Biographical

Portrait of Phillip Ervin

Phillip Ervin RFReds

Reds Player Cards | Reds Team Audit | Reds Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 21)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
250 .212 6 25 26 5 .224 -0.5
Birth Date7-15-1992
Height5' 10"
Weight205 lbs
Age22 years, 3 months, 10 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2010
2011
2012
2013
-0.52014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2013 DYT A 12 51 .354 .251 .321 .372 .255 .438 106 5.1 1.4 -0.2 -0.4 -1.4 5.4 0.5 5.4 0.5
2013 BIL Rk 34 149 .363 .272 .346 .413 .276 .351 93 17.3 4.5 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 20.7 2.0 20.7 2.0
2014 DYT A 132 562 .263 .256 .319 .378 .262 .284 93 1.8 16.0 -2 -4.4 3.1 15.3 1.1 15.3 1.1

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2013 BIL Rk 149 27 42 9 1 8 29 17 24 12 0 .326 .416 .597 .271 .363 20.7 -0.3 2.0
2013 DYT A 51 7 15 2 0 1 6 8 10 2 1 .349 .451 .465 .116 .354 5.4 -0.4 0.5
2014 DYT A 562 68 118 34 7 7 68 46 110 30 5 .237 .305 .376 .139 .263 15.3 -4.4 1.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 535 68 128 22 1 17 63 46 136 16 3 .268 .333 .426 .277 21.1 RF -5, CF 0 1.7
80o 506 61 113 19 1 15 56 41 133 14 2 .249 .311 .394 .259 10.8 RF -4, CF 0 0.7
70o 485 56 104 18 1 14 51 37 131 13 2 .235 .295 .372 .245 4.1 RF -4, CF 0 -0.1
60o 467 51 94 16 1 12 47 34 129 12 2 .223 .281 .353 .234 -1.2 RF -4, CF 0 -0.6
50o 450 48 87 15 1 11 44 31 126 11 2 .212 .268 .335 .223 -5.8 RF -4, CF 0 -1.1
40o 433 44 81 14 1 11 40 29 124 10 2 .201 .255 .318 .212 -10.1 RF -4, CF 0 -1.5
30o 415 40 72 12 0 10 37 26 121 9 1 .189 .242 .299 .201 -14.3 RF -4, CF 0 -2.0
20o 394 36 63 11 0 8 33 23 117 8 1 .176 .225 .278 .188 -18.7 RF -3, CF 0 -2.4
10o 365 31 53 9 0 7 28 19 112 7 1 .158 .203 .248 .169 -23.9 RF -3, CF 0 -3.0
Weighted Mean4605092161124633128112.219.276.346.230-3.0RF -4, CF 0-0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
20152225029508172721676.221.291.360.2400.02.70.6-0.914.9-11.9-2.4
20162325028499082819696.218.281.361.237-0.20.80.5-0.914.9-13.7-2.4
2017245135910218116574114113.221.288.366.241-0.22.71.1-2.114.9-11.3-4.9
2018256227312722120714916716.226.292.374.244-0.24.31.4-2.714.9-9.3-5.9
2019266117212421119695215816.227.297.373.247-0.05.51.4-2.814.9-8.0-5.8
2020276297613323121745414816.235.305.389.2540.49.81.3-3.114.9-3.3-6.0
2021286298113924023795712916.248.321.415.2681.317.50.8-3.314.95.0-6.0
2022296217613223120735413914.238.307.390.2560.49.50.6-3.414.9-2.7-5.9
2023306188114927021785512015.270.339.434.2801.923.40.2-3.614.911.8-5.9

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
0.24.23.512.49.72.242.5

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 82)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 94 Drew Vettleson 2013 .000 DNP
2 92 Reid Fronk 2008 .000 DNP
3 91 Carlos Gonzalez 2007 .000 DNP
4 91 Angel Morales 2011 .000 DNP
5 91 Rashun Dixon 2012 .000 DNP
6 90 Rymer Liriano 2012 .000 DNP
7 88 Moises Sierra 2010 .000 DNP
8 87 Luis Sumoza 2010 .000 DNP
9 87 Cesar Puello 2012 .000 DNP
10 86 Matthew Sulentic 2009 .000 DNP
11 85 Cirilo Cumberbatch 2008 .000 DNP
12 85 Jon Edwards 2009 .000 DNP
13 85 Ryan Kalish 2009 .000 DNP
14 85 Angel Castillo 2010 .000 DNP
15 85 Jeremy Barfield 2010 .000 DNP
16 84 Caleb Gindl 2010 .000 DNP
17 84 Robbie Grossman 2011 .000 DNP
18 84 Austin Jackson 2008 .000 DNP
19 84 Gilbert Gomez 2013 .000 DNP
20 84 Mitch Dening 2010 .000 DNP
21 84 Michael Crouse 2012 .000 DNP
22 83 Billy Rowell 2010 .000 DNP
23 83 Estarlin Martinez 2013 .000 DNP
24 83 Andrew McCutchen 2008 .000 DNP
25 83 Slade Heathcott 2012 .000 DNP
26 83 Daniel Fields 2012 .000 DNP
27 83 Michael Saunders 2008 .000 DNP
28 83 Jose Tabata 2010 .274
29 83 Johermyn Chavez 2010 .000 DNP
30 82 Kyle Waldrop 2013 .000 DNP
31 82 Jamie Romak 2007 .000 DNP
32 82 Lorenzo Cain 2007 .000 DNP
33 82 Lance Ray 2011 .000 DNP
34 82 Marcus Knecht 2011 .000 DNP
35 82 Brian Pointer 2013 .000 DNP
36 82 Marcell Ozuna 2012 .000 DNP
37 82 Chris Dennis 2010 .000 DNP
38 82 Frederick Parejo 2012 .000 DNP
39 82 Brett Jackson 2010 .000 DNP
40 81 Destin Hood 2011 .000 DNP
41 81 Anthony Gose 2012 .225
42 81 Randal Grichuk 2013 .000 DNP
43 81 Max Stassi 2012 .000 DNP
44 81 Julio Morban 2013 .000 DNP
45 81 Jonathan Rodriguez 2011 .000 DNP
46 81 Jake Marisnick 2012 .000 DNP
47 81 Brandon Jacobs 2012 .000 DNP
48 81 Gregory Polanco 2013 .000 DNP
49 81 Dexter Fowler 2007 .000 DNP
50 81 Jonathan Galvez 2012 .000 DNP
51 81 Janelfry Zorrilla 2012 .000 DNP
52 80 Jordan Schafer 2008 .000 DNP
53 80 Everett Williams 2012 .000 DNP
54 80 Mike Carp 2007 .000 DNP
55 80 Kaleb Cowart 2013 .000 DNP
56 80 Jonathan Garcia 2013 .000 DNP
57 80 Justin Jacobs 2010 .000 DNP
58 80 Eugenio Suarez 2013 .000 DNP
59 80 Mitch Einertson 2007 .000 DNP
60 80 William Beckwith 2012 .000 DNP
61 80 Henry Ramos 2013 .000 DNP
62 80 Starling Marte 2010 .000 DNP
63 80 Sean Coyle 2013 .000 DNP
64 80 Ramon Flores 2013 .000 DNP
65 80 Jacob Skole 2013 .000 DNP
66 80 Josh Reddick 2008 .000 DNP
67 80 Alex Liddi 2010 .000 DNP
68 80 Andrew Lambo 2010 .000 DNP
69 79 Aaron Hicks 2011 .000 DNP
70 79 Oswaldo Arcia 2012 .000 DNP
71 79 Domonic Brown 2009 .000 DNP
72 79 Joe Benson 2009 .000 DNP
73 79 Edinson Rincon 2012 .000 DNP
74 79 Joc Pederson 2013 .000 DNP
75 79 Abraham Almonte 2010 .000 DNP
76 79 Brandon Short 2010 .000 DNP
77 79 Tyler Kolodny 2009 .000 DNP
78 79 Peter Bourjos 2008 .000 DNP
79 79 Thomas Neal 2009 .000 DNP
80 79 Billy Butler 2007 .268
81 79 J.P. Ramirez 2011 .000 DNP
82 79 Michael Burgess 2010 .000 DNP
83 79 Desmond Jennings 2008 .000 DNP
84 79 Felix Marte 2012 .000 DNP
85 79 John Tolisano 2010 .000 DNP
86 79 Nick Franklin 2012 .000 DNP
87 79 Jeff Malm 2012 .000 DNP
88 79 Adam Jones 2007 .280
89 79 Thomas Hickman 2009 .000 DNP
90 79 Wil Myers 2012 .000 DNP
91 78 Brett Lawrie 2011 .327
92 78 Bobby Borchering 2012 .000 DNP
93 78 Yamaico Navarro 2009 .000 DNP
94 78 Christian Villanueva 2012 .000 DNP
95 78 Tim Beckham 2011 .000 DNP
96 78 Edward Salcedo 2013 .000 DNP
97 78 Abner Abreu 2011 .000 DNP
98 78 Edgardo Baez 2007 .000 DNP
99 78 Xavier Avery 2011 .000 DNP
100 78 Roman Pena 2008 .000 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).

BP Articles

Phillip Ervin is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessPECOTA Takes on Prospects: Corner OutfieldersAndrew Koo2014-06-18
The 2013 Redraft: How Much Has Changed?Ron Shah2014-06-10
The 2013 Redraft: How Much Has Changed?Baseball Prospectus2014-06-10
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Thursday, May 22Jeff Moore2014-05-23
PECOTA Takes on Prospects: Introduction: I Now Pronounce You Scout and StatAndrew Koo2014-04-15
This article requires BP Premium accessBP Top 101 Prospects: Surprising AssignmentsRon Shah2014-04-04
BP Top 101 Prospects: Opening Day AssignmentsRon Shah2014-04-03
25-and-Under Talent Rankings: Ranking All 30 Teams from Top to BottomBP Prospect Staff2014-03-03
25-and-Under Talent Rankings: Ranking All 30 Teams from Top to BottomJason Parks2014-03-03
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: 2014 Organizational RankingsJason Parks2014-02-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: OutfieldersIan Lefkowitz2014-02-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: OutfieldersJared Weiss2014-02-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: OutfieldersBen Murphy2014-02-21
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Outfield ProspectsBen Carsley2014-02-19
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2014-02-03
BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft: Rounds 5-7Baseball Prospectus2014-01-31
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Top 101 ProspectsBP Prospect Staff2014-01-27
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Top 101 ProspectsJason Parks2014-01-27
The Top 101 Prospects of 2014: Sliced and DicedMauricio Rubio2014-01-27
The Top 101 Prospects of 2014: Sliced and DicedRob McQuown2014-01-27
The Week in Quotes: December 26-January 1Nick Bacarella2014-01-02
The Week in Quotes: December 26-January 1Chris Mosch2014-01-02
The Week in Quotes: December 26-January 1Morris Greenberg2014-01-02
The Week in Quotes: December 26-January 1Nick Wheatley-Schaller2014-01-02


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-01-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm surprised to see Phillip Ervin ranked almost 30 spots higher than Austin Meadows considering their relatively similar profiles. I always thought Meadows would rate higher, with louder tools and more projection. Any insight into what caused the separation?
(tonynelson19 from MN)
I like Ervin more; better chance to stay up the middle; plus runner with plus arm; better bat speed. Just needs to stay healthy. (Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects)
2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)If you had to rank these OF for dynasty purposes: Phillip Ervin, Nick Williams, Raimel Tapia, Domingo Santana and Jorge Bonifacio.
(Connor from Dallas )
Wow, you hit on a lot of semi-under the radar guys I love here. Tapia, Williams, Santana, Bonifacio, Ervin. But I think it's fairly close all the way around except for Ervin. (Ben Carsley)
2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)I know the BP 101 isn't a fantasy list, but how does Phillip Ervin rank 63 on the BP 101 but doesn't crack the top 50 on the 2013 Draftees list?
(tonynelson19 from MN)
Parks made the BP 101, Sayre made the top 50 Draftees list. And the difference between real life and fantasy can have a HUGE impact on valuations. (Ben Carsley)
2013-11-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think the power Phillip Ervin showed during his first pro season stint is for real or an aberration? Thanks for the chat!
(Tim from Toronto)
Another answer from Mark Anderson, because going to Scout School didn't make me know much about Phillip Ervin: "I certainly don't buy the power surge in the rookie-level Pioneer League, but there's a little more juice in the bat than I think he was given credit for entering the draft. I think there's a chance he ends up with average power that manifests in a pile of doubles and 15 home runs a year, which makes him an extremely useful player if he can stick in the middle of the outfield." (Ben Lindbergh)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.