CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

The First-ever Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide - now just $6.89 at Amazon ( bbp.cx/fg )

Fantasy Freestyle 

Search Fantasy Freestyle

All Blogs

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

05-24

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: The Myths of Minor-League Strikeouts
by
Bret Sayre

05-22

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: Cool Slider, Bro
by
Jason Collette

05-22

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Travis Wood and the Winds of Wrigley
by
Andrew Koo

05-20

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: Digging Deeper Than Deep
by
Mike Gianella

05-17

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Loosening the Trade Lines
by
Paul Singman

05-15

comment icon

5

Fantasy Freestyle: An Out-of-Tune Vogelsong
by
Jason Collette

05-13

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Dumping Targets, a Look Back
by
Mike Gianella

05-10

comment icon

7

Fantasy Freestyle: Four Hot Hitters
by
Josh Shepardson

05-08

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: Ask the Experts
by
Mike Gianella

05-08

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Fernando Rodney: Tapped Out?
by
Jason Collette

05-07

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Beware of the Tribe
by
Paul Sporer

05-03

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Lineup Movers
by
Paul Singman

05-02

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Ten Bold Predictions Based on April’s Small Samples
by
Bret Sayre

05-01

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: A Fast Start for Slowey
by
Paul Sporer

04-30

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: Nate McLouth's Renaissance
by
Jason Collette

04-29

comment icon

9

Fantasy Freestyle: The Art of Trading
by
Mike Gianella

04-25

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Move Along, Nothing to See Here (Probably)
by
Mike Gianella

04-24

comment icon

7

Fantasy Freestyle: Moar Payshints
by
Paul Sporer

04-23

comment icon

9

Fantasy Freestyle: Springing Into Action
by
Jason Collette

04-22

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: The Men in the Middle
by
Mike Gianella

04-18

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Early Lineup Movers
by
Paul Singman

04-17

comment icon

7

Fantasy Freestyle: Big Spending in FAAB Leagues
by
Mike Gianella

04-17

comment icon

17

Fantasy Freestyle: Beware of Young Catchers
by
Paul Sporer

04-16

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Believing in Buchholz
by
Jason Collette

04-15

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: Searching for Value in Contract Clauses
by
Mike Gianella

04-11

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Should We Start Pitchers Making Their Major-League Debuts?
by
Bret Sayre

04-10

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: My American League Portfolio
by
Paul Sporer

04-09

comment icon

23

Fantasy Freestyle: Home-Style Auctioning
by
Mike Gianella

04-09

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: High-Stakes League Free Agent Rundown
by
Jason Collette

04-05

comment icon

14

Fantasy Freestyle: Free Agent Watch
by
Mike Gianella

04-04

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Staying Ahead of the Curve With Pitchers
by
Bret Sayre

04-03

comment icon

9

Fantasy Freestyle: Preaching Patience With April Struggles
by
Paul Sporer

04-02

comment icon

10

Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Bold Fantasy Predictions for 2013
by
Paul Singman

04-02

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: As Good as They Once Were?
by
Jason Collette

04-01

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: The Art of the Long-Term Contract
by
Mike Gianella

04-01

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: Legitimate Breakouts and Early-Season Flukes
by
Josh Shepardson

03-29

comment icon

14

Fantasy Freestyle: NL Tout Wars Auction Review
by
Mike Gianella

03-28

comment icon

10

Fantasy Freestyle: Twenty Endgame Targets in Various Formats
by
Bret Sayre

03-27

comment icon

9

Fantasy Freestyle: Use Your Disabled List
by
Josh Shepardson

03-27

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: Expert-League Auction Comparison
by
Jason Collette

03-22

comment icon

17

Fantasy Freestyle: ROI: Keeper League Edition
by
Mike Gianella

03-20

comment icon

22

Fantasy Freestyle: Saves Are Everywhere
by
Jason Collette

03-15

comment icon

17

Fantasy Freestyle: 4x4 Versus 5x5
by
Mike Gianella

03-14

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: 11 Things to Know/Have at Your Auction
by
Bret Sayre

03-08

comment icon

18

Fantasy Freestyle: What Your Auction Dollar Gets You
by
Mike Gianella

03-06

comment icon

17

Fantasy Freestyle: Expert-League Auction Values Breakdown
by
Jason Collette and Paul Singman

03-01

comment icon

11

Fantasy Freestyle: CBS AL-Only Expert Auction Results
by
Mike Gianella

02-22

comment icon

17

Fantasy Freestyle: The Merits of Category Dumping
by
Mike Gianella

02-21

comment icon

19

Fantasy Freestyle: Getting the Platoon Advantage
by
Bret Sayre

02-15

comment icon

18

Fantasy Freestyle: Mike Trout and Regression Obsession
by
Mike Gianella

Go to Archives...

<< Previous Column Entries No More Column Entries

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 24, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: The Myths of Minor-League Strikeouts

0

Bret Sayre

Bret explains why high minor-league strikeout rates don't always portend low batting averages when a player reaches the majors.

It gets talked about a lot; we are living through a golden age of strikeouts in baseball. And there are plenty of potential reasons for this, which are thrown out during the discussion. Some say that it’s just a talent surge on the pitching side of the equation that will correct itself during the next cycle. Some say it’s an overall lack of a two-strike mentality among hitters in the game today. Some say the sabermetric movement has reduced the fear and shame associated with striking out. Some say it’s sunscreen.

Regardless of what the true reasoning is (though it’s likely a combination of all of the above and more), we are where we are at the major-league level. But what does that mean for minor-league strikeout rates? Are contact rates in the minors decreasing at the same level that we see across the highest level of the game? The answer is that it depends how advanced the league is.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 22, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Cool Slider, Bro

1

Jason Collette

Indians righty Justin Masterson has improved considerably against left-handed hitters this season, and the strides he has made with his slider are at the root of his success.

Nick Swisher is one of my favorite players in baseball to watch play the game because I appreciate how he works a count and genuinely seems to enjoy playing the game. My favorite part about his game actually comes off the field, because he is comedic gold when you get him talking on a topic he is excited about. Take his recent assessment of teammate Justin Masterson.

Swisher was asked by Bud Shaw of the Cleveland Plain Dealer to describe teammate Justin Masterson in three words, and in the most Swisher response ever, he replied, “Power sinker, bro.” Swisher expanded his bro-view of the hurler by adding, “What’s really impressive is the number of strikeouts he’s had. Look at any great team and it starts with that number-one guy.”

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 22, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Travis Wood and the Winds of Wrigley

3

Andrew Koo

Why it pays to look at the weather forecast before starting a flyball pitcher at Wrigley Field.

One of the first axioms I learned when I wandered into the world of sports betting was to heed Wrigley Field’s winds. Wrigley’s proximity to Lake Michigan gave it a reputation for dramatically affecting fly balls, which would inflate or deflate the game over/under on runs. If the wind was blowing out, fly balls were expected to sail out as home runs, and the total would be unusually high. A low total typically meant that winds were blowing toward home plate, suppressing fly balls.

Vegas already knew this, which unfortunately added an additional dimension to handicapping Cubs home games. Amazingly though, this advice was extremely exploitable in fantasy baseball. An “@ChC” note next to my pitcher meant a trip to Baseball Weather Analyzer or Daily Baseball Data (two sweet resources) to examine Wrigley Field’s conditions that day. Flyball pitchers sat on blow-out days and started on blow-in days.

Chris Constancio of The Hardball Times investigated the effect of winds on HR/FB rates six years ago, and he observed statistically significant results in Chicago parks. I replicated his method on data from 2007 to the present and found that the Wrigley wind effect is stronger than ever. Over 508 games, here’s how pitchers performed in HR/FB rate, ERA, and slugging percentage allowed, split by Retrosheet’s wind field:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 20, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Digging Deeper Than Deep

8

Mike Gianella

If the players on Bret Sayre's weekly Stash List are already owned in your league, don't worry: Mike has advice on how to pick fantasy diamonds out of the minor-league rough.

Every week, Baseball Prospectus’ own Bret Sayre puts together The Stash List. This list is an invaluable resource. I often use it not only to ascertain who might be close to making an impact in my deep leagues but also to get a feel for what the market value might be for a player. In leagues where I can bid on minor leaguers, this gives me a feel for when I might need to bid; in leagues where I can’t bid on minor leaguers, this tells me what I might need to bid.

However, in some of the deeper leagues I play in, Bret’s list isn’t of much use. Two of the expert leagues I’m in allow owners to stash minor leaguers, and the reserve lists are deep enough that even in non-keeper formats the top prospects that might make it up in 2013 are long gone. Speculation also runs rampant in these types of cutthroat leagues. If you think you’re going to be the lucky soul that snags Christian Yelich a week before his call-up, forget about it. Yelich is already owned in Tout Wars and in most deep leagues with any appreciable reserve depth.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 17, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Loosening the Trade Lines

6

Paul Singman

Paul offers a few helpful tips for building your confidence when it comes to trading in your fantasy leagues.

If you’re anything like me, trading can sometimes be a scary proposition, especially if your team is shaping up to be a contender. Nothing is worse than an ill-advised trade initiating a team’s downward spiral when maintaining the status quo of players would have been the better option.

As unpleasant as the outcome of a trade can be, equally as displeasing is the feeling of discomfort during negotiations.  I’m sure you’ve felt before the pressure to respond decisively to an offer and maybe even formulate a logical counter of your own when really you just want to avoid making any drastic decisions.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 15, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: An Out-of-Tune Vogelsong

5

Jason Collette

Is Ryan Vogelsong a buy-low target in fantasy leagues? Jason explains why he might be worth a look.

The Giants saw enough from Ryan Vogelsong in his first season back from oblivion that they gave him a new contract that could keep him in San Francisco through the 2014 season. In 2012, Vogelsong picked up right where he left off in 2011, but that success story has not continued thus far in 2013.

To date, opponents have hit .323 against him with a 939 OPS and a .370 batting average on balls in play. Those numbers are a dramatic spike from the past two seasons, when batters hit .243 against him with just a 680 OPS and a .286 BABIP.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 13, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Dumping Targets, a Look Back

2

Mike Gianella

Mike uses evidence from 2008 top-prospect lists to evaluate the merits of targeting minor leaguers in "dump" trades.

Most fantasy web sites and other resources do little if any analysis on playing for next year, or what is known less elegantly as “dumping.” Some analysts refuse to even acknowledge that it is part of the game and advise that it is always best to trade with this year in mind and worry about future consequences next year.

In reality, if you’re in a keeper league, you will probably have to give up and play for next year sooner or later. If other teams are building rosters for 2014 around cheap players such as Bryce Harper, Matt Harvey, and Shelby Miller, and you are sitting back while your team languishes in seventh place with little hope of winning, you are not doing yourself any favors.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 10, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Four Hot Hitters

7

Josh Shepardson

Josh looks at a few players whose bats have sizzled out of the gate and explains whether you should sell high or look to acquire them.

Selling high on fast starters is largely a myth these days. There is simply too much information available for fantasy gamers. Not all fast starts are created equal, though, and sometimes it pays to inquire on the availability of some of these players. Occasionally, owners will feel like they are selling at peak value, and now is the time to make a deal with them. In other cases, those owners are selling a player at peak value, and it is best to avoid acquiring him now. The key is determining which hot players are likely to sustain their high level of success.

There were quite a few players for me to pick from, and I opted to eliminate superstars from the discussion. Superstars do great things, and telling you that Miguel Cabrera will continue to play well and is worth acquiring isn't terribly useful. With that in mind, I selected four hitters that had an ADP outside the top 100 at the end of March for NFBC leagues.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 8, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Ask the Experts

8

Mike Gianella

Mike explains how to utilize experts' advice to become the best fantasy player you can be.

In Kurt Vonnegut’s Hocus Pocus, Eugene Debs Hartke spends the latter half of the novel teaching inmates in a prison in upstate New York. While he was able to teach some of his students successfully, some were merely interested in using Hartke as a walking encyclopedia.

(some of the inmates) used me as an ambulatory Guinness Book of World Records, asking me who the oldest person in the world was, the richest one, the woman who had had the most babies, and so on.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 8, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Fernando Rodney: Tapped Out?

2

Jason Collette

The Rays closer is off to a rocky start, but could a mechanical fix bring back his dominant 2012 form?

This year’s player profile for Fernando Rodney closed with this note: “The Rays' 2013 option on Rodney pays him $2.5 million. If he's only half as good as he was last year, he'll still be a bargain.”

So far, the Rays, their fans (save your tired jokes), and fantasy owners wish he was even a fourth as good as he was last year. The Archer is struggling to hit his targets in 2013.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 7, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Beware of the Tribe

4

Paul Sporer

Given the Indians' early-season propensity to tattoo starters, fantasy owners should be wary of using pitchers that are facing them.

With the completion of Monday’s slate of games, we are officially one-sixth of the way through the season, as every team has played at least 28 games, or 17 percent of its allotted 162. Exactly half of the league has actually hit the one-fifth mark, having played 20 percent of its games, but the Twins and Royals finished off the first sixth of their seasons on Monday. We have also turned the calendar on the season’s first month, and the accumulation of data from that month is giving us some useful information.

For example, did you know that the Oakland Athletics lead all of baseball with 174 runs? They have 10 more runs than the Detroit Tigers and Colorado Rockies, who sit tied for second with 164 (because 174-10 = 164!). The A’s also have three more games played than the Tigers and two more than the Rockies. That doesn’t diminish their runs-scored achievement, but it does send them to the bottom of that trio when you look at runs per game: The Tigers have 5.47, the Rockies 5.29, and the A’s 5.27. Sitting eighth in total runs scored are the Cleveland Indians.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up for Fantasy today!

May 3, 2013 10:17 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Lineup Movers

2

Paul Singman

The fantasy implications of these manager decisions.

Evaluating players based on lineup position is a tricky science. On one hand, it can have a dramatic impact on a player’s value. Take a guy batting eighth in an NL lineup, move him second, and it can be as much as a $5 boost. On the other hand, batting lineups are fickle constructs, so sometimes it is best not to put too much stock in where a player is hitting at the moment and focus on skills instead.

Lineup position also has an obvious compounding effect—that is, players who are already hitting well tend to be the ones who benefit from moving up in the order, and vice versa. Still, whether through injury or merit, when a player has moved into a more (or less) favorable hitting position, it’s worth reviewing who has seen their value affected thus far in 2013. 

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Column Entries No More Column Entries