Mike makes some tweaks based on expert-league bids entering the final weekend of the offseason.
Last weekend, Tout Wars held their AL, NL, and mixed-league auctions. This was the final series of expert league auctions this year, and offered yet another set of price points to contemplate before we all head off to our own home league auctions this coming weekend. Listed below are the significant adjustments I made based on the prices in the Tout Wars auctions in the AL and NL-only formats.
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Notes on the updated price tags as Mike prepares for Tout Wars.
It’s auction season, and tomorrow morning I’ll be competing against the some of the best and brightest in NL Tout Wars. Here are this week’s significant movers and shakers; next week I will make adjustments based on news, but also on auctions trends and spending in all three Tout Wars formats.
In advance of his foray into Tout Wars, Mike explains how he'd adjust his values for OBP leagues and unveils this week's update.
In eight days, I’ll be participating in my fifth Tout Wars expert league auction (on the National League side of the fence). However, this will be the first year we will be using on-base percentage—instead of batting average—as a category.
The attached spreadsheet offers my adjusted bid values for on base percentage leagues. More than the changes, what will probably jump out to readers is how few players’ values changed in both leagues. Forty-five NL hitters saw a change in value, while 38 AL hitters were moved up or down. Given that 125 AL hitters and 118 NL hitters saw a value change of $1 or more in 2013, shouldn’t there be more fluctuation in my bid limits for OBP?
Updated bid prices based on recent developments, and answers to some frequently asked questions.
Last week, I unveiled my Rotisserie-style, 5x5 bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues (all 12 teams) for 2014 at Baseball Prospectus. I also presented some very rudimentary guidelines for how to use these bids. While these guidelines are helpful, there are always some frequently asked questions that come up every year that I would be remiss if I didn’t address.
Why use bid limits at all?
There are a few schools of thought that make a strong case against using bid limits. Earlier this week at KFFL, Lawr Michaels of Mastersball wrote a terrific piece arguing against using bid limits at all. A few years ago, Chris Liss of Rotowire wrote an equally terrific piece arguing against both bid limits and projections. This is the part of the program where you might expect me to vigorously pound my chest and passionately argue against Michaels and Liss and conclusively prove that they are idiots.
This year's initial values for mixed and league-specific 5x5 formats, plus answers to some frequently asked questions.
Welcome to the first installment of Baseball Prospectus’ 2014 bid prices for “standard” Rotisserie-style formats.
In the tables below, you will find my recommended bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues. For all three formats, the presumed settings are 12 teams, $260 budgets, 14 hitters, and nine pitchers. The bids are not predictions of what these players will do, but rather suggested prices. While most of what I expect these players to do is based on projected statistics and values, other factors play a role in the bid prices. These factors include:
Mike adjusts his bid limits based on the latest injury news and the players' Tout Wars price tags.
Between some of my reactions to the prices at Tout Wars and a long list of injury news, it was an incredibly busy week for pricing updates. Below is a list of the most significant changes made this week.
A slew of injury updates and a few uncertain closer scenarios take center stage in the latest auction values update.
Next weekend, Jason Collette, Paul Singman, and I will be representing Baseball Prospectus in Tout Wars. Jason will be in the AL-only pool, Paul will handle the mixed format, and I will tackle the NL-only side. Just like with LABR, there will be plenty of updates based on how the experts profess their opinions with their bid prices.
For now, let’s get right into this week’s updates...
Matt Kemp moves up and fellow Dodger Carl Crawford moves down, among many other shifts in this week's update.
Last Monday, I examined how the bidding in the AL-only LABR auction impacted some of my bids. This week, it’s the National League’s turn (although I do have a handful of notes about the American League based on injury news).
Mike adjusts his bid limits based on two expert auctions and the latest news from around the league.
This is the third installment of Baseball Prospectus’s 2013 5x5 bid limits for 12-team National League, American League, and mixed league Rotisserie-style formats. While the first two installments were based mostly, if not entirely, on my own opinions and predilections, this installment is influenced by a second opinion: expert auction prices.
The League of Alternate Baseball Reality (or LABR, as it’s more commonly known) expert auctions took place over the weekend in Phoenix, Arizona. (The CBS Analyst League auctions took place were held online last Tuesday and Thursday.) LABR is the more renowned league, but both auctions give me my first opportunity to see how “realistic” my prices are compared to the market.
Reader comments and a spring training injury influenced this week's biggest adjustments.
Last week, I rolled out my AL-only, NL-only, and mixed league bid prices for 12-team formats. In that installment, I explained how I constructed the bids. I thought that this week I’d explain the usefulness of bid limits. Bid limits are designed to be guidelines to provide a valid stopping point on every single player in your auction. However, the goal of bid limits shouldn’t be to create a fixed price that you robotically aim to pay for every player. In fact, your goal should be to pay slightly less than the recommended bid limit for as many players as you possibly can. If you pay par price for every player at your auction, you will buy a middle-of-the-pack team and finish seventh.
This does not mean, however, that you should never pay the par price or even slightly more than that ceiling. Circumstances change at every auction. If you really need a closer, you might decide to be aggressive on Craig Kimbrel and let everyone else fight it out for J.J. Putz. During the auction, you might decide that Hanley Ramirez is going to turn back to clock to 2009 and, instead of stopping at $30, push him to $32.
Mike unveils his complete guide to Rotisserie-style auctions for a variety of leagues, to be updated throughout February and March.
Welcome to the first installment of Baseball Prospectus’ 2013 bid prices for “standard” Rotisserie-style formats.
In the tables below, you will find my recommended bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues. For all three formats, the presumed settings are 12 teams, $260 budgets, 14 hitters, and nine pitchers. The bids for the top 168 hitters and 108 pitchers in each player pool add up to $3,120, which is equal to the total league budget for each pool.