CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Vote in the Internet Baseball Awards for a chance at a free copy of Dollar Sign on the Muscle
Voting ends in 1 day and 8 hours

Don't Believe the Hype 

Search Don't Believe the Hype

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns


Article Types

No Previous Column Entries No More Column Entries

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

May 13, 2011 9:36 am

Don't Believe the Hype: The Unlikely Heroes


Marc Normandin

Though there was a considerable amount of unhappy news for fantasy owners from impact players last week, there was still happy news from a couple of unlikely sources. But whose gains are here to stay?

It's tough to argue with this week's drops—Kendrys Morales is out for at least six months thanks to surgery to remove scar tissue from his foot, Chris Young elected to have surgery to repair the shoulder that has knocked him out three years running, and Dallas Braden is having a similar procedure done on his own noodle. Nick Hundley is next up for most drops in the past week, but let's think about this for a moment: He is a catcher who can avoid embarrassing himself at the plate, and there are not nearly enough of those. You don't want to cut him because he will be out for a few weeks. As for the most popular adds of the week…

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds (63 percent owned, +29 percent)
Bailey is the kind of pitcher who, by year's end, will be in the 90s for ownership in mixed leagues. That seems odd to say for a hurler with a career ERA of 4.91, but there are some extenuating circumstances that have made people forget just how good Bailey is supposed to be.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

Cancel anytime.

That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Welcome Eric Hosmer to the bigs, say no to a certain National, and multiple ways to replace your gimpy third baseman

The top five players added this week are all ones we haven't seen in this space before, and they combine for a diverse set of skills. The most-dropped players are once again an obvious set: Matt Harrison, who (predictably) stinks again, tops the list, and he is followed by players such as David Freese (surgery), Travis Wood (bumped from a job), and Chris Narveson (gravity). You can make the case for keeping Narveson in NL-only leagues due to his strikeouts, but otherwise, let him walk.

Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals (75 percent owned, +32 percent)
Aviles has third base eligibility and has hit well as of late—with the bottom falling out of the third base market due to injuries in the past week-plus, it's no wonder he has seen a significant uptick in ownership.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

April 29, 2011 9:17 am

Don't Believe the Hype: Barney and Friends


Marc Normandin

Marc isn't buying everything the waiver wire is selling, but there are a few potential gems here worth unearthing.

Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies (67 percent owned, +47 percent)
Madson, in the eyes of many including our own Mike Petriello, was the closer of choice in Philadelphia back before the season began, but it seems as if the Phillies have done everything in their power short of giving Danys Baez the job in order to keep it from Madson. Now that Jose Contreras is down with his own injury, Madson finally has the gig thanks to the fine quality of being the last man standing.

Madson has struck out 9.9 batters per nine with a 4.1 K/BB ratio since 2009 (140 1/3 innings pitched), has a 2.95 Run Average in that stretch, and has even finished 52 games without the world ending, so instead of asking yourself if you should acquire him until Lidge comes back, you should be asking why Charlie Manuel waited this long to give him the gig in the first place. Based on the way he uses relievers—did I mention Danys Baez is involved?—it's probably not because he prefers Madson in a relief ace role.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

April 22, 2011 10:22 am

Don't Believe the Hype: Leaving on a Jed Plane


Marc Normandin

If Jed Lowrie is already snapped up in your league, here are some other names who could help, and some that won't.

If you have been paying any attention at all, the most added player of the week should be obvious. In fact, you may be missing your opportunity to add him just by taking the time to read this. Once again, the adds outweigh the drops, though Joe Nathan and Ryan Franklin, without save opportunities, deserve to be cut loose, at least in the short term.

Jed Lowrie, Boston Red Sox (81 percent owned, +52 percent)

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

April 15, 2011 9:00 am

Don't Believe the Hype: Buyer Beware


Marc Normandin

Justin Masterson and Willie Bloomquist are still who they always were, but there are a handful of early-season gems worth grabbing.

We are hitting the point in the season where some drops are starting to come in large doses: Manny Ramirez's retirement caused him to be dropped in 66 percent of leagues (though, for some reason, 13 percent of leagues still have him), Rafael Furcal's injury forced 22 percent of owners to make a cut, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, despite still having a job, was cut by 17 percent of owners who are as tired of watching him pitch as I am. I can't argue with any of those moves, so let's once again focus on the happier side of things and talk about the most-added players.

Chris Narveson, Milwaukee Brewers (68 percent owned, +48 percent)

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

No Previous Column Entries No More Column Entries