Search Reintroducing PECOTA
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No More Column Entries The PECOTA cards are here, including 10-year projections and percentiles.
Without further ado, we present to you the
cards. Debuting on the cards are the 10-year forecasts and the percentile forecasts. PECOTA Read the full article... The 2012 PECOTA projections are here, and Colin Wyers explains why looking further into the past makes PECOTA more accurate in predicting the future.
To access the 2012 spreadsheet, click PECOTA here. Read the full article... The big day is finally here: the "Deadly Accurate" projections have arrived, now laced with some new-flavor WARP.
And here we are–the release of the 2011 PECOTAs.
Read the full article... How good are the PECOTA percentiles?
Let's talk percentiles.
Read the full article...
September 30, 2010 8:00 am
Teaching PECOTA about injuries.
Any forecasting system is only as good as the inputs that go into it—once you get rolling from there you can certainly end up far worse than your data, but the quality and amount of data you have is a fundamental constraint.
Read the full article...
September 29, 2010 8:00 am
PECOTA's strange history with Ichiro Suzuki suggests some areas for improvement.
represented by Scott Boras, the super-agent might be able to make a more convincing case than usual for his client’s Ichiro Suzuki singular, once-in-a-generation talent. Actually, Ichiro-types don’t come along even as often as that, especially in ’s post-World War II player comparison pool; the baseball gods appear to have both made and broken the mold especially for him. PECOTA Read the full article...
September 28, 2010 8:00 am
Examining the accuracy of PECOTA's past, and talking about its future.
September 27, 2010 8:00 am
To set up PECOTA week, here's a look back at how the sausage was made.
Welcome to week here at Baseball Prospectus. All week, we'll be running content on the state of our projection system, covering where we're at and where we're going. To kick things off, let's pull back the curtain and have a look at the history of PECOTA production, which should answer a lot of questions readers have asked. PECOTA Read the full article...
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