB 61 0 61.7 3.61 116 .229 .254 .320 .394 .260 .296 106 7.4 0.8 7.4 0.8
2014 PHI MLB 66 0 66.3 2.74 130 .191 .252 .313 .391 .263 .247 97 11.2 1.2 11.2 1.2

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2003 LOW A- 1 2 0 13 6 32.7 43 9 36 2 0% .406 11.8 2.5 0.6 9.9 1.59 6.33 0.0 0.0
2004 SAR A+ 12 7 0 24 24 129.7 97 43 153 6 0% .287 6.7 3.0 0.4 10.6 1.08 2.64 0.0 0.0
2005 PAW AAA 1 2 1 7 4 27.7 21 3 27 2 45% .257 6.8 1.0 0.6 8.8 0.87 2.92 7.7 0.7
2005 BOS MLB 3 1 0 17 3 34.0 33 17 34 4 36% .322 8.7 4.5 1.1 9.0 1.47 2.65 6.4 0.7
2005 PME AA 5 2 0 14 14 87.0 59 23 83 9 0% -.417 6.1 2.4 0.9 8.6 0.94 2.48 0.0 0.0
2006 BOS MLB 4 2 35 59 0 68.3 40 13 75 3 39% .224 5.3 1.7 0.4 9.9 0.78 0.92 22.9 2.2
2007 BOS MLB 1 3 37 59 0 58.3 30 15 84 5 29% .216 4.6 2.3 0.8 13.0 0.77 1.85 16.4 1.6
2008 BOS MLB 5 4 41 67 0 69.3 58 8 77 4 51% .293 7.5 1.0 0.5 10.0 0.95 2.34 22.3 2.2
2009 BOS MLB 1 1 38 66 0 68.0 54 24 76 5 28% .278 7.1 3.2 0.7 10.1 1.15 1.85 24.3 2.5
2010 BOS MLB 5 7 37 65 0 67.0 57 28 76 7 40% .287 7.7 3.8 0.9 10.2 1.27 3.90 16.4 1.7
2011 BOS MLB 4 1 31 63 0 64.3 50 10 87 3 38% .309 7.0 1.4 0.4 12.2 0.93 2.94 22.1 2.4
2012 PHI MLB 5 6 38 70 0 70.0 56 18 92 8 44% .296 7.2 2.3 1.0 11.8 1.06 2.44 12.5 1.3
2013 PHI MLB 5 1 29 61 0 61.7 59 11 57 6 42% .296 8.6 1.6 0.9 8.3 1.14 2.92 7.4 0.8
2014 PHI MLB 2 3 39 66 0 66.3 45 15 63 2 44% .247 6.1 2.0 0.3 8.5 0.90 2.04 11.2 1.2

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 1005 0.5572 0.5582 0.7843 0.7161 0.3596 0.8304 0.6688 0.2157
2009 1166 0.5360 0.4940 0.7847 0.6560 0.3068 0.8317 0.6687 0.2153
2010 1147 0.5022 0.5170 0.7399 0.6389 0.3923 0.8560 0.5491 0.2601
2011 998 0.5351 0.5557 0.6949 0.7135 0.3728 0.7795 0.5087 0.3032
2012 1136 0.5018 0.5097 0.7478 0.6474 0.3710 0.8049 0.6476 0.2522
2013 958 0.4969 0.4979 0.7841 0.6597 0.3382 0.8439 0.6687 0.2159
2014 1012 0.5128 0.5178 0.7615 0.6917 0.3347 0.8106 0.6545 0.2385
Career74220.52010.52070.75680.67330.35370.82290.62360.243

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-05-21 2014-05-24 DTD 3 3 Right Shoulder Cartilage Injury Labrum - -
2014-05-11 2014-05-17 DTD 6 4 - Neck Soreness - -
2014-04-21 2014-04-22 DTD 1 1 - General Medical Illness - -
2013-06-02 2013-06-04 DTD 2 2 - General Medical Illness - -
2013-03-05 2013-03-09 Camp 4 0 - General Medical Illness - -
2011-02-22 2011-03-01 Camp 7 0 General Medical Illness -
2010-04-27 2010-04-28 DTD 1 1 Low Back Tightness -
2009-09-16 2009-09-18 DTD 2 2 Low Back Tightness Slipped During Warmup -
2009-06-08 2009-06-10 DTD 2 1 General Medical Illness Food Poisoning -
2006-09-02 2006-10-01 DTD 29 26 Right Shoulder Subluxation -
2006-05-06 2006-05-10 DTD 4 3 Low Back Tightness -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2016 PHI $
2015 PHI $13,000,000
2014 PHI $13,000,000
2013 PHI $13,000,000
2012 PHI $11,000,058
2011 BOS $12,000,000
2010 BOS $9,350,000
2009 BOS $6,250,000
2008 BOS $775,000
2007 BOS $425,500
2006 BOS $335,400
YearsDescriptionSalary
8 yrPrevious$53,135,958
2011Current$13,000,000
9 yrPvs + Cur$66,135,958
1 yrFuture$13,000,000
10 yrTotal$79,135,958

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
8 y 64 dJoe Bick4 years/$50M (2012-15), 2016 option

Details
  • 4 years/$50M (2012-15), plus 2016 option. Signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 11/14/11. 12:$11,000,058, 13-15: $13M annually. 16: $13M vesting option, guaranteed with 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 games finished in 2014-15. Limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 17 clubs).
  • 1 year/$12M (2011). Re-signed by Boston 1/18/11 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$9.35M (2010). Re-signed by Boston1/19/10 (avoided arbitration). Performance bonus: $50,000 for 60 games finished.
  • 1 year/$6.25M (2009). Re-signed by Boston 1/20/09 (avoided arbitration). Award bonuses.
  • 1 year/$0.775M (2008). Re-signed by Boston 3/6/08. Award bonuses.
  • 1 year/$0.4255M (2007). Re-signed by Boston 3/07. Award bonuses.
  • 1 year/$0.3354M (2006). Re-signed by Boston 2/06.
  • 1 year (2005). Contract purchased 7/05.
  • Drafted by Boston 2003 (4-114) (Mississippi State). $264,500 signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 0 0 45 0 0 69.5 45 14 81 5 .261 0.84 1.68 1.82 0.0 0.0
80o 0 0 41 0 0 63.6 44 14 74 5 .276 0.91 2.02 2.19 0.0 0.0
70o 0 0 38 0 0 59.4 44 13 69 5 .287 0.96 2.26 2.46 0.0 0.0
60o 0 0 36 0 0 55.9 43 13 65 5 .297 1.00 2.48 2.69 0.0 0.0
50o 0 0 34 0 0 52.7 42 13 62 5 .305 1.05 2.68 2.91 0.0 0.0
40o 0 0 32 0 0 49.5 41 13 58 5 .314 1.09 2.89 3.14 0.0 0.0
30o 0 0 30 0 0 46.2 40 12 54 5 .324 1.13 3.11 3.38 0.0 0.0
20o 0 0 27 0 0 42.4 39 12 50 5 .334 1.19 3.37 3.66 0.0 0.0
10o 0 0 24 0 0 37.3 36 11 44 4 .350 1.27 3.74 4.06 0.0 0.0
Weighted Mean00340052.14113615.3031.032.652.880.00.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
16% 44% 32% 11% 93%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201534313962066551970740.3031.133.173.447.52.69.61.01.2
201635323961065541470740.2991.052.742.987.51.99.71.01.5
201736313149052431554640.3011.123.093.367.52.69.41.01.0
201837212946049441252540.3151.143.283.568.12.29.60.90.8
201938212744047411249540.3091.143.223.507.92.39.41.00.8
202039212743046401147540.3101.123.283.577.92.29.31.00.7
202140212744046421247540.3101.173.303.598.22.39.11.00.7
202241212642044411145540.3131.173.473.778.32.29.11.00.6
202342212439042391041540.3131.183.493.808.42.28.91.10.6

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
25.913.715.84.35.17.764.8

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 94 J.J. Putz 2010 3.00
2 93 Scot Shields 2009 7.13
3 90 Francisco Cordero 2008 3.58
4 90 Heath Bell 2011 2.87
5 89 Pedro Feliciano 2010 3.45
6 88 Robb Nen 2003 0.00 DNP
7 87 Jason Frasor 2011 3.90
8 87 Jeremy Affeldt 2012 3.27
9 87 Hideki Okajima 2009 3.39
10 86 Rich Gossage 1985 2.39
11 86 Fernando Rodney 2010 4.37
12 86 Matt Thornton 2010 2.67
13 86 Brian Fuentes 2009 3.93
14 86 Damaso Marte 2008 4.02
15 85 Brendan Donnelly 2005 4.13
16 85 Joaquin Benoit 2011 3.39
17 84 Kevin Gregg 2011 5.28
18 84 Jose Valverde 2011 2.61
19 84 Chad Qualls 2012 5.85
20 83 Doug Jones 1990 2.77
21 83 Eric Plunk 1997 5.07
22 83 Mike Jackson 1998 1.55
23 83 Rafael Soriano 2013 3.24
24 83 B.J. Ryan 2009 6.53
25 82 Michael Gonzalez 2011 5.23
26 82 Trevor Hoffman 2001 3.73
27 82 Hoyt Wilhelm 1956 4.77
28 82 George Sherrill 2010 7.43
29 82 Joe Nathan 2008 1.73
30 82 Billy Wagner 2005 1.97
31 81 Roberto Hernandez 1998 4.16
32 81 Sparky Lyle 1978 3.71
33 81 Jose Mesa 1999 5.50
34 81 Jon Rauch 2012 4.37
35 81 Mike Adams 2012 3.61
36 81 Mike Marshall 1976 4.35
37 80 Matt Guerrier 2012 3.86
38 80 Ramon Hernandez 1974 2.88
39 80 John Hiller 1976 2.75
40 80 Matt Wise 2009 0.00 DNP
41 80 Rafael Betancourt 2008 5.32
42 80 Matt Lindstrom 2013 3.41
43 80 Brandon Lyon 2013 5.24
44 80 Paul Shuey 2004 0.00 DNP
45 80 Rudy Seanez 2002 6.82
46 79 Dennys Reyes 2010 3.55
47 79 Jason Grilli 2010 0.00 DNP
48 79 Bob Wickman 2002 5.77
49 79 Mike Timlin 1999 4.29
50 79 Will Ohman 2011 4.39
51 79 John Grabow 2012 0.00 DNP
52 79 Jay Howell 1989 1.69
53 78 Dave Smith 1988 4.08
54 78 Joe Borowski 2004 8.02
55 78 Arthur Rhodes 2003 4.17
56 78 J.C. Romero 2009 3.24
57 78 Eric Gagne 2009 0.00 DNP
58 77 Ricardo Rincon 2003 3.42
59 77 Ryan Dempster 2010 4.60
60 77 Jeff Montgomery 1995 3.84
61 77 Norm Charlton 1996 4.52
62 77 Jim Mecir 2003 6.08
63 76 Gene Garber 1981 3.53
64 76 John Wetteland 2000 5.25
65 76 Jim Kern 1982 3.72
66 75 Mike MacDougal 2010 7.23
67 75 Bruce Ruffin 1997 6.14
68 75 Matt Belisle 2013 4.56
69 75 Willie Hernandez 1988 3.33
70 75 Scott Linebrink 2010 4.87
71 74 Peter Moylan 2012 5.40
72 74 Jeff Shaw 2000 4.55
73 74 Kiko Calero 2008 3.86
74 74 Danys Baez 2011 7.00
75 74 Mariano Rivera 2003 1.91
76 74 Carl Willis 1994 7.28
77 74 Mark Eichhorn 1994 2.54
78 74 Kerry Wood 2010 3.33
79 74 Joe Sambito 1985 15.19
80 74 Grant Balfour 2011 2.47
81 73 Aaron Heilman 2012 0.00 DNP
82 73 Tim Burke 1992 5.61
83 73 Jerry Don Gleaton 1991 4.42
84 73 Justin Speier 2007 3.06
85 73 Lee Smith 1991 2.34
86 73 Akinori Otsuka 2005 4.02
87 73 Grant Jackson 1976 2.42
88 73 Alberto Castillo 2009 3.75
89 73 Tippy Martinez 1983 2.61
90 72 Mike Henneman 1995 2.32
91 72 Roy Face 1961 4.21
92 72 Kent Tekulve 1980 3.87
93 72 Bob Howry 2007 3.43
94 72 Michael Wuertz 2012 0.00 DNP
95 72 Matt Miller 2005 1.82
96 71 Troy Percival 2003 4.01
97 71 Guillermo Mota 2007 5.92
98 71 Steve Reed 1998 3.25
99 71 Donnie Moore 1987 4.05
100 71 Braden Looper 2008 4.57

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .220 .272 .341 .223
11 vs R (Multi) .240 .280 .341 .232
18 Split (Multi) -.020 -.008 .000 -.008
19 LgAvg (Multi) .010 .024 .026 .019
30 vs L (2013) .241 .282 .362 .230
31 vs R (2013) .252 .277 .341 .234
38 Split (2013) -.011 .005 .021 -.003
39 LgAvg (2013) .010 .022 .028 .019

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).
2013 The first year of his lofty four-year, $50 million dollar contract (which can vest into a fifth for a total of $63 million) was a success despite some skill deterioration from 2011. Does Papelbon have three (maybe four) more years in him, though? It's tough to know, but even if he does, the Phillies shouldn’t have paid him this much to be the guinea pigs, especially with some of the big relief arms in their system already matriculating their way toward the majors. This is a no-upside deal for the team, and a tinge of downside may already be poking through in the form of Papelbon's home-run rate in Citizen’s Bank Park. It led to career-worst 1.0 allowed per nine innings, and if that's the start of growing a trend, it's going to get ugly in a hurry.
2012 There are eight relievers in baseball history who have, in their first seven seasons, posted a cumulative 300 IP with an ERA below 3.00 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio above 3.0: Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Bryan Harvey, Billy Wagner, John Wetteland, Mike Adams, Rod Beck, and, after a spectacular year punctuated by a terrible finish, Papelbon. In fact, his K/BB (4.43) is the best on the list over those first seven seasons. Perhaps because of his outsized personality or his conspicuous habit of over-relying on his fastball, many do not realize that Papelbon has been on one of the best runs any modern closer has ever strung together. The Phillies offered him $50 million, and like all relief pitchers offered that much money, he accepted. Every four-year deal given to a reliever is an enormous risk, but Papelbon is one of the best relievers in baseball.
2011 Those unfamiliar with the ins and outs of Papelbon's 2010 may wonder what all the fuss was about. His 3.90 ERA was high but not hideous, and he struck out over 10 batters per nine. However, a peek at his individual performances tells a darker tale: when Papelbon could not command his splitter, he threw heater after heater, and the opposition teed off. His control didn't recover from its previous decline, and after posting a 6.6 strikeout-walk ratio from 2006-2008, Papelbon has managed only a 2.9 ratio over his last 135 innings. Despite his performance issues, calls to remove him from the closer's role are misguided—Boston would be better-served by letting Daniel Bard act as a "relief ace" in the highest-leverage situations while confining Papelbon to the relative safety of the ninth, where he can remember his impending free agency before he decides to throw another predictable fastball.
2010 Despite his ALDS meltdown, Papelbon remains one of the most dominant closers in baseball. If the Red Sox are hoping Bard will emerge to replace him in anticipation of Papelbon’s free agency after the 2011 season, it’s motivated purely by finance. Save for his increased walk rate, which was hardly alarming, nothing about Papelbon’s 2009 season suggests the Sox can expect anything less than continued dominance from their closer going forward.
2009 At times, Papelbon is a one-pitch closer, since he mostly throws fastballs, with only the occasional splitter to finish off a hitter. That trend was even more pronounced in 2008, as Papelbon threw even more fastballs, partially to combat the lack of swings and misses on splitters in the dirt. His declining strikeout rate reflects the change in hitters' approaches to the pitch, but he compensated by dramatically improving his ground-ball rate. The dip in splitters and wasted pitches dropped his pitches per plate appearance from 4.1 to 3.8, which also helped him lower his walk rate. As long as he displays this level of control, Sox fans will have nothing to worry about.
2008 Papelbon is not literally "unhittable." Nearly two-thirds of batters who faced him last year didn't strike out, and about 14 percent actually got hits. To watch him, however, is to wonder how those events happened. By the end of the year he was mixing his splitter in with his fastball with such effectiveness that hitters had no chance, thus his 10 2/3 shutout innings in the postseason. The only negative is his low innings totals, which keep him behind Joe Nathan on the "best closers" list.
2007 Even after the Arroyo trade, a surplus of starters ticketed Papelbon for a setup role, his success out of the bullpen down the 2005 stretch having made such an impression on Terry Francona. When Foulke`s knees prevented the nominal closer from getting enough innings in spring training, Francona called Papelbon`s number, and after 10 saves in 10 April chances, there was no going back. Papelbon didn`t give up his first run until May 3, and by the time he gave up his fourth, he`d racked up 30 saves with the calendar showing August. Fatigue soon compromised his mechanics, and the team shut him down before Labor Day when an MRI showed a `transient subluxation event` (a.k.a. a tired rotator cuff). Amid much debate about his future role, Papelbon expressed a strong desire to return to the rotation in 2007 and the Sox brass concurred. Nothing less than the outcome of the AL East may ride on this decision. If Papelbon was guaranteed to be as dominant as a starter, the move would be a no-brainer, but all signs (including the dual PECOTAs above) suggest he would be greatly diminished by changing roles. Then again, the health of Papelbon`s shoulder may force the Red Sox`s hand.
2005 A dominating reliever at Mississippi State, Papelbon is another of the 2003 draft class doing well for himself in a thin system. His 153 strikeouts in 129.2 innings were impressive, though he was old for A-ball. He's a big boy—6'4", 230—who was getting by with just a deceptive mid-90s fastball before he decided to mix in his new change-up and breaking ball, to great results. He held up well under the starter workload in his first full pro season after being closely watched last year and will start 2005 in the rotation in Double-A.

BP Articles

Jonathan Papelbon is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Relief PitchersIan Lefkowitz2014-03-07
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 75 Relief PitchersBret Sayre2014-03-06
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Three-Year Projections: Relief PitchersCraig Goldstein2014-03-05
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessState of the Position: ClosersBen Carsley2014-03-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Players to Target: Relief PitchersBP Fantasy Staff2014-03-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessMock Auction Analysis: AL- and NL-Only Mike Gianella2014-02-20
The Lineup Card: Eight Players We Expect to Decline in 2014Baseball Prospectus2014-02-19
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Choosing the Brave LifeR.J. Anderson2014-02-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: Philadelphia PhilliesMike Gianella2014-02-14
This article requires BP Premium accessSkewed Left: Bobby Abreu, the Phillies, and Other Reunions That Might Make SenseZachary Levine2014-01-23
This article requires BP Premium accessBaseball's Seven Wonders: Mariano Rivera's Postseason PerformanceSam Miller2014-01-14
Overthinking It: The Trouble with Forecasting ChemistryBen Lindbergh2014-01-10
Transaction Analysis: White Sox Sign Scott Downs, Complete Groundball BullpenBen Lindbergh2013-12-20
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This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Another Smart St. Louis Signing, Another Typical Cleveland CloserBen Lindbergh2013-12-16
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: AFL First Pitch Forums Draft, Part TwoPaul Sporer2013-11-21
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: September 25, 2013Clint Chisam2013-09-25
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Looking Back, Looking ForwardMike Gianella2013-09-19
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Looking AheadMike Gianella2013-09-12
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Oh, BrothersMike Gianella2013-08-29
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This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 20, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-20
This article requires BP Premium accessBaseball Therapy: Saving the SaveRussell A. Carleton2013-08-20
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Mo Moves DownMike Gianella2013-08-15
The Lineup Card: Nine of Our Favorite Pitcher ConversionsBaseball Prospectus2013-08-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Meeting the CriteriaMike Gianella2013-08-08
The Week in Quotes: July 29-August 4Chris Mosch2013-08-05
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The Week in Quotes: July 29-August 4Satchel Price2013-08-05
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: August 2, 2013Clint Chisam2013-08-02
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Deadline FalloutMike Gianella2013-08-01
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Trade Winds BlowingMike Gianella2013-07-18
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: July 15, 2013Clint Chisam2013-07-15
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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 242: The All-No-Bang-for-Your-Buck TeamSam Miller2013-07-12
BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 242: The All-No-Bang-for-Your-Buck TeamBen Lindbergh2013-07-12
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: Time for Phillies to Rebuild, or Refill?R.J. Anderson2013-07-11
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The Lineup Card: 10 Hollywood Endings for Major-League TeamsBaseball Prospectus2013-06-26
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: June 25, 2013Clint Chisam2013-06-25
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: What Have You Done for Me Lately?Mike Gianella2013-06-20
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Stash List: Moving Beyond the Super TwoBret Sayre2013-06-18
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Buyers and SellersMike Gianella2013-06-13
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This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 29, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Your Annual Reminder: Don't Pay for SavesJason Collette2013-05-29
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 26, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessBullpen Report: Introducing TiersMike Gianella2013-05-23
Overthinking It: The Pitches No Zone Can ContainBen Lindbergh2013-05-21
This article requires BP Premium accessDaily Roundup: Around the League: May 12th, 2013Clint Chisam2013-05-12
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Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 5, 2013Clint Chisam2013-04-05
Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 5, 2013Joe Hamrahi2013-04-05
Fantasy Mailbag: Much Ado About PitchingBP Fantasy Staff2013-03-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Tier Rankings: Relief PitchersPaul Singman2013-03-28
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Saves Are EverywhereJason Collette2013-03-20
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessPre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 40 Fantasy RelieversPaul Singman2013-03-13
Baseball ProGUESTus: The Tyranny of AcronymsDavid Murphy2013-03-12
This article requires BP Premium accessSobsequy: Notable NL Minor-League Free Agent SigneesAdam Sobsey2013-02-27
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The Week in Quotes: February 18-24Jonah Birenbaum2013-02-25
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This article requires BP Premium accessArbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Sergio RomoBen Lindbergh2013-02-15
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Arbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Jim JohnsonBradford Doolittle2013-02-08
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This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Phunky Strategy for PhillyJohn Perrotto2013-01-24
This article requires BP Premium accessPunk Hits: A Modest Proposal for the MLB NetworkIan Miller2012-12-19
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Keeper Reaper: Relievers for 12/12/12Dan Mennella2012-12-12
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Closing in on Ninth-Inning MenDerek Carty2012-11-30
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This article requires BP Premium accessIn A Pickle: Sweep Out The Ashes in the MorningJason Wojciechowski2012-10-25
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Low-Cost Saves for Your Keeper LeagueDerek Carty2012-09-24
The Lineup Card: Six Toolsy Players Who Haven't Put It TogetherBaseball Prospectus2012-09-19
Painting the Black: How to Fail at ManagingR.J. Anderson2012-09-12
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessValue Picks: Second, Short, and Catcher for 8/27/12Josh Shepardson2012-08-27
Resident Fantasy Genius: A Summer Success StoryDerek Carty2012-08-16
This article requires BP Premium accessPunk Hits: The Fabulous Major-League Baseball Rock n’ Roll Revue Ian Miller2012-08-15
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Padres Get A Street DealR.J. Anderson2012-07-29
BP Unfiltered: Jerry Blevins, Non-VultureSam Miller2012-07-28
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This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: The Brief Wondrous Life of a One-Year DealBen Lindbergh2012-07-10
The Week in Quotes: July 2-July 8Jonah Birenbaum2012-07-09
The Week in Quotes: July 2-July 8Matthew Rocco2012-07-09
The Week in Quotes: July 2-July 8Hudson Belinsky2012-07-09
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This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: Is Throwing Strikes Enough?R.J. Anderson2012-06-04
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: The Phallin' PhilliesJay Jaffe2012-05-09
Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 7Larry Granillo2012-05-08
The Lineup Card: 10 Things Learned in AprilBaseball Prospectus2012-05-03
What You Need to Know: Friday, April 27Daniel Rathman2012-04-27
This article requires BP Premium accessOut of Left Field: The Worst Baseball Discussions We HaveMatthew Kory2012-04-16
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: The Phillies' AchillesJohn Perrotto2012-04-05
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This article requires BP Premium accessCollateral Damage: Spring Tune-UpsStephani Bee2012-04-02
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This article requires BP Premium accessOverthinking It: Are the Phillies Too Old to Win?Ben Lindbergh2012-03-30
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Out of Left Field: The Art of Enjoying Spring TrainingMatthew Kory2012-03-05
This article requires BP Premium accessHeartburn Hardball: Starting OverJonathan Bernhardt2012-03-02
The Stats Go Marching In: The Art of Handling the Pitching StaffMax Marchi2012-02-24
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason PreviewDerek Carty2012-02-22
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This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason PreviewJason Collette2012-02-20
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Tier Rankings: ClosersDerek Carty2012-02-16
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This article requires BP Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Winners and LosersDerek Carty2011-12-19
The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed PitchersNate Silver2011-12-15
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The BP First Take: Wednesday, December 14Daniel Rathman2011-12-14
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Wezen-Ball: The Muppet ShowLarry Granillo2011-11-23
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: A Ranger Comes to TownJay Jaffe2011-11-18
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Resident Fantasy Genius: Reviewing "Clubhouse Confidential"Derek Carty2011-11-14
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: St. Louis CardinalsESPN Insider2011-10-31
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: St. Louis CardinalsKevin Goldstein2011-10-31
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: St. Louis CardinalsBen Lindbergh2011-10-31
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Fantasy Rumor Mill for 10/27/11Derek Carty2011-10-27
Baseball ProGUESTus: When 100 Tiles Meets 27 OutsDiane Firstman2011-10-14
This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Philadelphia PhilliesSteven Goldman2011-10-10
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One-Hoppers: The Team Entropy All-StarsJay Jaffe2011-09-29
On the Beat: A Date Which Will Live in InfamyJohn Perrotto2011-09-29
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: A Night in the Life of Team EntropyJay Jaffe2011-09-28
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This article requires BP Premium accessKiss'Em Goodbye: Baltimore OriolesKevin Goldstein2011-09-12
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessResident Fantasy Genius: Stockpiling ClosersDerek Carty2011-09-12
Transaction Analysis: Texas GunslingersJason Parks2011-07-31
Transaction Analysis: Texas GunslingersR.J. Anderson2011-07-31
Value Picks: Relievers for 7/14/11Mike Petriello2011-07-14
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Straight from the CommissionerJohn Perrotto2011-07-13
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The Week in Quotes: May 30-June 5Alex Carnevale2011-06-06
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Divide and Conquer, AL East: The Pen's the ThingBen Kabak2011-04-01
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Q&A: Bobby JenksDavid Laurila2011-04-01
Prospectus Hit and Run: Wake of the QuakeJay Jaffe2011-03-18
BP Unfiltered: Cactus Action, Ranger DangerChristina Kahrl2011-03-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Focus: Pre-season Fantasy PredictionsBaseball Prospectus2011-03-17
This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: Relievers and ArbitrationR.J. Anderson2011-03-16
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Transaction Analysis: Thornton's Payday and a Future Full of Zaun TimeChristina Kahrl2011-03-08
Team Injury Projection: Boston Red SoxMarc Normandin2011-03-07
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This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Red Sox RebootJohn Perrotto2011-03-07
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Fantasy Beat: BP Scoresheet Early Draft PrepRob McQuown2011-02-07
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Five Moves the AL East Should Have MadeJay Jaffe2011-02-03
Wezen-Ball: The 2011 Preview Magazines Are Here!Larry Granillo2011-02-02
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This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction of the Day: Soriano in StripesChristina Kahrl2011-01-14
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On the Beat: Mr. Fix ItJohn Perrotto2010-12-24
Prospectus Perspective: Yankee DramaChristina Kahrl2010-11-30
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This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit List: Big Hits and Near MissesJay Jaffe2010-08-13
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BP Unfiltered: Behr or Bull: D.J. CarrascoJesse Behr2010-07-30
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Transaction Action: ALtruismsChristina Kahrl2010-07-21
BP Unfiltered: The Paper Trail of June 26John Perrotto2010-06-26
Prospectus Hit List: The Ax EffectJay Jaffe2010-06-24
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: AL QuadrilleChristina Kahrl2010-06-17
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BP Unfiltered: UPDATED AL Projected Opening Day RostersJohn Perrotto2010-04-01
The Week in Quotes: March 22-28Alex Carnevale2010-03-29
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The Year in Quotes: The Highs and Lows of 2009Alex Carnevale2009-12-31
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Voting for Real: AL Rookie of the YearChristina Kahrl2009-11-16
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-07-24 19:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think about Ken Giles and Vic Black? Saves opp in August and Sept?
(Chris from Siem Reap)
Both situations are fluid, I think Giles takes over if Jonathan Papelbon gets moved, and Vic Black might just take that job in Queens. I would put more stock in Giles but both could see saves. I like both guys. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-04-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Among the pitchers showing early losses/gains in velocity, it seems like the media has pounced on Jonathan Papelbon even though the numbers show him to be throwing the same (mediocre) stuff as last year. Any other pitcher who you predict could have significant changes in effectiveness based on velocity alone? Too early to worry about Stephen Strasburg missing 1.5 MPH? Will Brandon McCarthy's uptick help him longterm?
(Scott from LA)
Totally agree on Paps. His key is FB command, and 3 innings is not enough to judge where he's at there.

Stras is somewhat worrisome because it comes paired with a weaker mechanical foundation than in the past. Low velo's are common in April, and I was very encouraged by the overall jump in velo in his last start compared to his outing on Opening Day (nearly +2 mph). It's too early to jump off the bridge, but there is some mechanical basis to calm our previously-held enthusiasm.

McCarthy's uptick is encouraging, though more kinetic energy in the system could be a double-edged sword for a player whose scapula doesn't hold under the rigors of pitching, so the question of "long term" is still wide open.

On the jukebox: Colin Hay, "Overkill" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-08-08 17:30:00 (link to chat)Jimmy Nelson, Chris Owings, Brandon Workman, Tyler Skaggs, and Johnny Cueto just got traded for R.A. Dickey, Jonathan Papelbon, Cliff Lee, and Adam Dunn in my league. Not a fan of the veto so I wont veto this trade in my league, but just how lopsided is this for the side receiving Lee, Dickey, etc.?
(Gary from Georgia)
Hi Gary:

It depends on if your league has contracts or allows you to slot guys into rounds if you have a draft league. Cueto is a potentially strong keep assuming health and Skaggs has a nice ceiling. I've seen leagues where getting Cueto and Skaggs will net you four players, and it's not like Dickey or Dunn have been anything close to elite. It sounds like this is atypical for your league, though. The answer to these types of questions often depend more on your league culture than anything else. (Mike Gianella)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)How do I value Addison Reed if I just started a dynasty rebuild? I know closers should be the first thing to go in a rebuild, but I can't help but believe he's relatively stable and likely to help me when I compete again in 2-3 years. Thanks
(JoeTinker from Chicago)
Here is a list of all closers who recorded 25 or more saves in 2010: Brian Wilson (48), Heath Bell (47), Rafael Soriano (45), Joakim Soria (43), Matt Capps (42), Neftali Feliz (40), Francisco Cordero (40), Carlos Marmol (38), Billy Wagner (37), Jonathan Papelbon (37), Kevin Gregg (37), Mariano Rivera (33), David Aardsma (31), Juan Oviedo (30), Bobby Jenks (27), Ryan Franklin (27), Brad Lidge (27), Jose Valverde (26), Francisco Rodriguez (25) and Andrew Bailey (25). (Bret Sayre)
2013-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have an intense dislike for Miguel Cabrera that burns as bright as your (and my) love for Allen Craig. That said, should I avoid Miggy in my auction, or go after if and trade him after the draft?
(Jonah from Phoenix, AZ)
I never let my personal disdain cloud my fantasy judgment. I'd even roster Jonathan Papelbon. Why not just go for Braun, Stanton, Trout, Kemp types instead of having to worry about finagling a trade? (Paul Sporer)
2013-01-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)With David Wells now retired for several years, which MLB player has taken on the mantle of "Most Likely to Adjust Himself (Down There) After Every Pitch"?
(Paul from DC)
I got a good laugh out of this one, Paul. Jonathan Papelbon seems like the obvious answer. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Jay. I was having a conversation with some friends and we were wondering whether the current iteration of the Red Sox has any Hall of Famers on it. What do you think? Also, if you haven't addressed this already, Posada: yes or no? Thanks for the chat!
(mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR)
There's nobody who's a lock, that's for sure. Youkilis doesn't even have 1,000 hits yet, let alone the era's de facto minimum of 2,000. Ortiz has the PED connection and the DH problem. Varitek doesn't even have Posada's credentials. Pedroia and Ellsbury have the potential but they're still mostly potential as far as building cases go - they don't even have good peak scores yet. Late note: I completely forgot about Adrian Gonzalez, who has three straight seasons of at least 6.0 WARP and doesn't turn 30 until May - he's got a stronger JAWS-based case than Pedroia so far. H/T to Cliff Corcoran for pointing out the omission.

Sad to say, the recent Red Sock who might have been building the best case for the Hall of Fame might be the guy who got away, Jonathan Papelbon, in that - much as I loathe him - he's got the talent to wind up better than Trevor Hoffman, if not Mariano Rivera. Still a looooong ways to go on that front, too. (Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special)
2010-09-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Please fill in the blank. This is the best NL Rookie Class since ________ (blank). Thanks! Bobby
(Bobby from New York)
Are we going strictly by league? Because the 2007 class had Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Hamilton among hitters, Tim Lincecum and Joakim Soria among pitchers. 2006 had Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Andre Ethier, Prince Fielder, Ian Kinsler, Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon (who used to not suck), Jonathan Broxton (ditto)...

There's a lot to be excited about with this year's rookie class (Posey, Heyward, Santana, Stanton) but I'm in no rush to appoint them the best class of the past five years until I see much more. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Marc, thanks for the chat. Assuming, as it seems relatively safe to do, that the Red Sox miss the playoffs, what do you do this winter if you're Theo Epstein?
(mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR)
Re-sign Beltre, let Victor walk (picks!), install Saltalamacchia as the starting catcher, pick up Ortiz' option for 2011 rather than signing him to a longer deal with fewer dollars, try to convince Bill Hall to stay for something less than the $7.5M Milwaukee was just paying him, trade Jacoby Ellsbury for a front line relief pitcher + prospect, sign Carl Crawford, shift Kalish to center and hope he doesn't put on any more bulk that will push him to a corner, examine the trade market for Jonathan Papelbon in the off chance someone is willing to give up top prospects for his services. If Papelbon goes, sign Heath Bell. (Marc Normandin)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)So is Feliz going to get Paplebbon'd and Chamberlain'd long term?
(Bobby from Iraq)
I don't think so, not yet. He's been great out of the bullpen, but I don't think he's been Jonathan Papelbon levels of great. It makes no sense to sacrifice 130 innings in order to keep him in the pen long-term--you have to be pretty amazing to make that worth it, something Tommy Bennett and I discussed earlier in the season. (Marc Normandin)
2009-09-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's wrong with Jonathan Papelbon?
(Eric Gagne from Canada)
He was great in 2008 because his low walk rate made up for the dip in strikeouts. This year he's around the same K rate, but with more than triple the walk rate of 2008. His fastball has nowhere near the run value it used to, which isn't because of a velocity drop and more because everyone knows it's coming. The less he uses his splitter, the more he uses his fastball. (Marc Normandin)
2008-05-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Why isn't Carlos Marmol starting?
(Rob from Bloomington, IL)
Because I think this is one of those Jonathan Papelbon cases where a guy has so outperformed expectations in the bullpen that you don't tinker with that. I think I'd honestly rather try Kerry Wood in the rotation and make Marmol my closer. (Nate Silver)
2008-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)The notion of moving Joakim Soria to the rotation... do it now, do it never, or do it later?
(BL from Bozeman)
He's had some problems in the past, and when you're as good as he's been initially in a relief role, as Jonathan Papelbon demonstrates, it becomes very hard to move past the automatic instinct to not fix what isn't broken. (Christina Kahrl)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Jonathan Papelbon has thrown 7,862 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph), also mixing in a Splitter (87mph) and Slider (81mph).