Biographical

Portrait of Elier Hernandez

Elier Hernandez RFRoyals

Royals Player Cards | Royals Team Audit | Royals Depth Chart

2016 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 21)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
250 .211 3 18 22 1 .194 -1.1
Birth Date11-21-1994
Height6' 3"
Weight197 lbs
Age21 years, 10 months, 4 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2012
2013
2014
2015
-1.12016
+proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2012 IDA Rk 60 267 .217 .277 .349 .421 .000 .283 112 -13.3 8.3 -3.1 0.8 2.0 -6.1 -0.5 -6.1 -0.5
2013 IDA Rk 66 319 .272 .279 .348 .428 .000 .368 108 4.4 9.7 -3.7 -1.9 -1.5 8.9 0.7 8.9 0.7
2014 LEX A 111 446 .246 .261 .325 .383 .000 .324 106 -6.6 12.7 -4 -3.4 -2.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4
2015 LEX A 74 314 .283 .250 .319 .362 .000 .369 103 7.3 8.6 -3 -11.2 -2.3 10.7 -0.1 10.7 -0.1
2015 WIL A+ 50 196 .233 .254 .322 .362 .000 .299 98 -5.4 5.3 -2.1 6.9 -1.2 -3.4 0.4 -3.4 0.4
2016 WIL A+ 134 546 .220 .256 .324 .380 .258 .290 99 -23.7 15.6 -5.3 2.3 -3.0 -16.4 -1.4 -16.4 -1.4

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2012 IDA Rk 267 30 52 10 4 0 34 14 66 2 0 .208 .256 .280 .072 .217 -6.1 0.8 -0.5
2013 IDA Rk 319 44 87 15 8 3 44 18 62 9 2 .301 .350 .439 .138 .272 8.9 -1.9 0.7
2014 LEX A 446 54 111 19 4 9 34 16 99 5 5 .264 .296 .393 .129 .246 -0.5 -3.4 -0.4
2015 WIL A+ 196 15 41 7 2 1 12 10 47 4 2 .232 .281 .311 .079 .233 -3.4 6.9 0.4
2015 LEX A 314 37 84 19 2 5 42 14 73 6 5 .290 .331 .421 .131 .283 10.7 -11.2 -0.1
2016 WIL A+ 546 51 113 28 4 2 43 30 120 8 5 .226 .281 .310 .084 .220 -16.4 2.3 -1.4

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT CSAA_CHANCES CSAA_RT

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-05-23 2014-06-10 Minors 18 0 - Not Disclosed - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2016 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/15/2015 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 315 29 77 15 3 5 31 8 87 2 1 .258 .282 .380 .237 -2.2 RF 1, CF 0 -0.1
80o 293 25 67 13 2 5 27 7 83 1 1 .242 .265 .356 .222 -6.2 RF 1, CF 0 -0.6
70o 277 23 61 12 2 4 25 6 80 1 1 .231 .252 .339 .212 -8.6 RF 1, CF 0 -0.8
60o 263 21 56 11 2 4 23 6 77 1 1 .221 .242 .324 .203 -10.4 RF 1, CF 0 -1.0
50o 250 19 50 10 2 3 21 5 74 1 1 .211 .232 .310 .195 -11.9 RF 1, CF 0 -1.2
40o 237 17 46 9 2 3 19 5 71 1 1 .202 .222 .296 .187 -13.2 RF 1, CF 0 -1.4
30o 223 16 41 8 1 3 17 4 68 1 1 .192 .212 .282 .178 -14.4 RF 1, CF 0 -1.5
20o 207 14 35 7 1 2 16 4 64 1 1 .181 .199 .265 .168 -15.4 RF 1, CF 0 -1.6
10o 185 11 30 6 1 2 13 3 58 1 0 .165 .182 .241 .153 -16.3 RF 1, CF 0 -1.7
Weighted Mean256205310242257511.216.237.317.199-11.2RF 1, CF 0-1.1

2016 Rest-of-Season Forecast

Last Update: 9/25/2016 11:52 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 515 45 120 25 4 7 47 15 139 3 2 .249 .277 .361 .233 -2.0 RF 1, CF 0 -0.1
80o 493 40 109 23 4 6 43 13 136 2 2 .233 .260 .338 .219 -8.8 RF 1, CF 0 -0.9
70o 477 37 100 21 3 6 40 12 134 2 2 .222 .248 .321 .209 -13.3 RF 1, CF 0 -1.4
60o 463 35 93 20 3 5 38 11 132 2 2 .212 .238 .307 .200 -16.9 RF 1, CF 0 -1.8
50o 450 33 87 18 3 5 35 11 130 2 1 .203 .228 .294 .192 -20.0 RF 1, CF 0 -2.1
40o 437 31 81 17 3 5 33 10 128 2 1 .194 .218 .281 .184 -22.9 RF 1, CF 0 -2.4
30o 423 28 75 16 3 4 31 9 125 2 1 .184 .208 .267 .175 -25.8 RF 1, CF 0 -2.7
20o 407 26 67 14 2 4 29 8 122 2 1 .173 .196 .251 .165 -28.9 RF 1, CF 0 -3.1
10o 385 23 58 12 2 3 26 7 118 1 1 .158 .179 .228 .150 -32.7 RF 1, CF 0 -3.5
Weighted Mean45634901935361113122.207.233.300.196-18.5RF 1, CF 0-1.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
1% 1% 0% 2% 2%

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2016 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
201722429378917363781272.218.240.319.201-1.8-18.0-0.4-3.310.6-24.91.4
2018234393891193739101282.217.241.325.203-1.8-17.6-0.4-3.510.9-24.61.5
2019244323990183740111262.220.246.333.207-1.5-15.7-0.4-3.510.7-22.41.5
2020254213889183739101232.223.247.337.209-1.4-14.5-0.4-3.610.4-21.01.4
2021263913682163736101132.221.247.335.208-1.4-13.8-0.4-3.49.7-19.71.3
2022273943683163736101132.221.249.335.209-1.4-13.9-0.4-3.59.7-19.71.3
2023283803579163635101091.220.248.333.208-1.4-13.8-0.5-3.59.4-19.21.3
2024293863681163736111111.222.250.336.210-1.3-13.5-0.5-3.79.5-18.91.3
2025303863681163736111111.221.250.336.210-1.3-13.7-0.5-3.89.5-18.91.3

Long-Term Forecast Based on RoS PECOTA (Beyond the 2016 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
20172225021501023206721.208.235.302.194-2.5-23.0-0.3-0.613.8-36.00.2
20182328825571224248821.208.237.311.197-2.6-23.8-0.3-0.715.3-38.10.2
2019244273887183738131202.215.247.325.206-2.0-19.0-0.4-1.215.3-32.70.4
2020254524194204742121332.221.249.338.211-1.7-16.1-0.3-1.415.3-29.70.4
2021264664493193944161302.214.249.336.213-1.6-15.1-0.5-1.615.3-28.30.4
2022274323986193637171172.212.252.314.208-2.0-18.6-0.6-1.615.3-31.70.4
202328321255415232312921.184.229.274.194-2.3-21.0-0.5-1.311.9-31.10.3

Upside By Year

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PEAK 5
00.6out of baseball0.32.40.23.4

Previous Year Preseason Upside By Year

Yr Proj 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PEAK 5
20150.7out of baseballout of baseball1.89.83.423.8

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 89)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 95 Destin Hood 2011 .000 DNP
2 95 Henry Ramos 2013 .000 DNP
3 94 Abner Abreu 2011 .000 DNP
4 93 Hayden Parrott 2009 .000 DNP
5 93 Billy Rowell 2010 .000 DNP
6 93 Jason Smit 2011 .000 DNP
7 92 Nelson Perez 2009 .000 DNP
8 92 Yasiel Balaguert 2014 .000 DNP
9 92 Luis Sumoza 2010 .000 DNP
10 92 Samir Rijo 2011 .000 DNP
11 92 Denis Phipps 2007 .000 DNP
12 92 Gabriel Guerrero 2015 .000 DNP
13 92 Salvador Sanchez 2007 .000 DNP
14 92 Isaias Asencio 2009 .000 DNP
15 92 Glenn Beltran 2013 .000 DNP
16 91 Shannon Wilkerson 2010 .000 DNP
17 91 Socrates Brito 2014 .000 DNP
18 91 Kyle Waldrop 2013 .000 DNP
19 91 Isaac Galloway 2011 .000 DNP
20 91 Ericson Leonora 2014 .000 DNP
21 91 Victor Castro 2013 .000 DNP
22 91 Matthew Sulentic 2009 .000 DNP
23 91 Shaun Cumberland 2006 .000 DNP
24 91 Wilton Martinez 2015 .000 DNP
25 91 Edgardo Baez 2007 .000 DNP
26 91 Alexis Espinoza 2010 .000 DNP
27 91 Eric Fry 2009 .000 DNP
28 90 Patrick Smith 2013 .000 DNP
29 90 Julian Yan 2013 .000 DNP
30 90 Avisail Garcia 2012 .241
31 90 Francisco Peguero 2009 .000 DNP
32 90 Moises Sierra 2010 .000 DNP
33 90 Zach Larson 2015 .000 DNP
34 89 Marcus Knecht 2011 .000 DNP
35 89 Shilo McCall 2015 .000 DNP
36 89 Jeremy Barfield 2010 .000 DNP
37 89 Kelvin De Leon 2012 .000 DNP
38 89 Kelly Dugan 2012 .000 DNP
39 89 Jordan Parraz 2006 .000 DNP
40 89 Mitch Dening 2010 .000 DNP
41 88 Henry Zabala 2011 .000 DNP
42 88 Johermyn Chavez 2010 .000 DNP
43 88 Scott Schebler 2012 .000 DNP
44 88 Joey Curletta 2015 .000 DNP
45 88 D'Arby Myers 2010 .000 DNP
46 88 Mike Meyers 2015 .000 DNP
47 88 Yair Lopez 2013 .000 DNP
48 88 Kevin Rucker 2011 .000 DNP
49 88 Ranyelmy Mendoza 2015 .000 DNP
50 88 Erik Komatsu 2009 .000 DNP
51 88 Rymer Liriano 2012 .000 DNP
52 88 Quincy Latimore 2010 .000 DNP
53 88 Geulin Beltre 2012 .000 DNP
54 88 Dan Brewer 2009 .000 DNP
55 88 Javier Rodriguez 2011 .000 DNP
56 88 Jose Pena 2014 .000 DNP
57 88 Manuel Hernandez 2014 .000 DNP
58 88 Reid Fronk 2008 .000 DNP
59 88 Scott Robinson 2010 .000 DNP
60 88 Stephen Shults 2008 .000 DNP
61 88 James Jones 2010 .000 DNP
62 88 Justin Reynolds 2008 .000 DNP
63 88 Adam Walker 2013 .000 DNP
64 88 Bralin Jackson 2015 .000 DNP
65 88 Henry Charles 2015 .000 DNP
66 87 Jonathan Garcia 2013 .000 DNP
67 87 Andrew Lopez 2008 .000 DNP
68 87 Alex Presley 2007 .000 DNP
69 87 Edwin Gomez 2009 .000 DNP
70 87 T.J. Warren 2010 .000 DNP
71 87 Tyler Colvin 2007 .000 DNP
72 87 Mike Daniel 2006 .000 DNP
73 87 Wilman Rodriguez 2012 .000 DNP
74 87 Joshua Flores 2007 .000 DNP
75 87 Angel Castillo 2010 .000 DNP
76 87 Rashun Dixon 2012 .000 DNP
77 87 Lorenzo Cain 2007 .000 DNP
78 87 Dominique Taylor 2014 .000 DNP
79 87 Jesus Valdez 2006 .000 DNP
80 87 Felix Marte 2012 .000 DNP
81 87 Yorman Rodriguez 2014 .194
82 87 Roderick Bernadina 2014 .000 DNP
83 87 Carlos Gonzalez 2007 .000 DNP
84 87 Michael Taylor 2012 .000 DNP
85 86 Ryan Garvey 2014 .000 DNP
86 86 Kyeong Kang 2009 .000 DNP
87 86 Daniel Ortiz 2011 .000 DNP
88 86 Jorge Martinez 2014 .000 DNP
89 86 Hunter Jones 2013 .000 DNP
90 86 Yeicok Calderon 2013 .000 DNP
91 86 Zoilo Almonte 2010 .000 DNP
92 86 Phillips Castillo 2015 .000 DNP
93 86 Christopher Hawkins 2013 .000 DNP
94 86 Edgar Lara 2010 .000 DNP
95 86 Todd Glaesmann 2012 .000 DNP
96 86 Chris Lubanski 2006 .000 DNP
97 86 Reginald Lawson 2013 .000 DNP
98 86 Rene Tosoni 2008 .000 DNP
99 86 Connor Lien 2015 .000 DNP
100 86 Josh Reddick 2008 .000 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2016 Elier Hernandez made some strides last summer towards turning his estimable physical tools into production before hitting a wall in High-A; like the ghost pepper, a little bit of plate discipline can go a long, long way.
2015 Dominican bonus baby Elier Hernandez has the prototypical right field tool kit, but struggled to make contact and recognize spin during his full-season debut; eyes are more telling than numbers at this point, so let's wait until the kid is old enough to order a Zima before we start to worry.
2013 A $3 million international bonus baby, Elier Hernandez struggled in his first taste of professional ball, but scouts rave about his bat speed and believe that once he adapts, the power will come around.

BP Articles

Elier Hernandez is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, May 4, 2015Jeff Moore2015-05-05
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, April 22, 2015Jeff Moore2015-04-23
This article requires BP Premium accessLeague Preview Series: Carolina LeagueJordan Gorosh2015-03-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Outfield Prospects for 2016 and BeyondBen Carsley2015-02-11
This article requires BP Premium access2015 Prospects: Kansas City Royals Top 10 ProspectsBP Prospect Staff2015-01-26
This article requires BP Premium access2015 Prospects: Kansas City Royals Top 10 ProspectsNick J. Faleris2015-01-26
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, April 23Jeff Moore2014-04-24
This article requires BP Premium accessNotes from the Field: Sally, Florida State, and Southern League NotesJeff Moore2014-04-22
This article requires BP Premium accessNotes from the Field: Sally, Florida State, and Southern League NotesEthan Purser2014-04-22
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Outfield ProspectsBen Carsley2014-02-19
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Kansas City Royals Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2013-11-22
This article requires BP Premium accessPebble Hunting: Matt Harvey Pitching to PitchersSam Miller2013-06-24


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-09-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Did you get to see any Elier Hernandez and Samir Duenez this year in Lexington? Thoughts on them? Also: Dominique Taylor is fire.
(Daniel from Calgary)
I did. I wrote up Hernandez here.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23362

Hernandez has the tools to be an above-average corner outfielder but the hit tool underwhelmed in my viewing. Arm-side pitching gives him trouble, especially arms who can spin a decent breaking ball. If I could revise the above report, I'd probably turn him in as a AAA guy realistically. I was a bit optimistic on the realistic role and would adjust downward at this point, though the ceiling remains unchanged.

Duenez was underwhelming. He played an excellent first base, but the swing was slightly long and he struggled to barrel balls up in my viewing. He's very young, however, so I'll likely see him again next season in Low-A after he performed decently in the Pioneer League after being demoted. (Ethan Purser)
2013-09-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Brighter future: Manuel Margot or Elier Hernandez?
(j train and the big brain from cubicle)
Margot (Jason Parks)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Any recent reports on Elier Hernandez?
(KC from KC)
No I do not have any recent reports on Elier Hernandez, but I talked with a Latin America scout earlier in the year who was unimpressed with Hernandez's baseball ability. However, the same scout was very impressed how Hernandez looked physically. (Zach Mortimer)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.

 

PITCHf/x Hitter Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC