Biographical

Portrait of Paul Wilson

Paul Wilson PReds

Reds Player Cards | Reds Team Audit | Reds Depth Chart

Career Summary
Years IP W L SV SO ERA WARP
7 941.7 40 58 0 619 4.86 4.7
Birth Date3-28-1973
Height6' 5"
Weight235 lbs
BatsR
ThrowsR
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP
1996 NYN 23 26 26 149.0 149.0 0.0 5 12 0 0 9 2 677 157 102 89 15 244 71 60 10 109 5.38 4.57 5.36 1.3 -0.2
2000 TBA 27 11 7 51.0 41.0 10.0 1 4 0 0 4 0 206 38 20 19 1 51 16 14 4 40 3.35 3.09 3.53 14.2 1.3
2001 TBA 28 37 24 151.3 131.7 19.7 8 9 0 1 8 1 674 165 94 82 21 255 52 50 13 119 4.88 4.62 4.99 16.3 1.6
2002 TBA 29 30 30 193.7 193.7 0.0 6 12 0 0 14 4 851 219 113 104 29 365 67 65 13 111 4.83 5.10 5.72 4.3 0.3
2003 CIN 30 28 28 166.7 166.7 0.0 8 10 0 0 17 2 730 190 97 86 24 308 50 45 7 93 4.64 4.76 5.08 11.1 0.9
2004 CIN 31 29 29 183.7 183.7 0.0 11 6 0 0 16 0 798 192 93 89 26 313 63 58 8 117 4.36 4.68 5.00 11.7 1.1
2005 CIN 32 9 9 46.3 46.3 0.0 1 5 0 0 4 0 224 68 41 40 10 120 17 16 4 30 7.77 5.86 6.53 -2.2 -0.3
Career170153941.7912.029.7405801729416010295605091261656336308596194.864.725.2256.64.7

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
1994 SLU A+ 8 8 37.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1995 BIN AA 16 16 120.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1995 NOR AAA 10 10 66.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996 NYN MLB 26 26 149.0 5.36 80 .273 .262 .324 .404 .251 .301 95 4.1 0.4 1.3 -0.2
1996 SLU A+ 2 2 8.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996 BIN AA 1 1 5.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1997 SLU A+ 1 1 7.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .263 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1998 SLU A+ 5 5 18.3 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1998 NOR AAA 7 7 38.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2000 TBA MLB 11 7 51.0 3.53 130 .197 .282 .351 .447 .268 .255 94 14.2 1.3 14.2 1.3
2000 SLU A+ 5 5 25.7 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2000 NOR AAA 15 13 83.0 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001 TBA MLB 37 24 151.3 4.99 94 .280 .262 .327 .420 .260 .307 96 16.3 1.6 16.3 1.6
2002 TBA MLB 30 30 193.7 5.72 81 .285 .265 .332 .433 .267 .301 99 2.5 0.3 4.3 0.3
2003 CIN MLB 28 28 166.7 5.08 92 .273 .262 .328 .419 .259 .299 101 10.9 1.1 11.1 0.9
2004 CIN MLB 29 29 183.7 5.00 91 .266 .262 .326 .425 .261 .284 97 12.1 1.2 11.7 1.1
2005 CIN MLB 9 9 46.3 6.53 64 .324 .254 .318 .400 .255 .356 105 -2.3 -0.2 -2.2 -0.3
2006 DYT A 1 1 7.2 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .333 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006 SAR A+ 1 1 6.2 4.56 110 .285 .260 .334 .367 .251 .346 107 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1
2006 LOU AAA 2 2 11.2 7.84 14 .349 .261 .334 .407 .259 .256 97 -3.3 -0.3 -3.3 -0.3

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
1994 SLU A+ 0 5 0 8 8 37.3 32 17 37 3 0% .000 7.7 4.1 0.7 8.9 1.31 5.07 0.0 0.0
1995 BIN AA 6 3 0 16 16 120.3 89 24 127 5 0% .000 6.7 1.8 0.4 9.5 0.94 2.17 0.0 0.0
1995 NOR AAA 5 3 0 10 10 66.3 59 20 67 3 0% .000 8.0 2.7 0.4 9.1 1.19 2.85 0.0 0.0
1996 NYN MLB 5 12 0 26 26 149.0 157 71 109 15 52% .301 9.5 4.3 0.9 6.6 1.53 5.38 1.3 -0.2
1996 BIN AA 0 1 0 1 1 5.0 6 5 5 0 0% .000 10.8 9.0 0.0 9.0 2.20 7.20 0.0 0.0
1996 SLU A+ 0 1 0 2 2 8.0 6 4 5 0 0% .000 6.8 4.5 0.0 5.6 1.25 3.38 0.0 0.0
1997 SLU A+ 0 0 0 1 1 7.0 6 0 6 1 0% .263 7.7 0.0 1.3 7.7 0.86 2.57 0.0 0.0
1998 SLU A+ 0 1 0 5 5 18.3 23 4 16 2 0% .000 11.3 2.0 1.0 7.9 1.48 6.39 0.0 0.0
1998 NOR AAA 4 1 0 7 7 38.7 42 9 30 2 0% .000 9.8 2.1 0.5 7.0 1.32 4.42 0.0 0.0
2000 TBA MLB 1 4 0 11 7 51.0 38 16 40 1 51% .255 6.7 2.8 0.2 7.1 1.06 3.35 14.2 1.3
2000 NOR AAA 5 5 0 15 13 83.0 85 25 56 7 0% .000 9.2 2.7 0.8 6.1 1.33 4.23 0.0 0.0
2000 SLU A+ 2 0 0 5 5 25.7 22 4 19 0 0% .000 7.7 1.4 0.0 6.7 1.01 1.40 0.0 0.0
2001 TBA MLB 8 9 0 37 24 151.3 165 52 119 21 48% .307 9.8 3.1 1.2 7.1 1.43 4.88 16.3 1.6
2002 TBA MLB 6 12 0 30 30 193.7 219 67 111 29 50% .301 10.2 3.1 1.3 5.2 1.48 4.83 4.3 0.3
2003 CIN MLB 8 10 0 28 28 166.7 190 50 93 24 45% .299 10.3 2.7 1.3 5.0 1.44 4.64 11.1 0.9
2004 CIN MLB 11 6 0 29 29 183.7 192 63 117 26 45% .284 9.4 3.1 1.3 5.7 1.39 4.36 11.7 1.1
2005 CIN MLB 1 5 0 9 9 46.3 68 17 30 10 42% .356 13.2 3.3 1.9 5.8 1.83 7.77 -2.2 -0.3
2006 DYT A 0 1 0 1 1 7.2 10 0 4 1 0% .333 12.5 0.0 1.2 5.0 1.39 5.00 0.0 0.0
2006 LOU AAA 0 2 0 2 2 11.2 15 1 3 4 30% .256 12.1 0.8 3.2 2.4 1.43 4.82 -3.3 -0.3
2006 SAR A+ 1 0 0 1 1 6.2 9 1 1 0 38% .346 13.1 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.61 2.90 0.5 0.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2006-04-03 2006-10-02 60-DL 182 162 Right Shoulder Recovery From Surgery Frayed Labrum and Torn Rotator Cuff 2005-06-17
2005-05-17 2005-10-03 60-DL 139 125 Right Shoulder Surgery Frayed Labrum and Torn Rotator Cuff 2005-06-17
2004-08-14 2004-09-01 15-DL 18 16 Low Back Soreness -
1999-04-01 1999-10-04 60-DL 186 162 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 1999-04-01 -
1998-03-31 1998-08-04 60-DL 126 109 Right Shoulder Recovery From Surgery Labrum 1996-11-12 -
1997-04-01 1997-09-29 60-DL 181 162 Right Shoulder Recovery From Surgery Labrum 1996-11-12 -
1996-11-12 1996-11-12 Off 0 0 Right Shoulder Surgery Labrum 1996-11-12 -
1996-06-09 1996-07-15 15-DL 36 32 Right Shoulder Inflammation Tendonitis - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2006 CIN $3,750,000
2005 CIN $3,600,000
2004 CIN $3,500,000
2003 CIN $500,000
2002 TBA $1,200,000
2001 TBA $350,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
6 yrPrevious$12,900,000
6 yrTotal$12,900,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
8 y 8 dHendricks Sports Mgmt

Details
  • released 3/07 re-signed as a free agent 1/07 (minor-league contract)
  • re-signed as a free agent 11/04, 2 year/$8.2M (05-06), 05:$3.6M, 06:$3.75M, 07:$5.15M club option (pending escalator) $0.85M buyout
  • signed as a free agent from TB 1/03, 2 year/$4M (03-04)
  • non-tendered 12/02 avoided arbitration 1/02 1 year/$1M+bonuses (02),1 year/$0.35M (01)

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
Weighted Mean?????0.0????.0000.000.00?0.00.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
out of baseballout of baseballout of baseballout of baseballout of baseballout of baseballout of baseball

Comparable Players (Similarity Index )

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2007 Paul Wilson couldn`t come back from his torn labrum in 2006, but will try again for somebody in 2007. Assuming he can pitch at all, the above is PECOTA`s best guess as to what to expect.
2006 When healthy, Wilson has dead-average stuff, mixing two-seamers, four-seamers, curves, and change-ups effectively, and pitching to spots. The 2004 season was Wilson`s sixth in The Show, and it was his first with a winning record, as well as his first allowing fewer hits than IP, though his Adjusted ERA was still a bit below league average. During his career year, he made his fourth trip to the DL as well, albeit a brief stint for a sore lower back. The rose-colored glasses were donned, and the club signed the popular and competitive hurler to a two-year, $8 million deal despite reports that his shoulder was not 100%. In 2005, he missed two thirds of the season with a rotator cuff and frayed labrum. Further deponent sayeth not.
2005 Wilson yielded too many hits and too many homers, but still kicked in a couple wins above replacement level, thanks largely to his durability; his 2.34 May ERA smoothed over an otherwise erratic year. He's a good story considering how far he's come from one-time phenom to Dallas Green-induced burnout. Though he's unlikely to get significantly better at this stage of his career, the two-year, $8.2 million deal given to Wilson now looks like a decent deal, compared to the insane money doled out to Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright, and the Reds' own Eric Milton.
2003 Tampa Bay made attempts to trade Wilson at the deadline, but they didnít see an offer they liked. He may have been disheartened by the non-trade, because he ended the year on a note as ugly as the one he started off on in 2001. Wilson is a talented pitcher with mysterious streaks of god-awful that you want to put on the D-Rays. Iíd like to see what Don Gullett or Joe Kerrigan would do with him, and happily enough, he signed with the Reds.
2002 Wilson pitched horribly over the first two months, suffering from bouts of wildness: falling behind, walking guys, hitting guys. It was so disturbing it was hard to believe he wasn't pitching hurt. The D-Rays sent him to the bullpen in June, used him once in two weeks, and nursed him back by pitching him in the late innings of lost causes. It worked: he turned it around, and they returned him to the rotation in late July. Wilson made 12 more starts and pitched extremely well in all but three of them, going 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA and a 64-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's obviously something to get excited about; the caveat is that he had done pretty much the same thing over the last two months of 2000. Wilson is high-risk/high-upside.
2001 He finally had his elbow rebuilt in the spring of 1999, sat out a year, and you see the results above. Paul Wilson is going to be a major national story by midseason, when Joe Torre names him to the AL All-Star team. It wasn't just his good performance after being traded at the July deadline. It was his effectiveness at every point during his comeback last year. It was the way in which he walked over the AL in August and September, allowing only one home run in 51 innings.

The best part is that now he owns a rebuilt elbow and has basically no mileage on his shoulder. He's entering what should be his prime without any concern about his workload history.
1999 Could be good again, but will he ever be healthy? He was shut down once in March, again in April for a month... you get the idea. The Norfolk time was encouraging, but he's still trying to get his old mechanics back, and that could take another year even if he stays healthy.
1998 The best of the young guns, and probably the most seriously injured. Heís still possibly capable of pitching effectively this year, but more likely itíll be August before he gets things clicking. We wonít know how much of his nasty stuff he has back until late in the year, but heís a very sharp pitcher, and he was as good a pitching prospect as youíre likely to see. Donít count him out.
1997 The crown jewel of young Met pitchers, Wilson was the first player picked in the 1994 draft. He took some lumps in Florida that year, but was dominating the following year. Everything he did was so impressive there was no way he could miss, but he did. He had control problems early in the year, then started having some tendinitis in his shoulder. He came back after only two weeks on the DL to pitch the rest of the season, after which he was diagnosed with a torn labrum and needed surgery.
1996  Clearly the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. The only reason he didn't get a September call-up was to save space on the Mets' 40-man roster, a shrewd move which you don't see teams doing very often. Frankly, he may be the most anticipated pitcher since at least Tom Gordon in 1988, and possibly since Dwight Gooden in 1983. Could start on Opening Day for half a dozen teams.

BP Articles

Paul Wilson is referenced in the following articles.

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2008-06-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Kind of a wierd question, can you say anything about how former prospects will often fade, then resurface? The extreme example is Hamilton, but Paul Wilson had a couple good years after faltering, Brandon Phillips, etc....
(David from Sonoma State University, CA)
It certianly happens, and it follows the scouting cliche of "tools play" (Kevin Goldstein)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2009-06-09 14:30:002009 Draft CoverageOne of the great things about being at BP is having great help just a few keyboard clicks away. I asked Rany, who did his fantastic series on draft history, if he remembers a draft that was better 11-20 than 1-10. Rany jumped into action for me, and found just one in 15 years: 2002.

Top Ten: B.J. Upton, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis.
11-20: Hermida, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, James Loney, Denard Span.

The best example is 1994, where Garciaparra, Konerko and Varitek went 12-14. Needless to say, the top 10 that boasted Paul Wilson, Ben Grieve, Todd Walker and Jaret Wright wasn't as good. (Bryan Smith)