Mike updates his bid limits based on the latest news from around the league.
Finally, after months of arguing about awards, arguing about Hall of Famers, watching the football playoffs out of sheer boredom, watching the NCAA men’s basketball tournament out of sheer boredom, and arguing about Kris Bryant’s service time, we’re almost there. Three days from now, the Cardinals and Cubs will kick off the regular season in Sunday night primetime, and once again all will be right with the world.
We are close enough to the start of the season that most of the adjustments in this update are on the bottom end guys. For home leagues that are more traditional and auction this weekend (or next weekend), this is the list I want to be able to use with confidence. I’m not looking to make significant changes, so there are only going to be a few players listed below who are above the $10 bid threshold who I will actually write a little blurb about below.
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Mike updates his recommended bid limits based on the latest news.
The third update of my fantasy auction values brings another set of dollar values to look at, this time from the expert Tout Wars auctions, which were held this past weekend in New York City. Having a troika of expert auctions to look at gives us even more expert opinions to look at, and gives me yet another opportunity to move my prices up or down based on events at the auctions.
This isn’t the only reason I move my prices up or down, of course. Breaking news can also influence my bid limits for better or worse. This isn’t an exercise in being reactive to every little tidbit of news coming out of Florida or Arizona but rather an opportunity to adjust prices based on larger scale news.
Mike updates his recommended bids based on expert auctions and recent news.
Below is the second update of my fantasy bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues for auction formats. Listed below are the players whose prices have been shifted by two dollars or more in either direction. In most cases, I moved my prices up or down based on the results from the CBS and LABR NL and AL-only auctions in late February and early March. I may be all hot and bothered by Anthony Gose, but if his price is sitting in the mid-single digits in AL-only, there is little if any reason that I should be pushing him to $13. On the other hand, the purpose of this exercise isn’t solely to adjust bid limits based on what players went for in LABR. I want to express a preference, not merely follow the herd.
Adjustments below are for AL and NL only in the case of significant players whose value moved up or down by two dollars or more in either direction. Appropriate mixed bid adjustments will be reflected in the table at the bottom of this article.
Mike's first set of suggested prices for players in auctions this year.
Welcome to the first installment of Baseball Prospectus’ 2015 bid prices for “standard” Rotisserie-style formats.
In the tables below, you will find my recommended bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues. For AL and NL-only, the presumed settings are 12 teams, $260 budgets per team, 14 hitters, and nine pitchers. For mixed leagues, we have switched from 12 teams to 15 teams this year for our bid lists; otherwise, the parameters are the same as they are for the mono leagues. Additionally, Baseball Prospectus will also be rolling out draft rankings in straight list form in the near future for mixed leaguers. The bids are not predictions of what these players will do, but rather suggested prices. While most of what I expect these players to do is based on projected statistics and values, other factors play a role in the bid prices. These factors include:
Mike makes some tweaks based on expert-league bids entering the final weekend of the offseason.
Last weekend, Tout Wars held their AL, NL, and mixed-league auctions. This was the final series of expert league auctions this year, and offered yet another set of price points to contemplate before we all head off to our own home league auctions this coming weekend. Listed below are the significant adjustments I made based on the prices in the Tout Wars auctions in the AL and NL-only formats.
Notes on the updated price tags as Mike prepares for Tout Wars.
It’s auction season, and tomorrow morning I’ll be competing against the some of the best and brightest in NL Tout Wars. Here are this week’s significant movers and shakers; next week I will make adjustments based on news, but also on auctions trends and spending in all three Tout Wars formats.
In advance of his foray into Tout Wars, Mike explains how he'd adjust his values for OBP leagues and unveils this week's update.
In eight days, I’ll be participating in my fifth Tout Wars expert league auction (on the National League side of the fence). However, this will be the first year we will be using on-base percentage—instead of batting average—as a category.
The attached spreadsheet offers my adjusted bid values for on base percentage leagues. More than the changes, what will probably jump out to readers is how few players’ values changed in both leagues. Forty-five NL hitters saw a change in value, while 38 AL hitters were moved up or down. Given that 125 AL hitters and 118 NL hitters saw a value change of $1 or more in 2013, shouldn’t there be more fluctuation in my bid limits for OBP?
Updated bid prices based on recent developments, and answers to some frequently asked questions.
Last week, I unveiled my Rotisserie-style, 5x5 bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues (all 12 teams) for 2014 at Baseball Prospectus. I also presented some very rudimentary guidelines for how to use these bids. While these guidelines are helpful, there are always some frequently asked questions that come up every year that I would be remiss if I didn’t address.
Why use bid limits at all?
There are a few schools of thought that make a strong case against using bid limits. Earlier this week at KFFL, Lawr Michaels of Mastersball wrote a terrific piece arguing against using bid limits at all. A few years ago, Chris Liss of Rotowire wrote an equally terrific piece arguing against both bid limits and projections. This is the part of the program where you might expect me to vigorously pound my chest and passionately argue against Michaels and Liss and conclusively prove that they are idiots.
This year's initial values for mixed and league-specific 5x5 formats, plus answers to some frequently asked questions.
Welcome to the first installment of Baseball Prospectus’ 2014 bid prices for “standard” Rotisserie-style formats.
In the tables below, you will find my recommended bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues. For all three formats, the presumed settings are 12 teams, $260 budgets, 14 hitters, and nine pitchers. The bids are not predictions of what these players will do, but rather suggested prices. While most of what I expect these players to do is based on projected statistics and values, other factors play a role in the bid prices. These factors include:
Mike adjusts his bid limits based on the latest injury news and the players' Tout Wars price tags.
Between some of my reactions to the prices at Tout Wars and a long list of injury news, it was an incredibly busy week for pricing updates. Below is a list of the most significant changes made this week.
A slew of injury updates and a few uncertain closer scenarios take center stage in the latest auction values update.
Next weekend, Jason Collette, Paul Singman, and I will be representing Baseball Prospectus in Tout Wars. Jason will be in the AL-only pool, Paul will handle the mixed format, and I will tackle the NL-only side. Just like with LABR, there will be plenty of updates based on how the experts profess their opinions with their bid prices.
For now, let’s get right into this week’s updates...
Matt Kemp moves up and fellow Dodger Carl Crawford moves down, among many other shifts in this week's update.
Last Monday, I examined how the bidding in the AL-only LABR auction impacted some of my bids. This week, it’s the National League’s turn (although I do have a handful of notes about the American League based on injury news).