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04-17

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8

Pebble Hunting: Every Manager's Face: The New Guys
by
Sam Miller

04-11

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5

Pebble Hunting: Your Five Favorite Players of 2014
by
Sam Miller

04-09

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16

Pebble Hunting: Max Scherzer and the Sabermetric Approach to Pitching to the Count
by
Sam Miller

04-07

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7

Pebble Hunting: It's Been One Week
by
Sam Miller

04-04

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Best Pitches Thrown This Week
by
Sam Miller

04-02

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11

Pebble Hunting: Bonds vs. Pedro, and More Fun with Batter-Pitcher Matchups
by
Sam Miller

03-31

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3

Pebble Hunting: Mike Trout vs. Felix Hernandez
by
Sam Miller

03-28

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30

Pebble Hunting: BOOM! HERE COMES THE BOOM! READY OR NOT! HERE COMES THE BOYS FROM THE TIGERS!
by
Sam Miller

03-26

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2

Pebble Hunting: What We Can Learn from the Expos
by
Sam Miller

03-21

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37

Pebble Hunting: The Simulated Seasons Where the Astros Make the Playoffs
by
Sam Miller

03-14

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24

Pebble Hunting: Sounding the Depths of Each Team's Rotation
by
Sam Miller

03-12

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Complicated Decline of Brandon Phillips
by
Sam Miller

03-07

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23

Pebble Hunting: Billy Hamilton, Usain Bolt, and Whether 90 Feet is Still Enough
by
Sam Miller

03-05

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30

Pebble Hunting: The Best GIFs of the 2014 Baseball Season
by
Sam Miller

03-03

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7

Pebble Hunting: Mike Trout and the Meaning of $140 Million
by
Sam Miller

02-28

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8

Pebble Hunting: The Pitchers Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

02-26

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11

Pebble Hunting: Introducing the Attackability Score
by
Sam Miller

02-24

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18

Pebble Hunting: The Position Players Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

02-14

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21

Pebble Hunting: The Search for Yuni's Successor
by
Sam Miller

02-12

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15

Pebble Hunting: The Importance of Top Prospect Trajectories
by
Sam Miller

02-10

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7

Pebble Hunting: Yasiel Puig and the Prototypical Young Hitter
by
Sam Miller

02-04

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20

Pebble Hunting: Watching the Worst Game of 2013
by
Sam Miller

01-31

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Opt-Out Hater's Case for Opt-Outs
by
Sam Miller

01-28

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8

Pebble Hunting: Who's Faster, Mike Trout or Peter Bourjos?
by
Sam Miller

01-22

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17

Pebble Hunting: Do the Astros Deserve to Be Shamed?
by
Sam Miller

01-17

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21

Pebble Hunting: What it Means to Have the Best Farm System in Baseball, Part Two
by
Sam Miller

01-09

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15

Pebble Hunting: The Year's 10 Best Slides: A Slide Show (Again)
by
Sam Miller

01-03

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16

Pebble Hunting: The Weirdness of Walking Barry Bonds
by
Sam Miller

11-26

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37

Pebble Hunting: Extrapolating the Breakdown of Traditional Defense
by
Sam Miller

11-19

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26

Pebble Hunting: The Hall of Fame 50 Percent Probability Test
by
Sam Miller

11-12

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2

Pebble Hunting: Rereading Nate Silver: 5. The Colorado Effect
by
Sam Miller

11-06

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7

Pebble Hunting: The Stupidest Part of Baseball
by
Sam Miller

11-04

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9

Pebble Hunting: Your New Favorite Player
by
Sam Miller

10-23

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8

Pebble Hunting: What To Talk About When the Red Sox Are Hitting
by
Sam Miller

10-10

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16

Pebble Hunting: The Season in Pain
by
Sam Miller

09-27

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3

Pebble Hunting: The Hypotheses That Require Revisiting
by
Sam Miller

09-23

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7

Pebble Hunting: Pedro Hernandez and the Rashomon Project
by
Sam Miller, R.J. Anderson, Dan Brooks and Dan Rozenson

09-20

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10

Pebble Hunting: Attacking Andrew McCutchen
by
Sam Miller

09-18

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5

Pebble Hunting: Why Koji Uehara?
by
Sam Miller

09-16

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11

Pebble Hunting: The 45-Strikeouts, One-Walk Pitcher
by
Sam Miller

09-13

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14

Pebble Hunting: Casting the Most Unconventional MVP Vote
by
Sam Miller

09-11

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12

Pebble Hunting: The A's and Building a Bullpen By Attrition
by
Sam Miller

09-09

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4

Pebble Hunting: The Jeff Mathis Effect on Jose Fernandez
by
Sam Miller

09-06

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2

Pebble Hunting: Mike Trout vs. David Price
by
Sam Miller

09-04

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12

Pebble Hunting: The Most Depressing Age-27 Seasons of 2013
by
Sam Miller

08-30

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8

Pebble Hunting: What We Rap About When We Rap About Baseball
by
Sam Miller

08-26

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32

Pebble Hunting: Five Myths About the Angels' Impending Shakeup
by
Sam Miller

08-23

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5

Pebble Hunting: Free Agent Alternate History
by
Sam Miller

08-21

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14

Pebble Hunting: Appreciating Andrelton Simmons
by
Sam Miller

08-19

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8

Pebble Hunting: My Book Report on a Video of the Longest Home Runs Hit
by
Sam Miller

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Reading the faces of Lloyd McClendon, Rick Renteria, Matt Williams, Brad Ausmus, and Bryan Price.

Part 1
Part 2

Lotta new faces in the game this year, and those new faces have faces. Look at their faces:



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April 11, 2014 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Your Five Favorite Players of 2014

5

Sam Miller

Sam checks in on his predictions about which players you'd fall for this year.

Just after the World Series last year, I told you who your five favorite players were going to be this season, now that Koji Uehara’s on a major label . A prediction that isn’t revisited is just an opinion, so in the interest of accountability it’s important that we periodically make sure that one of these players has become your favorite player. So, nearly two weeks into the season, is one of these players your favorite player? Yes! One of them is. Here are your New Favorite Player power rankings:

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Does Max Scherzer have a secret skill, and if so, can it be taught to other pitchers?

Tuesday night, Tigers against the Dodgers, third inning, this sequence:

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April 7, 2014 12:23 pm

Pebble Hunting: It's Been One Week

7

Sam Miller

A division can't be won or lost in the first week, but these teams did have relatively hefty playoff-odds swings already.

Last year, the Patriot-News of Harrisburg, PA issued a correction for a piece it had written on the Gettysburg Address, 150 years earlier. “We pass over the silly remarks of the President,” they had written in 1863. “For the credit of the nation we are willing that the veil of oblivion shall be dropped over them and that they shall be no more repeated or thought of." It took some time, yes, but Patriot-News staff eventually did check themselves before they wrecked themselves.

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April 4, 2014 6:30 am

Pebble Hunting: The Best Pitches Thrown This Week

13

Sam Miller

In all of their GIF-y glory.

Baseball's back, which means: PITCHES! Literally. Without the pitches, we'd still be waiting for the season to start. Thank heavens for pitches!

3. Jose Fernandez’s changeup
In his remarkable Opening Day start, Fernandez threw just seven changeups. This isn’t an entirely insignificant thing to note; late last year I tracked Fernandez’s emergence as an ace to Jeff Mathis’ emergence as his personal catcher. Mathis generally calls fewer changeups than his teammates, and Mathis often pocketed Fernandez’s changeup completely for entire starts at a time. Overall, Fernandez cut his changeup usage nearly in half as he worked with Mathis, and in his first start throwing to Jarrod Saltalamacchia he maintained the reduced changeup usage. By the way, this is what that changeup looked like on Monday, and what a batter swinging at that changeup looked like:


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What would happen if several hitters and pitchers of interest faced each other for full seasons?

As we talked about on Monday, Mike Trout has hit Felix Hernandez very well. After his first-inning home run on Opening Day, Trout is now hitting .441/.447/.794 in 38 plate appearances against Hernandez since being called up to the majors for good in April 2012. The question for the day, then, is this: How well should Mike Trout do against Felix Hernandez?

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March 31, 2014 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Mike Trout vs. Felix Hernandez

3

Sam Miller

Trout faces Felix on Opening Day. How has Hernandez attacked Trout, and how has Trout hit him so hard?

In 2011, when Mike Trout made his major-league debut, it was at home against the Seattle Mariners. In the final game of the series he had to face Felix Hernandez, and it didn’t go well. Twice he got ahead in the count but tapped back to the pitcher on 2-1 sliders. In his only other at-bat that day, he struck out looking on three consecutive pitches.

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The most outlandish fan trade proposal ever, and the world where it happened.

On December 9th, a Tigers fan named CameronK200II984* logged on to SB Nation and, in the comments of a Grant Brisbee post, laid out his audacious plan for the Detroit Tigers to lock up the AL Central. Audacious is the wrong word. Insane? Unhinged? No. Not...quite...right. Oh, right, I got it: Prophetic.

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March 26, 2014 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: What We Can Learn from the Expos

2

Sam Miller

A review of Jonah Keri's "Up, Up & Away," a history of the Montreal Expos.

Among Jonah Keri’s many contributions to our baseball-reading world—his excellent 2011 book about the Tampa Bay Rays; his editing of, in my opinion, the finest Baseball Prospectus annual ever—is his very first article at BP: The Success Cycle. In it, he describes the way each club’s place in the winning cycle should drive its decision-making. A simple enough proposition, and one that has arguably lost its power as the business of baseball has changed, but inherent in it is the idea that baseball clubs exist for a very long time, and the decisions they make must be viewed on a long timeline.

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Our playoff odds simulated the season 50,000 times. In 1.3 percent of those simulations, the Astros made the playoffs. How the heck?

“If the Astros win 70 there might be a celestial event that has never been seen before.” —BP reader Old Bopper, here.

***

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March 14, 2014 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Sounding the Depths of Each Team's Rotation

24

Sam Miller

How bad will things get for your team when two starters go down?

The problem is, people get hurt. People get hurt, you’re going to expose your lack of depth. There just is no depth. There is no number six. If Joe Blanton pitches an inning this year it will be just a catastrophe for the Angels and I don’t knowShoemaker? Is that number six? Even in my ideal world I’m trying to figure out who is number six. Matt Welch, author of the Angels chapter in this year’s annual, on Effectively Wild.

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March 12, 2014 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: The Complicated Decline of Brandon Phillips

13

Sam Miller

Why it's problematic to point out that a player isn't as good as he once was.

Brandon Phillips is declining. Around 13 years ago, his lung capacity began decreasing, and in another couple decades it will be half what it was when he was 20. He's losing neurons in his brain—up to 10,000 per day. Around the age of 30, his major organs began to lose function, and his muscles began to lose mass. His maximum attainable heart rate is dropping by a beat per year, and his capacity to pump blood is shrinking, too. The first symptoms of mild-moderate cognitive impairment often start around this time, slowing his brain's processing speed and affecting memory and attention.

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