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04-21

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26

Fantasy Freestyle: Why 70/30?
by
Mike Gianella

04-17

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Recovering Prospects
by
Craig Goldstein

04-16

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Fighting Early-Season Confirmation Bias
by
Jeff Quinton

04-14

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Auction Leagues and Salary/Contract Dynamics
by
Mike Gianella

04-09

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Buying Low, Letting Go, and the Disposition Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

04-09

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Small-Sample Numbers That Matter
by
Craig Goldstein

04-07

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22

Fantasy Freestyle: Home Cooking
by
Mike Gianella

04-02

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14

Fantasy Freestyle: Strategic Agility on Auction Day
by
Jeff Quinton

04-02

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11

Fantasy Freestyle: Now is the Season of My Discontent
by
Mike Gianella

03-27

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Three Murky Closer Situations
by
Mauricio Rubio

03-26

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15

Fantasy Freestyle: My Favorite Endgame Targets
by
Bret Sayre

03-24

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Is it Really All Currency?
by
Jeff Quinton

03-24

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Early-Season Strategic Decisions
by
Wilson Karaman

03-24

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22

Fantasy Freestyle: Two Deep-League Lessons From the Preseason
by
Ben Carsley

03-20

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11

Fantasy Freestyle: Beating the Success Trap
by
Jeff Quinton

03-19

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9

Fantasy Freestyle: Picking Fifth
by
Mauricio Rubio

03-18

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23

Fantasy Freestyle: The PFM, My Bid Limits, and You
by
Mike Gianella

03-13

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: Raise Decisions and the Fantasy Win Curve
by
Jeff Quinton

03-11

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13

Fantasy Freestyle: Fantasy Platoon Options
by
Bret Sayre

03-10

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting Bid Limits for Different League Sizes
by
Mike Gianella

03-07

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21

Fantasy Freestyle: Projecting the Top 15
by
Paul Sporer and BP Fantasy Staff

03-06

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11

Fantasy Freestyle: Prospect Theory on Draft Day
by
Jeff Quinton

02-27

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: The Rising Cost of Pitching
by
Mike Gianella

02-17

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: BP's Mixed LABR Draft
by
Bret Sayre

01-09

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: A First-Round Starting Pitcher? Maybe
by
Paul Sporer

01-09

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44

Fantasy Freestyle: The Top 50 2013 Signees for Dynasty Drafts
by
Bret Sayre

01-06

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: What is a Minor League Pick Worth?
by
Mike Gianella

12-27

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16

Fantasy Freestyle: A Review of Larry Schechter's Winning Fantasy Baseball
by
Mike Gianella

12-20

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15

Fantasy Freestyle: Top 2014 Pitching Risers
by
Paul Sporer

12-19

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: Going Beyond 5x5
by
Mike Gianella

12-17

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Putting Stock in the Best Hitters of the Second Half
by
Bret Sayre

12-13

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Seven Hitting Prospects on the Rise
by
Ben Carsley

12-12

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9

Fantasy Freestyle: Mixed-League Pitcher Valuation
by
Mike Gianella

12-10

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14

Fantasy Freestyle: Mixed-League Hitter Valuation
by
Mike Gianella

11-27

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Looking for 2014 Surprises
by
Paul Sporer

11-21

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: AFL First Pitch Forums Draft, Part Two
by
Paul Sporer

11-21

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15

Fantasy Freestyle: The Fantasy Fallout of the Fielder-Kinsler Swap
by
Bret Sayre

11-15

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11

Fantasy Freestyle: AFL First Pitch Forums Draft
by
Paul Sporer

10-31

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Scary Shifts in First Base Positional Eligibility
by
Ben Carsley

10-29

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Sifting Through Second-Half FIPs
by
Bret Sayre

10-29

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Matt Adams: First Base Fix
by
Craig Goldstein

10-24

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10

Fantasy Freestyle: Ten Could-Be Fantasy Aces for 2014
by
Bret Sayre

10-22

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Brandon Phillips' Gradually Sudden Decline
by
Craig Goldstein

10-21

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Revisiting BABIP for Fantasy
by
Mike Gianella

10-18

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: The 2014 First Round: A Look Ahead, Part Three
by
Paul Sporer

10-17

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Looking Back: Endgame Sleepers
by
Bret Sayre

10-15

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Carpenter's Tools
by
Craig Goldstein

10-10

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7

Fantasy Freestyle: Looking Back: 10 Bold Predictions
by
Bret Sayre

10-08

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Lake Effect
by
Craig Goldstein

10-07

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Searching for Strikeouts: Postseason Rookie Starters
by
Ben Carsley

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April 21, 2014 7:07 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Why 70/30?

26

Mike Gianella

Mike examines the reasoning behind the popular auction spending split.

This winter, there was a great discussion on Twitter with Peter Kreutzer (a.k.a Rotoman) and Chris Liss of Rotowire about why fantasy baseball teams in auction formats spend about 70 percent of their money on hitting and 30 percent on pitching (more or less). We are beyond auction season now, but this is such a terrific debate (and such an important concept to auction owners) that it is worth revisiting now.

Kreutzer is correct that we spend more for hitters in the aggregate than we do for pitchers because there is always more value to be had in the free agent pitching pool than there is in the free agent hitting pool. A simpler way of putting this is that in a 12-team format you’re far more likely to buy a pitcher who will not be as good as one of the actual top 108 pitchers as you are to buy a hitter who will not be as good as one of the actual top 168 hitters. I don’t agree with Kreutzer’s assumptions on the valuations, but that’s not especially germane to this particular discussion. He’s right where it counts, and this is why most experts use something along the lines of 65/35, 70/30, or something in between for dollar allocation.

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April 17, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Recovering Prospects

8

Craig Goldstein

These promising minor leaguers saw their stocks tumble in 2013 but have started 2014 on a high note.

This is the time of year when every article begins with the caveat that stats aren’t worth much right now, but, hey, here are some stats. Well, this is like that except it’s fully acknowledging that the stats aren’t worth anything. All they’re here for is to key in on some players who were highly thought of at one point who struggled through a rough 2013 and have come out of the gates quickly. This isn’t to impart meaning to those good starts, but just identify them as prospects to monitor as the season progresses:

Trevor Story - SS - Colorado Rockies

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April 16, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Fighting Early-Season Confirmation Bias

4

Jeff Quinton

Advice to help you avoid being steered off course by April results.

The 2014 season is not even 20 games old, but we are already at the height of confirmation bias season. After spending the offseason (or some portion of the offseason) analyzing players for the upcoming season, and after acting on that research and analysis in offseason trades and in our drafts and auctions, we have a strong desire to see a return on the time and effort invested, to see our decisions pan out.

Obviously, it is too early in the season for there to be much, if any, information to actually confirm or disconfirm our assumptions. There really is no short-term risk in seeking this confirmation bias; rather, the danger lies in how seeking confirming information will impact our future decisions. If we continue to ignore information that disconfirms our beliefs (player A is bad because of X), while seeking out information that confirms our beliefs (player X is good because of Y), we will tend to overvalue our players. The more we overvalue our players, the less we will look for opportunities to improve our team and the greater the chances of us passing up or missing opportunities to improve our team. By knowing how we allow ourselves to fall victim to confirmation bias (traps) and with a few tips on how to fight those instincts (solutions), we can free ourselves, at least a little bit, from the downsides of confirmation bias.

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April 14, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Auction Leagues and Salary/Contract Dynamics

2

Mike Gianella

Building for next year based on your league's rules.

If you play in a keeper league, one of the most frustrating things about the start of the regular season is that there isn’t a lot of advice out there for you. Nearly all of the fantasy content generated during the regular season is geared toward the here and now. Some advice might look ahead to later in the current season, but little if any advice looks beyond this season.

In a keeper league, you should have a strong foundation not only of this year’s values but of future valuation. This applies not only if you have packed it in and are playing for 2015 but if you are playing for this year as well. Owners playing for this year probably have an even more difficult job than owners who have packed it in, as they have to figure out the best way to sell their next year assets to non-contenders in an effort to win this year.

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April 9, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Buying Low, Letting Go, and the Disposition Effect

8

Jeff Quinton

A way to determine the optimal time to acquire underperforming players and the right time to jump ship.

“There is no such thing as buying low” has become popular advice among the fantasy baseball community. Does the classic buy-low opportunity, in which an underperforming player gets moved for $0.50 on the dollar, really exist? Rarely. However, there are still opportunities to acquire players below their actual or true value. The disposition effect is a phenomenon of behavioral finance that shows the tendency of investors to keep their losers too long and sell their winners too quickly. In other words, when people invest in a stock that underperforms, the following story often plays out: They hold on to the stock as it continues to underperform and then either sell the stock as soon as they can make the smallest of gains or continue to hold on to the loser while missing out on more profitable investments elsewhere.

The disposition effect as it relates to fantasy baseball is thus refusing to sell low on an underperforming player and either (1) selling him as soon as you can cash him in for too small a profit or (2) continuing to hold on to the player instead of picking up or trading for better players.

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April 9, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Small-Sample Numbers That Matter

5

Craig Goldstein

Despite what everyone says, some early performances do make a difference.

Pretty much every article you’ve read between Opening Day and today has started with the caveat that there’s no point in drawing meaning from the statistics that are about to be presented, but then going ahead and presenting them anyway. In the end, the articles either draw a meaningless conclusion (they warned you at the beginning though) or waffle on what, if anything, any of their contents mean (nothing, they told you up top).

While I can only concur that the statistics that have been accrued since opening day (Salvador Perez has a 25 percent walk rate in six games, despite a career 4.5 percent walk rate) are at this point meaningless in a data sense, they are meaningful in that they matter to managers. I’m not going to draw any conclusions about a player’s evolving skillset or change in approach, so much as I am highlighting players who have either bought themselves or potentially cost themselves some rope, in the eyes of their manager. This has a very tangible effect in the fantasy world, especially in deeper leagues, where players who merely rack up at-bats are worth something.

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April 7, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Home Cooking

22

Mike Gianella

Mike analyzes the results of his recent home keeper-league auction.

As much as I enjoy the intensity of my expert league, I also enjoy the more relaxing pace of my home league auctions. They also offer a good opportunity for keeper league analysis that the non-keeper expert leagues do not. This past weekend, I participated in an AL-only home league auction. This league is as old school as you are going to get, with the old 4x4 rules still in effect (no runs or strikeouts).

I won this league last year, so as a result, I had a very limited number of freezes coming in on Saturday.

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April 2, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Strategic Agility on Auction Day

14

Jeff Quinton

With drafts and auctions in the rearview mirror, Jeff looks back on his and underscores the importance of making adjustments.

By the time this article is up, there will be very few drafts and auctions remaining for the 2014 season. With the successes and failures of this draft and auction season still fresh in our minds, right now is the best time to analyze what went right and what went wrong. It is definitely better than doing so 11 months from now, when we are more likely to be misled by results (positive and negative) as opposed to focusing on process. So let’s dig in.

I have typed a lot of words about draft and auction preparation and strategy this offseason. I am far from being alone on the internet as someone who has done so. Preparation and strategy are great, but they can be made irrelevant if the strategy is not executed on draft or auction day. “Executing strategy” is a nice thing to talk about, but it is something that is not easily done. More importantly, executing your strategy is not always the best way to maximize your auction yield. Wait what? I have been preaching strategy and process all off season and now I say it is not to follow them? What kind on monster am I? I am not saying that strategy is unimportant, but I am saying that depending on the situation, a tweak or change to your strategy mid-auction or mid-draft can maximize your yield.

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April 2, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Now is the Season of My Discontent

11

Mike Gianella

Mike hates his team.

The day is done. The last player has been taken on reserve, the teams have been entered into the league’s stat service website, and the season is about the get underway. Everyone is excited for the potential his roster contains, the upside that his last one-dollar hitter or 23rd-round pick provides, and the idea that this is the year that he will take home the title.

Not me. I stare bleakly into nothingness (or—in this case—the now partially stocked bar in my brother-in-law’s basement). I’m afraid to look down at the spreadsheet I was using to track my auction, worried to see what four months of preparation and planning have wrought, afraid to face the inevitable, crushing realization that I’m going to have to face sooner rather than than later.

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March 27, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Three Murky Closer Situations

6

Mauricio Rubio

A rundown of the ninth-inning candidates in Houston, Cincinnati, and Cleveland.

Closers are the most fungible commodity in fantasy baseball. Predicting saves is a quixotic quest that frequently ends in heartbreak and confusion.

You don’t need to search long to find examples of how volatile the saves market can be. Kevin Gregg was a discarded reliever when the Cubs reached out for his services in the ultimate act of desperation. Carlos Marmol had imploded and their in house options were either hurt or ineffective. Gregg, who was unable to survive spring training with the Dodgers, ended up accruing 33 saves before being released in a much-publicized spat with management.

So if you have Chapman on the DL or you were just caught off guard ahead of a massive closer run and are in need of saves don’t fret. I’m here for you, friends.

Let’s take a look at three situations in which a closer could emerge from the shadows

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March 26, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: My Favorite Endgame Targets

15

Bret Sayre

As the offseason winds down, Bret shares some of his late-draft sleepers for various league sizes and formats.

With spring training reaching peak twilight and the biggest drafting weekend of the year approaching, it’s time for my final marker post column of the preseason.

We’ve been doing rankings and analysis here for the last three months and hopefully they’ve been helpful to you as you sort through all of the information that lead to your most important draft decisions. And to top it off, as we get to the endgame of draft season, it seems only natural to focus on the endgame of drafts. It’s the most interesting, and often most important segment of your draft. Sure, if you miss on your first round pick or get $5 in value from your $25 player, you’re in a hole that can be very difficult to climb out of. As I’ve said many times, closing out your draft strong is a must if you want to win your league.

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March 24, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Two Deep-League Lessons From the Preseason

22

Ben Carsley

With several deep-league drafts under his belt, Ben shares a couple of the things he's learned so far this spring.

Ah, deep leagues. They test your knowledge and patience, your ability to follow a draft strategy and your sanity, as injuries always tend to ebb away at the weakest spot of your rosters. As 18- and 20-team leagues continue to become more popular, it's worth looking at some unique strategies that don't apply to shallower leagues, but can give you a decided advantage when you're in a league that goes 500-800 players deep.

I'm lucky/stupid enough to participate in several uber-deep leagues of both the redraft and keeper variety, and the more I play in said leagues, the more I grow to appreciate them over their shallower counterparts. The deeper the rosters go the more knowledge is required to succeed and the more victory has to do with skill and not luck.

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