Biographical

Portrait of Bert Blyleven

Bert Blyleven PTwins

Twins Player Cards | Twins Team Audit | Twins Depth Chart

Career Summary
Years IP W L SV SO ERA WARP
22 4970 287 250 0 3701 3.31 63.7
Birth Date4-6-1951
Height6' 3"
Weight200 lbs
BatsR
ThrowsR
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
1970 MIN 19 27 25 164.0 158.0 6.0 10 9 0 0 17 1 675 143 66 58 17 223 47 41 2 135 3.18 3.03 4.14 19.7 1.8
1971 MIN 20 38 38 278.3 278.3 0.0 16 15 0 0 23 5 1126 267 95 87 21 379 59 58 5 224 2.81 2.42 3.13 43.9 5.2
1972 MIN 21 39 38 287.3 286.3 1.0 17 17 0 0 31 4 1159 247 93 87 22 362 69 62 10 228 2.73 2.50 3.28 28.7 3.6
1973 MIN 22 40 40 325.0 325.0 0.0 20 17 0 0 29 4 1321 296 109 91 16 408 67 63 9 258 2.52 2.33 2.89 77.4 8.3
1974 MIN 23 37 37 281.0 281.0 0.0 17 17 0 0 24 6 1149 244 99 83 14 334 77 74 9 249 2.66 2.36 2.97 58.9 6.4
1975 MIN 24 35 35 275.7 275.7 0.0 15 10 0 0 19 8 1104 219 104 92 24 333 84 82 4 233 3.00 2.96 3.83 34.9 3.8
1976 MIN 25 12 12 95.3 95.3 0.0 4 5 0 0 10 0 406 101 39 33 3 134 35 30 4 75 3.12 2.68 3.15 14.4 1.6
1976 TEX 25 24 24 202.3 202.3 0.0 9 11 0 0 16 5 819 182 67 62 11 244 46 45 8 144 2.76 2.70 4.07 8.8 1.0
1977 TEX 26 30 30 234.7 234.7 0.0 14 12 0 0 20 4 935 181 81 71 20 267 69 68 7 182 2.72 3.27 4.16 24.0 2.5
1978 PIT 27 34 34 243.7 243.7 0.0 14 10 0 0 24 3 1011 217 94 82 17 318 66 61 6 182 3.03 2.92 3.38 35.2 4.2
1979 PIT 28 37 37 237.3 237.3 0.0 12 5 0 0 23 2 1018 238 102 95 21 354 92 84 6 172 3.60 3.63 4.18 21.9 1.5
1980 PIT 29 34 32 216.7 214.7 2.0 8 13 0 2 20 3 907 219 102 92 20 328 59 54 0 168 3.82 3.21 4.17 10.0 1.0
1981 CLE 30 20 20 159.3 159.3 0.0 11 7 0 0 15 2 644 145 52 51 9 197 40 39 5 107 2.88 2.78 3.51 19.0 2.1
1982 CLE 31 4 4 20.3 20.3 0.0 2 2 0 0 2 0 89 16 14 11 2 28 11 11 0 19 4.87 3.72 4.51 2.0 0.2
1983 CLE 32 24 24 156.3 156.3 0.0 7 10 0 0 12 2 660 160 74 68 8 224 44 40 10 123 3.91 2.95 3.68 29.0 3.1
1984 CLE 33 33 32 245.0 242.3 2.7 19 7 0 0 21 5 1004 204 86 78 19 300 74 70 6 170 2.87 3.35 4.29 20.4 2.2
1985 CLE 34 23 23 179.7 179.7 0.0 9 11 0 0 10 6 743 163 76 65 14 244 49 48 7 129 3.26 3.25 3.93 24.6 2.6
1985 MIN 34 14 14 114.0 114.0 0.0 8 5 0 0 9 2 460 101 45 38 9 146 26 26 2 77 3.00 3.15 4.18 12.7 1.3
1986 MIN 35 36 36 271.7 271.7 0.0 17 14 0 0 21 6 1126 262 134 121 50 470 58 54 10 215 4.01 4.35 5.10 24.3 2.5
1987 MIN 36 37 37 267.0 267.0 0.0 15 12 0 0 23 4 1122 249 132 119 46 434 101 97 9 196 4.01 4.88 5.39 19.8 2.0
1988 MIN 37 33 33 207.3 207.3 0.0 10 17 0 0 12 2 895 240 128 125 21 354 51 50 16 145 5.43 3.71 4.36 25.9 2.8
1989 CAL 38 33 33 241.0 241.0 0.0 17 5 0 0 25 3 973 225 76 73 14 305 44 42 8 131 2.73 3.16 3.90 24.8 2.7
1990 CAL 39 23 23 134.0 134.0 0.0 8 7 0 0 10 0 578 163 85 78 15 249 25 25 7 69 5.24 3.95 4.80 6.9 0.7
1992 CAL 41 25 24 133.0 132.0 1.0 8 12 0 0 13 0 568 150 76 70 17 231 29 27 5 70 4.74 4.17 4.74 5.0 0.6
Career6926854970.04957.312.728725002429772049246322029183043068661322125115537013.313.183.92592.063.7

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
1970 MIN MLB 27 25 164.0 4.14 102 .240 .251 .316 .377 .254 .266 101 18.7 2.0 19.7 1.8
1971 MIN MLB 38 38 278.3 3.13 121 .244 .243 .311 .363 .259 .301 102 45.4 5.2 43.9 5.2
1972 MIN MLB 39 38 287.3 3.28 108 .235 .239 .303 .343 .253 .271 102 27.3 3.2 28.7 3.6
1973 MIN MLB 40 40 325.0 2.89 135 .228 .260 .328 .379 .264 .288 104 77.4 8.3 77.4 8.3
1974 MIN MLB 37 37 281.0 2.97 131 .229 .257 .319 .370 .260 .287 105 58.9 6.4 58.9 6.4
1975 MIN MLB 35 35 275.7 3.83 113 .224 .255 .325 .369 .260 .257 102 34.9 3.8 34.9 3.8
1976 MIN MLB 12 12 95.3 3.15 122 .259 .253 .315 .354 .258 .339 101 14.4 1.6 14.4 1.6
1976 TEX MLB 24 24 202.3 4.07 98 .230 .258 .317 .362 .260 .280 100 8.8 1.0 8.8 1.0
1977 TEX MLB 30 30 234.7 4.16 107 .220 .269 .329 .404 .263 .245 98 24.0 2.5 24.0 2.5
1978 PIT MLB 34 34 243.7 3.38 119 .235 .255 .318 .377 .257 .271 104 37.3 4.1 35.2 4.2
1979 PIT MLB 37 37 237.3 4.18 103 .258 .260 .319 .382 .252 .298 102 22.9 2.4 21.9 1.5
1980 PIT MLB 34 32 216.7 4.17 100 .250 .262 .318 .381 .255 .302 103 14.6 1.5 10.0 1.0
1981 CLE MLB 20 20 159.3 3.51 114 .236 .253 .315 .369 .260 .282 100 19.0 2.1 19.0 2.1
1982 CLE MLB 4 4 20.3 4.51 96 .269 .262 .314 .399 .262 .246 97 2.0 0.2 2.0 0.2
1983 CLE MLB 24 24 156.3 3.68 120 .253 .268 .327 .407 .268 .320 102 29.0 3.1 29.0 3.1
1984 CLE MLB 33 32 245.0 4.29 104 .226 .265 .325 .404 .268 .252 100 20.4 2.2 20.4 2.2
1985 CLE MLB 23 23 179.7 3.93 114 .240 .259 .325 .403 .266 .274 99 24.6 2.6 24.6 2.6
1985 MIN MLB 14 14 114.0 4.18 109 .232 .262 .324 .403 .265 .266 100 12.7 1.3 12.7 1.3
1986 MIN MLB 36 36 271.7 5.10 99 .255 .262 .329 .408 .268 .267 108 24.3 2.5 24.3 2.5
1987 MIN MLB 37 37 267.0 5.39 96 .253 .265 .331 .424 .265 .264 105 19.8 2.0 19.8 2.0
1988 MIN MLB 33 33 207.3 4.36 105 .278 .257 .320 .382 .264 .331 105 25.9 2.8 25.9 2.8
1989 CAL MLB 33 33 241.0 3.90 107 .233 .260 .323 .380 .263 .272 96 24.8 2.7 24.8 2.7
1990 CAL MLB 23 23 134.0 4.80 86 .293 .262 .328 .396 .265 .320 97 6.9 0.7 6.9 0.7
1992 CAL MLB 25 24 133.0 4.74 87 .280 .262 .330 .388 .268 .298 97 5.0 0.6 5.0 0.6
1992 MID AA 5 5 33.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1992 EDM AAA 2 2 11.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
1970 MIN MLB 10 9 0 27 25 164.0 143 47 135 17 49% .266 7.8 2.6 0.9 7.4 1.16 3.18 19.7 1.8
1971 MIN MLB 16 15 0 38 38 278.3 267 59 224 21 51% .301 8.6 1.9 0.7 7.2 1.17 2.81 43.9 5.2
1972 MIN MLB 17 17 0 39 38 287.3 247 69 228 22 49% .271 7.7 2.2 0.7 7.1 1.10 2.73 28.7 3.6
1973 MIN MLB 20 17 0 40 40 325.0 296 67 258 16 47% .288 8.2 1.9 0.4 7.1 1.12 2.52 77.4 8.3
1974 MIN MLB 17 17 0 37 37 281.0 244 77 249 14 57% .287 7.8 2.5 0.4 8.0 1.14 2.66 58.9 6.4
1975 MIN MLB 15 10 0 35 35 275.7 219 84 233 24 53% .257 7.1 2.7 0.8 7.6 1.10 3.00 34.9 3.8
1976 MIN MLB 4 5 0 12 12 95.3 101 35 75 3 47% .339 9.5 3.3 0.3 7.1 1.43 3.12 14.4 1.6
1976 TEX MLB 9 11 0 24 24 202.3 182 46 144 11 63% .280 8.1 2.0 0.5 6.4 1.13 2.76 8.8 1.0
1977 TEX MLB 14 12 0 30 30 234.7 181 69 182 20 58% .245 6.9 2.6 0.8 7.0 1.07 2.72 24.0 2.5
1978 PIT MLB 14 10 0 34 34 243.7 217 66 182 17 52% .271 8.0 2.4 0.6 6.7 1.16 3.03 35.2 4.2
1979 PIT MLB 12 5 0 37 37 237.3 238 92 172 21 49% .298 9.0 3.5 0.8 6.5 1.39 3.60 21.9 1.5
1980 PIT MLB 8 13 0 34 32 216.7 219 59 168 20 57% .302 9.1 2.5 0.8 7.0 1.28 3.82 10.0 1.0
1981 CLE MLB 11 7 0 20 20 159.3 145 40 107 9 54% .282 8.2 2.3 0.5 6.0 1.16 2.88 19.0 2.1
1982 CLE MLB 2 2 0 4 4 20.3 16 11 19 2 56% .246 7.1 4.9 0.9 8.4 1.33 4.87 2.0 0.2
1983 CLE MLB 7 10 0 24 24 156.3 160 44 123 8 60% .320 9.2 2.5 0.5 7.1 1.30 3.91 29.0 3.1
1984 CLE MLB 19 7 0 33 32 245.0 204 74 170 19 49% .252 7.5 2.7 0.7 6.2 1.13 2.87 20.4 2.2
1985 CLE MLB 9 11 0 23 23 179.7 163 49 129 14 48% .274 8.2 2.5 0.7 6.5 1.18 3.26 24.6 2.6
1985 MIN MLB 8 5 0 14 14 114.0 101 26 77 9 46% .266 8.0 2.1 0.7 6.1 1.11 3.00 12.7 1.3
1986 MIN MLB 17 14 0 36 36 271.7 262 58 215 50 48% .267 8.7 1.9 1.7 7.1 1.18 4.01 24.3 2.5
1987 MIN MLB 15 12 0 37 37 267.0 249 101 196 46 52% .264 8.4 3.4 1.6 6.6 1.31 4.01 19.8 2.0
1988 MIN MLB 10 17 0 33 33 207.3 240 51 145 21 42% .331 10.4 2.2 0.9 6.3 1.40 5.43 25.9 2.8
1989 CAL MLB 17 5 0 33 33 241.0 225 44 131 14 46% .272 8.4 1.6 0.5 4.9 1.12 2.73 24.8 2.7
1990 CAL MLB 8 7 0 23 23 134.0 163 25 69 15 44% .320 10.9 1.7 1.0 4.6 1.40 5.24 6.9 0.7
1992 CAL MLB 8 12 0 25 24 133.0 150 29 70 17 39% .298 10.2 2.0 1.2 4.7 1.35 4.74 5.0 0.6
1992 EDM AAA 2 0 0 2 2 11.7 16 3 7 1 0% .000 12.3 2.3 0.8 5.4 1.62 6.15 0.0 0.0
1992 MID AA 2 3 0 5 5 33.0 27 3 23 3 0% .000 7.4 0.8 0.8 6.3 0.91 2.73 0.0 0.0

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
1991-04-08 1991-10-07 60-DL 182 162 Right Shoulder Recovery From Surgery Rotator Cuff 1990-10-01 -
1990-08-11 1990-10-03 15-DL 53 48 Right Shoulder Surgery Rotator Cuff 1990-10-01 -
1988-07-30 1988-08-16 15-DL 17 17 Right Thumb Contusion - -
1984-05-18 1984-06-10 15-DL 23 21 Right Foot Fracture - -
1982-05-02 1982-10-04 15-DL 155 143 Right Elbow Surgery Flexor Pronator Mass - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
Richard Moss

Details
  • 1 year (1993). Signed by Minnesota as a free agent 1/93.
  • 1 year/$0.3M (1992). Signed by California as a free agent 1/92 (minor-league contract). $0.3M in majors. $0.9M in performance bonuses. Contract purchased by California 5/92.
  • 1 year/$2M (1991), plus 1992-93 options. Signed extension with California 4/90.
  • 1 year/$1.1M (1989), plus 1990 club option. Re-signed by California 2/89, settling grievances regarding 20-percent cut rule.
  • 2 years/$2.95M (1987-88). Signed extension with Minnesota 1986. 87:$1.95M, 88:$1M.
  • 1 year/$0.65M (1986). Re-signed by Minnesota.
  • Cleveland, 1981-85. Annual salaries $0.65M. Acquired by Minnesota in trade from Cleveland 8/85.
  • 1 year/$0.3M (1980). Re-signed by Pittsburgh. Acquired by Cleveland in trade from Pittsburgh 12/80.
  • 1 year/$0.5M (1979). Re-signed by Pittsburgh.
  • 1 year (1978). Signed by Pittsburgh.
  • 1 year/$0.14M (1977). Re-signed by Texas. Acquired by Pittsburgh in trade from Texas 12/77.
  • 1 year (1976). Re-signed by Minnesota. Acquired by Texas in trade from Minnesota 6/76.
  • 1 year/$65,000 (1975). Re-signed by Minnesota (lost arbitration, $85,000-$65,000).
  • 1 year/$55,000 (1974).
  • 1 year/$33,000 (1973).
  • Drafted by Minnesota 1969 (3-55).

BP Annual Player Comments

No BP Book Comments have been found for this player.

BP Articles

Bert Blyleven is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessThe View from the Loge Level: From the Home of the BravesDaron Sutton2014-07-18
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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 23Larry Granillo2013-04-24
Top Tools: Best PitchesBP Prospect Staff2013-04-01
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Punk Hits: Top Team Cookbooks, Part 1Ian Miller2013-01-29
This article requires BP Premium accessIn A Pickle: Average LoveJason Wojciechowski2013-01-25
Overthinking It: Has the Sabermetric Movement Been Bad for Jack Morris?Ben Lindbergh2013-01-10
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Wezen-Ball: The Anniversary of a StreakLarry Granillo2012-05-30
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BP Announcements: A New PlatformJay Jaffe2012-05-14
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Research Mailbag: ...Is This Thing On?Bradley Ankrom2012-03-28
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This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Preview: AL Central 2012 Preseason Preview, Part TwoBen Lindbergh2012-02-29
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The BP Broadside: Fernandomania and LinsanitySteven Goldman2012-02-16
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Heartburn Hardball: Jack Morris in MotionJonathan Bernhardt2012-01-13
The Lineup Card: 9 Memories of Frank ViolaBaseball Prospectus2011-12-14
Wezen-Ball: The Joy of Being Selected to the Hall of FameLarry Granillo2011-12-05
Prospectus Hit and Run: The Golden Era Ballot for the Hall of FameJay Jaffe2011-11-22
This article requires BP Premium accessDivide and Conquer, NL West: Thirty-Two Short Films About Aaron CookGeoff Young2011-09-20
This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Stuck in the Middle with YouJay Jaffe2011-07-25
Wezen-Ball: Who You Find in CooperstownLarry Granillo2011-07-24
BP Unfiltered: The Hallworthy Alomar and BlylevenJay Jaffe2011-07-23
Prospectus Hit and Run: Cooperstown's Backhanded ComplimentJay Jaffe2011-07-22
This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Calling CooperstownJohn Perrotto2011-07-22
The Lineup Card: The Top 13 Veterans Committee Selections That Weren't THAT BadBaseball Prospectus2011-07-20
BP Unfiltered: Clean Clemens?Chris St. John2011-07-14
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BP Unfiltered: (Belated) SABR Day 2011 Recap...With Video!Joe Hamrahi2011-03-14
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This article requires BP Premium accessOn the Beat: Contending and RebuildingJohn Perrotto2011-01-11
The Week in Quotes: January 3-9Alex Carnevale2011-01-10
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This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Blyleven in '11 and Other Tales from the BallotJay Jaffe2011-01-06
Another Look: Bert BlylevenBob Hertzel2011-01-06
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This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: The Right FieldersJay Jaffe2011-01-04
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This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: Having a BallJay Jaffe2008-02-22
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This article requires BP Premium accessProspectus Hit and Run: TandemoniumJay Jaffe2008-02-07
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This article requires BP Premium accessGrumpy Old Men: JAWS Tackles the Veterans Committee BallotJay Jaffe2007-02-26
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Prospectus Today: The ConundrumJoe Sheehan2007-01-09
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This article requires BP Premium accessCan Of Corn: Wishes for 2005Dayn Perry2004-12-30
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2004 Internet Hall of Fame: The Results Are InNeal Traven2004-01-05
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This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: June 10-15Christina Kahrl2003-06-19
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2013-03-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any concern about Felix's elbow? Should I be concerned about him in fantasy this year?
(Brian from Madison)
Hey Brian, I don't know that I have a specific concern about Felix other than his significant workload. The last three pitchers to log 1,600 innings by age 26 were Dwight Gooden, Fernando Valenzuela, and Frank Tanana. Those guys went on to have great careers, although not as great as people might have expected based on their earlier success. On the bright side, Bert Blyleven was the last before them (he had thrown 500 more innings than Felix by this point), and he ended up in the Hall of Fame. You never know with pitchers, but so far it seems like he's up to the task. (Geoff Young)
2013-01-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you see the way players are judged for entrance into the Hall of Fame evolving in the coming years and decades? Defense seems to just be getting to the point where we can judge a player's career. Will there be any cases that get pushed in due to statistical evidence supporting their exceptional defense? (And no, I'm not just trying to find a way for Jose Molina to make it in the HOF.)
(Steve from Milwaukee)
I think it's already changing; look at the way sabermetrics helped Bert Blyleven's climb. I don't think defensee alone is going to get anybody into Cooperstown unless they've got Ozzie Smith-level defensive numbers, which is tough luck for Omar Vizquel. (Jay Jaffe on the Hall of Fame)
2012-03-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)What's the best team of Berts of all time? Rules: You can have anyone with a "bert" in his name -- Albert Pujols, Robin Roberts, David Robertson, Wilbert Robinson....
(Robert from DC)
Without spending too much time on this one, I'd go with these as my obvious picks:

1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Roberto Alomar
SS: Bert Campaneris
OF:Roberto Clemente
SP: Bert Blyleven
CP: Roberto Hernandez (R.J. Anderson)
2012-03-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)Top "bert" players by position (according to WARP): SP - Bert Blyleven, RP - Roberto Hernandez, C - Mike Lieberthal, 1B - Albert Pujols, 2B - Roberto Alomar, SS - Bert Campaneris, 3B - Alberto Callaspo, LF - Albert Belle, CF - Roberto Kelly, RF - Roberto Clemente, DH - Butch Alberts.
(bradleyankrom from TPAFLA)
Bradley Ankrom, folks. He does it all. Transactions browsers, prospects number-crunching, and All-Bert team stat queries. (R.J. Anderson)
2011-06-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who's the most surprising player you can create a convincing HoF argument for? Triple-bonus points if his first name's "Tony" and his surname's "Fernandez".
(JT from Exhibition Stadium)
Rick Reuschel does unusually well on the JAWS scale. Prior to Bert Blyleven's election, Big Daddy rated as the second-best eligible pitcher despite relatively unassuming raw numbers (214-191, 3.37 ERA, 3 All-Star apperaances, no Cy Young votes. Stayed very useful late into his career.

That said, I can make better *arguments* for guys like Orel Hershiser, David Cone and Dwight Gooden, all of whom fell just short of 200 wins but had Cy Youngs and rings to their credit. I can make a better argument for Kevin Brown, but it's hindered by his being named in the Mitchell Report, not to mention his 2004 postseason shame. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-06-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Jay, Jack Morris isn't actually going to get elected to the Hall of Fame one of these years, is he? The Legend of the Guy Who Pitched to the Score is even more specious than the Legend of the Feared Hitter. The wave of great pitchers reaching eligibility in the next few years will be sufficient to hold off his charge, right?
(David from CT)
Morris has been above 40 percent on three of the past four BBWAA ballots, and if you look at where Bert Blyleven was after a decade on the ballot, Black Jack is only 3.7 percent behind at 44.0 percent. That said, Byleven got a real push from the grassroots internet supporters, of which I'm a card-carrying member, and gained another 25+ percent. Morris doesn't seem likely to get that anytime soon. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-02-16 16:00:00 (link to chat)Is Tom Brunansky the most underrated RF of the 1980s?
(Jake from St. Louis, MO)
There’s a good idea for a mini-series. The all-under-rated team of the 1980s, which is when I came of age in baseball fandom. Tom Brunansky vs. Jesse Barfield. Bert Blyleven vs. Dave Steib. The Astros rainbow warrior jerseys vs. the Brown and Gold Padres things from the early 80s. Bruno probably gets the start in right. (Russell A. Carleton)
2010-01-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)Oh boy, Goldstein on the subject of Bert Blyleven, again... ?
(Christina Kahrl from BP Volcano Hideout)
Oh c'mon! You know you want to see that! (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay, thanks for the chat. Tyler Kepner in yesterday's NYT handicapped the HOF choices, in which he made reference to stat-based criteria, but he remains confoundingly lukewarm on Tim Raines (in my opinion, the highest impact player on the ballot), yet high on Fred McGriff. While I agree with you that McGriff is not an overwhelming candidate (please don't tell Bill James, who loved him), he has a case, but so does Raines, of an order of magnitude several notches greater than McGriff. And Kepner continues the patronizing commentary on Bert Blyleven. You can tell where my vote would go, but I cannot understand the lukewarm response to Raines. When will these guys learn?
(BeplerP from New York, NY)
I don't know exactly how Kepner voted (or if he even has a ballot) but I think you're in danger of mistaking his opinion of those players' cases for his assessment of their chances in this year's voting, at least when it comes to Raines.

When will the voters learn? Some of them may never change their views on guys like Raines and Blyleven whom the statheads like us hold dear. The best we can hope for is that newer generations who come to the question with open minds can be swayed by the preponderance of evidence in their favor. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Surprised at the vote?
(Tim from Tampa)
Surprised but not terribly so. My conclusion to today's piece:

So with the business of the pitchers concluded, we add Bert Blyleven to the ranks of Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire, Tim Raines, and Alan Trammell on the JAWS 2010 ballot. With the voting results scheduled be announced later today (Wednesday), I wouldn't be at all surprised if that slate draws a blank while Andre Dawson gets in, though I do think Alomar has a decent shot (early returns suggest reasons for optimism) and Blyleven may be nearing the tipping point. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'd call this good news for Bert. I was worried he'd stagnate around 62%. do you have the % of the vote for Edgar, Raines and Barry? They don't have it on espn.com. Thanks.
(collins from greenville nc)
539 ballots, five blanks, Andre Dawson 420 (77.9%), Bert Blyleven 400 (74.2%), Roberto Alomar 397 (73.7%), Jack Morris 282 (52.3%), Barry Larkin 278 (51.6%), Lee Smith 255 (47.3%), Edgar Martinez 195 (36.2%), Tim Raines 164 (30.4%), Mark McGwire 128 (23.7%), Alan Trammell 121 (22.4%), Fred McGriff 116 (21.5%), Don Mattingly 87 (16.1%), Dave Parker 82 (15.2%), Dale Murphy 63 (11.7%), Harold Baines 33 (6.1%), Andres Galarraga 22 (4.1%), Robin Ventura 7 (1.3%), Ellis Burks 2 (0.4%), Eric Karros 2 (0.4%), Kevin Appier 1 (0.2%), Pat Hentgen 1 (0.2%), David Segui 1 (0.2%), Mike Jackson 0, Ray Lankford 0, Shane Reynolds 0, Todd Zeile 0.

Segui gets his vote. Baines remains on life support thanks to the persistence of a stubborn few. Karros receives more votes than he had All-Star appearances. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jay, since I'll be under a pile of work when the HoF announcement is made, I've tried to come up with a question that will cover every conceivable issue raised by the results: What does the (election/stagnant support/dropping off the ballot) of (Andre Dawson/Bert Blyleven/David Segui) say about the BBWAA's general attitude towards (impatient mustache aficionados/Dutch Old Masters/ill-considered bleach jobs)? Does the dramatic falling off of the ballot of (Karros/Raines/McGwire) mean baseball will change the composition of the Veterans Committee in order to better represent (the undead/people with a basic understanding of baseball/chicks who dig the long ball)?
(Nick Stone from New York, NY)
Too funny! I definitely think that the disappearance of Segui from the ballot is a shot across the bow at those ill-considered bleach jobs, and that the road to the Hall just got considerably longer for Mike Piazza, Alex Rodriguez, and Bret Boone. The disappearance of Karros from the ballot means that the VC will be changed to better accommodate the undead. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-12-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)A softball to get you started: Who would be on your Hall of Fame ballot this year?
(Bill from New Mexico)
Holdovers: Tim Raines, Bert Blyleven and Mark McGwire. For newbies, Barry Larkin and maybe Robbie Alomar, though I'm iffy enough on that one that I don't even remember if I'm for or against him at present. Just as a "I liked this guy, and I want to vote for him" kind of deal, and not because I think they should get in, I would toss a vote to Robin Ventura and Ellis Burks.

The good news is that Ray Lankford is finally on the ballot, so if he doesn't get 5% of the vote I can see if I can get him to write a foreword for "The Ray Lankford Wing of the Hall of Fame: Book Edition" without him feeling snubbed someday. (Marc Normandin)
2009-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think the HOF has been watered down due to people wanting to pay such close attention to career counting stats?
(JFerg from MD)
I think it can cut both ways. Those numbers are an excuse for the voters not to think. The numbers say yes or no, and you don't have to actually work out the player's actual quality for yourself. Hence a 300-winner is in, and Bert Blyleven isn't. (Steven Goldman)
2008-10-24 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Mussina the reigning great HOF test case?
(Tony from Brooklyn, NY)
Well, he's not on the ballot yet. Until he is, I'll put Tim Raines and Bert Blyleven ahead of him on the to-do list. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-01-22 19:00:00 (link to chat)Which team has gotten the most screwed over in the Hall of Fame vote? That is, which team has the most deserving guys who never made it? I think the list begins with the Cubs, who have two third basemen who are probably better than half of the guys currently enshrined at their position.
(Josh from San Jose, IL)
I don't know if this is a team-by-team issue. The two most deserving men who are not in the Hall who should be are, in my opinion, Ron Santo and Bert Blyleven. One is a Cub, the other was many things. They might land themselves a HoFer who doesn't belong, too, in the person of Andre Dawson. Let's not forget that of Tinkers to Evers to Chance, only Chance has a truly legit case for inclusion. That probably balances the Santo slighting on the eternal Cubs ledger. (Jim Baker)
2008-01-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)my prediction: Goose in. Rice misses by an extremely small margin. Much, much bleating commences over the voters who submitted blanks to protest roids users, thus depriving the "deserving" pre-roids slugger.
(TomH from Lexington Park MD)
The Goose is Loose! He gets 85.8 percent, and he's the only one who gets in on this ballot.

Rice falls just shy at 72.2 percent, setting him up for a 15th-year push.

Raines 24.3 percent. Oh is that ugly.

Player Total Votes Percentage Rich Gossage 466 85.8% Jim Rice 392 72.2% Andre Dawson 358 65.9% Bert Blyleven 336 61.9% Lee Smith 235 43.3% Jack Morris 233 42.9% Tommy John 158 29.1% Tim Raines 132 24.3% Mark McGwire 128 23.6% Alan Trammell 99 18.2% Dave Concepcion 88 16.2% Don Mattingly 86 15.8% Dave Parker 82 15.1% Dale Murphy 75 13.8% Harold Baines 28 5.2% Rod Beck 2 0.4% Travis Fryman 2 0.4% Robb Nen 2 0.4% Shawon Dunston 1 0.2% Chuck Finley 1 0.2% David Justice 1 0.2% Chuck Knoblauch 1 0.2% Todd Stottlemyre 1 0.2%
Jose Rijo 0 0% Brady Anderson 0 0% (Jay Jaffe)
2008-01-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Despite what Joe Sheehan says, I am opposed to McGwire getting in. (Go Rock Raines and Bert Blyleven, though!) Do you think a statistical argument could be made that McGwire should be excluded? Or is it purely a PED issue? And do you think he will eventually get in?
(SteveInPhilly from Philly)
As I pointed out this year, with the revised JAWS benchmarks, McGwire is now above on peak but below on career. That can be spun either way without sticking to anything but the numbers, and the direction of the spin is likely to be based on one's views about PEDs.

I think McGwire will get in, but only after at least 10 years on the ballot. He'll have to open up about his past, and the public and the media will have to calm down in order for that to happen. I do hope it does - it will be a great day when we can move past "cheater cheater pumpkineater" when it comes to the topic of steroids and the Hall of Fame. (Jay Jaffe)


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