BP Announcements

Baseball Prospectus Visits Rangers Ballpark - April 21, 2013

2013 Stadium events kick off in Arlington

Baseball Prospectus and the Texas Rangers invite you to join us for a great day of baseball on Sunday, April 21 at Rangers Ballpark.Thanks to the fine folks in the Rangers front office, we are proud to be able to offer our guests the following:

• Admittance to a private "meet and greet" with special guests and Baseball Prospectus personalities (including Jason Parks, Joe Hamrahi, Paul Sporer, Jason Cole, and Kendall Rogers from Perfect Game) in the Texas Rangers Hall of Fame room 2 hours prior to game time
• All you can eat grilled chicken sandwiches, hot dogs, peanuts, popcorn, nachos, and soft drinks served in an air-conditioned grill in the Upper Home Run Porch
• A question and answer session with Texas Rangers General Manager Jon Daniels
• Ticket to Rangers Ballpark to watch the Rangers take on the Seattle Mariners with Baseball Prospectus fans and staff
• A $15 coupon to be used toward a new Baseball Prospectus Premium subscription or your next Premium renewal

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BP Fantasy Podcast

Episode 27: I Wanna Know What WAR Is

Jason and Paul talk about the latest trades, signings, and go on a Hall of Fame rant related to some recent silliness by the "protectors of the game".

Jason and Paul talk about the latest trades, signings, and go on a Hall of Fame rant related to some recent silliness by the "protectors of the game".

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Madden article referenced in the show

Brookover article referenced in the show

fantasyhour@baseballprospectus.com

@sporer

@jasoncollette

Total show time: 1 hours, 56 minutes

Happy Holidays

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BP Unfiltered

Daily Draft Video: Weekend Flashback (Zunino vs Hultzen)

Daily Draft Video Weekend Flashback takes a look at today's top prospects before they were pros.

Mike Zunino and Danny Hultzen were two of the top prospects featured in this year's Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects here at Baseball Prospectus. Today’s Draft Video Weekend Flashback features these former top five overall picks (combined $10.35MM) in pre-draft action.

BP Unfiltered

Daily Draft Video: Weekend Flashback (Fulmer vs Cecchini)

Daily Draft Video Weekend Flashback takes a look at today's top prospects before they were pros.

Michael Fulmer and Gavin Cecchini were two of the top prospects featured in this year's New York Mets Top 10 Prospects here at Baseball Prospectus. Today’s Draft Video Weekend Flashback features Fulmer and Cecchini in pre-draft action.

BP Unfiltered

The Philosophy of Park Factors

Why we don't use component park factors in TAv.

There was some chatter on Twitter this morning about park factors, and Marc Normandin made the point that all of the most common park-adjusted offensive stats out there (TAv, OPS+, wRC+) use "generic" run-based park factors, not component park factors. (Baseball Prospectus does have component park factors which we use in PECOTA, and we use those to generate our run-based park factors, but we use run-based park factors in TAv.) Marc wondered if using one-size-fits-all rather than the component factors might lead to inaccuracies—after all, we know different parks affect different types of hitters in different ways, and our park adjustment methods here don't account for that. (Marc isn't the first to raise this point, by the way.) So why do we all do it this way?

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Wezen-Ball

Apocalyptic Fiction (Featuring the Chicago Cubs)

It's the eve of armageddon and a major league manager controls the fate of the world.

It's the eve of armageddon and a major league manager controls the fate of the world.

The Cold War rages, tensions are high. The Soviets have positioned troops in Sri Lanka and the Americans are insisting that they be removed. Meanwhile, Al Tiller, manager of the Chicago Cubs, is positioning his club for their first pennant in over forty years. Armed with the checkbook of new Cubs owner Chester A. Rowdy, the billionaire discoverer of an Alabaman super worm, the northsiders have one of the most expensive and powerful offenses ever assembled. It doesn't matter if their shortstop and second baseman are both really third baseman when they're being paid obscene amounts of money to help the team.

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BP Unfiltered

The Best Comments About Mike Minor from May

Things people said that look less smart in retrospect (and probably didn't sound that smart at the time).

Elsewhere on the site today, I have an article up about Braves starter Mike Minor, who was awful early in the season and excellent (at least in terms of preventing runs) after May. In that article, I referred to a May 22nd post by Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who cited Minor's respectable xFIP and dared to raise the idea—without ever officially endorsing it, mind you—that he might not continue to allow home runs quite as often as he had to that point. That post got 107 comments. These are the best 15.

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Minor League Update

Games of December 20

Notes from around the Caribbean Winter Leagues

Another left-handed reliever got paid on Thursday when Tom Gorzelanny, who has a career 4.41 ERA in 735 career big league innings (2.88 ERA in 45 relief appearances with the Nationals in 2012), agreed to a two-year deal with the Brewers for an estimated $6 million. If you throw left-handed and are halfway decent at pitching, chances are you can get a nice fat paycheck in the major leagues.

This is why a guy like 36 year-old J.C. Romero is pitching this winter in Puerto Rico (1.69 ERA, 10.2 IP, 2 BB, 12 K, 6 Sv), hoping to latch on with another club before Spring Training. He's been with seven different teams and been released five times in the past two years. Still, he'll probably get another opportunity because he's left-handed and has had some past success.

Pedro Feliciano, another 36 year-old lefty pitching in Puerto Rico, can surprisingly still throw a baseball after making 92 appearances with the Mets in 2010. He missed the past two seasons with shoulder trouble but as long as his arm doesn't fall off over the next few weeks, he'll get an invite to Spring Training from some team. So far, so good. Feliciano's left arm is still attached and he's allowed just one earned run and two hits over four innings with one walk and four strikeouts.  

Other notable performances from La Liga de Beisbol Profesional Roberto Clemente  

• Anthony Garcia, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: 3-for-5, HR (2), 2 RBI, K. Drafted as a catcher in the 18th Round of the 2009 draft, Garcia was shifted to the outfield the following year and has shown enough pop to think he can continue to move up the ladder as a corner outfielder. The 20 year-old had 19 homers and 34 doubles in 109 games with Lo-A Quad Cities in 2012 and has solid numbers in Puerto Rico (.801 OPS), although he's done most of his damage against lefties (7-for-11, HR, 2B, 3B, 4 BB).
• Daniel Ortiz, OF, Minnesota Twins: 3-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI. Former 4th Round pick is a 'tweener' (not enough bat for corner outfield, not enough speed for center field), but the 22 year-old is having a terrific season for Mayaguez with a .333 BA, seven doubles, eight walks, and a homer in 30 games.
• Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: 1-for-2, 2 BB. Time to check in on the 42 million dollar man,  who was impressive in 23 games (1.076 OPS) between the Arizona Rookie League and Hi-A California League after signing a seven-year major league deal earlier this year. The 22 year-old out of Cuba is hitting .262 with a homer and three doubles in his first 12 games with Mayaguez.

Notable performances from La Liga Venezuela Beisbol Profesional  

• Freddy Galvis, IF, Philadelphia Phillies: 2-for-4. Extended hitting streak to seven-games (11-for-31, 2 2B), raising his batting average to .298 in 55 games. Did I mention that the 23 year-old Galvis is a defensive whiz? Whenever I write about Galviz, it's mandatory that I call him a 'defensive whiz'.
• Evan Gattis, OF, Atlanta Braves: 2-for-3, HR (14), 3 RBI. The 26 year-old continues to hit home runs and the Braves continue to insist that he has a chance to win the starting left field job in 2013. I doubt that but he could help them at some point next season. 
• Adys Portillo, RHP, San Diego Padres: IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K. When Kevin Goldstein ranked Portillo as the Padres' #7 prospect before the 2010 season, he wrote that he had the ceiling of a 'star-level starter' and was 'loaded with projection'. However, his path to the big leagues, according to Goldstein, was 'going to take a while'. Three years later, we can at least say that the 21 year-old has made some progress -- he dominated in Lo-A during the 1st half of 2012 -- but it's still going to take a while. He recently had six walks in a span of four innings, and since has no walks or runs in his last four innings.