CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Fantasy Players to Avoid 

Search Fantasy Players to Avoid

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives
<< Previous Column Entries No More Column Entries

Our staff thinks you'd be better off letting someone else draft or buy these players in your leagues this spring.

There are a lot of things in life you want to avoid, including but not limited to: bad fish, going into space without enough oxygen, and pointless arguments on social media. Below are five third basemen who members of our staff think you should avoid as well.

Evan Longoria, Rays
Evan Longoria is still only two years removed from being one of the most talented third basemen in the league, but that feels like ages ago. While name value may have carried him last season, that time is likely over. Even given that, he’s still not someone you want to be targeting. At his peak, Longoria was a consistent threat for 30-plus home runs. Those days are long gone, as he’s hit just 21 and 22 in the last two years while his ISO has fallen to .166 and .151. At the same time, he has watched his HR:FB ratio drop while his infield-flyball rate has risen, indicating consistently poorer contact. This brings us to his plate discipline, which has gone from near-elite to merely average. Last season, for example, he walked just 7.6 percent of the time while carrying a strikeout percentage of 19.7 percent. The main culprit has been an increased swing rate since his prime, particularly on pitches out of the zone. As the 11th third baseman coming off the board at NFBC drafts, the cost isn’t massive, but it also isn’t ideal. Preferably, you can grab one of the 10 third basemen in front of him. If not, you will be better off using your mid-round pick on a different position and either taking someone like Mike Moustakas or tossing a late-round flier on someone like Brett Lawrie, David Wright, or Nick Castellanos. —Matt Collins


Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 29, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Second Base

4

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to let someone else draft or buy these players in your leagues this spring.

In the seminal Simpsons episode “Homer vs. Dignity” (season 12, episode 5), Marge Simpson advises us to “Avoid The Noid. He ruins pizzas.” Here are six second basemen our staff recommends you avoid in your upcoming drafts or auctions.

Logan Forsythe, Rays
A funny thing has happened in the last few years. Second base, traditionally a bastion of paucity (that works right? No? Let me have this), has actually accrued some depth. Enough for our esteemed leader to rank a guy like Dustin Pedroia 15th in his dynasty rankings. That being the case, I come to you with the advice to avoid Logan Forsythe, for a couple reasons.


The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 22, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: First Base

18

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to let someone else draft or buy these players in your leagues this spring.

Last week, we kicked off our Players to Target/Avoid series with a look at fantasy backstops. This week, we march on by taking a deep dive on first basemen who could either make or break your auctions and drafts. Today: six hitters who members of our staff think could be overvalued this year, relative where they will be selected in drafts later this spring.

Justin Bour, Marlins
Beware of overemphasizing September stats. This is particularly true where non-contenders are concerned, as a number of teams are often running for the bus (if you’ll pardon an old cliché). After a dismal stretch from June through August where Bour slashed 225/301/394, it seemed that he had turned a corner in September, mashing nine home runs in 120 plate appearances and appearing that he “figured it out.” In reality, Bour had the benefit of feasting off of a number of weak Braves and Phillies pitching, hitting some of those home runs off of the likes of Ryan Kelly, Ryan Weber, David Buchanan, and Daniel Winkler. Granted, Bour does get the advantage of an imbalanced, NL East schedule again in 2016, but given a full year of Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Aaron Nola, that isn’t necessarily a blessing. I have a healthy skepticism when it comes to late bloomers, and while Bour will probably survive in the Marlins lineup, it is better to bet conservatively than to simply extrapolate last year’s numbers expecting a repeat performance. There is also the very real danger that pitchers continue to pound him with offspeed stuff until he shows he can either hit breaking balls or lay off of them entirely. Bour’s 38 percent swing-and-miss rate makes the formula for opposing pitchers fairly evident in the early going next year. —Mike Gianella


The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 15, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Catchers

6

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to let someone else draft or buy these players in your leagues this spring.

Nick Hundley, Rockies
How does a catcher entering his age-31 season move from 37th among catchers in 2014 to seventh at the position in 2015, despite only receiving 156 more plate appearances? Signing a free agent deal to play half of your games in Coors Field is a good place to start. Hitting 10 home runs and stealing five bases made Hundley quite valuable in 2015, no question about it, but I have serious doubts about what, if anything, he’ll be able to replicate in 2016. Hundley’s 10 taters were the second most of his eight-year career, despite a four percentage point drop in his hard-contact percentage and a drop of over five percentage points in his flyball rate. Hundley’s five steals were more than he swiped in the five seasons prior combined, and his .807 OPS was the first time that he registered an OPS of above .700 since 2011. His career-high .301 AVG in 2015 was a 58-point improvement over 2014, a number likely buoyed by his .356 BABIP.

Like countless examples of Rockies hitters past and present, Hundley hit much, much better at home (.355/.393/563) compared away from Coors (.237/.275/.355), and 2016 is the last season that the Rockies have Hundley under contract. Prospect Tom Murphy hit 23 home runs between the high-minors and majors last season and appears ready for an extended run of regular at-bats, which could earn Hundley a ticket out of town before the trade deadline, putting into question not only how many plate appearances that Hundley will receive above the 389 that he received in 2015, but how many of those will actually come at Coors. Hundley is currently being drafted in the roughly the same spot as Derek Norris, and just behind Yasmani Grandal, which is pure insanity to me. —J.J. Jansons


The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 6, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Relief Pitchers

6

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to let someone else pick up these projected closers in your drafts and auctions this spring.

Previous articles in this series:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 27, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Starting Pitchers

17

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to let someone else draft or buy these arms in your leagues this spring.

Previous articles in this series:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 13, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Outfielders

19

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to let someone else draft or buy these players in your leagues this year.

Previous articles in this series:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

You might want to let someone else draft or buy these players in your leagues this spring.

Previous articles in this series:

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Third Basemen

16

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to let someone else pick these players in your drafts and auctions this spring.

Previous articles in this series:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 23, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Second Basemen

6

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to veer away from these keystoners in your drafts and auctions this spring.

Previous articles in this series:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 16, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: First Base

1

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to stay away from these first sackers in your drafts and auctions this spring.

Previous articles in this series:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 9, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Catchers

8

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to let someone else acquire these backstops in your drafts and auctions this spring.

We’re changing things up a bit this year when it comes to our Players to Target and Players to Avoid fantasy series.

Last year, we had every member of the BP fantasy staff provide you with quick-hit blurbs for every target and every avoid piece. The problem is, this led to so many players being covered that we ended up being duplicative, supporting some guys we didn't really love or knocking down some obvious candidates. It got so bad that Mauricio Rubio told fantasy players not to target Derek Jeter, leading to one of the greatest BP comments of all time.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Column Entries No More Column Entries