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Reintroducing PECOTA 

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The PECOTA cards are here, including 10-year projections and percentiles.

Without further ado, we present to you the PECOTA cards. Debuting on the cards are the 10-year forecasts and the percentile forecasts.

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The 2012 PECOTA projections are here, and Colin Wyers explains why looking further into the past makes PECOTA more accurate in predicting the future.

To access the 2012 PECOTA spreadsheet, click here.

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The big day is finally here: the "Deadly Accurate" projections have arrived, now laced with some new-flavor WARP.

And here we are–the release of the 2011 PECOTAs.

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How good are the PECOTA percentiles?

Let's talk percentiles.

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Teaching PECOTA about injuries.

Any forecasting system is only as good as the inputs that go into it—once you get rolling from there you can certainly end up far worse than your data, but the quality and amount of data you have is a fundamental constraint.

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PECOTA's strange history with Ichiro Suzuki suggests some areas for improvement.

Were Ichiro Suzuki represented by Scott Boras, the super-agent might be able to make a more convincing case than usual for his client’s singular, once-in-a-generation talent. Actually, Ichiro-types don’t come along even as often as that, especially in PECOTA’s post-World War II player comparison pool; the baseball gods appear to have both made and broken the mold especially for him.

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Examining the accuracy of PECOTA's past, and talking about its future.

Yesterday, Dave Pease went ahead and talked about the process of generating the PECOTA forecasts in the past. Now I’m here to talk about how PECOTA has fared, and where PECOTA is headed.

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To set up PECOTA week, here's a look back at how the sausage was made.

Welcome to PECOTA week here at Baseball Prospectus. All week, we'll be running content on the state of our projection system, covering where we're at and where we're going. To kick things off, let's pull back the curtain and have a look at the history of PECOTA production, which should answer a lot of questions readers have asked.

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