It's my pleasure to inform you that we have started producing PECOTA updates for rest-of-season performance.
Before we get into the details, let's clarify what is being updated. The changes will affect:
Games of Tuesday, May 7
Christian Yelich showed off his plus-plus hit tool in a five-knock effort for Double-A Jacksonville.
Pitching Prospect of the Day: Alec Asher, RHP, Rangers (High-A Myrtle Beach): 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K; big frame; fastball can reach plus velocity; will need to locate because it can straighten out on him; slider with plus potential; curveball and changeup both developing into major-league-quality pitches; thanks to my good friend Jason Cole for the info.
Position Prospect of the Day: Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins (Double-A Jacksonville): 5-6, 2 3B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI; sweetest swing in the minors; plus-plus potential hit tool; excellent plate discipline; solid-average power potential; solid average runner; will profile better in left field; not far from big-league ready; .281/.339/.481 with 5 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR in 58 at-bats.
Other notable prospect performances from April 7:
- Jorge Alfaro, C, Rangers (Low-A Hickory): 2-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB; five-tool catcher if that is even possible; arm has elite strength but plays down because of footwork; plus-plus raw power; plus runner; potential plus glove behind the plate; hit tool has a chance to be solid average. “The Legend” has the potential to be a top-shelf prospect, but he still needs to mature and polish his tools in Low-A.
- Miguel Almonte, RHP, Royals (Low-A Lexington): 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K; can run fastball up to 95; slider has a chance to be a usable major-league pitch; some see the changeup as a plus-plus offering; 30.2 IP, 29 H, 12 ER, 10 BB, 29 K in six starts.
- Lewis Brinson, CF, Rangers (Low-A Hickory): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI, K; shows all five tools; easy plus raw power; plus arm; plus run; plus ability with the glove in center; hit tool still needs development; potential to be a 7 overall player.
- Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Rockies (Triple-A Colorado Springs): 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K; plus fastball; plus curveball; average changeup; shoving in Triple-A to start the season; 23.2 IP, 21 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 25 K in four starts.
- Jarred Cosart, RHP, Astros (Triple-A Oklahoma City): 5.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K; plus-plus fastball; plus curveball; inconsistent changeup; mechanics better suited to relief role; 33.0 IP, 25 H, 8 ER, 14 BB, 39 K in seven appearances.
- David Dahl, CF, Rockies (Low-A Asheville): 2-2, 2B, R, 3 RBI; he’s back! Potential for a plus-plus hit tool; mixed reviews on power potential from below average to solid average; solid-average defensive ability in center; plus runner.
- Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates (Low-A West Virginia); 5.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 10 K; fastball can touch plus velocity; curveball is an easy plus pitch; changeup is development; command still developing; in process of smoothing out mechanics; 25.0 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 17 BB, 33 K in six starts.
- Nathan Karns, RHP, Nationals (Double-A Harrisburg): 5.0, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K; plus fastball; easy plus curveball; developing changeup; stock on the rise; will be a valuable piece for the Nationals whether it’s with them or as a trade chip; 32.2 IP, 22 H, 11 ER, 14 BB, 40 K in six starts.
- Tommy La Stella, 2B, Braves (Double-A Mississippi): 3-6, 2 2B, 3B, 2 R, 4 RBI; solid-average potential for hit tool; gap power; excellent plate discipline; solid second-base profile defensively; injury history; getting his first taste of Double-A at age 24.
- Rafael Montero, RHP, Mets (Double-A Binghamton): 6.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K; plus fastball; slider and changeup will both be usable major-league pitches; plus command; not far from being major-league ready; 40.2 IP, 32 H, 16 ER, 6 BB, 48 K in seven starts.
- Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays (High-A Dunedin): 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K; fastball up to 95; starting to throw a slider which works at 88-89; good life; changeup has plus potential; liked what I saw from the curveball this spring; easy plus potential; 34.2 IP, 20 H, 10 ER, 10 BB, 34 K in seven starts this season.
- Joey Terdoslavich, 1B/3B/OF, Braves (Triple-A Gwinnett): 2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI, K; solid-average power potential; average major-league hit tool; diversifying himself defensively; below-average runner; a lot of pressure will be put on the bat; currently blocked in Atlanta; .341/.353/.605 with 14 2B, 1 3B, and 6 HR in 129 at-bats this season.
- Alex Torres, LHP, Rays (Triple-A Durham): 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K; low-90s fastball with good life; slider and changeup both have bat missing ability; deceptive delivery; small frame; jury still out on whether he is a back-end starter or reliever; 32.0 IP, 19 H, 6 ER, 11 BB, 41 K in six starts.
- Mike Zunino, C, Mariners (Triple-A Tacoma): 3-4; hit tool will grade around average, but can be exploited by quality pitching; should provide average power; still developing ability to receive; got into an awful slump; expect to see him in the big leagues at some point this summer.
- Alex Liddi, 3B, Mariners (Triple-A Tacoma): 0-4, 3 K; significant swing and miss in his offensive game; good power source; blocked in Seattle.
- Hudson Randall, RHP, Tigers (High-A Lakeland): 2.0 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 0 K; the former weekend starter for the University of Florida has had a tough transition to High-A; will receive fringy prospect grades at best, but as we approach college baseball playoff time, it speaks to how different the pro game is.
- Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates (Double-A Altoona): 3.0 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K; best curveball in the minor leagues; plus fastball; still developing the changeup. Starts like this show that Taillon still has to improve his command before he is ready to show off his stuff in the big leagues.
The 5th installment of the Fringe Average Podcast. Mike learns an important lesson about saftey goggles, while Jason goes out with the popular girl, only to find out, it isn't as glamorous as he anticipated.
After a week off, Jason and Mike respond to listener e-mails, including talk on spitballs, catchers, and how you define "command." They also talk about Twins prospects, young players who've started their careers, and Kendall Rogers. Music from The Bear Coat.
Effectively Wild Episode 197: Our Incredibly Premature All-Star Picks
With All-Star voting officially underway, Ben and Sam make their incredibly premature picks, with Jason Wojciechowski joining them to settle any disputes.
With All-Star voting officially underway, Ben and Sam make their incredibly premature picks, with Jason Wojciechowski joining them to settle any disputes.
Games of Monday, May 6
Adam Brett Walker's impressive pop makes him an intriguing prospect despite his defensive shortcomings in the outfield.
Pitching Prospect of the Day: Yordano Ventura, RHP, Royals (Double-A Northwest Arkansas): 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K; elite fastball; easy plus curveball; changeup has made huge steps forward and now has solid-average potential; most scouts now believe he will stay as a starter; number-two ceiling; will be able to provide value to the Royals in 2013, either with his own skills or as the centerpiece of a trade to address a major-league need; 23.1 IP, 17 H, 6 ER, 9 BB, 33 K in five starts.
Position Prospect of the Day: Adam Walker, RF, Twins (Low-A Cedar Rapids): 3-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 5 RBI, 2 K; plus-plus raw power; developing hit tool; solid-average runner; crude in the outfield; power makes him an interesting prospect to follow as he progresses; .288/.351/.558 with 6 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR in 104 at-bats.
Other notable prospect performances from May 6:
- Martin Agosta, RHP, Giants (Low-A Augusta): 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 10 K; 22-year-old college arm carving up Low-A; solid-average fastball; slider has average potential; changeup is plus; 31.1 IP, 22 H, 7 ER, 13 BB, 45 K in six starts.
- Tyler Anderson, LHP, Rockies (High-A Modesto): 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K; solid-average fastball; plus changeup; fringy breaking ball; plus pitchability; 39.2 IP, 33 H, 14 ER, 10 BB, 36 K in seven starts this season.
- D.J. Baxendale, RHP, Twins (High-A Fort Myers): 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K; fringy fastball; plus potential curveball; changeup is a work in progress; college arm; will need to prove himself at higher levels; 36.1 IP, 24 H, 6 ER, 6 BB, 35 K in six starts.
- Clayton Blackburn, RHP, Giants (High-A San Jose): 5.0 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K; plus fastball; potential plus changeup; potential solid-average curveball; good pitchability; big, filled-out frame.
- Bryan Brickhouse, RHP, Royals (Low-A Lexington): 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K; fastball works in the low 90s and can touch higher; shows feel for spinning the curveball effectively, but lacks consistency; changeup can get firm; some see him as a high-leverage reliever; 33.2 IP, 27 H, 9 ER, 7 BB, 30 K in 6 starts this season.
- Glynn Davis, CF, Orioles (High-A Frederick): 2-3, 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, K; plus-plus runner; potential plus center fielder; good bat speed; swing can get long versus breaking stuff; bat will need to take at least a few steps forward.
- Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi): 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K; plus fastball; potential solid-average changeup; potential solid-average curveball; big frame; profiles best as a middle-of-the-rotation starter; this was his Double-A debut.
- Michael Reed, OF, Brewers (Low-A Wisconsin): 2-3, 2B, 2 RBI, BB; plus runner; solid-average range; solid-average arm; hit tool may be average; power may be below average, at best; .282/.347/.388 with 5 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, and 6 SB in 85 at-bats this season.
- Angel Sanchez, RHP, Dodgers (Low-A Great Lakes): 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K; fastball can touch plus velocity; slider with plus potential; developing changeup; command wavers; already 23 years old; 33.0 IP, 29 H, 17 ER, 13 BB, 33 K in six starts.
- Reid Scoggins, RHP, Angels (Low-A Burlington): 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K; fastball can touch plus-plus velocity; slider has solid-average potential; future reliever; delivery has considerable effort in it; 18.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 22 K in six outings this season.
- Jorge Soler, RF, Cubs, (High-A Daytona): 2-4, 3B, HR, 2 R, RBI; plus-plus raw power; plus arm; developing hit tool; solid average runner; good right-field profile.
- Tyler Smith, RHP, Rangers (Low-A Hickory): 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K; upper 80s-low 90s fastball; slider and changeup are both fringy; will have to prove himself at each level; 29.1 IP, 25 H, 10 ER, 8 BB, 26 K in eight appearances.
- Andrew Toles, CF, Rays (Low-A Bowling Green): 2-3, 2B, 3B, R, RBI; solid-average hit tool; gap power; solid-average runner; will need to take steps forward with plate discipline; athletic player whose stock is on the rise; .328/.365/.538 with 10 2B, 6 3B, HR in 119 at-bats.
- Jesse Winker, LF, Reds (Low-A Dayton): 2-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI; potential for a plus hit tool; plus power upside; advanced baseball instincts; arm is average; may be limited to left field; bat will have to reach ceiling for him to profile in left; .284/.393/.474 with 7 2B, 3B, 3 HR in 95 at-bats this season.
Why The Angels, Blue Jays, and Dodgers Have Non-Zero Playoff Odds
Bad stretches happen.
I'm dumb, so when I see something like the Angels falling nine games out of first place after 31 games, I think "welp, that'll do it then." And then when I look at the playoff odds and see that they're still 20 percent likely to make the playoffs, I'm surprised. I understand the mechanisms at work -- the Angels are probably a good team, and so the odds expect them to play like a good team going forward -- but it's impossible to imagine any team making up an 11-20 stretch. It's impossible to imagine it because I'm dumb. It shouldn't be that hard to imagine.
May 6, 2013 3:24 PM
The Week In Albert Pujols Playing Through Pain, April 29-May 5
Albert Pujols is in pain and slow.
On Sunday, Albert Pujols sat out. The Angels are off Monday, so he'll get the two-day rest, after which, Mike Scioscia says, the Angels will "see where he is Tuesday." Which might just mean "we'll see if he feels better Tuesday." Or if might mean "we'll see where he is Tuesday, as we decide what to do about this." The team "stepped up" his treatment Saturday. Poor guy keeps trying, keeps being hard to watch, keeps being in a lot of pain.
May 6, 2013 1:26 PM
Games of May 2-May 5
Indians righty Danny Salazar owns an electric fastball and should garner more attention than he has received.
Games of Thursday, May 2
Pitching Prospect of the Day: Danny Salazar, RHP, Indians (Double-A Akron): 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 12 K; plus-plus fastball; plus curveball; changeup is developing and shows signs of being at least average; one of the least-talked-about pitching prospects; high-third-starter ceiling; 28.2 IP, 22 H, 9 ER, 9 BB, 43 K in six starts.
Position Prospect of the Day: Jonathan Villar, SS, Astros (Triple-A Oklahoma City): 4-4, 2B, HR, 5 RBI; pure shortstop; plus-plus runner; potential average hit tool; can provide gap power; overall first-division ceiling; .314/.357/.495 with 7 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, and 8 SB in 105 at-bats this year.
Other notable prospect performances from May 2:
- Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (Double-A Portland): 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, K; after struggling in spring training and early in the season, Bogaerts has found his swing; middle-of-the-lineup offensive potential; hit and power tools both have easy plus potential; plus arm; long-term defensive position still a question mark; .333/.417/.643 with 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR in last 10 games.
- Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks (Double-A Mobile): 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K; first Double-A start; top-shelf stuff; easy plus-plus fastball; potential plus =-plus curveball; changeup with at least solid-average potential; big frame; ultra athletic; one of the top pitching prospects in the game.
- Eddie Butler, RHP, Rockies (Low-A Asheville): 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K; check out the Monday Ten Pack for a complete breakdown of Butler by Jason Cole; 35.0 IP, 17 H, 8 ER, 17 BB, 33 K in six starts this season.
- Jabari Henry, OF, Mariners (Low-A Clinton): 2-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI; solid-average raw power; solid-average runner; solid-average arm; hit tool will be put to the test as he advances throughthe minors; .397/.511/.616 with 7 2B, 3 HR, 18 BB, 7 K in 73 at-bats this season.
- K.C. Hobson, 1B, Blue Jays (High-A Dunedin): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI; good bat speed; can make loud contact; swing will get lengthy; fringy prospect at best.
- Jake Lamb, 3B, Diamondbacks (High-A Visalia): 4-6, HR, R, 4 RBI; plus raw power; plus arm; making strides on shortening swing; good baseball instincts; one to keep an eye on; .391/.500/.732 with 5 2B and 3 HR in 41 at-bats.
- Jake Marisnick, CF, Marlins (Double-A Jacksonville): 3-5, 2B, 2 R, RBI, BB, K; centerpiece of the package the Marlins received from Blue Jays; five-tool potential; some scouts believe both hit and power will be plus; plus runner; plus arm; will be able to stay in center; I am a believer.
- Daniel Robertson, SS, Athletics (Low-A Beloit): 3-4, 2B, HR, R, RBI, K; potential plus hit tool; average runner; average arm; good feel for the game at a young age; one to follow; 10-for-24 with 3 2B, and 2 HR thus far;
- Chris Stratton, RHP, Giants (Low-A Augusta): 6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K; handling Low-A batters; plus fastball; plus slider; curveball and changeup both have big-league potential; 28.2 IP, 18 H, 9 ER, 11 BB, 36 K in five starts this year.
- Blake Swihart, C, Red Sox (High-A Salem): 3-5, 2B, 3B, R, RBI; tracks ball well; potential solid-average hit tool; average power potential; good work ethic; needs to add mass to lower half.
- Oscar Taveras, CF, Cardinals (Triple-A Memphis): 2-3, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB; tools are all still there; monster just waiting for a chance; .294/.341/.447 with 4 2B and 3 HR in 85 at-bats.
- Nik Turley, LHP, Yankees (Double-A Trenton): 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K; solid-average fastball; solid-average curveball; developing changeup; endured a tough start to Double-A season.
- Kelvin Vasquez, RHP, Rangers (Low-A Hickory): 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K; able to handle Low-A hitting with a fastball up to 96; still working to develop secondary offerings; 20.0 IP, 18 H, 11 ER, 15 BB, 16 K in six outings this year.
- Gabriel Ynoa, RHP, Mets (Low-A Savannah): 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K; low 90s fastball with sink; potential average changeup; currently fringy slider with average potential; 28.1 IP, 23 H, 11 ER, 6 BB, 27 K in five starts this year.