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"The most accurate insight into why teams really win and lose." --Jim Schwartz, Defensive Coordinator, Tennessee Titans

"A must for anyone interested in going beyond 'This guy has more yards, so he must be better.'" --King Kaufman, salon.com


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Pro Football Prospectus 2005 is now shipping for only $12.89--that's 32% off the cover price. Order your copy today!

For the over 14 million people who play fantasy football every year; for the hardcore fan who wants information beyond sports page recaps; for everyone who bets on the NFL; and for the smart, casual enthusiast looking for entertainment and insight comes the essential preseason annual. With numerous statistical measures that go far beyond standard NFL stats, Pro Football Prospectus finally gives NFL fans the kind of Sabermetric-like statistical analysis that revolutionized the fan’s understanding of baseball. And like its sister publication, Baseball Prospectus, it's written with a knowing dry wit that gets under the skin of America's most popular spectator sport.

Compared by The New York Times Magazine to Bill James, the baseball statistics guru, Aaron Schatz is revolutionizing the world of football statistics. In just two years his Web site, FootballOutsiders.com, is "by a huge margin, the Web’s best independent football site," writes Gregg Easterbrook of NFL.com. Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz of the Tennessee Titans calls it "The most accurate insight into why teams really win and lose" and King Kaufman of Salon.com calls it "a must for anyone interested in going beyond 'This guy has more yards, so he must be better.'"

Now Schatz and his team of Football Outsiders are continuing their groundbreaking work with a comprehensive, authoritative book of sophisticated statistical analysis.

It also offers solid predictions: in 2004, the Outsiders predicted six of eight division winners, including the Steelers’ champion season; the fading years of Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, and Charlie Garner; the breakout of the New York Jets; and the turnaround of Drew Brees and the San Diego offense.

About the Book

This year's book includes:

  • Groundbreaking team and player DVOA ratings that correct for situation and opponent to reveal which offenses and defenses are truly superior, and which players really help win games.
  • Unique Statistical Toolbox featuring DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement), or how many points a starting player adds to the team compared to a bench player; special teams measures which give the value of kickers and punters adjusted for weather and altitude; Stop Rate, or how often a defender makes a meaningful tackle; Adjusted Line Yards, which separate an offensive line from its running backs (newer, more accurate version than our website!); similarity scores with past players, and more.
  • Extensive coverage of all 32 teams with week-by-week stats from the 2004 season, five-year performance trends, and analysis of off-season personnel changes.
  • Exclusive 2005 predictions that give the odds on each team as a Super Bowl contender … or a contender for the top pick in the 2006 draft.
  • KUBIAK Projection System forecasting the 2005 fantasy football numbers for more than 500 skill position players based on expected role, recent performance, historical trends, age, and more.
  • An more advanced version of last year's ESPN.com piece on the best quarterback seasons of all time, now including rushing stats, sacks, and strength of schedule.
  • What the NFL fan should watch for during the 2005 college football season, according to the authors of Football Outsiders weekly column Seventh Day Adventure.

and research essays on

  • The 1998 Cardinals Revisited
  • Is Baltimore Telegraphing Its Pass Plays?
  • Carson Palmer vs. Byron Leftwich: The Effect of Schedule on Statistics
  • In Defense of Drew Bledsoe
  • In Defense of Mike Martz
  • Do Teams Gain Momentum with Long Drives?
  • Drive-Based Win Probability
  • The Effect of Pace in Football
  • The Effects of Weather and Altitude on Special Teams
  • Fantasy: Players on the Rise and Players to Avoid
  • The Five Injuries You Find in Football Hell
  • The Garbled Language of Fumbles
  • The High Cost of Sacks
  • How We Predicted San Diego’s Offensive Surge
  • The Most Important Real Estate in Football (or, Maroon Zone Revisited)
  • 'Tis Better to Have Rushed and Lost, Part II
  • What Happened to the Vikings in the Red Zone?
  • Wherefore Art Thou, Romeo (or, What Happens When Great Teams Lose Coordinators?)
  • and more!

Vital Statistics

  • Publisher: Workman
  • Publication Date: Now shipping
  • Cover Price: $18.95 (currently $12.89 at Amazon.com)
  • ISBN: 0-76114-019-0

Pre-Order the Book

You can order Pro Football Prospectus 2005 at the following online stores:

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